Knicks Morning News (2016.09.20)

  • [NY Newsday] Lou Amundson signs one-year deal with Knicks
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 4:55:00 PM)

    The Knicks are bringing back Lou Amundson.

  • [ESPN] Veteran forward Amundson re-signs with Knicks
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 5:03:30 PM)

    Veteran forward Amundson re-signs with Knicks

  • [NYPost] Lawyers want judge to unmask Derrick Rose accuser
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 7:10:43 PM)

    Lawyers for Knicks player Derrick Rose will ask a judge Tuesday to unmask the woman, referred to as Jane Doe in court files, who has accused him of raping her after she launched a “nationwide media blitz on the eve of trial.” Doe through her attorneys gave at least five interviews to major publications last…

  • [NYPost] Knicks bringing back veteran forward to fill bench void
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 2:07:09 PM)

    The Knicks re-signed veteran forward Lou Amundson. The team announced the move Monday but did not disclose terms. The 6-foot-9 Amundson has played for 10 teams. He appeared in 70 games over the last two seasons with New York. He averaged 1.8 points and 1.7 rebounds over seven minutes a game last season. Amundson provides…

  • [NYTimes] AP Sources: Bucks Agree to $100M Deal With Antetokounmpo
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 7:27:58 PM)

    The Milwaukee Bucks have agreed to a contract extension with Giannis Antetokounmpo, locking up one of the most versatile players in the NBA.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks, Lou Amundson agree to one-year deal
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 3:40:33 PM)

    The Knicks have resigned F Lou Amundson, the team announced on Monday.

  • [SNY Knicks] Realistic offensive expectations for Kristaps Porzingis
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 10:50:13 AM)

    I’m expecting Porzingis to step forward in his rebounding and overall shooting efficiency, as he won’t settle for as many shots this year.

  • [SNY Knicks] Which hungry big man will step up for Knicks?
    (Monday, September 19, 2016 8:38:27 AM)

    Between Wily Hernangomez, Marshall Plumlee and Mindaugas Kuzminskas, which player will step up from the bench?

  • 119 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2016.09.20)”

    So they resigned Lou. What does that mean for the kids like Baker, Randle and Ndour? The only good thing about signing Amundson is that he won’t whine about being one of the 3 players that don’t dress.

    Ugh…don’t get me wrong. I get why Lou was signed, and I actually love it for an end of bench vet big to show the youngins the way. My guess is that Plumlee, N’Dour and one of Baker and Randle are going to Westchester. That- I’m ok with as well. Let those guys get valuable minutes to develop. However, I’d much rather have Larry Sanders- I don’t care how much of a head case he may be. Bottom line is this: The bigs behind Noah are largely UNPROVEN. So, I’d rather have Sanders as opposed to possibly being forced to rely on Amundson if O’Quinn and Billy aren’t up to the task. We know Sanders can play, and he would come cheap. And we know he likes the peace pipe so some Zen sessions could work well for him. All jokes aside though, the possibility of having to rely on Amundson scares me. He’s good in spurts for us maxing out at 8-10 minutes a game. Other than that, I’m not sure if he’ll be valuable should we need him for a bigger role.

    Pretty sure multiple teams tried to get Sanders to come out of his early retirement this summer and he passed on it.

    My guess is that one of Marshall Plumlee and Lou Amundson will be cut regardless of the guaranteed salary. But seriously, what’s the point? Favor to the agent maybe? I get that these guys are great locker room guys, hard practicers or whatever, but when you have actual needs, like a 3rd PG behind two injury prone PGs, you can’t find a good locker room PG? I don’t know, even 100 year old Steve Blake would be preferable.

    I will be ecstatic if Randle makes the team as the 3rd PG. I really like him in the offensive system Hornacek is expected to run. I like Baker too, but unless Sasha gets cut, he won’t make the roster. As much as I dislike Sasha, he has a role, and towards the end of last season he played well with extended minutes. I’m not gonna lie though, I am rooting for Plumlee over Lou as the end of bench big because he’s a young 7 footer with a nice mix of intangibles, hustle play, and hoop IQ. He’ll probably never be anything more than a backup C/good soldier, but don’t we need one that’s young enough to develop?

    Well, here are some basic numbers for you, per b-ref:

    Average salary: $5.67M
    Median salary: $2.96M
    Courtney Lee: $11.24M

    There are 514 players under contract. Of those, Courtney Lee is owed the 45th most money in the league. He will be #91 in yearly salary this upcoming season.

    lol doesn’t answer my question about the CURRENT market. Also, doesn’t answer anything about the current SG market.

    Lee is by all accounts a hard-working, defensive-minded SG who shoots the 3 ball pretty well, and defers to other players. Last season he was on three teams, and had a TS% of 540, 556 and 551, WS/48 around .080, and 3P% of 39%. That’s an above average player. And he’s getting paid average money. Come on.

    Journeyman Courtney Lee is not the problem. He does represent the deeply flawed strategy behind PJ’s moves, though: he wants to ‘win-now’ (which is not possible for this roster) without regard for the future; long term contracts given to Noah, Lee, Thomas and Meli severely limit the team’s chances of making moves when/if the opportunity arises.

