(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 1:20:06 PM)
Former TCU wing Kenrich Williams will take part in a group workout with the Knicks on Wednesday, a league source told SNY.tv.
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 9:15:06 AM)
Knicks president Steve Mills and GM Scott Perry will travel to Chicago on Friday to meet with Missouri freshman forward Michael Porter Jr.
(Wednesday, June 13, 2018 2:30:00 AM)
Gov. Cuomo maintains a large lead over actress/activist Cynthia Nixon in the Democratic gubernatorial primary race, a new Siena College poll released Wednesday morning shows.
Cuomo leads Nixon among likely Democratic general election voters by a 61% to 26% margin. That’s up from 58%-27% in April,…
(Wednesday, June 13, 2018 1:05:00 AM)
Half-price MTA “fair fares” and a boost to build new NYCHA senior housing in the city budget agreed upon Monday by Mayor de Blasio and the City Council will be worth their weight in gold for poorer New Yorkers.
Now pause the applause for realtalk about how this city manages its increasingly extravagant…
(Wednesday, June 13, 2018 1:00:00 AM)
The states have a right, says the Supreme Court, to follow Ohio’s terrible lead and purge from their voting rolls citizens who skip a couple of elections.
Under Buckeye State law, voters who miss one federal election get a notice with prepaid postage in the mail. If they don’t return it or vote…
(Wednesday, June 13, 2018 12:00:00 AM)
Brooklyn: The NYC ID card that pizza delivery man Pablo Villavicencio tried using was not a valid identification in the first place (“ICE-holes,” June 7). It is not a driver’s license or passport of any kind. He was trying to use this ID to enter an Army base. In these days and times, a military…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 11:55:00 PM)
Former Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort boasted about operations in the U.S. for the pro-Russian government of Ukraine.
Manafort faces federal charges for laundering money from the former Soviet republic and undisclosed lobbying of American lawmakers for its government, the most prominent indictments…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 11:55:00 PM)
This guy wheelie likes stealing phones.
For two weeks, a man has been using his bike to duck cops — and unsuspecting victims — as he zips through the city pilfering the pricey gadgets.
The bicycle bandit keeps his eyes peeled for unsuspecting New Yorkers yakking away — then swoops in, wrestles…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 9:55:00 PM)
NYPD Auxiliary Officer Michael Dorian was a volunteer when he rushed to Ground Zero, offering medical help to whoever he could find while exposing himself to toxic debris that would leave him with stage 4 skin cancer.
On Tuesday, the NYPD’s Gay Officers Action League, also known as GOAL, presented…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 9:55:00 PM)
Rep. Mark Sanford, a vocal critic of President Donald Trump, lost his South Carolina congressional seat Tuesday hours after the president injected himself into the bitter Republican primary by stoking memories of the incumbent’s public extramarital affair seven years ago.
In the most dramatic result…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 9:20:00 PM)
A Nebraska woman who vanished after an online date was strangled by two longtime suspects in her death — and surveillance footage shows the depraved duo shopping for the tools they used to butcher her remains, prosecutors say.
Bailey Boswell, 23, and Aubrey Trail, 51, were charged Tuesday with…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 9:15:00 PM)
A wild crash caused a deadly chain reaction Tuesday, sending a car careening onto a Brooklyn sidewalk, where it slammed into a woman and her 6-year-old son killing her and injuring the boy, police said.
Shaene Sinclair, 32, and her son, Jayvon Williams, were walking to a bus stop at the corner…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 9:05:00 PM)
What a bunch of BS.
That’s how Nationals GM Mike Rizzo felt about criticism from an anonymous NL executive toward Bryce Harper.
The unnamed exec referred to Harper as an “overrated, selfish, losing player” to FanRag Sports, prompting Rizzo to call the comments “chickens— and bulls—” in an interview…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 9:05:00 PM)
With a snap, “Avengers: Infinity War” made history.
The Marvel Studios blockbuster has officially passed the $2 billion mark at the worldwide box office, Disney announced Tuesday, in just its 48th day in theaters.
“Infinity War” joins just three other movies to hit that mark: “Star Wars: The Force…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 8:40:00 PM)
Note: This article appears courtesy of RotoExperts.com and the FNTSY Sports Network.
As a Fantasy community, we love prospects. There’s the hope and hype that they will be the next big thing. But there’s a reason that it’s typically recommended that you put offers out there to sell a prospect on…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 8:05:00 PM)
MEMBERS OF a Bronx biker gang, one sporting a skull tattoo, kidnapped a friend and robbed him of nearly $2 million in cryptocurrency, Manhattan prosecutors charged Tuesday.
Cesar (Fuego) Guzman, 38, a paraprofessional with the Department of Education, Allan (Joker) Nunez, 36, and Darrell (Bishop)…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 7:45:00 PM)
A Customs and Border Protection agent may have gone rogue to rope a reporter into leaking Trump administration leakers, according to a report Tuesday.
Agent Jeffrey Rambo met with journalist Ali Watkins at a Washington D.C. restaurant last year to learn how she procures sources — before revealing…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 7:25:00 PM)
ATLANTA — At least Mickey Callaway didn’t have to see this one up-close and personal.
Instead he could scream at the TV in private as Ozzie Albies crushed a grand slam off Paul Sewald in the bottom of the sixth as the Braves beat the Mets 8-2 at SunTrust Park Tuesday night.
