(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 8:05:00 PM)
LOS ANGELES – Russell Westbrook is biased on the subject, but the OKC superstar believes the size of the market is not a factor for free agents.
“I don’t believe in small markets,” Westbrook said. “The world we live in, social media, wherever you’re at, if you’re doing the things you’re supposed…
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 8:10:00 AM)
The rapid descent of the Knicks into one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, if not the worst, has created a heightened longing for Kristaps Porzingis.
“I’ll tell you what, we have a monster waiting in the wings,” David Fizdale said recently just minutes after another loss, selling hope…
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 4:56:26 PM)
The Knicks have treated the re-signing of Kristaps Porzingis as inevitable, given his pending restricted free agency, but the idea that Porzingis will have no leverage in the process is “bogus,” according to Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News, who points out that star players can “maneuver themselves out of undesirable situations” even […]
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 9:37:21 AM)
Following the Knicks‘ eighth consecutive loss on Tuesday, Enes Kanter told reporters, including Marc Berman of The New York Post, that he met with general manager Scott Perry earlier in the week. During that meeting, Kanter expressed frustration with the Knicks’ losing and his own diminishing role, but didn’t ask to be traded, as Berman […]
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 4:56:26 PM)
The Knicks have treated the re-signing of Kristaps Porzingis as inevitable, given his pending restricted free agency, but the idea that Porzingis will have no leverage in the process is “bogus,” according to Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News, who points out that star players can “maneuver themselves out of undesirable situations” even […]
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 9:37:21 AM)
Following the Knicks‘ eighth consecutive loss on Tuesday, Enes Kanter told reporters, including Marc Berman of The New York Post, that he met with general manager Scott Perry earlier in the week. During that meeting, Kanter expressed frustration with the Knicks’ losing and his own diminishing role, but didn’t ask to be traded, as Berman […]
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 4:56:26 PM)
The Knicks have treated the re-signing of Kristaps Porzingis as inevitable, given his pending restricted free agency, but the idea that Porzingis will have no leverage in the process is “bogus,” according to Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News, who points out that star players can “maneuver themselves out of undesirable situations” even […]
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 9:37:21 AM)
Following the Knicks‘ eighth consecutive loss on Tuesday, Enes Kanter told reporters, including Marc Berman of The New York Post, that he met with general manager Scott Perry earlier in the week. During that meeting, Kanter expressed frustration with the Knicks’ losing and his own diminishing role, but didn’t ask to be traded, as Berman […]
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 3:44:01 PM)
While Enes Kanter is back in the starting lineup and averaging rouhgly five more minutes per game than his career average, it would still make sense for the Knicks to explore a potential trade.
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 9:07:57 AM)
Knicks center Enes Kanter said he met with general manager Scott Perry to express his frustration, but he didn’t request a trade.
[NYTimes] Nets Survive Huge Game by Anthony Davis to Beat Pelicans (Thursday, January 03, 2019 3:48:23 AM)
Davis had 34 points and 26 rebounds, and New Orleans made a late push, but the Nets held on to win at home thanks to a great game by D’Angelo Russell.
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 5:21:16 PM)
LOS ANGELES — Two weeks ago, Knicks coach David Fizdale was asked if he would start emphasizing players in the rotation who he knew would be returning next season. “Not yet,’’ Fizdale said. The new year is here and it appears Fizdale is at that point — with the Knicks’ record at 9-29, the second-worst…
(Wednesday, January 02, 2019 11:21:57 AM)
DENVER — In a recent Knicks’ player-developmental meeting among team brass, coaches and trainers, the issue of Kevin Knox’s struggles finishing around the basket arose. One Knicks strength-and-conditioning coach told the group that expecting the 19-year-old, 6-foot-9, 216-pounder to master the rugged skill of finishing through contact is unrealistic for this season. Knox’s body core…
119 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2019.01.03)”
From the “4 Enes Kanter Trades That Could Work” article, “Enes Kanter for Ian Mahinmi and Kelly Oubre Jr.” Ooph, that’s embarrassing.
Oh, totally, Lebron went to Los Angeles because he loved Luke Walton as a coach, not because it was Los Angeles. That checks out, Russ.
While I think Bondy’s article is mostly specu-trolling, it IS fair to note that the Knicks are in a bad spot for trying to add any significant injury protections for Porzingis, as I would be willing to bet he CAN get a max offer without significant injury protections from another team and then the Knicks would just have to match that .
So I think that they are going to be “stuck” signing him to a flat out max deal, which is why I really think that they should shop him around for a big trade haul, as he’s likely never going to have as much trade value as he does right now.
I couldn’t agree more.
From the “4 Enes Kanter Trades That Could Work” article, “Enes Kanter for Ian Mahinmi and Kelly Oubre Jr.” Ooph, that’s embarrassing.
what’s more embarrassing is that it may be the deal that made the most sense on the list, despite its literal impossibility.
take on $12.5 million of 2020 miles plumlee for the expiring contract of 25 year old justin anderson?
take on $17 million of 2020 biyombo for a shitty 2nd (presumably okc)?
give away frank and take on $27 million for one year of 30 yr old whiteside for absolutely no fucking reason?
