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72 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.03.09)”
[Carried over from the old thread, re: whether Dallas should tank now that Luka is probably going to miss some games with this injury]
The Kyrie situation really complicates it for them, though. If the team just implodes, I imagine Kyrie would bolt to LA or some other team, if there’s any kind of market for him at all. Then you’ve lost by far the best player you’ve ever paired with Luka, plus the assets you traded to get him, all for a pretty damn low chance at getting Victor or Scoot? (Dallas is thirteen games behind the Hornets. At best — and it would require falling past a whole lot of teams — they are getting into the familiar Frankie Smokes/Kevin Knox range of the lottery that we know and loathe so well.)
That seems incredibly dangerous to me, especially since Dallas has never been a FA destination, so the cap space Kyrie’s departure opens up wouldn’t be as valuable to them as it would be to the Heat or the Lakers.
This Mavs pick is becoming pretty interesting….
My guess is Luka is out for at least 2 weeks if they’re getting an MRI.
They have 6 games in the next 2 calendar weeks – 3 against Memphis (possibly would’ve been favorites in those games if Ja is out), and 1 each against Spurs, Lakers, and Warriors. If they go 2-4 in those games, it’s quite possible they fall into the back half of the play-in (I don’t see any chance they fall out of the play-in since everyone beyond that is seemingly trying to lose now). They might honestly go 1-5 with the only win coming against the Spurs.
Then even if Luka comes back — it’s not like they’ve been good or anything even with a fully healthy Luka / Kyrie… could we possibly get a top-15 pick out of this? Maybe, just maybe we could turn that into 3 more crappy future firsts?
Ha – Alan and I on the same page
I do not imagine they can tank — Kyrie will walk for sure after that (unless he’s only about the $ and the full bird rights), and as we’ve shown so many times, who wants to sign a FA contract with a tanking team? (And honestly, who would want to sign with a team that has messed things up so badly the last few years? Literally every move (and in the case of Brunson, non-move) has been a disaster — well other than the most important one, which is the trade that landed them Luka).
I would never dare disagree with my unofficial doctor, Frank.
It’s funny to think that both Dirk and Luka were acquired on draft night trades. Trae Young is at least an All-Star-caliber player, even if he’s not in Luka’s class. Imagine being the Bucks, who traded Dirk for Robert freakin’ Traylor. And, to add insult to injury, they added their other first rounder that year, Pat Garrity, whom the Mavs turned around and traded for Steve Nash! (That Dallas later screwed up and let Nash leave for Phoenix is another, Brunson-esque matter.)
Anyone know about Brunson tonight?
I know you were all rooting for the Cavs to lose, but i was rooting for them to win because it was against Miami and that’d give us more chances to be top6. So with the Cavs win we’re 2.5 games behind them, but otoh we’re 4 games ahead of Miami. If we don’t go worse than 7-8 the rest of the way, and i’d be disappointed with that finish, Miami would have to go 11-4 to catch us. I think our top6 spot is getting more and more probable every day.
Just caught up on yesterday’s thread and honestly I’m a little disappointed y’all know so much about the Orlando Magic’s backcourt.
I think that the Mav’s will either sign Kyrie or sign and trade him to LA. The only other viable option for them to acquire any talent this year would be a top ten draft pick.
Bobby Marks, meanwhile, already speculating on what the Bulls could do if Lonzo’s injury is a career-ender. Man.
I still have a candle lit for Kyrie to the Knicks, even though I know all you MFs are trying to blow it out.
I feel so sorry for Lonzo. He was really starting to come into his own as a good player. I remember there was legit debate here about us going after him as a free agent two years ago.
I do NOT feel sorry for the Mavs though, LOL. Man, how sweet would it be if we end up with the 11th pick.
Absolutely wild to think about the fact that Cuban could have signed Randle that off season to pair with Luka and not done the KP trade and how different their situation (and ours) would be if that had happened.
They would have one of the best duos in the league and would have had all the picks in the world to build around those two.
