Knicks Morning News (2018.06.24)

Some guy named Len Robbins who’s got a lot of followers said in an article that Enes is expected to opt out. Does he have info that Enes is about to secure a contract something like 4 yr/40 to 45m? Mavs maybe?

I wonder if re-signing KOQ to something like 13m for 1 YEAR using his Bird rights might be the best strategy. Dolan doesn’t care about the money and it would give us a lot of flexibility. There are many factors which make flexibility important: whether KOQ sustains his high level of play, how Kornet and Mitch play, KP’s recovery and ability/willingness to play more minutes at the 5, Kyrie’s interest in NYK tied to ability to unload Courtney’s contract, Noah situation. Depending on how all of that plays out, next summer we could choose to: (1) not re-sign KOQ or (2) re-sign him to a 3-year deal at 5m/yr using Bird rights or (3) re-sign him to a 3-year deal @ 5m/yr using room exception (if we need cap to sign Kyrie) or (4) include him in a mid-season trade like Kawhi or (5) S&T him at end of year. The large 1-year deal might be attractive to KOQ as well.

I would have selected Mikal – Knox would have been my 2nd choice.

(1) My position at the start was that we wanted a higher floor guy like Carter or Mikal; we weren’t in that dire a situation that we needed to swing for the fences. Guys like Kyrie and Kawhi are showing what appears to be real interest in Knicks and other stars will in the future.
(2) All but one of the models at tothemean.com have Mikal in their top 10 and the most predictive model over a long period is “Advanced Consensus” which ranks him 8th just after Carter. That bodes well for him having a high floor.
(3) I gave weight to DX’s view on Knox but looking through their history they’ve been all over the place in their rankings reinforcing my belief that judging potential in any range (9-15 here) is a crap shoot. However, judging Mikal’s floor this draft rates to be more accurate.
(4) Knox’s meh stats at EYBL weakens the argument that it was just a Kentucky thing. He’s hasn’t distinguished himself at any level other than vanilla high school play.
(5) Fiz had a lot input into Knox selection. He implied in press conf that he didn’t think THJ/Courtney were good choices to play the 3. I think he really wanted a 3/4 type on the roster and may have viewed Mikal as more of an SG. Given the logjam we already have at the 2, that would have been a problem. All of that probably impacted how he viewed Knox in the workout and just in general.
(6) I put Knox 2nd because nobody jumped out at me from the group of Miles, SGA, Zhaire, etc. He appears to be a smart kid, very self-aware of what he needs to work on. He wasn’t a very good shooter in high and made tremendous strides when he worked on that. Improved handle when focused on it. His floater, his improving shooting and ability to shoot off motion suggest he might be a natural scorer. imo that’s a better bet than others.

So Robinson and Trier both have checkered stories. Trier seems like he should have been draft-worthy…shot very well, 40 inch vertical, what’s the red flag? As to Robinson, when’s the last time a guy was drafted this high based on such limited info?

Trier was suspended for testing positive for a PED this past season. Not sure what to make of that but if there was a perceived red flag I imagine that had a lot to do with it. My choice of the UDFA bunch assuming we could only have one would’ve been Gary “most productive player in the NCAA” Clark, but I think Trier was a perfectly good choice. The steals and rebounds aren’t where you want them to be, but his 2P% has always been pretty good for a guard so I think there’s a decent chance his driving threat is good enough to make the 3PT shot a legitimate NBA weapon.

I love De’Anthony Melton, but seeing as how he might just be the NCAA version of Frank Ntilikina I can’t blame the front office for going with Robinson instead. If he pans out to the fullest extent I think he could be exactly the kind of front court player a lot of us have said Porzingis could desperately use (low usage high efficiency scorer, elite rebounder). At the very least I think he’ll return value relative to his draft pick.

I’ve been trying for days to find reasons to be hopeful for Knox and have pretty much come up dry. So that’s too bad.