Big risk for the Knicks – what if he is damaged goods? Not to mention his pre-injury production was pretty mediocre.
Knicks would be maxing out an injury-prone player who has never produced at the star, let alone superstar, level.
The Knicks are in the catbird seat as far as Porzingis is concerned:
They have the best medical data on him currently…. they watch him daily working out had test him periodically. When they said he would be “reevaluated” in mid February, that says he can’t possibly play before April 1st at the earliest and there is no guarantee he’ll be cleared to practice Feb 15th.
No team is giving him a long 153M contract without liberal protections and if they are included in a contract the Knicks can match and do what they want with him locked up for 4 more years.
The only possible team that might take a flyer on him w/o protections would be NO who is desperate to keep AD.
Since the Knicks can offer more money than other teams, it seems likely they could just structure guarantees such that basically he gets about the same money as he could in an offer sheet from another team.
For instance the max the Knicks can offer KP this offseason = 5 years / $157MM
The max any other team can offer KP this offseason in an offer sheet = something like 4 years $130MM
So the Knicks could say ok, 5 years, $157MM but if you have x kind of injury causing you to miss y games in years 4 or 5 then only $140MM is guaranteed, or something like that.
If we’re truly worried about KP’s injury risk, then maybe it’d actually be better for the Knicks to match a fully guaranteed 4 year max offer sheet, because it’d be shorter for less guaranteed money than if he signed a max bird extension.
Either way, I think it would take a godfather offer for me to consider trading KP. It is true that he is injury prone, but in a 20+ game stretch as “the man” last year he was basically a bona fide MVP candidate, all while playing in about as unfriendly an offense as could exist for him — “here you go Mr. “not quite physically developed player” — go post up 20 times a game with no off-ball movement and create something”. It wasn’t until he “felt a pop” in his knee in mid Dec that he started to trail off, and IMHO it is clear he had a partial ACL tear that game that affected his play going forward. If he looks anything like himself either in real games or in practice, how could you give that up? An actual 2 way modern NBA player who has already produced at an MVP level (albeit for only 1/4 of a season)?
By godfather I mean like I would do KP + a heavily protected 1st round pick for Anthony Davis. Or for multiple unprotected 1st round picks from a badly run team.
A 23 year old player who already made the all-star team and whose game and role would benefit from physical maturation, and some people think he won’t get the max or close to it? There could be caveats in the contract the way there were with Embiid, but otherwise, the Knicks should be happy to pay him the max or close to it.
Why is that four trades articles still up on the SNY site? What a friggin joke.
If history is any indicator, Knicks will max Porzingis out and he will be injured within six months of signing the contract. He might no even get injured, just be the mediocre self that we have witnessed.
I’d say, try to get the most from him (in terms of draft picks and/or prospects) if the option ever materializes.
I still think Kyrie is a possibility for NYK. The Celtic core doesn’t look that special this year and he would love to play here with KP and MitchRob. Throw in a high pick, resigned Vonleh, and a few more shooters, and that’s a decent start.
Honestly, any All-Star nod means nothing in terms of actual productivity.
Pretty clear to whom? This is a pretty big statement with zero factual to support it… you are saying a injury vs Brooklyn which caused him to miss 2 whole games and then he played 25 after that and tore his ACL 7 weeks later when he was crosschecked in mid air by Giannis and landed sideways was actually caused by a misdiagnosed ACL partial tear which was misread on an MRI?
I’m gonna need a citation on that one.
And if you remember correctly he wet the bed the last 50 games of the prior season…..
Agreed, but it still enhances the market for a player and the salary teams are willing to pay.
Hardaway/Hezonja/pordingus for Horford/Rozier and 2 first rounders, who says no?? Probably both teams…
The KP max risk is mitigated imho because these are the options:
1. He’s the star we hope he is and is worth the max. Great.
2. He’s injured frequently. If this is the case the rebuild continues and we get high draft picks because the rest of the roster is garbage, or very young, and no star is coming to play here without a healthy KP. Not a complete disaster, although the contract is for 5 years and by then you want to be built already.
3. He’s healthy but is not a deserving all star, and keeps having mediocre or a bit over it production while being perceived as a star. Crap, but not lethal as he’s still a good player and an attraction to other stars.
So I’d try to limit the contract to 4 years, and get as many health protections as I can, but I think you have to max him because the potential for a top 10 or top 15 player is there. Not a certainty by any means, but there.
Same apologism, different players.
Yeah, you can really only get the injury protections when you are negotiating an extension. Once he hits the market, you don’t have the leverage.
But the scenario you laid out is its own injury protection. Another team can only offer him a max of 4 years, $117mm. That’s *much* more palatable than the 5 years, $157mm we might offer him for the sole purpose of coddling him.
The one thing Porzingis can do that would kill us is sign an offer sheet on day 1 because that blows up our plan to leverage his cap hold to sign a free agent. It would selfish, spiteful, and bad for his long-term success. But I wouldn’t put it past him. We might have to promise to give him the megamax just to avoid him doing this.
