[theknickswall.com] — Tuesday, September 6, 2022 7:25:23 AM
Checking in on the EuroBasket Knicks The Knicks Wall
[theathletic.com] — Tuesday, September 6, 2022 6:41:55 AM
Walt “Clyde” Frazier’s passion for catchphrases, poignant language earn Knicks broadcaster prestigious honor The Athletic
[www.hoopsrumors.com] — Monday, September 5, 2022 11:55:00 PM
Eastern Notes: Antetokounmpo, Knicks, Mitchell, Bitadze, Korkmaz hoopsrumors.com
[nbaanalysis.net] — Monday, September 5, 2022 7:29:21 PM
NBA Rumors: This Hornets-Knicks Trade Involves Gordon Hayward NBA Analysis Network
[clutchpoints.com] — Monday, September 5, 2022 1:34:11 PM
2 way too early Knicks trades New York needs to pull off ClutchPoints
[theknickswall.com] — Monday, September 5, 2022 1:27:37 PM
First Annual Knicks No-Playoffs Draft The Knicks Wall
[www.yardbarker.com] — Monday, September 5, 2022 1:16:13 PM
Could The Knicks Be Targeting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Yardbarker
[hoopshype.com] — Monday, September 5, 2022 12:22:33 PM
Members of the Knicks felt they didn’t get a fair shake from the Jazz in their trade negotiations ? Hoops Hype
[www.si.com] — Monday, September 5, 2022 11:35:29 AM
Former Knick J.R. Smith Claims He’s Been ‘Blackballed’ by NBA Sports Illustrated
[www.si.com] — Monday, September 5, 2022 10:00:00 AM
Should Spurs Pursue Trade with Knicks for Cam Reddish? Sports Illustrated
115 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2022.09.06)”
To not be lost at the end of the last thread, i’ll repeat it here that RJ’s contract isn’t as bad as it was first announced. RJ has 3M in incentives each season, if he makes All NBA, All Star and All Defense (1M per). This takes down the guaranteed money to a more palatable 108M across 4 years. If we adjust the contracts of John Collins and Mikal Bridges to now (given the projected cap), RJ will make 2M more than Mikal and 3M less than Collins. Although i prefered less, i think it’s fair money. What we should be worried is if he’ll earn it. That’s the big question for the Knicks, we need RJ to make a leap to the player a top3 pick should be.
Fascinating/depressing Macri podcast today, where both he and Jeremy — who is even more of a Knicks FO apologist than Jon — sort through the aftermath of the non-trade and their increasing fear that the Rose administration is going in the wrong direction. (And also, both of them are now willing to attach one of the protected picks just to get rid of Randle.)
TNFH I responded to your post in the previous thread and will leave it there, which I think is a good practice when things get testy.
RJ’s extension is very similar to Randle’s contract, which is probably the single worst contract in the NBA.
How is it remotely controversial to say that if RJ, who was statistically fairly similar to Randle last year, doesn’t get much better, his contract will also be bad?
I don’t care to argue about the semantics of whether it’s “close to a max”–it’s an amount of money that is more than capable of seriously damaging a team’s finances and thus needs to be justified by good production.
It’s a little wild to me to see people who justified the Rose regime’s obviously suboptimal strategizing by saying we were well-positioned to trade for a star turn right around and justify our failure to trade for a star.
He failed the test he laid out for himself, and I’m not talking about the fact that he didn’t make the trade. I think there are very reasonable arguments on both sides of that one and it’s impossible to know exactly where I fall without knowing what the Knicks’ “Cavs +1” offer was.
I’m talking about the fact that Leon Rose, implicitly and to a large degree explicitly, made the argument that he didn’t have to rebuild the tried and true way because he could make us a contender by pulling off multiple star trades. Implicit in this argument, of course, was the idea that he could pull off these trades in a manner that wouldn’t leave us too barren, because we obviously wouldn’t become a contender if that happened.
Lo and behold, trading for a star, particularly a young one, is very expensive. If you forego the kinds of assets you get at the top of the draft (both in terms of forthcoming picks and already-picked players), it’s going to require a ton in terms of quantity. If your team isn’t particularly good when making this kind of trade, there’s a very good chance you won’t have enough left over to contend after the trade is made.
This was all covered years ago when it became clear that Leon Rose’s plan was to put all his eggs in the “trade for a star” basket.
Leon Rose either didn’t account for these obvious factors, or for some silly reason thought they wouldn’t apply to him.
For everyone saying another young star will inevitably become available (I’m a little more dubious on the frequency of this than others, but I digress), I ask again what will be different besides the fact that we’ll have lost time on rookie-scale deals and will be closer to the day our picks ripen?
People seem to think we’ll simply trade for a star that is both better for us than Donovan Mitchell AND less expensive than Donovan Mitchell. Why on Earth would that happen? The fact that the Cavs paid what they did proves that this was not a case of Danny Ainge holding out for an unrealistic price–he correctly read the market for a young star player.
Why will the next GM give us a discount? The Connections™?
September 6, 2022 at 08:30
Fascinating/depressing Macri podcast today, where both he and Jeremy — who is even more of a Knicks FO apologist than Jon — sort through the aftermath of the non-trade and their increasing fear that the Rose administration is going in the wrong direction. (And also, both of them are now willing to attach one of the protected picks just to get rid of Randle.)”
I mean, it was pretty much conceded that hiring Thibs quashed any chance of the “right” direction, or put more accurately, the surest path to the desired destination. But I don’t see how one’s opinion of the team’s direction could be dampened by the outcome of Mitchell situation. It seems pretty wishy-washy to me.
As Macri’s producer put it, the Rose administration is basically living up to the half-measures approach that Mike Ehrmantraut repudiated on Breaking Bad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BE4QcwX4dU
He has been trying to have it both ways: acquiring kids/picks but then not doing enough with them because he also hired Thibs and is trying to win as many games as possible every season. It is a better-executed version of the hybrid strategy deployed by most of this century’s Knicks front offices (even Donnie Walsh was doing that to a degree while stripping the roster down to the studs in the futile hope of signing LeBron), but it’s still a path that is far less likely to succeed than going all-in on either player development or really going for it with stars.
I did not want Donovan Mitchell, and certainly not at the price the Cavs paid. At the same time, if Leon had acquired him for a similar package, it would at least be a commitment to an approach, rather than us continuing to be stuck in limbo, and with as many as four guys (Randle, Fournier, Rose, and Reddish) whom the team would be better off without. (Fournier and maybe Reddish are the only ones I think there is any point to keeping.)
TNFH, again, your penchant for exaggeration is evident here. Where has it ever been reported that Leon Rose expected that trading for a star would be less expensive for him because of his connections? Let me clue you in. Nowhere.
What Leon DEFINITELY said is that if he creates the proper culture in NY, stars would WANT to come here and stay here.
That was proven in spades with Donovan Mitchell. He, the biggest star on the market, absolutely preferred to come here, and made it obvious to everyone. That Ainge didn’t cooperate is pretty predictable, and to suggest that Leon was expecting Ainge to give him some sort of discount is really petty and narrative-serving.
Kudos to Danny for getting what he wanted, and kudos to Leon for not caving, setting a deadline, and extending RJ against Danny’s wishes, essentially killing the deal. It was a win-win. Kudos to Leon for believing that what he offered was better than what Ainge got from CLE. It means that he was tired of Ainge’s games and drew a line in the sand. I don’t know how else you can interpret the deadline and then extending RJ.
Might Leon have learned some lessons about negotiating from this episode? Probably.
What do you guys think, we are done and this is the roster on day 1, or will we make a trade to better balance the roster?
I have said a million times that the worst thing for a rebuilding team was to hire a “name” coach, especially one like Thibs or D’Antoni. While they are both world-class coaches in a vacuum, they don’t fit a rebuilding situation. That WWW was openly criticizing Thibs last season suggests that there is dissent as to whether he’s the right guy for the job, so if Thibs continues to play “bad” Julius over Obi, or Fournier over Grimes and IQ, there’s going to be rumblings, especially if they start losing (and the schedule is not easy in November.)
