Categories
Uncategorized

Knicks Morning News (2022.11.06)

  • Knicks’ Julius Randle-Obi Toppin pairing struggle vs. Celtics – New York Post
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, November 6, 2022 4:09:00 AM

    Knicks’ Julius Randle-Obi Toppin pairing struggle vs. Celtics  New York Post

  • Knicks fan wins car with half-court shot in New York vs Boston classic – BasketNews.com
    [news.google.com] — Sunday, November 6, 2022 1:00:00 AM

    Knicks fan wins car with half-court shot in New York vs Boston classic  BasketNews.com

  • NBA Insider Ian Begley talks shoddy Knicks defense in loss to Boston, impact of Mitchell Robinson’s injury | SportsNite – Yahoo Sports
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 11:41:00 PM

    NBA Insider Ian Begley talks shoddy Knicks defense in loss to Boston, impact of Mitchell Robinson’s injury | SportsNite  Yahoo Sports

  • Brown has 30, Celtics hit 27 3s in 133-118 win over Knicks – The Bakersfield Californian
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 10:43:52 PM

    Brown has 30, Celtics hit 27 3s in 133-118 win over Knicks  The Bakersfield Californian

  • Knicks fan wins a car after hitting incredible half-court shot – New York Post
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 10:30:54 PM

    Knicks fan wins a car after hitting incredible half-court shot  New York Post

  • Celtics set franchise record for 3-pointers in a game, beat Knicks, 133-118 – Lewiston Sun Journal
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 10:20:01 PM

    Celtics set franchise record for 3-pointers in a game, beat Knicks, 133-118  Lewiston Sun Journal

  • Knicks Celtics 3-pointer record allowed loss – Sports – WFAN
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 10:09:37 PM

    Knicks Celtics 3-pointer record allowed loss – Sports  WFAN

  • C, 3, Oh No! Knicks Can’t Handle Celtics History in Saturday Loss – Sports Illustrated
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 10:08:37 PM

    C, 3, Oh No! Knicks Can’t Handle Celtics History in Saturday Loss  Sports IllustratedCeltics vs. Knicks – NBA Game Recap – November 5, 2022  ESPNCeltics Wrap: Boston’s Dominant Outside Shooting Leads Way Vs. Knicks  NESNKnicks’ rare lineup pairing sparks much-needed win over 76ers  New York Post NBA Twitter reacts to Sixers collapsing in home loss to Knicks  Sixers WireView Full Coverage on Google News

  • Boston 133, N.Y. Knicks 118 – Times Union
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 9:57:56 PM

    Boston 133, N.Y. Knicks 118  Times Union

  • Boston 133, N.Y. Knicks 118 – CTPost
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 9:54:47 PM

    Boston 133, N.Y. Knicks 118  CTPost

  • How to Watch New York Knicks Games Live in 2022 – TV Guide
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 9:00:00 PM

    How to Watch New York Knicks Games Live in 2022  TV Guide

  • Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks Nov 5, 2022 Game Summary – NBA.com
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 8:27:00 PM

    Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks Nov 5, 2022 Game Summary  NBA.com

  • Report: Obi Toppin, Rick Brunson Got into ‘Heated Argument’ at Knicks vs. 76ers Game – Bleacher Report
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 7:46:19 PM

    Report: Obi Toppin, Rick Brunson Got into ‘Heated Argument’ at Knicks vs. 76ers Game  Bleacher Report

  • Sweet-shooting Celtics bury Knicks under franchise-record barrage of 3-pointers – The Boston Globe
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 5:46:00 PM

    Sweet-shooting Celtics bury Knicks under franchise-record barrage of 3-pointers  The Boston Globe

  • Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson: Out at least one week – CBS Sports
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 5:39:42 PM

    Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson: Out at least one week  CBS Sports

  • After Loss to Knicks, What’s the Latest on Joel Embiid? – Sports Illustrated
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 1:06:16 PM

