Knicks Morning News (2022.10.13)

Not going to worry all that much about a break down in a preseason game. The only two things to take out of this, I think, are that Julius is for the most part playing within the office, which is really good. And Cam just completely blew whatever shot he had at being in the rotation. I’ve been skeptical of him since we got him, but wanted to hope that the coaching staff couldn unlock something in him, but I think he just stinks. Our front office falls way too in love with pedigree and athletic traits, which is how we wind up with him or with Emmanuel Mudiay or a bunch of these other reclamation projects that don’t pan out.

Randle didn’t look particularly *crazy* last night, just out of his depth skill-wise when forced to lead. Brunson was basically bottled up, so the offense looked down the flowchart to Randle and RJ to make things happen. Randle made some familiar and confused moves as field general, but it never seemed like he was demanding that role (like in The Before Times) or that he was eager to fill it.

Thanks, KBA. Just poor play then, when called to have a more prominent role on offense. Team looked a little tired, maybe Thibs is pushing them hard in practices. At least Randle played well in the 1st half. 😉

@ChrisChilds001:
Listen this Draymond thing is nothing! Good thing footage never got out of our Knicks practices and locker room that was real pressure 😂🤐
https://twitter.com/ChrisChilds001/status/1578418048566177792

LOL! The 90s Knicks, forever in my heart! 🙂

I’m a big RJ skeptic but so far the hard work this offseason looks to have paid off. The great thing is he is fully aware of what exactly he has to improve on to get his efficiency up and that is paying dividends.

Ofc we should wait until around 20 games to see if its real but its been encouraging so far.

Not going to worry all that much about a break down in a preseason game.

Worrying about 1 game is a big part of what we do around here.

LOL, Cyber. It’s funny because it’s true.

2 Things:
1. That video of Hoyas trying to name Ewing’s Knicks teammates is GOLD! Why they do Gerald Wilkins like that though?? Random fact- he was the player who made me commit to Knicks Fandom after following the team because I’m a Hoyas fan
2. Cam Reddish. *deep sigh* One one hand, you would think it’s great to have end of bench guys like him, Sims, and Deuce. I guess it is, but it shouldn’t be. Last night was a great example of his motor concerns. Yea, he turned it on in the 4th- but the rest of his time on the court troubled me. And it’s as simple and mundane as his off the ball play. There were a few times where the play called for him to stand in the corner, and he stood completely still- hands on his knees a couple of times too. He needs to understand that a guy of his talent level needs to always be a threat. Guys like Reggie, Steph, and Shuttlesworth were always moving. Even on plays that had then standing in the corner, they moved enough to let the defense know they were there without leaving that general area. Maybe it’s because Cam isn’t used to it, but I was very disappointed seeing his lack of threatening movement. He doesn’t look or act like he WANTS it (pause). Or that scoring comes so easy one on one, that he doesn’t have to really work for it. On the bright side though, it raises the probability of the Knicks retaining him at a reasonable cost- unless another team just throws a bag at him.

Read or skip. Other posters here do it way better, but FWIW:

RJ — did most of what many of us want him to do. He shot 50% from the field, 6/7 from the line (woohoo) but only 1/5 from 3. Two (categories) out of three ain’t bad, and he never put his head down to try and take over the game. If RJ had come back in the 4th, we might have won this one. I’m glad Thibs avoided the temptation.

Randle — likewise, did what many of us want. Julius played within himself for the most part of the game 5/10 from the field, 3/6 from three, 8 boards (all D) and 5 assists. He only started to resemble Bad Julius when Brunson was so clearly negated as an initiator on offense. I don’t blame Randle for that; there was nowhere else for the team to go. To me (so far) Julius seems “right in the head” over three (meaningless) games (with no one in the stands, yet, ha). Overall, when he plays this way, and the other two guys — Brunson/RJ — are cooking, Randle’s points feel almost like bonus-surprises. I’m not saying that’s the best design, but Randle looks willing (for now) to make that happen.

Mitch — made everyone smile. My seven year old daughter watching with me literally said about Mitch, “Who is that giant out there with the other guys. Is that fair?” Mitch didn’t dominate *that* completely but what does completely even mean. He was 3/5 from the field with 8 rebounds, 6OR, 4 blocks, and … he hit both free throws (!). Mitch looked very comfortable out there. He is now my daughter’s favorite player.

E4 — quiet first game back for him. To my eye he looked a bit lackadaisical on D (and I like him) but he did have a steal and a couple of plays where he managed to get in the way properly (Ha). Shot only 3/9 and 2/5 from three, but I suspect that will improve. Looked like he had a ton of new ink on one leg, but I’m not sure he’s scaring anyone with it b/c, you know: Frenchie.

Jalen — As falls Jalen Brunson, so falls Wichita Falls (or something like that). I’m not worried, but this is the kind of game from him that may frustrate us longterm. He was feisty, clearly hustling, but the defense was just too big and strong for him. His shot was way off, 4/14, 3 assists, 2 turnovers. He just looked manhandled out there for much of the game. Lingering questions being: It happens? or Buyer’s remorse? Time will tell.

IQ — oof. 4/18 from the field 2/7 from three. I love the guy, but he looked lost last night. Some here have already given up on IQ as a point guard. They wish Quickley could go back to playing off the ball and pouring in threes from the logo. I’m not (quite) there yet, but IQ honestly looks like he has no (I mean no) new improvement on his handle or any new moves going to the hoop this year. If IQ has hit his ceiling as a PG, then I too might want to see him launching threes at all times instead of slowly poking around the key looking for space where there is none and then calling for fouls. It’s not pretty.

Obi — an interesting game for him. This would have been one for Obi to blow it open like we’ve all been waiting. In the game thread, I think Z-man pointed to Obi’s lack of shot creation as evidence of his ceiling. Fair point. It’s true Obi did nothing to “lead” the second unit or get hoops on his own, but maybe some of that is mental? Hear me out. For all his showboating, Obi does not yet have the same ego as RJ to say, “Gimme the damn ball.” I don’t know if that’s because Thibs has forbid him from doing so or if he’s just not that guy. All will be revealed. As is, Obi was good at what we’ve already seen — dunks, running the floor, and he seems improved on defensive positioning. Sadly, though, with him and Hart defending, it seemed like the basket was way too easy for Indy to find. Mitch must be grinning from the bench. PS (from the department of deep neurotic fandom) Obi did tweak his knee/leg at one point and was limping there for a bit. No clear effects later in the game, but worth noting (in deadly fear of any injury to this man’s wheels).

Hart — Behold what we were promised. The whole package wasn’t there early on in this game, but he later drained a three and finished with 10 boards and 5 assists in 22 minutes. Honestly, Hart even had a couple other beautiful passes that could/should have been easy buckets but the recipients were too weak at the hoop. Yes, indeed, Hart could/should be very good for us. I noticed also that he is yelling the entire time out there. Not sure I like that, but he’s looking to climb pretty high up in our team’s little social hierarchy. We’ll see if the other guys buy in.

Sims — For a bit there, Hart looked, well, boring and slow, so Sims had his chance to be the guy that made us forget. It didn’t happen. Sims still looks like the most agile huge guy on our planet. I always forget how tall/big he is since he runs the floor like a guard, but he was nothing special last night and even got bottled up in the backcourt a couple times while trying to advance the ball. Not a tragedy by any means; just no decision.

Cam — IMO Last night Cam Reddish proved (finally) he will never be a productive New York Knick. He had ample chances in 22 minutes, played poorly in all phases of the game. 3/10 from the field; 1/6 from three. 2 turnovers. I don’t wanna pile on the guy, but he just didn’t have it, and his mistakes were too familiar from previous games. Cam had one flashy drive to the hoop, but even that looked like a playground thing more than him being in the flow of any offense. Thibs gave Cam opportunity. Cam made the least of it.

Deuce — Likewise, Deuce had a chance for a big game last night and came up short. 1/6 from the field 0/3 from three. 1 assist; 1 turnover. I hear the praise for his lock-down defense, but not much was on display last night.

Thibs — credit where credit is due. He played all the guys. Got us some information on ones we wanted. He also resisted the temptation to bring the starters back when we fell behind. Thibs also rested Derrick Rose (who was sorely missed). Good job. Just because I’m a Knicks fan, I will complain that he seems to have no idea how to make in-game adjustments if the offensive game plan fails, but … I digress.

We’re all fans and will follow things and pay close attention and root … but there’s just very little here.

I totally agree that one preseason game means nothing in the long haul.

My take on Obi is not based on one preseason game.

I will continue to say that Obi does not have the ability to be an effecive top 6 in rotation player on a contending team. He’s in a perfect role right now…energy guy off the bench. The notion that the team would be improved if Randle was traded and Obi replaced him in the starting lineup makes zero sense to me. Might be more aesthetically pleasing, but it wouldn’t work, not with Mitch on the court at the same time.

Agree with everything KBA said and agree with E that there’s just not much to be gleaned here, but bigger picture it seems pretty safe to say Cam Reddish is who we thought he was before we traded for him.

