Knicks Morning News (2017.10.14)

  • [NYPost] Knicks can’t defy expectations? Other New York teams did
    (Saturday, October 14, 2017 1:43:10 AM)

    They said the Yankees would rebuild this season and the Jets had a great shot at the No. 1 overall pick and an 0-16 record. They said the pitching-rich Mets were headed to another World Series and the Giants to another Super Bowl. Four New York sports examples of Kevin Garnett’s famous mantra “Anything is…

  • [NYPost] Knicks’ point guard situation remains murky
    (Saturday, October 14, 2017 12:19:25 AM)

    The horn has sounded on the preseason, it’s less than a week until opening night, and the Knicks’ picture at point guard — only the most important position in the modern NBA — remains out of focus. Frank Ntilikina, the franchise’s point guard of the future, sat out a fourth straight game because of a…

  • [NYPost] A big sign the Knicks’ Frank Ntilikina is getting a big push
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 9:13:43 PM)

    Frank Ntilikina is out … with a billboard. Entering the regular season, the Knicks’ rookie point guard will have as many preseason games under his belt as he does giant billboards. On Friday, a new Nike billboard of Ntilikina was unveiled, nearly completed, on a high-rise building next to the Garden. That’s a lot to…

  • [NYPost] Knicks’ new sharpshooter shows off skills in preseason loss
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 6:00:41 PM)

    Doug McDermott had his first scoring binge in a Knicks uniform, just in time for the games to start to count. The sharpshooter, obtained from the Thunder in last month’s Carmelo Anthony trade, went off for 21 points as the Knicks wrapped up their preseason slate Friday night with a 110-103 loss to the Wizards…

  • [NY Newsday] Frank Ntilikina expected to be healthy, ready to play in Knicks opener
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 10:14:00 PM)

    Frank Ntilikina has played in only one preseason game due to a knee issue, but the Knicks rookie point guard is already big in New York.

  • [ESPN] Vote: Which NBA rookie are you most excited about?
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 10:37:53 AM)

    Vote: Which NBA rookie are you most excited about?

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks fall to Wizards, go winless in preseason
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 10:25:34 PM)

    Bradley Beal scored 24 points in his best game of the preseason, helping Washington send the Knicks to a winless exhibition slate as the Wizards won 110-103 Friday at the Garden.

  • [SNY Knicks] Van Gundy says Porzingis needs to help unite Knicks this season
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 5:10:21 PM)

    With Carmelo Anthony in Oklahoma City, Kristaps Porzingis is now the face of the Knicks. And former head coach Jeff Van Gundy said this season will be a “great opportunity” for Porzingis to grow.

  • [SNY Knicks] Just how bad will the Knicks’ defense be this season?
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 2:00:26 PM)

    The Knicks’ defense has been worse-than-average in 15 of the last 16 seasons.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks utilizing analytics, advanced statistics under Mills, Perry
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 10:10:00 AM)

    The Knicks are utilizing advanced statistics and analytics more under president Steve Mills and GM Scott Perry, and hired someone to work deeper with statistics, according to the New York Post’s Marc Berman.

  • [NYDN] Knicks finish preseason winless with loss to Wizards in finale
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 7:04:52 PM)

    If the preseason is any indication, the Knicks are heading into a long and painful six months.

  • [NYDN] Nike constructing a giant billboard of Knicks PG Frank Ntilikina
    (Friday, October 13, 2017 4:09:02 PM)

    There’s a new babyface of the Knicks hovering over the Garden, but that player is still having problems getting on the court.

  • 42 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2017.10.14)”

    One other thing from last night’s game: Keep an eye on Kelly Oubre Jr. He’s long, fluid, and has some flash to his game, I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a big jump this year.

    “Knicks utilizing analytics, advanced statistics…”

    It actually sounds like they are mainly trusting their guts.

    I’m not concerned and KP’s or Ntilikina’s injuries. It’s preseason, sit anybody who’s not 100% even if they could easily play. I think we’ll probably see the same thing in the regular season too if we’re serious about the focus not being on winning games.

    O’Quinn is just a big galoot out there. He’s hard on the eyes even when he’s playing well.

    O’Quinn is my favorite Knicks player right now, so much fun to watch.

    It sure feels like both Ntilikina and Baker are gonna “outplay” Session, once everyone’s healthy. I can actually see it happening. Baker hasn’t been craptastic, and if he can make his 3’s, he should get minutes over Sessions at some point. So far, he looks better than last season. Still can’t put the ball on the floor well enough to threaten defenses though. Ntilikina, on the other hand, I have no doubt thay he outplays Sessions if he’s healthy.

    Tim Hardaway Jr seems poised to give the Knicks surplus value on that contract he signed. I love what I’ve been seeing from him. He can score in the flow of an offense and he’s a better passer now.

    I agree TH2 has improved. But I think the odds he provides surplus value on this contract are pretty low. I kinda wish we had friendly wager and pinned threads just for forecasts specific enough to be fairly evaluated.