    After Loss to Knicks, What’s the Latest on Joel Embiid?  Sports Illustrated

  • Knicks’ Trevor Keels: Game-high scoring in loss – CBS Sports
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 12:47:02 PM

    Knicks’ Trevor Keels: Game-high scoring in loss  CBS Sports

  • Knicks Twitter celebrates as Tom Thibodeau finally pairs Obi Toppin with Julius Randle – WFAN
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 12:47:00 PM

    Knicks Twitter celebrates as Tom Thibodeau finally pairs Obi Toppin with Julius Randle  WFAN

  • Knicks benching Evan Fournier signals possible changes incoming – Empire Sports Media
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 11:06:49 AM

    Knicks benching Evan Fournier signals possible changes incoming  Empire Sports Media

  • Knicks’ RJ Barrett: Comes close to double-double – CBS Sports
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 10:24:37 AM

    Knicks’ RJ Barrett: Comes close to double-double  CBS Sports

  • 76ers vs. Knicks: Sixers Explain Late Struggles on Friday Night – Sports Illustrated
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 8:05:00 AM

    76ers vs. Knicks: Sixers Explain Late Struggles on Friday Night  Sports Illustrated

  • Tom Thibodeau’s Julius Randle-Obi Toppin desperation plays in Knicks’ favor – Daily Knicks
    [news.google.com] — Saturday, November 5, 2022 8:00:00 AM

    Tom Thibodeau’s Julius Randle-Obi Toppin desperation plays in Knicks’ favor  Daily Knicks

  • 61 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2022.11.06)”

    I didn’t see the game last night. There are a few people at the end of the game thread praising Cam. He played 37 minutes, was 1-6 for 4 points, and he had 2 rebounds and 2 assists. What did I miss?

    intangibles, the little things, the nitty-gritty, dawg — you just gotta see it to believe it he’s a baller with a blue-chip pedigree and THAT’S TUFF

    The commentary seemed to be about Cam on defense. I only watched a tiny sample, so I can’t speak to that.

    Also, now we have a game where we win with Obi/Randle against a team with a small frontcourt, and one where we lost. I wonder which one Thibs will put more stock into…

    We had to play catchup all game long.
    The effort was there, we did play some really good basketball in stretches but were unable to stop Boston’s storm of threes.

    Out “little-3” had good games but struggled to score in the 4th (Randle 5 pts, Brunson 2, RJ 2) where the Knicks were lead by Toppin (7) and Hartenstein (6).

    And let’s not forget Noah Vohnleh that after a couple of DNP-CD came back to torment us with a 7 & 7 clutch performance from the bench.

    Thibs kept trying different things, tonight he basically went to a 9-men rotation, but he got less than expected off the bench.

    Plays Of The Game:
    This one is subtle, but Kaminari was quick to point it out in the game thread.

    4:23 to go in the 3rd, the Knicks had cut Boston’s lead from 7 to 1 (on an RJ’s and-1 and a Rose’s three). Brown missed a layup, Rose got the rebound and the Knicks started as greyhounds down the floor. The crowd foretaste a dunk, the lead… but Rose throw the ball way over the streaking Cam and into the stands.
    Boston called timeout to stop the Knicks momentum and that was the last time we had a chance to take the lead.

    Stats Of The Day:
    – 27-51. Boston’s 3PFG. I’ve never seen anything like it.
    – 50-26. Boston’s backups destroyed our renewed-by-force Bench Mob. Unpleasant.

    Brunson B-
    22 efficient points, 10 assists, no turnovers. Brilliant for 3 quarters but I’m a bit surprised by his scarcity in the 4th play-by-play.
    And let’s be honest, despite committed he’s a hole on defense.

    Barrett B-
    Careless start, then he took off and played brilliantly until the 4th, were he can’t keep it going.
    He’s a brilliant passer when focused, but the 6 TOs were infuriating and he needs to be more steady on defense.
    Still, I’d sign for him to have shooting nights like this one.

