Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, January 27, 2020

Knicks Morning News (2015.09.30)

  • [New York Times] Fever and Lynx to Meet in WNBA Finals in Rematch of 2012 (Wed, 30 Sep 2015 06:42:36 GMT)

    Four years ago, Tamika Catchings and the Indiana Fever came into the WNBA Finals as a huge underdog to Minnesota.

  • [New York Times] Rose’s Troubles Continue With Orbital Fracture (Wed, 30 Sep 2015 06:06:33 GMT)

    Derrick Rose’s troubled tenure with the Chicago Bulls took a fresh twist on Tuesday when he suffered a facial fracture from an accidental elbow during the team’s first day of practice.

  • [New York Times] Brittney Griner to Miss Start of Training Camp (Wed, 30 Sep 2015 03:55:00 GMT)

    Griner will miss the start of U.S.A. Basketball’s European training camp this week after she was suspended by the organization.

  • [New York Times] Bulls’ Rose Says Woman Consented to Group Sex (Wed, 30 Sep 2015 02:48:32 GMT)

    Chicago Bulls star Derrick Rose says in a court filing that a woman accusing him of sexual battery consented to group sex and became upset because she felt she should be reimbursed for a sex toy.

  • [New York Times] Fever 66, Liberty 51: Liberty Fall to Fever, Missing Chance at W.N.B.A. Finals (Wed, 30 Sep 2015 02:44:43 GMT)

    For the 19th straight year, the Liberty, one of the W.N.B.A.’s original franchises, will end the season without a championship. Indiana will face the Minnesota Lynx.

  • [New York Times] N.B.A. Roundup: Bulls’ Rose Faces Surgery After Injury to Eye Socket (Wed, 30 Sep 2015 02:25:07 GMT)

    Derrick Rose sustained a left orbital fracture after being elbowed in the face on the first day of practice.

  • [New York Times] Knicks Start Practice With a Coach of Fewer Words (Wed, 30 Sep 2015 01:03:12 GMT)

    Coach Derek Fisher plans to do less talking during drills and simply let the team practice and figure things out on its own.

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    47 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2015.09.30)

    1. GoNyGoNYGo

      Can we get our owner to show up like that? Who here thinks Prokhorov is a better baller than Bargnani?

    2. bobneptune

      Since others have made predictions as to the coming Knick season, as a fan since 1959, I’ll give my unsolicited opinion. I think we are in for a very watchable and interesting season.

      First, last season , after Melo was injured, the top 5 guys in minutes played weren’t real Nba players. Ja. Smith, Larkin, Acy… etc….

      This season there are three established pros starting: Melo, Lopez and Afflalo. Assuming a healthy and motivated Melo, Lopez is a reasonable Chandler lite that doesn’t need the ball, but can actually do some productive things with it on his own, but who seems happy to play his roll. Afflalo gets no love here but his best 2 .5 seasons were playing with Melo where Melo demanded all the defensive help and Afflalo could bomb away at a 40% clip.

      That brings us to Zinger and Grant. I fully expect Zinger to mature into a frontline NBA pro since he has physical tools, uncommon skillz for a 7-2 man and he has the “want to” thing down pat. How much he can contribute from jump street is a big variable, but he is going to do some amazing stuff right off the bat…. hopefully more good than bad.

      To me, Grant is the crux of the season. I don’t watch college much but his resume is crazy good. Led the ACC in assists, Assist/TO ratio, WS/40 and Offensive WS as well as minutes played and Free throws both taken and made. That’s pretty amazing.

      He played 4 years in two of the best college conferences and has an NBA ready man’s body. His father and uncle must have pounded him mercilessly as a teen growing up , and he hung around the NBA culture from a stable family, so he is less likely to have “issues” than the average rookie.

      If he can play big minutes from jump street, that frees Calderon to play the “Kidd Role” of old hand/offensive facilitator/ dead eye 3 ball shooter at the 2 off the bench.

      O’Quinn, Calderon, Williams and Galloway could make an interesting 9 man rotation.

      But the season Hinges on Jerian Grant

    3. GoNyGoNYGo

      I am so in agreement with you about Grant. I would take it a step further, he needs to become our PG of the future. So the next decade hinges on him. If he’s an all-star candidate (top 10 PG) then we have a future.

    4. massive

      Jerian Grant is going to piss a lot of people off with his jump passing. He fixes that issue and I think we have a player.