That series of transactions looked dumb when they were made and in hindsight looks like an abomination. I don’t want to hear about how they weren’t great but aren’t a big deal–if you’re going to choose a “hybrid” strategy that basically eliminates any margin for error, sorry but you have to nail the small-to-medium stuff. If you don’t like that, tank for Wemby.

Sadly, I also think I’m done holding out hope that Deuce McBride will ever become a thing. He brings a certain confidence to his offensive game that belies the fact that there just doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of skill there.

No harm, no foul because he was taken with a 2nd round pick we were essentially able to double at basically no cost. Isn’t it nice to accumulate picks such that it isn’t a huge deal when you inevitably miss on some?

Last season the team definitely would’ve improved if Randle was traded because Randle was terrible. He was literally less efficient than Ricky Davis was for the Cavs when they were blatantly tanking for LeBron. You don’t have to think Obi is a future hall of famer to acknowledge this obvious truth–teams are better when terrible players are removed from them.

Randle, of course, has the opportunity to change this going forward. The early returns look good, but I would pump the brakes on victory laps based on 13 point preseason games against tanking teams.

At this time Randle definitely seems like the superior shot creator, but we also don’t really want Randle creating a lot of shots ideally because he’s not very good at it. So it can be the case that Randle is a better 1st/2nd option while Obi is still the better fit for the future. I

haven’t seen a convincing case that being a better bad 1st/2nd option is worth a whole lot. I would much rather have Mikal Bridges than Ricky Davis even though Ricky Davis was a Twenty Point Scorer and Mikal, as of now, is not.

Whatever “improvement” Randle is over Toppin is counterproductive anyway, so to me it’s irrelevant. I will continue to hold to the position I’ve had since pretty much the time I started posting, which is that I do not want empty calorie mercs adding marginal wins to this team’s record.

I do agree that Toppin tops out at an energy bench guy. Useful player, not yet even in The Athletic’s Tier 5 (*), though he probably belongs there.

(*) Which means, essentially (too lazy to cut and paste the actual definition, though that might change as the day goes on), “brings higher than replacement equity to a championship-caliber team, but that’s it.” Grimes, Barrett, and Quickley are currently in said Tier 5.

Just like in Summer League, bad/negative signs in preseason are more important than good ones…

If Brunson will be defended so physically all regular season long they’ll better find other ways to start the offense to mix things and ease his burden. Randle was mostly in control, but everytime I watch him pushing the ball up I feel chills down my spine.
D-Rose will be very handy in those circumstances, IQ less so if he doesn’t stop gunning like the ghost of World B. Free. While improved as a distributor I still think he’s best fitted for a microwave role.
And no, as much as I love Deuce’s dogged defense, he’s not the answer at backup-PG, not now and maybe never…

Reddish… I’m sorry for him, great talent, great skills, perfect body for modern basketball, but it’s hard to imagine him figuring things out. Lackadaisical on defense, deplorable in his shot selection (even when he scores) and unable to do anything that acknowledge basketball as a team game.

Randle looks in a different world “mentally” than a year ago, the issues were effort, behaviour and body language, never talent so let’s hope he’ll continue this way.

RJ will make us happy, same as Mitch and Obi.

I-Hart, like JB, needs to learn to play with the other guys, but I like his BB-IQ. His passing and vision on offense are really good and his rim protection, while unspectacular and less frightening than Mitch’s, is always “vertical”, based on position and tecnique over physical ability.

P.S. I’m eager to watch Grimes…

In today’s NBA, it seems that you absolutely need 3 shot creators in the starting lineup to be a playoff team. As to the other two, if one is a lob threat, the other has to be a 3-pt specialist. If your starting C is someone like Jokic or Embiid (or AD or Giannis when they play the 5) then you can get away with a guy like Obi at the 4.

If you put Obi out there with Brunson, RJ, Mitch, and either Fournier or Grimes, you are going to have massive spacing issues.

You hear Thibs talking all the time about drawing doubles and spraying the ball. There’s only one guy on our team that draws doubles, and that’s Julius. Last year he made the wrong play time after time when being doubled. That’s a fixable problem.

Changing Obi into a shot creator that commands doubles is not a fixable problem, certainly not in the short run. He just doesn’t have that capability right now. Seems like only his stans don’t see that.

And I hope this isn’t interpreted as Obi-bashing. I LOVE the kid! He’s a very valuable player IN THE CORRECT ROLE! And the bench mob of him, IQ, Rose, Grimes and Hart will be very fun to watch and should kick the ass of other teams’ bench mobs. We need that!

You really see the difference in approach with the Pacers. They have probably a better young nucleus than the Knicks with Hali, Mathurin, and Duarte, yet they’re still going to tank for ping-pong balls. The Knicks, instead, have ported on to the young guys a group of pointless mercs (Randle, Fournier, DRose) (*) who were available to them virtually entirely because they aren’t shopping in the right aisle and so there was little competition. The Pacers, needless to say, do not do this — nor really would any other team.

The odds are very high that the Pacers will be leaving the Knicks in their jetstream within 2-3 years.

(*) Brunson is kind of a hybrid here, a better player and younger than those guys, but not really a difference maker to any great degree, and certainly not the right guy for the Knicks at the all-in price they had to spend to get him.

>If Brunson will be defended so phisically all regular season long they’ll better find other ways to start the offense. Randle was mostly in control, but everytime I watch him pushing the ball up I feel chills down my spine.<

The good news is that if the game plan is to lock down Brunson, Randle is not going to be getting double teamed as much and things should be easier for RJ also.

It's not like we want defenses to be able to lock down Brunson, but when they did that to Randle in the playoffs and again last year there was no one else right behind him to take over. So he would force bad shots and passes. Now we have more options.

“I do not want empty calorie mercs adding marginal wins to this team’s record.”

Julius Randle is on a 4-year contract extension on the assumption that he would be a core player on a winning team. He’s not an empty calorie merc in the same sense as Burks, or Noel, or Kemba, or even Derrick Rose.

The lane is already too packed for Brunson to be at his best. Thibs simply has no conception of unpacking the paint to unleash people and things and to the extent he does, the idea is emasculated by his obsession with rim protection.

It’s not like we want defenses to be able to lock down Brunson, but when they did that to Randle in the playoffs and again last year there was no one else right behind him to take over. So he would force bad shots and passes. Now we have more options.

I agree and that’s a very good news.

I still suffer from a bad case of Swirling Dervish Randle PTSD though (still, he’s been good so far)…

“Julius Randle is on a 4-year contract extension on the assumption that he would be a core player on a winning team. He’s not an empty calorie merc in the same sense as Burks, or Noel, or Kemba, or even Derrick Rose.”

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And as warned from even the time that he was going “well,” that assumption is badly flawed. (*)

Julius Randle is pretty much the textbook definition of “empty calorie merc.”

(*) Looks like we’re in for another Knickerblogger day of claims that Leon Rose’s assumptions are somehow authoritatively self-ratifying.

(EDIT: I forgot to include Randle as an Athletic Tier 5er.)

My major takeaway from last night is that Mathurin looks like a beast. Small sample size but he is a live wire.

As for the Knicks, my 20 game wait and see mode activation is feeling very relaxing right now.

“Last season the team definitely would’ve improved if Randle was traded because Randle was terrible.”

Your assumption seems to be that literally anyone…Obi, Feron Hunt, anyone, could have been plugged in and played better and we would have won more games. Of course, we have no proof for that, and I think it’s one of the most shallow takes ever expressed on this blog. But rather than escalate the conversation, I’ll just say that while I agree that Randle was terrible as a #1 option, plugging a “more efficient” 7th guy or worse into the #1 option role would almost certainly result in that player being the worst #1 option in the league who is even worst than Randle was. Obi would have absolutely sucked in that role. You have to be blind not to see it.

This is now Randle’s 4th season as a Knick. Calling him a “merc” at this point is dumb.

I mean, is Brunson a “merc.” Or is “merc” or reserved for free agents that you personally don’t like?

A “merc” is a free agent we pick up for one or maybe 2 seasons who the team has no long term plan of being here. Randle had a disasterous season last year but the team gave him a 4 year contract so clearly they wanted him here long term at the time. That is not a “merc.”

RE Grimes: I’m not sold he’s the answer at all, but I do wanna see him, like Max does. IMO, if Grimes and Rose had played instead of Deuce and Cam, the game would have gone differently.

RE “Obi-bashing”: As a confirmed stan, I’m not interpreting you that way at all, Z-man. Absolutely agree the Kid has to show another gear or stay in his lane.

RE Pacers: At least as of last night, that Mathurin kid can really play. I wonder if RJ has also/ever looked that way to opposing teams in such small samples.

“You really see the difference in approach with the Pacers. They have probably a better young nucleus than the Knicks with Hali, Mathurin, and Duarte, yet they’re still going to tank for ping-pong balls.”

Guys like Hield and Turner won’t add wins?

How about role players like Galloway, T.J. McConnell, Daniel Theis?

They have a mix of young players with upside, relatively young veterans, and veterans that won’t be around long term but will be part of the rotation this year and help add wins. As players develop they may shift the lineup, make trades, and they’ll continue drafting.

