Knicks Morning News (2024.12.18)

66 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.12.18)”

I get that one might be skeptical of having Jimmy Butler on the roster two years from now might be a huge black hole, but saying he is “washed” is complete nonsense.

By any reasonable metric he’s in the midst of a 2nd/3rd team all NBA season. By comparison, he stacks up better than out deity on the “advanced” end… https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=brunsja01&year_min=2025&player_id1=butleji01&seasons_type=forall&request=1&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_source=bbr&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_id=butleji01

“He (Butler) plays a lot of minutes every game he plays in.”

Hmmmmmmm……. Already this season, he’s only played 25:49 against Orlando, 25:01 against Charlotte, 29:21 against the Lakers, and 29:26 against Toronto. That’s not counting the game in which he played 6:44 against Denver prior to missing the subsequent four games. He also missed one game against the Celtics for “rest.”

So in those four games (not counting the one where he got hurt), he averaged 27:24, including two games in which he averaged 25:25. Did he really “play a lot of minutes every game he plays in”?

Jimmy Butler is still a stud. He would immediately be the best 2-way player on our team. I think it’s legitimate to debate whether his or OG’s contract will age better, it’s not like OG is some kind of iron man. Put differently, if we could have traded RJ, IQ, and a second for Jimmy Butler and the equivalent of precious. I would have been thrilled.

I love I-Hart, but for all the talk about his offensive skillset, I’m pretty sure the Knicks’ improvement on offense is as attributable to his departure as their fall on defense.

“Jimmy Butler is still a stud. He would immediately be the best 2-way player on our team.”

I think that a lot of people here would take no issue with that statment (although some of course would). My feeling is that the ensuing question would be something akin to “yes, but for how long?”

Doogie, but isn’t that true for OG as well?

Doogie, but isn’t that true for OG as well?

Seriously? OG is like 8 years younger than Butler. Yes, he’s had his injuries but he hasn’t had any serious knee or ankle issues. One of his big chunks of games missed in his career was because of an apendicitus.

Statistically, it is irrefutable that the odds OG plays at his same level or even slightly better over the next few years are much higher than Butler maintaining his current level of play. That is an irrefutable fact. That doesn’t even get into the KAT/Butler dynamic, which is not a risk worth taking at all.

I think that a lot of people here would take no issue with that statment (although some of course would). My feeling is that the ensuing question would be something akin to “yes, but for how long?”

Stipulated…

However, some here said “Jimmy Butler is washed” which I believe is patently, clearly demonstrably false.

“Jimmy Butler might be/probably will be washed in 18 months” is an entirely different argument and open to conjecture as is “Jimmy Butler on a 5 year big contract is foolish.”

All having nothing to do with “Jimmy Butler is washed.”

I love I-Hart, but for all the talk about his offensive skillset, I’m pretty sure the Knicks’ improvement on offense is as attributable to his departure as their fall on defense.

pretty hard to say our improvement is attributable to his departure when we had a 122.8 offensive rating with ihart on the court last season. obviously kat is a better offensive player than ihart.

Sorry swift, Butler is orders of magnitude better than OG right now and probably will be for the next 2-3 seasons after this. And that’s as far as you need to go to justify a comparison because that’s the prime of our championship window. Then you can move on to new players when you have more firsts to trade plus cap flexibility. It won’t happen, but if it did, my concerns would be more about fit and roster flexibility than value. He doesn’t put us over the top.

I am not a personal fan of Butler and I specially wouldn’t want him to bring all his fake bravado to another team with KAT on it after all that happened in Minnesota, also because it would be costly enough to the point where i don’t think he moves us past Boston or the other contenders.

He’s a pretty damn good player, but I’d rather not deal with all this stuff.

I’m with you, Bruno. But one doesn’t need to distort Butler’s value/impact in a vacuum to feel that way.

pretty hard to say our improvement is attributable to his departure when we had a 122.8 offensive rating with ihart on the court last season. obviously kat is a better offensive player than ihart.

I should have been more clear: his departure and the space it created has improved their shooting efficiency (I believe a big part of that ORtg with I-Hart was based on offensive rebounding, but I don’t have time to check right now).