One other possibility might be to offer Noah/ X? cash for Parsons/McLemore/Carter. McLemore’s been terrible but is an expiring contract; we would waive him right after deal. That would mean 15m to Grizz not even including any cash. A couple of scouts are high on Jevon Carter (and our own ptmilo if my memory serves me) so maybe it’s worth it. Front office is very sensitive to cap and Parsons would add about 3m to 2019 cap if waived-and-stretched versus Noah. Kyrie is the only player worth signing in 2019 and we’d be able to find a way to make that work if he wants to be here. Heck, we might finally be able to trade Courtney if we include Jevon Carter and/or 2nd round pick(s) in a dump to team that’s got enough free cap.

“As to Robinson, when’s the last time a guy was drafted this high based on such limited info?”

Kevin Knox?

A guy named Darko once had a great workout, too. To me this closes the book on great workouts vs actual b-ball production.

Am I looking at the numbers wrong or will the Knicks have enough cap room for 2 max players in 2019?

Am I looking at the numbers wrong or will the Knicks have enough cap room for 2 max players in 2019?

No we’d have about 30m if:
– let KP go through RFA process (17m hold) or agree to max him after sign everyone (17m hold)
– waive-and-stretch Noah
– keep Courtney (whether by design or not able to find trade)
– don’t re-sign KOQ
– presume 2019 pick is #5
– do not renounce Burke and Kornet minimal cap holds

Here is LINK to Capulator result. You could do some “what-ifs” like:
– If we managed to dump Courtney and don’t re-sign KOQ, we’d have about 42m.
– If we dumped Courtney and re-signed KOQ @6m/yr, we’d have about 36m.

If Kanter opts our i’d At least look at players this summer. randle, Parker, Hezonja. We can probably sign one of those and still have one max slot next summer if we think we can trade lee and stretch Noah. Not a lot of teams have space this summer so there may be bargains to be had…

ptmilo,

well, RPM wins actually includes on/off so you are welcome pick that one. yes, of course, summary stats are highly imperfect. you know else imperfect? bullshit. and by that i mean words that cascade out of people’s mouths with infinite degrees of freedom.

but look. if you think summary stats are arbitrary you would be even MORE excited to make this bet. because the best is structured such that you win all toss-ups and the entire bottom part of the distribution.

I’m not sure where any of this is coming from.

1. I never said that boxscore stats are “arbitrary”. I believe the game is more complex than boxscore stats alone can capture. If it wasn’t, all the boxscore models would produce very similar results & all the elite coaches & organizations would always play the highest rated players. Obviously, something is amiss because neither is true. In some cases, it’s wildly false.

Of course stating that is not the same as saying they are useless. It’s not black or white (although “grey” is a color that seems to be lost on young people nowadays).

2. One can think using boxscore stats ALONE is problematical for discussing players because people use different models and also think they are a useful tool in the toolbox that requires other stats and sometimes a subjective analysis to get closer to reality. Some people seek mathematical certainty, but sometimes it’s not available, at least not yet.

3. As to Mikal & Dotson, I’m really not sure where you are coming from. I’ve been saying all along that I’d WAY rather have Mikal than Dotson. So what are we betting? That we agree? lmao

All I’ve said is that they are a similar profile as players in terms of strengths, weaknesses, & position.
That’s why I used the term “rich man’s Dotson to describe Mikal”. Mikal is a better version of Dotson as a opposed to Knox who has a totally different skillset &amp plays 3/4 not 2/3.

Have the Knicks listed the players on the summer league team yet?

I’d love to see my guy KO in Golden State. He’s an excellent passer, rebounder, defender, and he’s an efficient scorer. I’d love to keep him home but if not, go be a winner in Golden State.

