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42 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.07.26)”
Mikal Bridges wasn’t better than IQ 5 months ago?
SGA coming off his impressive age 20 season with three years left on his rookie deal was worth less than 24 year old Immanuel Quickley who is about to get paid?
These arguments are silly.
Same.
I do think a Giannis trade could happen next year, though, for three reasons:
1. Daryl Morey is not involved.
2. Giannis will be entering the final year of his contract.
3. The Bucks pick that we own would be worth exponentially more than in any other trade.
If only we had some sort of number like things to try and determine who was better… then maybe you could look at them rather than just saying crap
You seem like the kind of chap that knows just enough about stats to be condescending but not enough about stats to be correct.
I’ll cut you off at the head: comparing the BPM of 20 year old SGA to 24 year old IQ isn’t going to determine who was a more valuable trade asset.
Random..but I just thought about something..
The Sixers are just as bad about picking the wrong players as the Knicks, but no one points it out. Granted- some of it was just bad luck, but still:
Harris over Butler
Traded for Harden over Heild and Hali
Simmons went before BI and Jaylen Brown(that was just horrible luck how it turned out)
Fultz over Tatum and Ntilikina (LMAO)
I don’t know what’s more egregious- signing Harris over Butler or seeing the state of Harden as he pouted his way out of Brooklyn and Houston before that and not trading for more reliable and probably better fitting pieces. Of course the Harden thing looks terrible in retrospect considering they now will likely trade him for pennies on the dollar.
Ok..maybe it’s a slight stretch to say they have been as bad as the Knicks with personnel..but they’ve been pretty bad for a team that had several top 3 lottery picks in the time that the Knicks haven’t had that kind of “luck” in the lottery
We’re not talking about a 19yo college prospect here. Donte has been in the NBA for 5 years and is 26 years old. He is a career 36.2% 3pt shooter. He is also a career 77.7% FT shooter. I’d wait a bit before I put him in the zone-breaker category.
“And you don’t need great 3pt shooting, you just need to break a zone.”
I wish it were that simple. It isn’t. Trading off 2’s for 3’s is generally a losing strategy in today’s NBA.
“If only there were some evidence that Donte could start on a championship team, something like having already started on a championship team”
Agreed, I wish there was some. Donte was hurt in game 3 of the playoffs that year and never played another minute in that championship run. BTW in those 3 games he had a .250 TS%. He never started for the Bucks again. (correction: he started 1 game the next year and went 0-5.)
“Denver’s bench was Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Christian Braun. Two of those guys suck and one of them was forced to play PG.”
Are we really comparing Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and Christian Braun to Deuce McBride, Isaiah Roby and [insert vet’s minimum scrub]? Brown just signed a $20+M contract. In a 2022 redraft, Braun might go in the top 5.
And you could get away with Denver’s relatively bench because they have a top-10 of all time C playing 40+ mpg throughout the playoffs, plus an incredibly well rounded starting lineup that has 5 legit NBA starters. Does that sound like Joel Embiid and the Knicks starting lineup?
As it just so happens, I never said that. I said that IQ was a better player than any of the listed guys at the time they were traded. Or if you want to be pedantic, he put up better numbers. At the time of the trade there was still a large measure of uncertainty over how good SGA would eventually be. With IQ, we already know he’s very good and that’s meaningful in a trade.
The other part of the argument, which you glossed over, is that the Knicks can offer more draft picks than those deals. It’s the draft picks, not the players (but you’re also ignoring the other players who all have value).
I’ll give you the same advice I gave Hubert, maybe look at the stats rather than rely on reputation
Saying the Bucks won a championship with the guy who the coach thought was worse than him isn’t the best argument
“The hybrid strategy by contrast is wholly dedicated to one way of team-building: field a ”mezzanine” team until you find that 1A guy that brings you over the top (a la Toronto with Kawhi or Butler with Miami.) For a team that’s hybriding, refusing to acquire a top 5 player who, if he is reasonably healthy, gives you a very good shot at a title is antithetical to the whole logic of the strategy you’ve adopted. And surely Embiid is a guy who can bring you over the top if he’s healthy. ”
Thing is, neither Butler or Kawhi was acquired via an all-in trade of the magnitude of what it would take to acquire Embiid. They were had for a virtual pittance that left the team largely intact. And that’s what I’m advocating for…doing something like what they did!
