As I noted earlier today, this Pacers series really feels like the Hawks second round series in the 1999 playoffs. The first round against the Heat, that was the grind. That was the series the Knicks had to fight and scratch at to win. The Hawks series was then like a breath of fresh air, and the Knicks demolished them. I imagine we shall see the same with the Pacers this year following that hard fought first round defeat of the Sixers. Although I’ll allow that maybe the Pacers will steal a game on some hot shooting.
I think I’d go so far as to say that I think it would be embarrassing if the Knicks don’t win this series. Losing to the Sixers would have been mildly embarrassing (just because it was the first round), but not really that embarrassing. Losing to this Pacers team, though? That’s worse than losing to the Heat last year, as the Heat last year were a tough out, and Spo is a mad genius.
This Pacers team, though, has no one who can slow Brunson down and doesn’t rebound the ball well. It would be a shock for the Knicks to lose to this team.
So I am going Knicks in five (if that).
How about you all?
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76 replies on “Knicks vs. Pacers: Round 2 Prediction Thread”
A buddy of mine is a Pacers fan, and he keeps pointing to the Pacers 2-1 record against the Knicks in the regular season, and it’s, like, I mean, come the heck on, dude. Especially as the Knicks beat them in the last game without OG!
@cyber: There is nothing wrong with “have not been having.” It’s inelegant at worst. š
Knicks in six again.
Knicks in 5 though I do fear they could just run out of gas and lose in 6 or 7.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Precious winds up playing a fair amount at the 5. He’s the best perimeter defender and most switchable of the bigs. The way the Pacers move the ball you have to value guarding the perimeter over protecting the paint. They destroy late rotations so I wonder how impactful Mitch can be on defense given he’s still not moving 100%.
I’m also interested to see if OG gets some time on Hali. I expect him to match up with Siakam most of the time but when Siakam is on the bench? I think he matches up with Hali far better than he does with Maxey (and neither Turner nor Siakam are the screener Embiid is). Hart on Siakam isn’t a great matchup but if OG can stay in front of Hali he can put a major crimp in their offense.
Ultimately, I think as long as the Knicks shoot well from 3 they’ll be fine.
Knicks in 6. I feel that it will be a repeat of the Sixers series, we win both games at MSG, they take one back at home, we lose game 5 and take game 6. However it will be a lot less stressful and the wins are going to look significantly better than they did against Philly.
All three games were without OG.
In fact we played the Pacers on the day we traded for OG so we didn’t have RJ, IQ, OG, or Precious.
I’m going with Knicks in 5 but I’m not nearly as confident as I was against Philadelphia.
We should have an overwhelming edge in physicality but they have a big edge in depth.
I think Thibs was fine against Philadelphia but he scares me in this series. I can see him trotting Robinson out over and over even if it’s a track meet & he can’t keep up.
That’s my thinking too. I think OG on Hali could be the deciding factor in this series as it might ge the most effective to slow them down. Thibs might try to see how they do with a more conventional set up, but if the Pacers’ offense is flowing I think OG on Hali is how they respond. I also wonder if he would dare put a non-center on Turner (another benefit of OG on Hali is his ability to guard Turner as well).
I say Knicks in 6. There will be games where Turner is hitting those 3s from the top of the key and that the Pacers run on every rebound. But I think the Knicks will be able to impose their grind it down way more than the other way around.
Edit: They have now released the schedule for potential games 5, 6 and 7. It’s a game every other day, but before a potential game 6 at home, there are two days of rest. That’s huge, considering that the Pacers have better depth.
Oh sure, but those were losses, so I think it’s more notable to note that they beat them without OG after the Pacers had Siakam. So they couldn’t beat the Knicks with Siakam when the Knicks didn’t have OG. They’re not going to have a chance now that OG is playing.
As someone noted, I guess you can worry about injuries, but then, that’s the case at any point, right? So yes, if Jalen Brunson’s right shoulder explodes tomorrow, then the Knicks probably won’t win this series. Otherwise, how can the Pacers possibly win this one? They could barely beat the Bucks without Giannis! They got destroyed in a game that both Giannis and Dame missed!
^ I made a mistake in my post above – the two days of rest are before game 6 on the road, not at home.
Just finished getting a tattoo of the OG dunk as my tramp stamp
Knicks in six
I’m not expecting excruciating close games like the last series, I’m a bit worried about our (very) limited rotation versus a team that runs like hell and I think we’ll be feeling Julius’ absence much more here, against Siakam, than we did against Tobias Harris…
Also, if Obi would cost us even a single a game I’d be really pissed, we gave him away for peanuts.
Knicks in 6.