But there is no doubt, as Hubert pointed out, that they are doing a much better job of developing the young players than under previous regimes, including the way that Thibs has worked with them separately.
In that sense, I don’t get how we should be concerned that we are squandering player value by delaying trading for a star. How is a player like Obi or IQ or Grimes worth more when they are largely unproven than they would be upon being proven commodities but with less time on their rookie deals? Ainge just took on Markkanen (locked up on second deal) and Sexton (in a sign-and-trade with a significant contract extension) as part of the trade. If Obi, IQ and Grimes were a year further along, it sounds like their trade value might actually be enhanced, not diminished.
September 6, 2022 at 09:37
What do you guys think, we are done and this is the roster on day 1, or will we make a trade to better balance the roster?”
I think there will be some sort of roster consolidation, but quite possibly not until after training camp. At that point, teams will see what they have and decide what they need. Teams will get a first look at whether/how much their players (especially young players) developed over the offseason. The Knicks FO/coaching staff will get a look at where Julius is mentally and physically so they can better decide what to do with him.
Really, the only huge question mark for the Knicks is what to do with Randle. The most ideal outcomes would be for him to have a better attitude and approach and to accept a more complementary role, and then to see how it plays out in deciding whether to move him, either as a salary dump or to an interested party (and I still think that CHA can be a trade partner given the Bridges fiasco and MJ’s impulsiveness/arrogance. He might be a great match with LaMelo.)
Beyond that, I could see a 3-way Cam to Lakers trade….I don’t think Cam by himself would be worth anything close to the Lakers 2027 pick unless it is lottery protected, and if they sacrifice the rights to that pick or even worst the 2029 pick I think they need a much better return, i.e. beyond what we can offer. But even there, I’d like for the team to wait until pre-season to see whether Cam added anything to his game and improved his body.
Donovan Mitchell is not a good fit for this team so we should all be thankful the trade didn’t happen.
This idea that you can only build a team by breaking it all down and tanking for years is nonsense. Especially with the lottery odds being flattened. Philadelphia tanked for half a decade and they aren’t going to win a championship unless a lot breaks their way. LA and Miami are always capped out with minimal draft assets but field competitive teams. A talented front office is much more important for being a wanted destination for players.
Yes, you need to have some draft luck, but you also need to make yourself a destination by looking competent to players. Focus on getting a good 2 way PG and wings. Fill in the gaps. It’s not rocket science but it is at the same time.
Should we have facilitated some deals the past few off seasons to gain more draft capital? Sure, that’s a reasonable argument/criticism. But if you were against doing the Mitchell deal but now turn around and say they’re in the wrong for not doing the Mitchell deal you’re making yourself look hypocritical.
I maintain that Julius Randle is good every alternating season. This is the year that he will be good, so we should let him be good and then look to offload him next off-season.
Half kidding, but half not.
Congratulations to Leon Rose for getting Cleveland Cavalier Donovan Mitchell to want to play for the Knicks!
In all seriousness, I said explicitly that Rose either thought he’d get a discount OR just didn’t sufficiently account for the fact that young stars are expensive.
I thought it was pretty clear that I personally think the latter is more likely, but in case it wasn’t, I personally think Rose just didn’t sufficiently think through this part of the plan.
If he was really caught off guard by how much it cost to trade for Mitchell, I think that’s a prima facie case that I’m correct because the price was entirely unsurprising.
I have news for Leon Rose on the off chance he’s reading this: if another young star becomes available before you’re fired, that guy is also going to cost a ton. If he costs less than Mitchell, it’ll be because he’s worse than Mitchell in some way (production, age, etc.).
The point is the Knicks failing to trade for Donovan Mitchell because a Donovan Mitchell trade would be bad doesn’t reveal anything in particular about the circumstances surrounding the Donovan Mitchell trade.
It reveals that “be a mediocre team and accumulate surplus mediocre assets and hope to trade them for a star” is a bad plan.
Fewer buyers in the market. Cleveland is now one less team we have to compete with for the next available player. And given how the NBA works these days, it seems to happen more often than previous. In the last year, how many good players changed teams? Off the top of my head, Gobert and Mitchell. But also Durant was almost sent packing, Harden was traded mid-season, etc. Players seem able to/and act upon forcing trades more often than let’s say 10-20 years ago.
But I’ll say this – the proof is in the pudding. The Knicks have acquired a bunch of assets, but eventually they need to cash in and turn that into wins. Getting and giving lots of minutes to Fournier, Burks, Rose, Randle too, that is contradictory to what they’re trying to achieve. You acquire those guys to give the young guys mentoring/tips and then you get them out of the way so you can see what the kids can do. Wins/losses shouldn’t be important, but their on the court philosophy is the opposite.
The coach and the GM should be working hand-in-hand on the rebuild. But there clearly is no plan here. Or two conflicting plans. New York isn’t the cesspool it was in the 00’s. But when will they seriously compete? It doesn’t look like it’s happening in the near future.
Macri wanted to give RJ a 5 year/150 million extension so I’m not sure Rose is doing worse at the team building than he would.
Randle’s (and probably RJ’s) contracts are bad but they aren’t making enough money to be worst in the NBA. Bradley Beal is making 20 million more than Randle this year, is signed for longer, and has a no trade clause.
Might Leon have learned some lessons about negotiating from this episode? Probably.
Probably not, because according to Gary Washburn, Gersson Rosas did all the negotiating, weirdly enough.
If Randle has a good first half, trade him at the deadline!
Anyone check out the series Outer Range? I’m about halfway through, with mixed feelings. It’s sort of a modern cross between Twin Peaks (less the quirky FBI agent) and and old school John Wayne western.
I’d be good with that, too, depending on how the season is unfolding.
Mike, we’re in agreement that Rose’s plan would look much better if he didn’t care so much about racking up wins. Our assets would be better across the board. I don’t think the fact that he clearly does in fact care about wins can be separated from the plan itself.
As for there being one less competitor, I’m not really buying it. Competitors that didn’t previously exist can also appear. If Orlando gets off to a surprisingly decent start, maybe all of the sudden we’re competing with their treasure chest of assets. Eventually OKC is going to cash in. I could go on, but there are teams that could’ve outbid us for Mitchell that didn’t want Mitchell. They might want the next guy.
I also think someone like Mitchell being on the market was actually a *fairly* unique event, between his age, ability, and contract status. Durant, Harden, Gobert, and others who may have been available at some time like Dame have tended to not have Mitchell’s combination of age, production, and team control.
“In all seriousness, I said explicitly that Rose either thought he’d get a discount OR just didn’t sufficiently account for the fact that young stars are expensive.”
So long as you admit that this is pure speculation, sure, feel free to think that either of these thoughts are true.
“I personally think Rose just didn’t sufficiently think through this part of the plan.”
Leon Rose is not working in a vacuum. He is surrounded by seasoned executives (Perry, Aller, Rosas, Perrin to name a few) that absolutely know the cost of doing business. In fact, he apparently never spoke directly with the Jazz, it was Rosas who did the negotiating. So you are essentially saying that all five of these folks didn’t sufficiently think through the plan. Which is far more convenient than saying that they were simply outbid (in Ainge’s eyes) and drew the line in the sand in the correct place (and very similar to a line that you yourself drew.)
“I have news for Leon Rose on the off chance he’s reading this: if another young star becomes available before you’re fired, that guy is also going to cost a ton. If he costs less than Mitchell, it’ll be because he’s worse than Mitchell in some way (production, age, etc.).”
But costing a ton is not an issue when you have a ton to spend and still have assets left over after you spend it. You seem to think that their current trove of assets is depreciating by the day. Again, that’s pure speculation and it’s quite possible that they will actually gain value. Take your beloved Mitch. If he outplays his contract, he becomes a better trade asset than he was prior to his extension. Same with RJ. Same with Hartenstein.
