Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Saturday, November 17, 2018

How Many Wins Will The Knicks Have in the 2018-19 NBA Season?

I’ll admit, there is a part of me that just likes to use the fact that Polldaddy allows you to have lots of different poll questions!


I am going to go nuts and say 34, as I don’t believe that this team will ever actually tank.

73 comments on “How Many Wins Will The Knicks Have in the 2018-19 NBA Season?

  1. Bruno Almeida

    26-56.

    I hope it’s less, I expect it will probably be more, but that’s my pick.

    I have confidence in us as a collective to reach the right number with the average of all our opinions like last season.

  2. bockadoo

    With Kanter in the lineup we’re bad to mediocre. Without him we’re brutal. I’ll go with 28 scrappy, fun victories.

  3. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    23-59, for posterity. Lots of blow-outs, a few Ws to give hope, and a 64% chance to voluntarily pass on Zion in next year’s draft, because we all know that we can’t have nice things.

  4. geo

    P sure we’ve chased away the vast majority of Panglossian optimists by this point

    that’s funny…not sure though that it’s all the posters here…our knicks have a pretty well documented track record when it comes to wins and losses…

    still, the sun even shines on a dog’s ass some days…

    maybe we get a few breaks this year, and, get some surprise development from some of our younger guys…eventually this worm’s gotta turn, right?

    put me down for 26 wins, 56 losses…

  5. ptmilo

    i’m a strong supporter of more knickerblogger polls and poll threads for easy future reference. i’m here for the mid march game thread where we 538 the shit out of how many points Beas drops on his return to MSG. 24 wins.

  6. Ntilakilla

    If we get Zion does his ball-handling allow us to put Frank at the 1 to become a catch and shoot PG ala Chauncy Billups?

  7. Bruno Almeida

    Brian reached the peak of moderator efficiency, don’t even have to write anymore to keep us entertained, just post polls! That’s at least a .650 tb% (true blogging percentage)

  8. Z-man

    Well, at least Bruno and I agree on something! 26 wins, then we pass on Cameron Reddish and draft Orangon Blueish.

  9. Z-man

    I was listening to NBA Radio on the way home and heard Rick Mahorn say that the Warriors were a jargonot.

  10. vincoug

    If we get Zion does his ball-handling allow us to put Frank at the 1 to become a catch and shoot PG ala Chauncy Billups?

    He needs to learn to shoot before he can become a catch and shoot PG.

  11. Jack Bauer

    @11 – We can only hope that someday the Knicks can become a jargonot

    The first step on that road is losing enough to get a top 3 pick in next years draft.
    No pain, no gain

  12. heavencent35

    Thoughts about Kanter?

    He seems to be mediocre but a nice guy. If i will have a choice i want him to stay long tern with the Knicks for mid level. He could be our sixth man to our contender team,

  13. ptmilo

    Hayward doesn’t look like himself yet. And there’s a .01% chance that Covington caught Mackey Sasser syndrome from Fultz just before last year’s playoffs and it’s incurable.

  14. d-mar

    I’m an adult with adult-ass shit going on in my life, so I didn’t really invest in the r/nba days-to-go countdown that the rest of those idiots did, but boy am I glad it’s finally here.

    Man, me too, even the baseball playoffs are kind of boring.

    (Note: I checked my email, took a leak and wrote this post between pitches)

  15. ptmilo

    If we did a ‘will 48% TS Marcus Smart earn his new contract’ I feel like my yes group would be small and lonely, but plucky

  16. Ben R

    I was going to say 34 but since Brian guessed that one, I’ll say 35 wins. Not because we’ll be good but because we will refuse to tank and win like seven of our last ten games and go from bottom 3 to like number ten or so to close out the season.

  17. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    If Joel Embiid doesn’t stop turning the ball over he’ll be the most overrated player in the league by Christmas.

    Also, I’m going with 21 wins for these Knicks. We’re in basketball’s toughest division and I think we match up poorly versus everybody. Wins will be few and far between from jump unless Trey Burke is the guy he was from last season. If Trey Burke is a plus starter like he was last year, we might get closer to 28 wins.

  18. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    If Joel Embiid doesn’t stop turning the ball over he’ll be the most overrated player in the league by Christmas.

    Visions of 2016, when he was averaging the 4th-most TOV/poss. in league history but people were calling him the greatest prospect since Bill Russell.

  19. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    That Baynes 3PA will have been the ugliest looking made shot attempt of the year, and it’s October 16th.