The better example of a team who went mega all-in via a hybrid strategy of sorts is the Lakers and AD, but they already had the GOAT on their roster, so it made more sense. We don’t have even a sure-fire top-20 player on our roster. Shit, half of the posters here wanted Julius salary-dumped at this time last year.
While Embiid is obviously light years better than Melo, the result of the kind of trade that has a chance of getting done would be the same…especially in the coming cap environment.
“Early Bird Writessays:
July 26, 2023 at 09:34
Are we really comparing Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and Christian Braun to Deuce McBride, Isaiah Roby and [insert vet’s minimum scrub]? Brown just signed a $20+M contract. In a 2022 redraft, Braun might go in the top 5.
I’ll give you the same advice I gave Hubert, maybe look at the stats rather than rely on reputation
Donte was hurt in game 3 of the playoffs that year and never played another minute in that championship run. BTW in those 3 games he had a .250 TS%. He never started for the Bucks again. (correction: he started 1 game the next year and went 0-5.)
Saying the Bucks won a championship with the guy who the coach thought was worse than him isn’t the best argument”
You’re just flailing away right now making one asinine argument after another, so I’ll disengage. Good luck!
This argument is kind of beside the point for a few reasons:
First, with the new CBA agreement, any trade now will necessarily look different from past star trades.
Second, the chances Embiid gets traded at all, much less to the Knicks, are very very slim because we are in the same division and other teams will have better offers (plus, him and Harden staying put is probably the best option for all parties.)
Third, despite being a top talent, Embiid just doesn’t seem like a Leon or Thibs guy at all.
The only way it would happen is if Embiid specifically demanded a trade to the NYKnicks, similar to what Dame is doing with Miami, and I don’t see that happening.
Like it or not, our next viable star is probably still Donovan Mitchell. Something could happen with Towns, too, we’ll see. In essence, a player will have to direct a trade specifically to the Knicks because we will always be outbid with our assets… look at Cleveland, for instance.
I glossed over it because it was a crap argument.
OKC, New Orleans, and Brooklyn received enormous value in picks.
We might, if we’re lucky, be able to match it. But we’re not “blowing it out of the water” with a top-10 protected Dallas pick, a top-4 protected Bucks pick, and two picks from Detroit and Washington that are so heavily protected they may never convert.
I may be in the minority..but I’m OK with Towns as a center. That’s when he was at his absolute best. Now..We’d need a defense first PF at least 6’9″ next to him for it to work, but an offense built around Towns, RJ, and Brunson would be better than our current offense. Problem is- Randle is playing well enough for us to not want to move off of him in favor of Towns. On top of that..KAT really hasn’t ben known for his durability the way Randle has. Seems like it would be a complicated addition for us, so it feels right to pass on him unless there’s other moves in Rose’s back pocket to augment that lineup
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38031459/nba-power-rankings-post-offseason-edition-changed-summer
Yeah, Embiid to OKC would be the obvious move for both teams. That would put two 1st team NBAers on the court together, fully surrounded by upside, while Philly enjoys the spoils of another team’s Process.
Strong disagree as it relates to Leon. Embiid is a former client of Leon’s and Embiid has called Leon “my guy,” “family to me,” and “a great human being.”
For this reason, I am confident Rose will pursue Embiid if there’s any chance of a trade.
This is a good thing, because acquiring reigning MVPs is Actually Good.
Leon’s bet since he took over has been that if the Knicks were reasonably good, they could make a trade for a star even if teams like OKC theoretically had better packages.
As evidenced by the Lillard saga, there’s not nothing to the idea that a team can win a superstar trade sweepstakes with something less than the best offer.
All this to say that I think some of you are underrating the chances of an Embiid trade. Yes, OKC and some other teams can drown us in assets, but that doesn’t do much for them if Embiid says he’s not moving to Oklahoma et al.
The question probably isn’t “do we have the best package in the league?” It’s more like “do we have the best package among teams in cities Joel Embiid would willingly live in?” I don’t know the answer, but there’s a much stronger chance the answer is yes to the latter than to the former.