    Randle B-
    Kept us in the game in the 1st quarter (11 points) and had an overall good game until the 4th.
    Frustrated by some non-calls he dangerously lived on the edge:
    during a timeout I spotted Marcus Smart chatting with a ref, mimicking Randle’s use of elbows to get rid of defenders.
    It’s not a surprise that Randle was called for an offensive foul not much later, plus he had a couple of position-tussles with Brogdon and then hit Grant Williams in the face and was assessed a flagrant.
    He’d better cool down.

    Reddish C-
    37 minutes and a starting spot until Grimes is back.
    The shots weren’t falling but he did look decent* on defense and played under control on offense (where he doesn’t have a defined role).
    Half-full take: his attitude looks better.
    Half-empty take: He’s Cam Reddish, he fooled us before.

    * He still has occasional breakdowns (Tatum, Brown and Hauser were part of his assignement, right?)

    Hartenstein B-
    Forced to start by Mitch’s injury, played 38 minutes, lead the team in plus-minus (plus-7) and had a double-double (10 pts/14 reb).
    On offense his presence, or better his absence in the paint, open up the lanes for the Lefty Squad to attack, plus he’s a good and willing passer, both things a welcome development.
    I know sometimes he looks lost on defensive glass, but his energy his remarkable and I can’t complain (to be honest I like him a lot), not at that cost.

    IQ D +
    Another meh game. -16 in 13 minutes, a couple of bounds, a steal… but the microwave is cold.

    Fournier F +
    There is a ghost running around in a Knicks’ uni.
    -19 in 11 minutes, were he had more TOs (2) that shots (1, and he buried it).
    So far the demotion had a very bad effect on him and I’m expecting him to be glued to the bench when Grimes will be back.

    Rose C-
    First some good things then some bad ones.
    Alas he ended the game cold and his TO was truly a pity.

    Toppin D +
    redeemed himself a bit in the 4th, but was bad most of the game (-22 in 15 minutes).
    With the way he’s been used he has issues finding a good rhythm so his last games were a sequence of up-and-down/hot-and-cold moments.

    Sims NA
    3 minutes, -7, a dunk and a foul.
    He’s playing too little to ever be ready for this level of competition.

    Thibs B-
    He’s feeling the pressure, he’s trying everything and that’s not a bad thing, I like him to be “situational” during the game.
    I don’t have specific issues for this game but more broadly, with Cavs and Celtics burning us from three, one can argue about our team perimeter defense. We’ll see.

    Interesting stat: Boston played 9 guys 15+ minutes, we played 5 guys 15+ minutes. Maybe we ran out of gas

    Was at the game last night. Left feeling that it was just one of those nights for the Celts, they just didn’t miss…although as I pointed out before the game, our defensive strategy is to allow more 3’s and live or die with the results. We died a horrible death, just like we did against the Cavs. If that becomes a pattern, something has to change. Players just shoot to well nowadays for that to work consistently.

    Funny, the best shot of the night was the fan who banked and thanked his way to a new car. Fans went nuts!

    There were a fair share of Celts fans but I’ve seen much worse.

    Nothing like a coupla tall boy $17 IPAs to keep things in perspective.

    Talent tends to win out pretty emphatically in the association, and the Knicks simply do not have enough of it.

    I’m not sure how to say this without it “sounding negative,” but Jalen Brunson is a very poor defender. I guess the positive is that he’s pretty good on offense. But he’s a very poor defender.

    I was one of the posters about Cam. He did not have an amazing game by any means, but he was disruptive on D in a way that many of our other players fail to be. He had only one steal and one block in the box score but there were numerous other times when he tapped a ball out of the handler’s hands to throw them off and got in the passing lanes to change a play. Again, these are prolly things all basic NBA players *should* do, but ours mostly don’t. So attention was paid.

    I was mostly surprised Cam was among the team leaders in minutes with 37. Thibs is definitely giving him his shot, and (somewhat amusingly) Cam was visibly gassed by end of game.

    I thought we played well last night despite the loss. You aren’t going to beat anyone if they hit 52.9% of their 3s on very high volume. If they just hit 40% (which is not even sustainable at the team level) it would have been a different game down the stretch.

