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54 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.01.06)”
I will start today’s thread off w something that was insinuated in the NYPost today. That OG might not be the only Raptor Leon has his eyes on. Siakam could also be a target (not that Masai is willing to trade him but it does make more sense from a tear down perspective).
So would we do a Spider level package for Pascal? Better fit seemingly. Can he play the 3? Does a lineups of JB, Grimes, Pascal, Jules, Mitch put us in the top 5 in the conference competing for the conference finals for the next 3-4?
Hmmmm
Siakam doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Him playing the 3 is a bit like Obi – maybe possible, but far from ideal. Which means he’d be in Julius’s spot. He’s probably better than Julius, but Julius is WAAAYYY more durable, and availability is a skill. That’s why Julius’s VORP is higher. So why trade for a guy who’s a little better than Julius when we already have Julius and don’t have to back up the truck to get him? And in fact who plays on a cheap contract? No. We need a legit 3, not a no-defense 2 or a frequently injured 4.
Meanwhile, one Quentin Grimes, our Tier 11p SG, was written about in The Athletic. Of note:
His shots are almost exclusively 3s or layups. He’s hitting a top-notch 74 percent of his looks at the rim. He is racking up an assist a little more than once every five drives, which places him in the NBA’s 97th percentile, according to information tracked by Second Spectrum.
And he’s hitting 42% from 3 on 7 per game. Odd that playing the role of defensive stopper hasn’t affected his offense the way it did RJ…
@cgreen – I came here to post my concern about all the trade rumors. It starts with a simple question, who do you jettison from the starting lineup to make a trade? The answer today seems to be RJ.
Is he the weak link? How much worse is he than OG Anunoby? What do we really gain? And at what price? Right now Anunoby is a buy-high candidate and RJ is sell low. I’m just not sure OG’s enough, although I love his game, but at what price?
Great find Rama. Read it. Grimes is pretty exciting. I feel a little one note these days talking about how good Grimes is but it needs to be said. 42% on threes. Good ball distributor. Very good defender.
That is a fantastic package.
RJ is currently extremely worse than OG Anunoby.
The anti-trade crowd doesn’t seem to get it: acquiring OG is a Brunson-level move. Trading IQ for him is not “giving up” on IQ at all.
I love Grimes but over the past few games he hasn’t been a defensive stopper. He got burned time and again by the Spurs, for example.
1 Brunson
2 Barrett / Grimes
3 Anunoby
4 Randle
5 Mitch
This is a very good top 6. It’s not peak 90’s Knicks good, but it’s on par with the best Melo/Chandler team.
From there, we’re only move away, and we would still have plenty of time and assets.
I think we’d have to trade RJ in an OG trade, which I am fine with, as Toronto is the ideal place to send RJ.
I like that lineup, even though it’s not a championship contender. It should at least be a tough out in round 2.
But it sounds like Masai wants a Spida-type package for OG, which is just crazy.
Idk, maybe the trade market is just too much like the real estate market now—overinflated. As such, it probably makes more sense to draft players… and maybe we will?
Look at the Pacers… they drafted 4-year guard Andrew Nembhard (I was a big fan) and he’s now starting for them. And we have enough picks where we could draft both projects and polished upperclassmen to plug in next year.
But will we do it? Unlikely. I think it’s more likely we hunt for a star who is on the same win curve as Randle and Brunson. But unfortunately, it seems like the whole league is doing that rn.
Couple of things
1. The end of bench Svi and Arch. Those slots have as much value in good practise guys/good attitude given their role guys versus let’s take a flier guys. I am assuming they are on the roster because of the former.
2. I like that there are trade rumours. While the last month has been pleasantly surprising, we need to upgrade. Upgrades are available pre-trade deadline and in the off-season. The FO should be looking at opportunities during each window. The silver lining to us being over .500 and looking upwards, thanks in large part to the Brunson signing, is that Leon will feel less pressure to swing for the fences during this window.
