[news.google.com] — Monday, January 9, 2023 7:22:26 AM
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks odds, picks and predictions Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
[news.google.com] — Monday, January 9, 2023 7:14:58 AM
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks odds, picks and predictions Shreveport Times
[news.google.com] — Monday, January 9, 2023 6:56:00 AM
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks odds, picks and predictions USA TODAY Sportsbook Wire
[news.google.com] — Monday, January 9, 2023 3:31:15 AM
Bucks vs. Knicks: Start time, where to watch, what’s the latest Hoops Hype
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 10:00:00 PM
Bucks vs Knicks Odds, Lines & Predictions (Jan. 9) Sports Betting Dime
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 9:34:00 PM
Jalen Brunson making biggest impact in the clutch as Knicks’ closer New York Post
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 9:32:00 PM
Knicks Notes: Toppin, Barrett, Robinson, Hartenstein, Sims, Brunson, Thibodeau hoopsrumors.com
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 8:11:28 PM
Knicks’ Trevor Keels: Shooting struggles continue CBS Sports
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 7:01:02 PM
If the universe is just, the Knicks will beat the Bucks Posting and Toasting
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 6:44:00 PM
Knicks’ Obi Toppin expected to return vs. Bucks, RJ Barrett getting closer New York Post
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 5:47:34 PM
NBA Rumors: This Clippers-Knicks Trade Features Cam Reddish NBA Analysis Network
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 5:00:21 PM
Ja Morant pushes for Knicks’ Jericho Sims inclusion in All-Star Slam Dunk contest Empire Sports Media
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 5:00:00 PM
Hilarious old Tom Thibodeau ESPN clip resurfaces on Knicks Twitter Daily Knicks
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 4:42:14 PM
RJ Barrett’s playing status upgraded ahead of marquee Knicks-Bucks matchup Empire Sports Media
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 4:14:19 PM
Bucks’ Serve Ibaka Remains Out Monday vs. Knicks SportsGrid
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 2:36:00 PM
Bucks’ Serge Ibaka (personal) out for Monday versus Knicks numberFire
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 1:14:59 PM
Report: Knicks’ Obi Toppin, RJ Barrett participate in practice Empire Sports Media
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 11:25:46 AM
Knicks: Julius Randle could earn another All-NBA selection Empire Sports Media
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 11:00:00 AM
NBA: Fans impressed by Luka’s triple-double, think Nets are contenders Bullets Forever
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 10:00:00 AM
The Clippers are big-time buyers and people around the NBA are “scared” Clips Nation
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 10:00:00 AM
Does latest Kemba Walker news mean Knicks-Mavericks trade will happen? Daily Knicks
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 8:18:00 AM
25-year Orlandoversary: Scott’s late 3 caps rally as Magic edge Knicks, 95-94 Orlando Pinstriped Post
[news.google.com] — Sunday, January 8, 2023 8:00:00 AM
Grading key Knicks players through first half of 2022-23 season Daily Knicks
50 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.01.09)”
Cyber I was considering the context of where RJ is right now. The superstar ship has long sailed, and even a Randle/Brunson-level player seems too optimistic. I’m just hoping he outperforms his current contract.
If the Knicks move Hartenstein and make Sims the backup C, I want the team to trade for Ibaka as that 3rd C/PF. I can’t see the team making Hartenstein the 3rd guy after signing him and having big plans for him
Then you’re in agreement with Donnie, that RJ with the numbers he has put up won’t be a star. Superstar is very hard for almost all picks, be it 3rd pick or 2nd pick, a solid star also seems to not be in the cards for RJ, but i’m definitely still expecting a flawed star just like… Randle and Brunson. And to outperform his contract, which we all hope he does, he’ll need to be at their level. We’ll see if he gets there. If he can, and we can grab a player like OG on a fair deal (not OG, probably, because Masai and fair deals don’t get along well), we might have a team like the 2004 Pistons that Poindexter was talking about. And even if we only make one or two ECF, i’ll take it. It’s a lot better than what we had to endure in the 2000s and 2010s.
@Poindexter: Leon has flaws, but being impatient is not one of them. I don’t think he’ll trade Hart unless it’s on a deal that brings a very good player back. To move on just because of a disappointing half a season is not Leon’s way of doing things.
ESPN’s NBA odds are so odd, so to speak. In the game against Toronto, per the ESPN preview, the Knicks had significantly better numbers than Toronto as a team and the Knicks were higher in the standings than Toronto. But Toronto was significantly favored. Now for the Bucks game, the Knicks have a significantly worse record, the Knicks team numbers are the same or worse and the Knicks already lost twice to Bucks this season. But the odds are even. Go figure.
But the odds are even. Go figure.