I suggested the Biyimbo trade last night! The problem is that I think they’d rather keep him – see last nights minutes with Zeller injured. We could do Kanter for Mahinmi straight up for a second as well, but we could also do Kanter plus Lance for Wall. That seems more Knicksy. And why are there two trades in there that have the Knicks giving a sweetner to dump a guy who’s leaving this summer?
The issue here for me is that Knickerblogger frequently says stuff like ‘we should have traded Lee’ or ‘there are always teams looking to clear cap space, of course we can deal Kanter’. There are only 29 other teams, we have limited options and there isnt always a good trade there. Paying 18 million and a roster spot next year for a mid to late second round pick is too much. Until someone suggests a real trade for Kanter that has reasonable value I’m going to assume no such trade exists.
A sign and trade is so tempting (this year’s first please!) but we’re obviously giving KP the max for reasons of the fans and Pills/Merry keeping their jobs.
I look forward to competing with the Suns and Wizards for “Worst Team with a Max Player” as we hover in the mid-lottery for the next five years, then.
We’ve discussed this many times, but the bottom line is: Porzingis has never been a max player, and he’s coming off a major injury. Under no circumstances is he deserving or should receive a max offer, much less the mega max or any other extra incentive. Max players are max players because they do it consistently. You can find 20 game stretches that justify every bad contract in the game, and those stretches are precisely the reason those terrible contracts were signed, because someone chose to believe them as proof of production over other indicators.
If the Knicks re-sign him at the max it is a mistake, simply put. He could improve and be worthy of it, which would be awesome, but it doesn’t change the fact that the decision making was flawed in the first place.
I do think he’s signing a max with the Knicks and I don’t think it’s a disaster, there is reason to believe he could worth it one day and there’s peripheral aspects that will lead Mills and Perry into believing they need to do it. That doesn’t mean I think it’s a good idea.
Yes I forgot that we already have a near max $ player in Enes Kanter who is a top 20 player in the NBA this year by Wins Produced at 5.6… tied with Steph Curry and easily outpacing Lebron. And who was the 6th best player in the entire league by Wins Produced last season?! Enes Kanter! Amazing that teams are not falling over themselves to trade for Enes.
This is really not an issue. There’s a moratorium on actual offer sheets and contracts until July 6 if I remember correctly, and then there is a 48h period during which the team can decide whether or not to match. So we would just need FA clarity by July 8 regardless of when KP or any RFA comes to terms with a team on an offer sheet.
This no way a defense of offering Porzingis the max, BUT…
I think Porzingis as your 3rd best player at $17mm AAV is fair. That’s what he’ll count against the cap this year. So for one year only, we have the opportunity to build a team around him at his fair market value.
If we pull that off and he ends up making $30mm, it’s still dumb but it won’t kill us if we were able to leverage his cap hold this summer.
The plan has to be:
– get a max free agent to commit
– package the pick (if it isn’t Zion) with Hardaway and whatever it takes for a 2nd star
– bring Porzingis back into the fold as your 3rd guy
– kick Mudiay to the curb
If we can pull off that plan, I will not be as mad about Porzingis being overpaid.
bob – I laid out my reasoning about this all the way back in June — see posts 1 and 6 on this thread:
http://knickerblogger.net/knicks-morning-news-2018-06-14/
Fact is (and somehow no one has called the Knicks medical staff out on it) – he felt a pop and sharp pain in his knee in mid Dec 2017. They were concerned enough to hold him out 2 games, then proceeded to have him play heavy minutes after that – a period during which he was noticeably less effective than before that “pop and sharp pain”. He had to miss another game against GS in January for the same left knee. Then he tore it in early Feb. And through it all, no MRI until after the Giannis play despite this guy being your franchise player.
I’m not an orthopedist but this seems to be seriously suboptimal care.
Is he even that tradeable? Other teams will have the same concerns we do – durability, whether he’ll reach full potential, whether some other team comes in the summer with an incentive-laden offer sheet. He can threaten to play the QO if it’s a team he doesn’t like. I’m not sure we’d get great offers. s&T in the summer maybe, but if he signs an offer sheet we can’t do that and if we match he gets a one year no-trade clause so we have no leverage.
The salary on the offer sheet replaces the player’s cap hold immediately, but that’s a good point about the moratorium. If the Knicks got a commitment from a max free agent during the moratorium, they could work to avoid this. That’s a lot of balls to juggle in a short time, though. As soon as the moratorium is lifted it’s a real risk.
https://www.postingandtoasting.com/2019/1/3/18163394/p-t-video-breakdown-how-enes-kanter-hurts-the-knicks-on-defense-and-offense
Did anybody get a chance to read this great article destroying Enes Kanter’s oncourt garbage on both sides of the ball? Makes me feel justified in my immense loathing of his play this year. He’s a toxic stat-padder that should be released immediately.
And I think Porzingis ultimately takes less than a max contract. He’s played some big games and had good numbers as a scorer, and is likely already an elite defender. But he tore his knee and wouldn’t have played a game since he tore the ACL, so I think he takes a 4 year deal similar to the ones Giannis, Whiteside, and Oladipo signed, which puts him back on the market at age 27 or 28 depending on if he gets an option on the 4th year. There’s no way he gets $30M AAV. He played like a franchise guy for like 6 weeks, then had knee trouble which led to an eventual tear and missed his entire fourth season? Nobody, including the Knicks, will offer him a max contract. I’m pretty confident lolKnicks doesn’t apply here.
