Knicks Morning News (2023.06.01)

Maybe NBA owners need a salary cap for the coaches too, they’re totally unable to restrain themselves, Monty’s new contract is crazy…

Detroit’s 1st round pick to New York protected for selections…

1-18 in 2024

1-13 in 2025

1-11 in 2026

1-9 in 2027

I think we can safely rule out the next two years.

No point making predictions beyond that, but it’s definitely not in the “likely to convey” category.

I don’t think it’s impossible that it conveys in 2025. Monty’s a good coach, and they have a bunch of young talent on the team. If Cade and Ivey continue to improve, if they manage to get the right guy at 5 this year, etc., it doesn’t seem impossible for them to be a low playoff seed by then.

It doesn’t matter whether it actually conveys or not. It only matters whether opposing GMs think it will convey and when/where. I would guess that nearly ever GM in the league would put this pick in the “very likely to convey in the 10-20 range within 2-3 years” category.

As such, it’s perfectly fine to refer to the pick as an “surplus first rounder.” It probably has as much market value as a lottery-protected pick of our own, e.g. the pick we traded for Josh Hart, if not more.

If nothing else, that Monty contract (which, wow, good for him) is a good sign that the Pistons intend to convey that pick to us eventually.

Obviously as we’ve seen with the Mavs, those intentions only get you so far. Hopefully the Pistons get bored with losing and decide to have the 7th best SRS one of these years, a decision any team can make at any time SORRY SORRY SORRY.

*built into my assessment of that pick is the impact that the new CBA will have on parity going forward, i.e. it will be easier for doormat teams to compete with and bypass established teams. The Pistons are going to have lots of trade capital to relieve teams looking to avoid highly punitive tax hits of bloated contracts. Between the breakout of young stars like Cade, Ivey, maybe Wiseman; more high lottery picks; and marketable vets like Bojan and Burks; and a high-profile coaching hire, getting in to the play-in in a couple of years seems reasonably likely.

Hmmm, I saw another article about how KP back to NY makes sense, how all is forgiven, and how NY may be more than willing to move on from Mitch because of his limitations on offense and the need for better spacing for RJ, Brunson, and Randle. It didn’t sound like it was coming from KP’s camp for leverage in his own negotiations with the Wizards.

The top-10 protected Dallas pick conveying at #11 would have been an incredibly lucky outcome. Even Cuban understood that and wasn’t gonna let it happen without every effort to prevent it. In fact, when the deal was made, one would have guessed that it would convey no higher than the mid-teens. As it stands, the pick is probably more valuable now than it has been at any point other than pre-trade deadline 2023. Prior to that, the Mavs finished 7th, 4th and 5th in the Western Conference and went to the conference finals, so before we swindled them out of Brunson we all thought the pick would convey in low 20’s. Now there’s a much better chance that it conveys in the mid-teens.

I would be fine with KP on the right deal but doubt it would happen. However, his injury history and Thibs are a bad combo. See: Kemba Walker averiging 40+ minutes in a 4-game stretch.

The biggest positive is that my son could break out the signed KP jersey I paid top dollar for at a school auction.

Mitch really helps our defense, to state something that is completely obvious. It’s weird to want to trade him when the clear offensive shortcomings lie elsewhere.

I think the defensive advantages you get from Mitch sort of wane as you move up in the playoffs. That said, what about KP and Mitch as a C tandem? KP could even play some PF in a twin towers alignment…

The biggest positive is that my son could break out the signed KP jersey I paid top dollar for at a school auction.

Assuming Grimes agrees to give up his number…

Phil Jackson was brought in here to make personnel decisions, he was brought in to run the team, and he had final say on all decisions. He made shitty decisions, which you are for some reason determined to blame on Steve Mills.

Can we please stop with the fake media news.

Phil made some bad contract mistakes, but the reality and what is commonly reported have very little to do with each other. People just hate Phil because he’s an arrogant prick, but that has nothing to do with basketball.

When Phil was hired, he was missing 1st round picks, capped out, had 2 radioactive contracts in Felton and JR Smith, a hurt Tyson Chandler that asked out because he didn’t want to be part of a multi-year rebuild, and no free agents wanted to come to NY.