    5. Totes McGoats

      It wouldn’t surprise me at all if KP wins the starting PF spot. Probably better for Williams or O’Quinn to start at PF in name only(15mpg or so) , to allow KP to get his feet wet off the bench. Phil and Fisher keep intimating that KP will have every chance to win the gig, but if he does- there’s no way he doesn’t start. Unless of course, O’Quinn turns out to be a revelation that was stuck in a bench role in Orlando. I do think for what this team will do on both ends within the system, O’Quinn is a really good fit. My only question with him is, can he sustain what Phil and Fish thinks he can do with extended playing time? As far as KP goes, I think he will be groomed to play C. Think about it. How many great offensive weapons have we seen play PF in the triangle vs good to great Centers? Gasol is the only one, and KP’s bigger than he is- or will be. And Gasol only played PF mainly because they had a bigger guy playing C in Bynum, at least early on. He ended up sticking at PF in LA after being a C in Memphis. The other reason I think he’ll be a Center is because at 7’3″, with that skillset, he will be incredible at C once he grows into his body. Sorta like Sabonis was supposed to be, but better defensively. But for right now, the only forward on the roster capable of playing PF who is more talented than KP is…yup, Melo. So, I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see KP start as a rookie. He makes the right play more often than not, he doesn’t seem to jack up a shot just to say “see? I CAN score!”, and his wingspan and movement defensively at that size is only rivaled by Anthony Davis. KP has the potential to be a taller ass Marcus Camby..err taller rather. That’s pretty fan-frickin-tastic. Of course, he’s not guaranteed to be great, but no one can say that he’s not on his way. Kid’s got a great attitude and demeanor to go with his work ethic and natural ability.

    6. d-mar

      My sincere hope is that sometime in the near future, Atlanta Hawks fans (both of them) are bitching and moaning on Hawkerblogger about how they traded top 10 PG Jerian Grant for Tim Effin’ Hardaway, Jr.

    7. danvt

      great post #3

      My heart started beating fast as I read #4. I like that his favorite player growing up was Rod Strickland. If he has that kind of impact we are gonna make the playoffs.

      As to predictions, this may be a good team or not, but comparisons to last year’s team are meaningless.

    8. alsep73

      Porzingis as a center is intriguing, but unless the added muscle and coaching makes him a much better rebounder, he’d be at risk of becoming one of the worst rebounding centers of all time, no?

      (Though he’s also at risk of being a very poor rebounding PF, so it’s six of one, half dozen of the other, and would require him to be surrounded by guys who crash the boards hard.)

    9. danvt

      he’d be at risk of becoming one of the worst rebounding centers of all time, no?

      We should not conflate rebounding with weight. Look at the worm. His length and quickness made him a great rebounder. Maybe all the extra weight we make our seven footers put on turns them into Odens or Embids. Less weight on a frame can be healthy. Was Jabbar the heaviest guy? Being a teenager in a men’s league will hold down reb #’s. I’m not saying he’ll be an all timer but there’s no reason to assume the above. Especially if he uses his actual attributes.

    10. Totes McGoats

      My sincere hope is that sometime in the near future, Atlanta Hawks fans (both of them) are bitching and moaning on Hawkerblogger about how they traded top 10 PG Jerian Grant for Tim Effin’ Hardaway, Jr.

      Ha! Hawkerblogger…

      Also..I just hope that Hardaway Jr doesn’t go ape shit in his return to The Garden lol. If his confidence reaches Rookie-Sophomore Game proportions, I will Hulk Smash my tv

    11. DRed

      LOL, Jerian Grant. A real NBA GM traded him for Tim Hardaway Jr. after 18 other real NBA GMs decided he wasn’t worth drafting.

    12. ptmilo

      Will you recognize the Grim Reaper when you meet him? He might wear yellow and smile a lot.

      “The season hinges on Jerian Grant.”

    13. heavencent35

      Anyone want to create our FANTASY YAHOO BASKETBALL LEAGUE for us? Or should I be the one to create it (which is ok)
      Leave your email address please.
      Hope our admin can create a thread for interested participants :)

    14. danvt

      Will you recognize the Grim Reaper when you meet him? He might wear yellow and smile a lot.

      This is one of those things that I used to assume was some kind of inside thing that I don’t get. Now, perhaps I might think that no one else get’s it either. Is this about Jerian?