Why are you talking about Wins Produced? And what does the expiring Kanter contract have to do with a Porzingis max contract that will extend through 2024?
lol sorry I couldn’t resist.
Carry on
We all have to worry about KP’s knees. If all goes well and he stays healthy, he’s worth a max deal. That is a risk the Knicks must take. They simply cannot afford to let him go as a free agent. They have control and shouldn’t play any games with that. He’ll be entering the prime of his career now and will be joined by a top-5 pick. Hopefully a top-1 🙂
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/timberwolves-andrew-wiggins-says-hes-worth-nothing-less-than-a-max-contract/
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/10/11/andrew-wiggins-signs-timberwolves-contract-extension-five-years-148-million
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/andrew-wiggins/
It can happen here, too.
I think some of you guys are underrating the foolishness of some NBA franchises. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a team gives him a max offer.
And feet, and ankles, and everything else that can go wrong in a guy that tall. He’s a big injury risk, unless he turns into the second coming of Dirk and develops a reliable, 90th percentile outside shot. He does not have that right now. His form looks great, but .520 TS% ain’t gonna cut it in today’s NBA.
Are we talking about Porzingis in 2017-18, or Porzingis as you expect him to develop by 2022? Right now, he’s not even close to a max contract. Max guys are the guys that you get extreme surplus value out of: LeBron, Steph, Durant, AD, Jokic, Harden, MVP-year Russ, Healthy (lol) Chris Paul. Porzingis is a max player in the vein of Devin Booker, only he’s worse on offense and much better on defense. This is not a compliment.
There’s an option other than “sign him to a max” and “let him walk in free agency.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment
“In for a penny, in for a pound.”
There were 195 players that played >1500 minutes last year. Porzingis ranked 133rd in BPM. Do you think his prime is as one of the 31 players who had a >3 BPM? Or one of the 15 with a >5 BPM? Or 6 with >7? Imagine the kind of leap he’ll have to make after ACL surgery to justify that contract.
Addendum: also rookie-scale guys give surplus value. It’s the NBA’s middle class that *rarely* justifies its contracts.
Giving KP a max would be a mistake in a vacuum, but it’s likely that we have a binary choice: give him a max, or let him walk for nothing.
Between those two, I’d prefer to give him a max. Unless things go seriously wrong with his health I think he’ll maintain some trade value, and as long as we don’t do anything stupid between now and 2021 we’ll still have enough space for a 10+ year max at that point. So the core would be whoever sticks between KP/Knox/MitchRob/Frank/Trier/Dotson/Vonleh + 2 hopefully high lottery picks + a max player. Not ideal, but with enough luck and good drafting it could be a worthwhile team.
It’s definitely a shitty situation but KP’s max doesn’t have to be a franchise killer if we do everything else correctly (yeah, I know).
Ok, we all agree that as of last year, Porzingis was not worth a max. Then he got injured, so presumably he should be worth less. So we are all in agreement he isn’t worth the max as it stands? Great!
Ok, so we all agree that another team is DEFINITELY going to offer him the max if we don’t, right? And one of those teams will likely be Brooklyn. And it’s pretty universal out there in the mainstream culture that KP pre-injury was worth the max.
It is very unlikely that Perry doesn’t (a) offer the max, or (b) match another team’s offer. There’s no way they let him walk. He is getting the max, the question is 4 or 5 years. Other teams just won’t let us offer a sub-max.
I am only hoping they include a good injury clause, because then it’s actually a decent signing.
@33 the most important difference there is Wiggins always plays 82 games. You can lie to yourself about a guy’s potential if he’s always healthy, but it’s hard to lie to yourself about a guy’s potential and his health if he just tore his ACL. He won’t see max money unless Sean Marks offers him a max just so we have to sign him to it. The goal should be to come to an agreement with KP before Sean Marks screws us over.
And Bol Bol is out for the season. RJ Barrett is officially a lock to go #2.
Comparing Wiggins to KP is not a fair comparison at all.
Even if you believe KP will never improve, he’s been consistently better than Wiggins no matter what statistical measure you use — BPM, WS/48, RPM etc.
Kp’s main weaknesses are efficiency on offense, rebounding, and health. But he is a genuinely great shooter for PF/C, is very skilled in the post (and so defending him in a PNR/PNP setting is much more difficult), and is an impact defender no matter what measure you look at. Efficiency on offense should be something that improves (ie. stop posting up 25 times per game and taking long 2’s – thanks Phil). Rebounding will probably never improve significantly. Health is a wild card.
Wiggns’s main weaknesses are everything.
Look – one can easily imagine Kp averaging (per-36) 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks — I can imagine it because he literally did it last year. The list of players who have done these things is short, and consists of Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Shaq, Anthony Davis, Ewing, McAdoo, Olajuwon, Robert Parish, and David Robinson. Of all those, precisely zero of them is the shooter KP is, and in the “modern NBA”, having a big who can spread the floor is so obviously valuable (I mean just look at how much better the offense looks with Kornet than with Kanter!). I’m obviously not saying that KP will be as impactful as these guys (especially because he doesn’t end possessions well by grabbing the defensive board), but why on earth would you consider trading someone who has the potential of being in that rarefied air?
UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Bol Bol’s body already made him an extremely high risk prospect in my eyes. Missing a big chunk of time with a foot injury confirms my worst fears. I’d be very, very hesitant to spend a top-5 pick on him. The top of the draft gets even shallower. We’re going to have a lot riding on ping pong balls come lottery day.
Still holding onto RJ Barrett as my #2 prospect. ACC play will tell us a lot about him. Nassir Little, Kevin Porter Jr, and Ja Morant all look good, too.
Which teams (besides the Knicks) will even be able to offer a max this summer? And from that group of teams, which ones would rather have KD, Kyrie, or Kawhi cause I feel like most teams will want those 3 first before the go with KP. Then you’ll have teams who may want to save the cap space in case AD opens up. Also there’s Kemba out there.
I think the chances are low that another team offers a max to KP with zero injury clauses in the contract. He hasn’t played in almost a year and there’s a really good chance he won’t play at all this year at the rate its going. Is a team besides The Knicks really going to take the risk of giving him a max contract with zero injury clauses for a 7’3″ guy who hasn’t played in a year just based of either screwing over The Knicks or KP’s potential?
I just don’t see it happening.
I do see a scenario where we bid against ourselves and give him the absolute max with zero injury clauses cause we’re the Knicks but hopefully Perry is savvy enough to handle the negotiations with KP well and get a deal that is doable for both sides.
co-sign noblefacehumper –
giving him a max now may not be great present-day value but it’s also not as crippling as a supermax John Wall contract or even a 10+ year max like a declining Chris Paul.
short of an injury issue, even if KP never improves from this point on, he can still probably be the Robin to a true max player – play impactful defense, open up the offense by dragging bigs out of the paint, and punish switches in the post.
Even with no improvement he may never give true surplus value (as compared to Lebron or Curry or Harden etc) but as humper said, he will always have trade value.
But then what if Fizdale actually convinces him to stop shooting 40+% of his FGA from 10-23 feet? Just moving his shot chart a little would go a long way in terms of his efficiency.
To be honest I don’t really see any teams giving KP an offer sheet – and certainly not early in FA. RFAs always get the late offers because teams with cap space don’t want to tie up their cap space even for the 48h waiting period. Seriously, does Sean Marks really think the Knicks won’t match a 4 year 120something million dollar contract with a trade kicker and a 4th year player option? Of course the Knicks would match it, and a portion of the fan base would be happier to have him for a shorter/less$ contract (represented here!) precisely because of the long-term injury concerns.
Everyone already knows my opinion on KP.
He’s not as productive as his reputation, but he’s more productive than boxscore metrics suggest.
His defense and ability to space the floor with 3 point shooting that drags big men away from their job rebounding and protecting the paint is not adequately reflected. I also think he ALREADY HAS the skillset to be more efficient without any actual improvement in his shot or moves because he’s been used poorly so far. We also knew coming in that his strength was an issue and it was probably going to take him longer to develop than some of the other young big men.
I am higher on his potential than many here, but I agree the injury and stamina risk are part of the equation. If we can protect ourselves from a debacle in the contract we should. I see no possibility they are going to trade him. Phil may or may not have actually considered it, but the haul he wanted was huge. If he couldn’t get what he wanted then, they aren’t going to get it now after the ACL.
I mean, Otto Porter, who has shown more than Zingis thus far, signed a max deal. He has actually improved, and his contract is STILL pretty onerous. Can the Wiz get any significant returns for him? Maybe an expiring and a late 1st if they’re lucky. Can you build a team around him? Heck no.
Now compare that to Porginzis and his injury. Does a max make any sense? Keep in mind, we now have another guy that blocks a lot of shots, and KP’s rebounding/average shooting won’t be missed.
It’s definitely not binary. There are 4 choices.
1. Give him a max.
2. Let him walk for nothing.
3. Let the market determine his value and match whatever offer sheet he accepts (the minimum savings on this ~$40mm in guaranteed salary and one less year of commitment; it could be much more if that market is smart this year.)
4. Trade him
A variation of #3 is to offer him a non max and let him try to beat it.
I like Porzingis, even though he’s overrated. I don’t want to give up on him. I would choose option 3. The only reason not to do that is because you’re afraid of hurting his feelings, and that’s not a reason at all.
I don’t know, a 7-3 dude who shoots 39.5% from 3 and good rim protection? I’m pretty sure almost any team would offer him the 4 year deal.
It’s trade him, max him, or match him. That’s it.
If Sean Marks wants to pay 30MM per to Porzingis, let him. That’s one less team to worry about.
I just think the fact that he’s been out with an injury for an entire NBA season will make most teams pause before the give him a max without injury considerations thrown in. To be clear, I’m not saying that there won’t be a team trying to get him, just that I don’t think that team would throw him an offer that is more than ours and has zero injury protections. So I think we’re probably going to be ok if we want to sign him to a max with injury protections.