The main thing that matters is not having older players who are declining or close to declining on long contracts that can’t be moved. Then you are stuck with someone that’s not part of the solution for a long time.

Randle is young enough to be productive for the duration of his contract. The issue with him is getting his head on straight and playing the right way, not his age. If we drafted him back when LA drafted him would we feel better about it?

Fournier will be moveable after this year. If we didn’t have him we have enough depth at that position where the number of wins would not change much. Some would argue we’d win more games with Grimes starting. He’s not costing enough ping pong balls to change the probabilities in any meaningful way if at all.

E, it’s a quibble over semantics, but to me, a “merc” is not considered to be a core member of a team going forward. It’s a guy who temporarily fills a role in order to tide a team over until it can find a longer-term solution. Randle is maybe a bad long-term investment in a core player, but he’s not a stop-gap.

And at his salary number, he can be a #3 option and be a positive asset, whether to keep or in a trade. As a #2, he’s not overpaid but a bad fit. He is simply not suited to be a #1, but isn’t paid like one either.

“I mean, is Brunson a “merc.” Or is “merc” or reserved for free agents that you personally don’t like?”

Merc = A player that has reached puberty, is close to his peak level of performance, and good enough to add a few wins and disrupt our desire to go 0-82 until we draft 2-3 superstars.

“Guys like Hield and Turner won’t add wins? ”

They’ve been trying to trade Turner for a year and a half and will do it in season to help their tank.

“E, it’s a quibble over semantics, but to me, a “merc” is not considered to be a core member of a team going forward.”

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OK, but the Knicks make mercs core members of their team. That’s the problem here.

You’re basically indirectly saying what I’m saying, which is that on normal teams, core players are not mercs. (As a matter of philosophy, not semantics.)

“They’ve been trying to trade Turner for a year and a half and will do it in season to help their tank.”

And we’ve been looking to move Randle and Fournier, but somehow their inability to find the right deal and then add other older veterans to play off the bench is OK and ours is not?

The Jazz still have Conley, Rudy Gay, Jordan Clarkson and added Cody Zeller… Is Ainge a moron too or is he searching for deals that achieve his goals and selectively adding and keeping some veterans to help develop the kids he already has and bring those intangibles to the locker room?

“I don’t want to hear about how they weren’t great but aren’t a big deal–if you’re going to choose a “hybrid” strategy that basically eliminates any margin for error, sorry but you have to nail the small-to-medium stuff. If you don’t like that, tank for Wemby.”

You may not want to hear about it, but it’s true that it isn’t a big deal, particularly part 1 of the “series of transactions” (as if they should be linked, even though there is really no connection between the trade-out of #19 (dumb but no big deal) and the Cam trade (REALLY dumb, but also no big deal).)

If you want to go on thinking that picking Kai Jones or Keon Johnson or Jalen Johnson or Usman Garuba or Josh Christopher would have had anything but a marginal impact on this team’s future, go right on ahead with that fantasy! (and let’s not play the cherry-picking game with Bones Hyland or Ayo Dosunmu).

And at his salary number, he can be a #3 option and be a positive asset, whether to keep or in a trade.

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He’s not a positive asset. The Knicks can’t give him away. As far as whether he will ever become one, I can’t stop people from being optimistic or expressing optimism — but there’s zero evidence he will be and other association people don’t think he will be either. If they did, someone would trade for him. (A projected positive asset has value; asset values aren’t just based on current status. If a team thought he could become what KB dreamers think he can become, he’d have affirmative positive value, even if he wasn’t exactly that thing today.)

“OK, but the Knicks make mercs core members of their team. That’s the problem here.

You’re basically indirectly saying what I’m saying, which is that on normal teams, core players are not mercs. (As a matter of philosophy, not semantics.)”

Not really, because I think the jury is still out on Randle and you have already passed judgment. And I live in the real world (this team is trying to win right now) rather than the fantasy world (this team should be tanking for Wemby.)

Like you, I’d rather the fantasy be the real world, but it isn’t. So the only relevant question is: Can Juliur Randle have a positive place in what the FO and Thibs are trying to do right now and in the next 3-4 years at his contract numbers? In other worda, can he be a valuable core piece on a playoff team on his current deal? You are clearly a resounding NO! TNFH seems to be a “most likely not but there’s a puncher’s chance.”

I am a “very possibly, if he plays like he has thus far this preseason and has the right players on the floor with him.”

I really think that Zach Randolph is a very close analog to Julius Randle. Most here had given up on him ever being a positive core player on a winning team, yet he went on to Memphis and had some excellent years and was beloved there.

Incinerating the 19th pick is no big deal, but possessing an “extra” 19th or 23rd pick is the stuff of genius.

Nice work if you can get it.

Not really, because I think the jury is still out on Randle and you have already passed judgment.

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And again, you’re just saying the jury is still out. These players are judged by a jury of association personnel people on 30 teams every day, and … well … the jury has loudly rendered its verdict.

“He’s not a positive asset. The Knicks can’t give him away. As far as whether he will ever become one, I can’t stop people from being optimistic or expressing optimism — but there’s zero evidence he will be and other association people don’t think he will be either.”

There is ample evidence…3 of his last 5 years…that he can be a positive player at his current salary numbers. He doesn’t have degenerative knee issues and isn’t 34 years old. He has simply been miscast as a #1 option for the last 3 years. He’s not cut out for that. Nor is he getting paid like that. If he was on a max deal, I’d 100% agree with you as to his future prospects. For now, I’m not as much optimistic as I am hopeful. Those are two different things.

“Your assumption seems to be that literally anyone…Obi, Feron Hunt, anyone, could have been plugged in and played better and we would have won more games”

And your assumption seems to be that in the absence of Randle, someone inevitably would’ve had to take on his exact role, as if every team is mandated to have a designated high-usage bricker.

In fact, there are plenty of examples of teams with successful offenses that didn’t give *anyone* as high a usage rate as Randle, he of the Ricky Davisian 90 TS+, had last year.

It would be perfectly legal, smart even, to simply redistribute Randle’s shots among all of the other players as opposed to simply force feeding Obi Toppin or Feron Hunt twenty extra shots per game.

To be clear, I don’t even think the other players would’ve posted good efficiency numbers on those extra shots. However, I am 100% sure they could’ve beaten a 90 TS+ on the extra shots, because virtually everyone beats a 90 TS+.

“(as if they should be linked, even though there is really no connection between the trade-out of #19 (dumb but no big deal) and the Cam trade (REALLY dumb, but also no big deal).)”

It seems your objection to my linking of the transactions is that they were actually two separate, dumb transactions instead of one. Ok. Works for me. Doesn’t exactly make a strong case for the whole “they were really no big deal” thing, though, as I would think there’s a number of stupid moves: size of the deal correlation.

“(and let’s not play the cherry-picking game with Bones Hyland or Ayo Dosunmu)”

Often times front offices swing and miss for understandable reasons and people should be reasonable when evaluating those cases in hindsight. This is why I don’t list taking Cleanthony Early over Nikola Jokic among Phil Jackson’s many, many failures.

However, when a front office implicitly takes the position that there is *no one in the whole god damn draft* worth a rookie-scale deal, I’m damn well gonna feel free to hold it against them when that turns out to be not only false, but false to a degree I would find hilarious if I didn’t root for this stupid team (3 players taken 19th or later made all-rookie teams, and far more than that look promising).

It’s fine if people want to be hopeful, just as it’s equally fine to note that the association personnel fraternity does not share in that hope or at the very least isn’t willing to pay anything for it.

People buy fixer-uppers, too. Fixer-uppers can and do have value. Randle isn’t even seen as a fixer-upper at this point. It’s obvious why.

To me, Grimes is a real wildcard. He shows some positive progress in Summer League (I’m not talking about “pointzzz” but confidence, ability to initiate the offense, overall all-around game) and it’s a shame he missed these games.

Thibs loves him and if the trust is well placed sooner than later he will start, immediately raising the defensive floor of the starters, giving us the “designated defender” on opposing’s best backcourt/wing player (Reggie’s former role) and allowing us to switch E4 to the bench unit, where he and IQ can rain threes, with D-Rose and I-Hart acting as initiators/distributors and Obi as the Dunking Energy-Bunny…

Probabily the bench can lose some but the starting five will gain more (and the bench will still be one of the league’s best).

Yes I’m really, really curious to watch him…

The most surprising thing (so far) about Julius/Thibs seems to be *Message Received.* Yes, Randle will still have whirling dervish games in the future, but Thibs does seem to have told him not to play like one by design. Such a change is basically “From Knickerblogger-to-God’s-ears” and is interesting and encouraging.

“(and let’s not play the cherry-picking game with Bones Hyland or Ayo Dosunmu)”

I think what you meant to say was:

“Let’s not focus on the good players that we’re still available when Leon Rose tossed that draft pick onto the trash heap, because we wouldn’t have drafted those guys anyways and could only have drafted a bad player, because that’s what suits my narrative”

This same philosophy applies to Tari Eason I suppose, correct? Who coulda known there would be a good player available with the #11 pick?

