So if I understand it correctly, if we beat Toronto tonight, we all but guarantee that they will be the sixth seed. And since our chances of passing Boston are pretty slight, I would not mind at all having to play Toronto as our first round match up.

I was kind of surprised to learn that Tatum is shooting 33% from deep this year, after shooting 34% last year (on over 10 3PAs/game!). In his last 5 seasons, he only shot above 35% once.

Josh Hart is a career 35% shooter from deep.

It goes to show that the willingness to shoot does go a long way.

Also: Josh Hart leads the Knicks in 3P% this season.

work has been crazy and so i haven’t had so much time to watch games, but I made a point of watching last night (Prime Video’s 10 second skip ahead is terrible btw)– random thoughts:

1) i honestly have never seen Boston’s defense get stuck in the blender as much as they did in the 4th quarter last night. 4Q stats – Knicks shot 12/18 from the field, 8 assists, zero TOs. 14 points in the paint compared to 4 for Boston. As to whether Boston was holding something back strategically/schematically for the playoffs, I don’t know.

2) KAT/JB 2 man game was honestly amazing. JB’s pocket passing has been so much better recently – I don’t know whether they’ve been working on it in practice, whether there’s something they’re doing spacing-wise that is making it easier for him, but it has been so different. He also had a behind the back pass to KAT on a pick and pop 3 that he very rarely does.

3) I would love to see trends in terms of passes off drives for KAT as the season has gone on. Whether it’s a drive or on the short roll after getting a pocket pass from JB, it really seems he is trying not to do those bull in a china shop fouls that he did so frequently earlier… again I haven’t watched much recently, but it’s noticeable to me when I do watch (does anyone know where one can find offensive foul data?)

4) When KAT and JB play passable defense as they did – Knicks are going to be tough

5) the new 2Q/4Q starting rotation -> is this so that it’s harder for opposing coaches to Hack-a-Mitch?

6) KAT pre-ASB -> TS 59.7 on 26.1 usage. Post-ASB -> TS 67.3 on 25.5 usage and a net rating of +18.

by the way if anyone is not following @shaxnba twitter account – he goes through a few of the knicks actions last night and how they adjusted to what the celtics were trying to do.

also this thread – excellent: https://x.com/azmatlanba/status/2042574269176033615?s=20

I would not take much away from the game last night in terms of how we match up with Boston. Sure, there were positives, most notably that Brunson made everyone better on a level that is very encouraging. But this iteration of the Celts revolves around Jaylen Brown. There was one game this year where Brown iso’ed vs. Brunson and got whatever he wanted in the paint. Last night, the plan seemed to be to isolate Tatum on Brunson, but it didn’t work because Brunson played him quite well without the need for doubling (which made it clear to me that Tatum is still pretty compromised despite the gaudy stats.)

And more than anything else, I think that a series against them will come down to how well we deal with Brown’s forays into the paint.

Missed the game because i thought it was today! (faceplam)

But i loved reading this…

Brunson had a sensational game, every bit of a star PG that makes his teammates better.

We need the best version of Brunson to stand a chance in the playoffs.

KAT pre-ASB -> TS 59.7 on 26.1 usage. Post-ASB -> TS 67.3 on 25.5 usage and a net rating of +18

And yeah, we also need KAT at his best, so this is great to hear too. 🙂

Of course we need everybody at their best, but there are some that we can trust to be, like OG and Mitch. I hope Mikal is at his best too, but that guy is an enigma to me.

We won against the Celtics, so i had to give LIKE to every comment on the thread. LOL

So I guess the ideal first round playoff scenario for us (and our main EC competition) is:

Knicks vs Raptors
Cavs vs Hawks
Celtics vs Hornets (assuming they can move up to 7 or 8 and win their play in game)

“So if I understand it correctly, if we beat Toronto tonight, we all but guarantee that they will be the sixth seed.”

That depends on the Hawks. Toronto has the tiebreaker with the Hawks. So if we beat Toronto, Atlanta would probably have to win their last two games to finish 5th. They would pretty much be in the driver’s seat, meaning that if they would rather play us than the Cavs they could kind of tank.