In hold’em terms that’s 7-2 off suit. It doesn’t get much worse. No one one earth was going to turn that around quickly.

Unfortunately, he made several bad contract mistakes (with no help from Mills who was the GM forced on him) that hurt the progress.

However, he handed off a team with KP, all its picks, Frank still had some value at that stage, and 20 million of cap space when he got fired. He didn’t do well, but we moved forward. From there competent management could have moved forward while running out the clock on the bad contacts.

Everything that happened after that was on Mills/Perry and it set us back a few years instead of moving us forward.

1. Hardaway Jr was put in the cap space. Not only was that a basketball and salary mistake, we received less for KP than he was worth because they wanted to unload him in the KP deal. That Hardaway signing was an underrated debacle.

2. They drafted Knox instead of an obvious Bridges. Monumental error. I would bet my life against a dollar Phil would have drafted Bridges because he was the perfect addition to his offense and played defense.

3. They swung for the fences to open up up cap space in the KP deal instead of negotiating with every team and trying to bring in more young talent and picks. Swing and a miss when it was obvious at that stage no one would want to come to NY.

4. They pushed out Noah’s contract instead of letting it just expire as quickly as possible.

Phil deserves to be criticized harshly for his mistakes, but the idea that his regime was an abomination misses what he was given to work with and how badly Mills/Perry fucked up the bit of progress he made.

Swing and a miss when it was obvious at that stage no one would want to come to NY.

Strat, your post will no doubt invite rebuttal, but you have introduced a new factually incorrect statement into your narrative. Don’t you remember the KD to NY rumours at the time?

i seriously doubt that either detroit or washington intended to tank for 5 years so i’m not sure what the monty signing changes things about the picks….

the detroit pick has a better shot at conveying eventually and probably a coinflip that we get either the washington or detroit pick… but they’re not great bets in either case… and that’s besides the fact that it’d be at least 4 years after the #11 pick was used….

Phil Jackson didn’t make any progress. He took over a 37 win team, spent a ton of money and assets over 3 years, and left us with a 31 win team with no extra picks. He was worse than a hypothetical GM who literally made no moves at all.

The 2017-2018 salary cap was $99M. Because of Phil Jackson and only Phil Jackson, the Knicks owed $58.5M to Carmelo Anthony, Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee, and Lance Thomas that year. Those guys all sucked by then. That’s honestly an unfathomably bad use of scarce resources that I don’t think we’ve seen replicated by any team since Phil Jackson was mercifully pushed out of the NBA.

The funny thing about Strat’s “everything was fine and dandy until the Tim Hardaway Jr. contract ruined it all” idea is…that contract didn’t age so badly!

To be clear, it wasn’t good by any stretch and was a particularly bad idea for us specifically because Phil Jackson’s tenure left us with one good option: tanking. He had three years to try to get us some assets and/or wins and wasn’t able to do either, so that’s what was left strategy wise. THJ’s contract obviously did not serve that end.

But over the 4 years THJ was signed to that deal he averaged 17 PPG, shot 36% from 3 on 7 attempts per game, and was very durable.

Again, it was a bad contract, but it wouldn’t have been one of Phil Jackson’s worst 5 moves if he was the one who made it.

Kevin Knox sucks, but he’ll probably have a longer NBA career than the guy Phil Jackson drafted over Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo.

I have to admit, “Phil Jackson would’ve drafted Mikal Bridges, I am sure of it” is a new addition to the bit, and it’s hilarious.

Hardaway Jr was put in the cap space. Not only was that a basketball and salary mistake, we received less for KP than he was worth because they wanted to unload him in the KP deal.

So was Courtney Lee. Unlike Hardaway, Lee was completely useless at that point.

a hurt Tyson Chandler that asked out because he didn’t want to be part of a multi-year rebuild

Getting Jose Calderon & Sam Dalembert for Chandler was a terrible trade. We should have gotten better draft capital in the deal too.

