Knicks 2017 Roundtable: Season Wins

The Vegas line is 38.5, if I set it to 40.5, are you going over or under?

Fisher-Cohen: The Knicks registered assists on 62.6% of their preseason field goals and finished preseason with the 5th best offense. Last season, they only assisted on 55.7% of their field goals. Unfortunately, it’s the preseason… The Kings finished with the 6th best offense. It gives me something to hope for this season, but I don’t expect the Knicks to be a great offensive team, and one talented yet injury prone center won’t make up for terrible perimeter defense. We’ve seen that movie before back when it starred Tyson Chandler.

Anyway, my biggest concern with this team is Rose, who barely played this preseason. To me, he’s the new late Knicks era Stoudemire — the same weak defense, the same star power to demand minutes and shots. The main difference is Rose is far less efficient. I expect him to be this team’s albatross. This team has a lot of parallels to the team Jackson inherited in 2014 in terms of contracts, age and current talent, and I expect it to perform similarly. If you told me Rose would go down early or Hornacek would have the balls to bench him and the presence to keep it from becoming a distraction, I would probably take the over, but right now, I have to go under.

Also, as of 10/4, Vegas had the Knicks at 40 wins.

Kurylo: You can look at this team and see lots of things to be optimistic about. Let’s start with the most obvious: Porzingis. He’s almost certain to get better, the only question being how much better. Is he a future All Star? A top 10 player? A generational talent? Only time will tell.

The signing of Hornacek was another plus for the front office. If nothing else, it showed that the team wasn’t afraid to correct their mistake, or at least the mistake of hiring Derek Fisher. “Checkers” wasn’t awesome in Phoenix, but he did well with what he had. Even if he doesn’t turn out to be a success, it will only be a bad move from hindsight. Right now it’s a solid choice.

The next big plus is the addition of Joakim Noah. New York needs a defensive minded center to play alongside Melo, and a healthy Noah gives them exactly that. His energetic play will be a plus for Gardenites, who will likely cheer bigly for their hometown hero.

But I’m not an optimist, and there’s a dark side to this team as well. The PG position is in shambles, and I’m having a hard time wondering if Derrick Rose missing 20 games is going to be a good thing for the team given their lack of depth. The franchise has lacked a good PG since Marbury took his talents to Asia. In the 11 seasons since this blog’s inception, only 6 Knicks have managed 1500+ minutes and 4.5 ast/36, — and the list isn’t exactly a group you’d be proud of. (For fun – try to name the 6 PGs in the comments.)

But PG isn’t the only problem. I talked about ‘Melo yesterday, and how his production is fading. The overall defense is questionable. And if Noah gets hurt for an extended period, this team is going to flail their way to 32 games again.

It’s a transition year, not a year to dream about a deep playoff run. Last year I hit the bullseye with my prediction, and I’d be happy if they won more than the 37 games I foresee. Save yourself the heartache and go with the UNDER.

Plugh: Setting the number at 40.5 instead of 38.5 makes all the difference in the world to me. At 38.5 I would feel comfortable taking the OVER. I’ve been feeling confident about the Knicks being at .500 with a plus or minus of 2 games. Two games under 41 is 39, so cool. OVER. Setting it at 40.5 means I have to hit it right on the money and I’m just not super confident that they’re good enough to hit .500 for sure. The wiggle room was nice on the Vegas line.

I like Max’s comparison of Rose and Stoudemire. It does feel similar, and I hadn’t made that connection. Of course the problem is the star power/minutes formula vs. the defensive liability and usage issues. Health is worrisome. Defense, generally, is worrisome. I could continue to tick off my concerns about the team and arrive at UNDER, but unlike Kurylo, I am an optimist and I think there’s an outside shot the team could be really good. The smart bet is probably that they’re not going to be very good, but I’m going to say OVER because I continue to believe in two important things. 1) Porzingis is going to make a leap this season and semi-take over the identity of the club. It’s still going to be Melo’s team in most ways, but the dirty little secret that will evolve over the next 2-3 seasons is that Porzingis is alpha and omega. 2) Joakim Noah will have a Jason Kidd effect on the ball club. His presence on the court, and ability to share the rock, will impact the team more than his actual production. His defensive spirit will coax the team to be better than miserable, even if he can’t do what he used to, and even though none of his teammates are actually very good at defense. Those predictions, admittedly, aren’t born out by any statistical model, but I think I feel comfortable with them based on stylistic precedent. OVER.

