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52 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.10.17)”
First of all, Happy Birthday Mike K! Thanks for making it all happen here across the years. Closing in on two decades of Knickerblogger fun, quite impressive!
Second, I was thinking last night, are my feelings about IQ going to change after we extend him? It’s going to be interesting. I kind of worry I will feel different about him when he gets paid and goes from being a mostly underappreciated bargain to a recognized talent.
His erratic streaks will start to become much more nerve wracking. He’s one of those guys I wish we could have locked up early at an affordable rate like baseball teams often do.
I echo Owen’s sentiments, Mike!
IQ is really an interesting case. He’s probably our most valuable trade chip when it comes to players who are both really good and somewhat duplicative with others on the roster. I don’t think there’s a whole lot of dropoff from him to Donte, certainly not over $10M AAV’s worth.
Not sure if I missed it, but if not, surprised to see that no one has reacted to the report that Mitch was dangled as bait for Jrue.
More blabbering from Calvin Booth (via realgm.com):
He really should just STFU.
I saw the report on Mitch and didn’t think much of it after seeing the haul the Celtics gave up. If anything, it gave me pause for thought that perhaps they had a subsequent trade brewing to fill the C spot with an injury prone, perennial second round of the play-offs losing, load management needing, slightly overweight, ageing, big.
I like I-Hart, but imo trading Mitch would be a huge error in most cases. The high efficiency of our offense last year was partly due to Mitch’s elite offensive rebounding giving us extra possessions and high efficiency put backs and when you have Brunson, RJ, and Randle in other starting slots, he’s also cleaning up a lot of the mess on defense to make it at least respectable. I think Mitch is pretty critical to the success of this team as constructed because of the fit/needs. What we need is better spacing (shooting) and perhaps some more playmaking on offense and an upgrade at D in RJ’s slot if he can’t do it.
Back in 2022 when some were up in arms over the possibility that Leon was going to lose Mitch for nothing (but cap space), I was of the opinion that replacing Mitch was not a terribly hard thing to to, and alluded to Walker Kessler being available in the draft in a modest trade-down situation. And although Mitch is still better than Kessler, I believe that’s an example of getting 80% of Mitch at 20% of the cost. As it turned out, Mitch signed a very team-friendly descending deal, significantly lower than what some projected he could have gotten from Detroit, so the panic was overblown. And in the long run, I think Kessler will be the better player…if he isn’t already. And there will usually be a guy like that available outside the lottery.
I continue to believe that Mitch should be viewed as a trade chip, but that he should be valued as equivalent to a couple of unprotected firsts belonging to a winning team (i.e. most likely to convey outside the lottery.) It seems like the offer in return for Jrue valued him that way, and was rightly rejected by the Blazers, who got a better deal (imo) from the Celts. But trading Mitch for a stud at a less fungible position, and risking replacing him with a less awesome offensive rebounder and rim protector who can hit a FT and shoot from beyond 3 feet (like iHart) would be a sound move.
Happy birthday, Mike K! 🎂🥳
I never understood why you’re letting Mitch walk in that scenario just to draft a replacement and risk it not working out?
Just keep Mitch and draft somebody else or keep both of them if you insist on drafting Kessler. Being able to *maybe* replace Mitch doesn’t mean you let him walk for nothing.
Use the opportunity to get 2 good players instead of 1.
I love Mitch and I am very glad we kept him.
I liked Kessler in the draft, his college numbers were amazing, and I also don’t understand why we couldn’t have both. Seems like a great problem to have.
Don’t know about how Kessler’s defense rates beyond the box score but he is a textbook case of college numbers translating to the NBA.
Random factoid related to Grimes and why he starts. No clue how this is determined, but I like it nonetheless.
