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24 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.08.19)”
I’m buying RJ stock this season, and I’m doing it largely because the anti-RJ arguments have peaked.
“Brian Cronin says:
August 19, 2023 at 05:38
“I’m going to try to play now like Good Player X” is really right up there with “He’s in the best shape of his career!” in terms of nice things to say that probably mean nothing.”
Tru dat. And summer videos of guys like Mitch and previously Tyson Chandler making long jumpers, taking guys off the dribble…
But that said, Drew Hanlen is a highly regarded trainer who has had success training the likes of Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Zach LaVine, Bradley Beal, etc. He has also trained duds like Kelly Oubre Jr., Justin Jackson, and Mo Bamba, but I digress…
The point is, he gave a pretty detailed account of what he has recently been working on with RJ, and I don’t recall any mention of Jimmy Butler, so we don’t really have to go there.
Hey Alan, back at the bottom of the Aug 17 thread I left you a note thinking that was yesterday’s thread (a bit of temporal displacement, apropos given the subject). Thanks EB for proving I hadn’t killed KB, but if you want to go back and glance at it, let me know. The only part I’ll repeat here is that I hope you’re feeling better…
There seems to be three distinct camps on RJ:
Camp He Is What He Is: He has sucked and will most likely continue to suck, maybe somewhat less but not much. He has to many physical limitations to overcome…he’s slow, predictible, and erratic. The team would be better off dumping him now while he still has some of that new car smell, before another shitty year makes him an albatross for the rest of his deal. Since he has been so detrimental to winning, you can easily find better players than him to take his minutes and improve the team.
Camp He’s Only Just Turned 23: He has indeed sucked, but his prior 4 years of data are not conclusive at all because he is still a kid and hasn’t played an NBA minute beyond age 22. Members of this camp see lots of good stretches and believe that the answer is more about consistency than anything else. Z-man is entering his fifth year of residency in this camp, and is cautiously optimistic based on RJ’s playoff performance, but believes that if he doesn’t become more consistent this year he will lose more and more minutes to Josh Hart, especially down the stretch of games. No matter what, his contract was a fair gamble and he should retain enough value to move even if he only improves modestly. Some in this camp (like Z-man) believe that Thibs sees stuff in the game film that most casual observers miss, especially on D, and that he contributes more to winning than his stats would suggest.
Camp He’s On His Way To Stardom: RJ has commanded high usage because he can do things that other young players (e.g. IQ, Grimes) can’t and therefore must have a much higher ceiling, it’s only a matter of time before he puts it all together and the efficiency numbers catch up to the usage. Trading him now would be really dumb. You can count the members of this camp on one hand and have fingers left over.
What would be some good over-under numbers for RJ?
MPG: 32.5?
PPG: 20.0?
RPG: 5.5?
APG: 3.0?
SPG: 0.7?
TS%: .540?
3PT%: 33.5%?
2PT%: 50.0%?
FT%: 75%?
FTA/G: 5.5?
3PA/G: 5.5?
BPM: 0.0? (thanks JK!)
Raven, I really liked Russian Doll season 2. It’s a whole lot messier than the first, but I appreciate the big swings, and I always love watching Lyonne as this character. (And also as Charlie on Poker Face.)
yes raven and al – your TV elitism is all well and good, but just how sad is it that this season of skinwalker ranch has now come to completion…
alone just ended too…I feel so empty now…
I guess the good news is – I’m pretty certain they’re gonna find the treasure in the next season of oak island…
who needs and actors and screenwriters anyways, huh?
I wouldn’t dump RJ for nothing. That just makes no sense given our current position vis-a-vis the cap. It doesn’t help us do much. I’d rather hope another team overvalues him, or hope against hope he becomes productive for us. I don’t know what “camp” that puts me in. I guess I just don’t view him any differentially than I do any other player who has been mostly bad through his first four seasons–I’m not inclined to think such players are about to turn a corner.
In others news, from Goodwill…
Sounds like it’s basically us and Miami monitoring, and if they eventually trade for Dame they won’t have the assets.
Finish the job, Leon.
Some research on the B2Bs:
#1 10/27 @ATL, 10/28 @NOP: 3rd game in 4 nights for us, with travel for all, while NOP coming off 2 days rest at home. That sucks for us.
#2 10/31 @CLE, 11/1 vs. CLE: even I guess, maybe better to have game 2 at home! CLE also coming off a B2B, but they didn’t travel. NYK will have had 5 games in 8 nights and 2 B2Bs, all with travel in between. Then travel to MIL making it 6 games in 10 nights, all with travel. Yikes!
#3 11/12 vs CHA, 11/13 @BOS: coming off 3 days rest, so should be okay, but BOS rested and at home.
#4 11/17 @WAS, 11/18 @CHA: short flight and weak team, but still. At least CHA is second game of a tough home B2B (11/17 vs. MIL).
#5 11/30 vs DET, 12/1 @TOR: short trip but TOR at home and rested.
#6 12/15 @PHX, 12/16 @LAC: Both opponents home and rested. This sucks.
#7: 12/29 @ORL, 12/30 @ IND: Again, both opponents rested and at home.
#8: 1/5 @PHI, 1/6 @WAS: At least WAS is coming back from CLE on a travel B2B, so with the short trip this should be manageable. Still the 8th consecutive B2B involving travel between games.
#9 1/17 vs HOU, 1/18 vs WAS: FINALLY a home B2B, but WAS with 2 days rest.
#10 1/29 @CHA, 1/30 vs UTA: UTA on second game a road B2B, but @BKN, so really no travel for them.
#11 2/26 @DET, 2/27 vs NOP: Pelicans rested, we’re not.
