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53 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2025.05.18)”
If you’re looking for something to fill the time with some good Knicks content between now and Wednesday, I highly recommend the Game Theory Podcast ep that Vecenie and company did late Friday night after the game ended, particularly the last section where they start considering the Knicks-Pacers matchup. Some really good breakdowns of each team’s respective strengths and weaknesses, and how they might come into play against this opponent. They wondered, for instance, if Hart and Mitch chasing after offensive boards like usual would make it easier for the Pacers to get out on the break whenever we don’t get the rebound, and how/if Thibs might adjust to that.
Carlisle is historically the more flexible coach, and I suspect he’ll be better at adjusting to what happens in this series than Thibs will. But what Thibs did against Boston was shocking, in a good way. Maybe he, like his players, knows this is perhaps his best shot at a ring(*), and he’s ready to do whatever it takes — including compromising on some of his basic principles when it’s obviously the wrong strategy in a given series.
Can someone say more about this? I’ve seen lot of comments here on Thibs re: the Boston series but would love some specifics on how ppl believe he coached differently.
It was a good podcast, Alan, and it reinforced the impression I had that this is a really tough, balanced series. That said, I think one important change that will favor the Knicks, compared to the first two rounds, is that the Pacers do not have the kind of long defenders that will bother Brunson, and in fact will suffer with size when matching some of their wings against the Knicks. They also have Hali as a weak link defensively, which makes it harder to play their center on Hart (because then where do you hide Hali). I hope Bridges is sharp this series, because he will have his opportunities.
The switching was the main thing, DS. Thibs has traditionally believed in protecting the rim at the expense of almost everything else on defense, and has overwhelmingly deployed a drop coverage where his center hangs back near the rim as the last line of defense. And it got us absolutely murdered against the elite teams like the Celtics this year, in part because playing drop brings out all of the worst aspects of KAT as a defender, in part because teams like the Celtics have offenses specifically designed to exploit drop defenses. With this series, Thibs switched to primarily switching on everything. And while KAT isn’t a great switch defender, he’s also not a disaster at it like he can be in drop, while Brunson’s sheer strength allowed him to be at least competent when switched onto much taller players like Brown or Tatum.
From the eye test, it feels like our transition defense hasn’t been great this year, but I have no ideas if the numbers bear this out. The Pacers love to freaking run down the court, even off of made baskets, so how Thibs handles that will be huge.
Marechal, I was at Game 5 of last year’s Pacers series, and Indiana had nobody who could stop Brunson. They tried one defender after another on him, and he got whatever he wanted. Other than MJ in a Knicks-Bulls game I attended in the early 90s, it was the most dominant offensive performance I’ve ever seen in person at the Garden.
Now, this year’s Indy squad is better than last year’s, and maybe Nembhard or Nesmith have improved enough on defense to at least bother Brunson. But that feels like an obvious advantage for us.
Mikal is going to be a huge swing factor. We had nobody like him to check Hali last time. Deuce was just too small. OG had too many other responsibilities to deal with him full-time. This is the kind of player we brought Mikal in here to defend. If he makes Hali’s life difficult, then I very much like our chances.
Thank you Alan! That makes it clearer. Hence, KAT and Mitch being in more places on the floor and guarding a more diverse set of opponents than usual… the Knicks are not a high-ranked rebounding team but the Pacers don’t have a single player who averages even 7 RPG. I wonder how that will play out. I’ll def. give the Game Theory podcast a listen.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6353679/2025/05/18/2025-nba-offseason-spending-lakers-warriors-celtics-money/
Danny Leroux on each team’s spending power this summer: “The Knicks are over the tax and about $10 million short of the second apron, which is potentially enough to either use the taxpayer MLE or retain Precious Achiuwa, but not both. It does not make sense to push over the second apron in 2025-26 because most of their paths to spending additional salary would hard cap them at either the first or second apron, and pushing back the clock another year makes sense with Mikal Bridges’ potential raise coming in 2026.”
Can we split the MLE among multiple players? If not, we should be able to sign a good 8th or 9th man who’s either another big wing or a true power forward. Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes, it feels like the course this summer is to run it back, but make the bench better.
kat and hali kinda rhyme. both guys had some pretty defense-centric draft comps but turned out to be surprising liabilities on that end and offensive juggernauts. both guys also dramatically fail the eye test to casuals like date night owen. even the smart dork vibes overlap a bit, tho hali is more annoying.