Player A: Left handed utility player

Player B: Left handed utility player

Player A, 2024: 1.9 fWAR in 129 games

Player B, 2024: 2.2 fWAR in 130 games

Player A, 2021-24 aggregate: 10.4 fWAR, 109 wRC+

Player B, 2021-24 aggregate: 7.1 fWAR, 99 wRC+

Player A remaining contract: 2/$33.5 million, club option after 2026 would increase the deal to 3/$45.25 million if exercised

Player B remaining contract: 2/$52.5 million, player option after 2025 would adjust deal to 1/$32.5 million

Player A identity: Jeff McNeil

Player B identity: Cody Bellinger

Ras, if you’re no longer interested in basketball, no problem, but go find a baseball blog for that stuff. No one cares.

Did he really “play a lot of minutes every game he plays in”?

Obviously, there are games when a player plays less minutes than his season average. These games are, typically, called “blowouts”. Sometimes they are referred to as “being in foul trouble”. These games indicate very little about the health and durability of a player, which is the context of this discussion. It almost seems as if you think Thibs shouldn’t play his players heavy minutes for no reason, but Spoelstra should, just to prove that Jimmy Butler isn’t “washed”.

I get that you have a few identified posters that you target to annoy the shit out of. Unfortunately I am one of them, and I should know better than to try to engage you in any reasonable discussion. I will try to he better in the future.

If Paul George got a max contract and is less available than Jimmy (and probably not as good), then it’s reasonable to assume Jimmy would be seen as deserving at least a similar contract. He’s a max player.

That said, still don’t want him, bad idea, doesn’t address our needs. Move on.

rama, just wondering why you said that to ras when several posters bring up baseball stuff all the time, including yesterday re: Bellinger…

I was listening to some random internet dudes talking about KAT and how he could legitimately be in the MVP conversation the way he’s playing now.

So we’ve got one dude who’s playing at an MVP level this season and another who finished 4th in last season’s MVP voting

I mean, things could be worse right?

As I said yesterday, a big part of what makes Butler better than OG is that he’s a more skilled scorer and playmaker. However, OG is better at shooting 3s and providing space (if he stays within his circle of competence). Also, if Butler was in NY he’d be 3rd option and not 1st or even 2nd option. He’d also handle the ball less often with a PG like Brunson in NY vs Miami. So it’s very likely he’d score less, get fewer assists and provide less space in NY than he does in Miami.

Is the better player?

Absolutely.

But I think figuring out whether a player’s skillset matches what you need and optimizes those skills should be part of the analysis. He’s
the Same player in NY or Miami, but his value may be a +4 or +5 BPM in Miami and a +1 or +2 in NY.

When you think about it like that, the age difference become more important because the gap in value to NY may be less than a stat like BPM suggests.

An iHart screen for Brunson yielded the third highest PPP among all plays in the NBA (trailing only Murray-Jokic and Lillard-Giannis) last year. That dude created space, he just did it with his floater and his passing.

Losing Randle has probably been a bigger boon to the offense that losing Hartenstein.

““play a lot of minutes every game he plays in””

Wasn’t targeting you, and literally have nothing against you. There is only one poster on here that I really don’t like (he almost never posted anything having to do with sports of any kind), and he hasn’t been posting anyway, so I’m good.

What I *was* targeting was the word “every.” Butler does *not* play a lot of minutes in every game in which he appears. If you had initially included what you just said about blowouts, that would have changed the assertion by a lot. (And by the way, in that game against Charlotte, Miami only ended up winning by 4 points…….so it didn’t end up being a blowout. And Jimmy only played 25 minutes and had 6 points. Herro [38 minutes], Bam [36 minutes], Duncan Robinson, and Highsmith all played more minutes than he did.)

Yeah to be clear my three reasons for opposing a trade that could never happen in real life for Butler is because of A) his age (and likely decline at any moment) B) he doesn’t address our real needs and C) his likely antagonistic relationship with KAT, who we just got and who is kicking ass for us.

Also, it would never happen and is pointless to discuss.

“rama, just wondering why you said that to ras when several posters bring up baseball stuff all the time, including yesterday re: Bellinger…”

I thought that what rama said to ras was a little bit out of place, too…….but I fully agree with the spirit of what he wrote. I don’t care about Bellinger as compared to McNeil in any way, shape, or form. (I’d rather talk about politics, and I say that as someone who does *not* generally want to talk about politics here, either.)

rama, just wondering why you said that to ras when several posters bring up baseball stuff all the time, including yesterday re: Bellinger…

Thank you, Z-Man.