    60+ millions committed to those four players for the next 3 years means the team will suck for at least 3 more years. That’s a best-case scenario. Odds are we’ll be starting a total half-assed rebuild in two years under a new has-been GM.

    60+ millions committed to those four players for the next 3 years means the team will suck for at least 3 more years

    What about Porzingis?

    I would generally disagree about how limiting Lee and Thomas’s contracts are. Probably would agree about Noah and to a much lesser extent Melo.

    Lee is making $12MM/year which is only about 11% of the 2017 cap and of course less% as the cap increases. In the salary terms we are used to thinking about (ie. a $70MM cap), that is equivalent to roughly an $8MM contract. Those #s are easily moved, especially as the cap continues to increase — assuming of course that Lee is healthy and is reasonably productive. One might even think of Lee as a pretty good trade asset for the next 2+ seasons.

    Thomas is only 26 and is signed through what should be the end of his physical prime. He’s only making $6MM/year. He is REALLY tradeable assuming he doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin in terms of his 3 point shooting.

    The 4 year Noah contract is tough to swallow. i have no defense for that.

    One should also remember we have a few young prospects on the team with some upside even aside from Porzingis. And we have all our draft picks. So even if this particular team underwhelms, it’s not like it was a few years back.

    The 4 year Noah contract is tough to swallow. i have no defense for that.

    The only defense for that is if Noah returns to form, which is possible, but even then the length makes it likely you’re going to be stuck with a shit contract on the back end.

    Also agree that both Lee and Lance are likely movable contracts that are assets for the time being given that both had higher AAV offers this summer. With a league that loves 3 point shooting and guys that can switch on the perimeter, I have zero doubt we can trade those deals if we need to.

    What about Porzingis?

    He’s our only hope at this moment. Can’t include him in most projections because, although *very* promising, he’s still a rookie and nobody knows what type of player he will become. The others (Melo, Thomas, Noah and Lee) are known quantities.

    He’s our only hope at this moment. Can’t include him in most projections because, although *very* promising, he’s still a rookie and nobody knows what type of player he will become. The others (Melo, Thomas, Noah and Lee) are known quantities.

    Yeah, Theo this makes no sense. If you cant include the second leading scorer, and top shot blocker, then why make the projections?

    WS/48 around .080

    That’s an above average player

    One of these things is not like the other

    So even if this particular team underwhelms, it’s not like it was a few years back.

    I don’t think there is much difference in performance or outlook between this roster and those of the last 10 years.

    Here we are in 2016, hoping to make the playoffs, hoping the latest gamble with our usual reclamation projects pays off.

    Zero chance of winning anything meaningful in the foreseeable feature and hoping that our latest savior, Porzingis, overcomes all the front office’s bad moves by himself.

    I think Donnie Walsh’s pre-Melo team was the only one going in the right direction, warts and all. At least, they could be rooted for. It’s hard to root for our current ‘stars’ Melo and Rose.

    How is this team any better?

    I think Donnie Walsh’s pre-Melo team was the only one going in the right direction, warts and all. At least, they could be rooted for. It’s hard to root for our current ‘stars’ Melo and Rose.

    Sigh. You are talking in circles. Talking about a team from SIX YEARS AGO that played 60% of a season and starred a ticking time bomb, well 2 if you include Gallo. But yes. You don’t want to root for the Knicks because you don’t like Melo and Rose. Fine, but you making wacked out 3 year projections makes no sense. The Knicks have all their first round picks etc etc. Im tired you win. Its cool the knicks will suck 4eva!

    I don’t think there is much difference in performance or outlook between this roster and those of the last 10 years.
    Here we are in 2016, hoping to make the playoffs, hoping the latest gamble with our usual reclamation projects pays off.
    Zero chance of winning anything meaningful in the foreseeable feature and hoping that our latest savior, Porzingis, overcomes all the front office’s bad moves by himself.
    I think Donnie Walsh’s pre-Melo team was the only one going in the right direction, warts and all. At least, they could be rooted for. It’s hard to root for our current ‘stars’ Melo and Rose.
    How is this team any better?

    Holy hell.
    #1 – we have all our draft picks (and more! we have some of other people’s picks too!)
    #2 – we have potentially a transformative player in KP
    #3 – we have cap flexibility
    #4 – outside of Noah probably and Melo (due to NTC, not because of contract), we don’t have any immovable contracts

    so yes, other than picks, players, cap room, and salary flexibility, it’s totally the same. How did I not see that before?

    Donnie Walsh’s pre-Melo team had Amare for the 5 minutes his knees were going to last. it had Raymond Felton (fat and sucks), Gallinari (injured every 5 seconds), Wilson Chandler (average player, injured every 5 seconds), Mozgov. Let’s not forget the immortals — Extra E, Toney Douglas, Al Harrington. was the Melo trade a good trade? no. was that a fun team to root for? yes. but let’s not overstate the ceiling of that team.