The top 10 Point Of Attack defenders in Ball Screen Navigation last season
1. McDaniels
2. Melton
3. Grimes
4. Brooks
5. Dort
6. Caruso
7. Dosunmu
8. Jevon Carter
9. Jrue Holiday
10. Davion Mitchell
🗃️2023 regular season / 1000 minute min
Rosas figured Mitch value was 2 first round picks after he demolished an all star center + the 3rd overal pick of the 2021 draft but for some reason Mitch still doesn’t get any respect around the league. Fliping his return of 2 picks + 1 of our pretected + Evian for Jrue was a very smart thing to try to pull off. Then make Morey an offer that he can not refuse. Whatever that is. Embiid, Randle and Brunson would just take turns cooking in the paint daring for doubles to come.
It didn’t work so you just move on…no biggie.
There is something funny about a list of Point of Attack defenders with Brooks on it.
Just to recap, “letting Mitch walk” is a mischaracterization. In 2021, Mitch played 31 games and was recovering from a serious foot injury that required surgery (March 30, 2021). The only opportunity to not “let Mitch walk” was prior to the 2021-22 season. Some felt that it was worth the considerable risk to sign Mitch to a guaranteed long-term deal right then without any evidence that he could get through a season without missing a ton of games due to injury, especially a recurrence of that post-surgical foot injury. IMO, Leon wisely deferred to an equally risky situation of letting Mitch become a UFA at the end of the season. Once that decision was made, the ball was totally in Mitch’s court, and the speculation here at KB was that a) he was not really invested in the NYK, and b) he would get a better offer somewhere else. And as it turned out, that gamble paid off in spades for Leon. Mitch not only chose to stay, he signed an incredibly team friendly contract! And for less that his stans wanted to pay him prior to the season! I also recall some were upset that in light of his imminent departure, he should have been traded at the deadline because there were “multiple offers” for him…although who knows what those offers were. Again, the FO took a risk in not dumping him for whatever, and it paid off.
So the hand-wringing was not about anything that was going to happen after the season started and Mitch showed that he could stay on the court with starter’s minutes. My point has always been that even in the worst case scenario (Mitch choosing to reject any offer by Leon and leaving the Knicks for nothing) a forward-thinking FO could find an reasonable alternative, either a FA like iHart, or a draft pick like Kessler, etc.
In any case, that was an incredibly well-played hand by Leon. He took a calculated risk and it paid off. And he made Mitch’s KB fan club happy in the process! But the worst-case scenario was really not all that bad.
Facts! – But also, he signed i-Hart a week earlier for half price and then offered Mitch peanuts which he was happy to accept after being worried that he was about to be replaced. When Mitch got the news of Rose’s offer, – he jumped for joy, went for a swim and didn’t even think to negotiate.
Mitch is getting paid ~ 10% of the salary cap now and is making only $12M in 2025-26.
Rose played a perfect hand.
Jrue for Mitch made no sense to me.
Jrue would add the desired extra playmaking, better spacing, better perimeter defense, and extra PG play we need (as long as it’s RJ that goes to the bench). However, that’s not enough to make us serious contenders. And because of his age, the widow to get another piece and get the job done would be very short.
Mitch has his limitations, but I think he’s more valuable on this specific team than it looks. When he was out last year, there was a very noticeable drop on defense. That wasn’t just because I-Hart wasn’t good. I don’t think we could just plug in another high efficiency low usage C that looks similar on models and get the same results.
They’re pretty much — no, they’re exactly — what I said about it being a lot easier to get to the mezzanine than to take the next step.
They’re two completely different journeys. One has a major margin for error, one doesn’t.
I mean, we had Mitch’s bird rights, so we could outbid anyone and nobody had cap space anyway. It’s one of the reasons we got Hartenstein on a good contract after he looked great on the Clippers.
We didn’t extend Mitch early because Mitch’s cap hold was ~$700k more than Kessler’s last year. Technically, you’re right, that is 80% of Mitch’s hold but it’s not like we could do anything with it. We’d have a bit of extra flexibility this year but that’s pretty much it. We would’ve had room to use the biannual and could’ve taken a bit more back in salary I guess.
If people thought we should extend Mitch early and sacrifice his low cap hold, well that also wasn’t a great idea.
It’s scary that Dort is that strong and that good at navigating screens
PS If anyone is interested in attending the Wednesday game vs. Wiz (great seats!) lmk at zmankb19@gmail.com. The price for 2 tix is two Goose Island IPAs or the equivalent.
