Knicks Morning News (2017.12.10)

  • [NYDN] Knicks GM Scott Perry says he won’t buy out Joakim Noah
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 8:38:12 PM)

    Knicks GM Scott Perry isn’t ready to end Noah’s days in New York just yet.

  • [NYDN] Knicks’ late run not enough, fall to the lowly Bulls, 104-102
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 5:29:21 PM)

    The Knicks once again struggled on the road, losing to the Bulls in Chicago.

  • [NYDN] Jalen Brunson, Villanova PG, checks off plenty on JVG’s criteria
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 2:49:02 PM)

    Rick Brunson admits his son Jalen is more talented than he ever was.

  • [NYPost] Jeff Hornacek loses his cool as Knicks fall to NBA-worst Bulls
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 5:42:44 PM)

    CHICAGO — If the Knicks can’t beat the NBA-worst, travel-fatigued Bulls on the road, whom can they beat away from the Garden? A wild rally from eight points down in the final 2:24 got the Knicks into a tie at 102, but the Bulls squeaked it out when Kris Dunn was fouled by Courtney Lee…

  • [NYPost] Knicks GM Scott Perry doesn’t have time for “The Process”
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 12:24:34 PM)

    CHICAGO — As much as Knicks general manager Scott Perry has referred to the 2017-18 season as one of “development,” he doesn’t want that misconstrued as wanting to lose to get a high lottery pick. In his first denial the new regime went into this season with eyes on tanking, Perry took a shot at…

  • [NYPost] Why Joakim Noah can still help us: Knicks GM
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 7:36:13 AM)

    CHICAGO — Knicks general manager Scott Perry says he hasn’t entertained thoughts of buying out Joakim Noah, despite the team’s logjam at center, feeling Noah may have a role at some juncture. Since returning from the drug suspension that cost him the first 12 games of this season, Noah has appeared in just two contests,…

  • [SNY Knicks] Kanter seen limping after Knicks’ loss, thinks he’ll play on Sunday
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 11:02:09 PM)

    Enes Kanter was seen limping after the Knicks 104-102 loss to the Bulls.

  • [SNY Knicks] Road struggles continue as Knicks lose 104-102 to Bulls
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 10:30:59 PM)

    Road struggles continue as Knicks lose to the Bulls 104-102 in Chicago.

  • [SNY Knicks] Joakim Noah inactive against former team Bulls
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 6:53:57 PM)

    Joakim Noah is inactive against the Bulls Saturday.

  • [SNY Knicks] Scott Perry says Knicks won’t tank
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 5:51:49 PM)

  • [SNY Knicks] Tonight’s game: Knicks vs. Bulls, 8 p.m.
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 3:22:14 PM)

    CHICAGO — After 10 consecutive losses, the Chicago Bulls finally found a way to finish off a victory. Whether they can return on short rest to record back-to-back wins for the first time this season now becomes the question.

  • [SNY Knicks] Perry says Joakim Noah will have a role with Knicks
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 3:54:42 PM)

    Knicks C Joakim Noah will play a role on the Knicks moving forward and the team does not plan to buy out his contract, GM Scott Perry told the New York Daily News.

  • [ESPN] Mirotic calls his shot after taking one from Portis
    (Sunday, December 10, 2017 1:08:37 AM)

    Nikola Mirotic’s return to the Bulls has resulted in consecutive wins for the first time this season.

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks’ rally falls short against lowly Bulls
    (Sunday, December 10, 2017 12:28:36 AM)

    There are road woes — long travel, unwelcoming crowds and difficult schedules — and then there’s what the Knicks are going through now. Let’s go ahead and call these road crises.

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks GM Scott Perry sees value in Joakim Noah
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 9:10:28 PM)

    CHICAGO — Knicks general manager Scott Perry said there will come a day when Joakim Noah will muscle himself past the three centers ahead of him on the depth chart — whether due to matchups, injuries, or the myriad other unpredictable things that can happen over a course of an 82-game season.