Must be the expected return of Obi…
i think nearly every statistical analysis had the Seahawks beating the Jets 2 weeks ago, ESPN consensus was 62%… yet somehow the line in Seattle was Jets -2.5… ive been trying to read into such things/anomalies as a lifetime gambling loser… it has not worked
I swear those Las Vegas oddsmakers are wizards, every time I see a game that looks like an obvious bet (yesterday there was a ton of $$ on Green Bay covering vs Detroit) it goes the other way. It’s like they set the odds almost as a trap.
So tonight you would think the Bucks without giving any points would attract a lot of action. Just watch the Knicks beat them
@cyber
Facts. But the problem is(and it’s probably because of the way Thibs wants to deploy Hartenstein) with Obi back, this team works better with Sims next to Obi. Really what needs to happen is Thibs needs to use Hartenstein’s skills instead of trying to make him a true defensive anchor and let Sims be the 3rd C/PF. But dammit Sims is too good to sit just like Hartenstein is. I don’t necessarily think Hartenstein has been underwhelming so far, because his play is directly related to Thibs trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. On paper, Hart is the perfect backup compliment to Mitch- Thibs just won’t let him be who he is. Our bench should be out-scoring most of our opponents’ benches if everyone plays to their strengths. It’s frustrating, honestly
Good eye. What’s up with that?
By the way, that third off day is always hilarious. It’s, like, “Dudes, we are out of things to talk about! Get us another game please!”
Julius was talking about the pace thing and credited the slow down with the improved defense.
Out defense is geared towards getting opposing teams to go deep into the shot clock, so that probably accounts for some of the slower pace.
Knicks have a better point differential and SRS than the Bucks.
Hart is playing hurt on limited achilles and didnt miss a single game!
He’s a much better athlete and defensive anchor that what we have seen. The advanced stats from last two years indicate he’s one of the league leaders in both rim protection and guarding the switch PnR ball handler, as well as close outs on 3 point shooters. Just needs to get healthy. Thats all.
Offensively, he’s not being asked to do anything but rebound, hit a corner three and set picks. That’s probably because Thibs and coaching staff know that he’s not physically capable to do a lot more.
Dont know much about this specific achilles injury recovery timeline and process but I would rather rest him for about a month when Obi comes back than have him play at this level all season and into the playoffs.
Luka is having a season. Holy shit. Just saw the Ringer piece. KD and Jokic not bad either.
I do notice though that Tyrese is currently fourth in the league in VORP. Slacker.
As far as I can tell, oddsmakers aren’t looking for the “objectively correct” betting line in the sense that they’re looking for the middle 50% outcome of the game given their models, but rather are looking to balance the weight of money on both sides of the bet, since they have vig on every outcome. I’m sure PTMilo can tell us more, but that’s my impression. Vegas lines often shift just because a lot of money is going one way (e.g., the Knicks-Bucks line has shifted on FanDuel from Knicks +2.5 to Knicks +1, likely because too much money was getting put on the dogs, so Vegas wanted to incentivize some favorite bets to protect their margin. I locked in the Knicks ML tonight at +120 🙂 ) and that would be the incorrect/irrational thing to do if you’re trying to go for the “objectively correct” line and (plausibly) think that public money doesn’t provide valuable information that you, as a bookie, haven’t already incorporated into the line.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/35403093/a-major-nba-trade-deadline-player-hardly-anyone-talking-toronto-raptors
My understanding is that Vegas does chase the objectively correct line. They shift only in response to smart money from people who beat them.
Shifting the line makes them susceptible to teams threading the middle. In the Knicks case, if the Knicks lose by 2 then Vegas could lose both sides.
But more importantly they’re throwing away money if they’re choosing a suboptimal line. If people bet one side heavy and most people are wrong, then they make more money keeping the line where it is.
Mitch is a ‘dangerous man.’ (The Athletic).
For those without a subscription (and to help Brian with the third-day blues):
Robinson averages nine boards a game, an impressive number. Yet, it undersells his work. There’s an argument to be made that no NBA player has more obstacles to fight through just to corral one missed shot.
Teams are swarming him. A higher percentage of his rebounds are contested than any other player in the league, according to the data-tracking tool, Second Spectrum. The trend becomes even more extreme on the offensive end, where 85 percent of his boards come with someone trying to box him out, also the highest figure in the NBA.
It’d be impressive if he owned rebounding numbers that were merely average, given that he’s wrestling down low more than anyone. Yet, he’s second in the NBA in offensive rebound rate, behind only Memphis Grizzlies strongman Steven Adams. It’s the glass-gluttonous equivalent of Stephen Curry heaving 30-foot turnarounds and still finishing amongst the league leaders in 3-point percentage.