Porter has been pretty shitty this year. In 2017 he had a net rating of +21 due to his incredible 3PT shooting and committing only 44 turnovers in 2605 minutes. That’s the lowest TOV% rate by a player in >2000 MP in a single season by a country mile (Al Jefferson 2011-12 is #2 at 5.2% and there are just 4 player seasons under 6.0% ).
He’s regressed quite a bit — not sure if it’s him or his awful team — but that contract looked just fine until this season. I would be amazed if Porzingis ever has a season as productive and win-producing as Porter’s 2017 or 2018 seasons.
In order to justify that contract, he’ll need at average 10-11 Win Shares. No thanks.
Is there anyone better than Ja after Zion? How biblical.
Porter is not worth anywhere near the contract they gave him. He’s a terrific complimentary player that can add a lot of value to a team that already has two legitimate scoring stars (which Washington does not), but you aren’t going to build a team around Otto Porter. If you started with him at the max, you’d be screwed.
God help me, but I’m on the side of the KP optimists on this. I think health is the one big issue; as Frank mentioned, there WAS a story about his knee popping, and then his play was diminished. If the work he had been doing and will need to continue to do strengthens his base, I believe he’s capable of star play for 35 minutes per game. I don’t think you’ll get a lot of surplus value, but KP is a two-way player, and on that basis, worth a max.
I’d hope for less, of course. 4 years, injury protections, etc. But I don’t think it’s the crippling move many here portray it as.
I should also say I don’t really like him. He strikes me as a petulant punk. There are lots of players I’d rather have. So it isn’t fanboi talk…just realism about the kind of contract it will likely take, and a valuation that says it would probably work out ok.
That’s a pretty low bar for handing out a max contract.
If a team were looking to sign KP and make the Knicks wince at the contract, they could offer a 2+1 at Max money with a 15% trade kicker. If KP comes back this season and shows that he is healthy, I would much rather have him for 5 years at the 25% max than 2 years (with KP holding an option on year 3) at the 25% max — which would make him at least a 30% max player in years 3, 4 and 5 (and possibly a 35% max player).
Do not let the word “max” confuse you. KP’s next contract will not be the equivalent of the John Wall gamble. It is his third contract where he will get into that stratosphere (if he is a top 25 player).
“I don’t think that I have a $20 bill, but I have a pair of fives, and on that basis, I have twenty dollars.”
Here are the quotes from the horses mouth….. no mention of a “pop”. Having torn a hamstring when I was 24 and hearing an audible “pop” there is a difference. He hurt it, re-aggravated it returning to the game and missed 2 games and returned to play another 7 weeks. Do you think he tore his ACL (even partially) on this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_0FIN1j8jI
OR this:
http://www.nba…
I miss Herring
Knox is EC rookie of the month. His TS% has improved every month. He’s probably playing too many minutes, but at the very least I think we’re getting past the possibility that he will be a bust.
Willie Hernangomez was also EC rookie of the month. I am not as sanguine on Knox being out of the woods. He may turn out to be a superstar. He may turn out to be a starter. He may turn out to be a rotation player. Any of those would be good value for the 9th pick.
He also may fail to develop on defense, or be too “low motor” to develop on offense, or get injured. Any of those would qualify as a “bust.”
Someone will offer KP a 4 year max. No way that doesn’t happen. It’s stupid, but it is what it is. He’ll probably get multiple offers.
When that happens, is there a way we can trade him? Not up on the arcane rules.
Once he signs the offer sheet and you match, you can’t trade the player until January 15th. In addition, you have to wait a year if you want to trade the player to the team that got him to sign the offer sheet (which actually has happened in the past, with the Blazers and the Nets and Allen Crabbe).
I’m sorry, I forgot that on every blog on the interwebs you have to footnote and source your comments. You know, 40% from 3 on high volume, leading the league in block rate (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/blk_pct_yearly.html), the fact that he had league average efficiency on 31% usage in his third season, a good and steadily increasing free throw rate, etc.
So basically in order to sign and trade KP he needs to be on board with it before offer sheets start coming in.
We’re either going to straight up max him, or we’ll match some crazy deal with several years of player options and and no trade clause and whatever other horseshit. Or he walks for nothing and Merry & Pills get fired.
Congrats to Knox! Any time you can get honored, it’s still a cool thing!
Yes, that’s pretty much it. This is just the situation Perry inherited. It’s not a good one, but it can avoid being a disaster if they just avoid doing dumb things on top of bringing KP back. For instance, let’s say they whiff on all the main free agents, they absolutely cannot then start handing out, like, $8-10 million a year deals to guys like Mudiay, ya know? That would take them out of the running for max cap room in 2021, which is the next best goal if they whiff on all major free agents this year. Just conserve your cap room, or rent it out to other teams until 2021.
Pretty sure Mudiay is getting that 8-10 mil per year contract. This in the post today:
Fizdale has fallen in love with Emmanuel Mudiay and has to develop lottery pick Frank Ntilikina. “Fizdale wanted Mudiay from Day 1,’’ one person familiar with the situation said.
Oh, sure, I’m not saying I’m optimistic about their chances of avoiding doing dumb things like giving Mudiay a $8-10 million contract, but we can at least have hope that Perry won’t do it until he actually does it.