  • [NY Newsday] Kristaps Porzingis sees playoff spot for youthful, energetic Knicks
    (Saturday, December 09, 2017 5:30:00 PM)

    Kristaps Porzingis knew everything would be different without Carmelo Anthony. But he believed the Knicks would win more games than anyone expected, felt they could make the playoffs.

  • [NYTimes] Bulls 104, Knicks 102: Knicks’ Rally Late, but Can’t Beat Bulls at the Buzzer
    (Sunday, December 10, 2017 4:54:18 AM)

    The Knicks scored 10 consecutive points to tie the score at 102, but Kristaps Porzingis’s last-second 3-pointer just missed.

  • 50 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2017.12.10)”

    The Knicks are younger and have draft picks, but they are still trying to win now and avoid a rebuilding year at the expense of the future.

    The idea that if everything breaks right, and we get the #8 seed, that the benefits to the “culture” will outweight higher draft picks and cap space is just dumb, IMHO.

    I’ve seen the winning culture argument so many times and I still can’t give credit to it. I think people somehow blindly associate the Spurs to everything good that basketball should be and forget that building a Spurs has been done precisely once.

    The top 2 teams of the league are the Warriors and Cavaliers, perennially tortured franchises. The Cavs went from 61 wins to 19, 21, 24 and 33 wins, then all the way back to the finals. What’s the winning culture there? They built talent on this years (Irving, Thompson and Wiggins to trade for Love) and then of course Lebron, who I suppose by himself counts as winning culture. The Warriors were terrible for so many years until they found the talent and weren’t anymore. The Thunder had many straight horrible years until they got the talent.

    It’s a talent driven league, if you build a winning culture with less talent than necessary to win your ceiling is the damn Raptors or the Wizards. I just dont see the point in planning to become that when you suck.

    I didn’t watch the game because it was a sure W in my mind. So will someone please tell me how in the fawk did we lose last night? I read the box score and it doesn’t tell the whole story. I saw that KP missed a ton of shots, Ntilikina had a good game as did Kris Dunn(a player that I badly wanted the Knicks to trade for last season), and Mirotic killed us off the bench. Did the squad just overlook the Bulls or something? Or is this awful play on the road an official “thing” for the team?

    I am not one to rag on coaching but last night’s game was awful unless they are in stealth tank mode. No matter what went on in the previous 47 minutes starting with about 35 seconds left the Knicks should have been at least been subbing Frank in for defense on every stoppage and there were about 5 of them til the end of the game. Just awful.

    You can see he is trying to ease Dotson into the rotation but with Hardaway out (and don’t be surprise if it isn’t a lot longer than 2 weeks) it is time to play him, Frank and McD starters minutes and see what happens. Baker can take Frank’s back up minutes and if a reasonable deal exists for Lee and KOQ do it. And if KP thinks he is going to be Melo lite……

    Experience and leadership in the locker room is great, but Messier’s “great” leadership wasn’t worth much his last 8 years in the league when he couldn’t dial it up and score a hat trick in a game 6 when he needed to……

    I’m starting to trust Perry more and more.

    1. Despite conventional wisdom, the draft math is pretty clear. A few extra ping pong balls don’t matter much once you are outside the top 5 picks or so. We are 25 games into this season and still don’t know whether Frank was a better or worse pick than several players selected before and after him. We may not know for a few years. A lot of it is player development and luck. The “no brain” picks are at the very top. We aren’t going to be in that range.

    2. Part of player development is playing meaningful games under fire. That goes double for getting playoff experience under high pressure where the games are called differently, defenses are more physical, there are constant adjustments, and young players’ nerves are firing on all cylinders. Giannis Antetokounmpo got something out of his playoff experience last year and is mentally tougher and smarter this year for it. That’s a process also. The same will be true for KP, Frank, Dotson, Willy, and each our other young players once we get to their level and are battling in meaningful games.

    3. A lot of top free agents and players looking to be traded won’t even give us an interview because we are seen as a dysfunctional losing organization. Players want to win. That’s why teams like the Spurs always draw good players on good deals. If the Knicks want to be part of those conversations they have to be seen as an up and coming well managed team.