I thought that what rama said to ras was a little bit out of place, too

It was very out of place.

don’t care about Bellinger as compared to McNeil in any way, shape, or form. (I’d rather talk about politics, and I say that as someone who does *not* generally want to talk about politics here, either.)

You can ignore my point if its not your cup of tea. Thankfully, we all have diverse interests and views so we can have multiple topics of conversation on a forum if we please.

Losing Randle has probably been a bigger boon to the offense that losing Hartenstein.

Even though they are all positionally different and do things in different ways:

Towns replaced Randle’s scoring. That was a huge upgrade in efficiency and spacing.

Towns replaced I-Hart’s rebounding & some of Randle’s rebounding.

J-Hart replaced Randle’s playmaking and some of his rebounding.

J-Hart replaced I-Hart’s lower usage scoring.

No one replaced I-Hart’s interior defense.

Don’t mind baseball posts in general on this site. But because we’ve got a good split of Yankees and Mets fans, ras ‘ posts being about one team being better than the other (which is somewhat unique here) is just provocative on a non basketball topic. So I do see a difference in posts about baseball that can be called out.

If Paul George got a max contract and is less available than Jimmy (and probably not as good), then it’s reasonable to assume Jimmy would be seen as deserving at least a similar contract. He’s a max player.

That would be true if Paul George deserved a max contract with his history of lack of availability. He has played 60 games once in his last 5 full seasons.

The Clips deemed that his 5 year body of work with them (3.7 BPM and 8700 minutes) wasn’t worthy of a Max contract… and they are completely correct.

I’m not basing my comps on poor decision-makng by Philly.

IMO, during the NBA season, posts about other sports should be a minimum. The off season we tend to have threads that cover many different topics and that is fine. And I understand when there is some huge sports news (or other news to be honest) that things will pop up from time to time. But, IMO, during the NBA season we should keep the non basketball posts to a bare minimum.

BE that’s reasonable, but this particular post seemed pretty tame. Comparing two good but inconsistent players value-wise based on recent performance shouldn’t be all that triggering. It’s not like the Yanks traded the farm for Bellinger, and he could wind up being awesome.

Swift, timing is important but when there’s one game in 7 days, things get repetitive. And when folks start being annoyed at even the Jimmy talk, starts to sound like overkill.

Just scroll past posts on topics you don’t like. Easy peasy.

I like Ras’ baseball posts but in defense of Rama, Ras is only posting about baseball so I see his point.

Butler talk doesn’t annoy me as much as baseball talk, lol.

It really only annoys me because it’s E who made the initial suggestion and I’m preemptively annoyed by the suggestion because now I know he’ll continue to bring it up every time we lose a game like he did with Dejonte or CAm or RJ or whoever.

What I *was* targeting was the word “every.” Butler does *not* play a lot of minutes in every game in which he appears. If you had initially included what you just said about blowouts, that would have changed the assertion by a lot.

My posts aren’t meant to hold up under intense literal scrutiny, and neither are anybody else’s. If you understand the context, which I presume you do, then you don’t need to nitpick the syntax. Butler is averaging 32.5 minutes a game, a slight tick down from his recent all-star level averages, but still more than many of his younger, non-washed star player contemporaries (Mitchell, Wemby, Markkanen, Sengun, Suggs, Mobley, etc). If he plays 29 minutes vs 32 minutes on two occasions it really doesn’t mean anything at all in the context of the discussion. You understand that, yes?

“My posts aren’t meant to hold up under intense literal scrutiny, and neither are anybody else’s.”

As a former but not current Knicks fan, all your posts are under intense scrutiny…

Sure. Being supremely literal is what makes me so good at my job, but I understand completely that this forum is *not* my job. I admit that sometimes it is difficult sometimes to turn it off, especially since my literality is why I’m good at my job rather than my job being the reason for my literality. It’s pretty inherent in my nature.

Can someone actually point to the poster who said Jimmy Butler is washed before we have 20 more posts arguing that he isn’t?

I’m also not a fan of baseball posts. It’s ok when there’s super drama going on but getting into the nuances of player a player b is annoying.

Also annoying is that the site I used to watch replays on stopped working and now I have to consider other options. Any recommendations? I’m in Europe so I can only watch replays, not the games in real time.

As a former but not current Knicks fan, all your posts are under intense scrutiny…

followed by that drum beat, perfect timing, well delivered BE…

Also annoying is that the site I used to watch replays on stopped working and now I have to consider other options. Any recommendations? I’m in Europe so I can only watch replays, not the games in real time.

