Knicks Morning News (2015.01.31)

  • [New York Post] Knicks hope Project Orlando produces Galloway-like results (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 00:37:34 -0500)

    Call it Project Orlando. Orlando Sanchez, who played for St. John's last season and went undrafted because of his age (26), continues to impress with D-League Westchester and is on…

  • [New York Daily News] Carmelo says ‘it kills me’ to see Kobe Bryant’s injury woes (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 05:24:33 GMT)

    The plan was for Carmelo and the Knicks to square off against Kobe and the Lakers as a nationally televised lead-in to the Super Bowl.

  • [New York Times] Bledsoe, Dragic Team for 44 Points as Suns Beat Bulls 99-93 (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 07:18:05 GMT)

    As they have so often this season, Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic pushed the Phoenix Suns to victory.

  • [New York Times] Hayward, Utah Jazz Upset Golden State Warriors 110-100 (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 05:39:07 GMT)

    The Golden State Warriors stepped off the plane in Salt Lake City with a bad taste in their mouths from a two-point overtime loss against the Chicago Bulls earlier in the week. Things got even worse against the Jazz on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Gordon Leads Davis-Less Pelicans Past Clippers, 108-103 (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 05:18:15 GMT)

    Eric Gordon looked a lot more like the player the Pelicans thought they were getting when he first arrived in a trade that sent Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2011.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Lakers Assign Forward to D-League (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 05:07:37 GMT)

    The Los Angeles Lakers have assigned forward Ryan Kelly to their D-League affiliate, the Los Angeles D-Fenders.

  • [New York Times] Motiejunas Scores 26, Rockets Top Celtics for 4th Win in Row (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 05:00:07 GMT)

    Donatas Motiejunas wasn’t thinking about a new career high when he took an alley-oop from James Harden and hit a layup as he fell to the floor late in the fourth quarter. Preserving a Houston Rockets victory was foremost on his mind.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Roundup: Hawks Top Blazers for 18th Straight Win (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 04:58:14 GMT)

    Atlanta overcame 37 points from Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge to beat the Trail Blazers, 105-99, and extend its franchise-record winning streak to 18 games.

  • [New York Times] LeBron Returns, Love, Irving Team for 44, as Cavs Top Kings (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 04:42:11 GMT)

    LeBron James met with Cavaliers team doctors Friday night to decide if he would play after missing a game because of a sprained right wrist.

  • [New York Times] Hawks Keep Streak Alive, Top Trail Blazers 105-99 (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 04:36:02 GMT)

    The Atlanta Hawks keep finding new ways to extend the longest winning streak in franchise history. This time, Kent Bazemore was the surprise star off the bench.

  • [New York Times] Mavericks Embarrass Heat in 2nd Half, Win 93-72 (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 03:45:01 GMT)

    Charlie Villanueva scored 20 points, and the Dallas Mavericks went on an incredible 37-2 run in the second half to embarrass the Miami Heat 93-72 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Raptors Blow Big Lead, Edge Nets 127-122 in Overtime (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 03:42:00 GMT)

    DeMar DeRozan scored 26 points, Amir Johnson made the tiebreaking basket with 41 seconds left in overtime, and the Toronto Raptors beat the Brooklyn Nets 127-122 on Friday night.

  • [New York Times] Carter-Williams Leads 76ers Past Timberwolves 103-94 (Sat, 31 Jan 2015 02:48:07 GMT)

    Michael Carter-Williams had a triple-double with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists to lead the Philadelphia 76ers to a 103-94 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night in a matchup of two of the league’s worst teams.

  • 16 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2015.01.31)”

    Uh-oh…3 very winnable games lurking. And then I’m actually going to the Warriors game and rooting against all odds for a win. Can we please go 1-3, with the win vs. GS??

    I love this board. Shitting on WP48 one minute, pulling out Defensive Real Plus/Minus the next. So much fun.

    No system that tries to capture everything about a player in a single number is going to be perfect, but some are worse than others. WP48 is not perfect, but at least the values for each factor have been determined using a peer reviewed statistical process instead of the whims and perceptions of some other model creator, fan, media guy, players etc…

    Most of the criticism about WP48 comes from people that don’t even understand what the model is saying or doing.