    4. There will be a time to tank games if the wheels start coming off as the schedule gets tougher, but we are nowhere near that. And as far as I know, there are no offers on the table for any of our players where the deal would make sense for us. There’s loads of interest, but teams are hoping we are still foolish enough to give good players away. No deal should be made unless we win it. We need to be patient if we want to get a good return.

    But there are likely teams in the league who have more use for Courtney Lee, KOQ, and maybe Kanter than young players or picks whereas we, IMO, have more use for young players and picks.

    I’m starting to think KP doesn’t have a very high basketball IQ. I’ll grant him a little slack because he’s trying to learn how to be the #1 option, but his shot selection would be dreadful if he was a rookie. As a 3rd year player it’s inexcusable. What makes matter worse is that he’s weak rebounder and playmaker. That means all his value comes from his scoring ability and defense. He has to more than make up for his weaknesses with much better than average play at his strengths. If he’s going to be a high usage average efficiency scorer taking 4-5 bad shots a night, he’s not a very good player, let alone a star. We go as he goes. When he’s scoring efficiently he brings enough to the table for us to win games. When he’s not, we are bad. It was that way last year and it’s that way again now. Someone has to explain to him the difference between a good shot and bad one because he’s literally clueless.

    But there are likely teams in the league who have more use for Courtney Lee, KOQ, and maybe Kanter than young players or picks whereas we, IMO, have more use for young players and picks.

    Other teams have our phone number. If someone wants one of our players they can call us and make an offer. Perry won’t hang up. Putting them on the market and actively trying to trade them has all kinds of downsides. There’s no one on this team we have to move because he’s poisoning the situation. Even Beasley, despite his problem on the court, is no problem.

    Here’s my take on roster moves…
    1st, I’ll start with the elephant in the room wearing a 13 jersey. I wish he could be granted a medical retirement, but he appears healthy. So, why not play him with the 2nd unit with the hopes that a contending team comes knocking for his services? We have 4 centers who can play. It’s not gonna hurt to move KOQ as much as it will hurt to keep him if the goal is more ping pong balls. I think Kanter has proven enough as a Knick thus far to stay.

    Courtney Lee’s value is never gonna be higher than it is now. I’m kinda torn on trading him now. He and Lance are great options as vets with defensive mentalities and great work ethic for the youngins to learn from. Plus Lee is playing well. The problem with Lee is his presence hurts our size on the wings. If we make the playoffs, that is gonna be a problem as there are plenty wing combos that are bigger than the combo of THJ and Lee. Running them out there with a weak rebounding KP is fine now. But as the games get tighter and more important, KP is gonna need to rebound better or we will need more size on the wings to have a shot at rebounding better as a team.

    Now is the time to contemplate starting Ntilikina. He doesn’t have to get 30-plus minutes right now, but he is the future so Hornacek should see what he has as a table setter. He’s playing well enough to give me faith that he’ll grow in that role, and he’s probably our best PG even though he’s 19. Batum is back with Charlotte, and Philly is tough, so it makes our road to the playoffs harder and less likely.

    I understand your concerns stratomatic but what’s the point of giving guys playoff experience when they just aren’t talented enough to contend?

    You use Giannis as an example. Last year Giannis was miles ahead of Porzingis now, he was a bona fide superstar and top 10-15 at the very least player in the league. If you have this guy, then sure, by all means build a winning culture around him. Is KP that guy? I dont know, but if every time november ends he becomes 7’3 Melo, then what’s the point?

    If you build a winning culture around guys who just aren’t superstars you end up with the Wizards, Gilbert Arenas and John Wall versions of it. They have no cap space to make moves for big free agents because they’re always going win-now and they don’t have assets to make trades for the same reason. I would rather be the Hawks today than the Wizards.

    The Knicks need another guy. For all I like Ntilikina, the best case scenario for him is to be the ideal 3rd guy on a a very good team. Is Hardaway that guy? I would rather place my bets on no and amass every ping pong ball available to have more chances. We’re still owned by Dolan and it’s a pipes dream that big top free agents will choose us instead of the other much better situations around the league, the New York allure hasnt been enough for decades.

