Knicks Morning News (2017.07.27)

  • [SNY Knicks] Melo still focused on being traded to Rockets, not Cavs
    (Wednesday, July 26, 2017 2:05:14 PM)

    A trade for Cavaliers PG Kyrie Irving seems unlikely given the fact that SF Carmelo Anthony is still focused on being traded to the Houston Rockets, per ESPN’s Ian Begley.

  • [NYDN] Derrick Rose as 6th man can be game changer – If Cavs keep Kyrie
    (Wednesday, July 26, 2017 12:56:31 PM)

    Despite Kyrie Irving’s wishes, the Cavaliers do not have to trade him this year.

  • 105 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2017.07.27)”

    Melodrama really HAS gone quiet.

    Looking at the Knicks salary sheet – if Melo opts out next year, we’ll have basically a max salary slot with ~32MM in space if I’m looking at it correctly. The cap websites don’t have Baker and Dotson on the books yet, but their salaries will probably be roughly offset by KOQ opting out (and of course Baker could opt out too). So unless we really love the deal and it brings us a young wing with upside at a reasonable cost (ie. Harkless) and pick(s), I’d think long and hard about just bringing Melo back and hoping he opts out next summer to join the banana boat buddies. It wouldn’t be like Melo to give up guaranteed $ that way, but he will have made about $235MM in on-court earnings by next summer (and who knows how much more off-court) — maybe for once he will choose happiness over $.

    he’ll likely stay and opt out if Rockets still interested but by then Lebron, Dwade and CP3 are all free agents… Bosh might even make a come back.. truly banana boat

    If Melo stays, Dolan and Co will spend the season s…. his d… to opt in for 18-19.And TBF nobody will give Anthony 29mil $ for 18-19.So, unless LeBron goes apeshit and tries to create Team Banana Boat to fight GSW, Anthony will be a Knick for 18-19.

    Melo’s been subjected to such a hostile work environment though… NBA holdout… this is going to court…

    Even if Melo opts in, stretching $28MM over 3 seasons is more palatable than over 5 if we did it this year. In that setting we’d still have 22+MM in space, which is enough to really do something next summer since there will be very limited space out there — whether to sign FAs or to sell the space for assets.

    That would be a REALLY interesting game of chicken next summer with Melo hoping we buy him out. He’d probably opt in, but next year might be his last chance to play on the banana boat and/or get his last multi-year contract.

    Melo got booed last year at the Garden because the crowd was sick of his ISO bullshit, especially late in games. In a morbid way I’d love to the crowd react to him as he plays out the string in New York purely because he can’t say no to money.

    maybe for once he will choose happiness over $.

    It’s not really money over happiness. He’s happy in NY.

    Is money over winning and we all know which one he’s going to choose…

    Even if its all about the money for Melo, I think he would opt out. Look at what Zach Randolph just made this off season. Dudes with Melo’s rep at his age can still command 10 to 15 million a year. He could probably snag a 3 year, 12 million a year contract from wherever and end up making more money over that time than in one year with the Knicks if he opts in. So I could see a situation where him, LeBron, CP3 and Wade (and Bosh possibly) all Banana Boat it with say, The Lakers, and each take 10 to 12 million a year to make it happen for say 3 years.

    Frank, Ron Baker is also going to opt out after he goes crazy scrappy high bball IQ nuts this year, and leaves for the Wichita banana boat with Cleanthony Early and Xavier McDaniel

    I know past predicts future performance, but I really doubt Melo opts in if he isn’t traded. If so for no reason other than, as Swift says, he can get a 3-year 45 mil deal somewhere – and he IS about the money, and he will want that locked in. I just hope the Knicks will have learned enough not to give it to him.

    melo’s not opting of 1 year for 27 mil to take a 3 year 36 – 45 mil contract; he’s too smart for that. It would take something like, at least, 3 / 60 mil for it to make sense for him when you consider PV vs FV and what he can get on the open market.

    Looking at the Knicks salary sheet – if Melo opts out next year, we’ll have basically a max salary slot with ~32MM in space if I’m looking at it correctly.

    Which we’ll promptly use to re-sign Ron Baker after he opts out.

    the cap situation is actually pretty interesting because KP will expire in 2019. If Melo stays and opts out, he would free this max salary slot before the Knicks have to re-sign him (and Willy in 2020). If he stays and doesn’t opt out, the Knicks are stuck in a very shitty situation where just as his contract expires, KP’ s probable extension kicks in taking up most of that space.

    The good part about it is that once Willy is up for his extension, both Noah and Lee’s contract will expire, so the Knicks should have good cap space in 2020 again unless something stupid happens.

    If the Knicks do trade for Kyrie, it’s safe to assume he’ll decline his player option for 19-20 and re-signing him would pretty much fill the space voided by Noah and Lee.

    That means that if the Knicks get Kyrie, there’s very little chance they’ll be able to have cap space anytime soon, since he’ll surely get an offer higher than the 31 million freed up by Noah and Lee.