No idea, but if you Google NBA full replays there’s probably a reddit thread with some recommendations. It’s how I found streams when I was in Colorado.

Or there’s always league pass.

Yeah, but who’s better between RJ and Butler? 😉

followed by that drum beat, perfect timing, well delivered BE…

Thanks Geo, and looking at it now it may be clever but that was not what I was aiming at! Donnie as an ex fan but basketball aficionado is the closest thing we have to an objective take. All of us other posters are fans so an emotion has to seep in to our comments however objective we try to be. Another team’s fan posting—forget about it. And however cynical or unwarranted it is, the national writers must have a bias towards who gives them access.

The Butler vs. OG/Mikal convo is interesting. Almost no one says Butler is washed or not a top player now.

My 2c:
1) Butler’s a bad fit for us
2) His contract wouldn’t work, so it’s just a hypothetical
3) I value our 4-year window over a slightly better 2-year window (all else equal)

I don’t see a significant move involving our top 5 that makes sense right now. I’m team ride-or-die with what we’ve got. I also really like Duce and Payne—massive value over contract—so I don’t see a trade there either.

Mitch? I’d trade him, but we’d be selling low, and he might be the missing piece himself. Mitch for Kessler? Sure, but that’s not happening.

I’m also not a huge fan of baseball or political posts here, but this is wild:
[MLB Golden At-Bat rule](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/12/06/sport/mlb-golden-at-bat-explained-spt). I’d be open to eliminating extra innings for the first 177 games and replacing them with a golden run rule where the home team bats first in the 10th.

Can someone actually point to the poster who said Jimmy Butler is washed before we have 20 more posts arguing that he isn’t?

In reviewing the posts of the past 24 hours, it turns out I’m the only one who was said to be washed, not Jimmy. Apologies to the board!

I wonder what roster move the Knicks will make when Shamet is ready to join the team. Cut Ryan? What else can we do to add 1-2 players that can play from our bench. Maybe trade Sims to free up money to add a veteran minimum contract? Is that possible?

I wish we were a slightly deeper team. I worry if a few starters miss some games, which is highly possible, then we won’t be deep enough to compete that well.

Maybe we can add Warren and Shamet. Or Shamet and someone like a Marcus Morris? Not sure he is any good anymore, since he isn’t on a team. Or even Okeke from Westchester.

It is slightly discouraging seeing other teams use more bench players than us. Even teams who have injuries and are going deep into their bench.

It’s the in-season offseason.

Getting rid of RJ had to help the offense too last year.

I was surprised by how easily the Bucks handled OKC last night. I had the game off and on but the consistent theme seemed to be that Giannis might be back to being the second best player in the league.

“I’d be open to eliminating extra innings for the first 177 games and replacing them with a golden run rule where the home team bats first in the 10th.”

First 177 games? Huh? Aren’t there only 162 games in a season?

You are correct, sir. Meant 157.

I was surprised by how easily the Bucks handled OKC last night. I had the game off and on but the consistent theme seemed to be that Giannis might be back to being the second best player in the league.

I didn’t watch, but my takeaway from the box score is that both SGA & Jalen got shutdown by a team that’s supposed to be bad at defense.

I wonder what roster move the Knicks will make when Shamet is ready to join the team. Cut Ryan? What else can we do to add 1-2 players that can play from our bench. Maybe trade Sims to free up money to add a veteran minimum contract? Is that possible?

Ryan is non-guaranteed till Jan 1. I’d be surprised if he isn’t cut for Shamet.

We don’t have the money to sign anyone else till around game 60. We could get that down to around game 53 by taking the remaining 2 weeks below the 14 player minimum after we cut Ryan.

Donnie is not washed at all (not even close), but I do wish we had a team option on the last year of his deal 😉

No idea, but if you Google NBA full replays there’s probably a reddit thread with some recommendations. It’s how I found streams when I was in Colorado.

Or there’s always league pass.

Yep, 2nd link. Great, thanks EB.

Why on Earth would anyone want to watch that monstrosity of a game?

I was surprised by how easily the Bucks handled OKC last night.

So was I.