Topaz: Maybe Schrödinger was a Knicks fan. The team may have the widest possible win-loss range this year for any team in the NBA. There’s a universe in which the Knicks win 48-50 games—if Rose is healthy and effective, if Noah stays healthy to anchor a formidable frontcourt defense, if KP makes a big leap. There’s another universe in which they win 30-32 games—if Noah and Rose continue to regress and/or get injured, if Melo takes a step back, etc. Another unpredictable year for an unpredictable franchise.

When in doubt, though, go with what you know. I keep thinking about this Chris Herring tweet from January. We know that the Knicks have failed to address their biggest problem from last year (or the past half decade): point guard defense. We know that Rose has always been a bad shooter and has been an inefficient scorer the past three years when healthy. We know that Noah is 31, an extremely physical player whose body is likely breaking down, and had a 41 TS% (!) in 29 games last year. We know that while the Knicks are deep at the forward position (Hi Lance!) they are awfully thin at point guard and center—where, as it stands, the team has its most injury-prone starters. We know that 21-year-olds sometimes need time to develop before we demand yet another breakout season from them. We know that the offensive spacing will likely get really ugly, really quickly if Melo or KP have to miss extended time.

It could all work out. But it’s likelier that it won’t—there are just too many 50-50 balls that have to go in the Knicks favor. I’ll take the UNDER at 37 wins.

Udwary: As everyone mentioned, this is a really tough team to predict for the season, but I think it’s easy to predict the beginning of the season. We have three new starters who weren’t on the team last year, two of whom missed several preseason games, and a new coach installing a new system. I would expect the team to be a mess early on, but once they start getting used to playing together and in this system they can be a formidable team. How many games will that take? 20? 30? By then I would start to worry about injuries. I think the under would be the safe bet, but the over is not out of the question with a healthy Noah and Melo. My prediction for the season is something like a 12-20 start, but a late push, just missing the 8 spot in the playoffs with a 41-41 finish. OVER! There is no way I would bet real money on that line, though. There are just way too many question marks surrounding this team.

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Mike Kurylo

Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

126 thoughts to “Knicks 2017 Roundtable: Season Wins”

  1. Assuming everyone stays relatively healthy, 37 wins (-+3), missing the playoffs. This team has very little talent, most of it on the decline. Porzingis is our only ray of hope.

  2. I just hope they either clear or miss the O/U by 10+ games. A multi-round playoff run is always fun (even if still not worth the long term costs of some of our moves, but whatever), and another high pick would obviously be nice as well. It’s very difficult to see what a 35-to-43 win season does for us in the short, medium, or long term. My main criticism of Phil’s off-season was that it seemed geared towards this exact outcome, but guess we no longer have to wait to find out!

  3. This team has very little talent,

    Damn this is a weird statement. They have top 5 in the east talent. I don’t know how you can make that statement. They will win 50 games even

  4. Under at 38.

    Vegas currently has Cleveland NY at -9.5 Cleveland

    I think the Knicks will beat the spread but still lose–this is the kind of game where the Knicks overperform and everyone goes crazy about how D-Rose went off for 28. Cavs by 5.

  5. Over at 45.

    And the over/under for number of combined posts by THCJ, Theo and JK47 after Derrick Rose’s first 7-22 game: 50

  6. Big game tonight. CLE is getting their ringz, so they may be emotionally unprepared for a team coming in with an attitude trying to prove itself, and they really have no way to game plan for the Knicks. Even though the Knicks are unfamiliar with each other, they have four seasoned vets and a promising young stud in the starting lineup, with a bench that is also tough to game plan for. I think that emotion and unfamiliarity works for the Knicks tonight. Not the end of the world if they lose, but this is definitely an important statement game for them, much more so than it is for the Cavs.