The one adjustment I can’t see Thibs making is expanding his rotation to counter Indiana’s strategy of wearing teams down. We’re likely to still play 7 men and play our starters the whole 3Q.
But I’m increasingly convinced that there is no way in hell we are losing to the Pacers in back-to-back seasons.
So how do we solve for X if you think we’re going to win and think we’re likely to play into Carlisle’s hands?
I think the answer is in last year’s series. Remember we were a miraculous Nembhart bobbled 3P bailout shot away from going up 3-0, effectively ending the series.
Therein lies the key: Carlisle’s strategy depends on the series being long. Thibs’ strategy focuses on maximizing our chances in the current game.
If we’re trading wins over the first four games, advantage Indiana. But the way the Knicks win this series is by winning it early, coming off four full days of rest. Defend the home court in MSG again, but this time successfully go for the jugular in game 3. Take the obligatory L in game 4, and close them out at MSG for the gentleman’s sweep.
Knicks in 5.
Just a casual eye-test thing, but I thought Hali was a bit better defensively vs. CLE than I remembered him from last year, using his length and anticipation to get into passing lanes, get some weak-side deflections and block (9 blocks in 10 playoff games), etc. But their speed scrambles the game so much it’s hard to get a read on how he would fare in more of a half-court game where he is targeted.
Myles Turner is an elite shot-blocker but not the most physical of bigs. He’s not the kind of player that you want OG or Hart to challenge, but KAT should be able to abuse him, especially if he hits the offensive glass.
Nembhard is a weird player. Seems to have that Derrick White clutch gene, and like White, is bigger than he looks (listed at 6’5″). He continues to shoot poorly during the regular season (.291 from 3 this year, never above .357 in any of his 3 years), yet can’t seem to miss in the playoffs (50% so far, 48% last year).
In fact, the Pacers are shooting the lights out from 3 overall thus far in the playoffs. Nesmith is at 48%, Turner is at 45%, Siakam at 44%, and hitting over 40% as a team on .403 3PAr. Hali’s % is lower but we all know how he can get hot situationally and make backbreaking shots in crunch time.
To me, the key is limiting their transition baskets and having them play the vast majority of their possessions against a set defense. Obviously KAT should play up at the level of screens, but Hali is such a great passer, whoever the roller is (as well as cutters off the ball) really has to be accounted for. That’s the main difference between their offense and the Celts, they pass much better and while they hit 3’s, they don’t depend on them as much.
So Joker and Murray will have to play even more out of their minds than usual to have a shot this afternoon.
BTW, I have zero interest in putting the cart before the horse. I have no idea if we will win this series, so I’m not predicting anything regarding the Finals. Just want to be clear on that before I ask this:
Has there ever been a challenge (i.e. veteran-for-veteran, not veteran-for-prospects or veteran-for-picks) trade in a major sport where the teams that made the trade went head to head in that sport’s championship round that year? And one where the two players were at least at the level that KAT and Julius were at the time of that trade? I’m just curious how rare a theoretical Knicks/Wolves Finals would be. And it’s a slow day.
Yes, agreed. And contrary to the Celtics, who can be baited into bad shots relatively easily, the Pacers will run actions until they get what they want, so it requires the defense to be tight for the entire possession. It puts a lot of stress on them.
This is what makes me hopeful. Almost all the Pacers got hot at the right time. At least some of them will revert back to the mean, especially if we defend like in game 6.
And our guys actually have room to improve their shooting… especially against a laissez faire Pacer D.
Re: their fast break, we are also a bit of a wrecking crew when we get steals and turn them into transition buckets, so hopefully that will even out.
I hate that effing team though and can’t wait for some revenge.
i was worried we’d get a game 7 og situation with gordon where he started but was moving like he bonked on mile 22, but i guess he’s not going to go. that was painful to watch, but missing gordon is even worse for them than it was for us.
nembhard has that confident vibe that belies his age and pedigree. almost like nyk stage derek harper level.
Pacers are playing great and they’re sneakily contending without “yelling”.
Otoh if you were asking me Who you’d like in the ECF between Bos, Cle and Ind the answer would be definitely Indiana.
It’s Not Going to be Easy but Let’s Not kidding ourselves…
They’re*Manna From Heaven Opponent* for ECF
Today is a great day to be a Knicks fan.
Our team gets to rest until Wednesday.
