NY Post: This looks nothing like the Frank Ntilikina who has confounded Knicks

Berman is the hack of all hacks. Maybe Manish tops him but that’s a Jets beef with me.

@JK47 – I’m pretty angry at the NY Times for what they did in publishing the info on the whistle blower. They put his life in danger. There’s no reason to do that. But from a reader’s perspective, the fact that this is a CIA analyst does lend a lot of credibility to the complaint. I wish that we didn’t need to have a complaint.

Zach Lowe had a piece once suggesting a similiar rule for the end of regulation as well. Something like once the game clock passes a certain point you turn off the clock, establish a winning score as the currently leading team’s score+10 (or whatever number, I don’t remember exactly what he said but it’s easy enough to base it on the average scoring in that period) and then play to that number. This would actually eliminate OT altogether along with the hacking nonsense. It probably has some weird kinks and edge-case strategies that I’m not thinking of now, but man would I be in favor of dramatically shaking up how the end of close NBA games shakes out. It really is a black mark on an otherwise fantastic entertainment product.

It’s called the Elam Ending and has already created some controversy!

https://thecomeback.com/nba/elam-ending-suffers-first-setback-as-controversial-call-ends-upset-bid-of-3-time-defending-champion.html

I think the key to unlocking its potential lies in the win-by-two condition. You’d have the ability for “OT” games to go deeper, as long as they stay close, and of course, no one wants to see a team come from behind and win a game on foul shots.

And regarding the comment about playing games to 120: I’m not totally in favor of the Elam ending for every game, even though it would make for more exciting possessions in blowouts, since teams can’t just run out the clock and heave at the end of the shot clock. I think implementing it in preseason games would be interesting.

This video seems to be saying that Frank is a new player on the basis of three floaters that he hit.

I didn’t think the narration matched up to what I was seeing, either. Early on, for instance, he praises Frank’s tighter handle but the play we’re watching shows a pretty high dribble that he gets away with.

All I need Ntilikina to do is hit 35% of his 3’s. Shit..I’ll be ecstatic if he just masters the corner 3. He’s got a nice game..he’s certainly smart and skilled. He’s not a top athlete, but Fiz will be making a huge mistake if he doesn’t give him that “Mudiay, we gon get you right” energy. We NEED him at the point of attack on defense. Besides, I really really wanna see a backcourt of DSJ & Ntilikina.

Frank is still very young and if he works hard on his body and game he will be a viable NBA player at some point. The hard part is guessing when it will happen, It could be next week or in 5 years. I just hope that if they pick up his option, they don’t glue him to the bench. If he’s not good enough to play, then put him in the G-League and let him play 30+ mpg until he’s tearing it up down there (a week, month, whatever it takes.) Do NOT play him over vets just for developmental purposes, let him earn every minute he gets. If others falter/get injured/are traded or if the team falls out of the playoff chase, then sure, play him more.

That doesn’t mean yank him if he makes typical mistakes; it means demote him if he continues the trend of posting sub-zero WS48 numbers. He can no longer be rewarded for being a negative contributor. Same with Knox.

but Fiz will be making a huge mistake if he doesn’t give him that “Mudiay, we gon get you right” energy.

I don’t know if it would have done any good, but I was stunned he didn’t take that approach with him. That’s essentially what France did. They coddled him like the fragile 20 year old he is. Why we’ve done the opposite with him is perplexing.

Vorkunov wrote a piece about people associated with the team who have the most to lose this season, depending on how things go, Frank among them. I found this paragraph on Mills and Perry interesting for a few reasons:

Consider the wide variance in how this season could go for the Knicks. If the Knicks win, say, 41 games and make the playoffs, or even just miss, (let’s call this the optimal outcome), it’s a validation of the Mills/Perry rebuild. They will have managed to put together a roster that made the playoffs without a star. Theoretically, in this scenario, their young players have done well enough to help push the team toward the postseason. The Knicks are suddenly in a similar place to where the Nets were last April, but with better foundational talent. They wouldn’t get to go into an offseason with the same kind of free agents available as there were in 2019, but every star is basically a free agent nowadays if your organization is desirable enough. Heck, maybe Anthony Davis is serious about testing the market. Who knows. There’s a lot of depth to this rabbit hole. But the gist is clear: The Knicks would be feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good if the season plays out this way.

First, what would have to happen for this team to go from 17 wins to 41? Jared Dubin has published stats on how hard it is for 17-win teams to even make the jump to 30 the next year. We’re replacing a bunch of bad players with ones who are at least competent, but it feels like we’d need DSJ’s shot to be truly fixed, Barrett to be ready right away, and Frank and/or Knox to make quantum leaps, right?

Second, what do you think about the “better foundational talent” comparison to last year’s Nets?

At this point, I’m just happy that Frank may get a better look. When you have a plus defender that can guard multiple positions and he has a secondary skill like play making, imo you have to give the kid a chance to develop more of his game, especially when you knew coming in he was very raw and would need time on offense.

Personally, I don’t think they’ll send him down to the G league. I think he’d ask for a trade, especially coming off his role for France. If he can’t earn any minutes on this team, he should probably just be traded to a patient team that values defense and play making over scoring, creating your own shot etc… and then we can watch him lock down our scorers for the next decade while slowly improving his shot.

I’m just happy that Frank may get a better look.

What’s “a better look,” though? If they give him 20 mpg as the primary ballhandler in an unstructured offense and tell him to eat what he kills, he’s not going to do much better.

The article GoNYGoNY posted about makes the case that I think has been pretty obvious from the start: he needs to play with a table setter, not be the table setter. So many of his misses are bad shots that come from his inability to do what the role he’s in demands him to do.

A proper look for Frank has to be sharing the backcourt with Smith or Payton, and ideally with Barrett, Randle, and Robinson up front. But that means he’s getting minutes over Trier, Knox, and Morris. And I don’t see Fizdale letting that happen. Morris is here to play. And Trier and Knox are Fizdale favorites.

The Nets signed our old friend Lance Thomas. I look forward to Brooklyn fans spending this season asking “Why?” whenever Lance is on the court.