They’re not going to win anything, but at least a Mudiay/Barrett/Knox/KP/MitchRob might be fun to watch? And hey, we’d probably get another high draft pick that way.
The funny thing is that the media has been pushing the “Mudiay is good now!” narrative so much that you can clearly see people (not you, ess-dog, I mean the general Knicks audience that you can see on Twitter or other social media places) slowly go from “well, if he continues to improve, I guess I wouldn’t mind giving him a $5 million a year deal” to “$8-10 million is fine right now” as Mudiay actively plays worse! He’s specifically regressed as the narrative on him has gone up! It’s seriously bonkers.
Bol Bol out for the year with a foot injury. Big men and feet is never a good thing.
@75
Sometimes it feels like Mills uses the media to advance a personal agenda or influence fan expectations.
Eep. Cross Bol Bol off the list I guess. I’m looking for players I like outside of Zion/Ja Morant and I gotta say the pickings are a little slim. There are an awful lot of volume scoring shooting guard type dudes in this draft. The year we tank for reals is the year it’s a one-player draft and one in which the lottery odds are flattened so there’s an 86% of not getting that one player no matter how bad you are.
#DolansRazor
Oh I’m not saying it’s fine, Brian (as I think you’re stating) but that contract does seem inevitable with all of this anointing. It’s oddly similar to the D’Angelo Russell narrative happening in Brooklyn: how he’s become a budding star picked off the scrap heap, except that in reality he’s terrible and getting worse. Maybe it’s a way to gaslight other GMs thereby raising these guys’ trade value?
I think Russell is getting virtually the same edit Mudiay is, which is that they were terrible for so long that now that they’re just normal bad, they look like they’ve become stars.
Man, I can’t believe how shitty Russell turned out to be. He was such a good scorer in college and it just did not translate to the NBA at all.
He’s still only 22, but so far I was wrong on Russell too. I wouldn’t want anything to do with him now. He doesn’t defend well and you’d have to pray he eventually starts scoring more efficiently for him just to be a below average player. lol
It’s like the only thing the press looks at is pointz.
EPHUS! 2019 off to a good start.
It’s funny to me that Porzingis would get max offers even if we pass with his medicals in hand and the most insight into his rehab. You would think that would knock his value down but I guess not.
What he gives Mud is going to be a real test of how good Perry is. Right now it looks like we’re definitely resigning him but going over 4 or 5 a year is bidding against ourselves.
In the same vein, Lonzo Ball was a 40%+ 3PT shooter in college on a non-trivial volume of shots. Unbelievable how bad he’s been.
He at least had that weird-looking shot, so there was a little bit there to make you go, “Hmmmm…” But yeah, his inability to shoot has been a big disappointment, as well. But man, Russell had such a nice-looking shot, he looked like such a complete player and he came to the NBA and has both shot like shit and quickly devolved into a mess on the court overall.
I think the offers will show up before the Knicks signal anything beyond “waiting on KD ect” If I thought KD might come here and liked KP and didn’t want to see the two together I’d make an offer ASAP to prevent the Knicks from having the cap space for it.
And if the Knicks think KP can’t pass physicals then he’s probably not signable or tradable and they should just let him walk.
Some pretty sharp people predicted that Ball was not going to be able shoot at the NBA level. It wasn’t so much the form as it was that NBA caliber defenders were going to make it very difficult for him to get his shot off the same way with that form.
After the early Dec loss to the C’s I wrote this:
“Big week for the tank, we could easily go 5-5 in our next 10. I would prefer 3-7 as a realistic floor, but with the Nets, Hawks, Suns, Cavs and 2x Hornets, that will be a tall order. The good news is, after that, we have a stretch where going 0-10 is very possible. So 5-15 in the next 20, how’s that sound?”
We’re 1-11 since then…now 5-15 would turn out to be disastrous!
Oh man, imagine if they seriously won 4 in a row! This place would be turned upside down. “Max out Mudiay!”
I think Russell has improved a bit this year, he’s still a bad chucker but he’s passing better and shooting 3s at an average rate. The issue is that you just can’t be a combo guard in this league if you literally cannot get to the line at all, unless you’re an insane shooter or passer. He has a 2.3 FTA/36 with 30 usg%!!!!! How is that even possible??!? At some point you gotta assume he’s just lazy, right? There’s no other explanation.
Always great to hear from you, ephus!
Willy won the award in April when he was a month away from being 23. Knox won’t be 20 until August. Considering how widely the pick was (and continues to be) panned here, and the strengthg of this rookie class in general, I think that winning the award is pretty cool and bodes well for him.
@35
Means what it means. If he develops, after he shakes off the rust, into a top-10 player. If he tops out as a perennial All-star, he’s worth a max from the Knicks.
But this is about a team that has rolled the dice already and is all-in on getting KP, a top free agent and a top-5 pick. Nobody here will agree that that’s the best approach, but I think it’s a foregone conclusion. In fact, I’ve got more than a sneaking suspicion that KP has been ready for games for a while but the sooner that he’s activated, the more games the Knicks will win – no good. You don’t think they said to him “Without you in the lineup we’re lucky if we win 20 games. With you we still won’t make the playoffs with this team. Wink. Wink.”