None of the NYK draft picks we didn’t squander are going to depreciate. The negotiations confirmed that so long as we have those picks, we can compete with any team in a trade for a star. Of course the price will be high. The question is, can you meet the price if you want to? The answer is clearly yes. That’s not the case for a whole bunch of teams.
You also seem to discount the notion that the team can make incremental improvements through consolidation trades for mid-level types that will inevitably become available as the season progresses. Building a core of solid players 11-12 deep will make it more likely that a star can be acquired without putting a hard ceiling on further development. There re a bunch of teams that will have decisions to make on specific non-stars, and being in a position to win trades with those teams is a positive.
We are less than 3 years into the rebuilding process. It’s not a long time and we have lots of young assets either locked up on market-value deals or still on rookie contracts. We have two contracts that might need to be moved, one under $30M AAV and one under $20M AAV. The nightmare scenario you and others are painting simply isn’t grounded in reality.
I want Westbrook and an unprotected pick … I’d tell him never to shoot unless dunk or layup or anything inside 10ft…. Is there any value there? Can he comply. He’s still gotta be top 15 athlete…
That is all … go Knicks! Mitchell wasn’t worth it.
It would be quite Knicks-y for us to successfully turn ourselves into a destination where stars actually want to go right after the league transitions to an era where stars never hit free agency. Didn’t seem like Ainge cared in the least where Mitchell wanted to be, nor did it seem like the Nets gave any weight at all to Durant’s “preferred” teams during that saga.
In other circumstances, I might agree with you on Westbrook (I can’t believe I just typed that), but we certainly have enough assets and don’t need another unprotected pick badly enough to take him off of the Lakers’ hands at that price. In other words, one unprotected pick several years out is not worth $47 million when we already have plenty of them.
I sorta don’t buy that Leon’s “plan” is to blame per se… I think it’s actually more simple than that: the Knicks have just made bad moves.
Pre-Rose, the team really crippled itself by drafting Frank in 2017 and Knox in 2018 — two lottery picks that amounted to roughly zero wins combined across their Knick tenures. And these picks were made right before free agency essentially dried up, making them especially crucial in hindsight.
Then, Rose signed two aging players in Kemba and Fournier to multi-year contracts, each contributing close to nothing. They were so bad that Kemba had to be moved with draft capital as would Fournier if they choose to trade him. Major mistake. Not only were those guys washed up players, but they block minutes to our legit draft selections.
For Randle, I guess the jury is still a bit out on that extension because he could bounce back somewhat. But as a player, he will have to transform his game and be productive not as a point forward but as a rebounder/defender/shooter Marcus Morris-type. Either way, he’s blocking Obi’s progress, so hopefully he is dealt at a higher value.
The next failure could be punting on the 11th/13th pick, but we will have to wait and see. At least Brunson was a solid move, and the pick punt was kind of in service to that, but it was a less-than-ideal move.
I watched a couple of epsodes of Outer Range, Clash Fan, and was mostly bored with it. Part of a plague of modern streaming shows that clearly began life as a movie script that couldn’t be sold as a movie, and that then got elongated, because film writers don’t understand how TV works.
I have a lot of mixed thoughts on the Mitchell trade and the Knicks direction. After thinking about this and reading a lot of the comments (and articles), I do believe we are heading in a positive direction. I know the Knicks aren’t tanking for higher draft picks and they are aiming for the playoffs (most likely to be in the 8-10 range), but I feel we are setup for a better season and future.
I would imagine there will be some more moves in the future, and maybe even soon. Maybe JR, EF or DR get moved. But, I think we our solid group of young players and picks in the future we are setup to steadily improve. Maybe we make a trade or 2 before the season, or before the deadline or after the season, but I see us doing something.
Toure’ Murray retired. Remember when there was some ever-so-brief excitement over the possibility that he might be something?
If the FO can unload one or more of Randle, Reddish, Rose, or Fournier (probably in that order) before the season starts, and do it without bringing back someone whom our stupid coach will feel compelled to play over Obi, IQ, et al, then I’ll still have mixed feelings about Leon and company, but I’ll feel much better. This season needs to be all about the guys on the team who are 26 or younger. If we win with them, great. If we lose with them, high draft pick. Either outcome is fine.
While it’s not quite a guarantee, it is highly likely that Mitchell would not have cost us so much had it no been for the T-Wolves. Mitchell would have probably already been a Knick for a month now if his cost wasn’t inflated over what is typically a high cost for a player of Mitchell’s ilk. So I’m not sure Rose should be dinged as much for not landing the plane. He certainly had some missteps, though. Still- given Ainge’s asking price, this team is better off without Mitchell on the roster. Even if it is only a little.
However, Rose better hope that he can find a better deal somehow. If he does decide to chase SGA, OKC will definitely prefer Grimes over Quickley. But I don’t see them wanting Obi unless they think they can flip him or Holmgren can bulk up and play center. Randle might be the better investment because he can rebuild his value in peace being the #1 option there. Ok..that might be a little bit of a stretch..but still- Randle can be good on that roster. Better than he can on this roster because he will have to accept a different role to remain a Knick.
It’s really hard to forecast what Rose’s next play might be right now. All we can hope for is some sort of Randle trade so that RJ and Brunson can have the ball, and that Thibs makes the right decision regarding the perimeter rotation. Meaning starting Grimes over Fournier.
September 6, 2022 at 10:49
It would be quite Knicks-y for us to successfully turn ourselves into a destination where stars actually want to go right after the league transitions to an era where stars never hit free agency. Didn’t seem like Ainge cared in the least where Mitchell wanted to be, nor did it seem like the Nets gave any weight at all to Durant’s “preferred” teams during that saga.”
And that the one time we did tank all the way to the worst record was the year the lottery odds were flattened…and that we wound picking #3 in a 2-player draft. Seems like either way we can’t win!
OTOH, Harden bullied his way to preferred destinations, so it’s not entirely true. And as to Gobert and Mitchell, small-market teams have more reason to overpay.
While I agree that Mitchell’s age/contract/talent combo is a rare occurrence on the open market, a) it wasn’t a great fit for us after signing Brunson (who only wanted to come here and probably turned down more money to do so) and b) is not the only kind of star that can be a huge difference-maker. Let’s not forget that Mitchell has very grave flaws on defense, and is not without issues on offense.
What about older players? There is no question that overpaying for Durant would have a far greater positive impact in the next 3-4 years than overpaying for Mitchell, unless he demanded a trade. CP3 made a massive impact in PHX. Jrue Holiday won a title for MIL. Superstars in their late primes can and will become available when teams start blowing things up after playoff failure. Not every opposing GM is Danny Ainge. What if LAC hit a wall? Kawhi and PG13 can opt out in 2 years. Denver has $62M AAV tied up in Jokic, what happens if they top out? Do they start looking to move MPJ? What’s going on with Jaylen Brown in BOS? He’s a UFA in 2024 and is probably not happy with how he was dangled for Durant. Maybe AD wants out of LA in 2024 after he gets sick of LeBron.
Or maybe the Knicks hit a home run in the 2023 draft, which is said to be deep. Maybe they use a couple of unprotected picks to move up.
None of these things are “likely” in a vacuum but there is enough “unlikely but possible” scenarios to feel fairly good about positive developments.
“OKC will definitely prefer Grimes over Quickley”
Shai is a wing-sized combo guard, so giving up either guy for him is fine, i.e. a lot different than giving up Grimes for Mitchell where you lock into a pare of six foot nothing no-D combo guards for years.
If we fire these guys, i think Scott and Walt should start a show/podcast together. Wouldn’t The Perry & Perrin Show be a great name? 😀
Yeah, i remember those days. But recently he came to Portugal and played for the archrivals of my beloved FCPorto, so i don’t like him anymore. 😀
“Then, Rose signed two aging players in Kemba and Fournier to multi-year contracts, each contributing close to nothing. They were so bad that Kemba had to be moved with draft capital as would Fournier if they choose to trade him. Major mistake. Not only were those guys washed up players, but they block minutes to our legit draft selections.”