Knicks have home court advantage over the Pacers, thanks to some wins in the last week of the regular season, when some people were advocating dumping games to avoid a first round matchup against Detroit.
We get to watch a Game 7, with scouting in mind.
In response to a question upthread asking for specific things Thibs changed between Game 5 & Game 6, someone pointed out yesterday that the Knicks attacked Luke Kornet by putting him into the Pick & Roll, do that he could not sit in the paint and block shots as a help defender. The Knicks often ran two off-ball screens to get Kornet matched on the guy who would set the ball screen for Brunson/Deuce.
We know them Better than Well and We’re lately looking Much Better than Last Year.
If We can’t find the ways to beat the Pacers then we better start playing golf instead!
“…the Pacers will run actions until they get what they want…”
All those cliches like head on a swivel, defensive footwork, hedge and recover, comunication, etc. are key when playing a team like the Pacers. Slow the pace down and make them take contested shots and limit rebounds on defense, make them take the ball out of the basket on offense and hustle back.
One thing that will kill us is if we attack the rim but whoever is doing it (Brunson, KAT, OG, Hart) falls out of bounds and trails the play. The Pacers seem to be particularly deadly when they have a man advantage in transition, even after made baskets. We also need to keep tabs on guys like Obi and Mathurin who like to get easy transition buckets off of leak-outs.
The Celts do enough of that stuff to have helped prepare us for that type of offense, but Indiana is truly elite in the transition game.
Maybe my thinking is too simplistic, but I think the Knicks will handle Indiana handily.
The Pacers line-up is essentially the same as last year. The Knick’s line-up is minus I Hart and DDV, but plus KAT, Mitch, Bridges, OG for 5.25 games and Josh Hart minus an abdominal injury.
I rest my case.
knicks in six with indiana winning games 1 and 4 and us closing out on their home floor seems somehow inevtable
I was pretty impressed by the Pacers and expected the Cavs upset but then i watched the Knicks vs Bos….
Beating These Celtics puts an asterisk deep in doubters ass imo
After a full season of watching KAT, I have come to the conclusion that KAT’s ceiling is reaching 75% of his ceiling. He tries hard. He has astounding offensive skills. He has defensive liabilities. For most of the season, I was hoping that he could capture all of the offense and do some useful things on defense, without doing the dumb things (like taking stupid fouls).
I now realize that it is not realistic to hope for KAT to reach all of his ceiling for a complete series. He is inconsistent. Game 1 against Detroit and Game 6 against Boston were KAT at his ceiling. It is not likely to see him do that for a complete series. If KAT were able to consistently be the player he was in those two games, he would not have been available for Julius Randle, DDV and a lottery-protected Detroit first round pick.
Against the Pacers, the Knicks will really need KAT’s offense. To get his offense, we need him to play passable defense, without picking up dumb fouls. His biggest defensive contribution would be to grab 10+ defensive rebounds, so that missed shots become “stops”.
On that note, KAT was very fundamentally sound in his defensive rebounding against Boston. He caught the ball with two hands above his head and was very crisp in his outlet passes. He eliminated most of the lazy rebounds and dumb turnovers on outlet passes.
KAT is an A- or B+ student, for a very specific reason. He has the ability to be an A+ on offense. He has the ability to be a B on defense. But his work almost always includes spelling mistakes and questions that are just skipped. That is part of the mix.
With all of that, I am happy to have KAT on the squad. He cares. He is dedicated to the team concept. He is genuinely happy in wins, even when he does not get great individual stats.
Game 1 is critical. Knicks have to win Game 1. Pacers are a real threat. The one game we lost Brunson had 33, Towns had 30, OG had 25 all on efficient shooting. Mathurin had 38 and couldn’t miss – went 7 for 9 from three, and Hali had 35. Mathurin was injured last year, and is healthy now, another strong wing they can throw at us. This is going to be a tough series.
I think we will win game 1, it’s really game 2 that I am more worried about. IND might be too rested, and the Knicks have last year’s bitter loss to fire them up.
And the home crowd should be an enormous factor, being that there won’t be many Pacers fans there compare to the Celtics fans last series. We won all 3 home games last year before being decimated by injuries.
hope yer right
This series should be tailor-made for KAT to have a huge positive impact.
