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Knicks Morning News (2023.12.03)


  • Knicks 119, Raptors 106: Donte TriVincenzo – Posting and Toasting
    [Posting and Toasting] – Sat, 02 Dec 2023 12:12:39 GMT
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  • 53 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.12.03)”

    Mavs pick watch is getting interesting. Right now things are too bunched up to care much about where the pick would fall if the season ended today (20, if you’re curious).

    Kyrie has begun to miss games with a foot issue (that’s the story anyway) and the rest of the non-Luka team is underwhelming. As of now they have he 18th ranked net rating and 21st SRS, largely due to a bottom-10 defense that I doubt is getting much better.

    Things could work out nicely for us…or they could pathetically tank again and leave us with scraps.

    I haven’t checked out really anything with this upcoming draft but I did read something the other day saying it’s supposed to be a pretty bad one. Might be better off if it delays again until next year.

    “…or they could pathetically tank again and leave us with scraps.”

    I think two consecutive years of tanking would be a serious problem for Doncic. He didn’t seem all that pleased about it last year. Barring a rash of injuries or Kyrie going totally off the reservation, I would put the odds of them being a bottom-10 team at, I dunno, less than 20%?

    Obi had another solid game on offense for the Pacers, but this time it included 4 blocks and doing a very good job when isolated against Jimmy Butler. If he’s defending better also, we wuz robbed.

    I will say, though, that the West is literally the Wild West. You have the “locks” to make the playoffs/play-in:
    DEN
    MIN
    PHX
    LAC
    LAL
    OKC

    Then you have the likely to make the cut teams:
    GSW
    SAC
    DAL
    NOP

    And the wild card fringy teams depending on how the season develops:
    HOU
    MEM

    And the lottery locks:
    POR
    UTA
    SAS

    I suppose you can imagine a world where DAL gets bumped down by one of HOU or MEM, but both? Which is probably what it would take to be in the bottom 10 so that the pick would not convey.

    But on closer inspection, maybe 20% is too low.

    “Obi had another solid game on offense for the Pacers, but this time it included 4 blocks and doing a very good job when isolated against Jimmy Butler. If he’s defending better also, we wuz robbed.”

    There was one sequence where I swear he looked at the camera and said “Yo Z-man…f you!”

    There’s a pretty good chance that we will see Obi’s return to MSG on Wednesday…that should be fun!

    Holy crap Indy scored 144 without Hali? Against Miami? I honestly don’t know what to make of that team.

    Edit: guess we’ll find out more today after their big tourney game against Boston.

    Meanwhile, the Bulls are on a nice little run now that LaVine is out with injury. Who would trade for that guy now?

    I don’t know if any team depends on a player more than the Heat depend upon Bam. But still…

    Getting back to the Julius Randle convo, he has a player option at the end of 2024-25. Any speculation on a) whether he will opt in or out, b) what his next contract will look like, and c) whether it will be with the Knicks? (Assuming that he is not traded before then…)

    Obi had another solid game on offense for the Pacers, but this time it included 4 blocks and doing a very good job when isolated against Jimmy Butler. If he’s defending better also, we wuz robbed.

    He played 34 minutes and had 2 rebounds. He is what he is.

    Also, I have my first draft crush: Ryan Dunn, sophomore, UVA.

    Long, rangy, athletic 6’8” defender who can play both forward spots. His defensive metrics are off the charts so far this season; Thibs would drool over his motor. But he also has decent passing chops and handle for a bigger guy.

    His biggest issue rn is outside shooting but that might be improving. Because of that, he might be available at one of our pick slots.

    I know we need more shotmaking, but a big defensive forward with lots of offensive potential would be nice.

    So long as we are committed to Thibs and his penchant for C’s who can’t shoot, I’d stay away from drafting players who also can’t shoot, unless you get Kawhi Leonard vibes from him. In that sense, Dunn’s shot doesn’t look broken, so I agree that he’s worth keeping an eye on…

    Meanwhile, the Bulls are on a nice little run now that LaVine is out with injury. Who would trade for that guy now?