And to temper our armchair GMs and the trade chatter, a sobering piece from Hollinger on how the Bulls, Wolves, and Hawks all pushed their (draft) chips in for a star and may not even make the play-in.
(I’ll note that our actual GM, Dred, rarely joins the trade fracas — he’s as quiet as that faker Leon.)
***Then you’re in agreement with Donnie, that RJ with the numbers he has put up won’t be a star.***
To be clear, this conversation began with whether trading RJ for OG Anunoby would be something the Knicks would regret. I never said anything about RJ becoming a star. My premise was that due to RJ Barrett’s “NBA age” (i.e. minutes of on-court experience against the best players in the world) it is a safe bet that he will likely never be as good as OG Anunoby is NOW. Anunoby is not a star, and will likely never make an all star team. He makes $18.5 mil next year which is a reasonable contract given who he is. RJ will be paid $24 mil next year based on projected upside, which doesn’t actually project to be very high due to his abnormally slow development over 7800 minutes.
RJ could still be a star. I haven’t dismissed the possibility. I just think it is a long shot that he becomes a player as useful as even an OG Anunoby caliber player.
Raven, again, it’s not about going all in. It’s about cashing in on some very volatile options (Obi, the Washington pick, the Knicks ’23 pick) while they’re in the money because it’s very likely they’ll be out of the money soon.
Best Knicks-related headline in some time:
‘Jared Jeffries goes insane after winning a brand new compact car on “The Price Is Right”’
I know, Hubie, partly teasing, partly my own discomfort with trade talk, which tends to make me unhappy as I’m more of a fanboi than a GM. I love all my children equally (except when they drive into double-teams and throw the ball away or don’t play D).
On a distantly related note, who here had us at the (almost) halfway point with a better record than the Heat, Warriors, Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Raptors, Trailblazers, and Hawks? Barely, but still…
Out defense is geared towards getting opposing teams to go deep into the shot clock, so that probably accounts for some of the slower pace.
it’s not that. if you break pace down into offense/defense, it’s only our offense that has slowed down. we are 25th in offensive pace, measured in average time-to-shoot, while our defense is 21st or 22 (i.e. allows faster than average shots). we do a good job slowing down fast breaks after opponent rebounds, but allow much faster than average shots after made baskets and turnovers.
i attribute our slower offensive pace after all the early excteiment to two things. first, it wasn’t really helping much. we were pushing the ball, yes, but our efficiency on early shots — even in semi-transition — was way below average. two, obi got hurt and rose got benched. our average time to shoot drops by .72 with obi on the court, which doesn’t sound like a lot but is a lot, and the biggest differential on the team. rose is second. our offensive pace has fallen to tied for last in the nba since obi got hurt in early december. our defensive pace is basically unchanged.
Now we’re talking. He seems to be dominating, and finally we have some stats/analysis to back it up. I was on Mitch island from day 1 and i’m now happy to see he’s being recognized as a very good player.
LOL
I sat next to Jared Jeffries’ girlfriend on Amtrak from DC to Penn Station (3 hours). At first she only hinted that her boyfriend was on the Knicks and didn’t want to tell me who it was, but she unknowingly gave me enough hints that it was easy to figure out. Guess she didn’t understand the amount of Knicks knowledge that I held in my head.
Moral of the story: Even fringe NBA players get the hottest of girlfriends.
It was more of a continent
I’m working diligently behind the scenes
I was born on Mitch Island
tell a random jared jeffries story on the very day when jared jeffries won a car on the price is right without mentioning jared jeffries winning a car on the price is right should be illegal
>i attribute our slower offensive pace after all the early excitement to two things. first, it wasn’t really helping much.<
Randle mentioned something about the change of pace the other day but I can't remember what he said. He was talking about them being more effective in the half court now that they are getting more used to each other, but it was more than that.
i thought only old people, and house keepers who are also old, watch stuff like the Price is Right
Is there any chatter about trading Hart or of management being disappointed in his first half of the season?
I think they are happy with him and would be surprised if they traded him given the reason they signed him to begin with was to give the 2nd unit a different look from Mitch. Sims does not do some of the things Hart can do. The only disappointment I am aware of is from boxscore fans. He’s obviously not off the table in a deal that makes the team better, but I don’t think they are looking to move him.
>On a distantly related note, who here had us at the (almost) halfway point with a better record than the Heat, Warriors, Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Raptors, Trailblazers, and Hawks? Barely, but still…<
IMO, the Lakers have a better starting supporting cast than they are being given credit for. Schroder and Beverley are solid role players with James and Davis and Thomas Bryant looks like he's getting better at C. Maybe Beverley has slowed a little, but he's OK. They could use a little more bench depth, but a healthy James and Davis is very dangerous even with this team. They've been playing better lately, but if they get healthy I could see them really going on a roll and moving up in the standings.