    Missed the game last night, thank heavens! Nice to see Frank’s line not being dreadful for a change. KP on the other hand… and what’s up with Kanter? Is he hurt?

    A few weeks ago when we were like 9-6, I posted that we would be under .500 before long. Since then, we’ve won a couple of games I thought we would lose and lost a couple I thought we would win. But we are right on track to be where most of us thought we would be before the season started…a low-30’s win team and a mid-to bottom of the lottery pick. We had a nice run early but now teams have scouting reports on KP, etc. and guys are getting banged up. Clearly we are very fragile…any missing starter severely hampers any chance of winning. It’s going to take a lot longer to get to 20 wins than it did to 10.

    I’m not going to get on either Hornacek or Perry/Mills too much right now. Hornacek is still in a fragile position and a prolonged losing streak at this point in the season would not bode well for him, especially given Perry’s comments. The only way that this team will go into full tank mode right is if KP gets hurt. Aside from that, I don’t see Jack being benched or Lee/O’Quinn getting traded until the deadline approaches.

    KP’s regression is definitely the most disturbing aspect of our current poor play. I’m starting to worry about some kind of congenital stamina issue.

    RE Kanter last night, a couple of things struck me. First, Lopez is like Adams, a tough, physical defender down low that gives Kanter problems. Also, the Bulls really swarmed on him down low. Even so, he had a decent rebounding night but was harassed more than usual down low.

    The Bulls looked to clearly try to shut down Kanter and KP and force the Knicks to beat them from the perimeter. Lots of doubling on them, etc.

    What really killed the Knicks was Lee’s 1-9 start and KP’s chucking. The guys on the bench, particularly Frank and McD, kept the game close for the starters to choke it away at the end.

    RE Hornacek’s rotations…either the Knicks are stealth tanking or he’s just got a lot of Terry Collins (former Mets manager) in him. Good guy, but loves to play his vets to a fault over young guys. I remember in 2013 Collins playing an obviously washed up Rick Ankiel for awhile over a young and clearly more talented Juan Lagares. And, the same year, famously, stubbornly, starting (and usually hitting him cleanup) awful Ike Davis at 1b game after game after game. Both guys put up impressive strike out numbers per at bat.

    Maybe the Mets were stealth tanking.

    You need stars to win championships. This is how the last 10 champions got their stars.

    Warriors: Durant (free agent) , Steph (draft), Dray (draft), Klay (draft)
    Cavs: LeBron (technically a FA, but he only went there because it was his original franchise), Kyrie (draft)
    Warriors: Steph, Dray, Klay (all drafted)
    Spurs: Kawhi (draft), Duncan (draft), Parker (draft)
    Heat: LeBron (FA), Wade (draft), Bosh (FA)
    Heat: same as above
    Mavs: Dirk (draft)
    Lakers: Kobe (draft), Pau (trade)
    Lakers: see above
    Celtics: KG (trade), Pierce (draft), Allen (trade)

    That’s 16 draft picks, 6 free agents (including LeBron on the Cavs), and 4 trade acquisitions. Of the free agents, Durant joined a team that was already the best in the league, LeBron and Bosh went to Miami to enjoy the beach and form a superteam, and LeBron went to Cleveland to go back home. No free agents joined a mediocre club because of its “winning culture” and elevated it to a championship.

    It’s pretty clear that the formula for winning titles is to draft stars and then get lucky, either by making a lopsided trade (with your existing draft assets), or by having LeBron join your team.

    Porzingis’ last good game was against Sacramento on November 11. Since then he has stunk out the joint: .500 TS% on 31.5% usage. He really needs some coaches who can develop him properly and get him to stop wasting 4-5 possessions every game on low-percentage isos but this coaching staff doesn’t seem to excel at player development.

    If this is what he is– a chucking iso artist who scores inefficiently and doesn’t rebound– well, that’s pretty Knicksy. He does defend well, so he has that going for him but right now he seems awfully overrated to me.