    @ 11 – Its still more money overall, though, and make no mistake…if the Banana Boat ACTUALLY happens its gonna be a HUGE media and marketing event. Those dudes will make so much money off of that because it will be a BIG DEAL especially if they make it to the Finals or WCF against Golden State. The greatest team of the modern era vs. The Banana Boat made up of some of the greatest players of this generation? It will be a HUGE deal for the NBA and what’s better for the BB is that because they are older they would still be considered underdogs to Golden State, so people aren’t gonna hate on them like they did the Heat or Durant going to Golden State. The marketing and money making potential of a Banana Boat, especially if its say, the Lakers (with Ball as their PG) would be HUGE.

    Those dudes will make so much money off of that because it will be a BIG DEAL especially if they make it to the Finals or WCF against Golden State

    I am seeing Gabrielle Union and not Carmelo in this photo. What am I missing?

    I love the thought of those four making a geriatric superteam with contracts that extend close to their age-40 seasons.

    Hell, I wouldn’t bet on Golden State being an insurmountable obstacle to talented opposition in just 3 years. Wade already sucks. Why would he be worth any kind of money above the minimum 3 years from now?

    I think everything is quiet on the Melo front because LeBron is trying to work out the terms of a deal where Melo and Bledsoe come to New York. Melo isn’t going to Houston. I think Steve Mills made that clear in his press conference considering that he has no desire to take back Ryan Anderson and nobody else in the NBA is willing to do it either. The only problem is Melo won’t go to Cleveland if he’s not a starter, so Kevin Love would have to leave too, and that brings me to my trade machine trade of the day:

    In this trade, Phoenix also receives the New York top 5 protected 1st rounder (in a draft that boasts 5 franchise talents) and Cleveland receives a 1st round pick from Charlotte. It hurt my soul to not get MKG back in that deal as MKG is the exact player we need to put next to KP, but I think without a doubt everybody comes out a winner in this trade. Kyrie Irving and Marvin Williams would be our starters at the 1 and 3 and we also regain close to $10M in cap space going into the season. Cleveland picks up MKG, Bledsoe, O’Quinn, a 2018 1st round pick and Melo after giving up Love and Irving. They’re getting comparable value on offense while upgrading their defense and getting TT a better back up. Cleveland would be 10 deep with Bledsoe, Smith, LeBron, Melo, Thompson, Rose, Korver, MKG, Frye, and O’Quinn. Phoenix gets a good pick in return for Bledsoe and doesn’t take back any long term salary, and they instantly become the worst team in basketball so they have a great shot at the #1 overall pick (who could be the Arizona born Marvin Bagley). Charlotte becomes a top 4 playoff team with a starting five of Walker, Lee, Batum, Love, and D12, and they did it all without having to give up Malik Monk.

    I don’t think the Banana Boat actually happens. I think LeBron, Melo, and D Wade go to LAL next season because the Lakers have a boatload of cap space and I believe they all own homes there, but CP3 stays put in Houston after Lonzo Ball wins rookie of the year.

    @17 I’d do that if the pick was top 15 protected and we got Felder instead of Phoenix getting him.

    Phoenix needs somebody to play point guard next season. Trading Bledsoe and landing Shump, Felder, Jaramaz, and a 1st round pick is what you need to do for the 4th team in a deal that is receiving the worst deal in terms of immediate assets.

    OK, so we send them Baker 🙂
    I have an irrational hankering for Felder

    Kyrie had been living in Cleveland too long. He clearly wants to come to NY for non-basketball related reasons. JR Smith probably been feeding him all his coked out club night stories.

    Kyrie Irving “very badly” wants to join the New York Knicks.

    Reminder that this is a guy who allegedly believed the earth is flat, and that LeBron James, participant in 7 straight Finals, was not worthy of being a #2 for.

    Yeah, that’s about right. #knicksy

    I promised myself I wouldn’t get into the fake trade process, but how about this:

    NYK receives: Kyrie, Brandon Knight, Shump, whichever is worse of 2018 PHX and PHX-owned Miami 1st rounder (figure the worst would be in the 15-20 range)

    Cleveland receives: Melo, Bledsoe, Courtney Lee

    PHX receives: Kevin Love

    Obviously we take on 2 bad contracts but get the best asset (Kyrie) and a moderately valuable 1st rounder back.

    Cleveland gets the best haul (but also sends out the best individual asset). Bledsoe/Lee/JR/Melo/LBJ/Korver/RJeff/Rose/Frye is pretty good as a rotation.

    PHX gets off Brandon Knight’s contract, essentially sends out 2 years of Bledsoe, 3 years of bad Brandon Knight contract and gets Love for 3 years+.


    I would probably like even Evan Turner better than Brandon Knight, but well… a terrible trade is very likely right around the corner.

    Hubert, thanks for sharing that article. Maybe Melo doesn’t opt out after all…though I think he could get a 3-year deal from 45-60 mil vs. being stuck on a team where he was booed at home every game despite 27 mil, he’d still do it.

