Knicks Morning News (2018.05.16)

Woody out in Los Angeles. Sure seems like he’s going to want to come here, no? Something must be up there, right? Seems unlikely he would just walk away unless something went down between him and Doc.

Anyway – too bad we didn’t move up, but on the other hand, we didn’t move down either, and we had 2x the chance of moving down as moving up.

The Michael Porter thing is pretty interesting. Nate Duncan / Danny Leroux brought up on their podcast that Porter might in fact control his draft position more than you would think he would in that he can decide which teams to share his medical reports with — and that with a back injury that cost him an entire season, teams will need to see those reports before drafting him. ESPN/DX’s big board has him at #8 — can one possibly imagine Cleveland picking a possible medical red flag with Lebron’s free agency looming over them just a week later? Assuming they keep the pick, I see a Bridges or Collin Sexton as a more likely fit with Cleveland – assuming they actually keep Lebron, they desperately need more impactful defenders (both Bridges and Sexton probably fit that bill), 2-way wings, and shot creation from someone other than Lebron.

I can see Porter working out for teams in the top 5 then shutting it down so if he drops beyond 5 he can more successfully choose his location.

Say what you will about his weaknesses, but he was a high probability to go #1 or #2 pre-season, and assuming he is healthy, certainly didn’t do anything this season that should have diminished that level of talent.

Doncic, Ayton, Bagley and Jackson will all be gone. After that, though, Things should be unpredictable, and we’re guaranteed one of the following if Perry and Milks want them.

Porter
Bomba
Young
Carter
Mikael

This seems to be the general consensus.

I’m bracing myself for Perry deciding to take Sexton instead of one of those guys.

Everything he’s said and done indicates he has no faith in Frank to ever develop as a 1 and is obsessed with finding a replacement. He went for Mudiay. Sexton is the Mudiay of this draft. I think it’s inevitvable.

That would give us an insanely imbalanced roster which would force us to play smaller guards at forward:

1 Sexton, Burke, Mudiay
2 Hardaway, Lee, Frank, Dotson
3 Thomas
4 Porzingis
5 Kanter, Noah

That kind of mess seems about right, doesn’t it?

Will be so interesting if Trae Young is somehow still on the board for us. Talk about a boom-bust proposition. He would be absolutely victimized on the defensive end, even if his offense is as good as advertised. Hard to know whether he could become adequate like Steph — Steph is significantly taller (although is his wingspan only 6’3″?).

Some here (including me) were not very high on Smart, Rozier, Brown or (especially) Tatum. So all of our draft prognosticating is highly suspect. Perhaps our best move is to find out who the Celts and Spurs think highly of and draft one of those guys.

As to last night, there are 2 silver linings:
1) the Celts didn’t get #2
2) all the recent dialogue about who we should draft at #9 isn’t wasted

@9 – yes, but Trae seemingly has far superior offensive upside than Trey… literally no one in college basketball history has put up Trae-type numbers, much less as a freshman in a real conference.

@13 – yeah you get the feeling that Sexton is just super-competitive on both ends of the floor and a really hard worker. That game where Alabama played 3-on-5 or whatever and actually made it a game was pretty awesome.

Maybe a little Scary Terry to him?

the issue is that we have a gazillion 2 guards because we dont have a playmaker 1 guard, so they all get moved to the off guard spot. frank, trey, mudial, baker, lee, thjr, none of them are lead guards

@16 – Honestly aside from Frank and arguably THJ and Burke none of the rest would factor into my decision. Baker, Lee and fucking Mudiay shouldn’t be part of any consideration. If Mudiay or Baker make some quantum leap that would be a good problem to have, but if Stevens can find minutes for Kyrie, Rozier and Smart when they’re all healthy then it shouldn’t be an issue for us.

@14 – Yeah, I agree. If you’re looking for a kid who would outperform his draft slot you probably want to bet on the one who has been obsessive about maximizing his abilities and perfecting his craft since his balls dropped.