“Let’s not focus on the good players that we’re still available when Leon Rose tossed that draft pick onto the trash heap, because we wouldn’t have drafted those guys anyways and could only have drafted a bad player, because that’s what suits my narrative”

As previously indicated, 1) there is zero probability that the Knicks would have drafted either Bones or Ayo at #19. They passed on those guys several times. The only guys you should assume they might have been interested in are guys that were already picked. So if you want to fantasize about missed opportunity for not picking “anyone” at #19 in that draft, at lease keep it real. And for the billionth time, we didn’t throw it in the trash heap right then, we just exchanged it for a future, likely worse but possibly better opportunity. 2) when that CHA pick conveys at some time in the future, you won’t see me looking at the best players available at that slot to justify why it was a smart move to trade out.

“1) there is zero probability that the Knicks would have drafted either Bones or Ayo at #19.”

If this is true, how is it possibly exculpatory? This sounds way more like something someone in the lolKnicks camp would say–“honestly it doesn’t matter that we did X stupid thing because in the absence of it we just would’ve done Y stupid thing.” It’s downright nihilistic!

It is of course possible that if in this case they didn’t do X stupid thing (trading the pick for nothing), they would’ve done Y stupid thing (picking a bad player at 19). How does this lead one to the conclusion that X stupid thing was not in fact stupid?

KBA, nice analysis, agree with mostly all your points. A few minor additions:

Watching Cam on D was fascinating. He’d jump around guarding his man, and then clearly start to wonder about what’s for dinner (or probably should he buy that new skin for Fortnite) and be just standing still while the guy cuts for a pass and a layup. When the moment matters, he’s always two steps late. It’s bizarre.

I would say all our point guards were fails. Brunson got bottled up, but did nothing to make his teammates better, either. Both IQ and Deuce ran around like crazy, but mainly did a lot of running into the D and then pulling back, dribble-dribble-dribble. A lot of under-10-seconds-left on the clock before they found someone to pass to, usually someone not open on the perimeter. Very last year, but then it was Randle doing that.

I’m going to go out on a limb and put part of the problem on the incredibly unimaginative offensive sets they run, but it still feels like someone like Rose would have found ways to make something out of nothing.

So, since there was no chance they were going to draft a good player, the thing to do was clearly to devalue the pick then trade the pick for a guy with a long track record of being terrible.

Look, here’s the thing: Leon Rose’s weakness as a GM is the draft. The root of this problem is that he only seems to think there are a vanishingly small amount of good prospects in every draft, and that it’s not worth taking on flyers on guys who are not in that tiny subset. That’s a highly flawed way to think about the draft.

He has this cutesy approach to it where he thinks he’s going to make these paper clip trades that amount to more down the line, but none of these trades ever amounts to much other than heavily protected future picks that nobody really wants.

You have a better chance of hitting gold at 19, or at least hitting bronze, than you do of having success with all of this paper clip fuckery.

“Randle was mostly in control, but everytime I watch him pushing the ball up I feel chills down my spine.”

It’s funny cuz it’s true…

I think it is very reasonable and fair to criticize the Knicks’ scouting staff in evaluating draft prospects. They passed over Hali, Bane and Bones, who most here thought were excellent picks.

I also think it’s very reasonable and fair to criticize their approach to the draft in general. There may have been other ways to free up the cap space for acquiring Brunson and Hartenstein without giving up the #11 pick, or subsequently the #13 pick. How much those decisions were part of the “acquire Donovan Mitchell” strategy is unknown. Even so, there is no reason to believe that they would have used that pick on Eason. So once again it is about their scouting department, not the trading of the pick per se.

I’m personally not sold yet on Eason, but he’s looked good in preseason. But I also like our rotation from 1 to 10. Not sure if Eason would have cracked it.

“Watching Cam … jump around guarding his man, and then clearly start to wonder about what’s for dinner (or probably should he buy that new skin for Fortnite)”

Yes. Exactly this. LOL.

Maybe Eason wouldn’t have cracked the rotation now, as a rookie, but clearly this is a guy you don’t mind having as a developmental piece, at minimum, especially when you factor in (correctly, in my opinion) that Obi Toppin projects as a fun but not foundational player.

I don’t want to cherry-pick Tari Eason and Bones and Ayo and the other guys we passed on, but the point is: there were good players available both times we punted these 1RPs. At bare minimum, there were very interesting prospects available.

“It is of course possible that if in this case they didn’t do X stupid thing (trading the pick for nothing), they would’ve done Y stupid thing (picking a bad player at 19). How does this lead one to the conclusion that X stupid thing was not in fact stupid?”

First, you must know that the draft at #19 is largely a crap shoot. Even the very smartest draft gurus largely miss at that spot. Taking Keon Johnson over Bones or Ayo isn’t stupid. It would be just as “smart” in the moment as taking Bones.

And that’s the point. They squandered a low-probability shot at a good player in exchange for a lower-probability shot in the future. That’s dumb. But the most likely outcome of taking a shot at #19 is a non-rotation-level player, as was demonstrated by the shots taken at #19-24.

The by far more egregious move was trading that CHA pick (which, lo and behold, was called a first rounder over and over when it was used in the Dejounte trade by the same folks here that called it “incinerated” and likely 2 seconds) for Cam Reddish. That was an inexcusable mistake. But again, it likely had little bearing on our current rotation. The CHA pick would have simply been another future asset to include in a trade, as ATL did. Trading for Cam was an incineration, just like it would have been if we had picked and then traded Keon Johnson for him, not the original deal.

Pick-pick-pick-pick-pick-pick-pick-pick…

Merc-merc-merc-merc-merc-merc…

Does it sound like chickens and ducks in here, or is it me?

“No bearing on our current rotation” is irrelevant. You draft guys with the idea that you’re going to develop them.

It’s 3 games into pre-season and E is already in mid-season form that there is nothing that can happen to this team that will please him. Every win is termed “marginal” if anyone that we didn’t draft had anything to do with it. And god help us if Thib’s substitution patterns produced the win.

On June 9, 2019 (day before Durant’s achilles injury), we were odds on favourites to land a top 5 merc with a top 20 merc side kick in free agency, as well as odds on favourites to get a generation player with the number 1 pick. Steve Mills engineered this. I know a lot of us were optimists that day. Can’t remember where E stood.

one of my fave things to happen since al began speaking out years ago, we now have a bunch of folks calling bullshit – bullshit…

i mean, many of the posts are posted in the hopes of engaging others, so, you have to give fair leeway to what words people put down…

i know i most likely repeat myself on certain topics ad nauseum , it does drive me a little crazy when other folks do it…

so funny that so many folks whom may not have previously stepped in to point out the different idiosyncrasies that we ALL possess, and which inevitably slips in to our writing…

i just love that so many folks here feel comfortable enough to be honest with one another…

it’s good to let the mask down in public every once in a while…

i call – BULLSHIT!!!

“People buy fixer-uppers, too. Fixer-uppers can and do have value. Randle isn’t even seen as a fixer-upper at this point. It’s obvious why.”

This is a pretty tortured analogy, and frankly, I don’t know why analogies are even necessary. Randle signed an extension that seemed reasonable at the time that he signed it. Nearly everyone here but you felt that.

He preceeded to have a terrible year as a default #1 option before the 4-year guaranteed extension even kicked in. Because of that, he is RIGHT NOW at the absolute lowest possible market value that a healthy, in shape, in-his-prime, non-scandal-ridden player could be. That is beyond dispute.

However, it doesn’t take much in the way of mental gymnastics to envision his value increasing over its current level by leaps and bounds. He is, in fact, healthy, in shape, in his prime, and not scandal-ridden. He doesn’t have to do anything that he hasn’t done before or is physicaly or talent-wise incapable of doing. If he plays to the level that his contract says he should be playing (on this team, part of a 1a/1b/1c triumverate) he should be worth just as much as Brunson and RJ, who are on nearly identical AAV deals.

And depending on the year that those guys have, by this time next year we might be calling Julius the value player and the other two albatrosses.

hey raven, tomorrow is the show…i’m kind of bummed never heard back from my concert buddy…i’ve offered tics to a few shows now…

won’t do that again…

daughter may or may not show up…unlike my old ass, she has other stuff going on friday night…

still debating whether to go with boots and a hat along with my blue levis jeans and black levis shirt…the locale la santa has a nice southwestern vibe…

i don’t really western out too much, but dad had a bunch of that gear and i spent about a year in oklahoma…seems like it might be fun to dust that stuff off…

got a chance to watch this interview with jenny and the mexicats…they seem like some pretty sharp folks…

really nice work KBA 🙂

this is just too funny:

“Who is that giant out there with the other guys. Is that fair?”

i did not think we would keep him, really glad we did…great personality to go along with his play…

“JK47 says:
October 13, 2022 at 12:04
“No bearing on our current rotation” is irrelevant. You draft guys with the idea that you’re going to develop them.”