Like, honestly, Cuban should get GM of the year…for the Knicks! HAHAHAHA!!!
For some reason I found this sentence from the Bleacher Report article on Luka’s injury amusing:
“When Dončić is sidelined, Irving, Frank Ntilikina and Justin Holiday are relied upon to step up and help fill the scoring void.”
Hawkeye coming to the NBA next year. Which I support.
I have to say, there was so much anger about VAR in the Premier League, but it’s actually worked out very well. They have managed to get to decisions a little bit faster and they get things right now, which is important.
I really hope Ball can play again, but it sounds like a long shot at this point
Lol, this is why unprotected picks are so valuable. Mavs could win the lottery. Please transfer, Mavs pick 🙏
Yea..tough break for Lonzo. But I’m SO glad we didn’t land him. He would have definitely crumbled under Thibs’ fitness demands and minutes allocation. One things for sure- if he makes it back, it won’t be as a PG or primary ball handler. He’ll have to be a 3&D SG who can be a top secondary ball handler. Most likely anyways.
Moses Brown- I’ve wanted him on this team for a little over a year. But it’s definitely bad timing, unless the FO is anticipating one of our centers moving in the offseason. He’s a good project to hold on to.
If Luka misses serious time…we probably have to worry about the top-10 protections. Dallas is just two back in the loss column of the four teams with identical records who currently project to get the 8-12 picks.
Could come down to the wire with either the ideal outcome at #11 or the heartbreak.
If we don’t get the Mav’s pick this year, what do we get?
The Mavs pick top-10 protected through 2025, otherwise a 2025 2nd
So we’ve got 2 more years, it’s just too easy imagining a Luka led team generating a pick in the late 20s. This is our best chance to land a high pick from them.
I can’t believe there is video of Shawn Kemp shooting his gun in a parking lot just floating around the internet. This world is wild.
Dallas has the 6th easiest schedule remaining, plus 3 games against the potentially Ja-less Grizz
Career ending injury? I feel bad for the kid. He had to put up with high expectations (“the hometown saviour” in LA), the circus his father brings along, and then he was a bust, to finally make a decision to change, come to Chicago and start making his mark. All looked promising at this point, but then he got injured. Just bad luck all around for him. Well, at least he was able to secure a big payday before this.
I don’t think Dallas is going to tank even if things start to look bad, because there’s now 4 more tankers to add to the 5 all season tankers (Detroit, Houston, San Antonio, Charlotte and Orlando). The new 4 are Indiana, Chicago, Utah and OKC. They are all at least 3 wins behind Dallas, and they’ll control their position, so if Dallas starts to lose, they’ll be losing too. The best Dallas can do is probably be 10th, but is it worth it? One team behind them jumps to top4 and they’ll be handing a 11th pick to the Knicks? Doesn’t make sense.
I’m not sure the Bulls are tanking, they’re only 1 game out of the play-in & just beat Denver by 20
Indy, somehow, is only 2 back
Trying to figure out what I actually want to happen when I want the Cavs to lose and the Heat to lose to secure the best play-off position, and I want the Mavs to sort of win and the Wizards to sort of win to optimise the draft pick conveys, coupled with the fact that the Knicks play the Heat twice, Cavs once, Wizards once, Dallas plays the Heat, Cavs play the Heat and Wizards, and on top of that Wizards, OKC, NO, and Portland all figure into the Mavs equation (as TNFH pointed out) with all these teams playing each other is making my head spin.
So I think I will just root for the Knicks to go 15-0 the rest of the way. Less need of a draft pick this year if that happens.
I wondervwhat E’s take on the Mav’s situation is.
All this injury news gives me a better appreciation for Julius. Is there a star whos more durable than him in the league?
the draft looks particularly bad this year after the top 2… there’s going to be some interesting names scattered around… i like maxwell lewis… kris murray… brice sensabaugh…. dariq whitehead if you subscribe to the injury impacting his play… but that’s sort of it… if cam whitmore is really falling we should absolutely trade whatever we need to nab him…
if they didn’t keep last year’s pick in last year’s draft which was sort of the same… i don’t think the dallas pick and where it lands is going to matter much either….