Repost from previous thread:
Whatās up Geo? Iām here just basking in this win. My heart was pounding so hard last night that it was a little scary for me. I took a gummy this morning and have just been chilling. I have been checking the blog throughout the day as usual. I donāt have much to add. I definitely would like to see Alike Buds, get another shot. I think we will need another wing as we get deeper into the playoffs. I think Precious may be a better big to use against the Pacers, especially if they are able to get out and run against us. Overall, I think we are the better team and should win in five.
A really nice side note is these last couple of years have really rekindled my oldest daughterās interest in the team. I had forgotten how big of a fan she was in the Sprewell/Houston era. Itās a lot of fun being able to chat with her about the games. She even told me she and her husband were going to try to drive down from Chicago to Indy for a game.
knicks in 6
gonna be a fascinating series I think. very different team to Philly
no obi revenge games pls
Listened to Windhorst’s podcast on my way home from work, all 3 of them (Bontamps and MacMahon) seem to think this should be an easy series for the Knicks. Also they were laughing at how little the Knicks gave up for Josh Hart which of course made me think about this blog and the “debate” about the Josh Hart trade.
Instead of Obi revenge games, can we get Obi gets a highlight dunk but otherwise stands in the corner, misses 3s and forgets to defend games?
I mentioned this yesterday but this is settled now in your favor.
No one in the media was singing that song after the Miami series, though. And definitely not in January when he had been one of the worst offensive players in the entire NBA up to that point.
But Josh put in the work and got the results and now that price looks great even to a doubter like me.
Iād tell yāall to do your dance now but youāve been doing for the last 15 months anyway š
If Orlando could shoot theyād be 20 points ahead.
If they could shoot they’d be a title contender
I voted Knicks in 6. We just defeated a far superior team, but we do have some risk factors in that basically one more injury to anyone would immensely harm our chances, and our 7-man rotation could get ground down by fatigue.
On the other hand, “Itās amazing watching Jalen Brunson. That motherfucker just finds a way. Iād take him over Tyrese Haliburton.”
It’s too bad Bucks/Pacers didn’t go to 7, but it’s nice having 3 days to bask in the glory. If we win this series our season is a huge success no matter what happens in the ECF.
Let’s fucking go!
BBA and Hubie, in case you missed it and since reposting is now a thing, here’s from near the end of the last post, from Macri, re the Hart ‘debate’ (retitled “Not JUST a hustlebunny):
āIn this series, Josh Hart became the sixth player in the last half century to score at least 100 points, grab 70 boards, dish 25 assists and hit 15 or more threes over a six-game span in the playoffs, joining three MVPās and a couple other All-NBA first teamers:ā
(Tatum, James, Jokic, Kawhi, Westbrookā¦ and Hart).
Voted Knicks in 6, but i was really torn between Knicks in 6 and Nick Nurse. š
OMG, me and Pags with the same prediction!? I think this is a sign of the apocalypse! Guys, it was a pleasure to meet you all! š š
So let’s see, the Obi revenge game, the Hali goes off game…
Knicks in sicks.
The Cavs are starting Marcus Morris!?
I canāt figure out which of these teams I want to face Boston.
Orlando I think has a 0% of beating Boston but maybe a 45% chance of lasting 6-7 games.
Cleveland has maybe a 10% chance of getting lucky but also a high probability of getting swept.
Iāll take Orlando.
Fair enough. Even like league average shooting would do them wonders. But they are so so bad at it.
I kind of love Jokicās Minions ad
Donnovan Mitchell came to hoop tonight
Not scared of IND but I wouldn’t be opposed to having either ORL or CLE after 15 minutes of this snooze fest.
Knicks in 6, continuing the trend of not winning series at home
Now Mtichell looks banged up, if he’s hurt I guess the smart thing to root for is an Orlando comeback
Orlando’s offense might be bad but it’s scintillating to watch compared to the Yankees offense.
Georges Niang just being kinda fat and out of shape is a tremendous bit.
Orlando has the aesthetics of the bad boy pistons without most of the talent. Truly ugly ball.
rooting for the magic because i really enjoy suggs and because offseasons are fun when there are more highly disappointed teams
I went back and read the Game 5 thread and those that followed. It’s amazing how many hot takes there were that didn’t age well. Not sure what I would have posted if I had it in me, so can’t really criticize the takes, but it was kind of funny to read after the fact.
One take that fizzled badly was the assumption that Maxey would be great again in game 6. I think that that’s the difference between him and Brunson at this stage. Maxey’s team needed for him to come up big again, and although he had moments in crunch time (the and-1 goaltending call and the clutch FTs on the deliberate foul) he largely laid an egg. OTOH, Brunson came up big when it counted most. But how can you not love Maxey? What he did at the end of game 5 was truly magnificent, even if he traveled on the 4-pt play. And such a likable guy on a not-very-likable team.
