Knicks Morning News (2023.10.22)

Windler also has been injured quite a bit. He’s more than worth a roll of the dice.

“I haven’t seen anyone argue for a straight salary dump of RJ. I’m sure there are differences of opinion as to what a fair and/or smart return would look like in a trade, but it would be stupid from an asset management perspective to just dump him, especially considering it wouldn’t even get us that much more flexibility.”

This is more about semantics than anything else. At the end of the day, if you want to trade a 23yo player before his extension even kicks in because you don’t see any upside, the “when” and “how much” stuff is hardly relevant to your perception of the player and his contract. You are essentially saying that you are hoping to dupe an unwitting GM into overpaying for him before he becomes a toxic asset. When you say stuff like “I know if I were a GM I wouldn’t trade anything I might really miss for the guy,” and “what are the odds that in two seasons or so the consensus is that RJ’s contract requires sweetener to move? They’re definitely not terribly long…”, it certainly sounds like you’d rather “dump” him than keep him.

As to Harden, why would Leon want to acquire a player that screams “clown show dumpster fire” after you put so much time into moving the perception of the franchise away from those adjectives?

And as a fan, it would literally make me vomit to have to root for James Harden. Just the thought of it induces massive dread. Same goes for Kyrie. I don’t need a shot at a championship that badly….never will.

Windler is on a regular deal now, not a 2-way.

“We have some serious endowment effect with RJ. If we were trying to trade FOR a player with RJ’s resume we’d be downright pissed off. And rightfully so.”

That’s very fair, JK…so what is the minimum you accept in return for RJ right now? I’ll go on the record and say that I wouldn’t accept anything less than an unprotected first belonging to a rebuilding team, a second, and a solid veteran mid-level role player or promising young prospect who would fill his spot as a rotation wing. In other words, I would ask for more than his prior production would merit because I would happily bet on his upside for another year, and take the risk that he will become more valuable than he is right now, not less.

I think there is a difference between a “distressed” asset and a “toxic” asset. I currently wouldn’t put RJ in the distressed asset category. My guess is, if Thibs thinks he’s good enough to get 2400+ minutes every year despite his BPM, there are lots of folks around the league who see what he sees and would regard RJ positively enough to have no issue with his contract and would consider him a positive asset.

I also think that the benchmark “0.0 or less BPM” is vague in determining whether RJ’s valuation will change. Of qualifing players in 2022-23, some folks with below-zero BPM are considered quite valuable! Here’s a sample:

Jordan Poole -1.9
Keldon Johnson -1.8
Kyle Kuzma -1.7
Jordan Clarkson -1.4
Anfernee Simons -1.1
Franz Wagner -0.1

So are we really saying that if RJ plays statistically like any of these players did last year, he’s going to lose substantial value?

Personally, I don’t think it’s about the number….it’s about RJ’s perceived role in any success the team has. There is no doubt in my mind that his strong performance in last year’s playoffs are a substantial positive in terms of his value. I also think that RJ’s inconsistency might actually work in his favor. A team that he tends to excel against (e.g. CHI, SAS, NOP) might have a different opinion of him. Even CLE and MIA might value him more than other teams just based on how he played against them in the playoffs. Or teams that value Thib as a coach, and subsequently what can be inferred by how he leans on RJ despite the numbers. And his age and draft slot have residual value that won’t disappear unless he is absolutely terrible this year.

And there is, of course, the chance that might actually improve, like, for real!