The Pacers are smallish. Turner is kind of big, but can be pushed around and doesn’t rebound very well, he’s at his best when coming from the weak side. The only defensive wing they can put on KAT is 6’5″ Nesmith, and he might have his hands full with Brunson. They aren’t like the Pistons, who could throw Tobias Harris at him and beat him up with Duren and Reed, or Boston, who could guard KAT with any of their non-C’s in the starting lineup.
On defense, KAT might struggle keeping up with the complex actions the Pacers run, but he also might be a presence in the paint and as ephus pointed out, should dominate the defensive boards.
I also agree with ephus that keeping out of foul trouble is paramount for KAT. I worry about him picking up unnecessary fouls on his own post-ups and drives by pushing off or locking up arms, and he also commits fouls on rebounds.
In fact, foul trouble is a concern across our lineup. We don’t go very deep, and the Pacers are good at getting defenders off kilter. McConnell can also drive opponents nuts and draw them into frustration fouls on both ends.
But I also think that the danger of having to go deeper into our bench to guys like Payne, Shamet, and Precious is less than it was against the Celtics.
When I look at TJ McConnell, I see a slightly-better Ramon Sessions. Both have incredible handle, so that they can create space, get to their spots and make the defender look foolish. Neither was a great three point shooter, but McConnell is better than Sessions was.
Both are also small-framed, short PGs. With his effort plays, McConnell comes closer to being a neutral defender, but both are weak links once a team gets into rotation. If McConnell is switched onto KAT or OG, they should be able to dunk him through the basket.
If ever a coach was prepared to exploit a player, I have to think that Thibs knows how to make the Pacers pay when they put Obi Toppin on the floor. There was a reason that Thibs would not play Obi more than about 15 mpg. He could see all of the ways that an opponent could exploit Obi on defense.
In addition to the 1/5 PnR, I would love to see the Knicks find ways to get Obi involved in PnR defense.
now it conveniently comes out that jylen brown was playing on a partically torn menisus or some such boo hoo he looked like his regular self to me out there on the floor
I think of Ramon as more smooth, and less physical, never thought of him as a “pest” kind of player. He’s actually pretty unique, kind of like JJ Barea on O and Avery Baadley on D but not quite as good in each category as those guys.
I like the JJ Barea comp for both Sessions and McConnell. The handle is so good that you feel like he is torching your team, even when his wide-open looks lead to missed jumpers.
The Pacers can erase big leads and build big leads in seconds. That’s the main thing that “scares” me about this matchup. This team does have its moments of the Yips and that could be big.
My two main things I’m watching for is:
1- Bridges v Hali- if Bridges can stay up on Hali and trap him at the top and force his patented crazy cross court passes, you’re looking at easy steals and turnovers. Individual defense aside, the team D and closing out on shooters is gonna be the series IMO.
2- Exploiting their insanely awful Defense. Brunson cooked them without any help last year and there’s no reason why this can’t happen with the boys this year.
I can easily see us doing the 4-1 as much as I can see a 7 game series.
Okay guys. I know you wanna win this, but make sure you don’t win too many games early. We need to get this to game seven.
Remember last year when Carlisle said “even dating a pretty girl gets boring if she can’t guard anyone”? Well, the pretty girl isn’t that boring anymore. She went from 24th to 13th in D-rating, all from internal improvement. This isn’t your grandfather’s Hali-Era Pacers, Bob.
Donnie the Knicks (5th in ortg, 13th in drtg) just wiped out the Celtics (2nd, 4th) and the Pistons (14th, 10th).
I appreciate that they’ve improved defensively but they backslid from the #2 offense. And there’s no reason to fear the Pacers for their rankings (9th, 14th)
Their defense is a lot like ours, statistically, it makes sense they have essentially the same drtg
We have mitch now though which should help some
Indy is the same team but plays much better than last year; they have been together for a long time, they have developed and matured both individually and as a team, and, most importantly, they started playing defense. Carlisle was saying repeatedly in previous years that his players could be very good if they learned to play defense, and so they did.
At the same time, just like us, Indiana can be very inconsistent both offensively as well as defensively. Unlike us though, they have no superstar. We don’t know what metal they are made of. They don’t seem to embrace adversity as well as we do! They can go ten deep, but I will take our first seven over theirs. And yes, Rick Carlisle is a very good coach, but so is Tom Thibodeau!
Indiana is a very good team, but I think the series depends on us more than them. We all know what we need to do. Control the pace and don’t try to outrun them. Minimize turnovers and transition baskets. Make them play against set defense. Live with Siakam’s iso’s rather than allowing them to get hot from distance.
