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Sunday, May 20, 2018

“We Got Rid of Phil Jackson, Where’s Our Karmic Reward?” – The 2018 NBA Lottery Open Thread

The Knicks haven’t moved up in the lottery since they won the Patrick Ewing sweepstakes over thirty years ago. And that was working with much different lottery odds.

Since then, the Knicks have been in 14 lotteries and have not moved up in ANY of them. They HAVE famously moved BACKWARDS in a number of them, though.

Let’s hope that they get some karmic reward for not trying to tank at the end of the season unlike most of the other teams in the bottom of the NBA.

Let’s go, lottery gods!

112 comments on ““We Got Rid of Phil Jackson, Where’s Our Karmic Reward?” – The 2018 NBA Lottery Open Thread

  1. Brian Cronin Post author

    Is it possible we could drop more than one spot?

    It is. They could theoretically fall as far back as #12, if three teams from #10-14 all move up into the top three. The odds of that happening would have to be practically infinitesimal, though.

  2. Brian Cronin Post author

    So am I correct that if the 10th or 9th picks are not NY, we’re in the top 3?

    Besides the extremely rare exception I noted above (where they could end up #11 or #12), yes, if they’re not #10 or #9, then get REALLY excited.

  3. thenamestsam

    They go in reverse order right, so your fringe scenarios will either be horrifically confirmed or (likely) ruled out by the time we get to #9. If we haven;t heard the Knicks by then something has gone right. Suffice it to say I am not expecting that to happen.

    Relevant info that possibly everyone else already memorized: 1.7% chance of #1, 6.1% chance of top 3. 6% is basically if they did the lottery every day this month the Knicks would be drawn into the top 3 twice. Doesn’t sound that hopeful when you say it like that. Hopefully it’s our day.

  4. Brian Cronin Post author

    Yes, they also open the envelopes quickly at first, so our worst case scenarios will likely be ruled out right away (the more teams picking in order at first, the better for the Knicks, so we want the #14 team to be picking #14, the #13 team picking #13, etc.). Sadly, so will our best case scenarios.

  5. ClashFan

    One of the pledges I made to the RNG gods is that I would NOT watch the lottery tonight. So, we’ll see if that helps.

  6. geo

    i love when we all play guessing games…i’m not really sure why…

    my guess – we’re sticking at #9

  7. Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada

    Silvers gonna give us the frozen Doncic envelope

    That’s what I tell myself at least. Positive affirmations!

  8. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    Silvers gonna give us the frozen Doncic envelope

    I think you mean the #1 Overall Pick envelope, which will be used to select LiAngelo Ball.

  9. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

    I’m with you, Silky.

    At least it’s an historically good draft (probably). I predict 5 all-NBA players at least and a handful of all-stars.

  10. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

    OK, that might be a little optimistic, but it feels way different than the last few years, when there were really only a couple great prospects and a variety of “could be good someday.”

  11. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    Ayton really does look like a cross between David Robinson and Kemp, per NBADraft.net. Not saying he’ll be those guys, but the body and the agility definitely looks like them.

  12. JK47

    I haven’t figured out the math of it all, because when you get right down to it I’m too lazy, but Dolan’s Razor tells me the odds of us getting leapfrogged are approximately ten million times higher than the odds of jumping into the top three.

  13. vincoug

    Woo! Got home just in time to watch us get leapfrogged! Who do we like when we inevitably fall to 10?

  14. Z-man

    Maybe we should just punch ourselves in the testicles right now, that way anything that happens in the lottery won’t be the most painful thing we experience today…

  15. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

    Maybe we should just punch ourselves in the testicles right now, that way anything that happens in the lottery won’t be the most painful thing we experience today…

    At this point we’re like the Shaolin monks of NBA fandom…

  16. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    This is why I don’t watch ESPN. 34 minutes into the “program” and they’re still jerking off with a talking-head panel. Jesus fucking christ, get on with it.

  17. vincoug

    She must have had someone in her earpiece telling her to hurry the fuck up because she rushed through those last few reps.

  18. Brian Cronin Post author

    Perry’s razor says you’re wrong.

    Fuck, so Elliot Perry is going to win the lottery?!?

  19. Brian Cronin Post author

    Can’t believe they are trolling us by making us wait for a commercial break for the number 9 pick!