    Cam didn’t have a good night shooting but he’s starting to look more like a professional that’s working hard at both ends instead of a lazy 4th year rookie that thinks he’s a superstar. His size and length are a plus. He’s our only true SF size wise. That’s why they got him. He leads the team in on/off. Baby steps.

    RJ has his TS% heading in the right direction. If it wasn’t for that 3/18 meltdown where he was forcing way too much we might even be satisfied with the overall results. Still, too many really dumb TOs.

    Brunson is struggling from 3 a bit.

    Quickly just can’t get going. He’s going to break out of it eventually, but we need him to get going.

    Maybe we ran out of gas

    I think you’re right and at the same time I don’t put blame on Thibs this time.

    I know it’s funny for me to defend him (the coach I want fired since last year pre-ASG), but yesterday every foray to the bench went bad.

    IQ was bad, Fournier was awful, Obi was bad (except for a 3-minutes stretch), Rose tired early despite playing only 14 minutes (his start of the 4th wasn’t good).

    And the Celtics were shooting so well it was always a case of “we’re bending but when are we going to break?”, so he choosed to go with the starters (that were very good for 3 quarters).

    The Celtics are just better (as are the Bucks) and we need to play spotless basketball, and them not to shoot this way, to have a chance.

    Speaking of Rose, I get the feeling his mission/goal is to score as many points as he can when he comes in but then limit his minutes overall. Not sure if the stats back that up, but he’s looking for his own shot earlier and more frequently than I remember. Not saying it’s bad, but it’s more of a Vinnie Johnson model than back up PG.

    IQ – what to say. I love the guy, but he is not finding his shot.

    I’m trying to not get too high or low with every win and loss. Can someone give me an idea of a “fair” moment in the season to judge a team? Other teams in the league are obviously struggling now as well. Can the Knicks find a higher gear? Or has the league solved them already?

    I’ll take my answer off the air, thanks…

    It would be naive to think that any Knick could have thwarted the Celtics shooting last night. Would 5 minutes of Deuce be so horrible?

    “Can the Knicks find a higher gear? Or has the league solved them already?”

    Like Z man and others. I didn’t think we played so poorly last night. The Celtics were just too good. As to the above, it did indeed feel like a scrappy 90s Knicks team was simply outclassed by a team playing in the 21st Century NBA and raining threes from (even!) Noah Vonleh.

    I had the exact same feeling looking at Cam’s line at the end of the game – and I watched it.

    He played good defense. He contested shots fairly effectively (but they all went in.) He switched well. He looked competent out there for a while. He also seemed a lot more engaged. His effort level seemed visibly higher. At one point he walked off the court huffing and puffing and Clyde noted approvingly how spent he was.

    So there is that. But he didn’t, ahh, do much that was tangible.

    RJ had three horrible live ball turnovers but then got it together. The lack of an opposing big was very helpful I think.

    They hit everything. Not sure what all there is to say..

    “I’m trying to not get too high or low with every win and loss. Can someone give me an idea of a “fair” moment in the season to judge a team?”

    When I was gambling on the games I found that at around the 20 games my team ratings started to stabilize. There will exceptions, like a rookie or 2nd year player breaking out during the season or if a team had injuries or you faced a bunch of teams with injuries, but we are probably about half way to knowing what we have unless one of the kids breaks out.

    Cam made no maddenly stupid hair-clutching, unforced errors. That’s a huge step for him. And should be applauded. The ball still doesn’t leave his hands unless it is traveling toward the basket, but baby steps…

    Can’t say no errors for our two stars, Barrett and Randle. They have stretches of good, but then stretches of stupid. I’m convinced this team can play with — and beat — anyone (evidenced by these last losses), the difference being that stupid unforced errors (which includes driving into traffic and getting blocked and/or throwing up lunatic prayers, basically the same as a straightforward errant pass) are the difference.