Next year’s draft is really a one player draft. RJ Barrett is the trophy and any outcome where the Knicks don’t position themselves to land him next June is an unacceptable one. Let’s trade Courtney Lee, let Enes Kanter walk, and start Burke, Hardaway Jr, Lance Thomas, Kevin Knox, and Mitchell Robinson. Make sure Mudiay plays 2800 minutes, and boom. 15 win season and top odds to land RJ Barrett.

Re: “Been doing my own research” and “watched film”…

Yeah, we all read the same articles and viewed the same youtube videos on Robinson that you did. Yeah he’s super athletic and flunked out of Western Kentucky. I can’t wait to see him either, but don’t front like you’re Jerry West or something.

@29 I actually go a little further than the normal “reads articles” and 5-6 minute YouTube clips. I watch interviews, look back at whole game tape on the internet whether it be his EYBL games, high school all star games, workout videos, instagram clips, and basically anything that has to do with Mitchell Robinson. He’s not the most articulate kid, but it’s false that he flunked out of WKU. He left campus and that broke school rules so he was suspended from the team. From there is where he decided to leave school and workout by himself.

So no, I’m not Jerry West and I never claimed to be, but I probably spend more time watching these kids than most people here.

Lol
Ok he didn’t flunk out, he merely quit going to class.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that. The whole student athlete thing at that level is a scam anyway.

Knocking Knox is a big part of what we do here, but . . .

3- 3 Yeah, it’s not the same as 5 -5. However, if you’ve ever played 3-3 full court, then you know that athleticism and skills are much more obvious. The court isn’t clogged and guys can really run the floor. You’ll see a lot of stuff that’s bottled up in a crowded court. Best athletes dominate.

Interviews – they can be tricky. Confident, charismatic guys can be extremely alluring. And misleading. Or, you can get to see someone’s work ethic and possibly chart their future progress considering their attributes.

So, the big gamble is that we didn’t take Mikal even though Knox has a much higher ceiling . . . and probably a slightly lower floor? lol.
C’mon.

So, the big gamble is that we didn’t take Mikal even though Knox has a much higher ceiling . . . and probably a slightly lower floor?

Knox doesn’t seem like a high-ceiling player to me. To me, he seems like a scoring wing who is not going to stuff the boxscore in other ways, and will be a passable at best defender. That is not a super high ceiling. His ceiling is “good one-way player.” His floor is that he busts entirely, never raises his scoring efficiency and STILL has no secondary skills.

Mikal Bridges is a two-way player, who was very efficient throughout his college career (albeit on low usage as a freshman and soph) and who has a good reputation as a defender. His floor is WAY higher than Knox’ floor. Mikal can shoot, and he can defend, and he’ll be a rotation player in the league for many years.

Knox doesn’t seem like a high-ceiling player to me. To me, he seems like a scoring wing who is not going to stuff the boxscore in other ways, and will be a passable at best defender. That is not a super high ceiling. His ceiling is “good one-way player.” His floor is that he busts entirely, never raises his scoring efficiency and STILL has no secondary skills.

And who knows, maybe he’ll break a leg getting out of his car or get some rare virus after eating kale.
If you want to see negative, that’s what you’ll see.
Right now, no one knows what Knox is going to be. But he’s 18, with a great NBA body, a nice stroke and a good work ethic.
Possibly, he’s going to be much better than Mikal, who wasn’t going to move the needle on the knicks.

Good work ethic? Based on what and compared to who?

Rudy Gay would have to sign a one year deal, and that sounds awesome.

You are assuming that Knox was surrounded by inferior or “Wack” players. Presumably, the Knicks are smart enough to see that, if it were the case. And if you have a chance at someone like Doncic, an on site interview and workout would just be used to check for red flags and you wouldn’t use a workout to decide. But at pick number 9, where teams usually end up with eventual ordinary starters or eventual role players, there were lots of differences of opinion among draft pundits and mock draft boards. So that makes it a close call, and it’s reasonable for the on-site workouts and interviews to make a difference.