Also, this pretty much rules them out of signing Carmelo. When you can’t beat Lance Thomas for a roster spot…

I think he’s a very good fit with someone like Barrett “if” one of them is hitting 3s because they can both handle the ball and make plays. That may be more of a long term “idea” because neither of them is likely to be a “good” 3 point shooter this year.

If Frank could actually be the offensive player he is in those videos, pairing him with Barrett in the backcourt would be incredibly versatile on defense.

If Frank could actually be the offensive player he is in those videos, pairing him with Barrett in the backcourt would be incredibly versatile on defense.

100%

I like it a LOT from a theoretical standpoint. I’m patient enough. Is management?

41 just seems like a total pipe dream to me. We were 30th in offense and 26th in defense last year and to get to .500 you figure you need to be coming out to on average around 15th in both (just as rough guideline). Just to humor the premise I guess my theory of how it could possibly happen would be: first and foremost Mitchell really is already the star that some here think he is, particularly defensively and getting him up to 32 minutes a night is such a gamechanger that we get up to say 12th in D. And then on offense, we still lack game changing talent but the vets take a lot of load off the younger guys who slide into more appropriate roles and without a few guys really submarining the offense it gets up to like 18th or 19th. Throw in some good luck in close games and that maybe gets you there. To be frank though both of those feel like tremendous reaches. I would be pretty surprised if this is not a bottom-10 defense and bottom-10 offense again.

As for the 2nd part I think if you’re hypothesizing a situation in which the Knicks young guys lead a surge to .500 it’s not impossible that we could see it that way a year from now. The fact that Russell was no longer cost-controlled right as the Nets blew up meant that they had to basically trade him off for one of their big-money slots, which is something we wouldn’t have to worry about in this hypothetical. And Mitchell really popping could give us a significant edge in terms of top-end talent (although I think even in his high end scenarios he’s not necessarily going to be perceived as a star). The Nets have like 5 young guys under control who have shown they are NBA rotation guys though. And all of this is starting from the point of assuming the Knicks team wins ~25 more games than last year so…

@23 – I get the lack of trust in management and our coaching staff. And playing Mudiay, who they weren’t going to keep, did seem stupid. I don’t know why they didn’t play Frank and Dotson with Vonleh and Robinson more. I agree with your previously stated complaint about not resigning Vonleh too. I would much rather have Vonleh at $2M vs Portis at $15M. Portis might be a better offensive player but it was a head scratcher.

I’m going into the season skeptical about Fizdale too, but I’ll give him a chance to prove that he knows what he’s doing. BTW, one of my concerns is that there is no true defensive-minded coach on the staff. Maybe Mike Miller will step into that role. I don’t know. But without the emphasis on drilling that into the team, I’m concerned. But I’ll wait and see. This team is designed to play rough-and-tumble basketball. Players like Kevin Knox and even Julius Randle, could use that coaching.

asking “Why?” whenever Lance is on the court.

KD loves Lance.

To get to 41 wins you’d have to assume the Knicks play Mitch at center a lot, he plays like an all-star, and either Peyton or DSJ plays like a league average PG, we give heavy minutes to Bobby Portis, Randle, Taj Gibson and Wayne Ellington and I guess Marcus Morris, and some of the kids don’t actively suck. It’s a lot that needs to go well with nothing going wrong.

The guard play on this team is likely to be somewhere between “bad” and “black hole.”

Elfrid Payton is a pretty nice boxscore-stuffing PG but he’s not without his shortcomings and he is by far the best guard on the roster. The other guards are so-far-bust young players (DSJ, Frank), dime-a-dozen veterans (Ellington, Bullock) and rookies who are likely to struggle (RJB). I honestly don’t see how you get anywhere near 41 wins with that guard rotation.

41 wins isn’t even an ideal outcome.

The Lakers won 37 games but got the #4 pick. Would they even have gotten AD if they had won 41 games and lost to Golden State in round 1? The best case scenario for the Knicks this year (on the court) is around 34 wins with solid contributions from the kids.

Side note: for all the grief he gets here, it’s worth pointing out that the NBA is gravitating towards Strat’s preferred way of rebuilding over tanking. The Clippers and Nets followed “the Stratomatic method” to a T, and now it looks like the Knicks, after one fruitful year of tanking, are taking the same path.

And there’s a reason for the shift, too: given the shortening of contracts, an established star or two is available literally every year. The odds now considerably favor acquiring one on that way over through the draft.

Coaching matters, role matters, etc. but at a certain point if you find yourself constantly arguing that the only reason Player X hasn’t excelled is because he hasn’t been used correctly, you’re probably not sufficiently weighing the possibility that Player X is just bad.

Because of the way the draft works, the top lottery picks go to terrible, dysfunctional teams all the time. The good ones still tend to show they belong, and pretty early at that. Nobody had any questions about the long-term viability of 19 year old Kyrie Irving on a team coached by Byron Scott with Ramon Sessions as its second best player.

Perhaps Frank Ntilikina could carve out an NBA role if he’s used perfectly, whatever that looks like for someone who can’t shoot, dribble, or rebound, but how much time are you willing to spend on finding the proper way to utilize Frank Ntilikina? What’s the payoff? What opportunity costs does it come with?

When I take all of that into account, I continue to doubt that the Knicks, or any other NBA team, will view Ntilikina as a worthwhile investment.

But hey, I have no problem with picking up his option and giving him all the minutes he can handle (or not, because that ruins his confidence or something, but also you can’t give him too few minutes, because then he’s in the doghouse because the morons don’t appreciate defense and whatnot). We’re not exactly doing anything else important or interesting anyway.

The Clippers and Nets followed “the Stratomatic method” to a T, and now it looks like the Knicks, after one fruitful year of tanking, are taking the same path.

The Clippers were in a completely different win curve situation. If you’re a perennial 45-50 win team, yeah, tanking is probably not a great strategy. The Nets’ best players last year were 22-year old D’Angelo Russell and 20-year old Jarrett Allen. They also got some value from young players like Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris Levert, who were scrap heap pickups. They got almost all of their value from the kind of young players you look to pick up when you’re rebuilding.