It was the ninth loss…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 7:15:00 PM)
The man who plays President Trump on TV thinks he could do better in an election too.
Alec Baldwin apparently believes he’s suited for the non-“Saturday Night Live” Oval Office as well.
“If I ran, I would win,” the actor said Monday on Howard Stern’s Sirius XM radio show after the host asked who…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 7:00:00 PM)
Didi Gregorius rediscovered his power stroke on Tuesday night.
Gregorius hit a pair of homers — ending a 14-game drought without one — and the Yankees defeated the Nationals 3-0 at Yankee Stadium.
The 28-year-old shortstop had hit 10 homers in his first 25 games. But he came in with just one homer…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 6:30:00 PM)
He lost his Brooklyn-bred mom in the Pulse nightclub shooting two years ago and said the anniversary Tuesday still felt painfully similar to the morning after she died.
“It’s been two years, but it doesn’t feel like two years. It feels like I’m waking up to it all over again,” Robert Pressley Jr.,…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 6:25:00 PM)
WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is looking to build tent cities at military posts around Texas to shelter the increasing number of unaccompanied migrant children being held in detention.
The Department of Health and Human Services will visit Fort Bliss, a sprawling Army base near El Paso…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 6:15:00 PM)
ATLANTA — Mickey Callaway finally showed his frustration Tuesday. The first-year Mets manager was ejected after coming out to argue whether Brandon Nimmo had gotten in the way of Jesse Biddle’s curveball in the top of the fifth inning. It was Callaway’s first career ejection.
Nimmo was nicked on…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 6:05:00 PM)
A New York restaurant chain that credits its success to Anthony Bourdain’s support has raised thousands of dollars in his name after the famous chef committed suicide last week.
Jason Wang, co-founder of Xi’an Famous Food, shared a heartfelt message Friday about his relationship with Bourdain,…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 5:35:00 PM)
ATLANTA — Tuesday there was no way around it. When we last saw Sandy Alderson, the Mets’ GM was talking optimistically about the Mets going through an 8-8 stretch despite injuries. Tuesday, on a conference call with reporters, Alderson had to admit the obvious: this whole mess is ultimately on…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 5:35:00 PM)
Billy McFarland, even after being arrested in the $26 million Fyre Festival scam, cooked up a separate con job selling bogus tickets to a “LeBron James,” dinner among other events, prosecutors charged Tuesday.
McFarland — who is awaiting sentencing for his role in the notorious “cultural experience”…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 5:20:00 PM)
It’s not the police department’s Finest hour.
The city paid $12.8 million from 2014 to 2017 to settle claims of sex harassment or sex discrimination involving its employees – with the NYPD accounting for nearly a quarter of the settlements, records show. It coughed up $3.95 million to close 20…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 6:39:16 PM)
Kyrie Irving is letting Knicks fans dream for another year. The Celtics’ star guard, who has been rumored to have interest in signing with the Knicks should he opt out of his contract and become a free agent next summer, hinted at testing the free-agent market in 2019. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday for the…
(Tuesday, June 12, 2018 2:04:35 PM)
MSG Network’s Wally Szczerbiak likes both Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and Michigan State’s Miles Bridges — but believes the Knicks’ focus in the June 21 draft should be on their need for a top-line point guard. Szczerbiak, who doubles as a CBS college basketball analyst, told The Post he would take point guard studs Trae Young…
[NYTimes] An Australian Star Returns to the W.N.B.A., Happier to Be There (Tuesday, June 12, 2018 10:29:15 PM)
Liz Cambage, a 6-foot-8 center, could transform the Dallas Wings from an overachieving playoff team into a title contender.
92 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.06.13)”
I think KP still has a chance of becoming generational player, but there clearly are concerns. My biggest concern about him is his stamina, not sure if it’s a congenital thing that defies treatment but it has been concerning how tired he looks after about 20 games.
I’m not sold on Doncic yet. Sure, he’s been eating up Europe’s best league but it is still a significant leap to the NBA and some stuff I see in his film makes me wonder whether his shot and athleticism will be an issue. KP for Doncic straight up is a tough call, I might do it just for salary cap purposes but wouldn’t feel comfortable with the deal until I see Doncic play in the NBA.
Alas, it will never happen, so whatever.
He spent most of the year starting and playing most of his minutes next to garbage defenders like Kanter and Jack, and slightly below average to worse than that wing defenders in THJ and Lee. He did basically make our defense league average by himself.
Basically if you play KP with Frank and you take obviously bad defenders off the floor, you get an elite defense.
KP on, Frank on / Mudiay, Kanter, Jack, Sessions off –> DRtg 99.3 on 453 possessions
KP on, Frank on / Mudiay, Kanter, Jack, Sessions, Beasley off –> DRtg 93.9 on 345 possessions
Same group but with KP off (basically Frank on, KP off –> DRtg 111.9 on 1648 possessions
Some of the 1st group’s effectiveness was due to KOQ, but even with KOQ off, the DRtg was 101.1 (95th percentile). (Way too small a sample but the 2nd group with KOQ off had a DRtg of 86.5 on 91 possessions).
The duo of KP + Frank is the bones of an elite defense. They just need to stop playing (and signing) dudes that are obviously awful on defense.