I don’t think you could find one poster on this board that thought the Kemba signing was a mistake. We were actually all celebrating it at the time as a shrewd move by management.
Sometimes deals don’t work out, but in this case it’s not fair to criticize Rose for the Kemba signing, that’s pure hindsight.
Randle, Grimes and picks for Shai works in the trade machine. I think the question is – why would OKC want even more picks? They traded several picks for our pick #11 this draft, which probably means that they’re not valuing the picks a lot, unless they’re unprotected picks.
This is where i’m at too. I think the player we really need to move is Randle, because even if he has a bounce back season, his style of play is totally counterproductive to the way the team plays when he’s not on the court. But yeah, if we can trade DRose and Fournier for younger (and better?) players, that’d be great. I’m still thinking about OG being unhappy in Toronto, i think we should make a move to get him.
Fournier still has some value to the team, simply for spacing reasons. I’d rather move him because it will give Quickley more minutes, but without him, the only completely trustworthy three point shooter on the roster is Grimes.
Rose is pointless, Randle is actively hurting the team, and Reddish should only be here if he is going to play enough to figure out if he can actually, you know, play.
I’d like to point out that our offer was beaten by a 2018 draft pick. Collin Sexton was drafted 8th overall, 1 pick ahead of Knox.
If the Knicks held an additional promising young player from 2018, the Don situation might end differently (Don of the Dead would make a great Post headline after the Knicks got eliminated during the play-in).
The 2018 draft was prior to Rose coming in as GM.
We can ketch about Rose all we want, he’s still hamstrung by the decisions of previous front offices.
I’m interested in knowing if Ainge actually thinks Sexton is good or if he thinks he’s going to score heaps of pointz and then he can trade him.
It was a bad bluff that got called by a much better card player.
That’s not at all what I said.
I said there’s a silver lining to some of our awful mistakes. One of them is that having veterans to displace could be highly motivating to IQ, Grimes, and Toppin.
It’s an optimistic take, and I’m willing to stand by it. But it’s just as easy that all three of them get sick of riding the bench in favor of veterans who they consistently outperform and ask to be traded.
“I mean, it was pretty much conceded that hiring Thibs quashed any chance of the “right” direction,”
His first decision was really bad and it’s begat a bunch of bad decisions since then. I think, explicitly or implicitly, you and some others are giving Leon credit for his decisions and philosophy holding together organically given the hiring of Thibs and it’s true — it does hold together. But that’s not really worth much given how bad the initial decision was. You don’t get bonus points for a “consistent philosophy” if the philosophy sucks.
“Might Leon have learned some lessons about negotiating from this episode?”
The second year was surely questioned. Lo and behold, that’s precisely what cost us a lottery pick.
Rose inherited good players on team-friendly contracts, three surplus first round picks, two surplus 2nd round picks that came in at 32 and 33, a pristine cap situation, and a prime lottery pick in his first draft.
He is the least hamstrung executive the Knicks have ever hired.
There were those of us who did not favor the Kemba contract and said so. (Probably not too aggressively, because Everyone Loves Kemba).
Writ larger, a bunch of us thought wasting all their cap room on [insert list of a bunch of guys mostly already gone that everyone knows by now] was really stupid. Which it was.
“two surplus 2nd round picks that came in at 32 and 33,”
Others were quicker to see it than I, but flat-out punting on 32 (*) was the proverbial canary in the coal mine.
(*) Or 33, whatever.
| He is the least hamstrung executive the Knicks have ever hired.
If this isn’t damning with the faintest praise. How far back would we have to go? When were the Knicks not loaded with GM land mines waiting to go off? Maybe when we had both Jackson & Strickland?
The only the only thing this site could still use is some daily original content. Anybody know somebody with a lot to say about the knicks? Somebody with an ability to form grammatical and well structured sentences? Somebody opinionated and controversial, but willing to back up their statements with historical precedent and stats? Somebody with experience in a comparable industry, like education, administration, and/or collegiate volleyball? But, most importantly, somebody with a lot of free-time suddenly on their hands to dedicate solely to writing about the New York Knicks? Cause if a unicorn like that existed, we could put that pesky Morning News Bot out of work, and return KB to the human content days of Cavan, Silverman, and Farfa. Anyone have any ideas? Any at all? Does ANYBODY come to mind?
I will rephrase: he inherited near perfect conditions.
He had surplus picks, no bad contracts, multiple good players on team-friendly contracts who could have been sold off for pieces that suited a long term timeline, and no external pressure to compete.
Hell, he was even gifted with a 62 game season played in empty gyms so he didn’t even have the pressure to sell tickets.
We can’t seriously sit here and give him a pass because he didn’t have SGA, too.
<blockquote So long as you admit that this is pure speculation, sure, feel free to think that either of these thoughts are true.
If you think I’m speculating even one iota, you’re simply not understanding what I’m saying.
Again, Leon Rose told the world he could forego the easiest, surest path to the kind of elite talent we all agree every team needs: the draft. When he decided we would operate over the cap, he impliedly said he could do so by trading for a star because that took us out of the high-echelon free agency running too (Rose also took over at a time it was obvious high-echelon free agency was at least temporarily extinct).
A young, undoubtedly star-level player who wanted to play for the Knicks hit the market. If there was ever a time to validate this approach, it was now. Leon Rose made no secret of the fact that he desperately wanted the player in question–in some package or another, he basically offered every single asset available to him. It was literally the culmination, at least the first part of it, of his entire “plan.”
Leon Rose, likely correctly, found the predictable, market-rate price for the player to be cripplingly high for the Knicks. This *necessarily* means he either thought the cost for this kind of transaction would be lower, or he just wasn’t thinking about the cost at all.
I could maybe defend him on this. I think the market moved a little bit. This whole thing with teams foregoing near-term picks in favor of distant picks kinda just started.
If we were still in the days where 3 unprotected firsts meant 2023, 2025, and 2027, this trade might have gotten done.
Scott Layden was the least hamstrung POBO the Knicks have hired. Not only did he have all of his picks in his pocket when he was hired, but his predecessor had already done the dirty work of trading popular vets (Starks and Oakley) for younger and better players (Sprewell and Camby). Plus he had a huge expiring contract to work. Oh yeah, and the team was also coming off a finals appearance. (The sky was the limit!)
“Leon Rose is not working in a vacuum. He is surrounded by seasoned executives (Perry, Aller, Rosas, Perrin to name a few) that absolutely know the cost of doing business. In fact, he apparently never spoke directly with the Jazz, it was Rosas who did the negotiating. So you are essentially saying that all five of these folks didn’t sufficiently think through the plan.”
No, I am simply attributing the “plan” to the person officially in charge of running the damn team. Like everyone else with the same title, he obviously has help in doing so.
We know for an absolute fact that there is dissent within his own front office about a lot of his choices, or at least the choices he’s responsible for since, again, the buck stops with him, but if it helps you understand what I’m saying feel free to substitute “the Knicks front office” for “Leon Rose” whenever you read something I say.
“But costing a ton is not an issue when you have a ton to spend and still have assets left over after you spend it.”
It was Leon Rose, not me, who decided that this wouldn’t apply to us if we paid the incredibly predictable price for a star player. So *by his own admission* he hasn’t put us in this position.
“You seem to think that their current trove of assets is depreciating by the day. Again, that’s pure speculation and it’s quite possible that they will actually gain value.”
There is not a team in professional sports that can’t claim “if a number of unknowns swing in our direction, our trajectory will be better.” The best front offices minimize those unknowns.
Right now, the trajectory of the Knicks depends on so many unknowns it’s legitimately difficult to keep track of them all: Randle not being horrible, RJ making a major leap, every young player on the roster improving to at least some degree, absolutely nailing draft picks in the years to come, etc.
