Knicks Morning News (2023.07.03)

“Shall we post DDV’s playoff shooting and scoring numbers again?”

Nah, the folks (or should I say folk?) who think that makes an iota of difference in evaluating the signing already know what they are.

“If I was an athletic director at a scrappy Power 5 NCAA basketball program, I’d hire Tom Thibodeau in a heartbeat. He can recruit his undervalued hustlebunnies, coach and system them up, and beat a lot of the big boys. That’s actually where he should have spent his career.”

Poor E missed his true calling as career counselor.

JK, first, why are you speaking as if the offseason is over and this year’s roster is set in stoneless than a week into free agency? Leon has the rest of the offseason to make moves, and even up to the trade deadline. And what high-risk move would you have wanted to have made thus far?

Second, I think your characterization of them being “extremely risk-averse” doesn’t really fit. In fact, committing to a hybrid method of rebuilding is extremely risky by definition. It requires extreme patience, threading the needle on more transactions than not, and eventually some luck. It’s riskier than going into full tear-down tank mode…which is why nearly everyone here would have preferred that method. (although the flattening of the lottery odds have added risk to that method as well, but I digress…)

That said, if you are going to commit to the hybrid method, some level of risk-aversion is obviously required. If we had met Ainge’s asking price, that would have blown the strategy all to hell. Thankfully, they showed a modicum of risk-aversion there…not enough for me, but I’ll take it!

But there have been many transactions that I think can be characterized as risky:

-It was risky to offer multiple unprotected first and swaps plus multiple young players for Donovan Mitchell last year. To me, that was a crazy risk, not worth it at all, but at the same time, it largely disproves the notion that the FO is “extremely risk-averse.”

-It was risky to a) sign Julius to a long-term extension and b) to believe that Julius’s 2021-22 season was not indicative of his ability and value. Considering that many here felt that the risk of NOT trading him was extreme enough to blow first rounders in a salary dump, that hardly sounds like being extremely risk-averse.

-It was risky to sign RJ to an extension given that he had pretty much sucked for 3 years and 7,000+ minutes. So far, that risk hasn’t paid off. Alas, can’t win ’em all!

-It was risky to let Mitch’s season play out towards free agency where he could have left for nothing. That worked out swimmingly!

-It was risky trading a lottery-protected first rounder for Josh Hart. Obviously there are some here who are still appalled by the trade, suggesting that it was indeed risky, and that it was dumb luck that made it work out so well in the short run.

-And now, it was risky to dump Obi for two seconds just to clear salary space for signing Donte DiVincenzo to the MLE. Obi may go on to be a stud, while DDV barely earns his money…those opinions have been expressed.

II think that this FO is frustratingly unconventional at times, and that they actually aren’t risk-averse enough. It’s risky to sell draft picks for cap space….see: the incineration saga. But they are committed to building team culture and to spending all of their assets on win-now rotation-level players while maximizing cap flexibility by avoiding albatross contracts or the cap holds of guaranteed rookie deals for non-rotation players. They have made lots of mistakes, from Elfrid to Kemba to Fournier…but they pulled off the steal of the decade in tampering for Brunson. At the end of the day, most pundits are viewing the FO more positively right now than in decades.

And based on the alacrity with which they pursued Spida, I don’t think they will hesitate to throw the kitchen sink into a blockbuster deal when the right opportunity comes along. And having all of your chips riding on that happening is incredibly risky, isn’t it? It’s possible that Leon starts feeling the heat, loses patience, and goes all-in on an aging superstar.

“I’m seeing a lot of “nothing will go wrong but everything will go right” in these projections for next year. I’m familiar with this line of thinking as a Mets fan.

Things don’t usually work out that way.”

I don’t think much wish-casting is required for this team as currently constructed to have a similar season to last year…but yeah, if one of our key players blows out his patellar tendon celebrating a victory in the World Cup, that would really suck.

Sorry Ben R, I don’t agree with what you posted at all, except that perhaps the “contender” iteration to come is not built on “home grown” talent. Although even that is questionable…seems likely that at least two of Mitch, RJ, IQ or Grimes are retained for a while.

In the current NBA, it really shouldn’t matter how a team builds a contender. Does anyone really care that Jalen Brunson is not home grown? Or if we traded RJ for OG or Mikal straight up, would anyone be upset? Certainly not me! Personally, I feel no difference between rooting for Randle, Brunson, iHart, JHart, and DDV, and rooting for RJ, IQ, Grimes, Mitch, Deuce, Sims, and the dear, departed Obi. But I guess that’s a personal preference.

As to the rest of what you posted, I vehemently disagree that Leon has “capped the ceiling of this team.” In fact, the ceiling of this team is higher than it has been in over two decades. The reason is because we have two all-star level players and the assets to acquire a third one while having enough left over to field a solid supporting cast around them.

We seem to finally be in a similar position to where the Nets were when KD and Kyrie chose them over the Knicks. While market conditions have changed, the idea is the same: Build a high 40’s win team with lots of depth but no alpha and then improve from there via trading for a star or two. Again, smart pundits are seeing this path, and so are some long-time skeptics here at KB.

Randle, Mitch, Brunson and JHart pretty much are what they are. I doubt we’ll see much in the way of regression from any of them if they stay healthy.

I believe there is more variance to consider with RJ, IQ, Grimes, iHart, DDV, and Deuce. All of these guys seem to be capable of a breakout of some sort, mainly based on 3pt shooting and/or finishing in the paint.

For the time being, I expect that they will fill the “big” backup 4 spot with either an older vet on a minimum deal or a young defensive PF who will be okay in a situational role, also on a near-minimum deal.

“Duece, IQ, Grimes, Hart, DD, Barrett, and even Fournier have one thing in common. Their best position is SG.”

In a sense this might be true, but given the positionless nature of today’s NBA it doesn’t matter nearly as much as the label implies. RJ, JHart, Grimes and Fournier are wings. DD and Deuce are combo guards.

The roster lacks size at the wing position. Sooner or later, that will have to be addressed. However, having a rim protecting, offensive rebounding dive man on the floor at all times mitigates that problem somewhat. It’s not like Obi’s size was much of a factor last year. He averaged 6.4 Rebs per 36 last year, compared to JHart at 8.4 and RJ at 5.4. Grimes and McBride averaged as many blocks per 36 as Obi. Somehow we got away with that for 82 games and one playoff series against a team with a 7 foot PF.

So I’ll buy that we need to improve in that regard, but swapping DD for Obi in and of itself will have a negligible impact.

“What are you talking about, Z-Man? We have Brunson, he’s our alpha! 😉”

lol I agree he’s our spiritual alpha!