    You don’t want to root for the Knicks because you don’t like Melo and Rose. Fine, but you making wacked out 3 year projections makes no sense.

    Think about ut this way: we win 35-38 games this year. How does PJ *significantly* improve the team for the following season?

    We can make the usual rosy and deluded predictions ( willie hernandezgome will become a star and so will porzingis and next year’s picks) but even if all that comes to pass, any honest projections would assume other teams will develop their own stars, too, thus keepibg us exactly where we are.

    I know, I know…only the Knicks get lucky eith their rookies and all other teams suck at talent evaluation. All things will go well for the Knicks and bad for all other teams.

    Sorry for appearing pessimistic, but we are not in a great position right now.

    With all due respect, the only “wacked out” thing around here is the mind of those who remain blindly optimistic in the face of so much failure. Total delusion

    any honest projections would assume other teams will develop their own stars, too, thus keepibg us exactly where we are.

    any honest projection would realize that there are only a select few players who are develop-able into stars and that not every team has one of them. general consensus is that KP is one of those very few players.

    there is also that matter of $25+MM in cap space. and draft picks. and trades that can be made.

    but in your pessimistic world we are not allowed to benefit from these because theoretically other teams can make trades and draft players too. Got it. It’s a wonder that every team in the league doesn’t go .500 every year.

    The Knicks are in a better position than they were when David Stern had to get involved, but that’s about it. We have Porzingis, but no other youth to speak of. We have all of our picks (for now), but are gunning for mediocrity so we’ll have to draft exceptionally well to extract the amount of value we need from them. Plenty of teams will have as much or more cap flexibility than us going forward. There’s simply not an area of team-building that the Knicks are looking good at right now.

    I hope I’m wrong. I liked it that one time the Knicks were good in my life! I swear, I root for them! I just see no plan being executed. Our best hope is the current team going to absolute shit before the big contracts become totally untradable. That’s not a good best hope.

    There is a lot of damning with faint praise here regarding the state of the Knicks. “Hey, we have all our first round picks!” Well, WHOOP DE DOO. We’re no longer hopelessly idiotic and have ascended to the lofty heights of mediocrity!

    It’s like being super excited about driving a 2006 Toyota Corolla because the power windows still work.

    but in your pessimistic world we are not allowed to benefit from these because theoretically other teams can make trades and draft players too. Got it. It’s a wonder that every team in the league doesn’t go .500 every year

    There are good and bad teams. We are one of the worst in the NBA. The results prove it. Nearly 20 years worth of data.

    There are many, many reasons to believe we’re not traveling in the right direction. You’re welcome to wear a blindfold if that makes the road look prettier. Others are entitled to a peek at reality.

    We have Porzingis, but no other youth to speak of.

    Have you looked at the roster. There are 4 30 year olds on the team. There are 7 26 and under

    so we’ll have to draft exceptionally well to extract the amount of value we need from them

    This is what every team does!

    There is a lot of damning with faint praise here regarding the state of the Knicks. “Hey, we have all our first round picks!” Well, WHOOP DE DOO. We’re no longer hopelessly idiotic and have ascended to the lofty heights of mediocrity!

    Lmao. this is ridiculous. Because if they didn’t you would have added that to the list of complaints

    This team might get out of the gate looking fairly okay. There will probably be a brief period where the Knicks play .500+ ball and Team Optimism thinks they have given Team Reality their comeuppance. But it will come crashing down before long, because it is built around the hope that aging and injury-prone players will stay healthy and productive.

    Have you looked at the roster. There are 4 30 year olds on the team. There are 7 26 and under

    Very misleading statement. We have a lot of filler material in the form of undrafted young players because our 4 30-year olds gobble up the salary cap and we have not developed or acquired any NBA- level talent in recent years (porzingis fell on pj’s lap ).

    I get that a lot of people aren’t a big fan of Carmelo Anthony’s production or playing style, but I think it’s a little weird to lump him in with Derrick Rose as being hard to root for given the vast differences in what we’ll call their summer experiences.

    porzingis fell on pj’s lap

    yes picking a player In the draft after research and scouting = falling in lap.

    (porzingis fell on pj’s lap ).

    Yeah, I forgot how that draft choice was unanimously praised and called a no-brainer selection as soon as it was made. Get real dude.

    Hey, we have lots of guys under 26! Most of them are fringe non-prospects who will never make any meaningful impact in the NBA, but you can’t deny the facts! They’re under 26!

    I get that a lot of people aren’t a big fan of Carmelo Anthony’s production or playing style, but I think it’s a little weird to lump him in with Derrick Rose as being hard to root for given the vast differences in what we’ll call their summer experiences.

    I didn’t even bring that up because, ive given up on that. He might as well be D Rose to some ppl

    Hey, we have lots of guys under 26! Most of them are fringe non-prospects who will never make any meaningful impact in the NBA, but you can’t deny the facts! They’re under 26!

    If only Phil hadn’t traded away our 2014 and 2016 first round picks. Smh.

    The guy says there’s no youth. I point out the youth and it’s now filler…..question. Was Lang Galloway filler?