Sure. Or you don’t draft them and look at other avenues for finding players you want to develop without locking up $4mill in cap space for a few years. You fill out your roster with guys like Deuce, Keels, Sims, and Hunt and try to develop them. Or you trade picks to dump vets to free up cap space for guys like Brunson and Hart without taking on dead cap space and get several protected picks for a rainy day. (and I know this brings us to the rabbit hole of why we had Burks, Noel and Kemba on the roster in the first place.)

I think E’s point is that every team like Indiana that has a few good young players and tanks this year is destined for greatness when they all get Victor Wembanyama

Thanks, Geo. I’m late offering you a +1 about also loving B.D. and Carly in MR. ROBOT.

Have fun at your concert, but: Doesn’t that mean you will miss our do-or-die-all-important-preseason-game-against-the-Wizards? 😉

i switched over from cable (fios) to amazon for the league pass…it’s cheaper, but, during “Live” games i can’t pause, rewind or nothing…

oh well…

sadly, i’m sure i’ll catch the replay…

actually, i don’t know if i’m going to go…i don’t know…

“First, you must know that the draft at #19 is largely a crap shoot. Even the very smartest draft gurus largely miss at that spot.”

This rings hollow given that teams spend tons of money, dedicate countless hours, and hire tons of personnel pursuant to putting together 60 player big boards. They definitely don’t treat it like they might as well be picking names out of a hat, and accordingly it’s unacceptable to value picks as if they do.

It’s true that it’s hard to pick good players late in the draft, but that doesn’t excuse teams from even trying. It’s the job of an NBA franchise to identify NBA caliber talent in the draft. Oftentimes it is hard to do so, which is why front office head honchos are handsomely compensated.

I want a review, Geo. A gorgeous blonde Brit (there are three words that don’t often go together) who sings and plays the trumpet (ditto) in a salsa-flavored band (ditto again) is just too weird and fun. Look forward to finding out if it’s all true or the ultimate in internet fakery.

I think E’s point is

again, we are here to engage one another, so there’s that…

the thing though that i appreciate the most in some of E’s posts is his skill in setting the parameters of the argument…

very skillful, E’s hardly ever wrong…even when he is, he can normally figure a way to maneuver himself some how in to the right…

plus, i also have a bit of sympathy towards his private pyle – i am in a world of shit philosophy of life…

So for all you merc-quackers out there (and for the pick-chickens as well), an interesting piece in the Ringer on who has the best young core in the NBA, ranking first to last. Worth a read, since y’all seem to actually care about this (and it’d be nice if you argued about the article instead of rehashing the same tired arguments over and over and over). Here’s what it says about the Knicks:

11. New York Knicks
Stat ranking: 2nd
Expert ranking: 19th
Last year: 13th

Kram: Most teams around this portion of the rankings are powered by one transcendent youngster, like Haliburton, Young, and Ball. The Knicks don’t have anyone near that level. But what they do have is more young depth than almost any other team, with five U25 players projected to accumulate double-digit WAR over the next half decade. That’s tied for the most of any franchise, along with the team that ranks no. 1 on our list.

The Knicks, to use the old analogy, don’t have any dollar-bill players; instead, their young core consists of a handful of quarters: Immanuel Quickley (whom advanced stats absolutely adore) and Quentin Grimes in the backcourt, RJ Barrett on the wing, Mitchell Robinson and underrated backup Isaiah Hartenstein in the middle. Whether the group—particularly Quickley and Barrett, the highest-ceiling members of the quintet—can take a collective step forward this season will go a long way toward determining the Knicks’ future.

“Whether the group—particularly Quickley and Barrett, the highest-ceiling members of the quintet—can take a collective step forward this season will go a long way toward determining the Knicks’ future.”

This is the whole season really. They shouldn’t be larding it all up with mercs. Even if a youngun breaks through, the org is depriving itself of necessary ping-pong balls.

“It’s true that it’s hard to pick good players late in the draft, but that doesn’t excuse teams from even trying.”

But they DID try…and apparently succeeded…at #25. And they DID get return for that #19 pick…a chance to draft someone in a similar or better spot down the road.

Once again, trading out is being inaccurately portrayed as forfeiting the pick altogether. Same with the other trade-outs. I truly don’t get why folks keep doing that.

And once again, the decision to trade out is linked to guys with excellent reputations in their respective areas of expertise: Brock Aller and Walt Perrin. You are suggesting that they are either incompetent or being overruled by others who are incompetent.

My guess is that there are very detailed actuarial calculations being made behind the scenes. To them, it’s not as simple as “you create a 60-person big board and pick the highest rated player on your board and that’s it.” Seems to me they are accounting for every cap dollar in these calculations and are contrasting the value of making a particular pick vs. having roster flexibility, cap space and assets for future transactions. I don’t think they are making these decisions on a whim or gut feeling.

Very interesting Raven. Will read it and thanks for the tip. But Obi isn’t even mentioned?

I was going to mention their kicking Obi to the curb on this. And it’s only three letters! Hopefully an oversight they’ll rue in the future…

larding it all up with mercs.

This is a ridiculous statement. Even if RJ and IQ take a big step forward and look to be true foundational pieces on a championship contending team, a contending team with RJ And IQ would still most likely have mercs someplace on the team filling out the roster, possibly even starting.

Victor Wembayana is such a good prospect that every team tanking is going to draft him!

“But they DID try…and apparently succeeded…at #25. And they DID get return for that #19 pick…a chance to draft someone in a similar or better spot down the road.”

These were two separate picks. They got #25 via a decent trade down from #21.

Literally a few days ago you accurately characterized the CHA pick as “shitty” in the context of apologizing for the Cam Reddish trade. It can’t be “shitty” in that context and “a chance to draft someone in a similar or better spot down the road” in this one.

“You are suggesting that they are either incompetent or being overruled by others who are incompetent.”

Yeah. At least as far as this individual decision was concerned anyway. I have no earthly idea which of these possibilities is the case, as apparently even other NBA front offices aren’t clear on that front, but it’s one of them.

“I don’t think they are making these decisions on a whim or gut feeling.”

That’s all good and well, but whatever process they used to arrive at this decision sucked and that was obvious at the time.

Note: “a contending team.”

Doesn’t that Ringer piece kind of speak more to the skeptics’ case? It says we have the 11th best young core and don’t have any standout players. When you combine that with the undisputed proposition that we aren’t very good right now, that seems like exactly the kind of thing a Knickerblogger pessimist would say.

The Knicks fare reasonably well on that list, but three players are going to age out of the U25 classification this season (Robinson, Toppin, Hartenstein) and obviously a lot of teams ranked below them are in “win now” mode and don’t have a lot of U25 players on the roster. Like for instance, Milwaukee ranks 30th but I’d happily trade rosters with them.

Barring a leap from one of the other U25 guys, which is not impossible, you’d expect the Knicks to slide down this list next year. Barrett, Quickley, Sims, and Grimes would be the U25 core, plus the Knicks will likely have two 1RPs in the 2023 draft, their own and Dallas’. The Pistons and Wizards picks seem unlikely to convey.

That article refers to the Knicks’ young pieces as “quarters” rather than “dollars” and I’ve used similar terminology here– we have some nuts and bolts but not a lot of chrome and leather.

Raven, thanks much for that Ringer excerpt. Obi should get positively cranky at his omission and elevate his game.

Having good-ish players under 25 is way more fun than in so many years past.

As diehard Knick fan “Pope Alexander” would say, “Hope springs eternal.” 😉

(1) It’s the Wembanyama draft… but Scoot is really more of a 1B… and the next several guys mightve been taken #1 in 2022… but likely changes once they actually play

(2) The Knicks ended the draft with a surplus of picks… Presti is a genius when he does it… Rose is a moron for doing the same thing

(3) If you think the land the fixer-upper is built on is worth $18M and buyers only offer $16M, you don’t sell the house until there’s an $18M buyer… or whatever

“Literally a few days ago you accurately characterized the CHA pick as “shitty” in the context of apologizing for the Cam Reddish trade. It can’t be “shitty” in that context and “a chance to draft someone in a similar or better spot down the road” in this one.”

I thought we cleared that up…the #19 pick is a “shitty” pick by definition. It was shitty before we traded out of it and shitty after we traded out of it. Is that really something to try to play gotcha on?

And it’s far less duplicitous than calling the trade out an “incineration” and then saying we “wasted a first rounder” on Reddish. It’s also far less duplicitous than insinuating that we wasted “a valuable asset” on Cam while dismissing the value of all the protected picks we acquired this year.

My POV has been very consistent. What we do with non-lottery picks is not a big deal, especially when we get reasonable return for them. If you want to quibble about whether the return we got was reasonable, by all means! I actually agree that we should have gotten more for #19. However, just after that, we got what you just called “a decent trade” for #21. Same guys!

And that’s why I’m more apt to use language like “didn’t like” or “suboptimal” rather than “stupid” or “an abomination.” Obviously you are more incensed by these minor blips than I am, which is fine! Though I would think that as a long-time Knicks fan you know what actual “stupid abominations” really look like.

I’ll take 538’s ranking at #2 over J. Kyle Mann unless someone has insight into him being any good as an analyst.

