Knicks Morning News (2018.07.25)

  • [NYPost] The two stars Enes Kanter thinks can wind up on Knicks
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 3:10:54 PM)

    Enes Kanter is dreaming big — which, for the Knicks, means dreaming long range. The Knicks’ 6-foot-11 center said Monday that he believes his sad-sack team has a “really, really high chance’’ of signing both Kyrie Irving and Jimmy Butler when the pair of free-agents-to-be hit the market in 2019. Asked by Fox Sports 1’s…

  • [NYPost] Knicks take a chance on NBA draft bust
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 3:07:34 PM)

    The Knicks on Tuesday took another low-risk flier on a former high draft pick, signing big man Noah Vonleh. Vonleh averaged 4.9 points and 5.8 rebounds in 16.2 minutes over 54 games last season, split between the Trail Blazers and Bulls. His one-year signing, the terms of which were not disclosed, was first reported by…

  • [NYPost] Walt Frazier endorses a troubling and tempting Knicks tank
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 2:51:34 PM)

    Walt Frazier said the Knicks should become part of one of the NBA’s biggest problems. Because Kristaps Porzingis is still rehabbing from a torn ACL and expected to miss at least a significant amount of next season, Frazier said the Knicks would be in a far better position to contend in the future if the…

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks agree to deal with Noah Vonleh
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 3:56:40 PM)

    The Knicks have reached a deal with free agent Noah Vonleh. The 22-year-old was drafted by the Bulls with the ninth overall pick in 2014.

  • [SNY Knicks] Kanter on Knicks landing Irving, Butler in 2019: ‘I think they will’
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 9:49:24 AM)

    Knicks C Enes Kanter believes a Kyrie Irving-Jimmy Butler combo making their way to New York in 2019 is a good bet.

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks sign former top-10 pick Noah Vonleh
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 7:28:00 PM)

    Free-agent forward Noah Vonleh signed with the Knicks Tuesday, the team announced. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

  • [NY Newsday] Madison Square Garden, Pepsi announce marketing partnership
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 3:10:00 PM)

    Beginning in September, Pepsi products will be sold, distributed and displayed at all Madison Square Garden properties, and inside the Garden itself, the Eighth Floor Concourse will be renamed the Pepsi Concourse, as part of a new partnership between the giant soft drink company and the Madison Square Garden Company, it was announced at a news conference at the Garden Tuesday.

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: N.B.A. Power Brokers Gather, With No Men Allowed
    (Wednesday, July 25, 2018 1:32:13 AM)

    The league leads many others in hiring and promoting women, but a recent meeting of about 60 women working in the league aimed to increase that footprint.

  • [NYTimes] Dirk Nowitzki Signs One-Year Deal With the Dallas Mavericks
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 10:29:32 PM)

    The new deal will enable Nowitzki to pass Kobe Bryant for the longest unbroken tenure with one team in N.B.A. history.

  • [ESPN] Knicks sign ex-Blazers, Bulls forward Vonleh
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 4:24:47 PM)

    The Knicks have signed forward Noah Vonleh, who played for the Blazers and Bulls last season.

  • [NYDN] What sharks need from us: Our city only exists because of the abundant, healthy oceans that surround us
    (Wednesday, July 25, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    Most of us have moments — sometimes despairing, sometimes awestruck — when we ask ourselves the fundamental question of existence: Why are we here?

    The answer that resonates may vary according to faith, philosophical stance, subway delays or the day’s headlines, but even in the best of times any…

  • [NYDN] Vote against Joe Crowley in November: The Working Families Party chair regrets not endorsing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
    (Wednesday, July 25, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    It’s a once-in-a-blue-moon event for the Working Families Party to tell voters to stay away from our ballot line. But when Joe Lieberman is making an argument for voting on the WFP line, something is very fishy.

    So how’d we end up here?

    Tuesday, June 24 was a big night for us. WFP-backed candidates…

  • [NYDN] Speed demons: The state Senate fails New York City pedestrians
    (Wednesday, July 25, 2018 1:10:00 AM)

    The silence from the state Senate is deafening — almost like the eerie quiet in the moments after a hurtling car crashes with a sickening crunch into other vehicles, or a lamppost, or people.

    Today is the dark day that a proven life-saving technology all but vanishes from New York City’s streets,…

  • [NYDN] Red signals ahead: The subway action plan hasn’t yet turned the corner on bad service
    (Wednesday, July 25, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    On July 25, 2017, with the subways in terrible shape, Gov. Cuomo’s MTA chairman, Joe Lhota, announced an $836 million action plan.

    It’s a year later. The trains are still in terrible shape. Straphangers have no hair left to pull out.

    Don’t pretend this has much to do with Mayor de Blasio withholding…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on Shelly Silver, Rikers and pets
    (Wednesday, July 25, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Strict punishment for Shelly

    Brooklyn: Sheldon Silver thumbed his nose at the people of New York by refusing to divulge his arrangement with a tort law firm that had been paying him, thus never explicitly detailing the extreme conflict of interest which was part of a long career of influence peddling,…

  • [NYDN] Georgia lawmaker who used racial slur, exposed himself on TV will resign
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 11:00:00 PM)

    ATLANTA — A spokesman for Georgia House Speaker David Ralston says the state lawmaker who exposed himself and yelled racial slurs on provocateur Sacha Baron Cohen’s new cable TV series will resign.

    Spokesman Kaleb McMichen tells the Atlanta Journal-Constitution late Tuesday that Rep. Jason Spencer…

  • [NYDN] Police: Man tortured, killed woman before dismembering her
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 10:40:00 PM)

    LAWRENCE, N.J. — The man accused of dismembering and burning the body of a New Jersey woman is now charged with killing her.

    Prosecutors allege that 52-year-old Dennis Parrish tortured and killed 32-year-old Tonya Cook before dismembering her body and leaving her burned remains in a Cumberland…

  • [NYDN] Police identify girl killed by maniac in Toronto shooting rampage
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 10:10:00 PM)

    TORONTO — Toronto police have identified the 10-year-old girl killed in Sunday’s mass shooting as Julianna Kozis.