Most of us here who are considered “pro-tank” are actually pro REBUILD. Acquire assets with upside, don’t fuck around with market value veterans, acquire draft picks and players on rookie contracts until you’re ready to push your chips in. This is pretty much what the Nets did. They took lots of chances on young players who still had upside, and enough of them paid off. That’s the idea!

And there is the rub when it comes to tanking. A coach/team can’t say their tanking or else they get fined.

And that means it’s difficult to parse a lot of Fiz’s dumber-seeming decisions of last season. Was he riding Mudiay as a tank commander, or because he liked his aggressiveness and believed he could fix him? Was Knox’s green light a developmental choice or another tank move? Or a bit of both? Did Frank go in the dungeon because Fiz didn’t like his game, or because the team actually played well for a few games when Frank was starting? Etc, etc.

We know they are trying to be competitive this year. I’m skeptical of Fiz — guys like Brett Brown have demonstrated ways to build a system even in tanking years, as opposed to whatever the bleep our offense was supposed to be — but there’s at least a chance that he proves to be much better at rotation choices and Xs and Os than he was last year.

Side note: for all the grief he gets here, it’s worth pointing out that the NBA is gravitating towards Strat’s preferred way of rebuilding over tanking. The Clippers and Nets followed “the Stratomatic method” to a T, and now it looks like the Knicks, after one fruitful year of tanking, are taking the same path.

How many god damn times does this need to be easily debunked? I’ve gone through all the ways it’s obviously wrong in detail, but basically the Clippers couldn’t have done any of this shit without #1 overall pick Blake Griffin, while the Nets did every aspect of Hinkieism besides getting the high lottery picks (because they didn’t have them). Seriously, they took on every salary dump they could. For all intents and purposes they tanked, ignoring the embarrassment of handing over their specific pick every year.

WTF would we only play Marcus Morris 19 minutes/game?

He’s not particularly good and we’re giving minutes at his positions to RJ and Knox and Randle

OT: Charlie Scharf left Mellon Bank to go run Wells Fargo this morning. In two hours, WFC market value is up by $8 Billion while BNY Mellon is down over $2 Billion. How does Buffet & the Board decide Charlie’s compensation based on his performance & value add?

This is what LBJ was talking about being underpaid with max contract. He saw first hand back in 2010, what happened to Cleveland value vs Miami.

Wow, you guys will go to some lengths.

What strat always said is that teams shouldn’t be bad ever, they need to incrementally improve their team by good signings and winning trades. How is that even remotely similar to opening cap space and swinging for superstars?

Why can’t you do the former while maintaining flexibility for the latter? That’s what LA did. That’s what Brooklyn did. That’s what we’re trying. That’s the correct way to execute his method of rebuilding. The trick is to execute the plan with young players and short term contracts, not old players on long term contracts (that’s the “Phil Jackson method”).

The Clippers were in a completely different win curve situation. If you’re a perennial 45-50 win team, yeah, tanking is probably not a great strategy.

They were a perennial 50 win team because of Paul and Griffin, and they reached the end of the line with them. The traditional rebuild style would have been to trade those guys off for as many picks as possible. They opted to eschew troves of picks and bottoming out to acquire good players instead. Players who could keep them in the 40+ win range. It’s exactly what he’s always argued for.

Seriously, they took on every salary dump they could.

What is the difference between acquiring a good pick for an overpriced player and winning a trade?

I do think the Clips are a pretty good argument (and there are others) that you can do something other than lean in to the boom-bust cycle when you’re reaching the end of the line with a good team. That said, that’s still a pretty different question than one the Knicks have ever been asking, given that they were coming from the starting point of being a good team. The question of whether to try to go up or down from the starting point of 25 wins does not necessarily (and I would argue does not) have the same answer as from a starting point of 45-50 wins. I would also argue that a lot of their best moves showed a real willingness to get worse if that’s where the value was – e.g. despite being in the playoff chase last year they dealt their best player for future picks at the deadline.

The Nets would have picked 1st and 3rd at the bottom of their cycle if they had owned their own picks. They totally bottomed out. What’s impressive is that they managed to cycle back up without the actual benefits of those picks and if anything it highlights that the pluses of rebuilding are not limited to the picks you make; they got Levert and Allen from picks they got from dealing veteran contributors. They got a bunch of picks and Russell taking on bad money. They took fliers on young guys and found Dinwiddie and Harris on the scrap heap. Because they didn’t care about winning they gave all those guys all the minutes they could handle and developed them all really well. All of those are the benefits of rebuilding, not reasons to say it wasn’t a factor in their success.

I think the role model for rebuilds is the NY Yankees. In their “down” year, they sold off their big assets for prospects and were back in the playoffs right away. Yeah, comparing the Knicks to the Yankees is idiotic for many reasons, but the essential fact is that the Knicks are much better poised today to follow a similar model. They have more picks, fewer long-term contracts and some promising kids. They aren’t good but they are currently deep.

Whether you want to admit that Strat was ahead of the curve or not, it is readily apparent that the combination of shorter contracts and flattened lottery odds makes being in the 30-38 win range a much better place for a large market team to be than it used to be, provided you’re not going all out with old players on long term deals to get there. And bottoming out is now a bad place to be if you’re a large market team.

If I’m looking for ideal outcomes this year, 34 wins > 41 wins > 17 wins.

here ya go stat heads:
On Friday, Belichick’s thoughts on in-game analytics were sparked by a question on older players, such as Bills running back Frank Gore, 36, continuing to have success in the NFL. Belichick was asked whether his view of players and their age has changed due to advances in conditioning, exercise science and nutrition.

“It’s a really good question,” he said. “Personally, I just try to take everything based on what I see, and not try to maybe read too much into other numbers and so forth. As you know, analytics is not really my thing. I don’t know if there’s any set formula or model for what it is today or what it was some other year. I’m sure you could go to some analytics person and they’d be able to give you a great numerical answer on that.”

eye test, all day every day baby…

If you admit Leonard to the Clippers only worked because Leonard was only going to a LA team, then it becomes a similar situation to the building through draft arguments. People say, but what if the 1st overall pick turns out to be a bust? Then the question is, well, what if Giannis or whatever star simply does not want to be in the city or the organization you have?