    Playing on the same team as LeBron James is more than just wearing the same uniform. LeBron has made Cleveland bend over backwards time and time again to appease him and it’s damn how everybody else on the roster feels. LeBron James the GM is helped greatly by the fact that he plays on whatever team he makes decisions for. The Cleveland front office is worse than our front office, and I see why Kyrie wants out.

    Of course coming to New York isn’t the smartest thing to do, but this is probably the best situation for a guy like Kyrie when you account both on and off the court reasons. Kyrie is one of the faces of Nike, and he won’t keep his signature sneaker if LeBron leaves town because nobody is going to care about a middling Cavaliers team. Coming to New York he will be the star of the show and he will play with what could eventually turn into the greatest European front court ever. That gives his brand some stake in Europe if/when KP and Willy Hernangomez turn into star players, and even more so if France’s Frank Ntilikina develops into a player. His father is from the Bronx and Kyrie himself has friends from the Bronx. On top of all of that, Kyrie, KP, TH2, and Willy Hernangomez have as good a shot as anybody to be a great team in the East in the post-LeBron era.

    On a different note, if the Knicks stumble and Hornacek gets fired, Mark Jackson will be our next head coach. Steve Mills tried to get Phil Jackson to hire him in 2014.

    Frank, I think Cleveland absolutely needs better and younger assets if they’re losing Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. That’s why I suggested a 4 team trade with Charlotte so they could receive MKG along with Bledsoe, Melo, and Kyle O’Quinn.

    Kyrie isn’t coming because Melo wants Houston. Cleveland and NY can work out whatever deal they want, he’ll just nix it.

    Melo to Lebron: “Should I waive my no-trade clause to come to Cleveland? Say ‘Banana Boat’ if the answer is no”

    LeBron to Melo: “Banana Boat”

    @17 – You lost me when you traded away Knick picks and kids. I would rather stand pat and nail Melo’s ass on to the end of the bench.

    @ 26 – Jowles the fact that he no longer wants to play with LeBron doesn’t mean shit. He knows LeBron is leaving. He knows that if he stays the Cavs will suck post LeBron bc they traded everything to appease LeBron. He also knows as currently constructed the Cavs can’t beat the Warriors. He’s still very young and wants to be the main man on another team. The Knicks are a good choice for him bc of KP. Irving and KP could be a great pair and we have other younger pieces that that grow around him. Plus he’s from NYC area.

    To call him a loser (which is basically what you are saying) because he wants to leave the Cavs is dumb. They got their title. Their time is coming to an end. He doesn’t want to be the one left standing when the game of musical chairs ends.

    I’m not advocating a Irving trade but to question his character or desire to be a winner bc he wants to leave LeBron is dumb. LeBron is leaving Cleveland and even if he stays they can’t beat The Warriors anyways. A team like The Knicks, in 3 or 4 years with the young players we have, could be a good team with Irving and by then the warriors might be coming to an end.

    Miami went to the Finals 4 straight times and yet LeBron and Wade and Bosh were ready to break it up after they lost to the Spurs. Championship teams have a life span and eventually that life span wears out.

    Lol you’re worried about Jaramaz and a 2018 1st round pick when we keep Hernangomez, Ntilikina, KP, and Dotson?

    That is a very small price to pay for one of the 6 or 7 best point guards in the NBA.

    Frank, Brandon Knight tore up his knee last week. He’s out for the season.

    @36 – No. I’m worried that we will be better than the worst. I want ping-pong balls.

    Let this sink in: We are not winning a championship in the next 2 years. Period. Underline that. Put it in bold. Take out your highlighter and mark it up. 0% chance – no matter what Vegas says.

    What I want, and it’s the only thing I want, is to collect picks, be as bad as we can be so we can get more ping-pong balls, and hope that management drafts the right players. Anything that improves the Knicks on the court is a negative. Anything that results in us losing a young player or a draft pick is a negative.

    I’m all aboard the tank-train.

    By the way, I don’t mind Frank’s trade. I’ll take back an injured Brandon Knight because we’re also getting a pick.

    If I’m Steve Mills, I look at the 3 years left on Brandon Knight’s 5/$70,000,000 contract, his torn ACL, and his pedestrian career stats, and say “but he’s only 25.”

    Trading Kyrie is a smart move for Cleveland if they do it properly, but they’ll probably fuck it up. But this is obviously their last shot, so try to do something like Kyrie to Miami for Winslow & Dragic (and maybe one of their other fringe guards). If Winslow can bounce back you’ll probably be better this season, and you can deal Dragic next year for some sort of asset when you’re rebuilding around whatever you can get for Love & Thompson, and you’ve got a potentially good young player in Winslow

    The Knicks have been bad for a long enough time since Mills joined the FO officially. In that time, we have picked up Kristaps Porzingis, Willy Hernangomez, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Frank Ntilikina. Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle O’Quinn, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Willy Hernangomez will be too productive next season in a watered down Eastern Conference for the Knicks to be a bottom five team. We have to face that reality now. The Milwaukee Bucks were a terrible team and Giannis was so good he elevated them to a #6 seed in the Easten Conference.