So yes, if we win tonight, it make it more likely that we face Toronto in a 3-6 matchup (assuming ATL beats CLE who is resting Spida, Allen, Merrill, and Bryant, which would clinch our 3rd spot). But it also makes it so that Orlando still would have a very outside shot to finish 6th, if Toronto went on to lose to the Nets (highly unlikely).

Now in the very unlikely event that we lose and Cleveland wins, Sunday will determine who finishes 3rd and 4th.

I know that Charlotte has been on a run, but I think Orlando would be the most dangerous play-in team for the Celts to face. They have lots of young legs with defensive length and depth, and Suggs, Carter, Bane, Isaac, and Mo Wagner are all kind of dirty.

Despite their records against Boston and Detroit, I think I’d rather play Detroit in round 2? Given how uncertain the Hawks/Raptors situation is, it almost doesn’t matter whether they finish 3rd or 4th for the first round matchup anyway.

52 wins!

It’s silly but it’s nice to see us surpass last year’s win total while also playing our starters less minutes and giving significant PT to bench pieces and guys like Diawara and Kolek have gained some experience.

I don’t expect neither of them to play in the playoffs that much but it is nice to know that if we’re forced to play them, they won’t be completely green and one of them could be the kind of random move a coach makes in a playoff game that shifts a quarter or a game.

Also nice to see Clarkson play and know that Brown has options to play him or Alvarado (or Kolek even), if things get stale.

The team is healthy and ending the regular season in better fashion than last year. With a deeper team and a veteran core that has gone through battles together.

They know what needs to happen.

I don’t know…dare I dream that we could put it all together and make a serious run? It won’t be easy. Boston and Detroit are going to be very hard to beat. Cleveland won’t be easy either. But I like our chances. I really do!

Interesting to see that The Athletic has a player’s poll that puts Shai as MVP at 56% vs. 37% for Jokic. With Wemby way down. Clearly I have a bias, as I put Jokic at #1 this year. But admittedly that’s my default, it’s been his to lose (to me) every year of late, and he’s done nothing to convince me he shouldn’t be given the award this year. YMMV.

Given how well Indiana played OKC, I think the Knicks had a real shot last year, maybe their best shot. If only that mental breakdown in the end of game 1, and then game 2 of the ECF didn’t happen… This year seems tougher.

I think this is a better team than last year but this team has a harder road

A few quotes from the Macri newsletter for those who don’t get it…

Since March 1, Jalen Brunson is fourth in the league in assists at 9.2 per game, trailing only Nikola Jokic, Josh Gidey and Cade Cunningham in that time.

Before All-Star, when he shot following a pass from Brunson, Towns hit just 42.4 percent on his 2-point field goals and 23.4 percent of his threes. In their last 15 games, those numbers have gone up to 62.8 percent and 50.0 percent, respectively. JB is also passing to KAT far more frequently of late.

Make as big or small a deal about this as you’d like, but Brunson has had more double digit assist outings in his last 17 games (7) than he did in the first 56 games (6). Something is clicking with the Captain, which is a frightening thought for the rest of the East.

mikal got in his ass…pass the ball buddy…

(Prime Video’s 10 second skip ahead is terrible btw)

yes, this so much…you’re stuck holding fast forward and kinda guessing when play will resume…

kind of sucks a lot of the joy out of skipping the commercials…

thanks for sharing that frank, it drives me a little crazy too…

I was going to post the Macri tidbits as well, because they definitely match my eye-test. The last handful of games have seemed to feature more genuine Brunson/KAT symmetry than the 140+ ones that preceded them, combined.

That Brunson and KAT have been more pretty-good-than-great together is probably the primary reason the feelings around the team (forgive me, I’m making a conscious effort to avoid the word “vibes”) have been uneasy the last few years despite an amount of success that is legitimately unprecedented in my lifetime.

Their net rating together is +4.6, which again, is fine, but is not going to get it done as a “top two players on a contender” pairing. I could put everyone to sleep with more numbers, but I think we all get the sense that their respective success just has not had a lot to do with one another since the experiment began.