There were signs that the Bucks were turning it around and that Giannis was back in peak form, but I still like the team with Jrue Holiday better than with Lillard. Plus, Middleton is not anywhere near his peak (yet or ever) and Lopez is getting up there. But I’m not as big a fan of OKC as their SRS suggests. Their defense is elite, but I think their offense is more or less just top 10. I don’t think their offense has as many weapons as ours. I thought they’d win, but I thought it might be close. Sure didn’t expect a blowout. The Bucks are just rolling right now.

If I was wrong in my original assessment of the Bucks defense with Lillard instead of Holiday (looked like I was right last year) and they start playing top 10 defense, they are going to be a tough out with peak Giannis and Lillard on offense.

But because we’ve got a good split of Yankees and Mets fans, ras ‘ posts being about one team being better than the other (which is somewhat unique here) is just provocative on a non basketball topic

We literally talk about how team X–whether it is Boston, OKC, Cleveland, etc.–is better than the Knicks from a personnel standpoint every day. I mention the personnel ramifications of the Yankees missing out on Soto and overpaying for Bellinger and certain fans can’t handle it. Sounds like a double standard here.

Ryan is non-guaranteed till Jan 1.

I meant Jan 10.

In 19min for Westchester, Shamet put up 10/3/1 on 4-10 shooting, going 2-8 from 3.

“In 19min for Westchester, Shamet put up 10/3/1 on 4-10 shooting, going 2-8 from 3.”

I think at this point that this is much more of a “glad to see him back out on the court” thing than a “how were his stats?” thing.

Weird question, but does anyone have a lead on a GOAT-tier ptmilo Pynchonian comment, by some stroke of luck?

I described him as “possibly the funniest person I’ve encountered on the internet” to the Pynchon/DFW/Delillo-loving New Lady Jowles and I can’t seem to find any of his Pulitzer-worthy work in google search.

I was surprised by how easily the Bucks handled OKC last night.

Me, too. Without Chet the Thunder looked oddly ordinary, even though their statistics are anything but. If Jalen has a bad game they’re just SGA & iHart, which strangely was like watching last year’s Knicks with Randle & OG out.

rama, just wondering why you said that to ras when several posters bring up baseball stuff all the time, including yesterday re: Bellinger…

As Hubert implied, context is king. Soto getting the biggest contact in sports is a defensible reason for showing up out of the blue after years of silence to shit-post. Not enjoyable, but whatever. A long, random post about a player nobody cares about, though, without any other contributions about basketball, seemed totally worthy of a request not to engage in the same spamming he did the other day. A pre-emptive anti-baseball strike.

PT had a response to some comment that involved a discussion of how my wife operates me like a joystick that was really really funny recently. What isn’t gold though?

@SharmsCharania
BREAKING: The Denver Nuggets are reportedly trading Michael Porter Jr., and Zeke Nnaji to the Chicago Bulls for 2x All-Star Zach LaVine, sources tell ESPN.

I’m not sure how I feel about this one. I was never a Zach fan.

From the December 11th game thread, it’s a bit of a russian doll of inside jokes..

ME: If only one of you geniuses could build an AI Clyde to pair with Breen

PT – i just prompted claude to narrate a very personal broadcast to fit your particular circumstance in clyde’s distinctive style. we’re getting real close:

“Folks, we’re observing a fellow fan who’s wheeling and dealing, but needs spousal approval before Knicks viewing and kneeling. He’s dishing and swishing through matrimonial permissions, making domestic decisions before watching game transmissions. This cat’s bound and astound by household regulations, requiring marital validations for Madison Square Garden occasions!”

That’s a fake account, Strat. Note the spelling.

Weird question, but does anyone have a lead on a GOAT-tier ptmilo Pynchonian comment, by some stroke of luck?

In an ideal world, Milo himself directs you to his best post by means of another classic post

I’m guessing Zach goes to Orlando if he goes anywhere – he might actually be good there

Edit: or Cam Johnson, I guess

Butler is 35 and has been pretty injury plagued the last couple years. He might be an improvement over OG, Bridges, or Hart when he plays but he is 35 and has become much less durable than in his prime. Once aging players catch the injury bug it is often a sign of the end or the beginning of the end.

With Butler at his age if he gets hurt that might be it. Or it might be a downward spiral of less and less availability and consistency as he gets older. I also absolutely do not trust Thibs to not run him into the ground. within a month or two.

Trading for Butler is a huge gamble and would shorten our window and with his health and age there is a decent chance he might not even be healthy for our next couple playoff runs when we need him the most.

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