4. They pushed out Noah’s contract instead of letting it just expire as quickly as possible.

This is kinda on Phil…

1. Hardaway Jr was put in the cap space.

Phil traded him away for garbage, which forced us to sign him away from the Hawks as a RFA rather than get him at a good price with RFA working for us.

However, he handed off a team with KP, all its picks, Frank still had some value at that stage, and 20 million of cap space when he got fired.

He didn’t trade picks away, but failed to add any significant picks or compete. We wasted 4yrs without adding any assets and without winning games.

We needed to salary dump Melo. Phil needed to rebuild earlier and get pick compensation for him.

If Randle and Grimes are healthy and we beat Miami is that because Mitch fucked up our offense?

“Phil made some bad contract mistakes”

That’s pretty much the only kind he made. The Noah debacle was his Magnum Dopus. Seven fucking years of dead cap space.

“…with no help from Mills who was the GM forced on him”

Bullshit. He was the highest POBO in the NBA based on zero executive experience. If he knew his ass from his elbow, he would have known that Mills was incompetent and insisted on his own GM. That he didn’t do that is 100% on him and his cluelessness.

However, he handed off a team with KP, all its picks, Frank still had some value at that stage, and 20 million of cap space when he got fired. He didn’t do well, but we moved forward. From there competent management could have moved forward while running out the clock on the bad contacts.

-Phil did well by drafting KP. It wasn’t rocket science, though. Now had he drafted Jokic instead of Cleanthony Early (or Spencer Dinwiddie, or Jerami Grant, or Jordan Clarkson), I’d be impressed.
-Phil deserves credit not trading first round picks as foolishly as his predecessors. But that’s a low-ass bar.
-Frank had minimal value from the second he was drafted. You NEVER could have traded him for any kind of first rounder whatsoever. THAT was an incineration, not the BS metaphor applied to marginally suboptimal draft trade-outs. Frank was picked as a triangle-friendly PG, which was a dumb pick for an even dumber reason.
-The proposition that he left things better than he got them is, again, as low of a bar as one could possibly set. Dolan burned $40 million for 2.5 years of replacement-level GMing. That he followed that up with a guy who made things worse instead of better is besides the point.

even the KP pick is the sort of pick that phil would get right for all the wrong reasons…. which explains all the other mistakes…. this is like how john hammond for years drafted projects and ‘high upside’ low production picks… and then finally got it right after giannis has another growth spurt…

and for all the reasons he made the kp pick… that also resulted in the frank pick….

On another subject I did some digging and have details of what the new CBA says about minimum team salary. It is as follows. The key date is the first day of the regular season. If the team payroll is less than 90% of the cap on that day a team must immediately pay the league the difference between the team payroll and 90% of the salary cap. In addition, they then do not receive any luxury tax distribution that season. If during the season they arrange a desk or make a move that would reduce team payroll below 90% of the cap, that move will be disallowed. Note that these rules both make it more expensive to be under the 90% than to be just over it and they prevent teams from finding a way to be at minimum payroll just at the trade deadline and saving themselves salary money over the whole year.

I don’t think anyone will want to be under the 90%. In fact, it’s likely the first day of the regular season will act as a deadline and teams will do trades and such with this date in mind. If a team has to shed salary, it’s likely now they do it in the summer instead of during the regular season before the trade deadline.

Edit: note that there is a phase in of the no luxury tax distribution. The first year the penalty is half the luxury tax distribution, not all of it

Excellent conversation between Katz and Seth Partnow about the state of the team and options for the future. Even if Seth is lower on Brunson than I am: https://theathletic.com/4569622/2023/06/01/knicks-analysis-building-around-jalen-brunson-immanuel-quickleys-future-and-more/

KFINJ I hate to keep bursting your bubble but this really is a rather minor change. The new CBA will be an earthquake for teams that are significantly over the luxury tax, but there just aren’t many examples of teams significantly under the cap. Forcing the rare team that is to remedy it by the beginning of the season as opposed to the trade deadline will basically be unnoticeable in terms of implications.

So Steve Mills is to blame for the mistakes Phil Jackson made but Scott Perry can’t blame Steve Mills for his mistakes? Do you fucking hear yourself talk?