#12 4/4 vs SAC, 4/5 @CHI: Another shitty deal. CHI is home and well rested.
#13: 4/11 @BOS, 4/12 vs BKN: Brooklyn rested, we’re not.
Both the number of B2Bs and the nature of the travel (12 of 13 involve travel between games) and rest vs the opponents we are playing is lopsided against us. Fuck the NBA schedulng bot!
“I’d rather hope another team overvalues him, or hope against hope he becomes productive for us.”
When you use expressions like “hope a team overvalues him” (i.e. hope Leon pulls an Andrea Bargnani on someone) and “hope against hope” that he becomes productive for us (the definition of that idiom is hoping for an essentially hopeless outcome), you are squarely in Camp #1. Which is fine! Just stop equivocating and own it! It’s definitely the safest camp to be in! As the old expression goes, he who expects nothing is never disappointed!
I mean, you explicitly said a feature of being in “Camp 1” is wanting to “dump” him. I think that would be a bad idea. We should try to get value for him, either via his own production or via trade.
“I mean, you explicitly said a feature of being in “Camp 1” is wanting to “dump” him. I think that would be a bad idea. We should try to get value for him, either via his own production or via trade.”
This is the essence of equivocation. I specifically said “The team would be better off dumping him now while he still has some of that new car smell…” which implies getting something back of value from a team that, in your words, overvalues him based mainly on his young age. Even his most fervent detractors on this board have not suggested getting rid of him for nothing or with assets attached, so Camp #1 would not exist under that narrow constraint.
Tell you what, propose the minimum you would accept in return for RJ right now.
zman idk that the cautiously optimistic proclaimer of he needs to be more consistent but maybe he won’t should be hurling equivocator around the house with deductibles are as they are these days. what’s the best asset you’d refuse to trade rj for, ignoring the cap.
i would trade rj for trey murphy, who is lower on partnow’s magic list. i wouldn’t trade him for deandre hunter, who is higher.
Typically, when someone or something is “dumped,” value is not received in return for the dumped person or thing.
I’d trade RJ for a similarly salaried player with a theoretically lower ceiling. I’ll thus go with Max Strus as my minimum return.
I’ve resigned myself to thinking we should hold RJ unless there’s a star trade or a significant upgrade (OG type players), otherwise RJ breaking out is probably our best shot at a title.
I would also trade him for Trey Murphy, but Im pretty high on Trey Murphy.
The other factor to consider is that I’m not sure Max Strus is better than our any of our current SGs/wings. Or if he is it’s marginal.
“what’s the best asset you’d refuse to trade rj for, ignoring the cap.
i would trade rj for trey murphy, who is lower on partnow’s magic list. i wouldn’t trade him for deandre hunter, who is higher.”
First, I don’t think you can ever ignore the cap. For example, I wouldn’t have traded Obi for the garbage we got in return ignoring the cap, but in consideration of cap maneuverability it was fine. Also, RJ, Trey and De’Andre are all 5A and Partnow specifically states that “players are not ranked within sub-tiers” so he values them essentially equally.
That said, I wouldn’t trade RJ for any of Hunter (almost 3 years older, BPM even worse than RJ for both last year and career, injured all the time) or Strus (4 years older, smaller, overrated offensively, poor defensively) unless an unprotected future first rounder was included. If straight up, I think ATL and CLE would jump at that deal.
On the surface, Trey Murphy is a fine return in a straight-up swap. His low usage bothers me a bit, but I would do it mainly due to the salary difference. I’d have to do a lot more research to be sure, though. And if Murphy was signed to the same contract as RJ, I would definitely say no. If NOP asked for an additional asset to make up for the salary difference I would be tempted but would probably still say no.
My preferred approach is to build up RJ’s value, i.e to establish a significantly higher floor for him, and hold off on trading him until a disgruntled star becomes available. I am bullish on Playoff RJ being the floor for the real RJ, and that he will actually keep improving from that level for the next couple of years. I’d like to see how he benefits from another year of Brunson and Hart before risking selling low on him. In other words, I think that the risk of regretting trading him for what he would command right now is greater than the risk of regretting not trading him at that price…unless it’s part of a package for an all-star type.
“Typically, when someone or something is “dumped,” value is not received in return for the dumped person or thing.”
Not necessarily, especially in light of the way I qualified it. I trust you can see past the semantics and understand what the intended meaning was. For example, if you traded him for Max Strus straight up, that would be equivalent to “dumping” him as it was intended. The Hawks “dumped” Cam Reddish but got a protected first for him.
By the way, I think RJ’s trade stock has increased considerably since game 2 of the CLE series and continues to rise with every good performance in FIBA.
If Embiid wants out there are going to be a lot more than two teams monitoring
If RJ ever were to make a leap it would likely be this season. I put the chances of it happening at 10% but I’m serious that I now expect that 10% to land simply bc y’all have written off the possibility of it. For statistical support, I present the fact that 100% of players who are deemed to have the worst contract in the NBA by Noble before their extension kicked in have made a leap in the first year of said contract. And since I’m now in RJ-will-make-a-leap camp, having already pitched a tent in Brunson-will-be-even-better camp, I suppose that puts me in the uncomfortable position of having to betray my prior self and start believing in the potential for 52 wins or more. Awkward.
Z-man, you don’t seem to have camp he’s useful and will get more useful but is unlikely to be a big star.
Knicks-Cavs Game 1 on NBATV right now…
It was mentioned by strat, who confirms all media reports with his own direct sources, so I went there. Was that wrong?
I am with KFINJ.
I think RJ will improve from here but won’t be a star. I expect him to level out as an average offensive player with a high usage with defensive shortcomings. He won’t be a disaster but will still be a market value or worse asset.
I would take Murphy over him in a second.