    The guy says there’s no youth. I point out the youth and it’s now filler…..question. Was Lang Galloway filler?

    No, but he’s not on the team anymore. If he was, rest assured I would have counted him. Galloway played 3,500 minutes and was somewhat productive in them. If any of the new guys do that, I will count them too.

    I actually like the idea of bringing in lottery ticket-type guys instead of populating the end of the bench with retread veterans with zero upside. But let’s be realistic. Which of the group of Plumlee, Baker, Randle and Ndour is a viable prospect? I guess Baker is the most prospect-ish of the group, but he lacks the handle to play PG and it’s very questionable whether he has the outside shot to stick at SG. He also lacks athleticism, lacks lateral movement and is injury prone. And he’s the BEST prospect of the undrafted free agent group. There’s a reason he wasn’t one of the top 60 picks in a weak draft.

    The odds are that none of those guys stick. Which is fine, really. But let’s not pretend like we have some roster full of good young talent. We don’t.

    I personally think Hernangomez is a good prospect. Aside from that yes most of these guys are long shots, though that’s exactly what Galloway was and Copeland and Prigioni and Lin, all of whom were nice pieces for us to varying degrees. So I think it’s worth giving some value to the fact that the Knicks, despite making moves on which we all clearly disagree what the value is, are also still looking to mine the fields for some unpolished gems.

    and is injury prone

    How exactly is Baker injury prone? He played every game for Wichita State his last 3 seasons. The only year he missed games was his freshman year, which without looking I would guess was because he was a freshman and not because he was injured.

    You guys are hopeless, really.

    1. There is no fking “team optimism” or whatever. It sounds dumb. Everyone here agrees that this team is flawed, has done flawed things, and has a flawed future. There is no one, save maybe Reub, who thinks that this team is being constructed perfectly, and that “we have draft picks” is all we need to build for the future.

    2. If we had 7 people above 30 instead of under 26, you’d use that as evidence that we’re ‘old.’ To ignore this fact makes you biased against facts.

    3. Building with youth often means unproven talent. Deal with it.

    4. Having all draft picks, getting these undrafted or Euro guys with upside, and having a good coach IS building for the future. Youth is cheap. IT ALLOWS YOU TO GO FOR GUYS LIKE LEE AND NOAH.

    5. Having decent and hardworking guys like Lee, tough-minded and vocal defensive leaders like Noah, and trading away limited assets for future flexibility (though flawed in our case) can be building for the future.

    6. Galloway wasn’t as great as you think he was. And maybe for the chance at Westbrook, even if the chance passed, it was worth it.

    7. A KEY part of building for your future involves raising your kids in a stable and successful environment with good role models. Except for Rose, this is mostly true of the people we have.

    (Again, I agree much of what we did was flawed on some level and I am not overly optimistic. Being overly pessimistic isn’t being ‘team realistic’ to me)

    Baker missed a lot of games as a freshman with an injured foot, and played injured most of his sophomore season also. He did stay healthy his junior and senior years though.

    To the optimists:

    Who’s in a better three-year situation, the Sixers or the Knicks?

    I dunno, to which of the Sixers’ many injury-prone bigs will Bryan Colangelo give a fat contract extension in that 3 year period?

    4. Having all draft picks, getting these undrafted or Euro guys with upside, and having a good coach IS building for the future. Youth is cheap. IT ALLOWS YOU TO GO FOR GUYS LIKE LEE AND NOAH.

    No it doesn’t. Wasting money and assets on guys like Lee & Noah is why we have one good young player.

    What assets did we waste on Lee and Noah? Money sure, assets definitely not.

    Who’s in a better three-year situation, the Sixers or the Knicks?

    Impossible to say without seeing how Simmons and Embiid perform on the floor and how the rest of their picks pan out. If you want to argue that they have a significantly greater margin for error and more opportunities to hit on multiple high upside, young talents then yeah, it’s a no brainer.

    There’s a good chance that Philly builds a better team over the next 3 years, but it’s not a certainty given the variable success rates of draft picks and that Porzingis has demonstrated an ability to contribute well ahead of expectations with a seemingly high ceiling.

    I’d say the Knicks are if it’s limited to three years. They have a mix of young and old which is essential to winning in the League. Porzingis is better than any young guy on the Sixers. The Sixers also have no vets that compare to Melo and Noah

    There will probably be a brief period where the Knicks play .500+ ball and Team Optimism thinks they have given Team Reality their comeuppance.

    Mike K — serious request. We need Team Optimism and Team Reality T-shirts.

    It’s all interconnected-we needed Noah (we didn’t, really) because we traded our center. We traded our center because we have no point guards. So around and around we go. We still don’t have a point guard after this season and now we have less cap space.

    Honestly – Noah will be the bellwether player this year. He is so impactful when he is physically right. If he’s back to himself, this could be a very good year.

    I don’t get the sense that Rose will have an endless leash to chuck up shots if he’s playing badly. If he is playing like he did the last 2 seasons, we’ll probably see a lot more of Brandon Jennings than expected. Which I think is better than the rose of 2014-15 and much of 2015-16.