It’s tough to know what to attribute to well-meaning efforts that run headfirst into their endemic flaws as players vs obstinance, but in any event, our two best players actually becoming a fearsome duo would be a very welcome development after two seasons.

I definitely agree that we’re better than last year but the east is also tougher.

Flip side, though, I don’t think OKC is unbeatable even though we lost to them both times. And I think there is a small but real chance they get taken out by The Spurs or Nuggets in the WCF, in which case if we did make it to the finals, our chances to win it all would go up A LOT.

But getting through a pissed off Boston wanting revenge and then a pissed off Detroit wanting revenge, both where we don’t have home court, after beating whoever we face in the first round (which we should never sleep on)…man that’s going to be tough.

My hope is that being underdogs in both of those series and also, after the let down of the ECF game 1 last year, that maybe this team will perform above expectations in those series.

good points about the team’s vibe noble…very insightful and in tune with the whole feelings stuff…

Make as big or small a deal about this as you’d like, but Brunson has had more double digit assist outings in his last 17 games (7) than he did in the first 56 games (6).

Is this becaUse Brunson is passing the ball to him in his shooting pocket and better situations/spots or is it because KAT is just making more threes and attacking the rim?

It’s a make or miss league.

The synergy between them was really good last night. There were a couple of sequences where I thought “this could be the best offensive duo in the league if they keep this up.”

I mean, really, there is no reason why a JB and KAT 2 man game shouldn’t destroy opposing teams. Both are 3 level scorers and KAT is a capable (if not elite) passing big man. Pick and roll, pick and pop, pick and roll with an outlet pass to someone open for the 3. Simple actions that allow them to switch defenders where KAT can post up the smaller guy or JB break the ankles of a bigger guy. They should be making life easier for each other.

Maybe it just took some time. But what I saw in the highlights the last few games is really promising.

There’s no doubt that the team is trending positively going into the playoffs. Everyone seems healthy, Brunson-KAT chemistry is building, Deuce has quickly gotten back into the flow, the bench has been solid…even the thought of having to throw Alvo, Mo, Huk, or Kolek out there situationally doesn’t seem like anything to worry about.

I don’t think there is any reason for this team to be afraid of any team in the EC. We can throw lots of effective lineups and strategies out there to counter anything that is being tried by opposing teams. I’m probably more optimistic right now than I have been all season.

Finally found the offensive foul data i was looking for, also drives off passes for KAT (all from NBA.com stats)

Pre-ASB
48 offensive fouls in 51 games (0.94/game)
Assist% 13.1
Only passed the ball on 16.8% of his drives

Post-ASB
17 offensive fouls in 23 games (0.74/game)
Assist% 16.3
Passed the ball on 25.2% of his drives
Last 10 game sample has been passing the ball on 30.4% of his drives

So basically post-ASB he has cut down his offensive fouls by 21%, increased his assist % by 24%, increased his passing off drives by 50%.

And increased his TS to 67.3 while maintaining the same usage.

Pretty crazy.

has part of the issue been MB’s strong desire for penetrate and spray, or trail pull up 3’s…seems to favor shooting guards and wings…

you would have thought jalen and KAT would have figured things out already…how to use each other’s offensive “gravity”…

let’s blame it all on coaching and move forward…

I’m almost scared to contemplate a healthy, mobile and aggressive mitch in the playoffs…

hopefully deuce and landry get their stroke going in these last couple of games…

https://friarbasketball.substack.com/p/providence-grabs-knicks-g-leaguer Dink Pate going to Rhode Island for College Ball.

Happy for Pate. He could really use a college program

Nice data, Frank — glad to see it back up the eye test.

Missed yesterday’s game due to travel, but checked in on the box score during layovers and noted that Tatum got off to a blistering start, like aiming for 50-20-10 or something. But he ended up with a rather pedestrian (for him) line, 24-13-8. Did we do anything different later in the game, like pin OG on him or something? Maybe Mitch’s presence short-circuited his game?