    Over TH2’s contract, the projected avg team salary is ~$115 million, $100m ex a team full of mins. TH2 will avg $16.8m over replacement $ during that time. A typical year will produce ~350 of total VORP in the league, or 11.7/team. TH2 needs to be 16.8% of that to meet his K value, or 2 VORP per year. This includes everything: time missed from injuries, going on the lam to Chicago, whatever. His BPM improved a lot recently, and he is only 25. On the other hand, he has played 6500 minutes and hasn’t yet cracked 1.0.

    8+ VORP over four years is hardly impossible for TH2. Over the last four years, guys who have done this include Wesley Matthews and Danny Green. TH2 does a lot of things those guys can’t, and may have one the quickest releases in the NBA. But I don’t think his decision making or defense has improved nearly enough to get him there, and I doubt his scoring efficiency will be as good as it would have to be to make up for it. Guys who missed this hurdle in the last four years include Teague, Beal, DeRozan, Harrison Barnes, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, Oladipo and Khris Middleton.

    Sure, VORP is at best a rough proxy for production, but it’s better than most alternatives. Are you willing to you restate your forecast to say TH2 will produce at least 2.0 VORP per year over the 3 or 4 years of his deal? I would take the under. We can call it a push if his production looks weak but they trade him for positive value in year 1 or 2.

    http://bkref.com/tiny/5UYB7

    So this is the list of guys who had a VORP of 8 or greater over the past four seasons. Just looking at the names there, I’m confident about TH2’s ability to up his game and belong in a group like this over 4 years. I really like what I’m seeing from him so far.

    IMO Hardaway has improved since he was with the Knicks the first time, but he still doesn’t do enough of the other things beside scoring to be considered a “plus” player or signing. In terms of team construction, the Knicks needed another scorer to go along with KP after losing Melo and Rose. So he’s kind of an essential cog on the team right now (unless of course you want the offense to suck as much as the defense). The need for scoring to take some pressure off KP is probably why they are also considering starting Kanter over Willy and McBuckets over someone like Thomas or Lee. You do sort of need at least 3 scorers on the court to function fairly well unless you have some super freak like Westbrook.

    Im concerned about Frank because he’s had a “minor” problem with the same knee for how long now, and has missed just about every game he could play in. Sounds Metsian to me. I’m dreading the day I see a headline about knee surgery to repair a “slightly” torn meniscus or something and will be out 6 to 8 weeks in perpetuity.
    Hope it’s nothing though.

    As for Z man saying he wants no part of Beasley, I agree. Finally get rid of melo and now we have a deranged homeless man’s version of him. Why?

    McBuckets, Dotson, Lee and Frank should get all of the SF mins. Lance Thomas can do his scrappy thing in practice.

    @12

    Maybe that means we’re picking up Felder?

    @5 So you’re saying if Baker learns to shoot and penetrate he will make a nice pg. Well so would I for crying out loud. Baker can do his Scrappy stuff with Lance in practice until his ridiculous contract is up.

    I’m not going to defend Lance’s overall game or even call him a top defender, but he’s one of the better defenders on the team along with Noah and Baker. After that it’s like wandering in the desert looking for water. Maybe Nitti and Dotson can be added to that list, but I haven’t seen enough.

    I like what I’ve seen of THj’s improvement so far but he still seems to be getting lost on a lot of possessions. He was talking a lot to the other guys though, so maybe that’ll improve as familiarity improves. Don’t think he’ll be worth his contract but he’s a nice addition otherwise.

    Wish we’d dump Beasley but I kinda like having someone on the team to hate on. I recognize that’s selfish..

    I’m pretty agnostic on this THJ signing by now. I actually think he might just live up to the contract, or close enough that it’s just a minor overpay.

    Young good shooting guards are just not that common anymore. If you run a B-R search for guards 25 or under who played >1500 minutes and posted as high a VORP as Timmy (0.9), you only get a few guys — Kyrie, Beal, McCollum, Tyler Johnson, KCP, Elfrid Payton, Gary Harris, Marcus Smart, and THJ. All of those guys have either gotten paid already or are about to.

    If you change the search to having a WS/48 >0.1, the list is even shorter — Kyrie, Beal, McCollum, Tyler Johnson, Gary Harris, THJ, and that’s it.

    We all remember how awful Timmy was in terms of shot selection and defense when he was with us the 1st time, but he’s gotten better.

    @5 So you’re saying if Baker learns to shoot and penetrate he will make a nice pg.

    Sure, that’s exactly what I said lol. I’m just going by Hornacek’s affinity for Baker and the high praise fpr Ntilikina. Notice I had outplay in quotation marks..

    @16 you’re right. It’s just that as a pro tanker and pro youth mover, I do not care about the defense Thomas provides.

    @16 you’re right. It’s just that as a pro tanker and pro youth mover, I do not care about the defense Thomas provides.