  7. Just for intrigue, I love the matchups in the starting lineups:
    Melo vs. LeBron
    Rose vs. Irving
    KP vs. Love
    Noah vs. Thompson
    Lee vs. JR
    All starters healthy and ready to go, no excuses!
    Should be fun to watch!!

  8. The Stoudemire/Rose comparison is a little sloppy. Rose’s skillset meshes better with the personnel and scheme than STAT did in 2012/2013.

  9. Plugh and I are right on the same page. I’ll take the under, but just barely. I’ve come around to 40-42, but even if I hit the number exactly I won’t be bragging because the truth is I have no idea how good this team is going to be. I won’t be shocked at all if I miss by as much as 8 wins high or low. I love Porzingis. I love Noah-if-healthy (official new spelling of his name). I like Melo for one more really good season. But as much as I want to, I just can’t convince myself buy into the hype on the rest of the roster despite a good preseason. Until these guys prove it in actual NBA games that count I have to sell.

    That said, I think we win tonight. Cavs will be riding an emotional roller-coaster through the pregame ceremony and I think it gives us a nice edge.

  10. I am with Topaz. The only way this team excels is in the very low probability that everyone stays healthy. We’re too thin at certain positions to excel if our main starters are out for an extended period of time. Should we lose KP, Melo, Rose, Noah for an extended period of time our bench won’t be able to carry the load.

  11. I’m stuck at trying to name the six points guards. One is probably Prigioni… Another might be Kidd, but I’m not sure he played enough minutes. One might actually be Felton. Any thoughts?

  12. Most of those are just small bets. If you’re just putting a small sum on a long shot, betting on a return to form for Rose and Noah and more growth from KP in his 2nd season at 100-1 is one of the more enticing long shots on the board. Reality is most of those people are likely aware that the Knicks are in all likelihood not winning a title this season or coming close.

  13. yeah people don’t understand the idea of betting on a long shot? Like yeah, its very unlikely the Knicks win a championship. That’s why some people bet on them though. If they win and its 100-1 and you put down 100 dollars you would make a ton of money. Its called gambling.

  14. Is there a reverse bet for the Knicks not to win the title? Like you put up $10,000 and win $10 if they don’t? I would think that would be very enticing to THCJ et al.

  15. I really hope none of the high 30s/low 40s estimates here come to pass for the reasons I talked about earlier. Unfortunately that really does look like the most likely scenario, and I just don’t know how it could be spun positively. Even if we’re “lucky” enough to be the Cavs’ warm up dummy, is that really worth it?

  16. Anyone who feels the urge to donate $100 to a Vegas casino on the Knicks at 100-1, I would urge to consider giving to a charity of your choice instead. I understand betting on a longshot, but you have to actually get value from the odds. Does anyone really want to make the case that 1 out of 100 times we win the title this year?

    I’m stuck at trying to name the six points guards. One is probably Prigioni… Another might be Kidd, but I’m not sure he played enough minutes. One might actually be Felton. Any thoughts?

    Felton I would think is definitely in. Duhon as well.

  17. Duhon
    Felton
    Kidd
    TDDWTDD (very iffy on this one)
    Lil Nate
    Calderon

    That’s my stab at it

  18. Put me down for 50 wins. We will need a lot of breaks (or non-breaks?) to accomplish this gaudy win total, but I think we are due for a streak of good fortune, after the last few horrible seasons.
    #PrayingToTheBasketballGods

  19. I understand betting on a longshot, but you have to actually get value from the odds.

    Well yes. There are 30 teams in the league, and about 3-5 who are in tank mode sooo yeah the odds are fine. Injuries are a thing and the knicks could be good on top of it. If you took the name “Knicks” off of this you wouldn’t have a problem with it. Smh

  20. One is probably Prigioni… Another might be Kidd, but I’m not sure he played enough minutes. One might actually be Felton.

    Prigioni & Felton are correct.

    Kidd is not.

    4 more…

  21. Felton
    Duhon
    Lin
    Prigs
    Baron D?
    Bibby?

    Man, I don’t know. That’s just sad.