Even if you disagree, a stats based site should place some merit on the stats based model rather than the analyst, no?

As specifically regards Indy’s core, I still have my reservations on Hali’s defense. And Obi is a little closer to him than I thought on draft night.

Mathurin looks like a juggernaut.

Duarte seems like a solid role player, I don’t know that he’s any better than Grimes. He probably doesn’t count as a “young” core piece. He’s 25 AKA older than every rostered Knick except Randle, Rose, & Fournier.

PD “Duplicitous” has a more negative connotation than I intended, sorry about that. Inconsistent is a better word.

“I thought we cleared that up…the #19 pick is a “shitty” pick by definition.”

This is nonsense. No other teams treat picks in this range as if they’re “shitty,” and to make matters worse 2021 was a particularly deep draft and this was noted at the time.

3 all-rookie players were available, as were many other young players that look promising. The 19th pick in the 2021 was decidedly not shitty. We traded it for a pick that definitely was shitty though, because it could easily become two seconds.

Nineteen isn’t shitty, but that aside, on the flip side people are giving Leon credit for stocking up on picks that are likely to be right around there.

Can’t have it both ways and not expect a rebuttal.

TNFH, come on, by that logic, the 40th pick in the 2014 draft was not a shitty pick because an all-time great was picked at 41. And do I really have to compile a list of all-rookie players who flopped thereafter?

Both picks were nearly identically shitty. One was definitively a 19th pick, with the less likely upside of a hit and the far more downside of a miss. The other had the retained future upside of a 15th pick in a future draft and the downside of conveying as two seconds, with the most likely outcome being something in-between. You don’t have to exaggerate the difference in value between the picks to make your point. And if you really think that the pick was massively devalued, you shouldn’t care that much that we traded it for a flyer on Cam Reddish.

If the Knicks offered RJ, IQ, Obi, and Grimes for Hali, Mathurin, and Duarte, the Pacers would laugh and hang up the phone.

You can squint and see a scenario by which RJ becomes better than Hali, but Mathurin is a distinct cut above the IQ, Obi, Grimes level. (*)

If you wonder why several of us stress ping pong balls and getting in the 4/5/6 range rather than purgatory low lottery 11/12/13, all you had to do was watch Bennedict Mathurin last night.

(*) Association math is more geometric than arithmetic — four quarters do not equal a dollar. This is NBA catechism 101 stuff.

I am somewhat loath to stir the simmering pot of chickens and ducks, but since this thread is probably a lost cause anyway, and because I can’t not hear you guys bitching at each other when I read anything else today, here are a few paragraphs stolen from Hollinger’s review of the Grizzlies.

The incredibly obvious caveat is that this is NOT analogous to the Knicks, they’re two very different teams in very different positions in the world order. I just think it’s interesting to read someone else analyzing decisions being made. So please don’t write “But the Knicks are not the Grizzlies!” That’s not the point.

Here’s a list of players the Grizzlies did not trade for in the 2022 offseason: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Deandre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant, Jae Crowder and Bojan Bogdanović.

And here’s a complete list of the outside free agents they signed: ____

The most interesting thing about the team with the league’s second-best record in 2021-22 was what it didn’t do, not what it did. Rather than doubling down and shedding future assets in a push for the title, the Grizzlies let Anderson walk in free agency, traded Melton for a late first-round pick and used their last three roster spots on relatively late draft picks instead of veteran help.

Virtually any other team in this position would have pushed to trade future picks and young players for win-now veterans, but the Grizzlies, with most of their key players still in their early 20s, are staying the course despite how close they came a year ago.

Speaking of the draft, Memphis continued its proud tradition of trading up on draft day by surrendering the 29th and 22nd picks to move up to 19th and select LaRavia, only to trade back in at No. 23 via the Melton trade and grab Roddy. Trading up has worked out very well for the Grizzlies in the past three drafts, but surrendering a late first to move up three spots seems to be pushing the value proposition to its outer limit.

Memphis also traded back into the draft in the second round to grab Chandler, effectively losing a roster spot that could have been used on a veteran with its midlevel exception (which went unused, save for the small pittance earmarked to pay Chandler).

As for the players, LaRavia and Roddy play the same position, as does one of their two first-rounders from 2021, Santi Aldama. It gives the Grizzlies multiple chances, at least, to nail the Anderson replacement, not to mention fill the hole in the starting lineup to start the season until Jaren Jackson Jr. returns from a stress fracture in his foot.

TNFH was pushing Ayo all night, as I recall, so I don’t expect this to end in anything other than a contentious draw.

If Eason is the real deal that’s not going to help either.

Counting Mitch and Harr as u-25 doesn’t seem right to me.

“E, all merc’d out says:
October 13, 2022 at 14:30
Nineteen isn’t shitty, but that aside, on the flip side people are giving Leon credit for stocking up on picks that are likely to be right around there.

Can’t have it both ways and not expect a rebuttal.”

I certainly don’t feel that any of the protected picks we have are all that great in and of itself. But I do feel that the return we got on the #11 pick plus some seconds was pretty much a wash. And before you bring it up, I agree that it was a shame that the FO couldn’t dump Kemba, Noel and Burks without sacrificing some present value. But accepting that as a reality, it was decent overall outcome.

And more broadly, rebuttals are good! I never don’t expect them and mostly value them! This site would be boring if we didn’t challenge each other to defend our POVs.

Would anyone here not trade RJ, IQ, Obi, and Grimes for Haliburton, Mathurin, and Duarte?

“I certainly don’t feel that any of the protected picks we have are all that great in and of itself. But I do feel that the return we got on the #11 pick plus some seconds was pretty much a wash.”

So three “shitty” picks are better than the 11th pick in the draft?

Is that New Math or something?

“TNFH was pushing Ayo all night, as I recall, so I don’t expect this to end in anything other than a contentious draw.”

Oh, I know he liked him and Bones too! But that’s more about Walt Perrin than trading out per se. They proved that they never would have drafted Ayo, and wouldn’t have drafted Bones before pick 34.

“Oh, I know he liked him and Bones too! But that’s more about Walt Perrin than trading out per se. They proved that they never would have drafted Ayo, and wouldn’t have drafted Bones before pick 34.”

Couched as a defense, actually an indictment.

It’s about the valuation between the CHA pick and the 19th pick, not the 19th picks value in a vacuum.

I’d bet the pick had a solid chance of converting to something higher than 19th based on where CHA was at the time.

But I still say it was a bad move. The Knicks rostered 4 players after 19. Then add Ayo, Herbert, Cam Thomas, Josh Christopher, and Bones who all looked promising last year.

On the other hand there’s the trade value to consider. Counting the hit rate of non-Knick picks between 19 and 38 (Ayo’s pick) that’s 5/17. That’s a high hit rate for the draft, but also a 70% chance the value drops to basically zero.

Holding the pick for a Dejounte-like trade potentially has more value than rostering a 6th rookie (Vildoza!!!).

Holding it for Cam has zero value, it’s a moot point not worth rehashing.

Final bit from Hollinger:

But the biggest takeaway from Memphis’ offseason is that it still retains maximal optionality. The Grizzlies can pivot in virtually any direction because they still have all their own future draft picks, a bunch of good young players and a pristine cap situation. As I noted this spring, that ironically may be part of what motivated their relative inaction this past offseason.

The process of riding out those options, and biding their time for a potential chips-in move that truly makes sense, could result in a half-step backward this season. Even if the playoff version of the Grizzlies is arguably just as potent as a year ago, the regular season one may not be; surely the bench won’t be as dominant, and there’s a giant question mark at power forward until Jackson returns. In an unforgiving Western Conference, that could push them down a bit from the heights of a year ago.

Prediction: 51-31, third in Western Conference

“So three “shitty” picks are better than the 11th pick in the draft?

Is that New Math or something?”

Each of the three picks has a different value because both the protections and the teams they come from are different. None of them taken separately is worth #11 even in what most analysts called a weaker draft. There’s also the value of creating the cap space to sign Brunson and Hartenstein outright, since Dallas (stupidly?) refused to do a sign-and-trade. Most analysts felt that the sum total was at least a wash for the Knicks.

“Couched as a defense, actually an indictment.”

And it is actually a criticism of the Perrin, which if you actually paid attention I made at the time of the Obi draft (I wanted Hali) the IQ draft (I wanted Bane.) I think Perrin is either overrated or being overruled (WWW seemed to prefer IQ, so there’s that.)

I wish you’d stop with these insinuations that I am blindly defending the FO. It really isn’t necessary to rebut specific points I am making. In fact, picking Obi over Hali was a huge mistake…far bigger than trading out of #19 in my opinion. Hali was already traded for an excellent player. What could we get for Obi right now? A top-20 protected (i.e shitty) pick? It wasn’t a total miss but it was dumb. Same with IQ. Grimes seems to be the only real hit relative to draft position, Sims too.

But you continually choose not to hear me when I say that stuff, do you? Why is that?

EB, that’s pretty much where I am. Cam was a total waste of that CHA pick, which had some value.