  20. ptmilo

    the fact that there is a small but nonzero chance that simmons eventually figures out his shot is almost indescribably scary. he would immediately be a magic/lebron hybrid. it would be like every offseason you have to check and make sure curry didn’t grow six inches.

  21. Z-man

    If Joel Embiid doesn’t stop turning the ball over he’ll be the most overrated player in the league by Christmas.

    Funny, I was just thinking that Embiid might be one of the most overhyped players ever.

  22. DRed

    Jaylen Brown is 4-12. I think he’s pretty clearly not a bust but he also might just turn out to be a decent/good NBA player.

  23. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    Jaylen Brown may need to figure out how to score more points than FGA someday, but that shit was fearless. God damn.

  24. d-mar

    Agree about Brown. He’s not that good a shooter and a good defender, which makes him a decent player.

    (And BTW, despite the Kevin Harlan/Reggie Miller over the top hyperbole, that was not a facial by Brown on Embiid. The ball went in accidentally.)

  25. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    Thunder minus Westbrook, right? Warriors win by 40? (What a loss that the league couldn’t have Durant/Westbrook for opening night.)

  26. Z-man

    Jaylen Brown is not quite 22 yet, and is already more than a “decent/good NBA player.” At age 21, he played 2100+ minutes and 580 playoff minutes as a starter on a team that was 1 game from the finals. He had a .562 TS%, shot 39.5% from 3pt range on 5 attempts per 36 during the regular season and put up almost exactly the same stat line (a bit better, actually!) in the playoffs in more mpg! He’s a very good defender and rebounder for a 2, and can physically dominate other 2’s both in the halfcourt and transition with his size and speed. I get that he’s not James Harden, but to say that he “might just turn out to be a decent/good NBA player” is really selling him short. If Frank put up that level of regular season stats this year, we’d be dancing in the streets!

    If anything, Brown is not a great passer or FT shooter. But he’s a very solid 2-way player with star potential, I don’t know how anyone can objectively say otherwise.

  27. Z-man

    And BTW, despite the Kevin Harlan/Reggie Miller over the top hyperbole, that was not a facial by Brown on Embiid. The ball went in accidentally.

    Definitely, I can’t even listen to Miller.

  28. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

    Like last year, I totaled up all the predictions for 2018-2019. Unlike last year, I am not predicting the average of everyone’s picks. I think Kanter will be a beast this year and make us better. The Vegas line is apparently 29.5, and it is historically more accurate than the pundits. So I am predicting slightly better than that at 30 wins. Everyone’s predictions so far are shown below. There are 27 predictions with an average prediction of 27 wins. Note that I ignored the predictions that had ifs in them, like if Porzingis plays more than 2o games it will be x, otherwise y. Predictions are as of 11pm Eastern time.

    GoNyGoNyGo: 25 wins
    TNFH: 26 wins
    Bruno: 26 wins
    Nick C.: 26 wins
    Kevin5318: 26 wins
    Silky: 24 wins
    Henry George: 36 wins
    Thenamesstam: 29 wins
    Jowles: 23 wins
    Half Rebuilt: 19, then 21 wins
    GHenman: 30 wins
    Owen: 24 wins
    Oakman: 25 wins
    Max: 28 wins
    Jack Bauer: 27 wins
    d-mar: 28 wins
    geo: 26 wins
    vincoug: 22 wins
    Frank O.: 32 wins
    Bockadoo: 28 wins
    ptmilo: 24 wins
    Z-man: 26 wins
    MKinLA: 24 wins
    Ben R: 35 wins
    NahNah…: 22 wins
    Brian Cronin: 34 wins
    KnickfannotinNJ: 30 wins

  29. nicos

    I’m going 28 just because my guess is that will be just enough wins to put them out of the running for Zion, Cam, and R.J. If everything goes right (KP comes back healthy in January, Burke is last year’s model, etc…) they could creep up into the 30s. More likely, Burke reverts back to Utah Burke, KP comes back rusty or very late in the year, the young guys all struggle and the team wins in the low 20s.

  30. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    Is it just my Knicks fandom or is literally anybody better than Reggie Miller? I hate everything he says.

    Jaylen Brown is a good ball player and should be a quality starter for a long time but there’s no star potential in him. At least not until he’s actually a star because I refuse to acknowledge anything good about the Boston Celtics.

  31. Brian Cronin Post author

    I was going to say 34 but since Brian guessed that one, I’ll say 35 wins. Not because we’ll be good but because we will refuse to tank and win like seven of our last ten games and go from bottom 3 to like number ten or so to close out the season.

    Ha, that’s basically how I got to 34.