I get what everyone is saying about Mikal being a low-ceiling player, but the guy is a really good individual defender and a really good team defender (ie. passing lanes, being in the right place at the right time). I think it’s too easy to look for offensive ceiling and forget that defense is 50% of the game. Someone like Michael Porter, Trae Young, or even Doncic has an obviously higher offensive ceiling than Mikal but probably profile never to be any better than league average on defense. Trae Young especially but also Doncic will get targeted on defense. I don’t think you’d ever have to worry about that with Mikal.
One of my favorite articles about defense is this one from 538. Blocks and steals are just hard to come by and may be more intrinsically valuable than one might expect –> that would bode well for Mikal. If the FO really is serious about going back to being a hard-nosed defensive team, how great would it be to get Mikal at 9 and someone like DeAnthony Melton (prob gone by 36?) or Jevon Carter in the 2nd round? Just imagine trying to score against Frank / Melton / Bridges / KP.
For those not wanting to click on the link above from 538, here are the money paragraphs:
In this sense, Mikal is basically the perfect statistical player. He’s highly efficient with scoring, has a great TOV% (9.1), and gets otherwise highly irreplaceable stats with his blocks and steals (and his relative weaknesses in assists and rebounds are highly replaceable stats).
Sorry – just to expand on this – players of Mikal’s profile are just extraordinarily rare – ie. blocks, steals, low turnovers, high shooting efficiency.
In the NCAA since 2009-10 only 4 players from major conferences have reached the thresholds of a steal% 2.5+, block% of 3.5+, TOV%60: Anthony Davis, Mikal Bridges, Gary Clark (also draft candidate this year), and Bonzie Colson.
In the NBA, the only players in the 3 point era with >1.5 steals/36, >1 block/36, TOV%58 are Jordan, Shawn Marion, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, and somehow Dwight Powell. (I arbitrarily chose a TS of 58+ just to widen the # of players eligible). Obviously you can’t necessarily translate Mikal’s college #s to the pros, but this is how rare these types of players are.
@5
This is very interesting, thanks Frank! Dwight Powell by the way had a pretty fantastic season, it was just overshadowed by the Mavericks being absolutely terrible. Yeah he’s a limited player etc etc but he was very very productive in 1600 minutes.
If KP stays healthy he has a good shot at being a top 10 player. Not that he’s a sure thing to be top 10, but he has a shot, which is pretty much the most anyone (outside of the Lebrons of this game) can say at 22.
I’m sure he can bring more than Doncic, who somehow is currently not even top 3 in the draft. Doncic and another Dallas / Memphis unprotected #1, and I may do it. But even then I’m not sure.
Alternate timelines:
1) Knicks trade Porzingis to grab Doncic, Porzingis becomes Dirk 2.o, Doncic becomes Jayson Williams 2.0
2) Knicks keep Porzingis, he tops out at Rik Smits 2.0, Doncic becomes Steve Nash 2.0
# Knicks fan with PTSD
I really think KP can be 85% of Dirk offensively (I don’t think he’ll ever be as good a shooter as Dirk) and 1000% of Dirk defensively. If he does that, he’s a HOF player.
He just has to embrace the idea that he’s not Durant.
All these crossovers, awkward drives, etc. are just not his thing.
Use the Dirk one-foot fadeaway – he’s really good at that when he does it!
Accept that you need a pick to get open against most defenders.
Forget the crossover except maybe once a month pull it out.
If you’re going to do Durant stuff, run off pin downs and get yourself a clean look rather than the contested Melo shots.
Hopefully Fizdale can optimize this stuff.
I would not trade him unless he indicates he’s not going to sign an extension.
I’ve started listening to the Dunc’d on draft pick previews. They are better than I expected, and helpful to me. So far, I’ve listened to three, Young, Ayton and Bagley. None of them are great on offense, to say the least. It seems so rare to get someone who is good on offense and is also an impact player defensively. Porzingis seems to be one of those players. So I am uninterested in trading him for someone who will be a rookie next year, no matter who he is.
Originally, I was more questioning KPs current value and if he might be secretly on the block.
With regards to the #2 or #5 picks, I would think the goal would be to pair Porzingis with Doncic. KP is on record as saying that Doncic is the best player in this draft and that he loves his game, but I don’t know if you could get a deal done with just picks/Frank.
But if you could get that KP/Doncic core in place, I think you could make a lot of noise in free agency eventually.
Sorry, I meant to say none of them are great on defense!
without adding in unprotected future picks (and I mean plural) I don’t see any chance of us getting Doncic without adding KP to the mix. I guess maybe we could finagle a top-1 protection. In other words, we’re not getting Doncic.
Frank @5, – Great stuff. Learned something very cool this morning.
Horney kept pissing me off by not playing KP and Frank together at the same time. Even if data was inconclusive, he should have played them together for chemistry building considering they are the future. Hope Fiz has more common sense.
During first ~ 25 games or so, when KP was lightning up the league, we played a ton of home games, Kanter was balling and Jack still had his legs, with any good NBA coach, we should have been at least 6 or 7 games above .500.
If KP, where he is right now having played two seasons and an injury, was inserted in this years draft, he’d be the #1 overall pick.
He’s not getting traded.
Phx might consider frank and our 9 and 36 or the #1
I’m a big Bamba fan and think he will ultimately be the best player in the draft. On his workout videos his 3pt shot looks pure and effortless. Shooting pocket and release form is perfect; add his height, wingspan and athletic ability and he may be the ultimate unicorn.
https://247sports.com/nba/mavericks/Article/Exclusive-Inside-Mo-Bambas-pre-NBA-Draft-building-blocks-workout-with-the-Dallas-Mavericks-118980739
I think bamba is going to be good, I read he has the fastest sprint of all the bigs.