Ess Dog entered Jared Jeffries into the Knickerblogger chat at 15:04.
We aren’t crazy enough to just start randomly talking about Jared Jeffries. I think.
Have we always been on military time?
oh my bad. and geo you don’t know a fucking thing about us zoomers. get bent, as we like to say.
Not great with stats-is pace at all related to offensive rebounding?
On today’s Game Theory pod Sam Vecenie and Adam Spinella were talking about the 2021 draft class. They were absolutely raving about Grimes, and had nice things to say about Deuce and even Sims. Always nice to be validated by (smart) outsiders.
“The only disappointment I am aware of is from boxscore fans.”
I’m not a box score fan but I am a Knicks fan and as I told you the other day when you did this shtick, the Knicks are worse with Hartenstein on the court. Their offense in particular is significantly worse, which is a pretty big red flag considering Hartenstein 1) gets to play against backups and 2) is theoretically more offensively skilled than Mitch.
Yes, Hart can do some things that Mitch and Sims cannot do, but since *we rarely have him do those things* we would probably be better off with a wing in his place.
“…we are 25th in offensive pace, measured in average time-to-shoot, while our defense is 21st or 22 (i.e. allows faster than average shots). we do a good job slowing down fast breaks after opponent rebounds, but allow much faster than average shots after made baskets and turnovers.”
Thanks for the research pt, sort of counterintuitive but the numbers are what they are I guess. I wonder if we give up shots more quickly after made baskets…is it because guys like Brunson (falls down a lot) and Randle (complains to refs) are out of defensive position?
I liked this quote from the Hollinger article:
You can kind of make the case that the Knicks are just building the team.
I see some concerning but likely correctable issues with Hart:
-he’s shooting a very bad 56% from 0-3 feet…like how is that even possible?
-his ast% is miniscule…that might be a Thibs thing…
-he hardly gets fouled…20% FTr vs career .350
It’s only 773 minutes, so I’m fine waiting to see if he pulls those numbers up. Also fine with trading him if other teams covet him. But I wouldn’t dump him or bench him in favor of Sims.
>I’m not a box score fan but I am a Knicks fan and as I told you the other day when you did this shtick, the Knicks are worse with Hartenstein on the court.<
They are worse with Hart on the court because they are so much better with Mitch on the court. If Kareem was the starter, the team would be worse with Mitch on the court. I'm a huge fan of long term on/off over years, but short term is very volatile and dependent on lineup combinations. So it takes a little more analysis to figure out what's going on.
Also, the boxscore cannot and does not tell you what a player's role is, whether he is doing what is asked, and how well he's doing it. People are focusing on his TS% and assists, but IMO that's misleading and missing the whole point.
If Brunson was on the court with John Stockton, his assists would decline sharply, not because he was playing worse or being used incorrectly, but because it's preferable top have the ball in Stockton's hands way more often.
Hart has not shot the ball well, but he's shooting a different shot distribution with a specific goal in mind that's helping the TEAM but also contributing to the lower TS%.
***she unknowingly gave me enough hints that it was easy to figure out.***
She was like “I’m not going to say who he is or what he does for a living, but my boyfriend earns $500,000 per basket.”
(I have forgotten who Downtown Doogie Brown used to post as. May I have a Jeffries Girlfriendesque hint please?)
>-he’s shooting a very bad 56% from 0-3 feet…like how is that even possible?<
That is an interesting stat. I've been thinking about it, but it's not clear.
There's probably some noise.
A very small part could be because he's been told to hit the offensive boards hard (career high per 36) and the shots he's taking off those OREBs may be more contested than the ones he gets in the normal flow of the game.
Some of his floaters (being asked of him to generate more OREBs) may have fallen into the 3 foot range.
He may be facing better defense in his role now than he has historically. He's had 7 starts for us and 6 for the rest of his career (much of it 3rd string garbage time until last year). He may not be as good a finisher in traffic or against tough defense as his former shooting from that range suggested, but I'd give that more time.
He's been playing hurt and may not have the same lift.
***she unknowingly gave me enough hints that it was easy to figure out.***
“He’s so cute — he has these little ears that stick straight out. And he can’t make a layup to save his life.”
I never posted before under any other name. It’s not that I didn’t *want* to post—it’s just that every time I tried to register and I answered super-easy Knicks fandom questions to do so, something about the system wouldn’t let me register back then. So once we had the updated site, I tried again, and it worked.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
As far as whatever Jared Jeffries GF was hinting to me, it barely registered because I was having trouble listening to her. She was pretty stunning.