    Looking at the standings, I don’t think it’s too unlikely that our win totals wind up in the mid-high 20’s. I don’t see many sure wins for us out there, especially after getting beat by the Bulls, Pacers, Magic and Hawks. The Bulls only have 5 wins so I doubt we’ll ever be passed by them, and if we win today, the Hawks are probably out of reach. But the Heat, Nets, Magic and Hornets (who seem better on paper but have a 1-10 road record?!) can all be better than us, and so can all the bottom feeders in the West. Finishing 5th or 6th is possible, and as high as 3rd is not out of the question, even via the stealth tank. It’s clear that the bottom feeders are starting to see us as a very beatable team.

    @14 what you left out is that none of those teams were successful due solely to tanking and drafting #1-3. GSW never picked in the top 3, Cavs benefitted from LeBron coming home, Miami was lucky that LBJ, Bosh and Allen decided to join Wade, Celts drafted Pierce at #10, fleeced the Wolves for KG, traded for Allen, and picked Rondo at #21, Mavs drafted Dirk at #9 and surrounded him with veteran FAs like Kidd, Calderon, Chandler, and Terry; and the Spurs have been good forever, with everyone but Duncan being a low pick or FA. So I’m not sure what your point is, or whether it’s relevant to the current Knicks.


    I agree completely. We’re 4 games ahead of the top 5 in the lottery with a strength of schedule around the middle of the table (that I don’t think accounts for the Knicks abysmal road / home splits).
    Trading Lee and O’Quinn and giving more minutes to Ntilikina, Hernangomez, Dotson and McDermott should make the team a bit worse right now also.

    I’m honestly full on about tanking again.

    NYK – Porzingis Turnaround Jump Shot: Made

    NYK – Porzingis Jump Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Pullup Jump shot: Missed Block

    NYK – Porzingis Pullup Jump shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Turnaround Jump Shot: Made

    NYK – Porzingis Pullup Jump shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Jump Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis 3pt Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Turnaround Jump Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Turnaround Jump Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Turnaround Jump Shot: Made

    NYK – Porzingis 3pt Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Jump Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis 3pt Shot: Made (9 PTS) Assist

    First half: 4-14, no layups, no dunks, nothing at the rim at all, 2 assisted bucks


    I don’t think he’s saying necessarily that tanking will instantly create a good team, just that the best way to find stars is still the draft, so why not focus on the draft?

    No very good team has become good only through the draft, however, there’s got to be a base to build upon and that much more often than not comes from finding a star on the draft. Like I said, if Porzingis was to be that star it’s fine, we have the base already. I’m not confident he is.

    NYK – Porzingis Cutting Dunk Shot: Made (11 PTS) Assist

    NYK – Porzingis 3pt Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Driving Dunk Shot: Made (13 PTS) Assist

    NYK – Porzingis Pullup Jump shot: Made (15 PTS) Assist

    NYK – Porzingis Dunk Shot: Made (17 PTS) Assist

    NYK – Porzingis 3pt Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Pullup Jump shot: Made (19 PTS) Assist

    NYK – Porzingis Driving Layup Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis 3pt Shot: Missed

    NYK – Porzingis Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)

    NYK – Porzingis Jump Shot: Made (23 PTS) Assist

    NYK – Porzingis 3pt Shot: Missed

    2nd half, 6-11, six assisted shots, 4 shots at the rim

    I get that we’re not a team with a lot of guys who can go by their man off the dribble, but look at how much better Kristaps is when used as a guy who finishes plays, not as the guy who initiates them.

    But the record shows that recent championship teams were mainly built on players outside the top few picks. We will get a top-15 pick at the worst and likely a #5-10 pick. Then the lottery becomes less tank-friendly. Would we be in that different of a position if we drafted Turner or Jokic? Are we worse off now that we drafted Frank over Josh Jackson or Fox? Look at Milwaukee, their stud is a low ddraft pick, and the guy they picked #2 is largely irrelevant thus far. Philly has gems in Embiid and Simmons, but also struck out on Okafor, Carter-Williams and Noel, and now maybe Fultz.