Smartest kid in the draft. Very articulate. New York will love this kid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFZ_CkG0E78
a frintcourt of bamba and kp would be so sick.
Dincic, trae, bamba top three picks
You ready to see him paid $195M to find out?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect
Can’t tell if this is a joke.
yikes – Kevin Huerter just underwent surgery on his shooting hand…wonder if that maybe drops him into 2nd round?
@4
As far as I am concerned, they are on the right track 100%. “At the margin”, your stats are a function of your role, system, and who else is on the court with you. But some stats are easier to replace with different players and assignments (like rebounds) than others.
If you look at a common Kristaps lineup, it’s something like Kristaps-Kanter-THJ-Lee-Jack. That’s 3 mediocre defensive players, one terrible defender, and Kristaps. Post Kristaps we’d run out lineups like Kanter-Beasely-THJ-Lee-Mudiay. That’s 3 of the worst defensive players in the NBA at their positions, plus Lee and Timmy. You couldn’t come up with a worse idea than having your point guard and both your forwards be awful on defense. You could have Kawhi and Andre Roberson on the wings and that team couldn’t stop anyone.
If Kevin Huerter falls to pick #36 and the Knicks don’t take him I’d be heartbroken.
How many players have been mediocre for their first 5000+ minutes to become HOF-caliber players?
Porzingis’ similarity scores, per BBRef:
3-year
Ryan Gomes
Walter Simon
Jan van Breda Kolff
Luke Jackson
Louis Orr
Glenn Robinson (candidate for most-overrated player of the 90s/early aughts)
Grant Long
Tom Abernethy
DeJuan Blair (aaaaahahahahah Z-man)
Career
Willie Cauley-Stein (hahahahahahahahaha)
George Stone
Leon Barnhorst
Sly Williams
Leonard Gray
Dino Radja
Chuck Gilmur
I mean… haha?
I think there are two major parts of the equation when it comes to a player’s productivity on offense.
1. Actual skills
2. Using skills effectively
KP is already quite good at #1 and will probably keep getting better, but he’s actually bad at #2. The thing is, Melo aside, it’s easier for a coach to teach and make changes to use a highly skilled player effectively than it is for a high basketball IQ player to develop skills he’s not naturally gifted to have. That’s why I remain so high on KP despite moderate efficiency so far. It would be so damn easy to fix his game if he was used properly. If he actually gets better too, forgetaboutit. He can be a dominant player on both sides. The problem is we’ve only seen flashes of it. He hasn’t been able to learn and sustain it. So we are counting on coaching and maturity.
The Knicks were second to last in the NBA at steals last year is that good?
BBRef’s similarity scores are based off win shares at roughly similar positions. It’s not even adjusted for age. Dino Radja was 26 when he came into the NBA. George Stone was a small forward who played in the ABA. Kristaps is not completely a unicorn, but really tall dudes who shoot lots of 3’s are not very common in NBA history.
similarity scores aren’t great for basketball… there’s just not enough sample size and the game has been pretty volatile with key rule and scoring changes along the way shrinking the sample as well….
Porzingis is a unique player and came into the NBA a long way from where he needed to be physically. He was touted as a project but was so much better than expected in his rookie year I think people forgot how far he actually was from where he needed to be.
A good comparison is Giannis. He also came in as a project and was even worse than KP over his first 5000 minutes and is now a lock for top 5 player in the NBA if he isn’t already there.
KP improved a lot this season if you dig into the stats. For one his defense took a huge step forward. Second his scoring and efficiency was much better for most of this year. He just had a huge slump, due to his injury, THJ’s injury and Hornacek’s inability to adjust quickly, that dragged down his numbers and then his ACL kept him from bringing the numbers back up.
First 24 games: 57% TS%
Next 13 games 46% TS%
Last 11 games 57% TS%
KP was playing well when he got hurt and probably would have ended up with a 55% or 56% TS if he had been able keep playing.
So, Lonzo Ball went and dropped a diss track against Kyle Kuzma, his own Lakers teammate. It is just sad to see how my #1 draft crush from last year went and justified my major reserve about drafting him. If this kind of entitled bratiness is the face of the modern NBA just count me out. As for Lonzo, he needs to work more on his game and less on the rap singing. He’s quickly siderailing a promising NBA career with the circus he and his father have created for the Lakers.
From my perspective, I don’t care if Lonzo becomes Jason Kidd 2.0 and Frank doesn’t develop. I am 100% happy we got the latter instead of the former.
Have you seen videos of the two of them together? They treat each other like brothers or longtime college dormmates. In this video, he roasts Kuzma for wearing a jacket that looks like it was made by Ed Hardy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvU76508Lo4
@30
His slump was also impacted by how amazing he was at the very beginning of the season. Once he started dominating games, other teams started to game plan to stop him. Being the #1 scorer and expected to carry the team on your back every single night while opposing teams are designing defenses to stop “you specifically” is not so easy. Granted, he was dreadful at it for awhile. That period exposed how far he still has to go in his development, but he was learning.