    Amazing that Cam Reddit is modeling good behavior for the team.

    Brunson was eaten alive by a 6’5″ silky smooth point guard. I guess that’s just going to happen.

    Celtics announcers said Randle looked gassed at the start of the 4th. Seems when he’s tired he acts out, like my kid when he was 4.

    “I’ll pay you $5 for that spreadsheet”

    If you are talking to me, there a several spreadsheets for each season linked together. The data was downloaded daily from Basketball Reference and automatically updated several of them.

    The ratings were calculated using the same exact SRS formula as is used by basketball reference (provided to me by someone there), but I added in Home/Away adjustments at the team level (ex Denver at home is worth more than the Knicks at home) and major injuries.

    I also ran the exact same SRS formula on I believe the last 10 games and last 20 games for a recency evaluation and sometimes pre major injury and post major injury to see how much a player seemed to be worth.

    The primary SRS ratings were fed into a spreadsheet with the schedule for that night that calculated an odds line that included Team SRS Rating, team level Home/Away Adjustment, Schedule Adjustment (1 day rest, 2 days rest, B2B, 3 of 4 B2B etc… ), a column to show me the recency rating vs the overall rating, and a column to make a subjective injury adjustment for today.

    I manually entered my injury adjustment and anything that was way off (maybe 1-2 games per night) was a potential bet. The rest of the analysis was subjective. It might involve the team recency rating, a coaching change, a matchup issue, a specific injury (like to the starting PG), or something else.

    I’d say I averaged 1 bet a night but sometimes more. I had an edge, but I was working full time, doing even more work on horse racing than basketball, and the workload was killing all the fun. So I stopped the basketball betting and spreadsheets. The spreadsheets for some seasons are probably backed up somewhere on Google Drive. It would probably take me more than a week to figure it all out again, especially the downloads because the pages at Basketball Reference have changed.

    Seems like you’re gonna need more than 5 bones per spreadsheet sale to get a proper ROI…unless you go SAAS model…

    Wasn’t able to catch the game last night, but based on the highlights and box score:

    -Early returns on the idea that Brunson could raise his usage a tick and maintain solid efficiency are good. Hopefully the latter will get even better as more threes start to fall, though it’s hard to say what the baseline there is because he’s gone from being assisted on 81% of his 3PM to 40%, which is one of the biggest year-to-year drop offs I’ve ever seen. The difference between playing off Luka Doncic and being your team’s Luka Doncic.

    -Good games from Randle and RJ, looked like they got most of their points more or less within the flow of the offense (i.e. off Brunson, mainly). RJ is now shooting 63% at the rim, which is good for the 62nd percentile among wings. Get the 3PT% up to 37% or so and we’re talking about a reasonably valuable player. I think the key with both guys is to avoid them having the ball for a prolonged period of time. The odd play here and there is fine, but they should mostly seek to be “system players.” That means brushing up on skills like spot-up 3PT shooting, cutting, screening, and quick-read passing. TBD if they can do it.

    -While 52% is probably anomalous regardless of defensive scheme, there way too many reasonably open 3PT shooters last night and the idea that we’re targeting weak shooters isn’t standing up to scrutiny. We’ve given up the most 3PA in the NBA and our “3PT% defense” to the extent such a thing exists is 12th. Our overall defensive rating is 17th. I am sure Tom Thibodeau knows way more about Xs and Os than a lawyer who posts on a Knicks blog under a username he made when he was 14, but this just does not seem to be a sustainable defensive strategy.

    They did get too many open looks from 3, but man, do the Celtics know how to run an offense. The ball is always moving and they pass up decent shots for better shots.

    (But I’ll admit, watching in person as Doogie Hauser turned into prime Kyle Korver was rather nauseating)

    I was one of the people talking positively about Cam but it was more about his effort on defense and how he had a lot of fundamentally solid plays on that end, which is a legit big step up for him. He wasn’t good on offense last night but he also wasn’t making the kind of boneheaded idiot plays he’s prone to. Baby steps with him, I certainly don’t think he’s good right now but if can he can keep improving his defense and be more consistent on offense that’d be a great outcome for him this season.