It’s less about where Embiid would play and more about Morey. He’ll take the best package, period, which might not be ours.
With Chet, though, do we really think OKC would trade for him?
As for the ESPN rankings, they’re as dumb as The Athletic’s. Dumber, even. Not to mention that someone who is paid to write not knowing the difference between ‘compliments’ and ‘complements’ is pathetic.
I won’t rank the teams until closer to the season starting, but for example, if the Heat don’t get Lillard, anything over average (15/16 or so) is ridiculous. They lost key players, Butler always misses games, and Spo’s genius can’t compensate for not having enough good players to handle the grind of a full season. Would I put Denver first and Detroit last? Sure. Beyond that, these predictions are a joke.
I agree with Noble that we wouldn’t need to have the best package.
The thing is I don’t see Morey wanting RJ Barrett at all. And I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t want Mitch, either.
We could get it done, but I imagine it would look something like this:
Randle
IQ
Grimes
2024 1st (unprotected)
2025 swap rights (unprotected)
2026 1st (unprotected)
2027 swap rights (unprotected)
2028 1st (unprotected)
2029 swap rights (unprotected)
2030 1st (unprotected)
The Dallas pick
The Bucks pick
Just to clarify, my argument is NOT that the Knicks shouldn’t trade for Embiid at all. It’s that it shouldn’t be a deal that leaves us with a big 3 of Embiid, Randle, and Brunson with not a single bonafide starting caliber player, or any bench depth, or draft picks, or cap flexibility after the trade is made. Not for a guy who is turning 30 on 40yo legs.
Yeah, clearly I was talking about beating current teams while talking about the PG, AD, & KD trades. This is a great example of understanding context.
I don’t know why OKC or NOP would make an all-in trade for Embiid. Neither are close to contention and the prime of their stars is nowhere close to Embiid’s.
I’m not sure Brooklyn can beat our package of picks. They sent all theirs, plus a bunch of swaps, to Houston. They’ve pretty much broke even on picks
Have you checked to see if that would cap the Knicks out? I haven’t, but if that’s your claim maybe you should check
Embiid: 48M
Randle: 28M
Brunson: 26M
Hart: 13M
DDV: 11M
iHart: 9M
Deuce: 2M
Sims: 2M
7 more roster spots to fill: ???
Total: 139M+whatever it costs to fill the remaining 7 roster spots
Salary cap: 136M
At the very least we’d be over the cap but under the tax threshhold and have already used the mid-level non-taxpayers exception for DDV. Not sure what kind of trade exceptions we would have, or how we might acquire players using them, given that we would have no outgoing salary to spare (assuming we dumped Fournier to make room for Embiid) and no first round draft picks to trade.
In that context, I certainly think the idea of going all in for Embiid is worthy of honest debate. What I object to is grossly overvaluing what we have left to make the case. There is no question that the team that you proposed in the extreme (but certainly realistic) trade scenario would qualify as “gutted” for all intents and purposes. The argument you (and others) should be making is “Yeah, we’d be gutted but here are ways we can shore up the massive holes created by the trade, given the cap/asset/exception situation both immediately and going forward. I’m all ears for that kind of stuff.
But you (and others) can’t make clever arguments to address the elephant in the room: Embiid’s chronic knee issues. If you have faith that Embiid will be healthy enough to play 70ish regular season games and 20+ playoff games without being significantly compromised (if not unavailable) for the biggest games, then sure, the roster-building risks are that much more worth taking. I personally just don’t have that kind of faith in his knee cartilage holding up, given how he has to play to justify the trade, his size and weight, etc.
I will certainly concede that if we make that trade, we will probably have the best 5-6 year Knicks run since the Patrick Ewing days, which would be a nice outcome! And visualizing a path to a championship would definitely be less murky than it is right now. Which is why I’m not as adamaantly opposed to the Embiid idea as I was when we were debating the Spida trade.
Any championship run requires a bit of luck, but I think finding the back 7 role/bench players with 2nd round picks/udfas/Europe guys/ring-chasers is significantly less chancey than trying to find that 1A guy in the draft or in a totally lopsided superstar trade. This is to say: I have no idea how we’d fill out our back 7, but there are plenty of ways to. I think we’d have the BAE for a bench guy and could also bring over Rokas, for example. In any case, Denver’s bench was Christian Braun, Bruce Brown (who is average at best), and 37 year old Jeff Green!