Per Ramona Shelburne:
Lonzo went full Pusha-T mode and blasted Kuzma’s relationship with his father. If anyone does that to me, it’s fighting words. Forget the fact that LaVar Ball still won’t shut the f-ck up. Forget the fact that this has created unnecessary attention in a summer where even Magic said that is the most important in Lonzo’s career. The Lakers front office is trying to attract big name free agents. If I am Lebron and Paul George do I want to go to LA with this kind of side circus going around? This diss track was so stupid and selfish it boggles the mind.
Why did you separate the games into three sets? What prompted that?
The similarity scores don’t take into account style of play at all (Draymond Green’s #1 career comp is Gordon Hayward; Reggie Miller’s and Stockton’s are Kobe Bryant) but I think the quality of the player pool is telling. I don’t even like Win Shares but the “future HOFer” thing sounds like an irrational optimist’s invention, especially about a volume shooter who has yet to crack league-average TS%.
If Lonzo become Jason Kidd 2.0 and Frank doesn’t develop I’m going to wish we had Lonzo instead
I separated the games into three sets because the 13 games where he shot truly bad were an outlier on the rest of his season. He was getting double and triple teamed and neither him or the team were adjusting, until they did.
When a small group of games, 13, are so much outside of the rest of his season it is worth noting. It doesn’t mean his overall season was great but when looking for signs of improvement and future production for a young player looking for reasons behind a stretch of bad shooting is important and simply lumping it all together as one is unhelpful.
You say that because you can’t imagine the circus he would make in NYC with his antics. Lavar and Lonzo pulling their stunts would be a disaster. If you think people won’t want to come and play for Dolan, imagine how serious FAs perceive someone dropping public dis tracks on their “best friend” teammates after their first season in the NBA. As is, people here still won’t give Janis a pass.
yeah, nah
Like I said– brotherly.
Like I said – stupid and selfish.
@39
Willful ignorance is a bad look. You will believe what you want but trends are important especially when forecasting future performance. Looking at a set of data and refusing to acknowlege outside factors and peaks and valleys within that set and the reasons for them is unhelpful and obtuse.
Re: the similarity scores–
the two things that KP does that define him as a player are high volume (efficient) 3 point shooting and elite rim protection. If you plug in 3PA/100poss >6 and block percentage >4, and minutes played >1000 minutes (KP exceeds those by quite a bit), the only players you get are KP x all 3 seasons and Eddie Griffin x 2 seasons. Eddie Griffin averaged 12 points and 8 rebounds per 36 with a TS of 45 one of those years, and 12 points/11 rebounds with TS of 47 the other of those seasons.
If you lower the minute requirement to 700, you get Embiid in 2016-17.
That’s it.
And yet Jowles thinks that Willie Cauley Stein and Schlomo Goldfarb from 1954 or whoever showing up as a BRef similarity score predicts what KP’s potential might be.
I mean seriously – what would KP be today if his coach had been Brad Stevens, or Rick Carlisle, or even Steve Kerr? Or Don Nelson? Or someone not connected to the Triangle?
Hopefully we will see that this year.
it did seem like kp was making adjustments before he got hurt… namely he stopped forcing shots as much….
but you also can’t take huge chunks out of a sample…. players very rarely operate under ideal circumstances… so getting double teamed and having key ppl get hurt or the players around him change… that’s part and parcel with life in the nba….
it’s enough evidence to say that he might be passed it … but a dozen games isn’t enough to draw any firm conclusions especially when it’s small enough where variance in shooting can explain a lot of that…. that is why the whole sample tells you a lot more than thin slices do…
But the three point shot only came to pass in 1979-80 in the NBA. Big men shooting them was not a thing until very recently, so I don’t know that KP’s uniqueness in that regard is much more than a reflection of the current style of play.
I separated the games into three sets because the 13 games where he shot truly bad were an outlier on the rest of his season. He was getting double and triple teamed and neither him or the team were adjusting, until they did.
the problem with this sort of data strangulation is that given the stdev of any medium to high usage player you can generate a sequential outlier period that boost results by at least as much with a seemingly plausible explanation attached, similar to separating out a string of consecutive heads you noticed halfway through your coin flipping right when your wrist starting hurting.
You ready to see him paid $195M to find out?
i would still sign porzingis to the minimax if he came back healthy without flinching too much. he’s a unique protoype. i don’t know if he’s going to be really great, but i think if healthy he’ll be a better player than he’s been through 22, and you don’t have to pay $195. his minimax will only be around $148, starting at $26m. it’s easy to underestimate how much lower a bar this is than the majormax level and it only requires a steven adams or LMA type player to be at least okay, not a gimme HOFer.
KP hasn’t started like a HOFer but even though he comes out worse, he still rhymes a bit more with guys from the good place than the BBref list of bad place guys above.
https://tinyurl.com/yao4ttkv
That’s the whole point. He’s a completely different kind of player than what we have seen before. And even within the last few years when teams have been asking their bigs to shoot a lot more, he’s STILL a different animal in terms of his elite rim protection.
If you look just for 6’10″+ dudes that shoot lots of 3’s (Say 5 3pa/36), there are 289 such seasons in NBA history.