    If my goal was to try to win 30 to 35 games, I’d run out Sessions, Hardaway, Lee, KP and Willy for 30 mins, with Oquinn, Lance, Kanter, Frank and Noah as the top subs.

    I couldn’t agree more about Beasley. Why is he here? He started the game engaged on defense and then checked out in the second half. His D is incredibly soft; he hangs out as close to the basket as he can to get rebounds that often do not come b/c the team is playing 4 on 5 on defense. Then he barks at guys (happy to note that THJ barked at him last night to pass the ball), picks up a silly T, sulks on the bench, etc.

    If he sticks and gets playing time, I can only guess that he’s the commander of the tank, Baron von Beasley. But he sets a really bad example for the young guys.

    Jack? Favor to an agent (maybe Beasley is, too)? I know, I’m grasping for straws.

    Gary Payton 2 is now on the market… he had pretty good college numbers. If we can’t get stars, maybe we can at least get the sons of former stars?

    commander of the tank, Baron von Beasley

    This is pretty good. I want him to start wearing a Kaiser helmet.

    We should sign GP2 and Felder. Just stockpile shitty young PGs and hope one of them takes a leap

    I think that they’ll just roll with Frank, Sessions, and Ron. Anyone else would just be going to Westchester.

    Surely Jack will be gone when Noah’s suspension is over? Surely?

    @24
    Kaiser helmets (at least the ones with the spikes) were more WWI than WWII panzer commanders. No matter, Beasley in a kaiser helmet probably wouldn’t raise any eyebrows.

    Dress him up like Rommel and enjoy the tank?
    🙂

    I hope they start McD, who’s at least fun to watch.
    Lee and Thomas are just depressing.

    I hope they start McD, who’s at least fun to watch.
    Lee and Thomas are just depressing.

    I agree, play guys who at least have a chance to get better. McBuckets may not, but it’s a pretty sure bet that we’re seeing peak Lance Thomas and Courtney Lee (and Beasley for that matter)

    The Knicks not cutting Jack makes me worry Frank will be out a while. There is no reason to keep him if we have three healthy PGs but if we only have two then keeping Jack for insurance makes sense.

    Do we think Frank will be ready by the opener, by Halloween, by thanksgiving?

    Beasley is one of those guys that looks OK on stats and some advanced stats metrics. But once you watch him play enough you see why he can’t stick anywhere and why we got him so cheaply. I said at the time he was a pointless signing. He won’t stick.

    Jack doesn’t have enough left in the tank to be on an NBA team. ..not even ours.

    Jack = done
    Beasley = too frustrating
    Thomas = just bad

    I’d love to see these cuts, but they won’t happen. We’re already stuck with the “vet presence” of Lee, Noah, and O’Quinn, which is more than enough.

    Baker’s really confusing. He’s not enough athlete to play point guard, but he passes better than pretty much everyone on the team. Oh and he can’t seem to shoot. A Baker/TH2 backcourt would be such an effing mess… Baker and Frank might be a workable combo, though.

    Do we think Frank will be ready by the opener, by Halloween, by thanksgiving?

    Barring some unforeseen setback, both Frank Ntilikina (knee) and Kristaps Porzingis (hip) will play in the Knicks' season opener Thursday.— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) October 14, 2017

    Jeff Hornacek says if this was the regular season, both Frank Ntilikina and Kristaps Porzingis would probably play tonight.— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) October 13, 2017

    Maybe the Knicks can make the crazy villain factor work with Beasley? Start him against OKC and have him taunt Melo and run some one on one plays for him. Try to lure Melo into that ego mode that we’ve seen him go into from time to time.

    The Knicks will still get blown out, of course. Westbrook will probably get a quadruple double, something like 40-12-15-10 (steals). Add 20% to those numbers if Jack gets significant PG minutes.
    🙂

    There is no reason to keep him if we have three healthy PGs but if we only have two then keeping Jack for insurance makes sense.

    Unless we run out three guards occasionally. Or think it’s unlikely that Sessions stays healthy all season. Or Perry thinks Mills was crazy to give Baker that contract. Or whatever else. We don’t have a clear starter or a clear backup at pg, and the only one we can have faith will stay healthy is Baker, who’s coming off an injury. There’s no reason to keep Jack instead of signing Felder, but there’s plenty of reasons to hold onto a fourth pg.

    “If we can’t get stars, maybe we can at least get the sons of former stars?”

    Why not? Sounds about as good of a plan as the Knicks have had in say 20+ years
    A competent point guard seems too much to ask for.

    It would be nice if Frank could actually get on the court and stay there so we get an extended look at what we have. Everything about him good and bad seems like mostly conjecture up until now. I have no idea how he will turn out at this point. I will say the fact that he can’t get on the court for consistent minutes is not a positive (other than it helps the tank I suppose).

    In case you haven’t seen it, Zach Loee just predicted the Knicks wiil finish last in points allowed per possession. It could be.

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