    Once you come to the conclusion that I have (the Knicks are currently somewhere between a 31 and 39 win team this season), you start to see less value in that first round pick. The Knicks are an anti-tanking organization. We’re going to have a winning record in April and it will move us from #4 to #9 just like that. Is the #9 pick and Ognjen Jaramaz worth keeping Kyrie Irving away from New York? Of course it isn’t. Kyrie Irving represents this team’s best chance to improve over the next few seasons.

    The truth is nobody outside of the Bay Area is winning an NBA Championship next season. The Knicks should be thinking about 2020, and in 2020 I’ll take a 28 year old Kyrie, a 22 year old Frank Ntilikina, a 28 year old TH2, a 26 year old Hernangomez, and a 25 year old Kristaps Porzingis nucleus over pretty much any team I believe the Knicks are able to field at the current moment.

    I don’t entirely disagree with your post but

    LeBron James the GM is helped greatly by the fact that he plays on whatever team he makes decisions for.

    Also, the team that he plays on is helped greatly by the fact that he plays on whatever team he GMs for. He is one of the few players that you go deep into luxury tax for, because you may never sniff a guy of that talent again, much less have him as a Hometown Hero who can sell tickets beyond any realistic bar.

    @41 The Cavs will absolutely mess up. Their front office is worse than ours.

    The Knicks have been bad for a long enough time since Mills joined the FO officially. In that time, we have picked up Kristaps Porzingis, Willy Hernangomez, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Frank Ntilikina. Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle O’Quinn, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Willy Hernangomez will be too productive next season in a watered down Eastern Conference for the Knicks to be a bottom five team.

    Please just stop it. This was the exact same argument made last offseason about why a team led by Melo, KP, Rose, Noah and Lee would be a playoff caliber squad. You don’t know anything about how this team gels and develops together moving forward. KP still has to prove he’s durable enough to carry a team for an 82 game season as the main scoring option and no established PG. Ntilikina hasn’t even played one game in a Knicks uniform.

    We need to stop rushing into things and just take the time to see how things fall for one season before moving forward.

    Jowles, a big reason LeBron came back to Cleveland is because he wanted more power in Miami and Riley refused to give it to him. LeBron runs that team, and he runs it the way a lot of other short-sighted GMs have ran their teams. He didn’t go full Billy King, but the Cavs are not equipped to deal with life without him. We saw this story unfold before and they used consecutive top five picks on Dion Waiters and Anthony Bennett. I applaud Kyrie for wanting to get out of Ohio.

    @43 – Good points. it’s hard to argue with that. Every other team in the NBA would likely put up with LeBron the GM to have Lebron the player on their team. I’m not a huge fan of him personally, but I’d like him a lot more if he was on the Knicks. With all his faults, he’d be an upgrade over most if not all of the GM’s they’ve had recently.

    Frank, Brandon Knight tore up his knee last week. He’s out for the season.

    Yes – we’d have to waive the physical of course.

    The point isn’t to get Brandon Knight the player. The point is to take on a bad contract as penance for getting Kyrie.

    “the Cavs are not equipped to deal with life without him.”
    I don’t think this concerns LeBron at all

    That team, too, was too good to land a top pick in a loaded draft class. It has nothing to do with if KP will develop into a star and more to do with the fact that we have too much talent to out-suck organizations like Phoenix, Orlando, Dallas, the Lakers, Sacramento, and Chicago.

    If it were draft night and the Cavs called New York and said give us Melo, the #8 pick and the #58 pick for Kyrie Irving would you have said no? You’re looking at a similar situation. As long as this team employs Willy Hernangomez, Courtney Lee, Tim Hardaway Jr, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyle O’Quinn it is going to be very difficult for us to be a sub 25-win team.

    That team, too, was too good to land a top pick in a loaded draft class.

    We were 5 losses away from Lonzo Ball in a season where we didn’t try to tank at all. Hell, we were 3 wins ahead of the Sixers – a team that played without Simmons for the entire season, traded Noel by the deadline, and had Embiid for just half the season every other game. And, again, we didn’t try to tank like some of the teams ahead of us.

    @47, LeBron is doing with Klutch Sports to the Cavs what CAA did to the Knicks. And we had a winning record in the Melo-era before Phil got here. It’s the same shit, bro. LeBron James is just the best player on the planet and Melo is Melo.


    And Miami, rebuilding ever since James left, promptly spent every penny they had on world beaters like Waiters, Olynyk and James Johnson to maybe reach a 6th seed in the east, 3 years after, and are bound to still be in a much worse position than they were with him 4 years from now, even while having most of their picks and a pretty clean slate.

    Any team in the NBA would mortgage its future for Lebron, he’s just that kind of player.