Good front offices don’t let this happen.
“You also seem to discount the notion that the team can make incremental improvements through consolidation trades for mid-level types that will inevitably become available as the season progresses.”
Again, if a bunch of unknowns swing our way, I will adjust my opinion accordingly.
“We have two contracts that might need to be moved, one under $30M AAV and one under $20M AAV. The nightmare scenario you and others are painting simply isn’t grounded in reality.”
The most plugged in Knicks reporters are basically unanimous in saying one of these would take a *first-round pick* to trade. The first year of four on that one begins next season.
Denying that this is a bad state of affairs is what isn’t grounded in reality.
I maintain that Phil Jackson inherited a great situation. I believe there was one future 1RP that was owed but he inherited a team with two great trade assets: Melo and Tyson. A good GM could have blown that team up over the next two years and been setup perfectly for the future.
Phil Jackson could’ve gotten a nice haul for Melo in a sign-and-trade, and could’ve gotten future assets instead of Calderon-types for Tyson. Instead he tried to show the world the Triangle is alive and well to predictable results. Just a total dunce.
Rose didn’t inherit much in the way of present talent, but since we weren’t draft encumbered at all when he took over it would’ve been incredibly easy to decide right then and there that we were going into asset accumulation mode.
Other teams that are doing donuts in the parking lot on us in terms of asset accumulation, like Orlando and OKC, hadn’t started that yet when he took over, so he almost definitely would’ve gotten off to a great start.
In fact, because it would’ve been so easy to do this before he signed Randle et al., I think it’s safe to say we were closer to getting elite talent the day he took over than we are now. We would’ve had to make some minor easy moves and make reasonable draft picks at the top of the lottery. That’s a very clear path compared to whatever the hell has to happen now.
Maybe not a total dunce, but is definitely wearing the cap right about now.
I don’t think our trajectory depends on many unknowns, i think we are dependent on RJ making a major leap into a star. We have Brunson, he’s probably a known quantity and he’s a #3 on a good team if he keeps playing at the same level. And then we have Mitch that is a good rotation player on a good team. If RJ becomes a star, we’ll have a team like the Jazz and Blazers had the previous seasons, but with young players that might develop into good rotation players and a lot of picks. I just don’t know if RJ can do it, but he’s clearly our best (and only?) chance to get to a new level.
Pro Tankers – 76er’s are geniuses for taking 5 years to process and tank in order to build a perrenial 2nd round playoff team.
Same people – KNICKS ARE DOOMED 3 YEARS INTO LEON’S TENURE!
Other teams that are doing donuts in the parking lot on us in terms of asset accumulation.
Don’t these assets have to start, I don’t know, producing wins before we declare them doing better than us?
We’re going into next season with only 3 players over the age of 26 and people are acting like we’re still a team of vet mercenaries.
“Pro Tankers – 76er’s are geniuses for taking 5 years to process and tank in order to build a perrenial 2nd round playoff team.
Same people – KNICKS ARE DOOMED 3 YEARS INTO LEON’S TENURE!”
Putting aside any qualms with the characterization (the Sixers have the 7th best championship odds as of now), can I get an estimate on when Leon Rose will put together a “perennial 2nd round playoff team?” We can make it very easy on Leon and define that as making it two the second round two seasons in a row.
Clearly it’s going to take under five years, right?
Denying that this is a bad state of affairs is what isn’t grounded in reality.
LOL. We have a team full of young players. Only 3 players are over the age of 26. The guy we’re all most worried about this time last year was coming off a 2nd team all NBA season. And he’s the guy we’re the most worried about. D Rose comes off the books this year. Fournier next year.
We still have a boatload of picks in the next few drafts.
Who cares if Leon lost out on Mitchell? Most of us didn’t want him anyways. Do you think even great GM’s win every single transaction, trade and draft pick?
Leon is doing fine. All this hand wringing for nothing.
Knicks are gonna be good this season.
“Again, Leon Rose told the world he could forego the easiest, surest path to the kind of elite talent we all agree every team needs: the draft.”
Actuaally, the top of the draft.
“When he decided we would operate over the cap, he impliedly said he could do so by trading for a star because that took us out of the high-echelon free agency running too (Rose also took over at a time it was obvious high-echelon free agency was at least temporarily extinct).”
This is wrong because he just demonstrated how easy it was to clear enough cap space to sign the best FA on the market, and didn’t even need to do a sign-and-trade which is always an option if you are willing to compensate teams for playing ball. See: Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, etc.
“Leon Rose made no secret of the fact that he desperately wanted the player in question”
So desperate that he didn’t even directly engage in the negotiations!
“in some package or another, he basically offered every single asset available to him.”
The “in some package or another” part is operative here. He clearly had the assets to get the job done. Ainge wouldn’t budge, so rather than up the ante, he set a deadline and walked. Lots of good GMs do that, INCLUDING AINGE!!
“This *necessarily* means he either thought the cost for this kind of transaction would be lower, or he just wasn’t thinking about the cost at all.”
You are making this into a “putting all of your eggs in one basket” thing. Leon clearly did not think that way. If he did, he wouldn’t have let Mitchell get away. He will patiently wait for the next opportunity, which will surely arise, and probably a) be better than this one and b) happen sooner than you think.
“Right now, the trajectory of the Knicks depends on so many unknowns it’s legitimately difficult to keep track of them all: Randle not being horrible, RJ making a major leap, every young player on the roster improving to at least some degree, absolutely nailing draft picks in the years to come, etc.”
But these are in fact unknowns. You are treating them as knowns and forming an opinion accordingly. You admit as much by saying that you will adjust your opinion when the unknowns become knowns.
From the very start, Leon preached patience, and made “culture-building” his top priority. He took over the biggest laughingstock clown show in the NBA (thanks Phil and Steve!). Hate on Randle all you want, but he wanted to stay here and signed what many here thought was a bargain contract to ensure that he would. Mitch stayed. Brunson came. Mitchell wanted to come. The fans love the team except for Randle, and that may be salvageable, expecially with a real PG on board.
When are those two consecutive first-round series victories coming, swift?
You’ve made it clear you think 5 years is too long to reach that level. The gawd Leon will clearly beat that timetable, right? Even though this would require winning a playoff series *this season* and next, you’re telling me Leon’s got this, no?
The Knicks’ big weakness is offensive eFG%. They got an absolute ton of low-efficiency FG attempts last year from Randle and Barrett. Those guys had a .459 and .466 eFG% respectively, and combined they took 35% of the team’s field goal attempts. For reference, league average eFG% was .532 last year.
If those numbers look anything like that again, the team is going to be bad again. Those two dudes absolutely killed us last year. Let’s hope the addition of Brunson results in fewer godawful shot attempts from the guys who take most of the shots.
One of the reasons I’m bullish on next season’s win total is that those two guys JK47 mentioned don’t necessarily have to get better. We can improve just if we stop letting take so many god damn shots.
“So desperate that he didn’t even directly engage in the negotiations!”
“The “in some package or another” part is operative here. He clearly had the assets to get the job done.”
“You are making this into a “putting all of your eggs in one basket” thing. Leon clearly did not think that way. If he did, he wouldn’t have let Mitchell get away. He will patiently wait for the next opportunity, which will surely arise, and probably a) be better than this one and b) happen sooner than you think.”
Oh please. When I said what I said I didn’t know you were going to choose to ignore widely reported information we’ve already discussed here, so I’ll put a finer point on it: the most reputable NBA reporter on planet Earth says we offered RJ, Obi ,Mitch, and three unprotected firsts *in one package* for Mitchell.
Now that’s the kind of offer a steely-eyed man ready to walk away at any time makes, baby!
The Knicks have proceeded to spend the entirety of the post-trade period leaking that they were “shocked and disappointed” about the trade about the trade and whining about not getting the chance to beat the Cavs’ offer.