“If Randle and Grimes are healthy and we beat Miami is that because Mitch fucked up our offense?”

One would think that a guy who put up only dunks and putbacks on a 10% usage could muster something better than a .522 TS%, but hey, that’s just me. He did almost average a block a game, though! And 41% from the FT line is nothing to sneeze at!

I actually would be super open to KP coming back IF I knew he could stay healthy.

I know Mitch isn’t always healthy either but I feel like KP is worse. He does seem like he’s matured a lot though, and he would open up the paint a lot for our other scorers.

Phil Jackson sucked. Scott Perry sucked a little less. End of discussion. Why the fuck are we talking about this? I’d rather relitigate the incinerated 19th pick again than talk about Phil Fucking Jackson.

How about he hired Derrick Fischer, who was awful. But then Derrick Fischer got a little bit better and he fired him because Fischer didn’t want to run the triangle cause the team played better when they didn’t run the triangle?

“Forcing the rare team that is to remedy it by the beginning of the season as opposed to the trade deadline will basically be unnoticeable in terms of implications.”

Well it does make the “rent cap space for picks” option less available. That was a major prong of the Hinkie-tanking strategy. Between that and the odds-flattening, doesn’t seem like as viable of a path as it was previously, even the OKC method seems harder to execute now.

I don’t think it’s impossible that it conveys in 2025. Monty’s a good coach, and they have a bunch of young talent on the team. If Cade and Ivey continue to improve, if they manage to get the right guy at 5 this year, etc., it doesn’t seem impossible for them to be a low playoff seed by then.

I think that’s a fair assessment.

But I also think an asset that is “not impossible” to become a first round pick in 2025 isn’t going to be coveted by any GMs.

This asset is in a class by itself: it ranks above all 2nd round picks, but below all first round picks.

Most likely teams significantly under the cap just sign some vets to a 1yr deal that pays them more than they’re worth.

If a team was trying to salary dump a bad contract, they usually work that out well before the minimum penalty would kick in.

Excellent conversation between Katz and Seth Partnow about the state of the team and options for the future. Even if Seth is lower on Brunson than I am: https://theathletic.com/4569622/2023/06/01/knicks-analysis-building-around-jalen-brunson-immanuel-quickleys-future-and-more/

I second the value of the article.

“Scott Perry sucked a little less.”

Scott Perry did not suck at all. He was perfectly average, maybe a bit better than that.

The fact that we couldn’t get Hart for the Washington pick says a lot about its perceived value, too. We’ll have to wait and see what transpires this offseason with the Wiz. If they re-sign Porzingis, they could be a fringe play-in team. If they don’t, it seems likely they’re headed down the tanking route.

Strat, your takes on everything else except Phil Jackson are very reasonable and often insightful. I don’t really understand the blind spot. Maybe it’s because you defended Phil at the time and simply don’t want to say “yeah I guess I was wrong, he was terrible.” It’s really not so hard to do that.

Pretty much everybody here is piling on you, even people who don’t usually agree on things. “Phil Was Terrible” is one of the few topics here on which there is complete consensus.

At this point it’s like arguing that Eyes Wide Shut was the greatest Kubrick film, or that Crystal Pepsi was truly a great soft drink, or that Creed and Nickelback were on par with the Beatles and Stones. It’s just getting deeply weird.

Hopefully the Pistons get bored with losing and decide to have the 7th best SRS one of these years, a decision any team can make at any time SORRY SORRY SORRY.

You should be sorry because a) it’s blatant mischaracterization of a reasonable argument, and b) there’s a high probability you’ll wake E and this thread will be derailed.

Your defection to Team Troll this year has been a very unfortunate development for this blog because you’ve traditionally been one of its best voices.

I don’t think harder enforcement of the salary floor does much to hinder the Hinkie strategy. Teams will just execute salary dumps in the offseason as opposed to the deadline a bit more frequently, and in any event they can still execute them at the deadline using the space remaining between the floor and the cap.

Very few teams have entered the season below the floor, and even fewer have stayed below it through the deadline. It’s hard to think of a team in recent memory this change would’ve affected. It’s just about getting a few extra guys contracts instead of distribution to incumbent players.