    Too lazy to verify but seems a certain poster disappears after a win and pops up after a loss.

    Hopefully the latter will get even better as more threes start to fall, though it’s hard to say what the baseline there is because he’s gone from being assisted on 81% of his 3PM to 40%, which is one of the biggest year-to-year drop offs I’ve ever seen.

    ************************

    That’s because he’s not really a true point guard, as confirmed by his assist numbers.

    Man, watching the Kyrie-less Nets play just shows you how important star power in the NBA is. A fairly weak supporting staff surrounding a superstar is still a decent team.

    Other than a bad gamble or two Cam was where he was supposed to be all night on defense. And when he’s where he supposed to be he’s a pretty good defender and one with a high ceiling if he can get stronger. Offensively, he really didn’t force anything but didn’t get anything done either. I do think he’s been swinging the ball quickly on the perimeter lately and has actually made a some decent passes this season. There’s actual NBA talent there- get stronger, tighten the handle, and maintain consistent focus and he can be a solid rotation player- the rebounding and passing are so non-existent that his ceiling isn’t sky high but him turning out to be a starter on a good team seems achievable. But the odds that he does that and then can be resigned relatively cheaply seem slim to me. Dolan’s razor says he improves just enough for the Knicks to have overpay him this summer.

    i think I watched the game, all I really remember from it was the Celtics hitting three after three after three…

    we have to be letting up more 3 pointers than any other team in the league…

    it’s remarkable how well other teams are shooting the 3 against us…

    in other news of the world…stopped by 5 guys yesterday for a burger with son…right next door was this chocolate store…had a chocolate covered apple for thr first time in forever – delicious…

    very proud of you al…been a challenging year and not only are you seemingly not slowly down – you’re moving forward and in to another gear…

    hopefully you’ve got some good routines going to help keep yourself healthy…

    best of luck with the newsletter, you seem to have this stuff down to a science so I know it’ll rock…

    hoping you also get a chance to interview lots more cool nerdy artist people, that seems like endless fun…

    Sort of impressed the Jets are not only hanging with the Bills, but just went up late in the third. Seems they may actually be a thing, regardless of what happens the rest of the game.

    I wonder if Thibs is going to go small against the T-Wolves if both Gobert and Towns play? If he does, his family should probably search for a pod in his bedroom.

    We know Thibs likes to defend the paint. I think more important than the number of 3s the Knicks allow is what kind of 3s they allow. Are they defending the corner 3s well, are they scouting the individual players well enough to force them to their weaker spots and taking but their best spots, etc.. ?

    Last night doesn’t bother me to much. It was frustrating watching the Celtics make all those 3s during the game and cost us a chance to win, but imo that was mostly variance. We gave away some easy looks, but they were on fire. It happens.

    Big win for the Jets vs. Buffalo today, and a nice bounce back game for Zach Wilson.

    Last night doesn’t bother me to much. It was frustrating watching the Celtics make all those 3s during the game and cost us a chance to win, but imo that was mostly variance. We gave away some easy looks, but they were on fire. It happens.

    I think we are overeager helping and doubling inside. It is one thing if you double and the other team gets a nice look after rotating and moving the ball well, and other thing if they just need a single obvious pass to find teammate completely wide open.

    In part, Cam Reddish was active in defense, but I also think that a culprit in some of these situations. The team has to be more aware when to help and when to stay with their man, specially since last night the Celtics were not causing that much problems inside and were red hot from outside.

    Yes, in that case Randle did not even help that much. I think it must be in part by design by Thibs, but when every player in the opposing team is able to make a three, you cannot do that.

    Randle was supposed to double there, he just lost his man (a significant problem in its own right) when he shifted from the corner to the wing. Even then he’s probably supposed to double but needed to adjust his positioning to be able to close out.

    I’m wondering if the problem is the system or the personnel. The defense worked well the last 2 seasons. We’re missing Burks a lot.