    It’s drafting smart that matters, not tanking.

    I really think Melo is partly to blame for KPs iso tendencies; they were by all accounts really close and you can see the change in his play as he spent more time with Melo.

    On the other hand, KP was feasting in the paint for most of the euro championships, maybe because Timma and Latvia’s PG would be the best distributors on the team if theyplayed in the nba. Either way, he’s gotta stop isoing.

    Drafting high and drafting smart are not mutually exclusive. You can do both.

    If you were a brilliant drafter and knew that LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Melo were all future stars, would you rather pick #5 or #6? Because all of them were gone by #6, so no matter how smart you are you couldn’t have gotten one. It is ALWAYS better to pick higher and have more choices than pick lower and have fewer choices.

    There’s a difference between “tanking” and “rebuilding.” The Knicks are forever chasing the #8 seed becuz “culture” or something, and so it’s never really a full-throated rebuild. The Phil years were the best example of this. The very obvious thing to do at that point, with Amar’e and Bargs and JR and Shump and all of those guys on the books, was to clean house, sign-and-trade Melo, and start from scratch. Use cap space to procure assets, trade veterans for picks, avoid long-term contracts to decline-phase veterans. Phil went in another direction, so we don’t have a young and improving roster, we have a couple of young guys with upside and a bunch of guys who are stopgap type players. We’re pointed in the right direction now that Melo has been unceremoniously dumped but the boat is moving real slow.

    Phil’s gone and there’s a new regime in charge, but we don’t have a surplus of draft picks or assets. All we can really do is add one first-rounder per year in the draft, hope we don’t have too many busts, and see where we’re at after drafting 8-12 for a bunch of years in a row. It’s kind of too late to blow it up and go full tank at this point. We’re stuck in purgatory, at least for the next few seasons.

    Tanking is not the goal in itself. It’s a means to an end. It gives you more choices in the draft.

    If we could play all our best guys and still draft #1, then by all means, do that. That’s unfortunately not how basketball works.


    Right, tanking is only part of a larger rebuilding strategy. Every smart team should establish a strategic plan for how to achieve what they’re trying to achieve.

    What is our goal? — Be a championship contender
    What do we need to become a championship contender? — Multiple stars
    How do we get multiple stars? — Draft, trade, or free agency
    Can we trade for a star? — Probably not. We only have one big asset, which is our existing star.
    Can we sign a star in free agency? — Not until 2020 at the earliest since we have no cap space in 2018 or 2019
    Can we draft a star? — Maybe
    OK, what are the best ways to draft a star? — Have as high a pick as possible, scout as well as possible, and get lucky.
    How do we do those things? — We can’t control our luck. We can hire the best scouts and analytics people. We can also intentionally move up in the draft.
    How do we intentionally move up in the draft? — Lose more games
    How do we lose more games? — Trade older players who are good now but won’t be good or won’t be on the team when you’re contending. Rest players with small, nagging injuries.

    There should be a human stipulation in the lottery affecting ping pong balls based on factors outside of just one season. For example, a teams consecutive playoff drought and championship appearances should factor in when determine overall Ping pong balls.

    The NBA should allow teams to buy lottery balls based on whose fans donate the most hours to an eligible charity, with the value of an hour spent scaled to some measure of fan-base size. This would reduce tank incentives by diluting the value of a loss and increase utility by giving lottery balls to the fans who want them most. Plus charity.

    Jordan Hill/Steph Curry anyone?

    Once you know you’re not a contender and don’t have the roster to he one, you have to act accordingly right away. This whole wait til February and then trade Lee thing is asinine.


    Exactly. The Knicks have been trying to build a winning culture and go to the playoffs for 2 decades and has built zero. Giving yourself better options in the lottery helps even more of you draft smartly.

    Saw some of the Utah / Bucks game. Bledsoe completely shut down Mitchell.
    I have no words for Giannis. The powers that be need to put Milwaukee on nationally televised games more often.


    That Giannis driving lefty dunk at the end was ridiculous. Gobert was technically in position to attempt a block and realized he had no chance.