    Speaking of real plus minus, this made me laugh audibly:

    “Along with Anthony, who ranks 82nd out of 85 players at his position on defense, according to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric, Jose Calderon (76th of 82), Tim Hardaway, Jr. (101st of 104) and Jason Smith (99th of 101) all rank among the worst defenders at their positions—a suboptimal cast for a player like Anthony, whom the Knicks insist on playing at small forward”

    Well the idea of real +/- is very attractive. And the leader board doesn’t look that much different than WP or WS but who the heck knows what’s actually being measured? Given the crazy amounts of data being collected a revolution in stats is coming and my guess is the future will look more like real +/- than WP (there are a million things you can do to make your team better that don’t show up on a box score) but that doesn’t mean the current real +/- bears any real resemblance to what’s coming.

    1. A portion of defense is “team oriented”, “system oriented” etc.. and can’t be assigned to the individual players well. It’s reflected in the points per 100 possessions the team gives up and other team metrics.

    2. A portion of defense is mostly individual and can be assigned to the individual payers well (defensive rebounds, steals, blocks)

    3. A portion is purely an individual thing (on ball, help etc..) that can’t easily be captured via the box score.

    If you systematically capture #1, and assign #2 to the individuals, you’ve probably got 85% of what you need to accurately gauge most player’s defense. The exceptions would be the exceptionally good and poor on ball defenders.

    The counterintuitive thing about real plus minus is that the numbers include a boxscore derived measure of player value.

    I like the +/- stat for 5 man groups but do not love it for individual players because I think there is way too much noise based on who that individual player is playing with.

    I think that xPPS should have been the defining “moment” for defense-inclusive stats, but somehow it wasn’t.

    A defender who, even once a game, makes a tactical blunder so large that it results in, let’s say, a 99% eFG shot attempt (like a blown assignment leading to a backdoor dunk) is much different from a guy who, let’s say five times a game, loses his man around a screen and gives up a 20-foot jumper with his hand 5 feet from the ball instead of 5 inches from the ball — how much of a difference does that kind of spacing make?

    Is there a difference between being a X or (X + 3) feet away from a player at Y feet from the basket? Common sense says yes, but I think that the biggest things a player can do are: (1) not give up layups and dunks; (2) not give up open 3-pointers, especially in the corner; and (3) not foul on shot attempts. Trying to parse through all the noise of stats like “eFG% against on post-up fadeaways from the left elbow” just seems futile. Or at least to be taken with a grain of salt.

    I think the best bet is to evaluate players with high MP on good defensive teams as “good” defenders, and try to get those players whenever they are at least halfway efficient on offense. Especially when they are on-ball perimeter defenders and paint players.

    Also, the issue with RPM is simple: we have no idea what composes it.

    Once Monte opens up door number 1 and it’s an Emu eating its own feces, you ought to choose the other door even if it is a black box to you. RPM may be unclear in what are likely (but maybe not) trivial ways, but there are plenty of sources for ridge regressed plus minus, and then regressed plus minused against boxscore stats, without the bs secret sauce trademark smokescreen of real plus minus. It’s true that you can regularize plus-minus stats to reduce noise all you want and you’re still going to be stuck with big sample size and collinearity problems. You need a lot of math plus a lot of sample size to learn much from adjusted plus minus, whether you are including regressed boxscore stats or not. But it’s not irrelevant once you get several thousand minutes (even of a single player), and unlike worthless WP48 isn’t a complete and utter fraud pretending to be a regression on individual contributions to wins produced when it actually isn’t. WP is the emu.

    At least WP48 chooses the car more often than not. RPM should be ignored until the door is opened.

    It’s pretty impressive how you guys can shift back and forth seamlessly between the nuances of statistical analysis and 40 year old pop culture references and yet it all kind of makes sense. I’m still not giving up on the eye test, but at least you’ve caught my attention.

    There’s nothing nuanced about my attitude. It’s about making the 60% bet 100% of the time. It’s stupid and crude and — sorry, Ted Nelson — totally unbacked by independent research, but I am fully confident that my Knicks team would beat the piss out of this Knicks team. And the Knicks could have me as president of basketball operations for about $90,000 a year.

    Yes, Jimmy. You can have me if you want to save $9,910,000 a year on your personnel costs.

    Yes, Jimmy. You can have me if you want to save $9,910,000 a year on your personnel costs.

    Jowles, don’t go full Bill Simmons on us 😉

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