  20. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    haha this music

    this ain’t a fuckin’ John Grisham adaptation

  21. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    If Cleveland wins, I give up on this league.

    LeErnstandYoung

  22. Hugo Busto

    This shit used to be at halftime of some playoff game. The way it should be.

    This is a hour long drawn out garbage that isn’t even compelling. Pathetic. Sad.

  23. Brian Cronin Post author

    So if we aren’t 9 then what?

    Only options left are number 9 and top 3.

  24. Brian Cronin Post author

    Phoenix, Sacramento and the Hawks? What a motley Crew of teams that is!

  25. Brian Cronin Post author

    I can’t believe that the Hawks are going to get the karmic reward for not taking at the end of the season!

  26. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    Phoenix, Sacramento and the Hawks? What a motley Crew of teams that is!

    I wonder who’ll end up with the good fortune to ruin Ayton and Doncic’s careers!

  27. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges will take us to the promised land"

    At least we didn’t drop back. Now we just have to find the right player at #9. NO mistakes!

  28. vincoug

    I’m pretty sue winning 29 games instead of 27 or 26 will totally pay off for our winning culture and we definitely won’t regret not getting a top 3 pick.

  29. Brian Cronin Post author

    #3 is a weird place to be with Ayton and Doncic off the board. The kings need a top two pick or else Bagley will likely bomb there with their shitty player development.

  30. bidiong

    How does the change in positions effect possibly who will be available to is at 9?

  31. geo

    i believe the knicks decaying orbit has finally stabilized…

    we are about to enter the wonderful era of mediocrity – which, considering where we’ve been – ain’t really that bad…

  32. Bruno Almeida

    At least we didn’t drop… feels good for the Suns and Kings, they deserved a break, but Memphis got so wrecked.

  33. Hubert

    Man that’s two years in a row Sacramento moved up.

    Part of the problem is the league has so many damn teams that don’t matter. All they do is take talent, waste it, and dilute the league.

    Do we really need the Memphis Grizzlies, the Orlando Magic, the Sacramento Kings, et al?

  34. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges will take us to the promised land"

    As long as Trae Young or one of the other ranked players doesn’t drop down a lot because they had a bad combine, I think we are in pretty decent shape to consider Mikal Bridges if that’s who they want. Another possibility is that one of the more athletic players ranked below us has a great combine and moves up. Something like that or Mikal moving up could drop Wendell Carter down to our area and maybe we’ll have a shot at him.

  35. Bruno Almeida

    @69

    The Kings moved to #2 and the Hawks moved to #3, dropping Memphis to the 4th pick.

  36. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    Winning culture >>> #2 pick all day every day

    yeah I mean where would the Sixers be without their longstanding winning culture

  37. ClashFan

    @72
    Ah, yeah, stinks for the Hawks and Memphis.

    If there were any justice, Chicago would have dropped back.

  38. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    PHO: Ayton (I know the new coach has ties to Doncic, but they already have Booker and Jackson as their starting wings. Unless they view Doncic as a PG, then that changes a lot).
    SAC: Doncic
    ATL: Bagley
    MEM: Jackson Jr (lol)
    DAL: Bamba
    ORL: Young
    Bulls: Carter Jr
    CLE: Mikal Bridges
    NYK: Michael Porter Jr

    New era confirmed.

  39. vincoug

    yeah I mean where would the Sixers be without their longstanding winning culture

    Philly is obviously doomed to years of 50+ win mediocrity because of their losing culture. Us winning 29 games shows our commitment to winning culture and will definitely pay off any day.

  40. heavencent35

    Happy for the suns though. They are an exciting team. Hope theyll be in the playoffs. Theyre crap in drafting though.
    For the Knicks. Just play young players and hopefully we will be in the top 3 next year. Our last lottery pick for the next 10 years (hopefully).

  41. ess-dog

    Friggin’ Sacramento… they don’t even deserve a team, much less the 2nd pick and most likely Doncic!

  42. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges will take us to the promised land"

    I’m not so sure the 76ers prospects look quite as good right now as they did at the end of the season given how the Celtics exposed some of their flaws even while missing 2 of their own best players. I’m way more worried about the Celtics long term.

    Unfortunately, neither model can be duplicated easily anyway. Billy King is gone and some of the lopsided trades that improved the 76ers position and the injuries that kept them in the high end of the lottery longer than otherwise aren’t likely to occur again.