    Anyway, not changing my earlier prediction from a couple months ago – 43 wins. That is taking into account bad play from Rose, 20 missed games from Noah, 1o missed games from Melo. But also, steady play from Lee, surprising play from the bench, a step forward for Zinger, and good coaching from Horny. I think good coaching is actually the key; Fish would have the same team at 39 wins.

  22. NOPE – TDDWTDD (very iffy on this one)
    NOPE – Lil Nate
    YES – Calderon

    3 left

    Nate definitely did this. And Marbury of course. What’s strange is they may well have 2 guys do it this year (Rose and Noah) and there’s a tiny but nonzero chance they have 4 (Melo and Jennings).

  23. jamal crawford wasn’t a pg but he did average ~4.5/5 assists/36 one year

  24. We have Calderon, Prigioni, and Felton.

    Lin
    Baron D?
    Bibby?

    All nope.

    The keys are 1500 minutes so you know guys that didn’t play a lot of minutes are out and the ast/36 (which would exclude shooting guards masquerading as PGs).

    There is one that I’m pretty sure no one will get without looking at rosters/stats.

    The other two are really obvious.

  25. Nate definitely did this. And Marbury of course. What’s strange is they may well have 2 guys do it this year (Rose and Noah) and there’s a tiny but nonzero chance they have 4 (Melo and Jennings).

    Marbury is the 4th.

    Nate did it for one year, but not over the course of his Knicks’ career.

  26. Nate did it for one year, but not over the course of his Knicks’ career.

    Oh i misunderstood the Q. So one is missing (Duhon has been named above). I cheated so I won’t say the 6th.

    40 wins.

  27. Forget the odds. It’s just stupid to bet $100 on the Knicks winning a title this year. That’s the very definition of a sucker bet.

  28. Forget the odds. It’s just stupid to bet $100 on the Knicks winning a title this year. That’s the very definition of a sucker bet.

    Makes you think: What is the second most misguided thing ever written on Knickerblogger?

  29. Well yes. There are 30 teams in the league, and about 3-5 who are in tank mode sooo yeah the odds are fine. Injuries are a thing and the knicks could be good on top of it. If you took the name “Knicks” off of this you wouldn’t have a problem with it. Smh

    So because there’s only 25 teams trying to win the title, getting 100-1 is good value? You know that’s not actually how this works right? Anyway, if you wanted to make a longshot bet,one I like a lot better is the Rockets at 200-1.

  30. Forget the odds. It’s just stupid to bet $100 on the Knicks winning a title this year. That’s the very definition of a sucker bet.

    You can say that about any non warrior/spur/cavs bet……….that’s why you would get $100,000 if you hit it. Im not sure you understand how this works.

  31. So because there’s only 25 teams trying to win the title, getting 100-1 is good value? You know that’s not actually how this works right? Anyway, if you wanted to make a longshot bet,one I like a lot better is the Rockets at 200-1.

    Whats the difference….lol? I’d bet that too if I was a bettor.

  32. Those who believe getting 100-1 odds on the Knicks winning a title this year is not a sucker bet, should take advantage of the “opportunity” and bet 10 thousands, for a nice million dollar payout!

    The most interesting thing about this bet, though, is how it reflects what people really think of the Kicks as a team. Sad, but true: we have a pretty bad roster.

  33. The team may have the widest possible win-loss range this year for any team in the NBA.

    I agree with Topaz. I can see this team winning 55 games. I can also see them winning 25. The average of that puts them at 40 wins, which is under the 40.5, but if I were a betting man I would put them at 42-45 since I think there’s enough depth to withstand anything but devastating injuries to starters. I also have a theory about the year after a player recovers from an injury.

  34. Well yes. There are 30 teams in the league, and about 3-5 who are in tank mode sooo yeah the odds are fine

    So, I guess you would think that with only 4 presidential candidates, betting $100 on Gary Johnson at 100-1 odds is even better!

  35. Sorry I missed Duh.

    Calderon, Prigioni, Felton, Marbury, Duhon and ???

    HINT: I’ve called Derrick Rose the second coming of [6th PG].

    Steve Francis?