If you look for 6’10” dudes that shoot >5 3pa/36 and shoot league average (35%) = 94 such seasons
If you look for 6’10” dudes that shoot >5 3pa/36 and shoot league average (35%) + a BLK% >4 you get just TWO seasons, both Kristaps Porzingis. Even lowering the BLK% to 3 adds just Demarcus Cousins, Ibaka, and Rasheed Wallace. Given KP’s block rate those two seasons were 4.9 and 6.4%, you’re talking about a 40 and 50% lower block rate for DMC/Serge/Sheed.
he’s a unicorn that has been trapped in an 1820s farmhouse with a bunch of pack horses. He needs to be freed.
So anyway, trying to compare him Dino Radja and some dude from the ABA is just dumb.
Please tell me more about Andrea Bargnani’s potential, Frank. Your track record is pristine when it comes to sophistry about “fit” and “upside.” I recall you saying Bargnani was an “indifferent” defender before he suited up. Nothing a little coaching can’t fix, right?
Do you mean to tell me that you isolated an exact set of games where, according to your memory, he was double- and triple-teamed without adjustment, and you’re so confident that your endpoints are grounded in reality that you call my skepticism “willful ignorance” and “unhelpful and obtuse?”
It has nothing to do with your fanboy optimism, and has everything to do with your carefully-constructed data set.
Are you trolling right now?
btw I think Jaren Jackson and Wendell Carter both have a pretty good chance of ending up in that 3 pointer block% club. Not sure Ayton will ever be a good enough shooter or rim protector, and who knows about Bamba.
lol whataboutism at its best. Good comeback Jowles. Argue the point on its merits, not on the straw man.
Same old nonsense about optimization and coaching and upside. It’s never the player, it’s the system. It’s not a lack of skills, it’s poorly-utilized skills. Fizdale will come in, KP will have roughly the same stats, and we’ll call it a post-ACL slump. Or that Fizdale is doing weird shit. Or that his teammates aren’t helping him with open looks. But it will never be that Porzingis is pretty mediocre for a “future Hall of Famer.”
Until today, I had totally forgotten about Schlomo Goldfarb and that magical 1954 season.
🙂
Reading that Knox is supposedly climbing up draft boards and may get into the top 10? Uh oh…
Actually the original argument was that the similarity score garbage that you posted was exactly that –> garbage. You made the point that KP is unlikely to be a good player because his similarity scores were similar to Harvey Beckenstein when he played for the Philadelphia Eagles of the ABA in 1953. It was an argument you made lazily but dressed up with your usual arrogance.
it’s fine to say that because of his mediocre scoring efficiency and rebounding that you don’t think he really has the potential to be a hall of famer. That would be a perfectly defensible argument, and is in fact where you started out all the way back in post 26. But then it was “His B-ref similarity score is close to Chuck Gilmur, I mean…haha” like your argument is so smart and we’re all dumbasses.
btw – check out Giannis’s first 3 seasons vs. KP -> http://bkref.com/tiny/tQmDi
btw- check out Dirk’s first 2 seasons vs. Kp’s -> http://bkref.com/tiny/WhwVY
Dirk definitely made a jump in his 3rd season. KP didn’t play a full 3rd season and had good and bad parts of that 3rd season.
Dirk of course had Steve Nash as his PG and KP had…Ramon Sessions? Jarrett Jack? (you will argue that Dirk is responsible for his own stats and Steve Nash doesn’t help his stats at all. ok.)
Why do I choose these two? First, both of them are likely HoFers. Second, like KP, both were internationals thought to be woefully physically unprepared for the NBA and would be very long-term projects. Third, they were decidedly mediocre for their first 5000 or so NBA minutes.
KP’s problem isn’t his ability. What we saw in the first two months of last season was All-Star level play. I worry about the conditioning and now the knee injury. There are legitimate concerns he can’t sustain his play through 82 games + a grueling postseason schedule. How do you project on such an enigmatic player with such a unique physique and amazing skills? It’s very hard to bank on it.
He needs a Point guard to get him easier shots, he needs to play fewer minutes, and he needs to not be chasing stretch 4s all over the perimeter.
Two of your requests are reasonable. But KP was averaging 32-33 minutes per game. You think that is too much to ask for a max player?
Even worse, if you’ve already made up your mind, you are vulnerable to searching for explanations for the ups and downs in the data that fit your opinion and ignoring those that refute it instead of adjusting your opinion to fit the data.
When it comes to KP, it’s kind of a double edged sword. If you ignore the injuries and defensive adjustment against him that he wasn’t handling well you aren’t getting a clear picture of what happened, but if you excuse them completely you are ignoring the fact that he has been more prone to injury than hoped for so far and may never fully adjust his game to what defenses are throwing at him at different times.
I understand your point, but it’s so blatantly obvious he takes way too many horrid shots, it’s not a stretch to think if he can just fix that, there’s a better player there.
KP also needs to do something about playing well past Thanksgiving. For his career his TS by month .565 for 11 October games, .570 for 44 November games, .506 for 40 December games, .529 for 40 January games, and .520 in February and again in March in 22 and 27 games respectively.
I’m not suggesting removing or ignoring the 13 game sample I singled out. It does matter that he struggled and it does matter that he has faded as seasons have progressed, though he did seem to be bouncing back before his injuries. The reason I singled it out was that since an injury shortened his season, his really rough stretch had a greater than normal impact on his efficiency last season and to simply look at his WS/48 and say look he hasn’t improved is disingenuous and not helpful. Also, that 13 game stretch was more than just normal ups and downs. It was by far the worst stretch of his career.
There are real reasons to be concerned about KP but the black and white brush some people on here use to paint KP is not helpful when trying to project him moving forward.