Last night was unique in that at almost every point in the game I felt like the Knicks were going to win. They just looked like the better team. I’m not sure how much of that was Jalen Brown being out, but the last two games the Knicks were playing on a higher level.

FYI, I fall on my sword re Tatum, I looked at the Q boxscores and he really didn’t have anything great going on early. He must have scored a few in a row when I was looking so I had a biased perspective.

Hoping we can keep up the good play tonight. Both teams on back-to-backs, but we have a deeper bench…

yes raven, but did you realize his better half was such a great singer?

Because Sacramento signed him to a one-year deal with no options for next season (but still allowed him to do irreparable harm to its draft position by staying in the lineup), Achiuwa will be an unrestricted free agent who, at 26 years old, should get a lot of attention.

From a piece in The Athletic by Hollinger. Good for Precious. Lol at the Kings. Still OK with not signing him…though it feels better with Mo D breaking out.

But Detroit’s and Charlotte’s turnarounds show just how quickly total incompetence can be corrected. You never know.

Happy for Precious and, honestly, I was a bit sad to see him go because I felt like Brown and his system were actually a good fit for him. But Diawara emerging (if we can hold on to him) more than makes up for that.

Rama, I was about to post the first half of that paragraph! Here it is anyway…

For those of you who haven’t been watching a lot of Kings games the past several weeks, Achiuwa is averaging 15.7 points and 9.3 rebounds on 59.6 percent true shooting since the All-Star break. No, seriously. In that time, the Kings have been shockingly competent when Achiuwa plays (just a minus-3.0 net rating) and mercilessly thrashed when he sits (minus-19.1).

our starting five have all hit the 65 game mark…kudos to them and the med/performance staff…

clarkson has appeared in 70 games, with just one start…

mitch has 60 games played so far, wonder if he and the staff had managed another five at season’s end if he would have been selected for an nba all-defense spot…

precious is an okay player on a bad team…

he and his agent may be specifically willing to wait, sacrifice salary in order to try and find him a starting job…

one of these years it may lead to a 3 year 50 million plus payday…

Deuce and Mitch resting tonight. So are Murray-Boyles and IQ:
Expected Lineup
PG J. Walter
SG B. Ingram
SF RJ Barrett
PF S. Barnes
C Jakob Poeltl

MAY NOT PLAY
G C. Hepburn Out
C T. Jackson-Davis Out
F C. Murray-Boyles Out
G I. Quickley Out

Expected Lineup
PG Jalen Brunson
SG Josh Hart
SF Mikal Bridges
PF OG Anunoby
C K. Towns

MAY NOT PLAY
G T. Kolek Ques
G M. McBride Out
C M. Robinson Out

I’m gonna miss watching Mitch play. But I get it.

Pretty much everyone sitting in this one:
Expected Lineup
PG Nikola Topic
SG Jared McCain
SF Luguentz Dort
PF Aaron Wiggins
C K. Williams

MAY NOT PLAY
F A. Caruso Out
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander Out
C I. Hartenstein Out
C C. Holmgren Out
G Isaiah Joe Out
G A. Mitchell Out
G C. Wallace Out
F J. Williams Out
C J. Williams Out

Expected Lineup
PG J. Murray Ques
SG C. Braun Ques
SF C. Johnson Ques
PF A. Gordon Ques
C N. Jokic Ques

MAY NOT PLAY
G C. Braun Ques
F A. Gordon Ques
F C. Johnson Ques
C N. Jokic Ques
G J. Murray Ques
F S. Jones Out
F P. Watson Out

Great, if you want to watch the Aaron Wiggins show.

mitch has 60 games played so far, wonder if he and the staff had managed another five at season’s end if he would have been selected for an nba all-defense spot…

He still wouldn’t be eligible because he needs to play 20 minutes in those 65 games, allowing for 2 near misses that need to be over 15min.

Perhaps simpler, must have:

* 63 games with 20+ minutes, and
* 2 games with 15+ minutes.

Mitch has cleared 20 minutes only 21 times. So he’d need a couple more games plus he’d need to have played 5 more minutes in most of his other games.

thanks EB 😊

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