    Irving is not that kind of player, yet seems to believe he is. Cleveland should mortgage their future to build around James, not around Kyrie. Hes in for a pretty rude awakening if he’s under the impression that he can replicate James’ impact on a franchise.

    If you have a player like James the present should be the only thing that matters. Cleveland made poor decisions with or without him.

    @42 – We’re not a 30 win team. Even though 30 is a bad win total, we’ll be worse once we jetison Melo. We can be 2016-17 Nyets bad. And that’s good. So no-way-Jose. I’m standing pat or, at best, trading for cheap, young players and picks, picks, picks.

    @51, The Knicks aren’t about to tank, though. You know that. They will try to win every game possible because that’s what the Knicks do, and young players improve. It’s a safe bet to assume Willy Hernangomez stops turning the ball over so much and improves his scoring efficiency. It’s a safe bet to assume KP gets better, and that TH2/Lee are better this season than Melo/Lee were (just because Melo was awful last yeat). Kyle O’Quinn is in his athletic prime.

    What sunk the Knicks last year was defense. Does this team look worse defensively than it was last year? And our offensive trio last year was Melo/Rose/KP. I think KP/TH2/Hernangomez could be better. We’re more than likely going to be bottom ten than bottom five. It is the way of the Knicks.

    @52 that’s not what Kyrie thinks at all. He thinks LeBron is getting ready to skip town and that Cleveland is a dead end, so he might as well go somewhere else and have a team built around him through his prime. In cities like Miami or New York where you can always attract free agents, a place like San Antonio where you’re a lock to win 50 games, or Minnesota with Jimmy Butler and 2021 League MVP Karl Anthony Towns that’s not a bad idea. It beats the hell out of being in Cleveland.

    The point isn’t to get Brandon Knight the player. The point is to take on a bad contract as penance for getting Kyrie.

    I don’t know if Kyrie is good enough to take on all that. It’s 2 years of maybe the 9th best PG in the NBA? What are we winning? 40-45 games?

    @55 you’re overvaluing what Melo was to the Knicks last season. He was a black hole defensively and a below-average scorer in terms of his efficiency. 25 year old Tim Hardaway Jr at $17M will probably give us more production on both ends this year than 32 year old Melo did at $24.5M.

    ..we have too much talent to out-suck organizations like Phoenix, Orlando, Dallas, the Lakers, Sacramento, and Chicago.

    I don’t know where you’re getting this from. Even ignoring the minor detail that we have no PG and those teams do, just on talent level alone we could easily be worse than all of those teams. That list of teams is exactly the group we belong with.

    it’s the overly optimistic season of predictions again it seems.

    There’s a pretty good chance that Dallas, Sacramento and the Lakers will all easily be better than the Knicks. Orlando, Atlanta, Brooklyn and Chicago will suck and that’s it for the east. Phoenix is probably going to be terrible too, so just by staying put the Knicks could have a top 5 pick, depending if Indiana is terrible or not.

    If one or two things don’t go right for this Knicks team, it’s very possible that they’ll be worse than last year.

    This same Knicks roster minus Rose and Melo is better than the team we employed last year. We underachieved as a team because those two, along with KP, did not play the roles they were supposed to.

    “If one or two things don’t go right for this Knicks team, it’s very possible that they’ll be worse than last year.”

    What a wonderful way to go into the season – so excited !

    The Knicks aren’t about to tank, though. You know that.

    The point is that we don’t have to with our current squad. Its perfectly feasible to believe we’ve either regressed or stayed the same as last year’s team which was 3 loses away from the third overall pick.

    We underachieved as a team because those two, along with KP, did not play the roles they were supposed to.

    I am no fan of Melo and Rose, but their respective WS/48 was .102 and .068. Who is going to replace that lost difference?

    @57 – DRed, I hope you meant 40-45 wins in 2 years combined.

    Amongst all PG’s, Irving was 13th in VORP and BPM last season and 9th in WS/48. He was 28th in DWS. I’m thinking 9th best PG is a stretch. Add Fultz, Ball, Fox, DSmith and Ntilikina. They might slide ahead of him soon. Let’s not think he’s going to move the needle much. The LeBron effect is profound.

    @58 – Let’s see if you can guess what the Melo impact on the team record was. After you guess, read this article: Knicks record without Melo
    I’ll accept your humble correction after you’ve read it.

    Carmelo Anthony’s .089 will be replaced by Tim Hardaway’s .107. Derrick Rose’s .068 could honestly be replaced by Chasson Randle and Frank Ntilikina or whoever replaces Melo’s contract.

    [sorry, I tried to fix the link in my post above, but I flubbed it a few time. It’s fixed enough now.]

    We have no damn clue what our team will look like in October. We may or may not start the season with Kyrie, Frank, Melo, Lee, and O’quinn. We may have Ty Lawson, Ryan Anderson, Shane Larkin, Nerlens Noel, Burke, or a million other scenarios.