    Combine that with presumed improvement from KP, much improved play from Courtney Lee (as compared with Afflalo).. I still think there’s hope for this team.

    Signed,
    Frank
    Captain, Team Optimism

    We wouldn’t have had a PG after this season in the scenario where we don’t trade Rose or sign Noah. That hasn’t changed a bit and I’m not sure how you figure we have less money now than we would have otherwise unless you believe Phil wasn’t going to sign players long-term this summer in the alternate world where we don’t have Rose or Noah or Lee.

    If we don’t have Rose or Noah or Lee, maybe we could have spend that money on shorter contracts or given those contracts to younger players, if we have to spend all our available cap space.

    According to NBA Savant, he was 20-for-27 (74.1 percent) on step-backs last season. Of the 51 players who made at least 13 step-back jump shots on the season, nobody converted them at a higher rate.

    Can anyone tell me the flaw with this sort of analysis?

    Of the 38 small forwards who made at least 16 True Kobe Assists last season, nobody made more contested running floaters on a Wednesday during a waxing moon at away games 2,000′ above sea level that served kosher hot dogs while wearing Nike-brand athletic shoes that had at least three colors with none of them being black, silver or maize.

    I mean, that’s a fuckin’ superstar stat right there.

    “Can anyone tell me the flaw with this sort of analysis?”

    Absolutely nothing. It implies nothing about extrapolation or sample size, it’s merely describing an aspect of Melo’s great iso/post-up game.

    Melo sux

    Melo rulez
    (career .135 WS48)

    Knicks sux

    Knicks rulez
    (1 playoff series win in 16 seasons)

    The stat itself is irrelevant to the fact that Melo is and has been one of the best post-up players in the league for awhile. Idk why they even threw that in there.

    The annoying thing about the play type information on the nba.com/stats page is that they don’t have data yet for plays that originate out of a specific type of play but result in a quality spot-up or drive for another player. Maybe they’ll have that this year, since I think the data for scoring efficiency on post-ups, PNR ball handler and roll man or dribble hand offs without the assist or secondary assist data paints an incomplete picture.

    Melo was 4th on the Knicks in terms of points per offensive post up possession. We can toss out D Will & Lance Thomas because they didn’t post up that frequently. Melo averaged .92 points per post up. Afflalo, our most efficient scorer averaged 1.02. The next most effective Knick in the post was Robin Lopez, who averaged .89 points per post up. Did the Knicks have 3 great post scorers last season? If Robin Lopez isn’t a great post scorer, giving all his post ups to Melo instead would have gained the Knicks 7 points over the course of the season. How valuable is that? Is there even a difference between Robin Lopez & Melo in terms of post scoring?

    I’m still trying to understand how he’s “elite” in so many shot types, yet had a .474 eFG% last year. Wish I could figure that one out.

    @Jowles

    It’s almost like different shot types have different expected values, so having a high frequency of post-ups may not be as efficient as having a high frequency of spot-up looks.

    @DRed

    How many double teams were those guys drawing and how many assists did they have out of those? That’s the data that’s missing, but I’d bet money Melo’s post-ups created more spot-up looks than any of those guys. Nobody was double teaming RoLo or Afflalo and neither of those guys are good passers.

    Two weeks until preseason game #1!!!!!

    By that time, K-blogger posters will have nothing left in the tank

    Except that it’s not irrelevant. Step-backs are part of the spectrum of post-up plays.

    It’s irrelevant in that the sample size is really small. If they could go back over a larger sample it would mean more.

    The Knicks had three really good post-scorers last year.

    What’s your point?

    Would you argue that there is no difference in the caliber of defender and the amount of defensive attention that Melo and Lopez get on post-ups and how that affects the rest of the offense?

    Such a description is abstract nonsense. Basketball= Baskets, rebounds and steals.

    It’s not like any adjusted on-off stats, like ALL of THEM that show Melo having a much more positive impact on offense than Lopez, have any basis of credibility.

    Lopez was phenomenal at getting post-up position in semi-transition, but I’m probably just making all those words up.

    “I’m still trying to understand how he’s “elite” in so many shot types, yet had a .474 eFG% last year. Wish I could figure that one out.”

    We do this every year. Melo has been very-good to elite in most play types for years, but his distribution of shots errs STRONGLY towards less efficient ones.

    That’s why creating a more even distribution of shots for Melo through other ways of initiating offense leads to great offense.

    How many double teams were those guys drawing and how many assists did they have out of those? That’s the data that’s missing, but I’d bet money Melo’s post-ups created more spot-up looks than any of those guys. Nobody was double teaming RoLo or Afflalo and neither of those guys are good passers.

    This is obviously a good question. And to really get a sense of how good Melo is in the post vis-a-vis the rest of the NBA we’d need that data for all of them too. And for more than just one season. If we don’t have it, what does that article tell us? Is post scoring even that good in the modern NBA? If the Knicks had 3 elite level post scorers and were one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA what does that tell us?