Caitlin Clark would be the best shooter on the Magic by a country mile
Mitchell/Garland having the most paint points tonight for a backcourt combo in the playoffs in the last 25 years is crazy
I’m going Knicks in 6, just like last time. I do worry about getting blindsided in game 1 or 2, though and then having to slog it out. I agree with those who say we need to use our bench more, including Precious and Burks. But Thibs is probably gonna Thibs, and IND is the kind of team that can turn a tie into a 20-pt lead in a hurry. So any leash is probably going to be of the very short variety.
Both of these teams are no match for the C’s even without KP.
Enjoy Juan Soto while you can, Al. No oneās ever hitching their ride to Hal again.
cavs and orlando both beat the Celtics twice this season so who knows, maybe they can make them work
It’s hilarious that the Cavs tanked to play against a team that will once again bully them on the offensive boards.
Soto ain’t going anywhere, he’ll be a Yankee for the rest of his career.
You know, I still Orlando is really tough. I know they canāt shoot but they are just so fucking big I canāt imagine Tatum and Brown really want to fuck with those giants for two weeks. Letās root for the Magic. I think they can really tenderize Boston.
How does Evan Mobley have 3 pts in 33 mins?
Is Jaret Allen hurt?
Donovan Mitchell should just go to the Magic.
Yeah, Allen has missed past couple of games with bruised ribs.
Got it, the Cavs certainly miss him.
Is Brunson the best player left in the eastern playoffs?
Could make an argument for Tatum, but fuck that guy.
“Is Brunson the best player left in the eastern playoffs?
Could make an argument for Tatum, but fuck that guy.”
I don’t think there’s a team in the league that would rather have Brunson than Tatum, but hey, they might all just be wrong! Hali probably has a following as well.
I want the Cavs to win. I like Mitchell and can’t stand this Magic team. Would much more appreciate rooting for Cleveland in R2, even though they have no chance
Yankees offense boring first 8 innings but they woke up in the 9th!
Hali and Mitchell definitely in the conversation. And yeah, overall, probably everyone would take Tatum.
But right now? At this exact moment in time, JB might be the best individual performer.
Just find it wild that we can even have that conversation about this guy.
As awesome as Spida was tonight, I really don’t have any interest in acquiring him. Not only “redundant” with Brunson, just not a fan of his overall game.
Brunson is literally producing at MJ level in the playoffs, he’s the best player in the East right now.
If you are interested in an in-depth tactical analysis for Knicks-Pacers, I strongly recommend this discussion hosted by Caitlin Cooper:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1jx9vIa81U
“But right now? At this exact moment in time, JB might be the best individual performer.”
Well Boston hasn’t really had to break a sweat yet and Tatum has a great supporting cast, while Brunson is forced to put the team on his back.
I think this upcoming series will go far in crystallizing where Brunson stands in the hierarchy. Hali is one of his main competitors, and until he got hurt he was putting up like a 9+ BPM. I think Brunson has vaulted ahead of Hali for the moment, and if he keeps on compiling 40-10 games, there will be no doubt as to who is better. But if IND upsets the Knicks, Hali will obviously have a big role in that and might tilt the scales the other way. In any case, it’s freakin’ awesome to be having this discussion.
Brunson is really doing some crazy stuff. Of course the Twitterers are saying he’s not efficient enough but shooting his %s against playoff defense with his usage and still giving out double digit dimes every night is flat out amazing.
The Cavs just played Marcus Morris 27 minutes and he went 1-7… in a crucial playoff game… yeah I’d rather see Orlando advance. They won’t get even close to beating the Celtics but they’ll give them hell defensively and might steal a game. This Cavs team is just so soft and weird, the vibes just seem off, Mitchell is out there doing his thing and nobody seems to step up, sometimes Mobley has a good game, sometimes Garland hits some shots, but I really feel like they’re going nowhere and need a soft reset.
Boston would leave a series against Orlando pretty bruised, I think. I’d like to see that.
“Brunson is literally producing at MJ level in the playoffs, heās the best player in the East right now.”
Brunson has a .525 TS% for these 6 playoff games and a BPM of 5.6. Michael Jordan never had a playoff BPM of less than 8.0 (his 1995 comeback year) and averaged 11.1 for his career.
What I love most about Brunson is that he is a true leader who I believe makes his teammates better. Donovan Mitchell put up better stats in 2020 playoffs and his team lost.
Agreed. I don’t want Mitchell here, either, even though he is very talented.
The %’s are skewed a bit due to the first 2 games which understandably can’t be overlooked but for the entire series Brunson averaged 35.5 pts, 9 asts and 4.5 rebs. What he did the last 4 games of the series hasn’t been done since MJ in 1993 scoring wise and I believe MJ in 1989 or 1990 when you throw in the scoring and asts. LeBron I think also had a series similar to this too.