    I still don’t see a rebuttal to @17. Not a single team in @14 strategized losing games in the first half of the season (in the manner being advocated here) at any time for the purposes of increasing draft odds. Not one.

    I agree completely that we should lose as many games as possible and turn the team over to the kids, and I’d be psyched if we did. But it’s not gonna happen. Can we at least agree on that? And if so, what does that mean, that we’re doomed to mediocrity for another decade or more?

    The good news is that the very history posted in @14 has shown us that a team that does exactly what we are doing right now can improve to contender status in 3-5 years without “rebuilding” as JK and Oakman described, so long as they draft well at the position they are in, don’t make any dumb long-term signings, and make net plus trades like the Melo deal. Sure, the Knicks might fuck that up, but they might also draft a total bust. with a top 5 pick.

    I understand your concerns stratomatic but what’s the point of giving guys playoff experience when they just aren’t talented enough to contend?

    I never played basketball competitively, but I played other sports and games where experience and nerves were a factor. When you are inexperienced under pressure, you often have a really tough time thinking clearly and executing at your usual level. Professional basketball players are no different, especially young ones. The more times you go through those pressure situations, the tougher you get mentally and the more you learn to play through the nerves. So you want that experience as quickly and as often as possible. It’s a part of your development and part of learning to win.

    Every year KP, Frank, Willy etc… are not in the playoffs is another year they are losing in aspects of their development that they will have to make up for later. Even if they are better players 2-3 years from now, they won’t be ready for playoff pressure until later if they don’t start getting experience soon.

    Unless there’s something significant to be gained by tanking or we are already out of the chase, IMO, the value of getting seasoning is greater than the value of a few extra ping pong balls that “might” give us a chance to take a “guess” on a draft pick 1 or 2 slots earlier. So I am against tanking until we are out of it.

    I don’t know why, but I just looked at Giannis’ stats on BKRef and his positional listings year to year made me lol:
    2013-14: SF
    2014-15: SG
    2015-16: PG
    2016-17: SF
    2017-18: PF
    Like who does that? Who plays a full season at pg, sg, sf, and pf?

    I still don’t see a rebuttal to @17. Not a single team in @14 strategized losing games in the first half of the season (in the manner being advocated here) at any time for the purposes of increasing draft odds. Not one

    the answer is in the vast unseen distribution and the mundane trade off between small probability improvements and modest marginal utility gains. Whenever you have a complex problem like building a winning team and a tiny sample like recent nba history, the sample is going to starve you of real information. what we know with reasonable confidence is that your odds of drafting a star decrease as your pick worsens, but that the distribution will be volatile and the pick by pick gradient is often rather small. This limits the value of sacrificing something to get a higher pick. on the other hand it doesn’t eliminate the value, since on average history is clear that higher picks improve your chances of star catching.

    so what are you sacrificing. You are sacrificing the fun of wins today. though many think a marginal win has little value if it means the difference between 25 and 35 wins. maybe you are sacrificing “culture.” this either has value bc it allegedly improves your chance of winning future games or improves your chance of attracting players in free agency. People disagree on whether this value exists, or if so is more than trivial.

    So you have small, lumpy leaps in the probability of a large reward against gains that are either quite low reward or very uncertain to exist. this is a difficult problem, like asking whether you should pay another penny to find out 18 incorrect lottery numbers. The answer isn’t going to be available in what the last 10 lottery winners chose to do. it is a hard problem.

    I know that it is just one example, but it is a painful one.

    Once upon a time (2009), the Knicks coveted Stephen Curry. They scouted him and wanted him. However, GS took him exactly one pick before the Knicks could because they had better draft position. All the scouting in the world didn’t help the Knicks miss out on a super duper player that they wanted.

    It takes luck to draft a star in the lottery, but you can increase your chances by having as high pick as possible.

    And while we’re at it, please explain to me how playing Beasley significant minutes helps establish a winning culture? I think you establish a winning culture by bringing in lots of young players, play them and evaluate them. Rinse and rewash until you’ve got a good young team, then GO FOR IT via a big trade or FA signing. Or two.