    In addition, investigators said Tuesday there was no national security risk following the mass shooting that killed two people and wounded 13, as they continued to probe the life of…

  • [NYDN] Mars making closest approach to Earth in 15 years
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 9:45:00 PM)

    CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — Now’s the time to catch Mars in the night sky.

    Next week, the red planet is making its closest approach to Earth in 15 years.

    The two planets will be just 35.8 million miles (57.6 million kilometers) apart next Tuesday. And on Friday, Mars will be in opposition. That means…

  • [NYDN] With focus on Mexico, apprehensions grow over human smuggling at Canadian border
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 9:30:00 PM)

    DERBY LINE, Vt. — While the Trump administration fortifies the southern border, there’s growing concern over the number of foreigners entering the country illegally across the porous northern border with Canada.

    People crossing the border between Vermont and Quebec have paid smugglers up to $4,000,…

  • [NYDN] Roseanne Barr ‘disgusted’ at support for James Gunn after ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’ firing
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 9:15:00 PM)

    Roseanne Barr is still looking for some defenders.

    The 65-year-old actress, who was fired from her ABC sitcom after a racist tweet about Valerie Jarrett, the former senior adviser to former President Barack Obama, compared her own situation to that of James Gunn, who was axed from “Guardians of…

  • [NYDN] Man arrested for exercising naked at Planet Fitness
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 8:50:00 PM)

    PLAISTOW, N.H. — A man who stripped naked before working out at a New Hampshire gym told police officers that he thought he was in a “Judgement Free Zone,” before being arrested.

    NECN reports 34-year-old Eric Stagno, of Haverhill, Massachusetts, was charged with indecent exposure, lewdness and…

  • [NYDN] Yankees acquire closer Zach Britton as Masahiro Tanaka twirls complete-game shutout in win over Rays
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 8:50:00 PM)

    The Yankees improved their pitching Tuesday night — just not their starting pitching.

    They agreed to a deal for Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton in exchange for three pitching prospects. The Yankees announced the deal in a press release late Tuesday night.

    The deal sends RHP Dillon Tate, RHP…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Mets still waiting to decide if Yoenis Cespedes needs surgery on night Jeff McNeil gets first hit in MLB debut
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 8:35:00 PM)

    On Day Five of the Yoenis Cespedes Heel saga, the Mets…..continued waiting. After first-year manager Mickey Callaway promised a decision “probably sooner than an hour,” and that assistant GM John Ricco would speak on whether the Mets slugger would be having season-ending surgery, which would push…

  • [NYDN] Zack Wheeler well aware he may have made his last start in Mets uniform: “It crossed my mind”
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 8:15:00 PM)

    The thought crossed his mind. As Zack Wheeler stood on the mound at Citi Field Tuesday night, it occurred to him that it could be his last time starting there in a Mets jersey.

    “It crossed my mind, not gonna lie,” Wheeler said. “At the same time, you can’t do anything about it. You just got to…

  • [NYDN] Recording of Trump and Michael Cohen proves he knew about Playmate ‘catch and kill,’ lawyer says
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 8:00:00 PM)

    Recordings of then-candidate Trump and his former lawyer Michael Cohen in 2017 prove the President knew about paying for a Playboy playmate’s story about an affair she had with the billionaire, according to Cohen’s lawyer.

    The so-called secret recordings, provided to CNN by Cohen’s attorney Lanny…

  • [NYDN] Victim’s family to Bronx park slaying suspect: ‘I hope you rot!’
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 6:20:00 PM)

    The family of a Bronx shooting victim raged at his alleged murderer during a court appearance Tuesday afternoon, screaming curses at him as he was led from the courtroom.

    “F—— bastard! I hope you rot!” shouted Jose Cruz’s relatives at 21-year-old Zaire Hebron, who’s accused of executing Cruz…

  • [NYDN] Lamar Odom says he’s ‘OK’ after being involved in shooting at Queens Hooters
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 6:05:00 PM)

    Lamar Odom says he’s safe after a scary shooting at a Queens Hooters last week.

    The 38-year-old former NBA star was eating at an outdoor table at the New York restaurant around 12:30 a.m. Thursday when another group fired shots after an argument with his friends, a source told the Daily News Tuesday.

  • [NYDN] Suspicious package labeled ‘anthrax’ found at Congresswoman Maxine Waters’ Los Angeles office
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:50:00 PM)

    A mysterious package labeled “anthrax” led to an evacuation of Congresswoman Maxine Waters’ office in Los Angeles on Tuesday, officials said.

    Police responded to the location around 2:30 p.m. and called in a hazardous materials team from the Los Angeles Fire Department, an LAPD source told the…

  • [NYDN] ID thief attaches skimming device to ATM at famed Grimaldi’s Pizzeria in Brooklyn
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:50:00 PM)

    A customer at Grimaldi’s Pizzeria found a skimming device attached to an ATM inside the tourist favorite Brooklyn restaurant, cops said Tuesday.

    Cops responded to the popular DUMBO pizza joint on June 8, after a 36-year-old woman found the device at about 11:30 a.m.

    Police removed the device, and…

  • [NYDN] Corey Oswalt getting well-deserved chance to make spot start in Noah Syndergaard’s place
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:25:00 PM)

    Corey Oswalt is getting the “second” chance he deserves. The right-hander had a tough major league “debut” this season, but over his last three starts, Oswalt has shown the Mets he can handle himself, pitching to a 3.60 ERA.

    While they had considered keeping him in the rotation over lefty Jason…

  • [NYDN] 42nd St. crosstown bus once again named city’s slowest trip
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:00:00 PM)

    The crossroads of the world marks the path of the city’s slowest bus.

    The M42 crosstown won the Straphangers Campaign’s Pokey award for the slowest bus trip in the city, the group announced Tuesday.