Would anyone here not trade RJ, IQ, Obi, and Grimes for Haliburton, Mathurin, and Duarte?

(1) Mathurin is the only potential upgrade over all of our core. I’m not sure I’d trade him for the 5 or so Knicks that separate our core from theirs. Let’s maybe wait for Mathurin to play some actual games before deciding he’s worth IQ, Mitch, Hart, RJ, etc.

(2) Hali is a wash with Obi due to Hali’s defense and Obi’s efficiency.

(3) Duarte is already 25. I’d take any of IQ, Grimes, Hart, and Mitch over him. Maybe RJ. Sims as an anchor could be something too.
———–

If Eason is the real deal that’s not going to help either.

Eason also looks, great. Perrin isn’t infallible, but he seems to be well-above average. That’s more than enough in the NBA.

There’s something to be said for not blowing the picks you make. Even if you miss some players you maintain trade value and another shot at a player in the future. Trading for stars is still a good championship strategy.
——–

So three “shitty” picks are better than the 11th pick in the draft?

Is that New Math or something?

– Detroit protection drop down to 9

– Wizards pick drops to 8

– Bucks protection is top- 4

Those aren’t shitty picks

Yes, the Charlotte trade was bad from a valuation standpoint because we should have either gotten multiple picks or gotten one with far lighter protections. But it was not a disaster; just dumb.

Trading the new pick for Cam actually was an incineration. It’s one thing to pick up these Scott Perry reclamation project types as low-salaried free agents, and another to waste even a heavily protected first round pick to gamble on such a guy proving that one season of bad college ball and two and a half seasons of mostly bad NBA ball were somehow not indicative of his future NBA stature.

“brings higher than replacement equity to a championship-caliber team, but that’s it.”

this gibberish is what you get when you let too many lawyers/b-school grads into NBA front offices

Is this player below average? No, he’s bringing higher than replacement level championship caliber equity to the holistic team structure

Speaking of Vildoza,
he’s been cut by the Bucks, signed with Beograd’s Red Star (or Crvena Zvezda if you prefers) and there’s a chance his case will end up in a FIBA tribunal because his former spanish team agreed to his NBA-buyout but claims it retain his rights in Europe.

So Vildoza won’t be available for the playoffs

Speaking of Vildoza, he’s been cut by the Bucks, signed with Beograd’s Red Star (or Crvena Zvezda if you prefers) and there’s a chance his case will end up in a FIBA tribunal because his former spanish team agreed to his NBA-buyout but claims it retain his rights in Europe.

BUT WILL HE BE IN OUR PLAYOFF ROTATION?

Alan, that’s pretty much where I am.

que up the Jim Mora “playoffs” bit..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffhiX1gDwYc

Meanwhile in Barcelona, our draft & stashed Rokas is still a backup, because the blaugranas signed Tomas Satoransky to take Calathes’ spot.

I mean, there are guys every year picked #19 or higher who get released—like Isaiah Joe just did by the Sixers. Many draftniks fell in love with Joe’s outside shot and were calling him the “sleeper” of that draft.

But still, we have the type of scouting department that should almost always get the green light on making picks… they’re that good.

As such, I’d rather we make our picks, no matter where they are in the draft, than trade them. Sure, try to trade up, but make the picks…

The two trades kind of speak to one of the flaws with the Team of Rivals approach to the front office. I imagine Walt Perrin’s team would have loved to take someone at 19 that year. They may have gotten the player wrong, since Perrin didn’t have a perfect track record in Utah, but the percentage chance of that working was much higher than the other things we did. So that’s one faction. Then you’ve got the Leon/Wes group whose primary goal is to trade for a star, and who decided — incorrectly, it seems — that a heavily-protected pick would have more utility in a future deal than whatever prospect we drafted at that spot. And then you have, I’m guessing, some combo of Wes and Scott Perry who love guys with pedigrees, even if they have never lived up to said pedigree. And they believed that they and their great coaching staff could unlock whatever the Duke and Atlanta coaches had failed to bring out of Cam Reddish. The protected pick was less valuable than the 19th pick, but it still had some value, which we could have either used in a different trade or to eventually draft someone whenever it conveyed. Cam is just Mario Hezonja 2.0, but if we had to throw away a real asset to get him rather than signing him as a low-cost free agent flyer.

Trading the new pick for Cam was actually an incineration.

Yes, but only in insight. And hindsight from the last 10 days. Many of us were intrigued with walking boot Grimes making way for Cam to start and show what a healthy off-season would do.

Yes while a lot of respected posters argued when the draft swap was made that was an incineration, others argued it was just a (needless) devaluation. When it was traded for Cam there were varying and valid viewpoints as to what the previous swap meant value wise. But I think most of us thought Cam could be at least an end of rotation player if Thibs would not be Thibs.

It’s been a long offseason

Cam has always stunk. He had like that one playoff game where he made a bunch of threes, but he stunk at Duke and then stunk with the Hawks. It wasn’t a surprise that he came here and sucked. The surprise would have been if he had played well. This is not a 20/20 hindsight situation here. I’ve still yet to hear somebody adequately explain to me why Cam is supposed to be a good prospect other than “athleticism.”

He was a big HS recruit and a name prospect at one time, but so were a lot of guys.

While discussing Cam on his postgame livestream, Macri recalled all the other guys with million dollar athleticism and 10-cent heads like Mudiay, DSJ, etc., and then concluded, “I don’t know what it says that all these players ended up on the Knicks.”

Res ipsa loquitur: the thing speaks for itself. I’m not saying that reclamation projects are impossible, but we have consistently tried it with guys who can’t be reclaimed.

Perhaps there are some cases where high profile draft busts like this flamed out, ended up on the trash heap, and then rebuilt their careers, but I’m having a hard time thinking of any off the top of my head. Giving up a 1RP for one is complete lunacy. Just draft another high-risk, high-ceiling prospect at that slot if that’s what you’re shooting for.

I could live with having traded a 2nd for Cam. It still would have been a bad deal, but I could live with it. A 1st was awful.

Can we please cease and desist with all the Eason and Mathurin adulation until, you know, they’ve actually played one minute of regular season NBA basketball?

I honestly don’t give much of a crap about preseason performances, coaches rest their starters and a lot of scrubs (not saying those 2 are scrubs btw) look like all stars.

It’s been a long offseason

that’s a good thing though, right?

Yeah, the Cam trade reeks of Perry/WWW. That and the Kemba signing suggests that their voice is louder than Thibs’, since he didn’t like or want to play either guy. But signing Rose and Taj suggests otherwise. It’s really weird. My hope is that Leon is keeping score and being more prudent about who to listen to (i.e Aller/Perrin over WWW/Perry/Thibs)

Yet at the end of the day, I like that we potentially have a fun team to root for, especially if Julius keeps playing like he has in preseason. Let’s not forget that pretty much everyone but E was hign on Julius at this time last year. So how far we go is still mostly about whether he and RJ will step up and whether Rose stays healthy for more than 60 games. If all of those things don’t happen, we’re still pretty much a Vegas odds kind of team, even with some development from Obi, IQ, and Grimes. I think Hart is a wash with healthy Noel and Fournier is who he is.

“Mario Hezonja”

I had successfully forgotten this one. Trigger warning, please.

I had successfully forgotten this one. Trigger warning, please.

Jimmer Fredette.
Derrick Williams.
Brandon Jennings.
Michael Beasley.

Doesn’t matter the administration. We’ve had a thing for picking up former lottery picks for a long time.

Doesn’t matter the administration. We’ve had a thing for picking up former lottery picks for a long time.

Noah Vonleh?

Washed up/declining stars and busted former lottery picks are a Knicks’ staple…

For a guy with plus athleticism Cam sure falls down a lot.

I work in Hollywood. There’s a strong “agent” culture out here, a strong sense of “what have you done” rather than “how good are you.” If you can reel off a list of impressive credits it doesn’t matter much how good you are at what you do. Other people think you’re good, therefore you must be good.

Kind of a similar scenario with the former lottery busts. A guy like Hartenstein, for example, had no draft pedigree and was off the blue chip prospect radar, came up unconventionally. If he had been a touted prospect and had a big season at like Kansas or something, he’d have gotten more minutes, a bigger contract, and a way longer leash.

The smarter GMs in the league seem to be good at looking past stuff like this and just finding guys who can play, regardless of pedigree. Those 90’s Knicks teams had two key scrap heap guys in Starks and Mason who were never taken seriously as prospects, but since Pat Riley knew what he was doing, he was able to unearth them, and also believe in them.

It’s actually kind of encouraging that this FO took the flyer on Hartenstein, who is not quite a Starks/Mason type of undiscovered gem, but who is a better prospect than his pedigree would suggest.

Jonathan Bender anyone?

And of course the biggest draft bust reclamation project ever, he whose name will not be mentioned but who might aptly be dubbed at The GIF That Keeps On Giving…

It’s easy to see Reddish’s talent. I was under the basket for the Pistons game and there were 8, 10, 12 shot sequences in warmups where the guy looked like Steph Curry. Effortless from very deep, one swish after the other, even did some dribble moves before rising. And then the very first 3 in the game was very smooth and effortless and swish.