I’m happy to link to all of this if need be, I just thought it wasn’t necessary because, again, it’s been widely reported and we’ve already discussed all of it here.
If you think that offer, and the subsequent pouty media leaking, screams anything other than “desperate to make a trade” all I can say is we probably won’t agree on much else.
“But these are in fact unknowns. You are treating them as knowns and forming an opinion accordingly. You admit as much by saying that you will adjust your opinion when the unknowns become knowns.”
Again: there’s not a professional sports team that can’t claim that the future is bright if a bunch of things swing their way.
I simply refuse to evaluate the Leon Rose tenure under the assumption that a number of future events he’s largely removed from his control are going to go his way. I don’t know why anyone would do that. It doesn’t make any sense.
Good front offices reduce these unknowns. If you have high picks, you don’t need much luck to get a good players. If you have good players on the roster, that reduces the number you’ll need to luck into in the future. So on and so forth.
Leon Rose has ensured that very few of those kinds of things apply to the team.
I thought this went without saying, but I guess not, so: if the trajectory of the Knicks improves under Leon Rose, I promise to update my priors on Leon Rose’s effect on the trajectory of the Knicks.
Our own Alan Sepinwall will be on former bucks front office guy Seth Partnow’s podcast tomorrow at 3:30.
“Again: there’s not a professional sports team that can’t claim that the future is bright if a bunch of things swing their way.”
Sure, if you are suggesting that Miles McBride would need to become Chris Paul 2.0 for the team to be good, then I would agree. But that’s not the case here. Each of the following would be an example of things that are reasonable bets to swing in the positive direction:
-RJ boosting his eFG to .500+ (he was at .499 in 2020-21 and just turned 22 years old…is that far-fetched?)
-Randle having some sort of bounceback year (he’s been good to excellent in 3 of his past 5 years…is that far-fetched?)
-Brunson playing to the back of his basketball card
-Mitch having a fully healthy season
-Obi, IQ and Grimes making incremental improvements in increased playing time
-Hartenstein being better than Noel in 70+ games
-Rose being healthy for 50+ games, like he has been for 6 of the past 8 seasons
But sure, if you are convinced that none of these things will happen, I get the pessimism. Or if you want to assume that a consolidation trade for a solid but not superstar wing is not possible without mortgaging the future, being that the entire league is saturated with rotation-level talent from 1-12 on pretty much every roster, then whatever.
I think the current Vegas line of 39.5 is very accurate. And 2+ years into a rebuild, it’s not a terrible place to be IF you still have all of your picks, plus 4 surplus firsts and 4 surplus seconds, and no impossible-to-move contracts (Randle’s might take sweetener right now, but that could change very fast if he kils it out of the gate and the team starts winning. If you want to believe that Julius is irrevokably washed up at age 27, and that there’s no way he can put up 20-10-5 more efficiently, so be it.)
BTW, things like player development and roster construction actually ARE under team’s control. We needed a starting PG and got one, the best one available. We needed a healthy backup C and got one, someone actually better than a healthy Noel. IQ and Obi took off at the end of last year. All of those are team control things.
76ers tanked for 5 seasons before they even made the playoffs. We haven’t even started the third year under Rose and have a team full of youngsters with a baseline of being about 500 and we just added a good PG to that team. Oh and we still have a shit ton of picks.
Were you calling the process a failure after two seasons? We’ve already made the playoffs and were only a little below 500 last year.
If the Knicks haven’t made the playoffs again after 5 seasons under Rose then yeah we can all rose a failure. But if you’re cool with a 5 season tank job by the 76ers as a process then you should give as much time to Leon for his process to work. Notice the word is process not plan. So saying Leon doesn’t have a coherent plan doesn’t matter. He has his own process too.
“Were you calling the process a failure after two seasons? We’ve already made the playoffs and were only a little below 500 last year.”
“But if you’re cool with a 5 season tank job by the 76ers as a process then you should give as much time to Leon for his process to work.”
So is Leon going to beat the 5-year timetable to become a “perennial 2nd round playoff team?” You’ve made clear that you think 5-years is unacceptably long when it comes to achieving that status. That must mean the great Leon Rose will beat it, no?
“It reveals that “be a mediocre team and accumulate surplus mediocre assets and hope to trade them for a star” is a bad plan.”
Apparently so is tanking, falling in the lottery, drafting KP, watching him break down, being horrible again, trading him for trash, tanking, falling in the lottery, drafting RJ, and then whining because we have to pay him.
Every approach has been studied statistically and the data is available. We should even be debating this stuff anymore.
All you can do is put yourself in a good position given your market, do mostly smart things, hope to get lucky, and have more patience than a flea. It’s mostly about execution and luck, not the approach. If there’s a complaint, focus on execution.
“Each of the following would be an example of things that are reasonable bets to swing in the positive direction:”
And what makes our position so bad is that most or all of these things could happen without our position materially improving. This is a laundry list of things that could get us to, say, 44 wins instead of 39. Does that make it materially more likely the Knicks contend in the semi-near future?
“Or if you want to assume that a consolidation trade for a solid but not superstar wing is not possible without mortgaging the future, being that the entire league is saturated with rotation-level talent from 1-12 on pretty much every roster, then whatever.”
I have no idea what the likelihood of this is, but I have the same question about it: does “a consolidation trade for a solid but not superstar wing” make it more likely we contend in the semi-near future?
We know exactly what brings together otherwise wildly different contending teams: star talent. We also all agree we have none of that on the roster right now.
I try to avoid using this shorthand because people inevitably harp on it way too much, but we know we need *at least* two players who can put up a 4+ BPM.
How do either of these things occurring make it more likely we get one of those guys?
My point is that Leon Rose has basically removed the ability to get these guys from his control. The Donovan Mitchell trade saga shows Leon Rose, probably correctly, wasn’t willing to go out and get a star that was actually within his grasp because it turned out his chosen method of doing so (accumulate some decent-but-not-great assets while maintaining a decent-but-not-great team) is not efficient.
Sure, he’s maintained control of some things that are far less important in the grand scheme of things. That’s why no one says he’s worse than, say, Phil Jackson, who screwed up everything he touched.
But at some point we have to compare him to his contemporaries, and Howard Beck made the point on his podcast today that just about every fellow play-in level team has more going for it in the future than the Knicks.
So Leon Rose can get all the “not as dumb as Phil Jackson” stickers he wants, they’re not doing anything for the Knicks.
“The Knicks’ big weakness is offensive eFG%. They got an absolute ton of low-efficiency FG attempts last year from Randle and Barrett. Those guys had a .459 and .466 eFG% respectively, and combined they took 35% of the team’s field goal attempts. For reference, league average eFG% was .532 last year.”
The major question is how much of that was the lack of a PG, lack of good spacing, and a solid plan on offense and how much was “them as players”.
I think it’s a little of both.
We can correct some of that, but for example I think Randle does his most efficient work on “offense” (not overall) when he’s playing C in space with a more defined and limited role in terms of the types of shots he’s taking. He’s not going to get that in NY. I wouldn’t want that too often anyway, but I don’t want him dominating the ball throwing up trash either. We may be able to correct some of that with a PG.
“Were you calling the process a failure after two seasons?”
There’s never been a single second since he took over in which Leon’s “process” could be fairly denominated a success. I can’t remember if I was the only one — probably not — but if you look back through the archives, I was bemoaning it virtually the entire empty building season.
So, yeah — after two years of it, it’s very easy to say. There’s nothing about this that’s even remotely “successful.”
The standard being used, as TNFH has pointed out, is completely silly. It’s like Sacto saying everything’s fine because after all they have both their 2023 draft picks and they could turn out to be the 2023 version of Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic.
Nobody measures things that way.
“Apparently so is tanking, falling in the lottery, drafting KP, watching him break down, being horrible again, trading him for trash, tanking, falling in the lottery, drafting RJ, and then whining because we have to pay him.”
Correct, Phil Jackson was a god damned moron to try to immediately build an 8th seed around Porzingis before we even knew if he was any good.
