Knicks Morning News (2023.10.05)

So far I’ve made two “bold” predictions:
-Julius will have his best season
-Grimes will get “Most Improved” consideration

Time for another one:

RJ Barrett will have a positive BPM

This will be due nearly entirely to higher efficiency on the offensive end. His usage will drop to 24% or so. His shot profile will see a slight shift from 3-10 ft to 0-3 ft. He will increase his shooting percentate in the 3-10ft range from 40% to between 42-46%.He will get his 3pt% up into the 33-37% range. This will result in a TS% over .550 and an eFG% of over .500, with how much over depending on where in thos ranges he falls. I’m also expecting a slight uptick in his steals per 36…he was at a career low last year so more of a regression to the mean than anything else. There might be a slight uptick in his rebound and assist rates as well.

Why do I think this?
1) I think what we saw in the playoffs was real…and what the future for RJ looks like. Nothing he did looked flukey or unsustainable, and it was against two of the stronger defenses in the NBA.
2) Playing more minutes vs. opposing benches will help, including his backup PF minutes
3) He will be directly competing for minutes with Josh Hart, particularly in closing lineups

I still think there will be that maddening inconsistency that has plagued him his first 4 years. But I expect that the pattern will look more like the playoffs…where he had 7 plus games and 4 minus games, rather than the 50-50ish pattern in the past.

“There seems to be an idea percolating that people who think it might not be a bad idea to try to acquire the 9 BPM guy think Leon should call Daryl Morey and say “name your price, I’ll meet it.””

Funny, I don’t recall that idea percolating at all. Is that really how you are reading things? It’s as silly as saying that the “no” camp wouldn’t even trade Mitch for Embiid straight up.

The idea I see percolating is that after the process (npi) you describe, the price will be enormous. For f–k’s sake, Daryl Morey won’t even budge off of his asking price trade the cancer known as James Harden.

I recommend trying this exercise:

1) think about the absolute 100% maximum offer you would make for Embiid, taking into account that a) Embiid is under contract for a couple more years and b) there will be lots of competition for him

2) think about whether Morey would accept that offer

I posited that the absolute minimum that most feel Morey would accept value-wise would be something like Mitch, RJ, IQ, Grimes and at least 3 unprotected picks, plus additional draft capital in the form of protected picks or pick swaps. That’s consistent with what is being bantered around on the web. If you take out a player, the draft pick haul would need to increase accordingly. True to your kind explanation of the bargaining process, Morey might ask for way more than that initially, and then negotiate down to that point, but so what? The question becomes, if that’s the rockbottom price, would you pay it or not?

Seems like you and others would pay it. Is that not correct? Then please, correct me. What is the price you would pay? Go on the record. And feel free to ask me and others whether we would pay a given price that you think is realistic and fair.

For the record, I wouldn’t go as high as the above price under any circumstances. The most I would offer is something like Mitch, IQ, Fournier, 2 unprotected picks and either a protected pick or a pick swap. Morey is surely going to say no to that, right? And I’m guessing that the gap between his price and what I would be willing to pay is so large that any quibbling (e.g. throw in a couple of seconds or a swap) isn’t going to get a deal done, no matter how much back and forth there is.

And it’s not because I disagree with Morey’s price. It’s because I don’t see any chance of a championship in the aftermath of a deal of that magnitude even with a healthy, non-declining Embiid, certainly none that outweighs the chance for saddling the Knicks a future-killing albatross contract without draft picks to even tank for.

At least a team like PHX who went all in on Durant could trade Booker to recoup draft capital and assets if it backfired. Same with Minny and Gobert (Towns.) I don’t believe we have that guy that beings back a king’s ransom in a trade on our roster. Not Brunson. Not Randle. No one.

It’s just an opinion….not an insult…to take either position. There certainly isn’t a reason to mischaracterize the argument, or to explain the bargaining process as if the “no”s aren’t aware of how things work (at least when Steve Mills is not on the Knicks’ end of the phone.)

“Okay well now we’re back at “Leon’s plan sucked from the jump.” If we don’t have enough assets to make a superstar trade without completely eviscerating the team, then our stack of assets is really not very impressive. Which means we’ll be essentially trying to internally improve our way to a title. Which seems like it has a low probability of working.”

Yeah, 3 years into a plan that started with what THFH called to worst roster in the NBA that was projected to finish last our of 30 teams, the plan has been so shitty that the team won 47 games, finished in the final 8, has no players in a deep, solid rotation over age 28, no one on anything close to a max deal, all of its own first rounders, and 4 additional firsts with varying protections.

WHAT A TERRIBLE PLAN!!!

Nah, I’ll side with the majority of “serious” pundits that have come around to praising where the team stands right now compared to where it started.

I’m not going to trash the pile of assets based on how it stands relative to acquiring one specific player, who will happen to be on the wrong side of thirty and just exited the playoffs prematurely (again!) on a chronically gimpy knee. If it doen’t happen because Leon thinks the price is too high and doesn’t seem to leave enough to justify the risk on that particular player, I’ll be just fine with it, and thankful that the dream of a possible all-in trade is still alive and well, and that in the interim we have a young, exciting, rootable team that has a good chance to win every night and to make a run in the playoffs. Which is a lot better than I felt three years ago when the Nets had KD, Kyrie and Harden and we didn’t have jack shit.

“There was a direct quote in the post you quoted in which my position was characterized as “we must trade everything for Embiid.””

I thought you would be able to interpret that I was referring to the offer that would likely be required after negotiation. Since you had quoted Macri and seemed to agree with him, he characterized the offer as “enormous.” Please forgive me for whatever you interpreted the difference between “enormous” and “everything” to be.

Anyway, we now have more specificity as to what you would give up, so whatever.

Probably the best analog to the price for Embiid is the Kevin Durant trade to the Suns. They gave up an enormous haul for a 35yo player, and now have a big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal, with nothing left in the tank. If I were a Suns fan, I’d be very bummed about that Durant trade, even though it theoretically improves their chances of a championship in the very short run. But hey, that’s just me!

I think the Suns have a very good chance for the WC finals and a lousy chance to go beyond that.

But even if they win a chip, Mikal is the kind of player who I would never want to see playing for another team. I totally underestimated him at draft time, and now he’s one of my very favorite players.