He’ll likely have to settle for a Porzingis package, and I’d be happy to do that as long as we could use near term picks (which is probably what Masai wants).
I’ve been advocating trading RJ for OG for months, and not just because RJ is from Toronto. It would be a huge upgrade. The sole negative is that the best-case RJ is a much more valuable player than OG because of his ability to create… But even then, with Brunson and Randle in that role (and potentially Grimes), I’m not sure that’s as valuable to us at a player who, you know, is actually good. As Hubie notes, we would be a tough out.
It’s not that OG is amazing – he’s good, but not amazing – it’s that he’s the long wing we need. Our starting 5 would be ferocious.
Fun Grimes piece.
“There are 174 NBA players with as many drives to the paint as Grimes has this season, and the Knicks’ 22-year-old up-and-comer owns the best blow-by rate of the bunch.
One hundred and seventy-four players are not a small grouping. Many of them are speedsters. And Grimes darts by his defender more frequently than all of them.”
If we have to give up RJ I would have second thoughts. He will mature, and when he does I think we’ll be glad we held onto him.
I’d rather offer IQ, Obi, and 3 picks (ours this year, ours next year, and the Wizards’). That seems very fair to me for OG.
Essay Question #1: Does the price of contracted NBA players fluctuate like the real estate market and other inflationary prone capitalist sectors? Can supply and demand principles be applied to the NBA trade market, and, if so, what marketplace factors will, or even can, drive down the price for players on the trading block in the future?
Essay Question #2: In the era of woke liberalism and the wanton cancelation of antebellum-period terminology, defend the term “trading block” as it pertains to NBA players.
(All essays must be typed, single spaced, and conform to the university standard established by Ted Nelson)
I am not sure what I would have felt back in October if you told me after 39 games we would have more or less the same record as the Suns, Heat,…and Pacers.
most of these toronto trades probably won’t involve RJ.. the whole point for them would be to trade out of the four wings and a pg lineup they’ve been runnign with and likely the reason they are even pursuing options…. and RJ is pretty redundant to what they’d be presumably trading out of….
who they probably want instead.. and there were some rumors in the offseason about interest…. is probably mitch which i’m sure most here would balk at but i think it deserves serious consideration and woudl be an interesting discussion….
The alternative to trading all our kids for someone like OG (and Hubert, I think it was you who said to me earlier nobody ever says that, but so far this morning we’ve traded Obi, IQ, and RJ (and now Mitch) and we’re only 18 comments in) is to see if our somewhat upward trend can continue, especially working Obi and RJ back into the rotation.
We’re on pace for a 44 win season at the moment, with real potential for a better record given the impressive team gains from the first half to the second half so far. Of course working those two back into the rotation could blow up whatever delicate system the team has that’s working so well and the team could fall apart.
rj is a tough mfer. he dislocated his finger and the bone breaks skin, yet he just irritably moseys to the locker room looking like someone at the dmv told him he was in the wrong line.
Kemba waived by Dallas
the general idea is that you only need two high usage stars is sometimes right but i think if you want to contend that really only applies when those high usage stars are efficient against most if not all nba teams… like if it’s kobe and shaq… or other top tier guys or if you have one real top tier star like giannis…
i don’t think brunson or randle is going to be it come playoff time especially when one of them is highly dependent on someone creating for him to be that efficient star… we all know what iso randle will bring…. so if you shutdown brunson so goes the offense and we’ve seen a little bit of that this season….
which means RJ or whoever replaces has to be able to be potentially be that efficient high usage role.. OG probably will fulfill that potentially eventually but that’s not a definitive thing and that should be a major factor for whoever you’re backing up the truck for.. they need to be able to create their own shot as well as for others in order to be worth it…
I would much rather trade RJ than IQ. RJ is redundant with OG, but is younger and from Toronto. I would throw in 2 or maybe 3 picks and of course Cam or Evian, but that’s it. I think IQ is growing into the perfect 3rd guard, who can play 1 or 2. Trading Mitch would be plugging one hole and creating another. I really don’t see a trade with Toronto or Indiana happening while we’re all competing for playoff/playin position unless someone falls apart in the next month. I beleive a trade is much more likely this offseason when everyone has a chance to reevaluate their roster. That is fine with me.