If Doncic is out for awhile Kyrie is going to have to have some HUGE games to carry that no defense no depth team. They better hope for some occasional hot streaks from THJr. The other thing is that Doncic being hurt and unable to work out is dangerous in the weight/fitness department. That man likes to eat. When he comes back he may look like Eddy Curry. I hope they don’t totally melt down.
Strat – I believe today is your day for a Porzingis victory lap
“All this injury news gives me a better appreciation for Julius. Is there a star whos more durable than him in the league?”
Yeah, that’s an underrated plus. I know I tend to underrate it.
Yeah, that’s an underrated plus. I know I tend to underrate it.
Not bad for someone who started his NBA career missing 81 of his first 82 games due to injury
“Strat – I believe today is your day for a Porzingis victory lap”
That man is turning into a efficiency machine with developing passing skills. Imagine if he had two good legs and his development wasn’t interrupted so many times.
On the flip side Frank still looks like a deer in a headlight. I feel bad for him. You now how much I value his defense, ball movement and unselfish play, ability to switch etc… but his confidence level is still lower than most rookies and this year he can’t shoot a 3 into the ocean. It looks like his NBA career might be over. I think his impact has been underrated, but you can’t be this bad on offense and have this little confidence at this stage. Can’t get them all right…not in horses or basketball.
Just like Wiggins, there’s no victory lap on Porzingis, sorry. Time matters, and teams can’t wait 4 seasons before having a max player start producing at the level he should have been producing to justify a max contract. And i still don’t think he should be on a max contract, even with the improvement he made this season. On the Knicks pov, we got Randle instead of him, at a lower cost, would anyone want to make a swap?
We’re gonna get so many protected draft picks
But seriously, it does make a big difference. The Mavs are a game back of the Heat for the pick to be 20th, i don’t know the draft at all but I imagine there’s some talent gap there.
Even a dumb move like the incineration trade should result in top-11 protection rather than top-19 protection.
There’s potentially more opportunities to trade down if a team becomes infatuated with a player too. Not every trade will be as controversial as last year’s OKC trade (but hopefully it’s a trade with a non-Presti/Ujiri/Kleiman/Ainge).
LOL, you’ll probably right, but i think there’s a good chance Leon came to the same conclusion as us here at KB – we’re only ONE move away. So if it’s just one move, he doesn’t need so much draft picks as before. I think this season we’ll use the pick(s).
Can we do bottom pick protections on draft picks?
Like for example, we trade our 11th for one or more mediocre teams’ 2024 pick, bottom 57 protected. Most likely they keep their picks, but if they’re horrible we win the lotto.
You can, don’t know if any team would do it.
Average pick outcomes look logarithmic, so even a couple slots at the top of the draft is a significant risk for a team (at 19 the CHA pick has a relatively flat expected value even if it does convert in a higher slot).
Maybe you could get top-4 protected and 30-15 protected converting to two 2nds, or something along those lines.
This was the Pelicans pick last year:
1-4: Goes to the Pelicans
5-14: Goes to the Blazers
15-30: Goes to the Hornets
While I do think we are potentially one big move away from being contenders or at least fringe contenders, it would be REALLY nice to add one more good prospect who turns into a decent rotation piece with this draft.
Obi is most likely not working out for us long term and is probably included in whatever trade we eventually make for a star or elite role player Mikal/OG type. So a backup PF seems in order.
But one more player to add on the RJ, Grimes, IQ, Mitch, McBride timeline would be nice.
Kostya Medyedovsky (inventor of DARKO) just added DPM-salary conversions to his model. Right now (it’ll be modified a bit in the coming weeks) DPM values JB $29.5m at (#39 overall), Mitch at $29m overall (43rd), IQ at $26.5m (54th overall!!), and Randle, somewhat implausibly, at $20m overall (75th).
