[news.google.com] — Monday, December 26, 2022 7:17:30 AM
DeRozan’s jumper gives Bulls 118-117 victory over Knicks Sacramento Bee
[news.google.com] — Monday, December 26, 2022 5:30:00 AM
NBA power rankings 2022-23: Celtics, 76ers make big statements on Christmas Day, Devin Booker re-injures groin DraftKings Nation
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The New York Knicks’ All-Christmas Team Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 7:35:00 PM
Jalen Brunson exits Knicks’ loss in fourth quarter with undisclosed injury New York Post
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 7:28:40 PM
The Knicks front office reportedly discussed trading for Tobias Harris Posting and Toasting
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 6:11:00 PM
Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks, NBA Christmas 2022: How Philly rallied for a 7-point win The Athletic
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 5:47:17 PM
Jalen Brunson injury scare vs. Sixers will worry Knicks fans ClutchPoints
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 5:08:04 PM
NBA Insider reacts to Knicks’ Christmas Day loss, mentions Tobias Harris as a trade deadline option | Ian Begley Yahoo Sports
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 5:06:06 PM
James Harden reacts to Sixers’ Christmas comeback vs. Knicks ClutchPoints
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 4:49:08 PM
Tom Thibodeau gives a Jalen Brunson update after Knicks’ Christmas Day loss | Knicks Post Game Yahoo Sports
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 3:53:00 PM
Knicks drop third straight, lose Christmas Day matinee against Sixers 119-112 Yahoo News
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 3:52:46 PM
Carmelo Anthony appearance at MSG a nice present amid Knicks lump of coal ClutchPoints
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 2:44:21 PM
Embiid, Harden help 76ers blow by Knicks to win 8th straight The Associated Press – en Espa?ol
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 2:28:23 PM
Ho, Ho, Oh No! Knicks Lose Brunson and Big Lead in Holiday Horror Show Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 1:45:30 PM
NBA: Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks | Fieldlevel | mdjonline … MDJOnline.com
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 1:15:52 PM
76ers vs. Knicks: Shake Milton’s 50-foot buzzer-beater swings game, shines light on NBA’s anti-heave epidemic CBS Sports
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 12:18:35 PM
Pete Davidson’s Date to the Knicks’ Christmas Day Game Was His … Just Jared
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 11:35:00 AM
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[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 9:30:31 AM
Knicks vs. 76ers prediction, odds, spread: 2022 Christmas Day NBA picks, best bets from model on 28-12 roll CBS Sports
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 9:26:14 AM
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[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 9:00:00 AM
Are the New York Knicks gearing up for a major trade? Hoops Habit
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 7:54:00 AM
76ers vs Knicks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight – Christmas Day NBA Picks CoversKnicks go ice cold in fourth quarter in Christmas collapse against 76ers New York Post Eastern Conference Recap: Joel Embiid Has Big Day Against New York Knicks Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Sunday, December 25, 2022 7:33:45 AM
76ers’ PJ Tucker Reveals Injury, Plans to Play vs. Knicks Sports Illustrated
26 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2022.12.26)”
I’m sure many of you are already subscribers to Alan’s free newsletter on Substack, but for those who aren’t here are Alan’s last thoughts for this year.
And go subscribe it when you can, here: https://alansepinwall.substack.com/
Okay. Post-Xmas Blues Hive Mind Summary, if I may be so bold.
I think most of our questions have been, to varying extents, answered. Here’s what I think we know:
Our nine-man rotation consists of varying levels of highly skilled basketball players, most of them B list (I’ll stay away from the ‘tier’ thing for now), none of them A list, but we knew that going in (at least the latter part of that line).
In a nod to Strat-language, when the team plays ‘the right way’ – and by that I mean hard-nosed, focused defense, and actual ball movement on offense, while limiting the imbecilic plays (e.g., passing to the other team, lollygagging on D, etc.), we can beat almost anyone – and, on a given night, beat anyone.
If we don’t play ‘the right way,’ we can lose to almost anyone. Or really to anyone, this being a professional league of good players and all.
So there we are. Purgatory perhaps, but we were never going to contend for a chip this year anyway. If we play right, it’s enormously enjoyable (see eight-game winning streak). When we don’t put it together, it’s painful and often unpleasant (see three-game losing streak).
I don’t think there are many remaining questions out there. A few to ponder:
Are teams learning to contain Brunson? (This is a biggie.)
Can Randle continue playing borderline all-star level and minimize his brain-damage plays?
Will RJ continue his upward trajectory (and minimize his brain-damage plays)?
Will Deuce ever get confident enough to shoot when he should (and will he make them)?
Really, that’s all there is. We’re good enough to beat almost anyone when we play right, we’re not so good that we won’t lose to almost anyone when we play poorly. Not a surprise, even Milwaukee and Memphis got embarrassed yesterday, so that situation isn’t just a second-level team situation.
Your honor, I strenuously object.
This line of thinking implies that it’s within our power to go on a 7 game-winning streak; all we have to do is play the right way.