  36. Trying to project this team from a Four Factors perspective, I see it something like this: the offense will be bottom third because of team-wide eFG% problems. There are not enough high-efficiency players who will provide easy buckets. The Knicks don’t look to me like they will be outstanding in any of the other Factors on offense, but will likely be middle of the pack. So I’d expect the offense to rank, I dunno, somewhere between 20 and 25. On defense they could be pretty good, maybe top 10 even, and because of their length and strong rim protection they should do a good job in defensive eFG%. The main weakness of the defense looks to me like it will be the same weakness as last year: inability to generate turnovers. So I’d expect the defense to be better than average, and will rank somewhere between 10 and 15.

    So as a rough estimate I’d say to expect something like 37-41 wins, in line with what most projection systems are saying. Which, of course, is basketball purgatory. Not bad enough to end up with a high lottery pick, not good enough to truly contend. Not a great scenario for a “win now” team that has several players in their 30’s locked into long-term commitments. The path to future title contention does not look all that rosy, and hinges on Anthony and Noah holding off decline for as long as possible, scoring a true star PG with Derrick Rose’s cap space and adding rookies who were drafted out of the top 10. Maybe Phil will thread that needle! Probably not.

    But I guess purgatory is better then hell. #Knicks

  37. 39 wins pops in my head which would be the under but I see them in the 39 to 43 win range. So I will split the difference say 41 and over.

  38. So, I guess you would think that with only 4 presidential candidates, betting $100 on Gary Johnson at 100-1 odds is even better!

    Although Gary Johnson more represents our team in some ways (I can see Phil Jackson being interviewed by let’s say Kevin Pelton and say “And what is a true shooting percentage”), we’re really more Vermin Supreme in terms of championship odds.

  39. Steve Francis is the last one!

    Is the 1500 minutes limit aggregate or within the single season because I checked your work, and it looks like Francis qualified in 05-06, but the majority of his minutes were with Orlando (only 659 with the Knicks). The next year was his only full Knicks year and he only played 1237 minutes. So he never had a season which qualifies, although his overall Knicks tenure does.

  40. Like a lot of folks I have them at somewhere between 38-42 wins barring Noah missing 20+ games or KP making the jump to all-NBA this year. I guess I’ll be optimistic and take the over. I think they’ll be middle of the pack on both sides of the ball- I think the efg% will rise a bit because of pace and shot selection but turnovers will rise a bit as well. If Noah can play 65+ games rebounding on both sides should improve. I think the Knicks will force a lot more turnovers this year- Noah’s aggression on the perimeter, increased awareness from KP (who should get a ton of deflections) and generally non-passive guards (especially at the two) should all help. If everything breaks right- KP makes a solid improvement, Noah stays healthy, and Rose isn’t the total train wreck he’s been the last couple of years then 50 wins isn’t totally out of the question. It’s more likely it goes in the other direction though (Rose still stinks, Noah misses a lot of time, etc…) and they wind up right around where they were last year. Still, I’m going with 42-40, so over.

  41. Is the 1500 minutes limit aggregate or within the single season because I checked your work, and it looks like Francis qualified in 05-06, but the majority of his minutes were with Orlando (only 659 with the Knicks). The next year was his only full Knicks year and he only played 1237 minutes. So he never had a season which qualifies, although his overall Knicks tenure does.

    Career, not single season. Nate and a few others had a single season where they had 1500 MP + 4.5 ast/36. As a Knick, Francis had 1500MP and +4.5 ast/36.

    I’m splitting hairs tho.

  42. Some of you better start getting your excuses ready because you’re going to be very embarrassed this year

  43. UGH, the annual Knickerblogger ritual of projecting wins is a silly exercise. I am happy to try to hijack this thread by posing these more interesting questions:

    (1) What’s probability of NYK winning EC
    (A) if LBJ suffers season-ending injury before playoffs
    (B) if LBJ stays healthy through playoffs

    (2) Probability KP exceeds Pau/Dirk’s 2nd year average of .135 WS/48

    (3) Probability one of our new young players exceeds .150 WS/48 in 500+ minutes

  44. What if 2 trains are heading in opposite directions with individual WS’s of 1.38? If they meet in a forest did it really happen?

  45. I don’t listen to talk radio much anymore, but I checked out Carton & Boomer today — about half way through talking about the Knicks.