    Melo has played like eighty billion minutes in the NBA. He has cracked a .500 eFG% exactly three times in thirteen seasons. He has a career .489 eFG%. I am not buying the fact that he is really a super-efficient scorer who is just done in by unfortunate circumstances. The truly efficient scorers in this league are up over .500 every year.

    Honestly – Noah will be the bellwether player this year. He is so impactful when he is physically right. If he’s back to himself, this could be a very good year.

    I don’t get the sense that Rose will have an endless leash to chuck up shots if he’s playing badly. If he is playing like he did the last 2 seasons, we’ll probably see a lot more of Brandon Jennings than expected. Which I think is better than the rose of 2014-15 and much of 2015-16.

    Combine that with presumed improvement from KP, much improved play from Courtney Lee (as compared with Afflalo).. I still think there’s hope for this team.

    Signed,
    Frank
    Captain, Team Optimism

    i haven’t chimed in too much this off season, but I find Noah to be such a terrific all around player when relatively healthy on both ends of the floor, if he holds up, there could be big things in store.

    The guy is a great passer, offensive rebounder, all around defender and screen setter, I don’t think he is given enough credit. He is a player that his whole is much greater than the sum of his parts…. a player that hasn’t been on Knick rosters in years. I am anticipating thoroughly enjoying his play.

    I just need Rose to be able to break down and collapse defenses with quickness….. I don’t need some reversion to quazi MVP Rose for the Knicks to have a successful season.

    Ruru, remember when you did research and figured out that Bargnani was an elite pick & pop player-better than even Dirk Nowtizki, but it didn’t really matter because we were talking about small fractions of difference in a shot they took like twice a game? That’s what Melo’s step back efficiency is. It’s something that happens so infrequently that even if he is really good at it relative to most NBA players it doesn’t make a meaningful difference.

    Two weeks until preseason game #1!!!!!

    By that time, K-blogger posters will have nothing left in the tank

    This is going to end in an Anchorman style dust up…

    Re Sixers and Knicks, is this a serious question? Am I Team Reality if I’d rather take my chances with the group of Embiid, Noel, Simmons, Okafor, and Saric and a bevy of draft picks and ample cap space?

    Am I Team Reality if I’d rather take my chances with the group of Embiid, Noel, Simmons, Okafor, and Saric and a bevy of draft picks and ample cap space?

    Yeh. Noel and Okafor have huge flaws in their games. Saric and Embiid have never played. Yes if you take them over the Knicks for 3 years. Good luck. Id bet my anything on that.

    Embiid has literally not played in 2 years, Saric will have the same midseason slump that KP had this past year.

    Ben Simmons wont even ATTEMPT a shot beyond 5 feet. lol

    Maybe in 5 years but not 3… hell no

    Alright, fair enough. I think their outlook 2-3 years out is a lot better than ours. But they have effed it up a few times already.

    “Translation: it’s everybody else’s fault that Melo is not an efficient scorer.”
    ” I am not buying the fact that he is really a super-efficient scorer who is just done in by unfortunate circumstances. The truly efficient scorers in this league are up over .500 every year.’

    No one is arguing that it is others fault, per se.

    And once again, no one is arguing that Melo is in the conversation with Durant, Curry, Lebron, guys who can create their own offense at the most elite rate regardless of teammates or situation. etc..

    What we are saying is that Melo has an extremely diverse and great offensive skill-set that can be LEVERAGED into higher efficiency with some basic action around him.

    When Chandler and Felton were a threatening pnr duo, Melo’s efg % jumped over .500 (with an extremely low turnover rate). A much greater percent of his shots during that period were quality spot-ups.

    When Allen Iverson was penetrating all around the court, Melo’s efg % jumped to .511 (without much of a 3-pt shot).

    Chauncey Billups was a great player because of his extreme scoring efficiency, but he wasn’t exactly the kind of player that created opportunities for Melo through penetration or pick and roll.

    For the majority of his career, Melo has been without another considerable post, pnr or penetration threat beside him to allow for a more even distribution of shots.

    That doesn’t necessarily make him LESS valuable, as his offensive abilities are always leveraged into opportunities for teammates, which is why his on-off numbers are consistently better than his individual scoring efficiency.

    If we don’t have it, what does that article tell us? Is post scoring even that good in the modern NBA? If the Knicks had 3 elite level post scorers and were one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA what does that tell us?

    I think the best way to do this would be if there’s a team that has good post scorers and efficient spot-up shooters. Maybe the Spurs last year? Idk, I’d have to look.

    What would be fun is if we could get the data from 2012/13 when we had good 3 point shooters that were able to spot-up effectively around Melo post-ups and face up isolations.

    I genuinely wish we had that data, because I think it would give us a clear answer about how viable using post-ups are in the league now.

    “Ruru, remember when you did research and figured out that Bargnani was an elite pick & pop player-better than even Dirk Nowtizki, but it didn’t really matter because we were talking about small fractions of difference in a shot they took like twice a game? That’s what Melo’s step back efficiency is. It’s something that happens so infrequently that even if he is really good at it relative to most NBA players it doesn’t make a meaningful difference.”

    Sure, but when in an anlysis/dissection of Melo’s post-up game it seems natural to mention all of his postup moves.