We were missing our 2016 pick, but we easily could’ve continued to build through the draft after that. Phil Jackson was too dumb and prideful to do it and instead tried to triangulate his way to mediocrity, and couldn’t even achieve that.
I’m glad you’ve realized this was all quite stupid, because for a while you refused to admit as much.
If the Knicks haven’t made the playoffs again after 5 seasons under Rose then yeah we can all rose a failure.
He hasn’t done a thing to warrant five years.
Wow, that’s great. I’ll try to listen. 🙂
Leon Rose is the new Frank Ntilikina.
“My point is that Leon Rose has basically removed the ability to get these guys from his control.”
You are making the exact opposite point. It actually WAS in his control. He CHOSE not to acquire one of those guys because the price was too high AT THIS TIME.
All you can do is put yourself in a good position given your market, do mostly smart things,
It wasn’t smart to extend Julius Randle. It wasn’t smart to turn the team over to Julius Randle. It wasn’t smart to hire Tom Thibodeau. It wasn’t smart to not draft 32nd. It wasn’t smart to not draft 18th. It wasn’t smart to sign a bunch of useless mercs to garner useless marginal wins to hurt the team’s draft position. It *really* wasn’t smart to not draft 11th.
Do we really need to keep doing this? Leon Rose has not remotely proven himself to be “smart.” All anyone can say in his favor now is that he might get lucky, which you can say about every single major sports franchise in North America.
I know we have a lot of flaws, but i’m very excited for the coming season. We have a rootable group of young guys, i hope some of them will be on the next great Knicks team.
First playoff appearance in 9 years. 500 ball in two seasons. Signed the best available free agent in 2022. Drafted IQ and Grimes. Has picked up extra draft picks and has left us with plenty of moves to make going forward. You’re right. Absolutely nothing
500 ball in two seasons.
Playing .500 ball (*) is exactly what he didn’t want to do.
Those weren’t my words and you misunderstand. I didn’t say he hasn’t made a couple ok moves — he has. I said that at no time since he took over could his tenure be properly called a “success,” and that’s true.
Hubert has already hit on it well, but he actually inherited a pretty decent situation with some nice assets, set up pretty nicely to rebuild and move toward real contention. He completely squandered it.
(And he actually caught a massive break when COVID passed just enough to open up the buildings late in 2020-21 and he got to see Randle completely spit the bit and get completely exposed. Gave him the opportunity for a rethink. He squandered that opportunity, too.)
(*) Actually they didn’t play .500 ball last year; they were 39-43.
“You are making the exact opposite point. It actually WAS in his control. He CHOSE not to acquire one of those guys because the price was too high AT THIS TIME.”
I will make another clarification I thought was initially clear in context, but apparently wasn’t: Leon Rose has basically removed the ability to get these guys from his control *in a manner that, by his own admission, does not cripple the team’s ability to get another guy and/or cripple the team more broadly*
“First playoff appearance in 9 years. 500 ball in two seasons. Signed the best available free agent in 2022. Drafted IQ and Grimes. Has picked up extra draft picks and has left us with plenty of moves to make going forward. You’re right. Absolutely nothing”
In a league where over 50% of the teams make the playoffs, making the playoffs and getting washed in the first round is generally not considered an end unto itself.
To be sure, it can be one step on the path a meaningful end, that being becoming a contending team. However the flip side of that is it can also be counterproductive, for example if the major contributors to the playoff team in question aren’t considered long-term assets to the team. This is why it’s generally considered unwise to make short-term oriented moves that seem to hold making the playoffs as an end unto itself.
It’s certainly not *inherently* a good thing to make the playoffs–any idiot can make the playoffs in a league where, again, more teams make it than don’t.
Let’s see if the essential members, say the 5 most important contributors by VORP, of the 2020-2021 Knicks are long-term assets:
Julius Randle: literally, a long-term *liability*
Nerlens Noel: no longer on the team
Alec Burks: no longer on the team
Derrick Rose: will be 34 years-old in a month
Reggie Bullock: no longer on the team
I love this comment. It ie very true. The only difference for me is that in the case of Ntilikina I was definitely in the pro-Frank camp. On Rose I am in the middle. The pessimists were right about Frank overall (although he is still employed in the NBA and a valued member of the Mavericks).
I’m in the middle on Rose because there are some things he is good at and they give me hope. On the other hand, the pessimists on this blog are often right and it’s very true we could wander around in mediocrity for a long time. I do think that by giving us young guys with hope it has done us fans a service and given us things to talk about. Let’s have more of that.
“I will make another clarification I thought was initially clear in context, but apparently wasn’t: Leon Rose has basically removed the ability to get these guys from his control *in a manner that, by his own admission, does not cripple the team’s ability to get another guy and/or cripple the team more broadly*”
But again, this is not true. If the team continues to add guys like Hart and Brunson, maybe subtracting guys like Julius (although I think it is prudent to not try to trade him at rock bottom) and building a 12-deep roster of guys that other teams might like to have, then you can get a guy without crippling future flexibility. That wasn’t the case this time, but mainly because giving up 3 key rotation players would leave a gaping hole in the rotation.
Let’s look around the league at possible second round playoff teams:
Maybe the Raps?
Maybe the Pels?
That’s 16-18 teams vying for 8 spots. Whivh means that 8-10 of those teams are going to either lose in the play-in or be eliminated in the first round. The Jazz could have stayed together and made the playoffs for the next 5 years or more. Ainge felt they had topped out and needed to rebuild. Given that a bunch of the teams above are going to be disappointed next year and beyond, do you think this is the last fire sale we will see?
Dejounte Murray is a really, really good player….maybe better than Spida, ymmv, but was available at a much lower price. I’m not sure whether Leon considered him, probably didn’t because he was fixated on Brunson and Spida, but the point is that he was available and we definitely could have beaten the Hawks offer without crippling the team’s future. He might not have been the greatest fit either, but the point is, he was available!
And that’s why I take issue with the notion that guys like Mitchell rarely come on the market, or by getting one, you box yourself out of acquiring a second star. It’s an overstatement.
Yes, if Leon Rose acquires a bunch of other good players, the Knicks’ trajectory will be better for a number of reasons. I continue to not really see the point in crediting him with things that have not occurred, and don’t seem to be on the horizon.
“Given that a bunch of the teams above are going to be disappointed next year and beyond, do you think this is the last fire sale we will see?”
Ever? No. Involving a young, legitimate offensive engine? Possibly for a while, I don’t see another one of those hitting the market anytime particularly soon.
“Dejounte Murray is a really, really good player….maybe better than Spida, ymmv, but was available at a much lower price. I’m not sure whether Leon considered him, probably didn’t because he was fixated on Brunson and Spida, but the point is that he was available and we definitely could have beaten the Hawks offer without crippling the team’s future. He might not have been the greatest either, but the point is, he was available!”
Dejounte Murray has a skillset that is much, much less scarce than Mitchell’s, who was the highest usage player on the #1 ranked offense in the league. The NBA confirmed this based on their respective trade packages.
I also think we need to see how good Brunson (who we acquired for nothing, please stop with the picks used to clear cap space, it was a good idea to jettison them for cap flexibility Brunson or no Brunson) really is before passing judgment on this current roster. He seems very much like a “makes guys better” kind of player to me, and he absolutely torched the Jazz and Donovan Mitchell in the playoffs (24, 41, 31, 23, 24, 24), then had 24 in the closeout game against the reigning WC champs. We don’t really know what we have in him or what his impact will be. With him, a healthy-ish DRose, and triple-double maching IQ running the point for 48 minutes instead of Burks and Randle, it should be an entirely different look than last year.
“Dejounte Murray has a skillset that is much, much less scarce than Mitchell’s, who was the highest usage player on the #1 ranked offense in the league. The NBA confirmed this based on their respective trade packages.”