    We can be tanking, or winning-now.

    Since management is largely the same, I assume we will still want to put butts in seats and work hard to sign Kyrie Irving. Don’t be fooled by the press conference. I can’t find it now, but Mills said basically the same words last time around in 2007 or so.

    Bro the Cavs are 4-23 without LeBron in the three years since he came back. Does that mean a team built around Love, Thompson, and Irving would be a bad team?

    I’m pretty sure the Knicks are going hard for Kyrie, yes.

    At this point separate deals for Melo and Kyrie seem to be a likely outcome, and it’s also probably the worst possible outcome, meaning it would require extra assets to get Kyrie from Cleveland.


    it probably means exactly that, yeah. Not a 4-23 level team but certainly not good at all.

    Or we could just flip the awesome assets we get back from the Melo deal for Kyrie.


    By win shares, we are losing Melo (4.7), Rose (3.0), Holiday (2.5) and Jennings (1.5 as a Knick) and gaining THJ (4.8). That leaves us with about 7 fewer wins than last year, which would put us at 24. 24 wins would have tied Phoenix for the second-worst record last year.

    However, it’s unlikely we fall that far, since we’ll be adding players in the Melo trade, while the East is weaker than last year.

    @69 – Not a championship challenging team, no. And yeah, that’s evidence that they’ll suck without LeBron – damning evidence.

    BTW, LeBron’s imminent departure next year is clearly one of the reason why Kyrie wants to bolt now.

    Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and Kevin Love had WS/48s of .170, .149, and .163. They had WP48 of .117, .228, and .163. Are we sure those three guys minus LeBron wouldn’t be a playoff team?

    Carmelo Anthony’s .089 will be replaced by Tim Hardaway’s .107. Derrick Rose’s .068 could honestly be replaced by Chasson Randle and Frank Ntilikina or whoever replaces Melo’s contract.

    Chasson Randle? Did you see him play in the Summer League? Also, you’re betting against the odds with Frank, BTW. Do you know how many rookies in the past 3 seasons had at least a WS/48 of .068 with at least as many Minutes Played (2082) as D-Rose gave us? Only two (KAT and Noel) and they were big men.

    the first time Lebron left the Cavs, they went from 61 wins to 19, only really losing him and Mo Williams getting injured.

    Let’s say Lebron is much less valuable now as he’s older, so he’s worthy about 10 less wins, Cleveland won 51 games last season… even if the impact is reduced by like 20 games overall, the remaining team would at most be a 39 win team. I think is safe (and probably undervaluing Lebron still) to assume he alone is worth 12 wins.

    39 wins would put them at the 10th place in last year’s eastern conference.

    When Lebron left the Heat, they went from 54 wins to 37, a 17 win difference. Yes, Bosh played half the season only, but they also added Deng, Dragic for 20 somehing games and Whiteside, who was the best player in that team for the season.

    WS had Lebron valued at around 15.9 win shares in his last year with Miami, and they won 17 games less the year after. WS has Lebron at 12.9 win shares last season.

    It’s obvious that without LeBron, the Cavs will suck.
    He’s so good that he’ll make Derrick Rose look good.
    He’s so good that he makes JR Smith look good.
    He’s so good that he makes Iman Shumpert look good.

    The Knicks without Melo but with Irving are a 25 win team.

    i think it’s a bit optimistic to project that th2 will be exactly like he was in atl here… i think it’s reasonable to expect that his ws48 will be in the 0.060 – .080 range or splitting the difference between his tenures in ny and atl…

    we are going to be bad next year…. baker/randle/frank is a frightening rotation at pg and not in a good way… it’s conceivable that none of them will be replacement level and significantly worse than rose and that’s 3900 minutes devoted to that… at best i think you can expect a push but that’s being optimistic…

    i think we are a 30 win team next year but there are enough really bad teams that i don’t think it’s safe to be tanking… along with orlando, brooklyn, atl and chicago you have the pacers, lakers and phoenix… if kp misses significant time i think we do have a shot tho…

    Back to the earlier part of the thread and the link to the espn article. I was thinking about how the different scenarios with Melo (discounting Kyrie) might work out.

    Only 9 teams are projected to have space next year. If Melo opts out then with some small trades and maybe stretching Noah we could have $40m plus. After the lakers and SAS we’re probably one of the most appealing FA destinations among teams with space as a lot of the others are small market teams no closer than us to a title.

    So in theory we could be cap-space rich in a buyers market. But then who are we buying? Russ might be the only top tier FA we stand a chance to get who isn’t way off our timeline. And that chance is minimal. After that it’s RFAs -who will be on our timeline but most get matched. So maybe some combo of Peyton or Exum and TJ Warren or Jukius Randle? All of whom would need to be overpays as RFAs.

    By contrast the rumoured Melo deal might get us Harkless on a good value deal, plus one other young asset – a pick or Hartenstein. If we push we might get Vonleh too. But we’d be out of contention for FAs.