    Carton is saying it’s indisputable that the Knicks are a .500 team, then went on saying that only 2 teams in the East were better than them.

    A few centuries from now, alien historians will look back on the rubble of our planet, find records of this era, and decide that it’s the media that destroyed our civilization. That complete idiots with no ability to be rational or logical were given the ability to get their opinions in the heads of millions of people and affect their judgement.

  46. What if 2 trains are heading in opposite directions with individual WS’s of 1.38? If they meet in a forest did it really happen?

    Only if they have bear crap on their shoes as proof.

  47. We won 32 games last season. Going from 32-50 is not easy.

    Robin to Noah-Noah is probably better, but how many more wins better?

    Melo-Melo- probably a wash, maybe a tick better

    Afflalo-Lee-should be worth a couple more wins

    KP-KP-could be significantly better

    Jose-Rose-who fucking knows. Could be better, could actually be worse.

    Bench-probably better, but barring a miracle we’re talking a couple wins.

    So to get anywhere near 50 we’re going to need Noah to play like his old MVP candidate self and KP to become a legit all star while nothing goes wrong. That doesn’t sound very likely, does it?

  48. I am sad to take the Under. I expect the Knicks to win 38 games, with 32 wins more likely than 44. Unfortunately, I do not think that 2016-17 will be a good time to be a Knicks’ fan.

  49. The key is Melo and KP starting off the season strong. We are always in a damn hole. If we come out firing on all cylinders it could be good. Key injuries are of course a big X factor

  50. I agree with the .500 portion….the 2 team thing not so much

    Might they win 42 or more games? Absolutely.

    Is that an indisputable fact? erm…

  51. 100 x 100 = 10000 btw
    Tonight is the best night of the season because we are going to remain undefeated until about 9:45. It’s all downhill from there.

  52. we’re probably going to be around .500… i think more like 40 wins… obviously how many minutes noah plays and how much porzingis improves are the biggest unknowns… but everyone else is mainly a known quantity at this point… it’s going to take everything to break right to get to 45 wins…

  53. 45 win season…god, i feel so depressed sometimes reading the posts here – too much pragmatic realism…

    yeah 45 wins – it could happen – it’s not altogether an impossibility…i’m gonna try to stay in fantasy land and imagine a successful, competent basketball season for one of my favorite teams…

    the knicks owe me man…21 years of faithful following – i don’t feel like 45 wins is asking/expecting too much…

    make it happen horny – make it so…

  54. No, it’s set too high. Not a sure thing like 2014-15, which is frustrating, because I have the liquidity and easy access to Vegas, now.

    For the board? Absolutely. 35-37 wins seems the most likely outcome, with 41-43 in the cards if Porzingis makes the leap. If Noah stays healthy and Rose gets hurt, this is a low-seed playoff team. If Rose stays healthy (>65 games) and Noah gets hurt (<25 games), this is a mid-lottery team.

  55. So what’s your number, Jowles? Gotta have it down so you can lord it over everyone for the next 5 years…

    The funny thing about this board is that the difference between optimists and pessimists among the rational (e.g. excluding reub) is about 6 wins. Almost everyone is around 40, plus or minus a few.

  56. Actually, I see a few others in the reub camp. er, jkhar, rican around 46/50 – and Theo and Jowles on the other side, 34 and 36. That’s a bigger spread.

  57. the knicks owe me man…21 years of faithful following – i don’t feel like 45 wins is asking/expecting too much…

    Pfff 21 years. You got plenty more sufferin’ you can handle son. Trust me. :-)

  58. How about an over/under for Derrick Rose’s TS%, say .500? Career is .519, last year .479.

    I’ll take the over, but by a hair.

  59. So what’s your number, Jowles? Gotta have it down so you can lord it over everyone for the next 5 years

    I’d say 37 wins.

    The funny thing about this board is that the difference between optimists and pessimists among the rational (e.g. excluding reub) is about 6 wins. Almost everyone is around 40, plus or minus a few.

    Lots of veterans on this roster. Injury and Porzingis are the wildcards. If there are no catastrophic injuries to the top 6, this team is easy to predict. If Rose or Noah go down, there’s a lot of room to move, up and down respectively.