    Phoenix consultant Isiah Thomas

    LaVine might be a really good fit in Detroit…they have some stuff that CHI might want…

    Can you imagine combining the firepower of Durant, Beal, Lavine and Booker?

    Unstoppable!

    This pains me to say because I really like Grimes as a low maintenance starter with quality defense- but with 3 iso downhill type scorers and Mitch in the starting 5, we need someone accustomed to running and cutting to start at SG. So it’s time for DDV to start. Grimes being the only shooter out there absolutely cannot run to a spot and stand there. DDV moves, and it appears that Grimes didn’t learn that from JJ Redick. Maybe playing him with the 2nd unit will inspire him to be more assertive with his off ball movement. Or..we can try to use him in a trade for someone like Finney-Smith or Terrance Mann or something like that. Something has got to give. I’m not advocating to trade him, but either he has to adapt or be moved for another 3&D wing- preferably taller than 6’5″.

    So can anyone confirm that if we lose to the Bucks Tuesday and Indy loses also we definitely play Indy at MSG on Wednesday?

    I’m a season ticket holder and it would be nice to know!

    Can you imagine combining the firepower or Durant, Beal, Lavine and Booker?
    Unstoppable!

    Only one problem for the Suns… the opponent’s offense would be unstoppable too! 😛

    …or they could pathetically tank again and leave us with scraps.

    Last season i was mad at what they did, but this season i’ll be clapping if they do it! #Luka2NY 😀

    saw on social media that it’s the one year anniversary of us losing the the Mavs and falling to 10-13 and panic setting in

    Poindexter, this is the thing that confuses the hell out of me regarding Thibs. He is clearly not averse to cutting, as people who come over from cutting cultures (Hart, Devo) can do so without getting in trouble (!).

    But it feels like he teaches, and expects, his non-iso players to just go stand in the corner. See Obi, and now Grimes.

    Standing in the corner is a great safety valve when your offense is largely generated by iso players driving into traffic, so I get it, but it should not be the ONLY thing a player does on offense. And yet…

    So I echo your frustration with Grimes, but I have one jaundiced eye on the coach and whatever assistants are designing offensive sets for this one…

    @ ess-dog I’d be very happy if we came away from the draft with Dunn and nothing else.

    @Poindexter This is about the point in the season when Thibs started making adjustments, so it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Divo in the starting lineup soon.

    @Strat Looking at his stats through 18 games, I just can’t believe all we can got was two late second round picks.

    Just got done staring at the Pacers, and man are they a fun team. No defense as has been noted, but a fascinating collection of misfit toys that otherwise kinda works. Like the Knicks they have an overabundance of mid-sized wings, but they do different things (Mathurin, Hield, Brown, Nesmith, Nembhard, although the latter is ostensibly a tall PG).

    Even though Hali is playing lights out, Miles Turner may be as important. If he gets dinged, they really don’t have another big to slot in there.

    My two big misses — how really effing good Brunson and Hali would be. Big fan of Hali from the start, like Brunson I figured him for borderline all star at his peak, 19-9 kind of guy — not 27-12 All NBA.

    Yes d-mar, the NBA has already come out with all the schedule scenarios depending on the outcome of the quarterfinals. If Knicks and Indiana lose the Knicks host them on Wednesday, if Knicks and Boston lose Knicks will be at Boston on Friday.

    Obviously if Knicks beat Milwaukee they’ll be in Vegas to play the Indiana Boston winner on Thursday.

    Indy is a fun team to watch. They are constantly running and Haliburton is truly amazing. Of the 11 players on the Pacers that have played in 10+ games or over 100 minutes, only 2 are below the league average in efg% and 4 are well above 60%. Also, despite leading the NBA in pace they are the 2nd best team at protecting the ball.

    I think if they moved Nesmith to the starting lineup over Hield they might be able to make some improvement on the defensive end as well. Nesmith, Turner, and Brown are all good defenders and Obi is looking better so I think there is room for them to improve.

    As for Obi’s rebounding, Indy is really not using him to rebound at all. He is releasing after almost every shot by the opposing team. So there are not a lot of opportunities for him to defensively rebound. He is by no means a great rebounder but I think if he was used more like a conventional 4 he would be at the 7-8 per 36 that he had here over his first two seasons.