Personally, in my experience with hiring, I’ve found that a team approach to interviews works well and the discussion afterwards captures a lot of things; more things than one person would find on their own. So I’m happy with how the Knicks did things this year. That doesn’t mean they made the right pick, but it helps.

we’re using the knicks as a call to authority? really?

your approach to hiring might involve a pretty robust process i’m sure… but i highly doubt that it involves seeing tape recordings of what applicants did everyday in the past year….

this is not business… this is a game… one that is based on skill…. and skill is determined by a consistent advantage that one can exploit .. so basing it on a workout in non realistic scenarios is just about the worst way to judge a prospect because you need a larger sample to observe that and you need representative conditions AT THE VERY LEAST..

it is absolutely nothing like interviewing candidates unless you happen to think non-basketball reasons like how they answer questions is an important factor to be ‘tie-breaking’…. the only tie-breakers should be what’s happening on the court unless you can demonstrate off-the-court behavior makes a difference….

@48 did Kanter tell you that?

How much are both mini-max & full max in the first year? Will we have enough room for two of them in 2020?

Or even one next summer without stretching Noah?

Knox in all likelihood answered some questions with that workout that proved to the team that he’s probably closer to a 40% shooter from 3 than that 34% he posted in college. The handle is likely tighter than when he last played in college, but I think the big thing with Knox is learning how to play off ball defense. He got lost a lot in a non vocal Kentucky defense but when he was on ball he’d play engaged and would do a good job stopping the man in front of him.

I think Knox’s shooting is going to be a pleasant surprise and that skill alone should make him a rotation player early on. He’s athletic but his game is really more below the rim than anything else, and sometimes you can see the polish on a kid as young as he is. You could argue he plays the game at one speed or you could argue he plays the game under control, and that’s really all on what color lenses you wanna view him through.

Knox could be Landry Fields, Jeff Green, Jabari Parker (who is way better than those injuries make him look), or he could be Melo. I don’t really think he’ll ever be more than an average team defender but I don’t think he’ll be an incapable liability defensively. He’s been hearing about his motor and defense ever since he was linked to the Knicks, so I expect him to come into Summer League right away and look to answer those specific questions. Looking at Knox, I see his ceiling as a guy who uses the post to set up his floater game over either shoulder, a borderline elite shooter in catch and shoot situations, and a Joe Johnson type of slow cooker in isolation sets. Defensively, I hope he improves as a team defender, and if he does it’ll be a credit to Fizdale’s team because there is nothing on his film to suggest he’ll be more than a step too slow on that end.

At least he’s not a tweener, am I right guys

I wonder if Kanter will give up making $18.6m this year for a full midlevel exception 4 year deal? If what I’m reading is correct, that would start at $8.8 million for the first year, with 5% raises each year after that.

Giana: max salaries are based on years of service – 25% of the cap for up to 6 years, 30% for 7-9, 35% for 10 or more.

In 2019 the cap is expected to be $108m. So a ‘mini-max’ – a max for a younger player – is about $27m. If we hold off signing KP, waive Lance, sign no-one for more than 1 year this summer, we owe around $75m to 5 players in the summer of 2019. But our space will be reduced by Knox, Mitchell, our 2019 pick hold and 4 min roster charges. If we’d pick 9th again, these will total around $13m, so we’d have about $20m in space.

This can increase if we stretch Noah (save $11m) trade Lee (save up to $12m).

But if we don’t give one out in 2019, and hold back that space, we can probably get to a max plus some meaningful additional money that summer.

“Hold…back” on spending? That doesn’t sound like something I’ve heard from the Knicks before and I don’t know if Mills knows it, either.

Knox doesn’t seem like a high-ceiling player to me. To me, he seems like a scoring wing who is not going to stuff the boxscore in other ways, and will be a passable at best defender. That is not a super high ceiling. His ceiling is “good one-way player.” His floor is that he busts entirely, never raises his scoring efficiency and STILL has no secondary skills.

Who do you think will be a more impactful player in 3-4 years?