All things considered, with the heavy drafting strategy at least you still have the leverage of getting one or more guys that will play for you for a period. With the Clippers strategy, if you whiff on the one transcendent star available, you’re left with a 38 win team that’s also likely to go nowhere. All that matters is if you think the chance of making incremental improvements to the 38 win team is better then striking gold in the lottery / asset gathering period. I still think the second option is safer and more likely to produce results.

To get a star through the draft:

A) there needs to be one

B) it needs to be clear who it is

C) you need to win the lottery

Wrong. Many, many, many star players have been drafted by teams that did not win the lottery. Don’t even make me list the dozens of examples.

What you need is A LOT OF PICKS. That gives you more darts to throw at the board. I kind of can’t believe we’re really arguing this but here we are.

Jesus. Every star was once a draft pick, so yeah, you’re going to win that one.

Let’s reframe it: Even under the old lottery odds, if you were a large market team like the Knicks, Lakers, Clippers, Nets this past summer and Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving were available, would you have a better chance of landing a star if you were a 40 win team with a solid base or a 17 win team?

For the 17 win team, you needed to win the lottery and you needed Zion to be there. The low factor is Zion being there. You get a clear generational talent every 6/7 years., whereas in this environment we get between 1 and 5 established stars available every single year. Whether you multiply the odds of him being available by 25% or 14% doesn’t make the probability greater than the large-market-40-win team’s ability to land one of the 5 stars available via free agency or trade if they’ve been rebuilding well.

The shortened contracts are a much bigger factor than the flattened odds.

Jesus. Every star was once a draft pick, so yeah, you’re going to win that one.

Dude, it’s your terrible framing that’s the issue here. To get a star through the draft, you need to win the lottery. You said that ish. Maybe don’t say stuff that’s clearly wrong and I won’t need to be Captain Obvious over here.

Putting the goal posts at “Would you rather be a 40 win team with a promising core of talent or a 17-win team?” is still a complete distortion of any question that has ever been debated on here. Nobody in the entire world thinks it’s bad to be a 40 win team with a promising core. The question is what to do when you’re a 25 win team without a promising core, and if your answer is “Duh, become a 40-win team with a promising core” then some people, myself included, don’t really consider that a very satisfying answer.

There clearly more than one way to skin a cat. While some strategies have better odds then others, its really about the execution. Both Warriors and Patriots have won multiple titles using exactly opposite strategies. Warriors use soft human approach and analytics while Patriots use tough love “do you job’ and eye test. Cashman openly tells players “my job is to replace you” and he’s one of the best in the business.

At end of the day, question to ask yourself is “do you trust Mills/Perry to execute their plan and Fiz to get the most out of the players he has?”

Fiz got a pass till now because it is really difficult to look good while loosing on purpose. My problem with Perry/Mills is that they just keep kicking can. With those two, it’s not about any wrong moves that they made but its about the lack of opportunities they passed up on.

Would you rather have a young Tom Brady or a young coach Belichick? I go with Brady.

ha…too funny bockadoo – i’d pick belicheck every time…as much as i dislike the pats – they do a phenomenal job with their roster and payroll…

i’m not sure there’s ever been a player more valuable to their franchise than what belicheck has done for the patriots…

I wanted to see what we thought of SGA before the draft last year:

http://knickerblogger.net/knicks-morning-news-2018-03-23/

Highlights:

1) Farfa and a bunch of other people saying, “Dear god, anyone but Sexton.”
2) A lot of people wanting SGA with few reservations.
3) TNFH saying that he wanted to trade down for any two of Robert Williams, Zhaire Smith, SGA or Troy Brown, any pair of whom would make me fucking filthy wet for this season.
4) 2For18 calling Sexton a “baller”
5) iserp calling for tanking for Kawhi via FA (RIP hopes and dreams)
6) A lot of people saying trading for Kawhi would be a huge mistake, which I will not hold against them.
7) kevin5318 posting a tweet to a rumor that the Knicks wanted Knox, which promptly outrage from the usual realists.
8) Icing on the fucking cake: Henry George responding to the Knox rumors (in March!) with:

I continue to be amazed at how easily folks fall for anything they read.

Sukkaz!

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Im not a prophet but i believe that if the Cavs or the Bucks had grabbed and kept wounded Embiid

Did they?

Dude, it’s your terrible framing that’s the issue here. To get a star through the draft, you need to win the lottery. You said that ish. Maybe don’t say stuff that’s clearly wrong and I won’t need to be Captain Obvious over here.

I didn’t lay out A B and C?

Probability of landing a star =

Probability there is one X

Probability you know who he is X

Probability you win the rights to draft him.

Flattening the lottery odds didn’t change the math that much. The low probability comes from the first two.

Is this entire premise based on the fact that they signed Jared Dudley to a one-year deal prior to this season? I don’t see literally anything else that matches the description of some “hybrid” strategy nonsense.

I think that the “hybrid” stuff for them is just that they had no draft picks, so they couldn’t get lottery picks like other teams in their situation. I agree that beyond that, they just clearly acted like every other rebuilding team should, so it’s a meaningless distinction. They just collected assets while losing until they had enough assets that they weren’t losing anymore.

Putting the goal posts at “Would you rather be a 40 win team with a promising core of talent or a 17-win team?” is still a complete distortion of any question that has ever been debated on here. Nobody in the entire world thinks it’s bad to be a 40 win team with a promising core. The question is what to do when you’re a 25 win team without a promising core, and if your answer is “Duh, become a 40-win team with a promising core” then some people, myself included, don’t really consider that a very satisfying answer.

So much twisting of words,

We have said for years that if you’re a 17 win team, stay a 17 win team as long as you can so you can accumulate more picks bc rebuilding through the draft was the best way.

We have said for years that we shouldn’t pursue marginal wins that put us in the 8 and 9 spot in the lottery.

Do not sit here and tell me that has not been a constant theme here.

Now, because there are so many stars available every year via trade and free agency, because all of them want to go to large markets, and because the lottery is so random… NOW it’s actually better to pursue those marginal wins (if you’re the Knicks, not if you’re the Charlotte Hornets), as long as you maintain the flexibility to sign a max free agent. Now it’s actually better to do what Perry did this year than to stay on the mat have the worst record in the league. Now the opportunity cost of doing that *for us* – again, not for Charlotte – is too high.