KP got hurt, came back and was terrible for a while. He was facing pressure he had never faced and the sets we were running were horrible. Then he talked about his shot selection and stopped forcing mid-range turnarounds and almost instantly his efficiency rose. That is promising. It’s not definitive at all but it does show that he is capable of taking smart shots and working on his game.
Offensively he wasn’t great last year but there are real things to give us hope that he can improve his efficiency moving forward. He is still a futures bet. You don’t value him for who he is today but who he could be in two years. Maybe that’s homerism but there are a lot of people in and out of the Knicks organization and fanbase that think KP has a legit shot at being an all-NBA type player.
My simple argument for maxing KP:
(1)Our best publicly available stats (by my lights at least–RPM, PIPM, RAPM) indicate that he was a top 30-45 player in the NBA
(2) KP is 22 years old.
(3) If your star player is putting up top 30-45 productivity at age 22, he should generally be maxed.
Conclusion: KP should be maxed.
The two big leaps here are the claim that my preferred stats are the best ones and that KP comes back from injury like his old self. I think the first one is right and idk about the second one. Either way, the issue to me isn’t his productivity to date, it’s his injury and whatever lingering effects it may have.
I think KPs problem was bad screeners more than the point guard play. They either need to get him to shake his big at the three pt line or else get him matched on a shorter guy for him to shoot over.
He’s a shooter on O and a rim protector on D. But will he be more Rasheed Wallace or more Jon Koncak?
It makes sense for him to play center and be the slowest player on the court so he can stay close to the rim and hit threes as a trailer. But he needs to add muscle and get better at rebounding. He doesn’t have to be great, just average for a center. I think that’s why Miles Bridges would likely be a good fit with him, if they were to go that route.
Chris Bosh shot 302 3’s in his first ten years, then shot 608 in his last three years under Fizdale’s tutelage.
Marc Gasol shot 66 3’s thru 8 years, then 588 in two years after Fizdale joined the Grizzlies.
Kristaps improved from a 34% 3P shooter in his first two years to 39.5% last year. But he added 4 2PA’s per 36 and saw his 2P% drop to 45%.
So I would agree with Frank that it’s reasonable to be optimistic that a 22 year old kid might optimize his shot selection under this new coach, and if he does we would see improvement from his mediocre production. If his shot chart changes and he’s still mediocre, case closed. But the shot chart is so bad, I’m willing to wait and see. I am *DEFINITELY* not willing to max him out and hope, though. I’d be down to offer him 4 years, $96mm. And I think that is more than he’s shown he’s worth but I’d gamble that on his upside.
…
But I don’t know how anyone can fix his rebounding woes. And I just don’t believe you can cover for a center who pulls down 6 DRBs at an 18% clip.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea to bet on the future of a franchise scorer who also happens to be one of the better, if not one of the best, defenders at his position. Two way basketball players are rare in this league, so if he’s prime Carmelo Anthony with elite defense I’m certain that’s worth a max deal. Will it be enough against Philly? Maybe not, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a top 15 player in the NBA. We can’t all process our way into 3 franchise player level prospects and then make them sit out a year plus because our medical staff is the worst in the NBA.
The rebounding issue is a bigger concern than his shooting efficiency, because it impacts your optimal lineup construction with him and can create limiting issues like needing to find some Shawn Marion 2.0 small ball 4 who can rebound well enough to make up the difference or bringing in a 5 who may not space the floor ideally but can cover for him on the glass.
If I was coaching him my main focuses would be pretty simple:
1. When you’re doubled kick it out and re-post
2. If you’re not doubled and you have a small on you don’t settle for fadeaway or turnaround all the time, be physical and lower the damn boom a couple of times
3. Shoot less long 2s and more 3s; if you shoot more long 2s than 3s in any game it’s a fine (idk if this is legal but you get the point)
4. You need to give the team at least a 20 DRB%
If you can hit on those 4 issues he may still not be the #1 guy on a title team, but he’s minimax worthy and he’s very valuable.
We don’t work with the kid, talk to him, see him in practice, before games, after games, etc. Is he a KD type who is open to the idea that shot distribution matters or a Melo that will bristle at any coaching geared to challenge him and get him out of his comfort zone? I would guess he’s more KD than Melo in that sense, but ultimately I don’t know. That’s the call Perry and Mills have to make and it’s not one I envy.
As you can see from above, you can find stats that support almost any opinion you have about Porzingis. If you want statisticsl similarity scores that show he is good instead of bad, look here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/kristaps-porzingis/
Thesee scores take age into account. The top five comps are Brook Lopez, Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire, Spencer Hawes and Paul Gasol.
Here’s a perfect example of ascribing causation via homerism:
In Chris Bosh’s first season, 18.7% of all NBA FGs were three-point attempts. In his final season, it was 28.5%, with pace increasing by 5 possessions per 48 minutes.
Don’t worry, everyone — Fizdale is here to save the day!
While setting career lows in ORB% and, in ’16-17, TRB%. Shall we say that’s a Fizdale thing, too?
So “optimizing” means taking more shots, which, if I’m going by Knickerblogger logic, necessarily means that he’s going to see a dip in scoring efficiency. Or will he? Optimization: activated.
If his shot chart changes and he’s still mediocre, we’ll figure out a new scapegoat. As long as that scapegoat’s name isn’t Kristaps Porzingis, we’ll be able to carry some optimism into the first year of KP’s max deal.