The term “trading block” should be abolished from sports vernacular.
I’ve long liked the RJ for OG idea. Usually I’d balk at giving up the higher upside player and I think there’s a strong argument we’d be doing that in this case, but OG might have some more room to grow too and I don’t see RJ becoming good enough for us to truly rue the day.
It also seems doubtful RJ can reach his ceiling, whatever it is, playing alongside Brunson and Randle–they’re going to be the go-to shot creators as long as they’re better at it than RJ. His fit on this team has always felt a bit undefined for that reason. It’s not like he’s a lethal spot up threat like Grimes, he’s a worse ball handler than Brunson, and he’s not some defensive ace.
I’m not saying this just to superfluously criticize RJ, I do think there’s a decent chance he becomes a very good player. I just don’t really see the path on this team.
Of course, if Masai actually would take RJ for OG, I’d start to wonder if I was undervaluing RJ…
I think RJ is tough. I think he is also the kind of guy who is thinking he has to appear tough to burnish the legend of the Maple Mamba.
I like him but he is a little like that, is all.
@TNFH That would mean you and a whole lot of other people are undervaluing RJ. There is a reason he never makes anybody’s rising star list. I don’t think it is to troll Knick fans.
Come on, Raven. No one said trade all four of them. We’re discussing which one we would trade. And not for “floss and peanuts”, like you intimated. OG is maybe one of the top 50 players in the league and he fits us like a glove.
I think you need to be three deep with two-way wings in this league. RJ might not be a superstar but he is better than IQ now and projects to be more valuable in the future. The idea of him as 6th man intrigues me quite a bit, too.
RJ being better than IQ is highly arguable
Defensively I don’t think RJ is a great fit with Brunson and Randle. If you move a player for a star RJ makes the most sense.
I don’t know. If Toronto is looking to trade OG, I think they might jump at RJ, Obi (plus Cam/Fournier) and picks.
RJ is super young. I know many here are frustrated with his up and down play and inefficient scoring, but he has A LOT of potential. His contract means they would ahve him for 4 years to see him develop into his prime. He can do a little bit of everything. oh, AND HE’S CANADIAN! That is not as small of a detail as some might think. From a marketing/ticket sales perspective, that could be huge for them especially if they’re rebuilding. Obi plus picks (let’s say 3)…I would think that’s a pretty decent offer for them.
I’m starting to feel bad for Kemba. I know he’s not what he was, but he’s taking a Steve Francis-like nose dive- but without the excessive clubbing and alcohol
However- Golden State needs a true backup PG. Maybe they should take a flier on him
I feel terrible for Kemba.
But I also want to know why NBA coaches seem to feel it is a good idea to play a badly damaged elder statesman 40+ minutes a game. It’s a bit like taking a corgi out bear hunting and being surprised by the result.
Meanwhile, in other news..
Our pal Pat might find himself fired in-season. He’s doing a HORRIBLE job with my beloved Hoyas and I don’t understand why. He’s actually got some real talent there 1 through 8 or 9. For the life of me, I can’t understand why he won’t play Ryan Mutumbo when he’s available or why it took him so long to play Bradley Ezewiro..or how he lost Aminu Muhammad and Jalin Billingsley
Hoyas rant cont’d..