    The 42nd St. bus line beat out more than 200 other routes for speeds clocking in as slow as 3.2…

  • [NYDN] Axed Paramount TV president Amy Powell claims gender bias in firing over alleged ‘racially charged’ statements
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:00:00 PM)

    Amy Powell, who was fired from her job as the president of Paramount TV over allegations of “racially charged” statements, has begun pushing back.

    Powell was axed last week after “multiple individuals” raised concerns about “which they believed were inconsistent with our company’s values,” Paramount…

  • [NYDN] Madden: The harsh truth is the Yankees are better off with Gary Sanchez on the disabled list right now
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 4:40:00 PM)

    ST. PETERSBURG, FL. – Ordinarily, the announcement that Gary Sanchez is going back on the disabled list with a recurrence of the groin injury that previously sidelined him for 25 days might be regarded as bad news for the Yankees. Not so Tuesday. One way or the other, after his appallingly lazy…

  • [NYDN] Harvest of stupidity: Trump throws $12 billion in tax dollars at a crisis he created
    (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 4:30:00 PM)

    Like a man who wields a bloody machete in one hand and a first-aid kit in the other, President Trump is now throwing taxpayer money — lots of it — at a problem he and he alone created.

    In late May, Trump kicked off a trade war with tariffs on imported metals. Which set off tit-for-tat retaliation,…

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    81 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2018.07.25)”

    1. Some imaginable things that might lead to the Knicks overachieving even if they stick to guys 27 and under:
      1. Kanter plays with desperation given that he is in a contract year and desperately wants to stay in NY
      2. Timmy (yes, he’s going to start and play 30+ mpg) goes all out to prove last year was a fluke
      3. KP comes back fully healthy before the halfway point
      4. Robinson does what he did in summer league (very transferrable stuff, impacted games dramatically w/o plays being run for him) and adds strength and defensive positional awareness during next 3 months
      5. Burke plays like Isaiah Thomas (I think this is the most critical element, and if you look at how they played in ther 25yo seasons, the similarities in production are compelling. Thomas shot more 3’s at a slightly higher %, Burke had more assists and less turnovers, but otherwise they were VERY similar.) http://bkref.com/tiny/jhgi4
      6. Knox has typical rookie struggles but plays well enough to be in in the ROY hunt
      7. Hezonja matures and takes advantage of his opportunity in a critical contract year.
      8. Frank, Dotson, Vonleh and Baker play marginally better than last year
      9. Despite expectations, they get off to a faster start than expected and Fiz starts playing more to win.
      10. Something positive happens out of the blue (e.g. someone unexpectedly makes a major jump, lke Mudiay, or a shrewd midseason deal for a good young player, or a G-League Jeremy Lin-type call-up)

      Obviously this should all be taken with a grain of salt, and it is not a desirable outcome in the sense of draft position, but all of these scenarios involve young players increasing their value to the future. Would that me more valuable than a 14% chance of a #1 pick in a very top-heavy draft?

    2. Kanter and Burke playing well (on offense) wouldn’t surprise me.

      The key to wins – if we want them – is imo Fiz’s team defensive strategy and whether guys will buy in or even if they are physically capable of playing real D.

      TH2, Kanter and Burke have a ton of room for improvement. Of those guys, TH2 at least has the athletic ability to defend.

      Sadly, I don’t think Hezonja will ever be an average defender. You’re going to need significant minutes and excellent D from Knox, TH2, Frank and Mitchell before you can even think about wins.

    3. 5. Burke plays like Isaiah Thomas (I think this is the most critical element, and if you look at how they played in ther 25yo seasons, the similarities in production are compelling. Thomas shot more 3’s at a slightly higher %, Burke had more assists and less turnovers, but otherwise they were VERY similar.) http://bkref.com/tiny/jhgi4

      Burke played great last year but there’s a yellow flag that’s missing here. IT got to the line 7+X per 36 and Burke got there 2+X. The only way he was able maintain a TS of 56% — only 16bps worse than IT — was by shooting 56% from 16-23. But 56% from 16-23 isn’t sustainable. In the long run nobody shoots that well, but variation in a single year is common. Steph came into last year a career
      45% shooter from 16-23 and shot 62%. Korver is career 45%. CP3 is career 46%. At 45% Burke’s TS% drops down to 53% and that is a long, long way from peak IT. Burke’s a nice pickup but he’s going to have to find a way to alter his ratio of long 2s (46% of hits shots) to 3s/FTA if he’s going to be in the same galaxy IT was.

    4. Trier and Hezonja are the biggest wild cards on the roster IMO. Hezonja showed some signs of figuring “it” out last season once he started getting more burn and Trier has always looked like a guy who knows how to score at any level if nothing else.

      I expect Frank to be better, but still not “good” on offense.

      Knox will get lots of pointz but not efficiently.

      Burke takes a step back in his efficiency because the midrange shooting isn’t going to sustain, but he stays being a relative plus value on offense, but basically gives it all back on D.

      THJr plays the same but levers up to a 55-56 TS.

      Kanter does the same shit he always does.

      MitchRob’s numbers look great, but foul trouble and lack of understanding in the fundamentals and post defense keep him a low minutes piece for most of the season.

      Kornet eats some minues and will sporadically have 4-6 nights from 3 which push us dangerously close to wins.

      Vonleh can rebound and play some defense if nothing else, two things this roster is short on and on the right nights that may push things in our direction, assuming he sticks on the roster.

      Lance continues to be garbage.

      Lee plays like a dead man walking as he did after KP went down last year or hopefully gets traded.

      Noah is more or less nailed to the bench, but may get more vet minutes because Fizdale is better at managing egos in a locker room than Horny.

      Dotson and Baker get a little more burn because they can defend.

      Mudiay continues to be a tirefire.

      I’ll say 24 wins because I think this team racks up more wins than you want down the stretch of the season as these kids will play hard when other teams are just waiting for the season to end and KP should be back on the court then so our defense will be respectable then, probably.

    5. @3 All true. however, Burke got to the line at nearly double that rate in the G-League. He also shot over 50% from 2 and over 41% from 3 at a high usage in a reasonably large sample. He may just be a freaky-good 2-pt shooter, but even if that drops as you suggest, at least he seems capable of getting to the line more and improving his 3-pt %. I also think that his defense is better than IT’s and he’s clearly a better passer both in terms of assists per 36 and ast/tov ratio.