^ that’s the point y’all are arguing against. Go ahead and make an actual counter instead of trying to make 100 different mini arguments and bringing up Phil Jackson. Tell me why we’re still better off trying to accumulate multiple years of top 5 picks while stars are going to every large market team except us.

If you wanted to follow last season with another 17 win season, you’re stuck in the past.

I guess I just don’t buy the rationale that the superstars of tomorrow are going to want to play for NYK because the Taj Gibson/Wayne Elllington/Marcus Morris marginal wins fooled them into thinking the Knicks are a legit team. I’d rather have a 1RP than that Taj Gibson/Marcus Morris cred.

I dunno, maybe it’ll work but it seems like you’d get better results stockpiling draft picks and going with a youth movement. You can even trade the draft picks you have stockpiled for disgruntled stars! This is at least a different approach for NYK, so I’m somewhat intrigued. This should be an interesting season.

Tanking and Picking productive performers from the Ncaa is the safe/boring/uncreative way to go.
Picking Giannis, Kps, Ntilikinas and even Knoxes is the ‘gambling’ way which could turn to bust or beast.
Personally I’m tired of mediocre knicks but I also don’t believe in everlasting tanking.
Finding Mitches and Triers at the garbage tells me that you can make a good team from 0.
But you have to know the game well.
And risk.
There are other 29 teams wanting the same shit…

If the Knicks being good this year depends on RJ being good, Then the Knicks will not be good. 19yo rookies almost always are net negative players..

Put another way, there is a far better chance that Knox is a positive contributor than Barrett.

Thing is, the current Knicks roster has several kinds of flexibility. It’s not a clunky hybrid model like The one Phil botched. They can still take on salary dumps in exchange for expiring deals…not as fungible as cap space but with the benefit of being somewhat competitive while further developing a young core.

that’s the point y’all are arguing against. Go ahead and make an actual counter instead of trying to make 100 different mini arguments and bringing up Phil Jackson. Tell me why we’re still better off trying to accumulate multiple years of top 5 picks while stars are going to every large market team except us.

With less money than was given to Portis alone, the Knicks could’ve taken on Harkless’ expiring deal and gotten a first round pick. Harkless is the superior player by every metric, and is only two years older. We know for a fact that this opportunity existed because the Blazers had to search for a long time to find someone willing to do it.

For almost the exact amount of money given to Portis and Gibson, the Knicks also could’ve taken on Iguodala’s expiring deal with a first round pick.

We’d have two extra first round picks and I’m not sure we’d lose a single more game than we will with the path we actually took. You really think this would’ve been stupid because of the possibility that Portis and Gibson will trick Giannis into thinking the Knicks are on the cusp?

See here’s the thing about guys willing to take these year-to-year free agent deals that preserve flexibility: they tend to not be very good. So sure, I’ll eat my words if Taj Gibson, Bobby Portis, Marcus Morris, Wayne Ellington, Reggie Bullock, and Elfrid Payton make the Knicks an irresistible destination for the top players in the NBA. For now, I’ll confidently say that I would’ve preferred to get more opportunities to draft our own good players.

I mean the more I think about this argument the more ridiculous it becomes. Even if you want to give NBA players zero credit for being able to determine how good a team’s actual core is, they have entire teams of agents, advisors, etc. who will give them this information.

So even if Giannis himself is intrigued by the Knicks chugging along to 37 wins or whatever with the help of a bunch of guys they can’t keep if they sign Giannis, he’ll have a bunch of people in his ear telling him “slow down, here’s approximately how many wins came from the guys you’d actually be playing with.”

As our side of this debate has always maintained, if that number is high, great! I have never seen anyone complain about wins fueled by guys that might be part of a core, whether it was Porzingis or Hernangomez or Mitch (ain’t exactly a long list huh). Those are the kinds of marginal wins that could be useful in luring free agents.

But Maurice Ndour hitting a game winner on the last day of the 2017 season that tied our win total with the Wolves’ and put us in Frank Ntilikina land didn’t attract a single extra free agent and that’s factorial.

Here’s a question for y’all:

Which players will make their first All-NBA team this year, and which perennials favorites will find themselves on the outside looking in?

@95

We are still in a terrible position, but not because we are old, capped out, have no picks, and suck like the old days.

We went from that horror show to having a mix of good young talent and veterans, all out picks, 2om of cap pace, and very good basketball minds building a team, but with horror show GM level decision making on veteran contracts.

We got rid of Phil/Gains and his smart basketball people (that were clueless at GM level decision making), moved Mills to President instead of GM (after he also screwed the pooch with Hardaway and the 20m), hired a reasonably competent GM in Perry (nothing special but no disasters), but now we have a management team that doesn’t know a damn thing about basketball talent or how to fit pieces together in order to create a winning team.

We are doing a much better job of not making GM level errors on veteran contracts due to Perry, but we need competent basketball people to take advantage of out space flexibility and picks to draft and bring in the RIGHT kinds of players or we are going keep treading water unless we get extremely lucky.

Which players will make their first All-NBA team this year, and which perennials favorites will find themselves on the outside looking in?

i’ll guess that westbrook has made his last all nba team. i’m interested in what interesting stuff the rockets try, but i think russ’ inherent age risk and james harden are not tailwinds.

doncic has a shot at being a 20 yr old all nba-er. i’m a big de’aaron fox fan, and it’s possible, but ben simmons is probably the number 2 candidate. also wouldn’t be hard to see siakam taking blake’s spot.

Randle was the best fit for the Knicks this offseason. Signing him was the best move they could make and they went out and signed him.

That sounds like basketball people to me.

On the other hand, phil signed Derrick Rose and Arron Afflalo. Clearly great basketball moves.

Maybe the Lakers too if AD gets hurt.

When AD gets hurt. He’s never played a full season.