OR EVEN WHY HE LET MAC MCCLUNG SLIP THROUGH HIS FINGERS!! Should have never paired him with James Akinjo. It would have been much better to bring whomever lost the starting PG battle off the bench. And if Akinjo didn’t like leading the 2nd unit, he could transfer because Mac was just a better player but he needed the ball and Akinjo took it away from him too often
Ok..I’m done lol
The Katz piece on Grimes (https://theathletic.com/4062748/2023/01/06/quentin-grimes-knicks-offense/) is great, it’s always nice when you find a stat to validate an eye-test observation. I think the phenomenon described speaks a bit to my admittedly half-baked theory that Grimes has some creation upside left, but obviously we’ve got a long way to go on that front.
I think IQ is pretty clearly the superior player to RJ right this second and he’s making his role on a good team, even a contender, pretty clear. His defense seems like a very real asset by both the numbers and the eye-test, and he’s starting to show some interesting secondary creator ability.
Obviously he’s not untouchable, no one should be in our situation, but I sure do not want to watch that guy develop on another team.
i think RJ is best served on this kind of team where there are two other high usage guys…. his biggest issue.. along with randle.. was shooting too much for his abilities and leading to inefficient shots… as he’s been able to trade bad shots for much better assisted shots he’s improved his shooting across the board…
in a perfect world brunson and randle would be like stockton and malone and that’s all you’ll ever need… but more than likely they aren’t going to be a hof worthy dynamic duo and someone will stop their favorite sets… which aren’t actually that much more imaginitive than a variation of some isos… that’s generally what occurs when you have non-top tier stars as your top usage soakers… they can’t generally get above 30 usage without tanking their efficiency so that has to come from somewhere…
which is why on nights or in series where they are shutdown and cannot be relied upon… like we saw with randle against the hawks.. you need other options… that’s where RJ or someone you’d trade for would come in…
if you don’t have a giannis or embiid or jokic type where they are the sun and everyone else revolves aroudn them you’re going to have to rely on a mix of a higher usage guys in some combination of lineups … if it’s not RJ it has to come from someone… since if brunson and randle is who you’re relying on that’s a recipe for brief playoff runs if you make it there at all..
and i know RJ is our favorite whipping boy and IQ has a lot of fans.. but for some perspective…. at this very moment RJ and IQ have identical TS%s…
“and i know RJ is our favorite whipping boy and IQ has a lot of fans.. but for some perspective…. at this very moment RJ and IQ have identical TS%s…”
Yes, but IQ can be your back up pg and is an excellent defender. And is cheaper.
Sure and RJ does it on higher usage. But IQ is a much better defender, averages more assists per 36, and fewer TOs per 36.
Per 36 RJ scores 4.6 more points, assists 1.6 fewer people, and commits .8 more TOs. On net how much value are the assists & TOs? Quickley also has a lower percentage of assisted 2s & 3s.
Their shooting percentages are almost identical inside and outside the arc. Their rebounds are almost identical on offense & defense.
But one is a good defender and one is a bad defender.
On the other hand RJ is a year younger (almost exactly).
@djphan I think the 1-4 pnr should be our bread and butter in clutch time. Julius just needs to do more than seal at the elbow after setting the screen. If they run it right, it will also lead to a lot of open 3’s for Grimes or IQ.
They do have the same TS% currently but IQ has a higher career TS% (on similar usage), and relatedly there’s way more compelling evidence IQ’s recent hot shooting (.397 3PT% over his last 10 games) is sustainable than RJ’s (.460 3PT% over his last 10 games).
Aside from the stuff EB mentioned, I also think there’s something to be said that they way IQ derives his TS% is more valuable to a team. There’s been a lot of talk in NBA nerd circles recently about how 3PA independent of efficiency are good for an offense. B
Both the raw and adjusted +/- numbers for IQ seem to back up the idea that his 3PT shot is enough of a threat that it’s offensively beneficial independent of the obvious benefits related to, you know, the shots going in.
I feel like IQ is at 80% of what he could be an RJ is at 40%. I also think RJ’s path to his potential is much simpler than IQ’s.
More often than not IQ makes it seem like it’s really hard for him to score.