      Just to clarify, we’re talking about IT at the same age, which is very good but a far cry from IT in his last year with BOS when he put up one of the best offensive seasons a PG could possibly have and was an MVP candidate.

    6. I love MitchRob as much as the next Knicks fan, but right now he’s all potential and would most likely get exposed even in a regular season game. I’m not sure whether Fizdale will want him with the big club so he can have a personal hand in his development, but my guess is that if he gets minutes in the NBA, his counting stats per 36 (say like 12 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks) will look nice but he’ll be a severely net negative defender just based on his terrible technique, and will probably average 8 fouls per 36 and so won’t be able to stay on the floor long enough to make any real difference. If it were up to me (which it is clearly not!) I would park him in Westchester for the first few months of the season and see what regular run + practice does for cleaning up his game.

      I’m no basketball scout, but this line from Cleaning the Glass seemed altogether appropriate for MitchRob:

      Robinson led all players in Las Vegas with 4.0 blocks per game, and added 13.0 ppg and 10.2 rpg. He shot 67% from the field and had only one turnover in 124 minutes. He also displayed a lack of awareness and understanding at points, moving and reacting in ways that made it appear as if some of the fundamental aspects of basketball were foreign to Robinson.

      and

      He does things and positions himself on the court in a way that you almost never see from a professional player. On some of those plays, he looks like he’s just playing pickup at the park—trying hard without the knowledge or technique of how to do his job.

      That contract that Perry was able to get him to sign – that was huge and is an underreported win by Perry this offseason. I seriously don’t think he’ll be a net positive contributor until the 19-20 season at the earliest. I’d love to be wrong.

    7. What makes me so high on Robinson’s quick development is that he seems to have such great body control. He was unbridled at times, but there were lots of instances where he didn’t go for fakes and eventually blocked shots after staying on the ground. He also did a great job staying in front of guards and wings after switches on the perimeter. His agility level was very impressive. So the positional things he needs to learn are not as daunting as a guy who goes for every fake.

      My main concern about him is his ability to defend 1-on-1 in the post. There was that one game where some burly scrub went at him over and over again and he kept getting overwhelmed and either fouling or getting scored from deep. Some of that was positional/technique and some was simply having insufficient lower body strength. A guy like Horford will destroy him in the post and have him out of the game in 3-4 minutes. But if you have him out there as a weak-side shot-blocker with Kanter or Vonleh defending the post, some of that can be negated.

      But I doubt that he starts down in the G-League. My guess is that he does much of the same shit in preseason as he did in SL and stays up with the big club despite being foul-prone.

    8. A lot things would have to break the Knicks way for them to be any good next year. They were one of the worst teams in the NBA once KP went down last year. Since then they let O’Quinn go. O’Quinn was one of the more productive players and better defenders on the team. Not that I’m a fan of Beasley, but I suspect Beasley’s contribution last year was probably equal to or greater than we can expect from Hezonja in a similar role. Lee may also be traded before the season starts. They will need some development and a few pleasant surprises from some of the young players just to stay where they were late last year (which was terrible). I expect some of that, but I’d be surprised if we got enough of it to actually play good basketball.

    9. I like the Noah Vonleh signing. The Knicks have no defenders other than Frank, Baker, Thomas and maybe Dotson. A couple of those aren’t going to get many minutes. We need more defenders. He’s also a decent fit next to KP when/if returns and plays some 5 because he’s a very good rebounder at the PF position. He’s a big negative on offense, but in the right lineups he can be useful on a team this bad. Taking a look at him for a year on the cheap and seeing if he can get better seems like a good move to me.

    10. @8, Oh, no doubt! Most likely:
      1. Kanter plays the same, all O no D.
      2. Timmy plays the same, inefficient volume shooter with mediocre D
      3. KP doesn’t make much of an impact, at least until it’s too late
      4. Robinson can’t stay on the court due to fouls
      5. Burke plays very well! (I’m not budging on this one, sorry!)
      6. Knox fails to crack .500 TS% and struggles on D
      7. Hezonja plays better but still an inefficient volume shooter with sketchy D
      8. Same (i.e. non have much of an impact on winning)
      9. They start 5-20 and have a fire sale on vets before waiving them
      10. No miracle happen.

      Final result: 23-59, 4th-6th seed in lottery.

    11. I think some upside surprises on the list are likely. THJ and Kanter will probably play well. Robinson won’t start, but will be a help off the bench. Vonleh will be useful. One or more of Burke, Hezonja, Knox and Dotson will actually be good. Ntilikina will anchor the second unit and continue to improve. To me that means we win more than twenty games. It’s hard to lose more than sixty games.

    12. @11 at the very least there will be stretches where many things on the good list happen and we run up against equally bad teams or vulnerable good teams in trap games, etc. I agree that it will be very hard to lose 60 games or more with this roster.

    13. don’t think that’s how revenue sharing works.

      Revenue sharing helps keep small market teams competitive, which is good for the league. The biggest contributors to the revenue sharing pool were the Lakers, Knicks, and Bulls, none of whom made the playoffs. (And the largest beneficiary of revenue sharing since it was adopted has been the Memphis Grizzlies, who have been a very well run and competitive franchise during that time.)

      The revenue created by hosting home games in the playoffs isn’t just turned over to the league. It doesn’t disincentivize winning. It’s in everybody’s best interests for teams to try to win.

      I oversimplified when I said you have to share the revenue with 29 other teams, but revenue sharing ABSOLUTELY takes away the incentives for teams to choose making the playoffs over tanking.

      In 2017, for instance, 10 teams handed over $200mm to 15 teams (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20747413/a-confidential-report-shows-nearly-half-nba-lost-money-last-season-now-what).