    The article was not about his step-backs. The portion of the article dedicated to step-backs was about as infinitesimally small as the amount of step-back shots he takes relative to all of his shots during an NBA season.

    The Spurs’ shot distribution last year was strikingly similar to the Knicks’ shot distribution. The difference was that the guys on the Spurs are good at throwing the ball in the basket.

    “No one is arguing that it is others fault, per se.”
    Spends several paragraphs explaining why it’s the others fault.
    Classic Ruru!

    I think “fault” is the wrong word. Melo isn’t as good as the top tier volume scorers. So he needs more help to approach their level of efficiency. That’s why if you look at the 3 seasons where he is over 50% efg there is a penetrating pg in common.

    Iverson along with the Felton/Kidd Chandler combo.

    Did anyone ever see the movie Groundhog Day with Bill Murray?

    I feel like I’ve seen this comment before…..

    Win total over/unders are out! Knicks open at 38.5. I guess this probably proves I’m not Team Optimism or whatever but that seems a bit high to me. We definitely could beat that number, but as a median expectation it seems a little above what I’d expect. Maybe expecting a lot of public money buying into the “super team” nonsense.

    In other super team news, Golden State over/under is 66.5, 10 wins higher than anyone else (Cavs and San Antonio at 56.5). Pretty crazy gap at the top.

    Nets at 20.5 are the lowest by several games so at least we’re the best team in NYC!

    Team Reality is like 5 wins apart from Team Optimism.

    Also a Vegas line is set generally so that they lock in profit regardless of what the result. It’s more important to see how the sharps move the line, though the sharps bet down the Knicks O/U from 31.5 all the way down to 28.5 last year and lost all of that.

    which is why his on-off numbers are consistently better than his individual scoring efficiency.

    Or that the cost of devoting so much of your limited resources to one player — due to the trade that brought him here, the trades used to bring in “talent” to keep him happy, and his mega-max deal — necessarily means that his on-off numbers will be inflated, particularly since his backup is almost guaranteed to be a late 2nd-rounder or NBDL drifter or past-prime journeyman on vet’s min.

    Linas Kleizas at $1.8M, Joey Graham at $0.88M, DerMarr Johnson at $0.86M — these are some of the greats to pad Carmelo’s on/off numbers.

    Knicks over/under set at 38.5

    I would have been comfortable with the under at 43.5. That is a really nice line by Vegas. I wouldn’t go near it. Noah somehow stays healthy and plays >70 games and Rose gets suspended and plays <25? That's a recipe for bettor's disaster.

    I am the least confident in handicapping us this year than any year I can remember, mostly because KP and Noah both have a huge reasonable range of outcomes. If forced I guess I’d take the over.

    sharps bet down the Knicks O/U from 31.5 all the way down to 28.5

    If they were really sharp they would have listened to me and taken the over

    This team might get out of the gate looking fairly okay.

    I dunno, the start of the schedule is kinda rough. I could see us opening up with 1-9 pretty easily. We can beat the Nets. I’d feel pretty okay about the Rockets too, if it wasn’t the end of a back-to-back. I think if we beat the Pistons without too much trouble then we could be much better than I’m expecting. The Jazz game is the beginning of a back-to-back for them but it’s their first game of a road trip and the next day they play the Sixers, I don’t think they’ll be pulling any punches. We play the Hornets twice in a row Nov. 25th and 26th, that might be our first real chance to string two wins together. Looks like the schedule eases up in December then clamps down again in March.

    My memory is that we always have trouble with the Hornets

    2015-16 1-3
    2014-15 1-3
    2013-14 2-2
    2012-13 2-1
    2011-12 3-1

    Which one of those five wildly different rosters are you talking about?

    Keep in mind that 3 of the Knicks’ starting 5 will be different players this year.

    I’ll put my chips on the line and take the under. Too many moving injury-related parts to account for. And D-Rose looks healthy enough to play most of his games this season and be terrible.

    Also I think you definitely take the over on GS. The only way you don’t is if Kerr starts pulling a Popovich and resting half his stars every other night.

    That team has a small but not insignificant chance to win 82 games barring injuries/resting shenanigans.

    My memory is clearly from the last two seasons. I don’t think the two games we won those seasons were easy either. But I hope you are right, a very different team (which we do have) will do better against them.

    “Also I think you definitely take the over on GS. The only way you don’t is if Kerr starts pulling a Popovich and resting half his stars every other night.

    That team has a small but not insignificant chance to win 82 games barring injuries/resting shenanigans.”

    Lol.
    There’s this concept called diminishing marginal returns.
    I’m 45 minutes from a William and Hill book in Nevada and I’m there twice a week.

    Still waiting for Jowles….

    It is a good line. I think I see 35-37 wins so i will take the under. 40-41 is definitely possible.

    I would take the under though if I had to pick.

    38.5 is fair at this point. Until there is a couple of preseason games to gauge the play of the many uncertain entities on the Knicks, not to mention the influence of the new coach, there’s no telling whether this is a 25 or 5o win team. 38.5 is sort of in the middle of those extremes, so I like the number.