I can see just being out on Embiid given his playoff performance/knee issues. I don’t think that either of those are significant enough deterrents to make a trade, but at least they’re cognizable reasons.
The Nets can offer:
BKN 2028 1st (unprotected)
BKN 2029 swap rights (unprotected)
BKN 2030 1st (unprotected)
PHX 2025 1st (unprotected)
PHX 2027 1st (unprotected)
PHX 2029 1st (unprotected)
DAL 2029 1st (unprotected)
Their stash is vastly superior to ours.
Damn, I didn’t realize it til I wrote that, but any superstar that wants to go to NY is most likely going to be a Net.
Yeah, sorry I should’ve said the 2nd Apron or hard cap. We’ll be well over the salary cap, lol
Stepien rule, Hubert?
Maybe I’m misunderstanding but Knicks can send 4 unprotected picks, 4 swaps, Dallas, MIL, & DET
So it’s six 1sts for NY and 4 swaps before counting DET or WAS picks
And 6 firsts plus 1 swap for Brooklyn
And what else are they offering? Cam Thomas? Ben Simmons? Anything as good as IQ or Mitch? Certainly not Mikal in a win now trade
I’m not seeing it
I think this is a significant misunderstanding of what we are doing here.
First off, calling it the “hybrid strategy” was probably a bad idea to begin with. That makes it sound like there are some set pattern for what we are doing. There is no pattern to what we are doing. That’s the whole point.
What we are doing (or attempting to do) it take advantage of whatever opportunities offer the best value and makes the most strategic sense at the time given the latest CBA rules, current market for picks, current market for free agents and trades, and our own needs.
Almost every effort like this will take a different path because there is no plan. There are only needs, opportunities, and values. It could end up with mostly draft selections, mostly free agents, mostly trades, and any combination of above.
It’s success is predicated on how well we value players and picks, how well we develop the players we have, how well we fit players together strategically, and some draft luck.
The whole point is that everything is on the table at all times.
Both the athletic and ESPN rankings have the same five teams ahead of us in the East: Milwaukee, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia and Cleveland. I think that is a fair representation of conventional, unthinking wisdom. The traditionally good teams are still good and the bottom doesn’t get better. It’s actually a little surprising the Knicks are as high as sixth.
Players have a lot of power these days. We’ve repeatedly seen stars move to teams teams based on how good the team will be, who they want to play with, and where they want to live over who could theoretically offer the best package. They just threaten to not re-sign and the team that could theoretically offer the best package backs off.
The Knicks were repeatedly rejected by free agents because the team sucked. That what made so many of those cap clearing moves of the past foolish.
If you want to be a player in the free agency and trade wars, you have to be one of the attractive cities and you have to be good.
I’m not the world’s biggest Boone hater (he’s not good but I don’t think Casey Stengel is doing much with this group) but my totally unverifiable theory is having a different lineup literally every day is probably not good.
To the extent lineups matter outside of extreme scenarios, getting players into a routine strikes me as an important function.
“Milwaukee, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia and Cleveland.”
On paper, we’re maybe the equal of Miami. In terms of results, only Miami was better than we were. What a strange season.
This guy Rodon is giving me Ed Whitson or Hideki Irabu flashbacks
I agree. I think Boston and Cleveland improved and the other teams did not. Milwaukee may be worse than its record last year. I don’t think we improved much. We gave up a useful role player and got a player who is probably good but doesn’t have a role. Atlanta and Indiana may improve, but I’m not sure by how much. I’m sure Orlando will be better but they have a long way to go. So fifth or sixth in the division seems reasonable to me.
The Nets have a first round pick in 2027 (either theirs or Houston’s). So they can trade their own pick in ’28 and ’30.
He’s giving me “nearly every pitcher Cashman ever signed” flashbacks. The guy’s list of pitching blunders is incredibly long.
Rodon is the least of the Yankees problems, he’ll be fine.
Cashman has made so many bad moves I admit I’m at a bit of a loss at what to do with that team.
Besides fire Boone, obvs