Happy Brithday Mike K!
And thank you for keeping this asylum running! 🙂
I thought that interview with Booth was a brilliant look at proper team building. He’s not necessarily looking for the statistically best available player to plug in. He’s looking for players that fill gaps. He doesn’t want overlap.
He’s asking
“What do we have too much of and can afford to move?”
“What are our weaknesses and who is the guy that fills them?”
We need better perimeter defense, better spacing, a little more length at wing, maybe some more playmaking, and a backup PF.
We have a surplus of SG/SFs and guys that need space to attack the rim.
Answer = Trade part of that surplus and picks for OG
It looks like that’s never going to happen given what’s going on with Toronto, but imo that’s the correct thought process.
We need to address weaknesses and not just plug in a “star” player that that adds one thing but makes us even weaker somewhere else.
All people were really saying was that it would’ve been really stupid to let Mitch walk for nothing. Him being mentioned in a trade for Jrue Holiday sure seems to vindicate that, not to mention, you know, his stellar play in the best season (IMO) we’ve had since I was 5.
I am glad that did not happen!
I had to send Mike my extremely personalized birthday greeting over on the Discord.
Interesting comment by Gilbert “Hibachi” Arenas who said he considers 5 level of scoring instead of the classic 3 when he judges offensive players: layups, midrange, three pointers, post-up and iso.
I think what he’s saying is true on one level, but he’s not giving enough consideration to the efficiency of what the player can do.
Sure, Melo could score in almost every way imaginable at a solid enough or high level, but I’d take Durant over him all day every day and it’s not even close. Durant does more than enough well at a super elite level and that swamps not being able to post up.
Well, KPJr. was finally traded to OKC along with two 2nds for Oladipo and Robinson-Earl. That’s not a bad return for either club, not that OKC needs more picks. Obviously they cut KPJr. right away.
“All people were really saying was that it would’ve been really stupid to let Mitch walk for nothing. Him being mentioned in a trade for Jrue Holiday sure seems to vindicate that, not to mention, you know, his stellar play in the best season (IMO) we’ve had since I was 5.
I am glad that did not happen!”
No one actually wanted it to happen, and every single poster here would have been disappointed at that outcome. The issue is whether it would have been “really stupid”. I think that take totally ignores the entire decision-making context, and assumes that it was simple yes or no calculation.
You are essentially saying in hindsight that it was “really stupid” to not make Mitch an offer he absolutely would have signed prior to the season (even though we have no idea what that offer was, if it existed at all) even though he was coming off surgery for a problem that has doomed many players before him.
Or that it is “really stupid” to not take “whatever” back for him at the deadline rather than take the calculated risk of losing him for absolutely nothing. Frankly, dumping him for a pittance rather than risking losing him in free agency would have been “really stupid.” Aren’t you delighted that Leon was not THAT stupid?
I mean, it is kind of a cheap shot to judge decisions involving substantial (but not lopsided) risk in that way, i.e. to mitigate the risk of locking up a player with a serious foot injury on a 4-year guaranteed deal, especially at what you yourself referred to as the NBAs most fungible position.
Presently, it would really suck to lose IQ for nothing. But until we know what he would accept, it’s hard to judge how “stupid” it would be. If his team thinks he’s worth 4 guaranteed years at $32M AAV and won’t sign for anything less than that before testing restricted free agency, is that a dealbreaker? If signing him to a long-term deal makes him a poison pill that ups the cost of a trade for a superstar at the deadline, then what? Personally, I can’t judge the intelligence behind a specific thought process unless I have complete information. That applies to the Mitch scenario.
OTOH, we can fully conclude that the thought process that led to Cuban losing Brunson for nothing was “really stupid” because we have specifics about what was offered or not offered and what would have been accepted or not accepted.
@strat,
I’d take KD over Melo 100%,
KD’s a great iso player and he can post-up too, he just doesn’t need to do it.
I found the comment interesting in general and try to apply it to current Knicks players.
JB for instance is a 4.5 level player (his strenght and footwork allows him to post-up lighter players) while I think that RJ would be a better player if he’d learn to post smaller defenders.