Pretty good graphic from @knicksfilmschool re: the ~50% hit rate on #9 picks since 1997, which honestly is not that bad a hit rate–

https://twitter.com/KnickFilmSchool/status/996741961947238400

for those too lazy to click, 10 out of the 21 #9 picks since 1997 have made at least 1 all-star game. 5 of the 21 he considers “too early to tell” — DSJ, Poeltl, Kaminsky, Trey Burke, Vonleh. 1 = started some games (Przybilla). 5/21 busts/bench/scrub – Sweetney, DJ Augustin, Diogu, Rodney White, Patrick O’Bryant.

If you ask me, you can call Kaminsky and Vonleh busts/scrubs already, but still — 10/21 have made at least 1 ASG and 4/21 have a real shot at HoF –> Dirk, McGrady, Shawn Marion (IMHO), Iguodala and lots of other really solid players – Hayward, Kemba, Joakim Noah, Drummond, Derozan, Amare.

I think Marion should get to HOF but don’t think will get there.

From Zach Lowe:

The Kings made the jump only because they lost a “coin flip” (actually a separate drawing) in April with the Bulls. Had that coin flip gone the other way, Chicago owns the four-number combination in question and is picking No. 2. Atlanta similarly won Tuesday night by losing a coin flip with Dallas, which fell to No. 5.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23515949/zach-lowe-2018-nba-draft-lottery-phoenix-suns-sacramento-kings

The three most disgusting teams in the tank were Dallas, Chicago, and Memphis. Memphis fell the furthest and Chicago and Dallas both lost coin flips that would have netted them a top 3 pick.

That is fucking delightful.

If Wendell Carter is taken the next best move would be to trade down with LAC if LAC is willing. There’s very little marginal difference between the 2018 prospects at 9 and 12/13 beyond Carter, who is a tier above everyone else in that possible range. (I have him at 2 or 3 overall in the draft lol)

I’d trade down and maybe give them our Chicago second to sweeten the pot if they were balking, and draft 2 of Robert Williams, Jontay Porter, SGA, Zhaire Smith and Troy Brown.

My preferred pairing would be Robert Williams and Troy Brown or SGA (I’m pretty torn between Brown and SGA as 2nd BPA behind Robert Williams, who I’m very high on–id probably choose Brown though). You could also easily talk me into Jontay and Zhaire, however. I think they’re all at least as good of prospects as the Bridges’ tbh.

In my opinion Sexton is far and away the worst lottery pick in this draft. Bad A/TO, undersized, poor passing numbers, average efficiency volume scoring, anonymous defense, lack of secondary skills like rebounding, boxing out, etc. I love his intangibles but you simply cannot ignore the lack of projectable NBA production because of his propensity to work hard. I’d almost draft him in the 2nd round, that’s how low I am on him. Nevermind the fact that we have 2-3 point guards currently on the roster.

In keeping with my comments in 26, I think if we don’t trade down and Carter isn’t there (or maybe Porter, depending on injury info) that we should probably reach for Robert Williams or SGA all things considered (with an off chance of Zhaire). I’d be fine with the Bridges’ but I think Robert Williams is a top 7 prospect in this draft and would be absolutely monstrous on defense playing PF next to KP. Mikal is older and doesn’t project to do much beyond 3nD unless he develops his passing ability significantly. His shooting numbers will largely translate to above average NBA numbers I think, but he would have to be an elite defender to really give us value because of fairly pedestrian secondary skills and some draft analysts have expressed some skepticism that his defense will fully translate iirc.

I think Miles is better than KB consensus, but he’s still seriously undersized both in height and wingspan and I don’t think he has the tools to effectively play the 3, which troubles me. I feel much more confident in Robert Williams, SGA, and even Zhaire Smith than I do in the Bridges’

This isn’t even mentioning Troy Brown, who I think is a top 10 pick material but will never be picked by us, since he’s mocked around #20.

@31

Iirc Smart is better on offense than his box score indicates because of his good rebounding numbers for a guard and because of his screening ability. He’s still not a positive on that end but he doesn’t gum up the works as much as you’d think just by looking at his box score.

I was very high on Smart coming out because I thought he had a very high floor and it was likely he’d improve in the NBA. I was dead wrong about him getting better.

Re: Sexton, I haven’t done enough scouting to pass judgement on him, but Burke and Mudiay shouldn’t stop us from drafting him if he is BPA.