      The disincentive for tanking is supposed to be that you lose money. But the NBA is a permanent welfare state that can easily be manipulated. If you’re the Orlando Magic, it’s better to be shit every single year until you hit the lottery like New Orleans or San Antonio did. You make more money through the subsidies than you do through marginal improvement and a playoff series worth of tickets and concessions.

      Incentivizing losing *and* redistributing profits to the teams that make no money is a terrible combination. That’s why it didn’t hurt Philadelphia in the bank. Their attendance sucked, but the Knicks and Lakers were making money hand over fist, so they still got paid.

    14. Listing all possible upside surprises is nice and all, but one-sided. You do know that if you’re listing a 2% chance that Mudiay plays above-shit, then you gotta list the possible downside stuff, which is more likely. Like Lee playing even worse, Kanter becoming completely apathetic on defense, Robinson/Knox/Trier/Dotson/Hezonja are still completely raw and unplayable unless you really don’t care about winning, Frank continuing his trend of offensive passivity…

    15. Incentivizing losing *and* redistributing profits to the teams that make no money is a terrible combination. That’s why it didn’t hurt Philadelphia in the bank.

      I’m still not convinced that you know what you’re talking about. Revenue sharing is based on number of TV households in the team’s designated market. The Sixers, as far as I can tell, haven’t been beneficiaries of revenue sharing during their “process”. In 2016, after losing 72 games, they were neither a contributor nor a recipient. It’s the small market teams like the Grizzlies and Pelicans that benefit because they are required to abide by the salary floor, despite not being able to generate enough revenue to afford it.

      (And Orlando hasn’t even been a tanking team. They hired a win-now coach for $22 million and fired him, eating two years of his contract, when he didn’t win now. That doesn’t smell like a team incentivized to lose.)

    16. Like Lee playing even worse, Kanter becoming completely apathetic on defense, Robinson/Knox/Trier/Dotson/Hezonja are still completely raw and unplayable…

      Most above names are cannon fodder at best; realistic scenario is Perry will take them out back and shoot them himself.

      Only two players would really hurt and could cause Perry to change course.

      1)KP is a shell of himself when he comes back.
      2) Timmy regresses and goes back down to a mediocre 12 ppg type guy.

    17. Side question: Is the term “welfare cliff” politically loaded?

      Like if I call what the NBA has created a welfare cliff, does it carry classist/racist/sexist connotations or is it a neutral term?

    18. Like if I call what the NBA has created a welfare cliff, does it carry classist/racist/sexist connotations or is it a neutral term?

      It would be a neutral, but incorrect, use of the term.

    19. If course things could go wrong too, but most of upside we’ve been discussing is young players getting better. That won’t happen with all of them, but it’s very likely to happen with some of them. If I had to pick, I am not very optimistic about Dotson, but think Knox will contribute. Ntilikina will get a little better, but not enough to be a starter (but watch out in 2019-2020). Robinson will get better, but who knows how much. I have no idea about Hezonja, Kornet, Burke or Kanter

    20. The Sixers, as far as I can tell, haven’t been beneficiaries of revenue sharing during their “process”. In 2016, after losing 72 games, they were neither a contributor nor a recipient.

      I stand corrected on the Sixers.

      But the revenue sharing system is more than just a calculation of market size. San Antonio, for instance, pays into the system. As does Oklahoma City (after being subsidized for years during “the presti method”).

      There is little to zero incentive for a team like Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Milwaukee to try to make the playoffs before they luck into their star because if they make that revenue they forfeit their subsidies. It only makes sense to for it when you can build a sustainable team that can make the playoffs consistently. That usually requires years of tanking, which is bankrolled by the top of the league.

    21. It would be a neutral, but incorrect, use of the term.

      Thanks.

    22. Side question: Is the term “welfare cliff” politically loaded?

      Like if I call what the NBA has created a welfare cliff, does it carry classist/racist/sexist connotations or is it a neutral term?

      FWIW my feelings on welfare for NBA teams are completely independent and not related to human welfare, so I would hope it doesn’t carry the same connotation.

      In my opinion, the NBA has too many teams, and those can’t be sustained should be contracted for the better of the league. Human beings with the same problem, obviously, need a different solution.

    23. HUbert,

      I don’t know details of revenue sharing, but owners want other things than just a good yearly balance sheet. They also want the value of their franchise to go up, and winning makes franchises more valuable. They have big egos too. Consider Charlotte, how do you think Michael Jordan feels about winning? I can’t imagine him thinking “let’s not try to make the playoffs so I can get more revenue sharing”.

    24. They also want the value of their franchise to go up, and winning makes franchises more valuable.

      What makes you say that? The Knicks are the most valuable team in the NBA. The Clippers set a modern record when they were bought for $2bn in 2014.

      The NBA is a cartel, not a collection of independent businesses that survive on the merits of their balance sheet. That’s the European sports model.

    25. FWIW my feelings on welfare for NBA teams are completely independent and not related to human welfare, so I would hope it doesn’t carry the same connotation.

      Agreed. I believe in the state feeding poor people, but this is corporate welfare in a private organization. It’s strange.

    26. The Rockets then sold for more money than the Clippers. By market size alone, that shouldn’t be.

    27. The Forbes valuations and the actual prices paid are not wholly connected. Pretty sure the Forbes values are just a traditional economic valuation – teams with higher revenues are more valuable, and that will be the teams in big markets because in a league that incentivises (to a degree) competitive balance, the most predictable (and larger) revenues are those largely unrelated to winning.

      Actual prices paid also factor in overal market confidence in the NBA, but more importantly scarcity and non-economic factors. Franchises don’t come up often and have trophy value for individuals. Plus there’s a localism factor – Alexander was a Houston guy. Would he have paid the same for a non Houston franchise?

    28. Re the ‘European model’ – not uniformly. Many soccer clubs are loss-making and are propped up by billionaires. The Spanish duopoly is largely due to local TV deals being allowed. But yes – lower-level teams in particular are sensitive to market conditions and ultimately need to win to survive, at some level.

    29. Picking up on a couple of predictions posts – it really is hard to lose 60. 23-59 would have been the third worst record in most of the last few seasons – think since 2012 it would have been 2nd worst once and 4th worst once. It’s pretty much unheard of for more than two teams to finish in the teens for wins.