Assuming for a second that DPM is a pretty good stat and adjusting for the fact the Randle is clearly better than top 75, that means we have 4 top 50ish players, one of whom still has significant upside. That’s really good! It also means that if DPM is capturing IQ’s value correctly, then extending him at 20m per is a relative bargain even if he never improves. That’s also really good!
See the link here (it’s only put in the spreadsheet, not the online app yet):
So I’m to believe Quickley is right now more valuable than Domantas “Baby Jokic” Sabonis, he who puts up 20/13/7 on 67% TS?
I’m a huge fan of Mitch and even i know Mitch at 29M AAV would be a clear mistake! 😛
Keep forgetting Rokas exists wonder if the teams wants to bring him over next year.
No tank for Dallas!
Kristaps Porzingis is an excellent basketball player, but rather than re-litigate him in particular let’s just have it be a lesson in the importance of patience.
i might get shot for saying this buuuut…. but without the history … KP as the third banana isn’t the most terrible idea…
i miiiight prefer that over Lavine… altho i’m grimacing a bit while thinking about either.. and btw with the Ball news we will now for sure be inundated with Lavine rumors this summer so brace yourselves…
You guys see Van Vleet’s epic rant last night about the refs? Can’t wait to see the amount he’s gonna get fined.
In theory Lavine would be a great fit, his offensive numbers are pretty insane. But defense and most importantly his health would be the problem not to mention the cost it would take to acquire him.
How can you have 7 years of patience? That’s not compatible with building a winning team. It’s insane to call KP a good pick given the time that it took for him to be productive. Now what DJ is saying is another story, if he’s productive now, any team that trades for him or sign him in FA, might be making a good gamble.
KP putting it together in year 4, opting out, cashing in, and falling apart on his next contract was always the likeliest outcome.
We still won that trade in a landslide.
I think Mitch’s defense is so good that he’s easily worth 20+m, since I think he’s maybe one of the five or ten best defenders in the league (he ranks top 10-25 in every defensive stat, but he’s clearly more valuable than a lot of the wing guys listed ahead of him, especially to a team like ours.) If he is a top 10 defender in the league and a very useful–albeit limited–offensive player (due to his OREB and his efficiency) I think there’s a good argument to be made that he’s worth way more than his contract AAV.
Of course, the salary valuations are ignoring market forces–such as demands for wings that drives up their price relative to their value, and the comparatively low demand for rim running bigs, which drives down their market value relative to their “true” productivity. So while 30m for Mitch in the “real world” is way above his de facto value, his value by the lights of DPM may be accurate in another sense.
I don’t want KP, he’s going to be paid for more than he produces, and he’s a C that is bad at defense, exactly what we need from our Cs. I don’t like Lavine a lot for the same cause, defense, but we’ve been performing great with a bad defender in RJ, so if he comes to take his place, we can be much improved with the swap. It depends on what we have to give up to get him.
weird how we’re having this conversation after a career night instead of the Porzingisian 11-29 he chucked up on Sunday afternoon
when it is the just man who strikes you, you should thank him
Again, Lavine will be making $43mil next year and beyond, with cellophane knees… Not at any price does he make sense
so i think the interesting part of the discussion is if you go a bit further… KP has a po this offseason and he’s most def exercising that… so if we were to theoretically go after him… it would be a sign and trade.. and that sign and trade probably has to include Mitch because he’d be replacing him and to match salary you’d have to include someone like RJ f.. it could also be Fournier and Obi or some others but I think RJ makes more sense…
if the deal is Mitch and RJ that probably requires very minimal pick attachments if any at all.. which is what makes it enticing because you could still go after a big fish should one become available….
now that might not even be an upgrade once it’s all said and done which is why it’s kind of iffy…. but i think we should be considering all our options that are actually available since most of the best ones are in the hope and pray camp….
We are not one step away. Play the 2-3 steps away please Leon.
