Knicks Morning News (2023.08.07)

During these dog days of the offseason I perused some threads from last summer and found them to be very “entertaining” to say the least. It now appears that the range of opinions on most everything from the FO to coaching to players has a) inched towards the upbeat side of neutral and b) narrowed the range of opinions save for a couple of outliers. Still a smattering of lightning rod issues: will RJ make a leap, will the logjam at the 2 and lack of depth at the 4 create problems, will there will be a consolidation trade for a star, how will our relatively stable rotation measure up against the new-look rosters in the EC?

I’m guessing that barring any significant developments, the conversation will be pretty low-key until the season starts. Seems that the recent circling back to past grievances is symptomatic of that.

At least we have the World Cup stuff to look forward to…we can at least dream about what it would be like to have Mikal on the team!

Since things are slow, I am rehashing a particular post I made 11 months ago in the context of discussing the merits and pitfalls of the draft-based rebuild vs. the so-called hybrid method. The bolded comments are my current reflections.

A lot of folks are going to praise Danny Ainge for what he has done thus far with the Jazz, but it isn’t every day that a guy can walk into a situation where there is a multiple DPOY in his prime and a young all-star just entering his prime, both under contract, on a team that is a lock to make the playoffs for the next few seasons and that has some draft capital to work with, that you have permission to swap out for draft capital and go full tank mode. I can’t think of another example of that happening to this degree.

The closest the Knicks have come to that in forever is KP, who was coming off of an ACL tear and demanded out. Had they gone full rebuild, the only draft capital they could have acquired would have come from renting out cap space.

In other words, it’s easier to accelerate a down-to-the-studs rebuild when you have multiple stars to trade. But still, the most valuable assets Dany has rignt now are his own picks.

In that sense, I agree that “tanking” is the most controllable way to acquire stars…far from certain in a short timeline, but eventually it works.

But as many teams have shown, it’s not the only way, and still requires competent decision-making in all phases of team-building. Drafting stars does not automatically equal building a contender.

Minny drafted KAT 7 seasons ago AND acquired Jimmy Butler as a second star. They have 2 first round exits to show for it.

Didn’t work out as planned, jury still out.

In the past 15 years, the Pelicans drafted CP3, AD, and Zion. They STILL have yet to get past the second round (2 appearance in 21 years)

Still waiting on Zion, whatever.

The Suns missed the playoffs for 10 straight years despite having multiple picks in the high lottery. Their best players were two late lottery picks and a well past his prime superstar PG. Most of their high lottery picks were busts.

Sort of now or never for them, it will be interesting to see how they fare with a Booker-Durant-Beal core and how BKN does with the bountiful fruits of the Durant trade.

The Kings have made tanking an art form (haven’t hit the 40 game mark since 2005-06 and since then have finished with under 30 wins 8 times) and haven’t made the playoffs in 16 years and counting.

Sabonis is one of the most 1-way bigs in the NBA, not Kanter-level but definitely an issue. That Hali trade…who won it? Otherwise they have a promising core but don’t see a path to the finals anytime soon.

Since 2011 the Magic have not gotten out of the first round and have had several high lottery picks.

Will this be the year it starts to pay off? I wouldn’t bet on it…would still way rather be us than them.

The Pistons have not gotten out of the first round since 2008 and have missed the playoffs in 11 out of the past 13 seasons.

Still projected to be the among the worst teams in the NBA next year. Again, would way rather be us than them.

Sam Presti, one of the most successful GMs in the NBA in terms of draft acumen, acquired 3 HOFers via the draft in a short time and has still yet to hang a banner. His team had 4 straight first round exits before he fully embraced the tank, and even with all of his picks, his team looks at least 3 years away, which would amount to 5 years of abject tanking. That would be an impossibility in NYC.

Sam Presti is the consummate tank-style rebuilder, and I’d switch rosters with theirs in a heartbeat. Even so, that kind of patience wouldn’t fly under Dolan. But they are going to make a major leap sooner than later.

Let’s see how long it is before the Rockets make any noise in the WC.

Don’t hold your breath.

Same with the Spurs, who are embracing the tank as we speak.

…and it paid off big time, but there is still a lot of roster building to do and who knows whether Wemby will hold up physically. I doubt Pop will be coach when they make their next trip to the conference finals.

In 2005, CLE drafted the modern GOAT with the #1 pick. It resulted in one finals ass-kicking. If LeBron didn’t decide on a homecoming as a free agent, they would still be on one finals loss. and possibly a 12 year playoff drought. Like Minny, they have gone all in on a core 4, sacrificing nearly all of their cap space and future draft capital. Lets see how it works out.

CLE was used as an example of what Leon could have done if he only had embraced the draft-based tank/rebuild strategy. Last year it looked like a no-brainer win for the Cavs. Now, after the way we demolished them in the playoffs, not nearly as much, especially with Spida not locked up long term and rumors of him opting out in 2025 and going “elsewhere .” Most still give them the nod over us, but my feeling is that any edge is not less to the method chosen and more to the execution of it. For example, replace Obi with Hali and we are clearly the better positioned team. Alas…