Phil Jackson bet his job on Melo and gave him Jr. Smith, Derick Rose, Noah, Lee and Shumpert with Fisher as the guy to put it all together. Hindsight is 2020 and its easy to see these were all huge mistakes now…but the time Melo was a fringe MVP candidate, Rose a former MVP, made a comeback, passed his eye test & while putting up 18 PPG. Noah was a all NBA defender, NY native, good culture guy and perennial winner since Florida days, while JR Smith, Shump and Lee were more than OK at the time.

Yeah, total hindsight. Everyone on this board loved the idea of signing Carmelo Anthony to the largest contract in the NBA with a full no trade clause, trading for Derrick Rose, and giving Joakim Noah 4/$72M. Those threads are nothing but us all singing the praises of the Zen Master, and now everyone wants to be a Monday morning quarterback. Can’t argue with that.

http://knickerblogger.net/2016-fa-roundtable-joakim-noah/

http://knickerblogger.net/2016-fa-roundtable-willy-hernangomez-and-mindaugas-kuzminskas/#comments

http://knickerblogger.net/2016-fa-roundtable-brandon-jennings/

lol Z-man

But yeah, I’m definitely riding the Rose Express full steam ahead until it derails, so get used to it. If you want to gloat when that happens, more power to you and the rest of the box score geeks.

lol

http://knickerblogger.net/2016-fa-roundtable-head-coach-jeff-hornacek/#comment-539006

How about you simply promise to post one of the following two sentences:

1) I, Cock Jowles, was totally wrong on the Derrick Rose trade, and Phil Jackson was totally right, and I will never criticize him again for this deal.

2) reub is my daddy.

Guess what I never was obligated to write!

Being Optimistic during the PJackson/Melo Knicks era looks similar to growing your hair&beard, wearing psychedelic clothes, painting your body and getting stoned during the 60s !
Many Years later it seems kitsch & dumb & immature but WHO FKN CARES ?!?
I believed in PJax too.
I had the need to believe in him.
I defended his moves believing that he knew better.
Time showed the opposite.
He made mistakes. He tried dated plans. He lost his bball magic….

So what ?
Peace & Love !

Nah, Knew Your Knicks likes good music, can’t be Dolan’s burner

@114
Let me make it more clear:
JD & the straight shot is straight shit !

I hated the idea of Joakim Noah the second it was rumored, and I hated it even worse when I found out how ridiculously shitty that contract was. And lots of people here basically said I was a pessimistic crank so to those people I say “I told you so.”

I gave Phil Jackson a chance but I knew his tenure was a failure with that signing. Fuck you and your pinch post, Phil.

I hated the idea of Joakim Noah the second it was rumored, and I hated it even worse when I found out how ridiculously shitty that contract was. And lots of people here basically said I was a pessimistic crank so to those people I say “I told you so.”

When you read the old threads, the thing that really stands out to me is the anger from dudes defending moronic decisions. I really don’t even mean any of our regulars. If you look at those older threads, the angriest dudes were guys who you don’t see anymore (I’d like to say because they were embarrassed, but more likely they just didn’t like us pointing out their poor takes all the time, which, hey, fair enough, I guess. Don’t hang out somewhere that you don’t enjoy hanging out). There was this one guy in the Melo Max thread that Jowles linked to recently that was really going hard at anyone who disliked the Melo deal. I don’t believe he’s around anymore. Heck, ruru didn’t even go that hard at people who didn’t like the Mega Max Melo deal, for crying out loud. This dude was actually rocking, “You’re all just jealous of Melo!”

The Joakim Noah deal was definitely a bad one, but I didn’t expect it to be so bad so quickly. I thought he had at least another year and a half of Bulls-level Noah, but that guy never showed up because he was “too lit” for New York. For him to bounce back in Memphis (albeit in way less minutes than he would have been playing in New York) was annoying and spoke more about his character and the organizational culture more than it spoke about his health.

if you could get the 24th pick in 2020 for a package of either 1. knox and frank or 2. dsj and trier, would you? and if so, which of those two packages would you rather give?

DSJ and Trier are gonezo….

Although a trade of Knox and Frank for the 24th could lead to the departure of Mills and Perry, starting a cascade that leads to Masai arriving in NYC. In which case that.

Is the Obey Mozgov shirt still a top seller here at KB? (I mean to ask that question every time I see the ad for it)

Is the Obey Mozgov shirt still a top seller here at KB? (I mean to ask that question every time I see the ad for it)

I like that all of the shirts are for players no longer on the team.

Time to come up with shirts for the new guys? Problem is we can’t agree on nicknames for guys like Mitch.

I think each of the 4 guys are at least as good as what you hope to get at pick #24, and most players picked that low don’t pan out. Frank and Knox were serious reaches but are still young enough to show something this year. If there was a 2019 redraft and Frank, Trier, Knox and DSjr were included, do you think any of them would get picked at or above #24?

I would probably trade Frank, DSJ and Trier for the 24th but not Knox. We still have 3 years of control over Knox contract and we should just wait and see if he develops. I would trade the others mostly because they will have to be re-signed soon and they haven’t shown enough to be sure fire re-signings, so it makes sense to roll over for a new prospect with 4 more years of team control. I like Trier a bit but I think his ceiling is a competent 6th man, so I’d be comfortable trading him for a better asset under team control.

The sad thing about Frank situation is we are not playing and developing him bec he’s not good but we are playing the likes of Mudiay and other PG vets. Given that our team is nowhere close to a playoff seed i think that is a bad combination for the management and coaching staff.

I guess I’m less concerned with team cost control and more concerned with having good players. The vast majority of guys available at #24 or below are bad, and that you’re going to wind up with team control over a bad player. I think each of the guys suggested are more likely to be good NBA players than the typical #24 pick. Trading two of them for a #24 seems to be a low percentage play.

I do think more highly of Knox and Trier than most here. Frank (less so) and DSjr (more so) are still interesting to me and I’d like to give them one more shot to impress before ditching them.

Trier was an awesome find for an undrafted rookie, but one more year of cost-control and then he’ll be overpaid for his one skill: one-on-one offense.

Lou Williams was hugely valuable to the Clippers last year. We have no idea whether he’ll be better at other aspects of the game, but even as a pure scorer off the bench, he could be a very valuable player, even more so if he ups his 3-pt volume. Offense is king in today’s game, especially if you have a potential DPOY guarding the rim and blocking 3’s at the same time.