It would also be really stupid to lose IQ for nothing
Well, he is handy against a ball screen
Arenas is either trolling or, like many athletes, doesn’t understand the game nearly as much as an analyst as he did as a player. Durant is the better scorer by every possible measure. That Melo posted up more doesn’t matter when Durant was much more efficient at an even higher volume. One is an inner circle Hall of Famer, the other is a guy who will be in the Hall of Fame, but who might not make the cut if the NBA were to do another top 75 of all time list a few years from now.
“It would also be really stupid to lose IQ for nothing”
So propose an alternative that you are certain would work….and then we can all judge how less stupid that is than losing him for nothing.
Here’s some discussion starters:
-Trading him right now for the best draft capital offer, all the way down to a single top-55 protected second.
-offering him whatever he would accept right now, all the way up to a max extension
-packaging him with picks for James Harden
Otherwise, like with Mitch, your point boils down to “I dunno what I would do, but I sure wouldn’t lose him for nothing!”
If there’s one ex-player who shouldn’t be taken seriously about anything, it’s Gilbert Arenas.
We are not losing IQ for nothing. There is no universe in which that occurs. Here are various things that could happen:
1. We extend him before the deadline, whether to keep him as a long-term piece or to trade him next summer;
2. We don’t extend him and trade him during this season (because we can’t easily trade him this season if he’s extended, due to the poison pill rule);
3. We don’t extend him, and we don’t trade him this season, but sign him to a new deal next summer when he’s an RFA;
or
4. We don’t extend him, and we don’t trade him this season, but execute a sign-and-trade with another team when he’s an RFA next summer.
The world where someone signs him away from us with a ridiculous offer sheet seems incredibly unlikely. Ditto IQ taking the qualifying offer and leaving as a UFA two summers from now. Either Quickley will stay on this team, or we’ll trade him for some level of value.
I think people have some sort of post-Lin trauma they can get past. Generally you don’t worry about RFAs because you can keep them if you want to. In an era where teams with cap space are few, that’s even more true.
it’s probably best to have him goto rfa… there’s enough flukishness in his production last year to not want to pay him at the peak of his value…. you’re not really getting a discount in waiting anyway given the numbers being talked about…. if the idea is to pay market rate you can get that in rfa….
that’s probably what we should’ve done with RJ altho with the timing on the cba i kind of give a pass on that…. with cap growth and the rules and basically the entire roster in place for the foreseeable future there shouldn’t be any urgency in locking up a bench player….
“The world where someone signs him away from us with a ridiculous offer sheet seems incredibly unlikely.”
Agreed. But in the highly unlikely event that it DID happen, it would be because of one of two things:
1) IQ was not made an acceptable offer before testing RFA market because:
a) the sides were too far apart on a number, or
b) the Knicks did not want to lessen his trade value between now and the trade deadline via the poison pill provision because they believe a trade for a star before then is possible enough to justify the RFA risk
2) IQ’s camp actually prefers the RFA route because they believe he is primed for a breakout season and will command a much better extension after the season than he does right now.
More importantly, both players/agents and management weigh the risk-reward calculation carefully when making decisions. Dallas got overly cute in dealing with Brunson. Nerlens got overly cute when dealing with Dallas. The Knicks-Mitch scenario was a win-win, even though both player/agent and management took calculated risks, which could have backfired in either (or both) directions.
I have free throws on my personal levels of scoring
I just totally at random came across two pieces of information about iHart from last season that I found surprising, almost confounding:
1. He played in all 82 games. With so few players doing that anymore these days, I’m surprised that we didn’t seem to make a bigger deal of it. (Maybe we did, and maybe I missed it.)
2. He only averaged 5.0 points per game. Didn’t it seem like he did more than that?
More importantly, both players/agents and management weigh the risk-reward calculation carefully when making decisions
This is precisely where I trust, Leon, a former agent, to read the situation correctly. And his track record supports his decisions.