He was also pathetic on defense, and not exactly James Harden on offense from an efficiency standpoint. The #1 offense was jettisoned from the playoffs by a team who for the first 3 games started Brunson, Finney-Smith, Dinwiddie, Bullock and Powell….essentially a lottery team on paper.
Hard to see how the Jazz would have done worse if they had Dejounte instead of Donovan.
So is Jalen Brunson not a good player and not a nice feather in the cap of Leon?
I get that he has a connection and history with the Knicks but Brunson could have gone anywhere in free agency he wanted or just stayed in the team that just went to the WCF and has maybe the best young player in the league right now on their roster. But he chose to come here. Sure money and a bigger role might have played a role but if he really thought the Knicks were garbage and had no future do you really think Brunson would say fuck it in signing here anyways? Doesn’t that point to players seeing us as more serious and competent?
What about Mitch resigning with us? He probably could’ve gotten a similar contract somewhere else. He’s young and a great defensive center who still has upside. But he chose to stay here at a very reasonable deal too.
I guess these things don’t matter bc we took a slight step back last year?
It just drives me crazy that so many people think being 500 is so fuckjng awful. It’s a nice spot to be if you’re team has young players (we do) and lots of first round picks (we do). Some very reasonable to expect positive things can happen this year that would make us good.
Well, the Mets are a pile of hot trash now, so that’s fun.
The point about Murray isn’t whether he’s better or less scarce than Mitchell. It’s whether Murray qualifies as a “top end” talent, and if yes, was he available at a non-crippling price. He did put up a 4.4 BPM last year, doesn’t that meet your standard?
“It just drives me crazy that so many people think being 500 is so fuckjng awful. It’s a nice spot to be if you’re team has young players (we do) and lots of first round picks (we do). Some very reasonable to expect positive things can happen this year that would make us good.”
I pointed earlier how the Heat tended to float around .500 post-LeBron, never tanked, never had a top of the lottery pick, and yet have been in the finals and conference finals. And that’s with making some truly putrid deals/signings and whiffing on some draft picks.
“I pointed earlier how the Heat tended to float around .500 post-LeBron, never tanked, never had a top of the lottery pick, and yet have been in the finals and conference finals. And that’s with making some truly putrid deals/signings and whiffing on some draft picks.”
When Leon Rose signs the equivalent of Jimmy Butler in unrestricted free agency, I’ll become President of the fan club.
“When Leon Rose signs the equivalent of Jimmy Butler in unrestricted free agency, I’ll become President of the fan club.”
Why did Butler sign there? Did the Heat being a preferred destination have anything to do with it? Has Leon accomplished that?
BTW it’s quite possible that the Heat top out at one finals appearance in the bubble and one ECF exit.
“BTW it’s quite possible that the Heat top out at one finals appearance in the bubble and one ECF exit.”
So is this something we should emulate or not?
Eldrid Peyton is having a workout with the Warriors
“So is this something we should emulate or not?”
At this point, yes. Not ideal, but not bad.
September 6, 2022 at 22:34
Well, the Mets are a pile of hot trash now, so that’s fun.”
I mean if you get to the finals you can win the finals, so that should be a goal.
I’m down on the Heat this year, but they’ve had a top 10 defense 14 years in a row. I would sign up for that consistency in a heartbeat. I’m a little surprised more top guys haven’t forced their way to the Heat post LBJ. Maybe Spo works them too hard.
Consecutive 2nd rd playoff appearances is an arbitrary standard. People’s views of what constitutes a successful season will differ, so it’s not worth drawing these lines.
Here’s some facts:
– The Knicks last made the 2nd rd in 2 consecutive seasons in 1999 & 2000
– The Knicks played their 2 best seasons in 10 years
– Most lists contain 3 items, this is that 3rd item
First time, long time fellas.
Not sure what all the doom and gloom is about around here. Yeah, we missed out on Spida and still employ Julius Randle. You know what else?
We added Jalen Brunson and Isaiah Hartenstein to a team that had a 41-41 Pythagorean WL, and subtracted Kemba Walker, Nerlens Noel, and Alec Burks (who is good but not a point guard, duh). We can also expect all of Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Obi Toppin to be better at basketball this year than they were last year. Jalen Brunson was also excellent in the 20-ish regular season and playoff games he played without Luka this year, so it’s not like he’s a good bet to be worse.
And you know what? If we suck, we have all of our picks and the coach who insisted on giving Elfrid Payton 2,000 minutes will be fired.
I’m not a fan of how Leon Rose has built the team so far, but I also acknowledge that this is the most talent the Knicks have had in a long time, and it hasn’t come at the cost of draft equity. I’m super bullish on the Brunson/Grimes/Barrett trio this season, though, so maybe I’m just crazy.
We really need basketball back.
Some people say unknowns are inherently bad. Some people say unknowns are opportunity.
Welcome glass rebuilt!!
What’s your take on Frank Ntilikina?
He is still the single greatest defender to breathe oxygen and lace up a pair of Nikes. The only player who can dream of surpassing him is Quentin Grimes.
Hey TGHR! Your grounded optimism is a welcome sight!
Well, the Heat have one thing going for them that Leon can do nothing about. I guess once a year all of you know what it is.
Give me one NBA Finals and one ECF in 5 years and i’ll say Leon is the best Knicks executive i’ve ever seen. 😀
Welcome back, Glass! 🙂 Spread the optimism to see if i can catch any of it! 😉
A lot of folks are going to praise Danny Ainge for what he has done thus far with the Jazz, but it isn’t every day that a guy can walk into a situation where there is a multiple DPOY in his prime and a young all-star just entering his prime, both under contract, on a team that is a lock to make the playoffs for the next few seasons and that has some draft capital to work with, that you have permission to swap out for draft capital and go full tank mode. I can’t think of another example of that happening to this degree.
The closest the Knicks have come to that in forever is KP, who was coming off of an ACL tear and demanded out. Had they gone full rebuild, the only draft capital they could have acquired would have come from renting out cap space.
In other words, it’s easier to accelerate a down-to-the-studs rebuild when you have multiple stars to trade. But still, the most valuable assets Dany has rignt now are his own picks.
In that sense, I agree that “tanking” is the most controllable way to acquire stars…far from certain in a short timeline, but eventually it works.
But as many teams have shown, it’s not the only way, and still requires competent decision-making in all phases of team-building. Drafting stars does not automatically equal building a contender.
Minny drafted KAT 7 seasons ago AND acquired Jimmy Butler as a second star. They have 2 first round exits to show for it.
In the past 15 years, the Pelicans drafted CP3, AD, and Zion. They STILL have yet to get past the second round (2 appearance in 21 years)
The Suns missed the playoffs for 10 straight years despite having multiple picks in the high lottery. Their best players were two late lottery picks and a well past his prime superstar PG. Most of their high lottery picks were busts.
The Kings have made tanking an art form (haven’t hit the 40 game mark since 2005-06 and since then have finished with under 30 wins 8 times) and haven’t made the playoffs in 16 years and counting.
Since 2011 the Magic have not gotten out of the first round and have had several high lottery picks.
The Pistons have not gotten out of the first round since 2008 and have missed the playoffs in 11 out of the past 13 seasons.
Sam Presti, one of the most successful GMs in the NBA in terms of draft acumen, acquired 3 HOFers via the draft in a short time and has still yet to hang a banner. His team had 4 straight first round exits before he fully embraced the tank, and even with all of his picks, his team looks at least 3 years away, which would amount to 5 years of abject tanking. That would be an impossibility in NYC.
Let’s see how long it is before the Rockets make any noise in the WC.
Same with the Spurs, who are embracing the tank as we speak.
In 2005, CLE drafted the modern GOAT with the #1 pick. It resulted in one finals ass-kicking. If LeBron didn’t decide on a homecoming as a free agent, they would still be on one finals loss. and possibly a 12 year playoff drought. Like Minny, they have gone all in on a core 4, sacrificing nearly all of their cap space and future draft capital. Lets see how it works out.