    30. Side question: Is the term “welfare cliff” politically loaded?

      If it is, it shouldn’t be.

    31. I’m pretty sure we’ll end up in the high 20s for wins as a floor and low 30s as a ceiling. The team is not going to try to lose, and if you actually try and win games and have any sort of talent, it’s hard to lose 55-60 games. i think we clearly have more talent (esp when KP is back) than the Nets did last year and they won 28 games.

    32. There is little to zero incentive for a team like Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Milwaukee to try to make the playoffs before they luck into their star because if they make that revenue they forfeit their subsidies.

      If this was true, how come none of these teams has done The Process? All of them have recently tried to put playoff teams together.

    33. If it is, it shouldn’t be.

      That’s not how language works.

    34. There is little to zero incentive for a team like Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Milwaukee to try to make the playoffs before they luck into their star because if they make that revenue they forfeit their subsidies.

      Per Larry Coon:

      “The plan makes teams responsible for meeting revenue benchmarks, based on the size of the market (determined on the basis of the number of TV households in the team’s designated market area) in which they play. Any team that falls short of its benchmark has to make up the difference in its contribution into the pool — in other words, teams are penalized for underperforming. Revenue benchmarks range from 65% (New Orleans) to 160% (New York and Brooklyn) of the league average revenues.
      Teams falling short of their revenue expectations are required to work with the league office to develop and implement a business improvement plan, which could include reorganizing business operations, hiring or replacing staff, or adopting new sales strategies. If a team fails to satisfactorily implement such a plan it could forfeit a portion of its revenue sharing payments (up to 25%).”

      It’s hard for me to see the incentivized losing embedded in this plan.

    35. If this was true, how come none of these teams has done The Process? All of them have recently tried to put playoff teams together.

      One plausible explanation is that sports franchises are prestige toys for billionaires. Makes them a local celebrity while providing long-term growth and, if they’re lucky, some positive cashflow.

      I would guess that most wealthy businessmen have little emotional capacity for sustained losing. Rather than face a long-term slog (which, indeed, may not work out), they make short-term moves to reposition themselves, and simply fire whoever had convinced them to make those errors.

    36. Many soccer clubs are loss-making and are propped up by billionaires.

      That’s fair, but they’re still an independent business, and if that billionaire loses his fortune or doesn’t want to continue with the cash injections, the ride’s over.

      Under the NBA model, for instance, Leeds would have stayed in the top league and been supported by Manchester United and Liverpool until they became financially viable again.

      I think I’ve said it here before, but one of life’s great ironies is that America has a capitalist society but for some reason loves to employ socialism in sports, whereas Europe is largely socialist but has ruthless capitalism in its football leagues.

    37. That’s not how language works.

      I guess language doesn’t work the way it used to work.

      Things used to mean something in a literal sense and now everyone is looking for every possible reason anyone on earth could be offended by some interpretation of it.

      The meaning is fairly simple.

      It’s when government benefits can cause a change in behavior.

      It’s kind of like when I was unemployed years ago and only wanted a part time job. The difference between the maximum unemployment benefit and my potential part time compensation was so small, I decided to not go to work until the benefits were closer to running out. What’s loaded about a basic sensible economic decision (not that I’m proud of it).

    38. I guess language doesn’t work the way it used to work.

      Back when America was great, no doubt.

    39. @35 – so let’s use your example. If you’re New Orleans and you are successfully making 65% of the benchmark, you can receive a subsidy from the league. Per the Lowe link above, if you were on the bottom of the league revenue chart, you’d have gotten $32 million in revenue sharing.

      New Orleans makes ~$365k per game in gate receipts (https://www.forbes.com/teams/new-orleans-pelicans/). Obviously a playoff game would bring in more. I’m not going to calculate it but let’s be generous and round it up to $1mm.

      You would need to play a lot of playoff games to offset giving up the $32mm in revenue sharing.

    40. If this was true, how come none of these teams has done The Process? All of them have recently tried to put playoff teams together.

      Probably for the same reason the Knicks keep trying to win 35 games.

    41. Things used to mean something in a literal sense and now everyone is looking for every possible reason anyone on earth could be offended by some interpretation of it.

      So should I go call someone “negro” because it literally means “black?” Since “black” is an acceptable term for a person of color, African American, etc., I see no reason that anyone would be upset by my chosen nomenclature.

    42. One plausible explanation is that sports franchises are prestige toys for billionaires. Makes them a local celebrity while providing long-term growth and, if they’re lucky, some positive cashflow.

      I would guess that most wealthy businessmen have little emotional capacity for sustained losing. Rather than face a long-term slog (which, indeed, may not work out), they make short-term moves to reposition themselves, and simply fire whoever had convinced them to make those errors.

      Plausible, but most likely wrong and at best partially correct. A much bigger reason is that coaches, GMs and players all want to win, and to tank to the degree that Hinkie did for as long as he did is both dangerous to one’s career (players, coaches and GMs) and very difficult to accomplish successfully even when trying. It is horrible PR-wise in the media, breeds resentment among peers, invites scrutiny by the commissioner, and alienates your fan base. It can also be quite expensive. And most of Hinkie’s success rides on two fragile foot bones.

      None of the teams in the NBA that have had sustained success over the past 20 years established that success by abjectly tanking over a long period of time. Some have done it for 1-2 years, but not by doing all of the aspects of “The Process.” Philly is pretty unique in that regard. And even the teams that did not prioritize winning and eventually turned the corner either made very shrewd personnel moves (smart drafting, good FA signings, lopsided trades) and/or got very lucky.

      And now with draft odds flattening, it isn’t as sound of a strategy as it was before.

    43. I think I’ve said it here before, but one of life’s great ironies is that America has a capitalist society but for some reason loves to employ socialism in sports,

      I don’t think that’s the correct way to think about sports in the US even though it’s a common perception.