At this point it’s like arguing that Eyes Wide Shut was the greatest Kubrick film

It’s funny you mention that because my film club just voted to select this as our next movie while I was away.

Even worse, the two finalists were Eyes Wide Shut and There Will Be Blood, and they voted for the Kubrick film.

If it weren’t for 2016, this would have been my biggest disappointment with democracy.

I haven’t watched Eyes Wide Shut since it was first released in ’99, by the way.

If anyone feels like chatting about something other than Phil Jackson today, feel free to share your thoughts.

I distinctly recall thinking Kubrick’s New York (filmed in London, clean AF) was the silliest representation of my city I had ever seen. But in retrospect maybe that was intentional to convey we were inside TC’s character’s fantasy.

I don’t think harder enforcement of the salary floor does much to hinder the Hinkie strategy.

I don’t know TNFH. Looked at from the bigger picture–where it is recognised that the NBA is hell-bent on discouraging tanking by flattening odds, adding play-in games and now increased luxury-tax hell for those trying to maintain a dynasty–what they have done is try to close the door on financially profiting while you are tanking. Every little bit helps.

I remember an ex-girlfriend trying to convince me that Jonathan Rhys-Meyer’s shit acting in Match Point was intentional, since his character was nothing more than an actor (i.e. grifter) in the story.

Nah. Just bad. Just like Eyes Wide Shut. I came home to the Young Miss Jowles watching it on her laptop the other day. We have a 50” TV with a Bose sound system attached in the next room.

Her laptop.

“Your defection to Team Troll this year has been a very unfortunate development for this blog because you’ve traditionally been one of its best voices.”

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

TNFH maybe, but I recall a bunch of situations in the past where a team desperate to make a move before the deadline was helped by a team with lots of available cap space, including the Sixers and Nets. Weren’t these preceded by pure salary dumps by tanking team to open up space and keep it open into the season?

This is not to say that I disagree that it’s a relatively minor development, or that there aren’t ways around it. But as BE said, every little bit helps.

“Magnum Dopus” was a pretty good dad phrase. Nice one.

$72M for Monty Williams? They’re gonna need a coaching staff salary cap soon. That’s absurd money.

We have a 50” TV with a Bose sound system attached in the next room.

Her laptop.

If it’s as bad as I remember, then I can understand why she wanted to hide the fact that I was watching it.

I think the salary floor rules is more a demand of the player’s union because empty cap space is money that’s not going to players. And it encourages teams to hire more players.

In the previous iteration, I believe teams still had to pay up to the floor but didn’t incur any penalties on top of that. So this is just a stronger incentive to use that money on players looking for a job instead of distributing it to players who already had contracts.

“The fact that we couldn’t get Hart for the Washington pick says a lot about its perceived value, too.”

Agreed. Since our pick was a) fully lottery protected and b) virtually guaranteed to convey well outside the lottery unless Hart was a bust, the WAS pick was a MUCH more desirable asset to hold on to.

“So this is just a stronger incentive to use that money on players instead of sending it to the league (or wherever it went).”

My understanding was that it was already being distributed to the players on the team’s roster, so if that’s the case it had no impact in that regard.

Something didn’t work once in a particular playoff series so we need to change it is a stupid way to build a team.

I think Miami was emotionally lucky in game 1s of the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year. Game 1 against the Knicks took place immediately after the high of beating Cleveland in 5 games, and hearing from the media that we’re a championship team. Game 1 against Boston happened right after the Celtics won a game 7 against Philadelphia. So both NY and Philly were on an emotional high, and bound for a down game.

This is not the case in the finals. In fact it’s the Heat coming off of an incredible win. So the flow of emotional highs and lows favors Denver this time. Based on nothing else, other than the emotional highs and lows, I take the Nuggets in game 1.

Game 1 against the Knicks took place immediately after the high of beating Cleveland in 5 games

Randle was also out for game 1… but that might’ve helped more than hurt

“Something didn’t work once in a particular playoff series so we need to change it is a stupid way to build a team.”