    I don’t think the alleged Melo deal with Hou and Portland can possibly return fair value – as I’ve said many times. But as I think about it I think it might still net us at least as good a return as if he walks away next summer and we can go FA shopping. Plus there’s the risk he doesn’t opt out.

    I dunno… maybe the deal is the lesser of two evils?

    The top of next years draft looks to be very good. Because of this more teams will probably be tanking earlier than last year. We will not be one of those teams, even if we have one of the worst three records at the all-star break most likely as we are pushing towards the finish playing our best players while other teams actively tank we will watch as we climb from 3rd worst to 10th worst and get a mediocre pick. People need to drop the Doncic, Porter, Bagley fantasy and realize that we are not getting another savior in the draft. Pick 8 is probably best case scenerio unless we win the lottery.

    Also I think Melo is all but a lock to opt out next year. I’m pretty sure he wants one more big contract and next year I think he will get something in the 3 years 60 million range. If he opts in and then signs a two year contract there is a solid chance it wouldn’t actually make him more money and would give him less freedom and security. The only way he doesn’t opt out is if he sufffers a major injury or gets much worse in one year.

    Finally if Irving gets to a team he wants he will not opt out. Opting out will cost him 10s of millions of dollars because he won’t then be eligible for the mega max extension. This whole trade is him trying to avoid having to opt out and setting himself up for the payday in 2021. 160+ million for 4 years starting in 2021 is better than 120 million for 4 years starting in 2020. Whoever gets him is not trading for 2 years of Kyrie but more likely 7 years. Whether thats good or not is opinion but I think the worry of giving up assets and losing him in two years is unfounded.

    I have really mixed feelings about getting Kyrie, nonetheless, there are circumstances where I might take him. So i hereby add another fake trade. It’s actually a pair of trades, both of which are OK by the trade machine. One, trade Melo and two second round picks to the Cavs for Kyrie, Frye and Tavares. Two, the Cavs trade Love to Phoenix for Bledsoe, Knight and a pick. The Cavs get Bledsoe and Melo and three picks for Kyrie and Love and their payroll actually goes down. Phoenix gets rid of Knight and Bledsoe and gets a good player in return The Knicks get Irving for someone they want to move and two picks that probably replaceable through purchase.

    You could substitute Felder for Tavares or Chandler for Knight and the deals still work

    Melo’s choice of whether to opt in or not is not as simple as saying “which way will I make more money”.

    There’s no way of knowing what the next contract will look like. It depends on how he plays this year and whether he stays healthy. If you think you are on a decline or more likely to be injured, you may be better off opting out and locking in more total money at less per year while the going is still good because you may not even get another contract if you opt in. If you think you are healthy and have a few good years left, you can opt in make more money up front, then get another good contract.

    @81 – I would be OK as buyers next season.

    If we can get another pick for next year in a Melo trade (which we must), I would think that next year could be a year we can try and ascend. We have to hope that Ntilikina, in year 2, might rise to serviceable. With three number-1’s in two years, some of which will be good or better (keep your fingers crossed), we would have a solid young core. I like our picks from this year too but they all need to be seasoned.

    With a solid young core it makes sense to sign one or two major free agents and start competing for real.

    By the way, I think there’s a chance that Melo doesn’t get traded and finds the FA market bare after another horrific season. His agents warn him about that ESPN article up there and he decides to opt in for the big pay day. I’m fine with that as long as we are one of the three worst teams this year. That’s the goal … for the draft pick.

    If Melo agrees to go to Cleveland or a 3-4 way trade is worked out and the Knicks (against my judgement) have to give up 2 assets in addition to Melo, I’d rather give up 2 first round picks than Frank and/or Willie. Adding Kyrie to KP, Willie, THJ, Frank etc… is going to create a pretty good team. The value of those future picks is likely to be lower than Frank/Willie. However, they should protect them at some level in case their are injuries and the year falls apart.

    I’d still rather hold firm at Melo plus one 1st round pick, but I don’t think that gets it done and I think management will be willing to part with two assets.

    I made a mistake, the Cavs payroll doesnt actua?ly go down, but it doesnt go up much either

    “I’d still rather hold firm at Melo plus one 1st round pick, but I don’t think that gets it done and I think management will be willing to part with two assets.”

    I think you’re right, let’s hope it’s not 3 or 4 additional assets (ala the original Melo trade).
    I’m also against trading the first round picks, but you may have a point that Frank and Willy may turn out to be better than what could be obtained by those future picks, it’s unknown right now. One plus of keeping a competitive team by adding Kyrie and keeping Frank and Willy is it will increase the chances that KP will be happy in NY and stay instead of getting out at the first opportunity.

    I want all our picks. I don’t want to give up KP, Kuz, Jaramaz, Wily, Frank or Dotson. We have Hardaway and Baker too. Add another top prospect or two next year. Let’s see what we have. I want to see a scrappy young team. If you’re over 25 years old you need not apply for a job.