    15. GoNyGoNYGo

      @17 – not if you want to win ;)

      @10 – PK should not play center this year. It has nothing to do with his ability to do so but rather to keep things somewhat simple. He needs to learn one position and learn it well. We have backup centers on this team. He should play the 4 this year and then he can learn something new next year.

      @13 – How many teams passed on Tom Brady? How many times? We need to strike gold one of these years…and not give it away. I don’t think THjr is gold.

    16. danvt

      Neptune broke it down. He’s played well in good leagues. Was he overvalued at 19 or for THJR? Is there no way he could be a rotation player? Is it that obvious? If he does turn out to be a rotation player would that help us make the playoffs? Is anyone actually predicting that or are they just talking about him as a variable, if x (player) =? then y (team)=?

    17. Z-man

      I can see Porzingis playing C in a “small ball” lineup. He’s tall and fast enough so that an opposing <6'8" stretch 5 (e.g. Draymond Green) will have his hands full on both ends. I agree that he shouldn't play C vs. bigger, stronger C's like Marc Gasol, Boogie Cousins, etc.

      I would love to see how a lineup (in small doses) of KP, Melo (or Williams), Afflalo (or Thanasis or Cle), Grant and Galloway matches up with opposing small-ball lineups.

    18. Glew

      @16 I’d be interested my brother glewin203@gmail.com

      Has anyone been watching the Vice documentaries of Carmelo in Puerto Rico/Cuba? They are more about those locations and Melo brand more than about bball but I found em interesting plus there’s special guest appearance of the one and only Renaldo Balkman!

    19. Z-man

      All of my optimistic bluster aside, it’s silly to make any predictions about this totally rebuilt team until they play a few preseason games. I’m optimistic about KP and Grant, but who really knows? Who knows about whether Galloway and/or Early improve? Who knows whether Thanasis or Atkins or Trice or Saunders or Summers surprises? This team could win anywhere from 15-45 games. I’m with bobneptune in that no matter what, this will be a smarter, younger and better team that last year’s.

      The preseason games will be very telling. Not the end-all, but we should be able to tell whether this is a 31.5 win team or something different.

    20. max fisher-cohen

      Here are the best ten guys picked in the 17-21 range from 2009-2013:

      1) Ty Lawson
      2) Jeff Teague
      3) Eric Bledsoe
      4) Gorgui Dieng
      5) Avery Bradley
      6) Donatas Motiejunas
      7) Tobias Harris
      8) Terrence Jones
      9) Darren Collison
      10) Jared Sullinger

      Of those guys, the only ones who had a notable impact their first years were Lawson, Dieng, and maybe Sullinger, so that’s 2 or 3 out of 25 players. I like the little I’ve seen of Grant, but I would call us very lucky if he (or Porzingis) is able to even perform at the level of an average NBA player next season.

    21. JK47

      Of those guys, the only ones who had a notable impact their first years were Lawson, Dieng, and maybe Sullinger, so that’s 2 or 3 out of 25 players.

      Jerian is already 23 though and has played 4,000+ minutes of ball in the Big East and ACC, and his readiness on day one is one of his big selling points. He seems to me like a low-ceiling, high-floor player, which is not necessarily a bad thing. If you get a rotation player in the 17-21 range you’re doing all right. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Grant ends up being the best guard on the team, even as a rookie. He does a lot of things well and clearly seems to be a high-IQ player.

    22. Frank

      I like the little I’ve seen of Grant, but I would call us very lucky if he (or Porzingis) is able to even perform at the level of an average NBA player next season.

      No way, MFC has a pessimistic view on something!
      =)

    23. Frank

      Here are the best ten guys picked in the 17-21 range from 2009-2013:

      lemme turn this around on you:

      Here are all the PGs drafted in the 2nd half of the first round from 2009-2013

      True Holiday
      Ty Lawson
      Jeff Teague
      Darren Collison
      Eric Bledsoe
      Avery Bradley
      Greivis Vasquez
      Eric Maynor
      Roddie Beaubois
      Toney Douglas
      Nolan Smith
      Reggie Jackson
      Norris Cole
      Cory Joseph
      Tony Wroten
      Marquis Teague
      Dennis Schroder
      Shane Larkin
      Nedovic