      The Knicks compete with the Lakers in basketball, but they do not compete with the Lakers for market share and profits. Both the Lakers and Knicks compete with baseball, football, soccer, hockey, and other forms of entertainment for market share and entertainment dollars.

      Think of the NBA as a kind of major corporation with many subsidiaries. Subsidiaries in a major corporation often compete for budget, employees, promotions, bonuses etc… Some even provide the cash flow to support others because of strategic importance. However, the bigger picture is maximizing the whole.

      Each team in the NBA is really a kind of subsidiary of the NBA except there are private owners of each subsidiary voting and working together to maximize the whole like in a cooperative apartment. But there is no socialism. If you fail, your team will be moved.

    44. New Orleans makes ~$365k per game in gate receipts (https://www.forbes.com/teams/new-orleans-pelicans/). Obviously a playoff game would bring in more. I’m not going to calculate it but let’s be generous and round it up to $1mm.

      You would need to play a lot of playoff games to offset giving up the $32mm in revenue sharing.

      It’s interesting you choose New Orleans, a team that plays in a city that was effectively destroyed by a natural disaster forcing the NBA to assume control of the franchise to keep it afloat. In keeping with the “welfare” analogy, it was the foster child of the league.

      And yet this team, so disincentivized to win as you state, traded a rookie and two draft picks for DeMarcus Cousins. If that’s not a “win now” move, I don’t know what one is.

    45. Probably for the same reason the Knicks keep trying to win 35 games.

      Yes, correct. It is because teams are incentivized to win. (What exactly are you arguing? That every small market team is stupid for failing to see the incentives of losing basketball games? If so, that is absurd.)

    46. Strat, save yourself the headache. You can see where this is going/has already went. Go spend the day on a libertarian site and come back tomorrow.

    47. Last year, we won 29 games. at the 1/2 way point, we had won 19. I would say our “without KP” run rate is about 20 wins. I would value the loss of KOQ, the 15 games in 2nd half we had McBuckets, Lee getting older, at 2 games, so I’m down to 18. If we get KP back for a month or two, I think we get those 2 games back. Plus, last year, we were 3-1 vs Brooklyn, 1-2 vs Atl, 1-3 vs Orlando. So, 5-6 vs the shittiest of the shittiest. I bet we win 2 more. plus development of Burke, Frank, Knox, Robinson, Tim not missing 25 games, Kantor not missing 10…….I think that puts us around 25.

    48. So should I go call someone “negro” because it literally means “black?” Since “black” is an acceptable term for a person of color, African American, etc., I see no reason that anyone would be upset by my chosen nomenclature.

      The acceptability of a word should depend on its typical use and the intent of the user and not on the sensitivity of the most sensitive people in society.

      “negro” has become almost universally accepted as derogatory. So it’s mostly off limits.

      If someone called me goombah because of my mostly Italian descent, it might be one of my friends using it as a term of endearment or it might be someone trying to insult me. My reaction would depend on the intent. I think it’s idiotic to suggest no one should ever use the term goombah because some hypersensitive Italians are always insulted by it.

      Welfare cliff means that government benefits create incentives that can change behavior. That’s true for millions of people of all sizes, shapes, colors, religions, and ethnic backgrounds. It could be used in an insulting fashion (like goombah), but imo that doesn’t mean we should never use the term. Again, it depends on intent. People that are always insulted by it are like those hypersensitive Italians I referred to.

      I’d rather we were more sensible than we are slowly becoming.

      Most of my goombahs are, even the ones that have experienced the welfare cliff like me.

    49. Some + news
      The Deadwood movie is a go.
      https://news.avclub.com/against-all-odds-the-deadwood-movie-is-really-happenin-1827867532?rev=1532540623631&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SF&utm_content=Main&utm_medium=SocialMarketing

      now that truly is some news…man, i was broken hearted when i first got in to deadwood, then learned there was only a few seasons of it…

      al swearengen and dan dority have got to be a couple of my favorite characters of all time…it’ll be interesting to see which cast members make it in to the movie…

    50. You guys are vastly underrating the number of Knicks wins for this season. We now have NINE former top 10 picks on our roster:

      Burke
      Knox
      KP
      Frank
      Mudiay
      Hezonga
      Kanter
      Vonleh
      Noah

      That’s gotta be more than any other team in the NBA, right? 50 wins, baby!

    51. Jack McCall: Should we shake hands or something, relieve the atmosphere? I mean how stupid do you think I am?
      Bill Hickok: I don’t know, I just met you.

      Al Swearengen: [during a meeting with Johnny Burns, E.B. Farnum, and Jimmy Irons] I wanna know who cut the cheese. [nobody answers] I’ll tell you this for openers: we are gonna set off an area on the balcony. [opens the door to the balcony] And God help whoever doesn’t use it, because the next stink I have to smell in this office, and whoever doesn’t admit to it is going out the window, into the muck, onto their fucking heads, and we’ll see how they like farting from that position, okay?

    52. When making predictions about next year you need to take into account the inevitable injuries. This team is woefully short on talent and depth even under the rosiest assumptions. When you add in the injuries that happen every year I have a hard time seeing them being very successful. In the end this will be the best result if they come up with a top 3 pick in the draft (rather than the usual 7-9 slot). It will be hard to watch but the Knicks and us fans need to take our medicine and do it right for once.

      Can we go back to talking about scotch rather than politics? The McCallan 15 year or the Balvenie 12 year work for me every time.

    53. Ian McShane is a max player you can build a winning team around.

    54. Donnie, New Orleans was your example, not mine. Technically, it was Larry Coon’s example in your quote, but still, I didn’t choose them.

      Any team that falls short of its benchmark has to make up the difference in its contribution into the pool — in other words, teams are penalized for underperforming. Revenue benchmarks range from 65% (New Orleans) to 160% (New York and Brooklyn) of the league average revenues.

      ^ That’s from you.

      Also from you:

      And yet this team, so disincentivized to win as you state, traded a rookie and two draft picks for DeMarcus Cousins. If that’s not a “win now” move, I don’t know what one is.