    Also, we’ve had 2 very unlucky nights between this game and Cleveland even if guys are left wide open.

    Reddish played some very good defense (I was only half paying attention so maybe he made a lot of mistakes too). He got praise for that.

    He should have been credited with at least 2-3 steals and had a couple plays where he knocked the ball out of bounds off the opponent. He was everywhere.

    Cam stonewalled guys in iso. He still isn’t great with going over screens (but better I think). There were a couple times where the Celts seemingly used that or other switching opportunities to get RJ as the defender instead of Cam.

    For those of you who don’t do social media but like being aware of the stuff I write, I just started up a free weekly newsletter

    Subscribed 😉

    “That’s because he’s not really a true point guard, as confirmed by his assist numbers.”

    Brunson is averaging 7.7 assists vs. 1.7 turnovers per 36 and is 16th in AST% in the NBA, on a list that includes ball dominant #1’s like Luka, Giannis, Jokic, Harden, Siakam, and LeBron. It’s silly to compartmentalize players into nonexistant stereotypes like “true point guard” when that term has very little meaning in today’s NBA. He’s as much of a true PG as nearly every team has.

    Last post. Randle & RJ are looking very good inside the arc. If they get their shot back our offense starts looking very good.

    I’m concerned they’ve benefitted a lot from missing Cs the last 2 games, but we all know that 3s are volatile and 2s less so.

    Randle .538 TS% & RJ .526 TS% while both are still sub-.300 from 3. This is very good if we’re projecting longterm. I’ll throw some numbers in my spreadsheet later to calculate TS% at different 3p%.

    This is pretty much who I thought we were. Don’t see anything overly discouraging. We’ll tread water for 30-40 games, then hopefully have a nice run, then go back to treading water. That’s the recipe for 44 wins. (I imagine it’s more clear now how one could be optimistic about the over/under while still being pessimistic about the future.)

    Meanwhile, score 1 for thin slicing. Randle’s behavior at the end of the opener in Memphis was indeed more predictive than his productive stats. The cheap shot he administered late in the game is exhibit Z. Ever since things got tough in the Atlanta series he’s shown he doesn’t have the head for this. He desperately needs to be a beta, and I don’t expect him to rehab his trade value any time soon.

    So here we are at a very “chalk” 4-5 record. Our next 11 games are as follows:

    @MIN (L)
    @BKN (?)
    vs. DET (W)
    Vs. OKC (W)
    @ UTA (W)
    @ DEN (L)
    @ GSW (L)
    @ PHX (L)
    @ OKC (W)
    vs. POR (?)
    vs. MEM (?)

    So I see 4-4 with three games that should determine whether we are 10-10 or above/below .500.

    My gut feeling is that we are going to be something like 8-12 by then and the Fire Thibs voices will grow louder.

    Who would we be favored against on the road?

    Detroit, Houston, Orlando?

    Is that the list?

    I am enjoying the season so far other than the Mitch injury. No surprises.

    Alex Caruso with a supreme triple-double: 11 rebounds, 11 assists, and 11 field goals attempted (he missed 10 of them).

    “Who would we be favored against on the road?

    Detroit, Houston, Orlando?

    Is that the list?”

    Maybe IND, SAS, and eventually UTA when they realize they’re tanking….but yeah, it’s a short list indeed…

    Caruso was a +15. Major David Eckstein energy.

    We play Detroit, OKC and Utah the 11-15th so
    I guess we will find out.

    People really don’t believe in regression, huh?

    Who would we be favored against on the road?

    Detroit, Houston, Orlando?

    Indiana, OKC, Washington, Charlotte, Lakers, Sacramento

    At least a couple others when everything shakes out.

    @MIN (L)
    @BKN (?)
    vs. DET (W)
    Vs. OKC (W)
    @ UTA (W)
    @ DEN (L)
    @ GSW (L)
    @ PHX (L)
    @ OKC (W)
    vs. POR (?)
    vs. MEM (?)