  43. Brian Cronin Post author

    If there were any justice, Chicago would have dropped back.

    Didn’t they?

  44. Brian Cronin Post author

    I’m not so sure the 76ers prospects look quite as good right now as they did at the end of the season given how the Celtics exposed some of their flaws even while missing 2 of their own best players.

    Yeah, before the season I think we were all thinking, “Man, if the Sixers win 52 games with the #1 overall pick barely playing and then lose in the second round of the playoffs, this season will be a loss for them.” I believe Kevin Durant has a saying for that. ;)

  45. djphan

    i think the bulls are a concern to pick mikal….. the cavs… i’m pretty sure will pick trae….

    i hope something happens to cause carter to fall….

  46. ess-dog

    @75 Dallas could take Porter Jr. at 5, but this is how I think things will play out:

    PHO: Ayton
    SAC: Doncic
    ATL: Jackson Jr
    MEM: Bagley
    DAL: Carter Jr.
    ORL: Young
    Bulls: Bamba
    CLE: Mikal Bridges
    NYK: Porter Jr.

  47. vincoug

    If Phoenix doesn’t draft Doncic because they already have Booker and Jackson they’re even more incompetently run than I thought.

  48. Bruno Almeida

    @81

    Yeah, such a tough break, a team led by a 23 year old and a 21 year old lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs, I’m sure they would rather have Michael Beasley for reliable shot creation instead of that bum Simmons who’ll never improve ever.

  49. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges will take us to the promised land"

    Yeah, before the season I think we were all thinking, “Man, if the Sixers win 52 games with the #1 overall pick barely playing and then lose in the second round of the playoffs, this season will be a loss for them.” I believe Kevin Durant has a saying for that. ;)

    I said at the END of the season.

    At the end of the season people were talking like they were the favorite to win the eastern conference THIS year. Now, they won’t even be favored next year. They came out of the Boston series with people saying Simmons’s shot is broken and he’s going to have start all over or teams will be able to limit him by using the Boston blueprint. They are saying Embiid was exposed as being in poor condition but getting in top shape might raise his injury risk.

    I wouldn’t mind trading places with them, but even after 6 years of hell, a lucky lopsided trade, and injuries that kept them at the very top of the lottery, I’d still way rather be Boston.

    We are several years behind those teams in our rebuild.

  50. Bruno Almeida

    I know you’re trying to make this into another argument about how tanking won’t ever work strato but come on. The Celtics didn’t need to tank because they made the most lopsided trade in decades in the NBA and had the Nets tank for them.

    Insert IT back into the lineup and take away Tatum, Irving and Brown and the Celtics future looks like last year Utah at most.

    If all you need to never need to tank is Billy King being retarded, I guess that’s not really sustainable as a model.

  51. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    Considering Bamba went to Texas, I think Dallas won’t pass on him. They’ve presumably done a bunch of scouting on him and probably want a P&R dice man who can lock down a defense to go along with DSJr. I think Dallas is a good landing spot for Bamba

  52. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges will take us to the promised land"

    The way Perry keeps talking about “talent” acquisition (again tonight) I’m starting to think they like Sexton and Young. Not that I think they should tip their hand in case they really want Bridges or Carter, but saying it as much as they are feels like they are preparing the fans and media if they do take a PG.

  53. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, and one of the Bridges will take us to the promised land"

    I know you’re trying to make this into another argument about how tanking won’t ever work strato but come on. The Celtics didn’t need to tank because they made the most lopsided trade in decades in the NBA and had the Nets tank for them.

    Really, I’m just trying to keep the conversation from deteriorating into another round of fantasy because I can only take so much of it.

    There is nothing about what either Boston or the 76ers did that the Knicks could duplicate. It’s pointless.

    Maybe if Billy King gets hired and decides to make the worst trade in NBA history with us this time that would help.

    Maybe if the pinhead in Sacramento that did this http://www.businessinsider.com/sixers-trade-stauskas-picks-kings-deal-2015-7 wants to do the same with us that would help.

    I guess we could hope Porzingis is out the entire year next year, Frank breaks a bone in his foot, and our draft pick this year needs back surgery or something, that might help a little in next year’s draft. But given I’m not rooting for that, I’d be happy if we actually knew who the best player in this draft is at #9 so we could select the right one. There are going to be worse players selected above us than some of the players selected after us.