  60. I’ll say 38 on the dot, so under. It’s just too much of a stretch for me to envision a scenario in which we’re much better than that. Those scenarios definitely exist, but I’m not buying that Rose will be much better than he’s been for the last 3500 minutes, that Melo will buck the general trend of 32 year olds declining, that Calderon and Galloway’s relatively steady play won’t be missed more than people think, etc.

    I am optimistic about a few things. I think Noah will be relatively healthy and productive. He played 2000+ minutes for three consecutive seasons before last, and his injury seemed like the kind of thing that the surgery should take care of without issue. I’ll enjoy watching him play, always have, though still think the contract was nonsensical.

    I’m all in on Porzingis. He should take a significant step.

    At least one of Baker, Hernangomez, and/or Kuzminskas seems likely to surprise some people.

    Ultimately we’re just not deep enough. I’d only be willing to bet on Noah, Melo, Porzingis, and I guess Lee league average or better players. Even with them there are plenty of questions, and everywhere else you really have to squint to see much worth getting excited about.

  61. If they’re going to be stuck in limbo, at least let me hope that it’s limbo where they actually make the playoffs, so I’m going to go with 42 wins.

  62. It’s so hard predicting b/c of Rose’s absence from preseason. That makes tonight’s game even more attractive. For the record, Jowles’ current range of 35-43 games is quite reasonable, even optimistic for him given the dire shit he was spouting when we traded for Rose. But really, we won’t know how good or bad this team is until at least after this game, and maybe not for a month.

  63. Right on, everybody! I needed to read some Knicks hatred to get me through the day and y’all didn’t disappoint.

  64. If they’re going to be stuck in limbo, at least let me hope that it’s limbo where they actually make the playoffs, so I’m going to go with 42 wins.

    Then again, is two games worth of playoff revenue for Dolan really better than a 1% or whatever chance at the lottery? Genuinely asking, don’t know the answer myself.

  65. Did I mention an EC Championship as well? Guys it’s time to think big because we have the horses for it.

  66. Then again, is two games worth of playoff revenue for Dolan really better than a 1% or whatever chance at the lottery? Genuinely asking, don’t know the answer myself.

    I think it probably is easier to sell mediocrity, honestly. So yes, the current plan might be better for Dolan’s bottom line. Then again, the team has more than doubled in value since Dolan bought the team, so I guess you could say everything he’s done the past sixteen years has been good for his bottom line, in a roundabout way. :)

  67. Oh yeah, I meant for fans like us. Which outcome is better; 42 wins and a first round sweep, or ~38 with a prayer at some lottery luck? I’m torn, but it’s hard for me to make a case for the former scenario being clearly better.

  68. Gun to my head I say 37 wins. But I want to be optimistic and hope to see the Knicks in a competitive playoff series come late April so I’ll be crossing my fingers for 45 wins.

  69. This team truly is tough to gauge. I am betting on a healthy, slightly more efficient Rose with a chip on his shoulder (Contract Year, very capable back-up to spell him so Hornacek may be able to get his minutes down to 28 per), and an even more motivated Noah with the best big he’s ever played next to. That said I’m looking at around 44 wins/6th seed with an absolute best scenario of 48 wins/4th seed. That is quite a jump from last season, but I think they can pull it off. The East is top heavy. I don’t see any reason why we can’t compete with the Wizards, Hornets, Magic, or Hawks. Detroit will start slow and Miami will take a step back without Bosh and Wade. Indy is a wild card. They can be as good as 3rd or as low as 6. I can’t help but wonder how their backcourt is gonna mesh. And, I truly don’t know how to bet Chicago. On paper, they look excellent. But can a Wade/Rondo backcourt work? Beyond Wade and Butler, they really have no offense in that starting 5. Gonna be a helluva season though

  70. I like to be optimist about the knicks, but I really didnt like bringing Noah and Rose. Specially about the Noah signing. I understand the upside of bringing Rose, as a 27 year old former MVP signed for only one year more; but I believe Noah is done.