    He played 34 minutes and had 2 rebounds. He is what he is.

    As I mentioned yesterday, you can’t ask him to both leak out early to try to get easy transition baskets and get rebounds. It’s one or the other. Carlisle has to weigh whether he would rather play fast and get a few extra easy baskets and leave it to others to get the rebounds or hold Obi back and let him get extra rebounds. If at some point teams are taking away transition (especially in the playoffs), then he may ask him to hit the boards. Then he’ll get more rebounds, but score less points and less efficiently.

    Right now the team is way better with Obi on the court running. So I don’t think he’s going to ask Obi to pad his rebounding stats.

    edit: I see Ben R just said the same thing

    Getting back to the Julius Randle convo, he has a player option at the end of 2024-25. Any speculation on a) whether he will opt in or out, b) what his next contract will look like, and c) whether it will be with the Knicks? (Assuming that he is not traded before then…)

    I’m not sure what Randle will do, but overall we have quite a few players that are either underpaid or on a rookie contract and likely to get a raise next time. I’m not sure we can keep everyone. Brunson and Quickley definitely have bigger contracts coming, Randle probably does, Grimes probably may, and I-Hart probably does. So if we make a major move, it’s probably going to be this off season. Otherwise, we are going to be running with his team plus maybe a couple of tweak trades and a lot of draft selections.

    To look at Obi’s box score from yesterday and say, “yeah, but he only got 2 rebounds” is an extremely disingenuous argument. There is no reason Strat should have to come on here every day and explain the reasons why his rebound totals are low.

    Everybody doesn’t love Obi. He had 22 points on 8 shots last night. That’s pretty good isn’t it? I’m not criticizing Strat. He consistently defends Obi, rebounding deficiencies and all. I just think Obi is a lot better than he gets credit for.

    if Knicks and Boston lose Knicks will be at Boston on Friday.

    In this case

    A) our two extra games would be at Milwaukee and at Boston, which is about as hard as it gets.

    B) we’ll end up playing 40 home games and 42 away games.

    Doesn’t seem right.

    Query: what’s the good bar near MSG where people gather before a game? Friend’s coming into town, may catch a game.

    Memory says Penn 6?

    Doesn’t seem right.

    Doesn’t seem right at all. It looks like going to the quarter finals of the IST and lose is the worst possible outcome for your strength of schedule. Silver has to review this, or there’ll be teams that will avoid the IST next season.

    There’s a few. Penn 6 is nice, a bit overpriced. Mustang Harry’s is fun, more casual.

    Cyber, we are playing an elimination game on the road as a legitimate underdog. Hugely helpful for our post season-obviously if we win, most probably if we compete, and if a terrible loss questions to be asked sooner. One of the reasons why I think the tournament is a great idea. But the main reason is that I think we have a chance to win it.

    I’ve been in the middle on Obi for a long time. I’ve been calling him a good energy guy off the bench since forever. He wasn’t much more for NY because he couldn’t create off the dribble well, his defense was suspect, some of his 3s were UFOs, and he’s not the best rebounder for the PF position. But he clearly wasn’t being used well in NY. He’s also young enough to continue improving. I’m simply acknowledging that it looks like he’s getting better on top of being used better.

    Thanks, Z-man. I’ve been to Mustang Harry’s plenty of times, but wasn’t sure of the other place y’all been gathering

    Obi’s usage rate is lower than the past 2 seasons in NY and barely above his rookie season. I don’t care how much he supposedly leaks out averaging 3 rebs in 24 mins is still pretty awful for a starting PF.

    He’s having a great year offensively with his efficiency but that’s always been the case and again he’s not upping his usage rate so its not like the increased efficiency is really bolstering his scoring output.

    I would’ve much preferred to have kept Obi and if anything just let him walk in free agency next summer instead of giving him away for a couple of 2nd rd picks but if trading him enabled them to sign DDV then it’s been totally worth it so far.