I agree with Z-man. A number 24 pick usually doesn’t get you an NBA player, even though it’s obviously a possibility. I have more faith in Frank and DSJ than that, especially because they are point guards, and point guards often take a long time to develop. Knox has clearly not been given enough time and I wouldn’t trade him either. Trier I have mixed feelings about. If the right guy was available at 24, maybe, but not for a future 24 we know nothing about.

You also have to consider that we get 2 extra roster spots now. I take my chances with a pick and two roster spots of landing someone. If the contracts were longer and more favorable on Frank and Trier, I keep them. I probably keep Knox and DSJr, but that’s close still.

Trier’s contract situation is a drag, but I think he’s got potential that a lot of folks here overlook because he’s such a stereotypical New York Knick.

Amassing a .564 TS% with a pretty horrid shot chart is (unnecessarily) difficult. He shot 39% from 3, yet only took 25.5% of his total FGAs from there. It’s not the biggest stretch stretch to think he could approach the .600 TS% range with some natural improvement, better decision making, and better coaching. That’s kind of what Klay Thompson did (obviously, that’s where the similarities would end even if you think Klay is overrated defensively). That would be a pretty damn valuable player at his usage.

How likely is it that all of those things happen? Not terribly, but I think it’s a better bet than the 24th overall pick in just about any draft I can remember.

We still arguing about Daniel Jones or what? You see what he wore to the stadium? Talk about a nerd.

Yeah…. he had a crappy day today completing only 74.2% of his passes today. He DID make 2 particularly bad plays today but he also extended 3 drives with his legs. He dropped down to third in the league in total QBR:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

I’m guessing not many people would rather have Haskins over him today 🙂 Also note Deandre Baker’s name didn’t get mentioned a single time and Ximines got another half sack, Slayton caught a couple of balls and made some terrific downfield blocks. Connelly played great until getting carted off.

By the way that shitty Tampa team the Giants beat last week put an absolute thumping on the LA Rams today. Minnesota will be a real test for this team next week especially with Connelly carted off with only 3 healthy linebackers and facing Mn running game.

You can’t lead a football team looking like a dang poindexter!

Unfortunately, it’s almost inevitable that some important role player on some team that considers itself a contender will suffer an injury at some point. That would be the time for us to trade someone and get value in return.

Unfortunately, it’s almost inevitable that some important role player on some team that considers itself a contender will suffer an injury at some point. That would be the time for us to trade someone and get value in return.

Some podcast I listened to yesterday (Lowe Post or Woj) remarked some contender will find it is short a 4 and will have to trade with either Orlando or the Knicks who both have a bunch of them. Seriously.

BobN, thanks for the news. I hope we get something good if it happens.

Some podcast I listened to yesterday (Lowe Post or Woj) remarked some contender will find it is short a 4 and will have to trade with either Orlando or the Knicks who both have a bunch of them. Seriously.

@154 – Yeah, but that would be after Dec 15th the day that signed free agents can be traded.

One might call the stockpiling a strategy. What are Portis or Gibson worth to a contender ? A 1st rounder? Where’s that 1st round pick going to be? Let’s do a little exercise. Who would you want to get back in such a trade? Here’s a list of 20 players:

Kyle Lowry, , Andrei Kirilenko, Serge Ibaka, Tayshaun Prince, Gerald Wallace, Rajon Rondo, Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Darren Collison, Jeff Foster, Ryan Anderson, Jared Dudley, Kenneth Faried, Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, Jarrett Jack, Morris Peterson, Clint Capela, Kenny Thomas, Mason Plumlee

There was discussion about a 24th overall pick. I selected the top-20 players drafted 20-25 in the past 20 years listed, in descending order, by win share. That’s 100 players. This is the cream of that crop.

In the past 20 years, the Knicks drafted Wilson Chandler, Tim Hardaway and Donnell Harvey in that range. Some decent pieces but does “meh” sound right?

If you think you have a feather in your cap about Jones, Bob (and you do), I have a good friend who I watched the game with yesterday who went a few steps further than you. He’s a Duke grad who was pining for Daniel Jones to be a Giant all last year and spent the summer swearing up and down that we would all love this kid. He drinks for free these days.

Side note, as you always bring up Kiper as an anti-Jones voice:

Yesterday my friend mentioned to me that Mel Kiper had it right, so I googled Daniel Jones Mel Kiper and it seems like actually Kiper was a defender of the pick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sybo-7SKndM

(It’s never good when you hear your argument coming out of Stephen A Smith’s mouth.)

some 18 year old role player that will be peaking in the 2028/29 or 29/30 season.

Says the guy who thinks the folks who drafted an 18yo Ntilikina were possessed of great basketball minds.

The important point is that we need to think strategically and geometrically. We should draft a 22yo role player who will peak in 2022/23. I can’t say who specifically because I’m not privy to all the deep franchise goings on, but there’s certainly no one like that on the Knicks right now!

Press conference time on msg!

I read an article or a blogpost where a guy was explaining a method for valuing individual defense he’d developed and at the end of it his formula said Tim Hardaway Jr was one of the most valuable defensive players in the NBA.

It just seemed like, from the first second, Mills was looking for any type of distraction from the “why didn’t any big names sign with you?” question.

I’m with you about that. How do you pay max money for a broken product?

I read an article or a blogpost where a guy was explaining a method for valuing individual defense he’d developed and at the end of it his formula said Tim Hardaway Jr was one of the most valuable defensive players in the NBA.

i remember one time i was wasted and watching a knick game – for like half a second i thought to myself that TH2 was playing good defense…

in that case my method was weed and beer…

If you think you have a feather in your cap about Jones, Bob (and you do), I have a good friend who I watched the game with yesterday who went a few steps further than you.

Like I said… I never saw the guy play and had no opinion until his first exhibition game. My main objection was people with little understanding making absolute comments. Which is rampant among “knowledgable NY fans” (such bullshit) and media blowhards.