      You’re changing things around now. My argument, from post 21, was:

      There is little to zero incentive for a team like Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Milwaukee to try to make the playoffs before they luck into their star because if they make that revenue they forfeit their subsidies.

      The incentive structure is different once you land Anthony Davis. My point was that it pays to play possum continually until you hit the lottery.

      Finally…

      a team that plays in a city that was effectively destroyed by a natural disaster forcing the NBA to assume control of the franchise to keep it afloat. In keeping with the “welfare” analogy, it was the foster child of the league.

      Katrina was in 2005 and was not the reason the NBA took over that team in 2010. George Shinn disgraced himself in Charlotte, pissed off the other owners, couldn’t afford to stay in the cartel, so the league bought him out until they could find a local owner.

    55. The acceptability of a word should depend on its typical use and the intent of the user and not on the sensitivity of the most sensitive people in society.

      Spoken like a true originalist! You could be the Honorable Antonin Scalia himself!

      Me, personally? I think the word “Redskin” is used as an honorable term for an Injun, and I intend to honor Injuns by referring to my favorite pigskin team as “Redskins,” and if you’re “sensitive” to that, you can just go fuck right off.

      My soon-to-be wife had a person very close to her die by suicide. You should come over and tell some jokes about shooting yourself in the head. Typically, jokes don’t constitute an act of violence, so you’re clear on the first point. On the second, you intended to make her laugh — no big deal! She should just stop being so sensitive, am I right?

    56. Can we go back to talking about scotch rather than politics? The McCallan 15 year or the Balvenie 12 year work for me every time.

      back in the day when i wore a younger man’s clothes; and, the great state of new york, in their wisdom, believed that if you were old enough to vote and enlist, you were fine to go out and drink – i somehow got it in my head that it would be really cool to order scotch and water when i went out…

      lord, that’s some wicked tasting stuff right there…

      these days, vodka, tequila, or rum for me…

    57. i somehow got it in my head that it would be really cool to order scotch and water when i went out…

      My first taste of scotch was Dewar’s White Label from a dregs of a bottle opened and sitting for at least ten years. Not good.

      If you haven’t had the fancy stuff, save your reservations for when you do. It’s like comparing a McDonald’s burger to Shake Shack’s. Barely the same thing.

    58. Can we go back to talking about scotch rather than politics? The McCallan 15 year or the Balvenie 12 year work for me every time.

      Am I the only Scotch lover that puts it away when the temperature is above 70? This is my tequila season. And I’ve been crushing the Casa Dragones Tequila Joven. The more affordable Blanco is also pretty delicious.

    59. My first taste of scotch was Dewar’s White Label from a dregs of a bottle opened and sitting for at least ten years. Not good.

      yep – that was it: dewar’s and water…

      i guess the positive from that was i never was able to drink it too fast…

      now this sounds like a very sound strategy:

      Am I the only Scotch lover that puts it away when the temperature is above 70? This is my tequila season. And I’ve been crushing the Casa Dragones Tequila Joven. The more affordable Blanco is also pretty delicious.

    60. The incentive structure is different once you land Anthony Davis. My point was that it pays to play possum continually until you hit the lottery.

      Aha, okay, yes I see where you are coming from now. Still, I think there’d be more visible evidence that teams are actually incentivized to lose if the league was truly designed that way. Orlando really doesn’t play to be in the lottery every year. Neither does charlotte, or Detroit, or Memphis, or any of the small market teams, whether they’ve made a lottery hit or not. Without any evidence of incentivized losing, shouldn’t the assumption be that there is none?

    61. I looked him up. He was drafted by the Celtics in 2017 with the 53rd pick and signed to two way contract and then played in G league. He’s a point guard. He’s on the G league all defense team but still scored 18 points a game with one game of 46 points. The Celtics waived him on July 15th, and it looks like the Knicks snapped him up.

    62. Feel like some roster moves still have to be coming. Even if you assume one Noah (Joakim) will be stretched on Sept 1 to make room for the other one (Vonleh), that still has us at the roster limit. Hopefully either or both of Courtney and Lance are traded for no returning players.

    63. I think they can have something like 20 players under contract for training camp. If i’m counting right, they now have eighteen or nineteen players under contract. So they will probably sign at least one more to a training camp contract.

    64. The Allen deal looks like it is potentially just a training camp deal. Reading that he was brought in to up the competitiveness of training camp. Regardless of whether he makes the roster, it is at least nice to see the FO targeting Defensive minded players.

    65. Kadeem Allen went to Arizona and was Trier’s teammate. Plays hard and generally a good defender, not sure he has NBA talent but not a bad pickup to take a flyer on.

    66. Reading up on him, it would be nice to have him floating around for the Westies. Seems to score relatively well for a player touted as a defensive stopper.

    67. @71, fascinating, who knew?

      Be sure not to overdo it though:

      “And there’s also the possibility of ruining the whiskey with water. “We have receptors on our tongue, in our nose, that are sensitive and depend upon the concentration of the specific components you want to detect with your nose and tongue,” Karlsson tells Kennedy. “So if it’s too diluted there’s a risk that you actually don’t detect it with your nose or your tongue.””

    68. People should do whatever feels right for them, but man, Vince Carter going to the Hawks just feels wrong.

    69. I’m happy for Troy. I have no idea why the Hawks want Carter when they are clearly rebuilding.

    70. You’d be surprised what a few drops of water can do to a scotch. It can even make the flavor stronger. I didn’t learn this until I went to a class with a scotch master.

      Also, for the wine fanatics, if you can ever go to a class with an actual wine master, do eeeettttt!

    71. I have no idea why the Hawks want Carter when they are clearly rebuilding.

      To be the Crash Davis to Trae Young’s inner Nuke LaLoosh?

    72. He’s definitely there for his veteran leadership, but Carter can still PLAY a little. It’s so weird to see him not just take a gig on, say, the Blazers or the Celtics or somewhere like that. I mean, don’t get me wrong, he wasn’t good last season, but nor was he awful. He still has some value. Hell, wouldn’t he be a decent fit on the Raptors?

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