Doogie, those are somewhat confounding. I’d heard before that iHart had played all 82; it’s not like he plays heavy minutes, but given that he moves around a bit like a floppy fish, I would have thought he’d tweak something just spinning to go downcourt. The ppg is only a trifle down from his career (5.0), although down from 8.3 each of the previous two years (when his minutes were closer to what they were last year). Presumably that’s just the way we use him, which I think most everyone agrees has not been optimal. What I like is he upped his rpg by almost one-and-a-half from his career average. I still think his partner is much more confounding.
Yeah, I was pretty disappointed in Hartenstein’s offense last year. We rarely saw him flex his passing skills, his career pts/36 was over 15 and last season he was under 10, and his career .637 TS% was replaced with a .567 TS%.
He had played 2200 minutes prior to this year, so it’s not that small of a sample.
Hopefully we see more of Clippers Hartenstein who was a monster on both sides of the ball.
How many of you in NYC area have joined this challenge?
https://www.nba.com/knicks/new-york-hoops
Re: I-Hart,
He can’t do what he does in this iso heavy offense and PnR with shoot first ask questions last chuckers like IQ and Brunson. He’s job on offense last year was to set screens and rebound.
Barely got any touches in spots where he could assist or attack the rim. Like Mitch says, “got some good cardio in tonight”
I’m just back from Olimpia Milano Euroleague home opener,
where the fans in my section did look at me like I was crazy because I was the only italian to applaud an opponents’ player during the intro… our old friend Iggy Brazdeikis!
It’s really hard to shine on offense in EL and this was an ugly, very low scoring game which Iggy did joyfully contribute (2-9 FG).
Any thoughts on the Post’s Story on Kevin Porter jr?
https://nypost.com/2023/10/17/rockets-guard-kevin-porter-jr-s-girlfriend-denies-he-strangled-punched-her-in-nyc-hotel/
Apparently the fracture was due to a congenital issue and she is saying he didn’t hit her with a closed fist. She doesn’t seem to say he didn’t choke or slap her though… Also this is the Post. Not exactly sure what to make of it.
The reason it’s so stupid to let good players walk for nothing is because there’s almost always a market for good players, even if they’re overpaid in some sense.
Good NBA players are just too scarce of a commodity for most contenders to look at them and say “well I’d like [X good player], but he’s paid too much.” This is why D’Angelo Russell keeps getting traded for value on contracts people think suck.
So yeah, whether it’s Mitch or Quickley, I’d much sooner “overpay” to keep a good player than lose him for nothing. It would’ve been very stupid to lose Mitch for nothing for this reason—he’s clearly sought after by other teams, and color me skeptical that would change even if he made $20M AAV.
Weird story. “I have a congenital defect, that’s why my neck is broken” sounds like the worst excuse ever, blowing “I fell down the stairs” out of the water. But I guess she did. The congenital defect doesn’t seem to explain the blood or bruising.
It’s possible she doesn’t want to be seen as a victim of abuse, which is a common reaction, especially with the publicity the case is getting. I guess we’ll see what happens next.
I don’t believe much of that story, not so much because its coming from the NY Post, but because there is a lot of money involved and people can change their stories for big payoffs.
“The reason it’s so stupid to let good players walk for nothing is because there’s almost always a market for good players, even if they’re overpaid in some sense.”
Right. There is such a thriving market for Evan Fournier. As there was for Alec Burks.
“It would’ve been very stupid to lose Mitch for nothing for this reason—he’s clearly sought after by other teams, and color me skeptical that would change even if he made $20M AAV.”
This is also silly. Mitch at $20M AAV on a 4-year guaranteed deal is not a plus asset. Sure, you can include him in a trade, but so what? As it turned out, you saved $20M in cap space, and even better if you look at the terms of his contract…you saved $7M in cap space in the final year, and because you took the risk of losing him, as it turns out, he has immensely more value than he did.
So risking losing him was incredibly smart. When you do that, of course, there’s a chance you will lose him! Seems like you clearly wouldn’t have done that, and as such, would have restricted the team’s cap space out of fear of doing something “stupid.” It’s almost Steve Mills-level thinking. Just pay guys what they want, because if you don’t you might lose him for nothing!”