Obviously Brunson doesn’t come close, nobody ever will, to MJ but his scoring in the playoffs is incredibly approaching MJ levels. The fact that he has put his name on playoff lists with just MJ and Oscar Robertson is mind boggling.
Donovan Mitchell is a weird case to evaluate for me because obviously the talent is there, and he has always been on winning teams his whole career, so clearly he’s doing something right, but he’s also never been on a true contender. When a guy is such a talent yet never reaches contender level, we typically hear stuff about how he’s selfish, or a bad teammate, yet we don’t really hear that about him either.
I don’t know, maybe with him it really is about putting the right roster around him and it just never happened in Utah or Cleveland. I don’t want him either, mostly because of the obviously too high price it would take, but it’s an intriguing situation to try to make sense of.
Brunson’s mid range game has been phenomenal. It always seems like in the playoffs the mid range game, the most inefficient scoring area in the NBA becomes the place where series are won or lost.
Did they even bother sending Scott Foster to Orlando, or did even the league office not care whether this series went to 7 or not. Seems so anticlimactic that this is the game 7 we get rewarded with. Canāt they just flip a coin and start the 2nd round?
It’s just so depressing to see these guys who always get injured…get injured again. Kawhi, KP, it’s so bleak. I mean, obviously the KP injury is huge, as it gives the Knicks a good chance of beating Boston once they get past Indiana (the Celtics would still be favored, of course, but KP was really the one thing that made them stand out over the Knicks. Otherwise, they’re basically just a slightly more talented version of the Knicks).
My initial thought was Knicks in 5; I just didn’t think Indiana would be able to handle us defensively, while we have the tools to shut them down.
But I have to admit I’ve been rethinking that a bit. Our lack of depth could become a real problem against a team that runs at much as the Pacers. Randle would neutralize Siakam, but now we have to do it with OG, probably, which means not using him against Hali. They have shooters and dudes who can penetrate. If Hali is getting over whatever was holding him back, we could get blown out in a few games.
In the end I stuck with Knicks in 5, but I don’t feel very confident about it. Feels much less predictable than the Sixers (which I got right). Absolutely agree we’ll need Precious. Do not agree on Alice Burst.
If we make it to the conference finals and play Boston there, KP could be back from his injury. Itās a reasonable time frame for that.
And yes, Iād like to see Boston have to play Orlando. I think Orlando matches up pretty well with them. But Iām picking Cleveland to win.
good point bidiong…teams make a better effort on defense it seems, try to cut out stuff at the rim and close out on three point shooters…
players normally mostly run on offense – man, look at freaking kyrie irving out there: the glove 2.0…
i’ll take the wolves over the nuggets and the mavs over the thunder…
i am really really surprised KAT made it back so soon and is playing so well…hats off to the mavs remaking their team play in the last few months – they can defend and rebound…and kyrie irving is playing really good defense – which is just so surprising for me to watch, it makes everything he does defensively look twice as effective…
our guys look gassed, i haven’t really watched much of the pacers this post-season, so i don’t know how fresh they look this time of year…
no doubt every time we turn the ball over will directly lead to an obi dunk…
for us, it’ll be keep the turnovers low and keep up with an edge on the boards…
i like the notion of knicks in six, again…
man, got bageled by the 2 boys on the court playing 21 today…as always the game devolved into arguing, we don’t always finish the game…still, early on just couldn’t get a lucky bounce…
redeemed myself a bit while rolling the bocce balls…
oldest son wore my shoulders out playing catch with the football for hours on end…youngest really enjoys frisbee…
unfortunately, i am very aware of my age these days while “playing” with the kids…
i need to find my inner doc bob – and get my spirit and body hard again…i gotta start seriously trying to mitigate this aging bullshit…maybe get another 10 to 15 semi-fit years out of this old chassis…
edit: just had a thought, i should probably wear something different than sandals when i play basketball…
finally got my shoulder looked at – turns out it was upper biceps tendinosis…doing therapy and rehab on it now…still can’t go for a steal with my left arm though…i’m not happy about that, my biggest thrill is stealing the ball from the boys…
how the times have changed…
I think that’s just a bit too tight of a timeframe for KP to return. I think he won’t be back until the Finals (where hopefully he will return to have to watch the Knicks kicking the Nuggets’ ass).
Knicks in 6. Bring on the boys in green.
Brian, I certainly hope you are right.
Knicks in 6. The only thing that scares me is the Knicks lack of depth. They cannot afford another injury, and I also don’t think you can run all of Brunson, Hart, and OG 45 minutes every game without getting them gassed towards the later stages of the series.
Barring unforeseen injuries to the Knicks or Haliburton’s hamstring suddenly healing, this should be Knicks in 5. 6 if the team is totally exhausted.