    As a starter, Obi is far more useful on a team that wants to run and gun and for which defense is secondary. D’Antoni would have loved him. He’s just not a great fit with a snail-paced halfcourt offense like ours. Hali-Obi has similarities to Nash-Amar’e, they are good fits for each other.

    +1 on Penn 6 and Mustang Harry’s. Have had fun at Local NYC too, but it’s better when it’s warm out.

    SSS, but Indy’s TRB% doesn’t change that much with Obi off the court–47% with him on vs 48.8% when he’s off. Interestingly, their DRB% is actually better with him on, their ORB% just craters. All this to say his weak rebounding definitely hurts, but probably less than his painfully low individual rebounding numbers indicate.

    I made a prediction about his season and I’m pretty happy with how it’s aging:

    I think in Indy Obi will average 18+ PTS/36 with a TS% over .600, and despite playing with Haliburton I think his percentage of FGs assisted will actually be a career low because they’ll let him experiment a bit more. I don’t think this will be small sample size theater–I see him getting a bare minimum of 1,500 minutes.

    His percentage of assisted FGs isn’t quite a career low, it’s second to his rookie season. I like how everything else is shaping up.

    Indy got a bargain, but it’s tough to say what we could’ve done better after the original sin of drafting him over Haliburton. Obi is more adaptable than Randle, but there’s no doubt Randle is the better overall player and our team in particular desperately needs his shot creation. I think Thibs should’ve experimented more with Obi/Randle lineups, but those weren’t going to take us anywhere we didn’t go. There was going to be a luxury tax casualty and he probably made more sense than anyone else on the roster.

    Happy for the guy in any event, should get a nice chunk of change. At least we still have Jacob.

    It is impossible to say what Randle will do with his player option. It’s Julius Randle, so he might be coming off a deserving all-NBA season or he might be coming off a season in which he’s arguably the most detrimental player in the NBA.

    My gut says he doesn’t decline it because for reasons we’ve discussed ad nauseam the market for him is almost definitely much more narrow than it is for most two time all-NBA players ostensibly in their prime. Don’t think anyone is making cap clearing moves for the guy.

    A hidden gem of sorts as pubs close to MSG go is Molly Wee on 30th and 8th. Good food, reasonably priced. More of a Rangers bar, but it works…

    Bernie, i probably didn’t make myself clear, i’m not against IST and yeah i think the Knicks have a chance. What i was trying to say is that being the loser in the quarter finals puts you in a bad spot, so i think that a small change to grant you an easy game would be another incentive for teams to fight to be in the quarter finals.

    There should be some sort of playoff-positioning incentive for making the knockout round of the IST…either you automatically win the tiebreaker in the standings over any non-IST team, i.e. it theoretically counts as 1/2 of a win.

    Someone on ESPN mentioned that you could curtail the point differential issue by capping the amount of points you could accumulate in a single game to, say, 15 or 20 points. Not sure if that would work any better…maybe there would be more ties but you can have some other tiebreaker.

    It’s still 2023, which means it’s still the 20th anniversary of How To Lose A Guy In Ten Days, which means Brian’s dream of a Knicks vs Kings finals can still come true.

    I used to go to the Molly Wee long ago, when I was a musician. There was a recording studio near there, and a few rehearsal studios as well. At the time it fit the budget. Glad it’s still there.

    Downtime, that was the place – club and studio. And Euphoria was the rehearsal place.

    Any music online from that time, Rama? I’d be interested to hear it. 😉 And if you want to tell stories about it too, it’d be great. That’s what we’re here for, basketball and the Knicks is just an excuse! 😀

    There should be some sort of playoff-positioning incentive for making the knockout round of the IST…either you automatically win the tiebreaker in the standings over any non-IST team, i.e. it theoretically counts as 1/2 of a win.

    This looks like a very good idea. I hope they keep fine tuning the event, and give some more incentive to fight for the quarter finals.

    Yeah Cyber, even though I love the IST it is far from perfect. I don’t disagree with any of the posts highlighting its flaws, even those that question its existence. If we were a really bad team I would like it a lot less as coming in last in the group would just add insult to injury.

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