Hard no on Mitch for KP.
It’s nice that he’s finally become almost as good as Randle, but he hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2017.
Mitch impacts winning. KP does not. Plus, I like Mitch a lot better.
this is on ESPN (2023 mock)
1. Detroit Pistons
Victor Wembanyama | Metropolitans 92 | PF/C | Age: 19.1
2. Houston Rockets
Scoot Henderson | G League Ignite | PG | Age: 19.0
3. San Antonio Spurs
Brandon Miller | Alabama | SF | Age: 20.2
4. Charlotte Hornets
Amen Thompson | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 20.0
5. Orlando Magic
Ausar Thompson | Overtime Elite | SG/SF | Age: 20.0
6. Indiana Pacers
Jarace Walker | Houston | PF | Age: 19.5
7. Utah Jazz
Nick Smith Jr. | Arkansas | PG/SG| Age: 18.8
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
Cam Whitmore | Villanova | SF/PF | Age: 18.6
9. Orlando Magic (from Chicago)
Keyonte George | Baylor | SG | Age: 19.3
10. Portland Trail Blazers
Anthony Black | Arkansas | PG/SG | Age: 19.1
11. Washington Wizards
Gradey Dick | Kansas | SG/SF | Age: 19.2
12. New Orleans Pelicans
Jalen Hood-Schifino | Indiana | PG/SG | Age: 19.7
13. Los Angeles Lakers
Cason Wallace | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 19.3
14. Atlanta Hawks
Taylor Hendricks | UCF | PF | Age: 19.2
15. Toronto Raptors
Jett Howard | Michigan | SG/SF | Age: 19.4
16. Utah Jazz (from Minnesota)
Rayan Rupert | New Zealand Breakers | SG/SF | Age: 18.6
17. Miami Heat
Kyle Filipowski | Duke | PF/C | Age: 19.3
18. Golden State Warriors
Brice Sensabaugh | Ohio St. | SF/PF | Age: 19.3
19. New York Knicks (from Dallas)
Kris Murray | Iowa | PF | Age: 22.5
20. Houston Rockets (from LA Clippers)
Dereck Lively II | Duke | C | Age: 19.0
21. Brooklyn Nets
Kobe Bufkin | Michigan | PG/SG | Age: 19.4
22. Brooklyn Nets (from Phoenix)
Leonard Miller | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 19.2
23. Sacramento Kings
Jordan Hawkins | Connecticut | SG | Age: 20.8
24. Memphis Grizzlies
Maxwell Lewis | Pepperdine | SF | Age: 20.5
25. Portland Trail Blazers (from New York)
James Nnaji | Barcelona | C | Age: 18.5
26. Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland)
Colby Jones | Xavier | SF | Age: 20.7
27. Utah Jazz (from Philadelphia)
Gregory Jackson II | South Carolina | PF/C | Age: 18.2
28. Indiana Pacers (from Boston)
Noah Clowney | Alabama | PF | Age: 18.6
29. Charlotte Hornets (from Denver)
Dariq Whitehead | Duke | SG/SF | Age: 18.5
30. LA Clippers (from Milwaukee)
Trayce Jackson-Davis | Indiana | PF/C | Age: 23.0
31. Detroit Pistons
Sidy Cissoko | G League Ignite | SG/SF | Age: 18.9
32. Indiana Pacers (from Houston)
Kel’el Ware | Oregon | C | Age: 18.8
33. San Antonio Spurs
Dillon Mitchell | Texas | PF | Age: 19.4
34. Charlotte Hornets
Terquavion Smith | NC State | SG | Age: 20.1
35. Orlando Magic
Marcus Sasser | Houston | PG/SG | Age: 22.4
36. Sacramento Kings (from Indiana)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | UCLA | SF | Age: 22.0
37. Charlotte Hornets (from Utah)
Keyontae Johnson | Kansas St. | SF | Age: 22.5
38. Oklahoma City Thunder
Bilal Coulibaly | Metropolitans 92 | SF | Age: 18.6
39. Washington Wizards (from Chicago)
Brandin Podziemski | Santa Clara | SG | Age: 20.0
40. Boston Celtics (from Portland)
Mouhamed Gueye | Washington State | PF/C | Age: 20.3
41. Denver Nuggets (from Washington)
Ricky Council IV | Arkansas | SG/SF | Age: 21.5
42. New Orleans Pelicans