  32. Brian Cronin Post author

    I’m not saying that the Sixers definitely made the wrong decision, since they should have internal growth, but punting on improving their team with free agents (and actually losing a couple of decent veteran players) seems like it was not the best idea. Not this first game, as who cares about one game, but just in general.

  33. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

    I didn’t see this game, but I did listen to a podcast with Jeff Van Gundy and he thinks Boston will win the East and gives whoever comes out of the West a real matchup. Based on this score, he could be right.

  34. wetbandit

    24. Not one player with positive value on opening night. I just think other teams will make lineup decisions to tank harder than we will at the end.

  35. Mike Honcho

    Put me on the board for 28. That feels about what we’re capable of, though I could see us getting to 32+ if Porzingis plays enough of the season.

  36. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

    I can’t believe the refs just negated that Durant crossover and drive, and then called Schroeder on a clear path foul for breathing on Curry during a fast break.

  37. latke

    I’ll take 20 wins. The rumors about the Knicks really looking to move Lee combined with the fact that we didn’t go out and sign more veteran players like we did last summer have me hopeful that the front office at least this season has the right priorities and will not push to win close games by overplaying veterans in lieu of getting more reps for young guys.

  38. bidiong

    I’m going to go with 32 because that’s likely to screw us over in the draft. That’s the way we do here.

  39. Jack Bauer

    @51 That is some good number crunching

    @62 That is some good Knicks logic, I hope you’re wrong but I just know you’re not and they’ll be drafting 7-10 again.

  40. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

    Before reading the thread, I answered 26 in the poll, which turns out to be the most popular guess. After reading, I’m feeling more pessimistic, and want to say 28 – just bad enough to miss out on the top 4. So I’ll compromise and say 27, with us all waiting on a coin toss for draft position. (Do the new rules/lottery weights still have coin tosses?)

  41. JK47

    What’s the most annoying number of games this team could possibly win? Because that’s how many they’re going to win.

    #DolansRazor

  42. Ingmarrrr

    21 wins plus 40 percent of the games KP plays. If I’m pressed to give a number, I’d say he plays in 14 games, which adds 5.6 wins. So 26.6, aka 27.

  43. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

    Here’s an update on win predictions with the latest adds. There were 35 numerical predictions with an average win total of 26.7 wins. The lowest prediction was by Latke and was 20 games. The highest prediction was by Henry George and was 36 games. The median prediction was 26 wins and the distribution was reasonably symmetric with 19 predicting under the average win prediction and 16 predicting over the average win prediction. This board thus seems more pessimistic than Vegas (which had an over under of 29.5), but in line with external pundits who seem to be uniformly writing off the Knicks as a competitive team this year. Details are below:

    GoNyGoNyGo: 25 wins
    TNFH: 26 wins
    Bruno: 26 wins
    Nick C.: 26 wins
    Kevin5318: 26 wins
    Silky: 24 wins
    Henry George: 36 wins
    Thenamesstam: 29 wins
    Jowles: 23 wins
    Half Rebuilt: 19, then 21 wins
    GHenman: 30 wins
    Owen: 24 wins
    Oakman: 25 wins
    Max: 28 wins
    Jack Bauer: 27 wins
    d-mar: 28 wins
    geo: 26 wins
    vincoug: 22 wins
    Frank O.: 32 wins
    Bockadoo: 28 wins
    ptmilo: 24 wins
    Z-man: 26 wins
    MKinLA: 24 wins
    Ben R: 35 wins
    NahNah…: 22 wins
    Brian Cronin: 34 wins
    KnickfannotinNJ: 30 wins
    Chrisko6811 23 wins
    Nicos: 28 wins
    Wetbandit: 24 wins
    Mike Honcho: 28 wins
    Latke: 20 wins
    Bidiong: 32 wins
    Rama: 27
    Ingmarrr: 27

  44. Max

    I confirm my previous 28 wins…
    And, judging from the poll, this put me in the semi-optimistic bunch…

    :-)

  45. alsep73

    I picked 28, which felt both like more than they should win if we’re tanking, and also the average of a roster without Porzingis and one with him.

  46. Z-man

    I’m actually considering lowering my estimate down to 22 before tip-off. It’s hard to imagine winning one out of every 3 games. 1 out of 4 seems more realistic.

    So much depends on total unknowns. How much will KP play, and will he be effective when he does? How far do the young players (especially Knox, Mitch and Trier) develop? How much does Burke regress (or improve?)

    But after sleeping on it, 26 is definitely feeling too high.

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