He has good length and wingspan for a wing and looks like an NBA wing, even a star wing.

Howevvvvvverrrrrr ….

As I sort of noted before, in game situations he plays very slowly, almost as if he has no quick twitch muscles at all. He looks very smooth, actually, in situations where he runs at full speed or close to it — but that’s a very small part of NBA basketball. When he tries any kind of off the dribble or stepback jumper, he moves too slowly, isn’t crafty at all, and isn’t athletically balanced when he gathers for his shot. He’s very poor at this, at NBA speed — and that’s ultimately where he fails. He simply can’t move very quickly or athletically in any circumstance where he has to cut or start and stop or change direction or stepback and gather. Which makes the clear athleticism he possesses fools gold in association context.

The guy needs to spend hours and hours in the gym doing his Steph-esque warmup routine and the component parts *at NBA speed.* He almost needs like residual U-12 orange cone training in cutting and changing direction at speed because right now he makes Slow-Mo Anderson look like Usain Bolt. There aren’t many guys like this, but there are some players that, if they really wanted to be players rather than immediate cash-ins, would be better off staying in college for 3 or even 4 years.

Cam Reddish is one of those guys. He came out too early.

I have a headache after reading this thread.

Just watched the ending of She-Hulk, pleasantly surprised that it tried to be different. It was still bad.

Darko Milicic anyone? 😀

Meanwhile in Barcelona, our draft & stashed Rokas is still a backup, because the blaugranas signed Tomas Satoransky to take Calathes’ spot.

This is bad, they still don’t trust him. And if he can’t be a starter in europe, probably it’d be hard for him to stick on an NBA roster. The chances he joins the Knicks in 2023 have definitely come down by a lot.

Oh, we already talked about the incinerated pick and OAKAAK Vildoza… there’s only another vampire topic* left – FRANK !!!
* – a vampire topic is a topic that even when his time has come it refuses to die.

Duarte seems like a solid role player, I don’t know that he’s any better than Grimes. He probably doesn’t count as a “young” core piece. He’s 25 AKA older than every rostered Knick except Randle, Rose, & Fournier.

And Brunson too, he’s 26.

Counting Mitch and Hart as u-25 doesn’t seem right to me

But they’re 24, why shouldn’t they be counted as U25? Obi is 24 too, by the way.

Let’s be real though. We should be picking between #8 and #15 in next year’s draft no matter what. Hopefully we will play well enough that we can trade some of our vets and make room for the next crop of young guys (I’d still like a top-10 pick though.)

This is a transition year. Next year should be all about Brunson and the young players.

Perhaps there are some cases where high profile draft busts like this flamed out, ended up on the trash heap, and then rebuilt their careers, but I’m having a hard time thinking of any off the top of my head

The fairly obvious best case Cam comp is Andrew Wiggins, who just provided high leverage championship equity to his franchise. But you have to squint because as bad as Wiggins was he was better than Cam has been and it still took Wiggins 8 years to become a half decent player.

Speaking of future picks, the Ringer article put the Bucks last (30th) in their young core status. The 2025 top four protected pick seems to have a lot of potential.

Seamlessly working high leverage championship equity in there like a true pro. The man doesn’t just make pizza.

I looked up a list of NBA late bloomers and the guy that stuck out was Billups, who was a relatively high pick and who provided some championship equity. Other major takeaway was that a lot of late bloomers are point guards. Other guys in that category: Cassell, Lowry, Nash, and Stockton. Whiteside and Ben Wallace were two bigs on the list.

Was Nash a late bloomer? I mean he was pretty good in Dallas. I think he might have even been an all star. It’s just that Dantoni unleashed his true point god potential with the suns. But it’s not like Nash bounced around the league before getting good like Billups did. He just went from pretty good to MVP level player.

Man I loved watching Nash on the suns. When that team first hit the scene they were truly electric.

Nash was in Phoenix for two years, then played starter minutes his third year which was his first in Dallas. He wasn’t good though. He really broke out his fifth season, his third in Dallas. This after four years at Santa Clara.

So he fits the description pretty well even without the 7SOL explosion.

Cam just seems too physically weak to be able to make it in the NBA. He has zero strength to his game. He needs to do like a football training camp strength-agility type of conditioning.

This is a very active preseason daily post thread for a 35-win team

I’m kinda perplexed

None of those guys, even Wiggins, were truly scrap heap guys. Wiggins got that huge contract when he still stunk. I’m talking more about the Mudiay/Hezonja/Vonleh types that fully washed out. Reddish seems more in that category.

“I’m kinda perplexed”

What else is new?

“I’m talking more about the Mudiay/Hezonja/Vonleh types that fully washed out. Reddish seems more in that category.”

Nonsense. Reddish is a future star. If you don’t believe me, just ask him.

I just watched a 18 minute YouTube video about the suns because of this post LOL.

Nash played well with the suns his first two years but they still had Jason Kidd (and also still had Kevin Johnson even). So they traded him. Ironically the pick they got out of that trade to Dallas allowed them to pick Marion, who was so key to the 7 seconds or less Suns. But Phoenix apparently always liked Nash and had desires to get him back even right after they traded him. Then marbury clashed with Dantoni and LOL Knicks obliged Phoenix by trading for marbury and his huge contract, which opened up cap space for them to sign Nash. But he was a multiple all star in Dallas. But yeah he was 30. Kind of crazy. I mean I think a lot of people on this board would be upset if we signed a 30 year old all star but not top five player on our team but signing Nash at that age allowed the suns to put together one of the best teams ever.

Wiggins and reddish aren’t comparable at all. Wiggins got a fat contract that was a huge overpay and wasn’t the most efficient player but he was an NBA starting caliber player. Similar to say, RJ. The question with RJ isn’t is he good enough to be a starter in the NBA. It’s is he good enough to be a star who deserves a big contract. That was the same deal with Wiggins.

With cam at this point it’s can he even crack a rotation? He’ll stick around for awhile bc of his physical profile and potential and occassional highlight play but he’s way more Anthony Randolph than andrew Wiggins.

Wiggins age 22 and 23 seasons he was a no defense playing chucker with a TS% of .505 and .493. He wasn’t a sure starter, he was one of the worst players in the NBA and the wolves gave him one of the stupidest contract extensions in NBA history.

What else is new?

I’m not fully perplexed, which is an improvement

I can see Reddish getting a lot of minutes if he was on a different team with different needs. If he was on the Lakers now, for example, I’m sure he’d play a lot. He’ll get minutes here too if there are injuries. So I don’t think the contrast with Wiggins is far fetched just because Wiggins got a lot more minutes in his first two years. I don’t think he’s as good as Wiggins either. I’m just saying he’s not necessarily doomed to be bad forever. Maybe he’s not intrinsically slow in his reactions, it’s just that he seems to need to figure things out and develop his instincts so that he doesn’t often need to take time to make a decision what to do.

The article today in the New York Times (behind a paywall) makes me hate Dolan even more, which I did not think was possible. What a f…in a..h.le

Speaking of future picks, the Ringer article put the Bucks last (30th) in their young core status. The 2025 top four protected pick seems to have a lot of potential.

What do you mean? They’ll have under contract Giannis, Jrue and Portis. I’m guessing they’ll re-sign Middleton between now and then.

I mean I think a lot of people on this board would be upset if we signed a 30 year old all star but not top five player on our team but signing Nash at that age allowed the suns to put together one of the best teams ever.

Some of us were advocating to sign 36yo CP3, and a lot of the others were only pointing out that 36yo would be a high risk. I’m pretty sure everybody would be happy if we signed an all-star PG at age 30. What we don’t like is players that are not that good, at that age because there’s no potential to improve, or players that have clear flaws (bad defense, injury prone, etc).

I’m not fully perplexed, which is an improvement

Baby steps 😉

Hey Bernie, is it this one?

A lawyer who has had Knicks season tickets since the 1970s represents clients who are suing Madison Square Garden. So it barred all 60 of his firm’s lawyers from every game, concert and other event at its venues.

Is this even legal in america? In Portugal you can’t discriminate people just because it’s a private company, you must have reasons for that, most likely listed in the terms of service if you don’t want problems with the law about your decision to ban someone. I’d bet there’s no “Every lawyer, and related professionals, that work on cases suing MSG is warranted a ban from all our venues” on MSG’s terms of service. And even if it were, here people would contest the term and they’d be ordered to remove it from the terms of service.

Private business can ban anyone and everyone for any reason they choose as long as its not racially based (and maybe a few other protected categories of people)

The land of the free, hey? Here owners are not as free as Dolan to do such a thing. Another example, my football club (soccer, in america) tried to ban one media outlet from our press conferences, they contested the decision and the club was ordered to allow them at the press conferences. It’s kind of defeating the purpose of freedom, if you’re free enough to hurt the freedom of the others.

Cybersoze, the 2025 draft is three full seasons away. The Bucks core will be old and per that article they have no young players in the pipeline to take their place. They could be very mediocre by then and their pick could be pretty good.

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