True, but he’s clearly not going to be BPA at 9. We’ll almost certainly be able to take either Mikal Bridges, Wendall Carter, Bamba, or Porter. And if one of those guys is available, then Frank+Burke+Baker+Lee+Timmy+Dotson+Mudiay is a very good reason to not draft Sexton.

Sexton has a great profile for the type of player worth taking a risk on in the 20s or the second round.

@37

I mean, you’re replying to the guy that thinks a full statline of similarities between two guys sharing a position is cherry picking, it’s not like adding more statistical evidence will make the troll go away.

Okobo will probably jump up to late first, but I wouldn’t mind drafting him if he’s available at 36 with our Chicago pick. Still would prefer Isaac Bonga, though.

Frank – 9.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.4 steals. FG% 36.4, 3P% 31.8, FT% 72.1
Smart – 12.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.5 steals, FG% 36.7, 3P% 30.1, FT% 72.9

This is why stat-heads need to watch the games.

@42

They do and they’ve always done it. Frank is just pointing out how similar the stats are, and Smart is also a tall guard who is primarily a defender and not much of an offensive player. How can it be so hard to understand his point, my goodness.

For anybody doubting the greatness of Michael Porter Jr because of his limited college minutes, here’s a rundown on who he is:

MPJr is a 6’10” combo forward with a 7’0” wingspan. In high school he averaged 37 points and 14 boards a game. He took his team in Missouri to a state championship, and then his father got a job as an assistant at the University of Washington, so they moved to Washington. He then, in his senior year, won a state championship at that school, which was the worst school in that division.

In 2016 he dominated the U18 FIBA championships with Markelle Fultz. He was the only forward invited to Steph Curry’s basketball camp, and that camp is reserved for the best guard prospects in the country. At that camp, he won the annual 1v1 tournament and he famously played against Dennis Smith Jr.

At the Nike Hoop Summit? He dominated that week. McDonald’s All American game? Once again dominated that week.

Long story short, you’re talking about the closest thing to Kevin Durant you can find. He’s a three level scorer and a plus rebounder, and I have no doubt in my mind he would have been the #1 pick in the draft if he didn’t have the back injury. He’s a great athlete with a smooth jumper and the ability to create off the ball. Ayton and Doncic are excellent prospects. Ayton is a lot like KAT, Doncic is a lot like Harden, and MPJr is a lot like Durant. If he falls to #9 and we take him, provided his health checks out, that kid is going to be a force of nature. I’ve never heard of a prospect so good that he got his father two coaching jobs just so they could recruit him. Don’t let the limited minutes fool you; MPJr is going to dominate in the NBA.

@45

They see, you’re just making a huge strawman of Ntilikina = Smart when all Frank said was they were similar type players (and Smart is obviously more impactful at this point) to try to engage on a bizarre anti-stats crusade. Similar type of player means they produce in similar ways, which is literally what the stats suggest. Devin Booker and Kobe Bryant are similar type of players at the same point in their careers and yet saying that still doesn’t mean and won’t ever mean they’re the same player or their impact is the same.

Reading comments instead of blindly following an agenda is a good idea.

The stats are definitely similar enough for the comparison to stand as something interesting on its own, and that’s good discussion in my opinion. Simply dismissing interesting stats like that when they don’t fit a particular narrative heavily lowers the level of discussion here for me, as does the whole tired ass “do you even watch games bro?” retort that inevitably comes with it. Yeah, we all have TVs.

blah blah blah

When KP comes back and is on the court with Frank and Mikal we are going to have a plus defense. If the latter 2 are on the court with him because they’ve earned the starting job with adequate offense people are going to be screaming that we shouldn’t be winning all those late season games.

Charlie Rosen used Frank and Pippen in the same sentence. Isn’t that enough for you guys. 😉

After reading that post by “The Glass Half Rebuilt” I may have to change my thinking. Even if he’s only half right that was good.

Seriously, the logic of comparing first-year box score stats is highly flawed. Some players develop, some don’t.