    We have enormous question marks: Melo’s age and knees, Rose’ health, lawsuit and attitude, Noah’s health, KP’s development, etc. The biggest question mark of all may be the quality of the Knicks’ bench. Who steps up? Who gets exposed?

    There are plenty of half-baked reasons for both optimism and pessimism. In 3 more weeks we will have a much better idea.

    Lol.
    There’s this concept called diminishing marginal returns.
    I’m 45 minutes from a William and Hill book in Nevada and I’m there twice a week.

    Still waiting for Jowles….

    I fail to see how adding KD, Pachulia, and David West while losing Bogut, Ezeli, and Barnes is not a marked improvement unless you overvalue synergy.

    Losing Bogut and Ezeli hurts but KD is worth more wins than the 3 main departed pieces combined, never mind the contributions from Pachulia and West.

    Winning 38-39 games is pretty much the worst possible outcome, of course. Just sucky enough to miss the playoffs, not sucky enough to get a high lottery pick.

    #Knicks

    It has nothing to do with Synergy. Durant’s efficiency isn’t very much different than Curry’s or Thompsons or GSW in general, he is therefore not adding MUCH efficiency with his usage subtracted from the team efficiency last year.

    GSW did not address its weakness from last season.

    There is NO WAY they go undefeated it’s absurd.

    It has nothing to do with Synergy. Durant’s efficiency isn’t very much different than Curry’s or Thompsons or GSW in general, he is therefore not adding MUCH efficiency with his usage subtracted from the team efficiency last year.

    Kevin Durant attempted 5 fewer FGA than Klay Thompson did last year. He also scored 258 more points. That is a huge difference, and Klay is already a really, really good shooter.

    So yes, he is most definitely adding lots of efficiency to an already best-in-league offense. The Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Durant-Green lineup is going to score, like, 40% more points than opposing teams in the ~20 minutes per game that they are all on the floor together. It’s going to be a nightly bloodbath. You make such a fuss over teams being unable to gameplan for Carmelo’s once-a-game stepback jumper. Carmelo isn’t close to Curry or Durant, and they’re going to be on the floor together. And Klay’s going to park in the corner and drain threes on any team dumb enough to throw help defenders at penetration. How do you gameplan for them?

    GSW did not address its weakness from last season.

    Oh, that glaring weakness of a 73-win team that was a couple blocked FGA away from a back-to-back championship? C’mon. Plus, they have Pachulia. Dude is real good.

    There is NO WAY they go undefeated it’s absurd.

    Sure, but I don’t think a 1% chance of going undefeated would be all that unreasonable, and this is in a league in which 99.9% of teams have a 0.00% chance of an undefeated season. The injuries are the only concern. Full strength, there isn’t a team that can touch them in a 7-game series. They might post a double-digit MOV in the playoffs.

    The warriors are replacing Harrison Barnes, who fucking sucked last season, with one of the best players in NBA history still in his prime.

    As for the more important team, I have no idea how good the Knicks are going to be. We can count on Melo and Lee to have solid seasons. After that its all crapshoots.

    And once again, no one is arguing that Melo is in the conversation with Durant, Curry, Lebron, guys who can create their own offense at the most elite rate regardless of teammates or situation. etc..

    If he’s not a star, why spend so much time talking about him as if he was? (I wonder if there’s a guy on Kingsblogger.net that shows up every once in a while with cherry picked stats to prove to all the doubters that Rudy Gay is some amazing offensive machine?)

    I’ll take the over on the Knicks but that’s a solid line. That can go either way and still result in victory for Team Realist.

    Fwiw I like Kings over 32.5 before really digging into the numbers. My main hesitation with that is not knowing if and for how long Collison will get suspended.

    When I skimmed this and saw people making win predictions, I thought 38-42 wins as a range. So 38.5 seems pretty on point to me.

    “Spends several paragraphs explaining why it’s the others fault.
    Classic Ruru!”

    You can’t just have words mean what you want.

    “If he’s not a star, why spend so much time talking about him as if he was? (I wonder if there’s a guy on Kingsblogger.net that shows up every once in a while with cherry picked stats to prove to all the doubters that Rudy Gay is some amazing offensive machine?)”

    Wait, so am I spending a bunch of time talking about it or showing up once in awhile.

    Also, isn’t there some medium between Rudy Gay and Lebron James, and isn’t that where I argue Melo is?

    “Sure, but I don’t think a 1% chance of going undefeated would be all that unreasonable, and this is in a league in which 99.9% of teams have a 0.00% chance of an undefeated season. The injuries are the only concern. Full strength, there isn’t a team that can touch them in a 7-game series. They might post a double-digit MOV in the playoffs.”

    1 percent isn’t close. If an 82 game schedule were played out without back-to-backs and long road trips (built in significant disadvantages) you might get close to 1 percent.

    But there are these things called back-to-backs where winning percent is reduced about 15-20 percent.

    The Thunder have a much greater chance of having a Pythagorean winning percent of 100 percent than an actual undefeated season.

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