    So I see 4-4 with three games that should determine whether we are 10-10 or above/below .500.

    GSW & Denver have both been struggling. Denver can’t play defense and has an underwhelming bench unit so far.

    If we’re not sure what kind of team we are until 20 games in, then I’m not sure it’s useful to project out to 20 games. Otherwise, why wait?

    There’s also a big difference between 10-10 with narrow wins against bad teams and blowout losses to good teams and 10-10 with a close losses to the good teams and blowout wins against the bad.

    EB,

    1) I would seriously doubt that we’d be betting favorites vs. WAS. LAL, or SAC on the road. Let’s check back when those games come up.

    2) The purpose of projecting out to 20 games is simply to consider what might happen. It’s just for fun, a best guess if you will. I don’t think we will win in Denver or GSW, but sure, anything is possible. But after a while you run out of adjustments and you are who you are. Same for teams that are currently overachieving (say, UTA, ) and underachieving (say, MIA, BKN).

    And the 20-game thing is just to give players time to stabilize statistically and Thibs time to make adjustments to the lineup/rotation and game plan based on enough actual game film to review. He’s already tinkered quite a bit, and that will probably continue, especially with the Mitch and Grimes injuries.

    But with what I’ve seen thus far, it seems like we will play to chalk with some variance in certain games. We’ll occasionaly lose to an OKC and beat a MEM, but those will balance out. The key to our season (i.e whether we finish above or below .500) will be how we play vs. the non-contending but non-tanking teams…and while the list of those teams are still not completely determined, I think they will include teams like CHI, DAL, WAS, LAL, SAC. But I don’t see a team that can finish much above .500 no matter what happens. We just don’t have the shooting, or the high-level talent, or the defensive personnel.

    in the immediate future, it’s gonna be hard to focus on much else but just how many three point makes we allow a game…

    allowing 15 threes a game is going to make each game against even a marginal team (just like ours) difficult to win…

    if i were to be worried about the team, it would be our perimeter defense…what ever is going on right now is not working well…

    it can’t all be evian’s fault, can it?

    jalen brunson is a little worse than i expected…he’s slow moving forward, backwards and sideways…great composure and body control, just takes a while to get anywhere…

    the RJ is a good defender notion has worn off for me, not sure why i thought i was seeing something with my eyes is such contrast to what his stats display…no more…still glad for his contract, no doubt he’ll get his points, hopefully we can flip him…

    i have given up on RJ for the moment…not just the low assist to usage rate (somehow i though he would make the game easier for others), nor his inefficient shooting (he may actually be turning that around)…him and jalen are both just too darn slow to stay with a lot of other guards and small forwards…

    weirdly enough it now seems like quik (who can’t shoot straight right now at all, he’s even having trouble from the line now) and cam reddish?!?! are our best perimeter defenders…

    julius is playing like a chicken with its head cut off out there…lots of energy (positive and negative), but not really in control of the flow of it…

    ironically enough, monday we so happen to play the 2nd worst team in the league regarding giving up successful shots from behind the arc…

    geo, it is definitely part of the team’s strategy but my guess is that Thibs expects better perimeter defense than what he’s seeing. His defensive scheme is very rotation-dependent and our guys haven’t been great in rotating back to shooters after hedging and helping inside. Hauser and Smart were pretty wide open on all of their attempts. So was Wade when we played the Cavs. Love too, although he also used some crafty footwork to create space. I doubt that Thibs game plan calls for leaving catch and shoot types like Wade and Hauser open.

    But that’s also why the Celts and Cavs are a handful. They have a great combo of spot-up shooters and iso players who can both get to the rim and pull up from anywhere. It’s pick your poison when you match up like we do.

    Apparently, Boston attempts more threes than any team in the league. I’m not sure we have the right personnel to stop that sort of attack. It was another game where kept pace most of the time with a good team but couldn’t up in the end.

    Yeah.

    I think basically all basketball analysis ends with one fact.

    Some players are a lot better than others.

    Comments are closed.