    @39 I’m convinced that if we had moved up one spot and drafted Curry, we would have absolutely traded him when his ankle issues flared up.

    That would have been way more painful than drafting Jordan Hill.

    Ptmilo put it best. Every single piece of data we have demonstrates an almost perfectly linear relationship between draft pick and expected production. If I recall correctly there’s some random stuff here and there (3 being better than 2, etc.), but generally speaking there’s no disputing this.

    So you have to weigh that against whatever benefits you think exist from winning games in a clear non-contending year. The higher draft pick has empirical evidence to support it, the winning meaningless games, to my knowledge, does not, though I would be interested to see if there is any information about this. You can probably tell which side I lean towards in this debate.

    If we trade Lee and KOQ, I don’t have much of an issue with letting the dominoes fall where they may after that (unless we do something truly bizarre like play Noah and Lance Thomas a ton). There’s no logical reason to not seek to move those guys though.

    @39, it’s a pretty poor example. GSW did not out-tank us to get that pick; they actually won 4 out of their last 8 games to finish 29-53, while we went 4-13 in our last 17 games. Meanwhile, 5 teams in better draft positions passed over him to take the likes of Hasheem Thabeet and Jonny Flynn (the ever-tanking T-Wolves whiffed twice!) and of those teams, only OKC has been a true contender…and even they fucked up by letting Harden go to keep Ibaka and Perkins in the fold.

    Obviously all things being equal, having a higher draft pick is better than having a lower draft pick. But it’s far more complicated than that, as ptmilo points out. It could mean that your team is so badly managed that you have no eye for talent and can’t build a roster full of value players, either through the draft or otherwise. Sacto and Minny are great examples, and before that, the Clips. The Warriors are not a great example. They did pretty much what we have been doing and just picked the right guys after other teams passed on them.

    All single examples are pretty poor, but that one involves the Knicks, and I did not say that GSW outtanked the Knicks (straw man?), simply that they had the earlier pick. Is that in dispute?

    And, if you’re team stinks, nothing wrong with “tanking” by playing young guys and dealing off the vets. The record will take care of itself.

    The Knicks wouldn’t have traded Curry for cap space because D’Antoni and Walsh were both in love with him. They traded Hill because he wasn’t very good although he did go on to have some decent success later in his career.

    Clash, you cited the example. My guess was that you were trying to make a point about the hypothetical importance of 1 draft slot, but you can’t really do that without considering the dynamics of that specific draft. Your point was inserted into an argument about tanking to get a higher draft slot, when neither the Knicks nor GSW did so that year and the teams that did never won a championship. If your point wasn’t to say that the GSW was smarter than us, what exactly was your point?

    But we are right on track to be where most of us thought we would be before the season started…a low-30’s win team and a mid-to bottom of the lottery pick.

    The actual average Knickerblogger prediction was 28 wins. Only 5 people out of 25 thought the Knicks would have more than 30 wins this year. You could be right, we’ll regress to under thirty total. If we can’t learn to win on the road, our winning percentage is going to get worse. In a way, this might be a test to see if our veterans can actually teach the youngsters about how to do well on the road.;_ylu=X3oDMTByb2lvbXVuBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–/RV=2/RE=1512978156/RO=10/

    Z-man, it is right there, dead center in my original post. No great master’s thesis, just that draft position is a good thing. There are several currents in today’s thread, and I was not trying to address all of them.

    Btw, my example is not about the “hypothetical importance of 1 draft slot.” It actually happened; nothing hypothetical there. The Knicks missed out on Stephen Curry by one spot. Further, it is about the team most of us here root for, the Knicks, a team that hasn’t had a lot of first round picks in recent years, so I think that one example has some relevance.

    FWIW, someone else, I think maybe 2for18, brought up that draft earlier today.

    The way I got over losing out on Curry is that I know if they drafted him, he would have went in the melo deal and my head would have exploded and Dantoni would have quit on the spot and then burned down the Garden and Dolans house.

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