The Knicks will be perfectly prepared – we all know that. This is Thib’s special. The plan will be there and it’s up to the players to execute. I am optimistic because of the lessons this roster has learned from the Detroit and Boston series.
Knock on wood, we are healthy this time. Let’s be optimistic: get the first two, split in Indiana, and come back home to finish them off! Yeah!!!!
Hali is a good off-ball defender due to his length and smarts, at least from my understanding. He struggles on-ball.
Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam, and Turner should all be plus defenders. Siakam has had a full year to fit into the system defensively. Nesmith and Nembhard should both still be improving. In theory, Mathurin could be less garbage on defense. They have the personnel to play defense so long as they aren’t grouping Hali/Mathurin/Obi together for too many minutes.
Still, I’m not sure who stops Brunson if he reaches the levels we’ve seen.
As for KAT, I think they put Siakam on him with help from Turner playing off Hart but wouldn’t surprise me if they want to see how Turner can handle him straight up at first.
Mikal & OG should have a much easier time exploiting Hali than whoever you think the 5th best Celtic defender is. Much, much easier.
I understand he’s a Celtic, but stop it.
He clearly was injured. The didn’t dress him 8 of the last 15 regular season games including the last three consecutive. No one wants to send a player into a playoff game not having played 12 consecutive days… that is, of course, unless if he just took a cortisone, hyaluronic acid or stem cell injection……
I think the Pacers may need to adjust more to what Mitch is doing and slow down their fastbreak offense. They were 19th in dreb% and they’ll need multiple guys to keep Mitch away from the ball.
Anyone selling 100s level game 7 tix (4 or 2 tix). Not behind basket
Alan, I think the answer to your question is never, mostly due to the first part—rarity of having 2 very good teams trading their stars for each other. In the NBA, the closest I can come—and it’s not that close—is the Warriors and Bulls flipping their starting centers in 1974 (neither were star level but back then centers were more important) and they met in the WCF, not a championship round but the latest round they could meet in.
Pelton: “Because the East semifinals upsets happened simultaneously, I don’t think people have quite processed how shocking they were. Via SportsOddsHistory.com, they were two of the nine biggest playoff upsets in the 2000s by pre-series odds.”
The chart: https://bsky.app/profile/kpelton.bsky.social/post/3lphk5yuy772s
Thanks, Bernie.
Point was, they have the same lineup as last year, but it is better. (Also, they are, you know, healthy. Something that the Celtics and Pistons were not.)
I thought the Cavs team was fool’s gold the entire season, I just never believed their shooting was going to be sustainable through the playoffs, and then they got injured, so the Indiana series win over them wasn’t particularly impressive to me. They’re also a very soft team that has never been able to work when under adversity and they just folded.
I also firmly believe we win that series last year without the injuries, and we are better and healthier this season.
All of that said, it’s going to be tough and heated like all series against a hate rival are, but I’m confident. The Pacers were dancing and flying around against a broken Cavs team like they did against us last season because they love doing that while they’re frontrunners, but they’re very liable to struggle if they get punched in the mouth right away, so I think winning both games at MSG is extremely important.
Leon Rose did a great job of building the roster for this coach. He knew that Thibs likes to shorten his rotation to 7 players in the playoffs, so he consolidated two very good players and a draft pick (Randle, DDV & Pistons lottery-protected 2025 first round pick) into KAT. Now, virtually all of the player value is in the first seven roster spots, so Thibs unwillingness to go deeper does not waste value.
The dangers are foul trouble and/or injuries.
OG in game 7 flashbacks…
It is a no choice deal. If he can give them X quality minutes, wonderful. If injures it worse… he has six months to heal.
I am not sure how I feel about the idea that Indy will wear the Knicks down. They obviously play fast, but slower than last year (7th in pace this year, 2nd last year). The difference between the two teams is 3 possessions/48 in pace this year, it was 6 last year.
Is the fact that their rotation includes more players than the Knicks actually an advantage in the playoffs? I think the conventional wisdom is that deeper teams perform better in the regular season, but shallower and more talented teams perform better in the playoffs. If you go through BPM, their 8th, 9th, and 10th guys are not good.
lol. I’ll rephrase: it usually takes 3-4 games for Carlisle’s strategy to begin to pay off. Last year, for instance, game 4 was when we saw the Knicks’ legs begin to give way, and it was pretty dramatic.
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