Nikola Durisic | MEGA MIS | SG/SF | Age: 19.0
43. Los Angeles Lakers
Coleman Hawkins | Illinois | PF | Age: 21.2
44. Portland Trail Blazers (from Atlanta)
Jalen Wilson | Kansas | SF/PF | Age: 22.3
45. San Antonio Spurs (from Toronto)
Zach Edey | Purdue | C | Age: 20.8
46. Memphis Grizzlies (from Minnesota)
Adem Bona | UCLA | C | Age: 19.9
47. Boston Celtics (from Miami)
Julian Phillips | Tennessee | SF | Age: 19.3
48. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Golden State)
Tristan Vukcevic | Partizan | PF/C | Age: 19.9
49. Denver Nuggets (from Dallas)
Terrence Shannon Jr. | Illinois | SG/SF | Age: 22.6
50. LA Clippers
Reece Beekman | Virginia | PG | Age: 21.4
51. Brooklyn Nets
Andre Jackson | UConn | SG/SF | Age: 21.3
52. Phoenix Suns
Emoni Bates | Eastern Michigan | SG/SF | Age: 19.1
53. Sacramento Kings
Baylor Scheierman | Creighton | SF | Age: 22.4
54. Memphis Grizzlies
Ryan Kalkbrenner | Creighton | C | Age: 21.1
55. Minnesota Timberwolves (from New York)
Jaylen Clark | UCLA | SG/SF | Age: 21.3
56. Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland)
Kobe Brown | Missouri | PF/C | Age: 23.1
57. Washington Wizards (from Boston)
Julian Strawther | Gonzaga | SF | Age: 20.7
58. Milwaukee Bucks
Kevin McCullar Jr. | Kansas | SF | Age: 21.8
Ted Nelson is rolling over in his grave.
Getting antsy for the game thread but also will probably fall asleep before this game starts 😅
Just lost all respect for Zach Lowe, who I liked up to this point. He pulled off a Fox News-worthy analysis of FVV’s ref rant, totally misrepresenting it as being angry at getting teched up during that one game. Flat-out shameful.
And for those who missed it, the last post of the previous thread was me providing a link to the rant:
Also, normally I don’t get wrapped up in the officiating arguments, as it’s often good and bad for both teams and it’s about human error to a large degree etc. ad nauseum. But since some here do, a great screed by FVV that’s going to get him creamed, but good for him:
yea it’s not a very good class this year.. the top guys aren’t playing college which makes things tough to evaluate but what’s left are traditionally late first rd types…. even guys like brandon miller and jarace walker have no business being in the top 5 but they’re popping up because just about all the other top freshmen have failed to distinguish themselves….
there are interesting names scattered about but it’s slim pickings beyond that…
DARKO takes into account previous years, and I think age too, which hurts Randle’s value. His value this year is most likely much higher than DARKO’s evaluation.
I think we should wait and see if KP can actually stay healthy the rest of the season before we have any regrets.
The answer to who can wait 7 years is the Knicks because we sucked for most of the last 7 years.
As long as there is more beef in the NBA than there is on KB, I am happy. And that is definitely the case right now.
I don’t understand DARKO but any system that might jack up IQ’s value is the enemy right now.
Memphis scored 50 in the 1st quarter, only for GS to open the 2nd with a 19-5 run in the first 5 mins. I don’t even know what the score is right now, I can’t count that high that fast. But it’s a lot to a lot.
Brunson good to go if he makes it through warmups. Nice!
Still I can’t imagine us winning, things just have to start going badly soon.