It’s strange that Immanuel is not the one with the Messiah complex
Owen with the winning pre-game half-court shot…
The reason Randle seals at the elbow on the 1-4 pnr as opposed to rolling more often or other action that gets people going to the rim would be because Mitch’s man is waiting for him. So if he rolls and JB pocket passes there’s a defender in place. No?
That is true cgreene. So we need Randle to throw a quick lob to Mitch or bring in another shooter, like Obi or Hart. They have all year to figure it out.
This team is still gelling. If a no.brainer trade presents itself, sure, go for it. But please don’t listen to the knee-jerk crowd. Continue to be patient and analytical.
mitch, hart, sims – one of them needs to hit an outside shot…seriously, it’s 2023, it’s okay to be big and still be able to dribble, shoot and pass…
for some reason, in my mind while reading these words i heard – do not go get jae chowder…
for that part, no one over 30…drose needs to be primed for soylent green…not that deuce seems to be earning his minutes since the rest of the team started playing defense – in particular julius, and RJ’s been out…
i don’t know, who knows when obi will be back…based on what happened with austin rivers and kemba, as long as obi and RJ are out, either cam or deuce could be out there…
they could be selectively effective at least…
if we can’t trade him, when’s the best time to just release him?
Mitch tried a one legged Dirk with the shot clock about to expire either last game or the game before that, but it was an airball by about three feet. Hart at least looks like he can shoot. Sims has tried a couple of 15 footers that weren’t even close. They should all keep practicing. Too bad we didn’t keep Portis.
I would keep DRose as a mentor for the young guards until the end of the season.
“@djphan I think the 1-4 pnr should be our bread and butter in clutch time. ”
crunchttime/playoff time offense really boils down to giving a variety of looks instead of relying on just one… the 1-4pnr .. or you might mean the spread pnr… is the most common set in the nba… this isn’t the 90s when the jazz can run the same play over and over again… good defenses adjust and all it really takes is someone in drop coverage or giving randle all the pop opportunities from behind the arc or cheating off RJ or giving Grimes all the shots that he wants for it to not be all that great…
the other alternative is just to have players so good that being predictable doesn’t matter… i don’t think brunson or randle are in that category to do that on a consistent basis which is the problem.. and the solution is to do something thibs hasn’t done before which is to get creative on offense…. thibs absolutely needs to step up in that regard if we’re ever expecting to go beyond being satisfied with .500 and play-in games..
yep, green tasty wafers…
portis has played really well in his role for the bucks…
reference kemba…not to say this is his path, but, if someone couldn’t get a job playing basketball in the US – where would be the best spot to go play?
“Both the raw and adjusted +/- numbers for IQ seem to back up the idea that his 3PT shot is enough of a threat that it’s offensively beneficial independent of the obvious benefits related to, you know, the shots going in.”
I think a big problem with IQ is that he hasn’t really been a good 3pt shooter since his rookie year… and i think a lot of the struggles trae young has can also apply to IQ… they both rely on pullups and floaters for a big chunk of their offense…. and they just happen to be the hardest shots on the court and the most volatile…
once the foulbaiting rules took effect they got hit relatively hard to no one’s surprise.. but without getting to the line as much some of their weaknesses got exposed… they’re great shooters but they torpedo their own efficiency by jacking up ill advised shots…
some of this stuff doesn’t get talked about enough .. but i think most ppl realize IQ’s upside is relatively capped… yes he’s doing some nice things so it’s not a total lost cause…. but if he’s not getting to the line as he once did and he’s not doing a curry pullup from anywhere shooting spree… then his paths to improvement are pretty much shutoff.. and you can see that with his usage and percentages declining despite getting the keys to the second unit…
someone mentioned it before and i mentioned this comp awhile ago.. but it’s very likely we’re looking at a devonte graham.. who has his uses but it’s not really much to get excited about… despite all the 3s he jacks up and converts at mediocre rates… but being a guard and his age theres plenty of time to be proven wrong on that…