    BTW, who wins this game?
    Ntilikina, Jaramaz, Kuzminskis, Porzingis, Hernangomez
    Baker, Hardaway, Anthony, O’Quinn, Noah

    We should show the same balls as the Warriors did in 2012 when they started a team full of rookies for one game. We should field a lineup of Willy, KP, Timmy, Dotson and Frank. They’re not all rookies but they are green as fuck and will grow together. It would be an exciting thing to watch them sink or swim as an up and coming unit.

    We should not assume that we’ll be better next season and trade picks as if their value is already diminished. Ntilikilina can start as far as I’m concerned, take a few lumps and become an excellent player for us in short time, maybe by his second year. Dotson has a skill that translates well also. Baker can become our glue guy if he can shoot like he did in college. KP is ready to emerge and Willy is not far behind him. Please let’s not sacrifice our future for a younger, shorter Melo.

    Strat, I totally agree. I proposed two second round picks because I am unwilling to give up a first or any of the young guys we already have.


    That’s my position too. We’re just about to finally start over without Melo, and the Knicks might add the PG version of Melo.

    I just hope this time the trade is not that costly.

    We have a 2018 2nd round pick which is the least favorable of CLE, ORL, HOU
    We have a 2019 2nd round pick which is the least favorable of ours or LAC
    We don’t have a 2nd round pick in 2020 or 2021.

    In other words, we have 2 late second round picks in the next 4 years.

    And why on earth are we talking about giving away picks? What’s wrong with everyone? Hoard picks!

    There is a lot of middle ground between Full Billy King and full Sam Hinkie.

    There is a lot of middle ground between Full Billy King and full Sam Hinkie.

    Who says that “the middle ground” is the naturally right course of action? A middle ground between a smart and dumb philosophy is a half-stupid result. I don’t want us to be half-smart, I want us to be smart.

    If the Cavs feel like LeBron is going to leave anyways in a year and Irving wants out, is there a Cavs, Knicks Rockets deal that could make all teams happy? Like The Rockets and Knicks each send the Cavs one first round pick plus some players, Knicks get Irving, Rockets get Melo? Cavs get a jump start on their rebuild and maybe that lets them trade LeBron to a team too later for more picks?

    I w0uld like Irving. Just not for more than one first round pick. Ideally not our 2018 first round pick. A core of Irving, Hardaway, Frank, Willie, KP, Dotson and our 2018 first round pick. I could get behind that. I think calling Kyrie a Melo version of a PG is very unfair. But at the same time, prime Melo was not the problem. It was giving up the farm to get him and then making bad moves after we got him and then resigning him that made that a mess. Plus Irving is 2 years younger than Melo was when he first came here.

    And why on earth are we talking about giving away picks? What’s wrong with everyone? Hoard picks!

    One of the most under-the-radar shitty Phil moves was when he traded a second round pick just so that they wouldn’t have to pay Travis Outlaw’s salary when they cut him to make sure that Travis Wear had a roster spot. Soo….yeah.


    Think about that second round pick that is the worst of Houston’s, Cleveland’s and Orlando’s. Almost certainly, at least one of Houston’s or Cleveland’s picks will be in the worst five picks overall, or roughly number 55 to 60. Last year, teams were selling better picks than that for, I think, two or three million dollars. I don’t mind trading that sort of pick, because it can be replaced by spending cash, and with cash that doesn’t count against the salary cap. If giving up that pick means we can trade Melo basically straight up for Kyrie, it’s probably worth it. (Although, as I said, I have mixed emotions about getting Kyrie at all, because of his defense). We also get some cap space down the road because the two other players I mentioned don’t have long contracts. I really don’t know if either team would be eager for such a swap, but it’s doable, and, on paper at least, meets the needs of both teams.


    I agree swift, my point in calling him the PG Melo is that well, Melo in his prime was a pretty good player, and he was a pretty good player for a while for the Knicks. As with potential Kyrie trades, the issue isn’t really about his game (even though both guys’ defense is below average) but that there’s a limit on how much you pay to get him before it becomes not worthy at all.

    the first time Lebron left the Cavs, they went from 61 wins to 19, only really losing him and Mo Williams getting injured.

    No, not only Mo Williams got injured, but Varejao too. And they lost Shaq and Ilgauskas, and they looked for no replacement, playing with very few bigs. So they were tanking from the start of the season, basically….

    should Knocks should have signed Rose for $5m? double the vet min

    At a fair price, Rose could be seen as an asset moving forward. Last year he was much better than the two years before, and his numbers were reasonable. However, I doubt that Rose was willing to sign a long term contracts that paid him little, and there was almost no reason to sign him 5 million for just one year. So you would have to spend more, and there lies the risk. 36 million/3 years would have been enough? That’s a cheap price in this cap, but if it does not work, you are stuck with a malcontent drawing media attention, where you should be tanking. If it works… great, you ship him to the highest bidder. However, it is moot now, and we used our cap on TH2 and Baker.

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