A host of factors contributed to that streak. It’s not pessimistic to point out the impact of Invisible Sixth Man and Invisible Gillooly was huge. I enjoyed the wins nonetheless, but you can’t ignore pertinent data to help validate your conclusion, and that’s what a lot of people were doing.
We had three games where our opponents shot under 20% from 3 on high volume. Y’all wanted to credit Deuce & Grimes but come on, that’s like 16% below league average. If Deuce & Grimes could have that much defensive impact Thibs would play them 48 minutes.
It was random. These things happen. Sometimes they happen in clusters.
This is what mediocrity looks like. On our good days, we can look like the good teams. But when good teams have good days, they look like the 86 Celtics. That ain’t us.
Look, the team is decent and is fun to watch. At this point it is all we can reasonably ask for, in my opinion. I’m not as down as I was last season because at this point, it’s quite clear that the front office’s priorities is to put together a competitive group, and the Knicks are a competitive team right now. We’re firmly entrenched into the route of building slowly through incremental improvements so I’m judging them on this path.
There’s no more reason to get desperate because of 3 straight losses than there was to get super hyped about the win streak. If your definition of mediocre is a .500 team, then yes this is a mediocre squad. But there’s a difference between being a mediocre squad trending relatively upwards from last season, with decent young players, and just being flat out mediocre.
Also, a delicious thrashing of the Maple Mamba in The Ringer, I’ll link the story line (it’s a ways down) rather than include the text as there’s highly embarrassing video evidence.
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/12/26/23526657/nba-christmas-winners-losers
A side comment: The media really has been trying to push Tatum as the MVP and he’s been sublime, but how can you seriously write the christmas games were good for his MVP campaign when Jokic did THAT later on the same day?
I know the terrible concept of voters fatigue and everything else but there’s simply no fucking way the dude taking the damn Nuggets to the 1st seed in the west while averaging 25.4 / 11 / 9.4 on .685 ts% (!!!!!!!) is not the MVP, period.
Jokic is absurd, he’s not even shooting 3s well this season
Jokic is going to be the worst back to back to back MVP in NBA history. I can hear them saying it.
IQ pointing at Grimes is pretty hilarious in that clip
Mediocre and trending upward is clearly building something, but — What to do next?
IMO – the answer depends on Thibs. Will he still be here if/when we are good enough to win a conference title? Is he our perfect taskmaster whose teams are always more than the sum of their parts? Or is Thibs a dinosaur who cannot design an offense to save his life?
Of course it’s a bit of both, but Leon’s belief or lack thereof prolly affects who we draft, who we want in trades, and how much we like Randle, RJ, and Brunson, all of whom seem like Thibs guys. Consider the doghouse. Certainly, other coaches — D’Antoni; Kerr; Pop — might prefer guys who are currently locked inside it. So I wish I knew what Leon was thinking: We need more Thibs guys? Or We need the best players available b/c Thibs himself is expendable.
And, oof, those clips. I only wish the players watched them as often as we do.
I’ve slightly budged on one prior based on the first 34 games.
Before the season I thought we needed to add 2 star-level players to reasonably be characterized as a “contender.” That’s basically as far from contention as a team can possibly be.
Through the first 34 games, the guys already on the roster have us in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive rating with the 9th best net rating in the league. I think some or all of these figures will go down–invisible henchman, sixth man, etc.–but doing this through 34 games is a relevant data point IMO.
So I’m less pessimistic about the state of the current roster, and now think it’s possible adding 1 star-level player could make us a contender.
Tons of caveats here. It would have to be an upper-echelon star (i.e. more in the 7 BPM range than 4 BPM range), the star would have to fit like a glove, we’d have to add them without sacrificing much of any present value, and I still think we’d be more of a fringe contender than a favorite. But I wouldn’t complain about a team that made some conference finals runs even if we never won a finals.
The absolutely ideal player to add to this group would be prime Kawhi Leonard. Man I hope we get to see that guy again, he was incredible.
So here’s a thought experiment: how good does everyone think this team would be if we traded RJ and some ungodly sum of picks for 25 year-old Kawhi Leonard?
That’s an example of a package that another team could conceivably value highly that doesn’t sacrifice much in the way of *present value* (I’m not trying to start a whole RJ debate, it’s just not that controversial to say most of his value is still projection based).
If Leonard would ever be reliably healthy for an entire season I’d do that trade and even send some more stuff if the Clippers asked for more, because that’s a transformational guy. I just don’t think we’re ever getting a full season of Kawhi anymore and it’s a damn shame.
The issue as always is where does the star level production comes from, and that is the one uncertain thing about this team that we can’t really solve. This method of building slowly while only marginally using the draft leaves us having to rely on a lucky break; the right star has to become available for the right package and the guy has to want to play for the Knicks. It’s the one criticism I’ve always had to this method, it’s just very hard to replicate the conditions that led Kawhi to the Raptors or Anthony Davis to the Lakers, to stay within recent examples.
Swap Jokic for Randle and how many games do we win?
“This method of building slowly while only marginally using the draft leaves us having to rely on a lucky break”
This is the long and short of it. When the epitaph of the Leon Rose Era is written, I’m pretty sure it’ll say he waited on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that never arrived.