    However, I said I like to be optimist, so I have to figure some way to believe in this team. So I will figure Hornacek will make the team play very well, and will involve lots of smallball with Melo at 4 and KP at 5; that Willy will provide meaningful minutes from the bench; that Kuzminskas will adapt nicely to the NBA; and that Rose will bring 52 %TS at a moderate usage.

    So I’ll say 43 wins and playoffs.

  71. I’m usually not one for discussion of “veteran leadership,” but since Porzingis was shafted by not being able to play next to Chandler, Noah is probably the next best thing. He’s still not worth $72M, but Porzingis will learn how to play center. Noah’s a high-character, high-IQ guy.

  72. Once again, I predict 40 wins +/- 10. So, yeah, I have to take the under at 40.

    I don’t generally like reality TV shows. But I would love to watch a show with Theo and reub sharing an apartment for a year, watching Knicks games together.

  73. If we can get meaningful minutes out of Billy and Plumlee..with KOQ swinging between the 4 and 5 (mostly 4 I hope), we will have less to worry about with Noah’s durability. I think that can happen because it feels like Hornacek will use his bigs as mainly defenders and screen setters/high post passers on offense. Luckily KOQ, Noah, and Billy can all pass from that spot. I do wonder if he’ll switch more with Noah in the game and how much he will utilize Billy in the low post given his deft touch there.

  74. With 37, 38 and 40 taken I will put my nickel down on 39. I think 38.5 would be the perfect line on this team. At 40.5 I at least feel like the under is the slightly better bet.

    As always, here’s to my prediction being wrong on the upside….

  75. Oh yeah, I meant for fans like us. Which outcome is better; 42 wins and a first round sweep, or ~38 with a prayer at some lottery luck? I’m torn, but it’s hard for me to make a case for the former scenario being clearly better.

    Oh, gotcha. Huh…at that point, I still go for the playoffs. Playoff basketball is still very special, even if you’re going to be taken out in the first round. The difference between the #14 pick (and a teensy chance at a top three pick) and the #16 pick isn’t a huge deal. Once they decided to go with mediocrity, I think the hope should be that they are good enough to make the playoffs. If they’re going to go this ill-advised route, I want to at least see some playoff basketball, consarnit!

  76. Bill Bradley on MSNBC just now. He thinks Knicks will make the playoffs. Also says they have some good young players and cited Hernangomez.

  77. I’ll go on record with the over and 45 wins.

    Interested in what people think about some over unders: my predictions in parentheses

    Derrick Rose – TS 52 (over)
    Derrick Rose -65 games played (over)

    Courtney Lee – 3P% 38 (over)

    Melo- 3P% 37 (over)
    Melo – 23 PPG (under)

    KP- 16 PPG (over)
    KP – 8 RPG (under)

    Noah – 70 games played (under)

  78. best case scenarios include us making playoffs and nabbing cp3 in FA next year… which is a pipe dream but something to hope for….

    a lotto pick in this next draft is also not bad although it’d be better if we went all the way and nabbed a top 5 pick… i don’t really trust us with a pick in the teens…

  79. Under, 37 wins. Marginally worse than the Pacers/Hawks/Magic/Wizards. But like others have said, the variability is huge here and I could see us being marginally better than the aforementioned teams which would probably look like 43 wins (4 extra wins versus them and a couple from Gizzlies/Kings/Pelicans) and an eight or seven seed. So many questions though makes it hard to pick the upside. So excited for the games to finally start!

    Also, our schedule starts out pretty tough. If we start the season 4-6 or better we’re gonna have a good year. I would not be surprised to see us start 2-8 but I wouldn’t be disappointed either.

  80. 538 has Bulls at 45 wins and the Knicks at 35. I don’t think that takes into account our coaching change though.

  81. Jowles, you know it’s legal to bet offshore, correct? If you have a bitcoin there aren’t any special withdrawal charges in the U.S. for most sites.

    Knicks 48-54 wins, 3rd-5th seed, ECF.

  82. Watching Cleveland suck on Lebron’s nuts after everything the said after he left for Miami is funny.

  83. I have a bad feeling Melo takes a shit ton of shots tonight in an attempt to show Lebron up.

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