Any metric that compares Porzingis to Spencer Hawes must be wrong. Doesn’t pass the smell test.
Poor Jack Sikma. He was a center that led the league in D-rating. In 1988 he shot 216 3pters, making 52 more than any center had ever made before. He was the original “unicorn”.
In 1988 he made $1.6 million, barely enough to buy a beachfront condominium in North Korea today.
#aheadofhistime
As far as KP is concerned my basic criticism in looking at that video of him doing strength workouts was how on earth can a professional athlete after a full 3 years with the best of everything possibly look that weak. He honestly looks like you can knock him over with a feather. Maybe 6 months of intense strength work outs will help. Its about time to pump some iron and lay off the cross overs. No wonder he hasn’t been able to function 2 months into the season.
Also… how gross did the joint capsule on his left elbow look?
Let’s play a game: you name a 7’3” player that wasn’t chronically injured throughout their career, and I’ll throw $195M at them. Ready? Go!
I don’t believe KP’s stamina is at all linked to how muscular he is. I think his lack of stamina is because he is anemic. No amount of pumping iron in the off season will erase that fact nor the fact that he’s 7′ 3″ and therefore its a lot harder for a guy like him to put on extra weight in muscle or that his body in general might get more tired because of how tall he is. I think strength training can help, obviously, and he needs to do it for other reasons but him being thin isn’t why he’s wearing down mid season.
Kareem may have been Kristaps height. If you ever see him with current players at an event he’s still taller than just about everyone.
My comments about him looking weak was more of a dis to him for his lack of commitment to working out. You cannot have a 7’3″ frame and play near the basket with a Louis Orr body.
If you think he has chronic anemia and that is the cause of his problems and the best doctors in America and Europe haven’t figured it out in 3 years, then I guess he probably isn’t worth a 150 million dollar investment now , would he be?
Is this “Knicks calling teams and trying to trade up for Porter Jr.” thing real?
“I think his lack of stamina is because he is anemic.”
I believe you are right – that’s why giving him a max contract may come back to haunt the Knicks. That sounds familiar – give max contract to “star” player that eats up a big chunk of the cap who then under performs.
Hopefully we are both wrong and KP truly turns into the Unicorn he was meant to be.
For better or worse it appears like the #9 pick will be one of the Bridges or Sexton.
Teams are calling the Knicks and gauging their interest in trading up to their spot. People assume it’s for Michael Porter Jr but that’s a rumor at this stage. If the Knicks want to make a trade, I hope they call Memphis with a lowball offer on draft night and get a steal.
Wasn’t he supposed to get operated on for that?
It seems this would be an ideal time to take care of it. He’s already hurt and out.
By this point shouldn’t the Knicks know if Kristaps has some sort of anemia related stamina problem and have some sort of plan in place to deal with it?
i think it’s pretty tough since he’s spending his offseason in a diff country…. and you just cleared the staff from the most recent season….
i’m sure they suspect…. but they would need to bring him in and run tests to confirm and i doubt he would agree to that….
and it’s hard for most big men to play heavy minutes…. kp should be avg’ing about 30mpg instead of 35…
They suspect it???? They’ve had him here for 3 bloody years…. this isn’t some difficult diagnosis.
There are all sorts of interventions to elevate hematocrit and the notion he suffers from anemia doesn’t pass the laugh test
well i mean i don’t think they are routinely drawing blood on the players unless it’s called upon…. and kp hasn’t exactly been forthcoming with the team….
they had a plan in place diet wise to control his anemia …. and i think he hooked up with a chef and nutrionist to make sure he’s getting enough iron… but beyond that i think there’s a fair chance that the team is largely in the dark….
Is Porzingis going to be the actual worst max player in the history of the NBA?
@83
Even if he really is just a league average player, he wouldn’t even be the worst max contract in the league right now. That honor belongs to Canadian Trashman Andrew Wiggins.
Also: Amar’e.
I think we must be forgetting a lot of horrible contracts. What about Gilbert Arenas, who got paid tons of money while doing nothing after he was suspended for bringing a gun to the locker room? What about paying Alan Houston $20M a year for two years after he retired or, for that matter, Carmelo’s contract that Phil gave him? Kobe’s last contract was also ridiculously expensive.
Really glad to hear that Sexton is a strong possibility to Chicago and Cleveland… that leaves one better player for us to choose from (if true).
I wonder what happens if the draft goes:
Ayton
Bagley
Jackson Jr
Porter Jr
Bamba
With Orlando at 6 and Wendell Carter Jr still on the board, I think it would make sense for both Orlando and New York to work out a trade. Orlando at 9 could still grab Sexton or Young to address the hole at point guard, and we’d get in front of Chicago who certainly wouldn’t pass on Luka Doncic./we
idk if my putative star player said he got diagnosed with anemia 7 or 8 years ago in Spain I’d probably look into that.
@85
At this stage in their careers I would rather pay KP a max than Blake Griffin.
That is a very good point about Griffin.
MPJr canceled his workout Friday. I think a top 5 team made him a promise, which means Doncic really may slip to 7. If Doncic is available at 6 it is our duty to make sure he doesn’t end up a Bull
I never thought Porter would fall to us. As I posted before, too many teams learned the lesson of Embiid, even if that lesson won’t be true for all players.