The hate for Gettleman is completely irrational IMO. Anyone take a minute to look at his record ? He was a scout for the Bills when they accumulated the talent to play 4 Super Bowls, was a scout for Denver’s 1997 Super bowl team and was the Giant’s pro personnel director for 12 years and two superbowls. He has seen the accumulation of talent for 8 super bowl teams close up.

He was then GM of the Panthers and their record in his 5 season was a terrific 51-28-1 with a super bowl trip.

He made a great decision to dump Landon Collins, and traded Odell and the incredibly overpaid Olivier Vernon for Peppers, Zeitler, Ximines and Dexter Lawrence.

He then had the temerity to find a guy he loved as a franchise QB and picked him….. why all the hate???

Anyone who saw the 2 QB’s on the field have a pretty good Idea who the better player is now and forever.

Hopefully we’ll have some interesting Knick stuff to talk about soon….

The hate for Gettleman is completely irrational IMO.

cuz, when he speaks he sounds like a dick…until the giants start winning consistently and maybe make the playoffs – it’s gonna be hard to look past that…

Anyone who saw the 2 QB’s on the field have a pretty good Idea who the better player is now and forever.

i’ll be honest, draft night i was kind of hoping we’d pick haskins (if we passed on the kid allen from kentucky)…glad we got jones now…the giants have been pretty unwatchable for years (even with obj and barkley) – much more interesting a team now that we’re moving forward and developing a young qb…

haven’t taken the time to dig in to the game stats, but, seems like their defense may be coming together some…winnable game against the vikings…keenum loves to share the ball with the defense…

I really do find it hard to be too upset with Mills and Perry (the combo, not pre-Perry Mills).
They took a huge swing and it came up snake eyes. If Durant doesn’t tear his Achilles, it’s pretty likely to me that Kyrie and a healthy KD are doing a press conference in Westchester today rather than one in Brooklyn last week. All the moves — the Noah stretch, KP trade, etc etc would look perfectly fine.

They obviously struck out big, and are doing their best. I obviously wish they hadn’t signed all these guys and instead either kept some cap space and roster spots in reserve to facilitate trades during the season or (preferably) have taken on Iguodala or whoever for assets, but it’s not a total given yet that all these dudes won’t turn into trade assets as the year goes on. If the west is really wide open this year, I can very much imagine a team like Portland giving up a protected 1st round pick for Marcus Morris (ie. for Bazemore or some such trade) – they have 3 dudes that all are best off at center that probably can’t survive on the floor in the playoffs (Nurkic, Whiteside, Zach Collins) playing PF.

Mills is taking a lot of heat for his comments about purposely not pursuing max players. I don’t understand that.

He drew attention to it when he shouldn’t have. Maybe he’s on some kind of “trust me” tour? It seemed clear what happened. Why spin a story? What he did was feed a woe-is-me mentality.

I don’t care that much what Mills ands Perry say at this point. Fizdale too. We are what we are right now. Talk is cheap. Let’s see if they’re ready to play next Monday.

quiet media day here on kb

In my defense, his stats were not good. Ever. He wasn’t even recruited to play college. Gettelman admitted he fell in love with him based on one drive in an exhibition game. That just seemed like a terrible thought process to me. It’s basically the Kevin Knox 3-on-3 thing.

His gut was right, though. Maybe it will work out for Kevin Knox, too.

Small news announced today by the Knicks: Dotson is out for the entire preseason, Bullock will be re-evaluated in November.

What’s wrong with Dotson?

@190,

Dotson isn’t a needle mover and probably has no chance of becoming one. He’s a 36.8% shooter from deep with a TS% of .526, and his defense is probably closer to average than okay. There’s no reason to give him minutes over younger guys or older and better guys to me.

Is it me or is Berman today “going rogue” on his MSG benefactors?

https://nypost.com/2019/09/28/the-growing-knicks-whispers-that-could-spell-doom/

Z-man
September 30, 2019 at 4:01 pm
I can’t help but feel optimistic today.

lmao it never ends. you’re the Charlie Brown of Knicks fans.

That’s really bad news for Dotson. Missing the preseason and not having an off-season because of the surgery is a real problem from him. The team is deep (deep in mediocrity but deep) and health is the critical. An injured player does not help the team win. He’ll be very behind others who used the off-season to get better. Knox looks ripped. DSJr worked his butt off. There are a lot of healthy, hungry players and the Knicks #1 pick RJ plays his position, coach loves him some Trier and veteran FA Wayne Ellington is on the team. Doston might find himself as #4 on the 3-deep SG depth chart.

Sad thing is, even healthy, I probably have Dotson at the end of the depth chart. For awhile he looked like he could make the small jump to average, but he’s been stagnant the last few years. We have too many young wings that should get burn over him.

I kept thinking he’d be a rotation player, too.

@196 lol better to be CB than Lucy.

Alas, poor Dot. I knew him…

Of course, this being the Knicks how likely is it they actually extend a draft pick beyond his rookie contract?

Of course, this being the Knicks, when they do finally extend a draft pick beyond his rookie contract, it will probably be for one of the worst basketball players in NBA history, so there’s that.

Sounds like the worst possible news for Frank, actually. He needs to play with one of those guys, not compete against them.

The best guy for Frank to play with would be the idea of RJ Barrett – ie. a playmaking wing. If you play him with Payton or DSJ you’ll end up crossmatching a ton on defense with Frank presumably guarding the point of attack and hiding Payton or DSJ on the least threatening backcourt player. Payton is a good defender, I guess, but he’s still pretty small – 6’2.5″. You could have Payton guard the PG and put Frank on the most threatening wing, but IMHO if Frank is going to play, you want him on the ball (against the PG in most situations but in general on the primary ballhandler).

I honestly think the best role for Frank for this season is to win the backup PG role – get 15 minutes there and another 5-6 minutes playing with one of the other PGs. But it’s all predicated on him not being one of the 5-10 worst offensive players in the league.

re: Perry deflecting on Frank’s option — I’m not sure I would read too much into that. Short of the Noah expulsion, Perry seems to place a lot of emphasis on keeping options open and preparing for all eventualities. There’s really no reason for him to say they are definitely picking up his option, even if that’s the intention, if for no other reason to make Frank as hungry as possible this training camp.