I admit I’m thin slicing. But between this, the dungeon, the state of our offense, the state of our defense, the way we look after time outs, the stupid logic he uses to defend his terrible rotations, the fact that Marc Gasol hated him, and the fact that memphis ran him out in a hurry… wait I’m not thin slicing at all. There is a fair amount of evidence that David Fizdale is a terrible nba coach.
In all seriousness, where would this guy be if Dwayne Wade didn’t like him? Someone tell me something David Fizdale has demonstrated he is good at in his NBA coaching career.
Something along that line is what I feared about him as soon as he started playing. He was such a mature, composed player in college and yet has shown none of that drive in the NBA.
I remember being pretty down on Russell at draft time. I don’t think the board was that high on him, either. No one likes Okafor, but we were mixed in Russell at best.
Of course, everyone was high on KAT. Oh well.
I was super pumped about Russell. He’s been such a disappointment.
Holy shit, the Grizzlies just traded TWO fucking second round picks (plus MarShon Brooks and Wayne Selden) for Justin fucking’ Holiday!
Classic line on Twitter:
I dunno-NBA coaches are almost all insane optimists. They all think they can fix shitty players. Teams need a cold hearted GM.
Justin Holiday on an expiring contract, too… so it’s basically 2 2nds for whatever he can give in terms of impact for the rest of this season.
When even GarPax can fleece you, something is really wrong.
I don’t even know who some of these Spurs are and they’re absolutely pasting the Raptors.
I was trying to argue that people were going way too fast with the idea that the Spurs are dead and that Pop is done… now all of a sudden their role players are all playing better, Aldridge is back in form and Gasol isn’t even back yet.
I’ll trust a Popovich team is missing the playoffs when they get eliminated only.
Are you up for the job?
Pop has DeRozan, Gay and Aldridge as the leaders of a team that ranks 7th in ORtg. The guy can probably squeeze water from a stone, too.
Do note, though, that the quote has Fizdale wanting Mudiay from Day 1, but Mudiay was acquired last year, before Fizdale was the coach, ya know?
Yeah, reports of the death of the Spurs may have been greatly exaggerated.
If the Bulls can get two second rounders for Justin Holiday, what can the Knicks get for the now “fixed” Mudiay!!
Probably nothing…
Bryn Forbes and Derrick White are shooting a combined 15-21 with 8 threes amongst them against the Raptors. Obviously it’s an outlier game, but once again it’s looking like the old “random guards become valuable role players with the Spurs” thing.
The quote is irrelevant. His actions told us he loved mudiay before the quote.
If you’re an NBA coach and you love Mudiay that tells me all I need to know about you.
..loves Mudiay compared to who? Frank? Burke?
Well, it’s a pretty bad quote, though, right? “He wanted Mudiay from Day 1” when Mudiay was here months before he got here, ya know? One thing I will note, though, you and I differ on whether the Knicks decided to not hire Budz (I think it was his call to choose the Bucks over the Knicks because he didn’t want to leave a rebuilding team to go to another rebuilding team where he wouldn’t have any say on personnel, while you think they chose Fizdale over him) and I will say that if you are right, ooph, that would have been a terrible decision (so terrible that I don’t think it’s true, but man…).
Good for Lonnie Walker to score his first NBA points tonight! Impressive return from his injury.
Why would Budz want to come here when he could coach a contender from the get-go? And why hire a marquee free agent coach for a rebuilding team? Didn’t we already make that mistake with D’Antoni?
I really haven’t had any problems with the coaching this year. Fiz is mainly playing young guys and isn’t afraid to bench the vets even though it means more losses. If he does suck, he won’t be around long anyway.
Yeah, good for him, sounds like a good kid!
I agree that I don’t think Budz wanted to come here over Milwaukee, but if he did want to come here, I think it’d be great so long as he understood that they were going to rebuild. D’Antoni would have been fine if his signing went along with a rebuild, but instead, they went the dumb route of trying to win as many games as possible right away with him. That was one of the dumbest things Walsh did in his tenure here. The Knicks winning 29 and 30 games in D’Antoni’s first two seasons was just as bad as them winning 31 and 29 in the last two seasons.
@109 C’mon yo, you don’t think you’re being a bit too harsh? Timing of comments is always relevant.
That said: Developmental coaches tend to want to work with players who have potential. He won’t be the first or last coach to see potential in a high-lottery bust.
I said this last year when I watched the Knicks play here vs the Clips: Mudiay looks the part of the prototypical physical profile you’d want in your PG, and he had little problem getting into the paint. It’s just that he had no clue what to do after that. Is it unreasonable to think a coach could say “hmmmm I bet I can teach him what to do when he gets into the lane”?
JAMES HARDEN MY GOD
One of the most insane game-winners you’ll ever see. Probably even more so than the sort of wild threes you see, in that this was obviously a planned shot by Harden. Like, let’s say that Durant’s shot at the end went in, that would obviously just be luck. He just heaved it up there. Harden, though, that was a typical Harden shot, just with two defenders draped all over him and with seconds left in overtime, down two points. Insanity.
+1, Z-Man. I am really encouraged by Knox, just not ready to say that he is out of the woods yet.