    All that said, I’d rather be Boston.

  54. alsep73

    The Doncic Dream is dead, but we also didn’t drop. That means we are in a decent position given the apparent depth of this draft.

    Doncic, Ayton, Bagley and Jackson will all be gone. After that, though, Things should be unpredictable, and we’re guaranteed one of the following if Perry and Milks want them.

    Porter
    Bomba
    Young
    Carter
    Mikael

    Anyone in that group you’re particularly rooting to fall to 9? Bridges or Carter as high floor guys st positions of need? Porter as a big gamble with the biggest upside of the group? Young as Frank’s polar opposite (and thus, perhaps his ideal backcourt mate)? Bomba to anchor the D with Frank and eventually KP? Or are you going off the board at 9 for Sexton, Miles, or someone else?

  55. Bruno Almeida

    I think the realistic dream is that Porter drops or either Carter or Mikal are left and that’s it, there’s not much else that I see as making sense.

    It’s going to be a long offseason.

  56. Totes McGoats as Totes McGoats

    I hate to ask this question, but how is Sexton on defense? He’s athletic and has good length for a barely 6’2″ guy. I may be able to talk myself into liking Sexton as the pick if he can play defense. There’s a ton of hype around Sexton as a Knick, and flash may be the tiebreaker over a Mikal Bridges. I’m still all in on Bridges- just preparing myself for the seemingly inevitable..

  57. Jack Bauer

    At least they didn’t drop to 10.

    After watching the playoffs so far I have to strongly agree with the comments above – the Knicks are way way behind Boston and Philly and it will take a while, some luck, and some great moves to catch up to those teams any time soon.

    Base case is
    1) They hit it on this year’s pick
    2) KP is out almost all or the whole year
    3) they play the young guys major minutes and suck
    4) get a top 3 pick next year

    That’s a lot to have to go right, but it’s possible although not probable for Knicks fans.

  58. dtrickey

    At least we didn’t go down. Maybe our luck is changing? Baby steps.

    Given we have prepared for 9 for a few months now. I am crossing fingers and toes for Porter at this stage, but it seems doubtful he drops to 9. Not sold on Sexton. His name has popped up a lot for us on draft boards, but colour me not enthused.

  59. Z-man

    Other than the hate uniforms, Team Horford is hard to root against and the Cavs are hard to root for.

  60. ess-dog

    In order I’d prefer:

    1. Porter Jr.
    2. Carter Jr.
    3. Young*
    4. Bamba*
    5. Mikal
    6. Miles

    I think if Young or Bamba falls to us it would be nice because we could pull a pretty nice trade for multiple pieces, but I’d rather have Mikal on the team than those two, to be honest.

  61. djphan

    sexton is a carbon copy of lou williams…. meaning there’s really not that much defense there….

    he probably won’t be as good…. but the games are fairly similar….

    if sexton is the pick…. we are probably sacrificing dotson plus one or two of baker/mudiay/frank…..

    if the guy was good enough that’s fine… but he’s probably at best on par with all of those names….

  62. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    Michael Porter Jr is going to refuse Cleveland a workout/medical exam and that is going to cause him to fall to us. I’m very glad he came out this year because of how strong the top of the draft is. All of Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, G League Jackson Jr, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter, Trae Young, and Mikal Bridges did enough to look like they have at least superstar role player potential. There’s no reason for a team to pass on those 8 players for a guy who won’t workout for you. I could see a team like Atlanta picking him, but why pass on Marvin Bagley for Michael Porter Jr? Dallas would be passing on Carter Jr and Bamba for Porter Jr? Chicago and Cleveland scare me, but I don’t think Michael Porter Jr works out for Cleveland and I think Mikal Bridges’ defense and shooting between LaVine and Markannen get Chicago to bite. Michael Porter Jr is going to be a New York Knick and it’ll be like we had the 3rd pick in the draft.

  63. Brian Cronin Post author

    Other than the hate uniforms, Team Horford is hard to root against and the Cavs are hard to root for.

    I think that the Celtics might actually match up surprisingly okay with the Warriors.

  64. djphan

    i’m starting to think porter probably will drop also…. but it really all depends if he decides to work out for teams….. if he doesn’t… there aren’t many i can see actually taking the plunge on him….

  65. Z-man

    Stevens has the perfect team for his brand of coaching. I actually wonder if having Hayward and Irving will mess things up next year….