      Out of all those dudes, I’d characterize them as follows (injury status not taken into account since that’s not a talent issue and probably is not controllable, and these are just rough estimates so please don’t tell me how bad Reggie Jackson’s TS is):

      Well above average: Holiday, Lawson, Teague, Bledsoe (4 out of 19)
      Above average or great potential: Bradley, Jackson, Joseph, Schroder (4 out of 19)
      Rotation player: Collison, Vasquez (2 out of 19)
      Roster-level player: Maynor, Cole, Wroten, Larkin (4 out of 19)
      Insufficient info: Nedovic 1/19
      Busts: DWTDD, Beaubois, Nolan Smith, M.Teague 4/19

      So I’d argue that we have a ~40% chance of a really good player, ~55% chance of at least a rotation player, and only a ~20% chance of a complete bust.

      Now if you narrow this down to just players picked between 16-25, then the list subtracts 6 players- Vasquez, TD, Cole, Joseph, M Teague, and Nedovic. So then 8 out of the 13 remaining players (61.5%) would qualify for at least “above average”.

      That’s the optimistic view.

    24. johnno

      I’m actually kind of surprised by MFC’s list at #32. Over a five year period, out of 25 guys drafted 17-21, 40% have turned out to be good to very good players. I’m surprised that the “hit rate” that late in the first round is that high. Same thing with Frank’s list at #35. That’s a lot of good point guards picked late in the draft. I agree that we would be lucky if Grant is an NBA-average player as a rookie. However, if he is NBA-average, that would be a huge upgrade over the production that the Knicks got out of the point guard position last year.

    25. massive

      Jerian Grant is athletic enough and seems smart enough to have a ceiling (and decent probability of becoming) of Denver Chauncey Billups. That’s a player I’d take on my team any day. I just look at him and see a heady floor general who never does too much. He just needs to stop the damn jump passing.

    26. Nick C.

      Unless you have a very loose definition of decent probability, I don’t know about Chauncey Billups. Billups was a regular all star and all-nba player in his prime, who may well be enshrined in the NBA Hall of Fame. Heady floor general who never does too much could also describe Charlie Ward or Eric Snow.

    27. Nick C.

      I would edit the above to add: Ward and Snow were both solid NBA players who were PGs for some very good teams that even made it to the finals IIRC.

    28. reub

      Why do I feel that if things break right we could be in contention for a championship? Would that be the biggest one season turnaround in history?

    29. Donnie Walsh

      Here are all the PGs drafted in the 2nd half of the first round from 2009-2013… That’s the optimistic view

      But MFC was specifically talking about contributions as a rookie. He was talking about THIS season, and not to expect Grant to be a savior at the point, or even very good. The evidence is good. It’s not even pessimistic. It’s just realistic. And it has nothing to do with whether Grant will grow into an above average player or not.

    30. GoNyGoNYGo

      @40 – I don’t think we’re ready for a championship (glances over to the team with LeBron on it). Let’s try and make the playoffs, or at least be in contention to get into the playoffs. While the ultimate goal is to win a title, after tearing the team apart last year, I’ll settle for a watchable season.

      I joined the Yahoo league and changed the team name to my handle here. It would be good to be able to easily associate owners to the handles here.

    31. Alecto

      Joined the league as alecto team name “You want the pipe?” since “you tryna get the pipe?” didn’t fit.

    32. DRed

      It’s fairly uncommon for a rookie to have a league average season, but it’s possible Grant does. His projections out of college aren’t great, but hey, that doesn’t mean he’s got no chance. Can he be the guy who takes us from a 27-34 win team to a playoff team? The list of PG’s in the last 10 years who were real difference makers as rookies is basically the list of guys named Chris Paul. And Jerian Grant is not named Chris Paul. So I’d say it’s extremely unlikely that Grant is going to be the key to the Knicks season. But so what? We’re not winning a title this year. He’s certainly got a real shot of being better than Tim Hardaway Jr., and if he can even develop into a league averagish point guard that is a swindle of a trade.

    33. Brian Cronin

      Why do I feel that if things break right we could be in contention for a championship? Would that be the biggest one season turnaround in history?

      If they won the title, sure. But otherwise, there have been some remarkable one season turnarounds in NBA history. Like the Celtics in their first year with Larry Bird or the Celtics in their first year with KG (where they won the title). Man…the Celtics have had way too much good fortune in their franchise history.

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