Smart seems like exactly the kind of player that the box score does not fully appreciate, so he will be undervalued by any advanced stat that is derived from traditional box score stats. Much of his value occurs when his team doesn’t have possession…either on loose balls or on defensive impact both on and off the ball. He seems to come up with critical hustle/toughness/high-IQ plays when the game is in the balance.

Life is about making difficult choices where all you can do is choose the best possible guess. If MPJr is there at 9, I hope they’ve done their homework because he’ll either turn out like Joel Embiid or like Greg Oden. And they’re going to have to live with that choice.

Given how they’ve approached the coaching search, I’m confident Perry and Mills will put in the same due diligence into the health of each of their possible draftees.

Going back to Mudiay, Fizdale promises to be the first coach that will actually out in the time to develop him and his game. Let’s see how Fizdale approaches it, as well as how Mudiay responds. Until then, I refuse to write the kid off.

Hornachek did work on Mudiay’s skills to some extent, although he used games to build up his lackluster conditioning, which is NOT how I would have done it. I would have put him through a personal mini training camp where I would have had him working with one of the trainers or coaches on skills and then having him run sprints seemingly ad infinitum before even considering putting him into games.

There’s something to the conditioning thing as, upon returning to the bench after starting those 14 games, his game suddenly improved such that he started posting positive +/- games consistently. Then there were the 2nd half dropoffs and a strong 1st half. So I’m looking for a noticeable improvement in skills, conditioning and overall play because, at this point, Mudiay is playing for his career.

He checks so many boxes on the plus side of the ledger

What are the many boxes that he checks on the plus side of the ledger?

I’ve got “he’s fast” and “he’s pretty tall for a point guard.”

Bud took the Milwaukee job.

If he cuts down his unforced errors, learns to finish at the rim, improves his shot, and commits to defense, he can be an outstanding PG.

If Geno Smith becomes more accurate with his throws, learns to read defenses better and stops turning the ball over, he can be an outstanding QB.

If Tim Tebow learns better strike zone discipline, gets better at making contact and improves his defensive range, he can become an outstanding major league baseball player.

If Chris Smith improves his shot, works on his handle, gets better at defense and really commits to playing a team game, he can become an outstanding basketball player.

If Carrot Top works on his delivery, sets up his punchlines better and stops relying so much on props for his comedy, he can become an outstanding comedian.

If Kanye West learns about fabrics, gets better taste, learns about proportions and develops a better eye, he can become an outstanding fashion designer.

If Tommy Wiseau gets better at writing, develops a sense of mise en scene, masters camera angles and works on his accent, he can become an outstanding actor and director.

If Creed gets better at chord changes, writes better lyrics and Scott Stapp learns to sing better, they can become an outstanding rock band.

If Tommy Wiseau gets better at writing, develops a sense of mise en scene, masters camera angles and works on his accent, he can become an outstanding actor and director.

you know, I used to like you, JK47

Have you seen his biceps, though? Anyone with that kind of dedication and work ethic can become a top-level comedian with the right system and coaching. Frankly, I’ve always found guys like Patton Oswalt’s and Louis C.K.’s bodies a little troubling — a bit of a tweener (betwixt fat and obese) and I feel like if you’re going to slot yourself in as a fat-guy comic, you need to go full Patrice O’Neal and commit to the role.

Here’s the thing about Mudiay. Let’s say, in the unlikely event, that Fiz does get him to play better this year, say a lot better. Then what?

He’s going to want to get PAID. And the better he plays, the more he’s going to want.

Do you then risk giving him a big deal when his first good year is when he’s playing for his next contract? I guess you’d have to just in case he’s finally “arrived” as a player. But for the guy to be so out of shape and unwilling to play D last year, that’d be a huge risk.

Damnit, I had a joke all lined up about how Pauli Shore is not an All-Star and Carrot Top just needs better teammates in his lineup to really breakthrough, but you’ve all ruined it with your stats. Watch the sets, nerds!

Carrot Top is a high volume joke creator. Sure, a lot of them miss, but that just creates more opportunities for other comics.

The number of Carrot assists all his missed jokes create makes his teammates stats better, so there’s really no questioning his production.

Has anyone seen Carrot Top live? Need to know if he looks like he has a Friar’s Club-ready body.