  66. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

    The way Perry keeps talking about “talent” acquisition (again tonight)

    Strat, Where is the quote or video that you are referring to here? I’d like to read or listen to it.

    As for current Sixers versus Boston potential, I trust Boston’s management much more than Colangelo to maximize the hand they have — So I am much more worried about the Celtics than Philadephia. And management of the team is important. Look at the Kings. Apparently, they’ve picked in the top ten in the lottery for ten straight years and haven’t made the playoffs since 2006.

  67. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    Marcus Smart might leave in free agency and I think he’s the most irreplaceable member of the Boston Celtics. He is the only player in the league with the speed and agility to bother guards and the strength and center of gravity to bother power forwards. Boston’s toughness starts and ends with him, and if Stevens lets him go I’m not sure things will be so interchangeable the way they were with Thomas, Bradley, and Crowder. Stevens is a hell of a coach and his team shouldn’t be this good, but at some point you need talent. A talent like Marcus Smart is unique and I think they’re going to let him walk.

  68. nicos

    Sixers do have two first rounders and 4(!) seconds this year plus lots of cap space to improve the team. If LBJ goes there the odds immediately shift to them over Boston. The Knicks will need to get miraculously lucky in the draft to have any hope of competing with either of them for the next 4-5 years. That’s why I’m not super high on Mikal- I’d like to see a higher ceiling guy and I think Young, Carter Jr., and certainly Porter and Bamba all have higher ceilings. I’d much prefer Mikal to Sexton however- Sexton seems like De’Aaron Fox with less defense- no thanks.

  69. JK47

    Boston is going to have a hard time scoring against the Warriors. Cleveland was a crummy defensive team all year long, so Boston can get some buckets against them, but the Warriors play some A+ defense in the playoffs. I think Boston’s limitations are going to become very apparent against the Warriors.

  70. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

    For sure, but next year if they have Irving and Heyward back, Boston’s scoring ability goes up a notch.

  71. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    I believe Kevin Durant has a saying for that. ;)

    That’s the, uh, hesi… crossover… stepback jimbo?

  72. Brian Cronin Post author

    Stevens has the perfect team for his brand of coaching. I actually wonder if having Hayward and Irving will mess things up next year….

    I don’t think it will mess things up so much as it will have a surprising (to the general fans) minimal impact, for the reasons that I think we all get – which is that the guys that those two will replace are playing pretty darn well right now, so there is less room for improvement than you would think when you’re dealing with such famous players.

  73. Jack Bauer

    Letting Marcus Smart go would not be a good move for Boston IMO. He had a huge impact on tonight’s game and several others in this year’s playoffs. He allows their defense more options to switch everything and he can get into the paint. His shooting is terrible but the rest of his game looks solid. I do like watching the Celtics play, they are smart effective on both sides of the ball. I too wonder how they will integrate Irving and Hayward, the rotations look almost perfect now.

    I would be shocked and ecstatic if Porter Jr. fell to 9, but I seriously doubt it. A Bridges is likely the destiny of the Knicks.

  74. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

    Thinking about Marcus Smart, I realized the descriptions above “He allows their defense more options to switch everything and he can get into the paint. His shooting is terrible but the rest of his game looks solid” and “He is the only player in the league with the speed and agility to bother guards and the strength and center of gravity to bother power forwards” reminded me of some things Ntilikina can do. So I compared Smart and Ntilina’s rookie statistics. Smart was drafted number six, two spots higher than Ntilikina and was one year older in his rookie year. Their first year counting and per 36 stats are pretty similar. Their shooting percentages were pretty close, but Smart was a slightly better scorer and Ntilikina a slightly better defender. The advanced stats favor Smart more than the simple ones do, and I am not sure why that is. I noted that Smart’s advanced stats are worse now then when he was a rookie, which makes me doubt them, since I can’t imagine he’s gotten substantially worse since his rookie year. If Ntilikina shows any reasonable improvement next year, his 20 year old season should be better than Smart’s 20 year old season was. Given that he was drafted two spots lower than Smart, that is good potential and good performance for a number 8 pick.

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Frank+Ntilikina&player_id1_select=Frank+Ntilikina&player_id1=ntilila01&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Marcus+Smart&player_id2_select=Marcus+Smart&y2=2015&player_id2=smartma01&idx=players

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