Rebuilding primarily through the draft is hard too and the odds are always against you in the NBA, but I prefer a GM who has the confidence to think they’ll be able to make the right picks at the top of the draft. When you don’t, you wind up hoping you’ll get the opportunity to pay a premium to teams who’ve already done so.
Donovan Mitchell has a 7.3 BPM right now.
We chose to hold onto the nuts and bolts.
As Bruno alluded, the Knicks aren’t a real destination until they prove to a top-10 player they can really win with this club. Not getting there this way. If RJ became Jimmy Butler, and we got a top-3 seed, maybe. But it doesn’t look like that’s happening.
Sell high-ish on RJ and Randle, value ain’t getting any better on either. There’s no way forward with them. I love Brunson and he’s transformational in his own way, but I don’t think he’s a fit with our win curve.
If we’re mandated from above to avoid tanking and that’s a premise of any path forward, then fine, keep him; but get rid of Randle, RJ, Fournier, etc.; get some young players and picks; and hope for the next Dallas to idiot the next Brunson to us. But I don’t see it. You just can’t fill a contending team that way- first you have to draft a Curry, Jokic, Tatum, Doncic, Embiid, etc.
Boy, that Quickley pointing…that was rough to watch.
It really was. He wasn’t wrong – he was completely right – but I hope that kind of stuff wont get him shipped out of town.
Donovan is shooting 42% from 3. He’s been great but I don’t quite believe that number is real.
I’m still fine that they passed on Mitchell, but it was an indication of the type of choice this front office will have to make in this path, because those top 10 caliber players are simply never really available. Miami had to make do with Butler, who I would argue is a top 20 type player more than top 10, and even with all their team building prowess they have one finals appearance in 3 years and are struggling right now because the talent around him just doesn’t do enough.
Maybe Dallas screws up enough around Doncic and he asks out, or something crazy happens, but getting that final piece is so damn hard.
@TNFH,
Kawhi is at 2.6 BPM this year. That’d be a huge improvement over RJ, but let’s assume he can hit his last year BPM of 7.3. This would make the Knicks near (if not) championship favorites.
The presumptive favorites—the Celtics*—would be putting up a lower total BPM than the Knicks among their top 8 players, around 16 or 17 based on what I believe is their rotation, but likely lower overall if we made some adjustments as Brogdon plays backup minutes. (Note that Robert Williams and Jaylen Brown are slightly underperforming previous years, they’re probably even more dominant than they’ve already shown.)
The Knicks would put up 16.3 for their rotation players (replacing Sims with Obi, which I assume will happen, otherwise the Knicks would be over 17). That said, I’m guessing several other players would see their BPM lower with the addition of Kawhi as there would be fewer shots to go around.
Crude method, as has been noted, but the starting unit is incredibly well balanced despite not having any true stars. The one exception, of -course, is RJ who is -2.0 BPM.
——————————-
Worth also mentioning the Nuggets since Jokic nearly gets the Nuggets their himself with a massive 12.6 BPM, but after Jokic and Aaron Gordon (2.6 BPM) the rest of the Nuggies are putting up negative BPMs. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, if they get back to form and stay healthy, could make the Nuggets favorites… but that seems unlikely.
*Tatum is the only player on the Celtics who currently has a BPM over 4. The Celtics are just a deep well-balanced team, although Robert Williams will likely finish over 4 and Horford did it last year too. I believe only the Lakers and Philly actually have two players currently over a 4.0 BPM. Knicks have Randle and Mitch as the 2nd and 3rd player below a 4BPM with Brunson having fallen off to a 2.5
Again, did we really pass on Spida or did Utah just wait and take a better offer?
I mean, yes, we probably should’ve upped the ante earlier, but Ainge is obviously a bastard to deal with.
It seems clear that Leon is prioritizing homegrown products (hence the Tobias Harris news)… any other good players from NY state we might want?
They passed. The Cleveland offer was a pre-existing one that Ainge returned to once the Knicks wouldn’t change their 2025 first rounder from Top 5 protected to no protection.
Sorry I just laughed a little at the irony here, Bruno 😉
To me, mediocre just means a team with moderate quality and ability, and I think that’s a very fair assessment of us.
I don’t think it’s a Thibs thing, as KBA suggested. I think it’s a Randle and Barrett thing. If they could be their best consistently, they wouldn’t be Randle and Barrett, you know? This is who they are. When they’re on, we’re gonna look good. But at the end of the day, they’re not that hard to stop.
As for Noble, I think it’s reasonable for him to change his assessment after 34 games, but largely because he was pretty far behind everyone else. He essentially needed these 34 games to catch up.
I think it’s more fair to say Danny didn’t want our nuts and bolts once Cleveland offered chrome and leather.
Ok I took a peek, and it’s not a great list:
– Huerter is from Albany 😐
– Jonathan Isaac might be a nice “buy low” candidate, he’s from the Bronx
Jose Alvarado and Kyle Anderson are both ok I guess, but there aren’t any stars in that group. Maybe Leon will open it up to NJ as well lol.
Mo Bamba.
Doncic is from Yonkers.