Blaming other players for underperformance while ignoring the woeful underperformance of others is a stupid way to build a team.

The Katz/Partnow article really is great. Particularly liked that Partnow drew attention to our lack of rim pressure, which as flown under the radar with the focus being on our lack of shooting. I said during the playoffs that it was a shame Derrick Rose turned into a pumpkin because there were definitely times we could’ve used the version from him from just a year ago. Our offense often got bogged down on the perimeter, with teams content to let RJ try to make something happen at the rim.

Of course, on second thought we can disregard anything Partnow has to say because he called Quentin Grimes an “immensely valuable supporting player.” Guess he’s part of the out-of-touch Knickerblogger hive mind.

Zman you spent last summer yelling incessantly that Mitch wasn’t a viable starting center I think you might have a bit of a bias. The Knicks had a very good offense last season, maybe we should try to shore up the defense and depth a bit before we start jettisoning out best players

With Lonzo hurt, Chicago will have to blow it all up.

Fournier+DRose (sign and trade as salary filler) + 5 1RP/Swaps for Zach Lavine as move one.

Same day move two: RJ + Grimes for OG.

Brunson/Deuce
LaVine/IQ
OG/Hart
Randle/Obi
Mitch/iHart

Roughly same defense but improve offensive rating by a mile.

Three legit All-Stars and two defensive minded efficient players makes for a contender type strating unit. With IQ and 2 Harts, – second unit is legit too.

You should be sorry because a) it’s blatant mischaracterization of a reasonable argument,

Indeed. And “reasonable,” if anything understates it. It’s the 3 month US treasury bills of arguments.

b) there’s a high probability you’ll wake E and this thread will be derailed.

No need to carry on with it. It spoke for itself.

Your defection to Team Troll this year has been a very unfortunate development for this blog because you’ve traditionally been one of its best voices.

Indeed it is. Concur.

Of course, on second thought we can disregard anything Partnow has to say because he called Quentin Grimes an “immensely valuable supporting player.” Guess he’s part of the out-of-touch Knickerblogger hive mind.

Not “disregard,” per se. But apparently here, “read and disregard.” Appeals to authority aren’t really strong arguments, at least to things one can observe for oneself. I personally don’t really need Seth Parnow, though I’m curious as to what he thinks as well as to what a number of other observers think.

Quentin Grimes was terrible in the playoffs and is really nothing special as a player. He’s a strange hill to die on, needless to say.

Getting beyond the petty characterizations, because there’s a whole bunch of reasons why we lost to the Heat, my feeling is that everyone on this team should be viewed through the lens of scarcity and valuation. Mitch is no doubt a bargain at what he’s getting paid on his contract, which makes him a fairly valuable trade asset. But he is, in fact, a big who can’t shoot, pass or make FTs. It may be easier to replace him with someone who better complements the less marketable players with more scarce and more expensive skillsets than to find players who mask his considerable flaws.

“Zman you spent last summer yelling incessantly that Mitch wasn’t a viable starting center”

PS this is an oversimplification. Most conversations about Mitch were related to whether he would be lost for nothing. That said, I do think that you and others put him up on a pedestal and are blind to his glaring flaws. I’m pretty neutral on him….fine with keeping him, fine with trading him and promoting iHart to starter. No one (other than maybe E, not sure where he draws the line) is suggesting that we should merely “jettison” him….don’t understand why you are so defensive about him.

For a variety of reasons, Mitch and Grimes and Josh Hart have become sacred cows around here, and not really “Knicks basketball players to be objectively analyzed, warts and all.”

That’s neither bad nor good, but just is. There’s a blend of fan and analyst in all of us and it’s not really feasible to think everyone will always keep only the analyst hat on.

Is what it is.

Particularly liked that Partnow drew attention to our lack of rim pressure, which as flown under the radar with the focus being on our lack of shooting.

I think you also have to ask if these two issues are somewhat entangled. We have a lot of below-average to bad shooters… and I wonder if some of those below-average percentages are from teams letting them shoot.

For instance, 40% of Obi’s shots (all shots, not just 3s) during the season were wide open 3s. He took very few contested 3s and still ended up with a below average 3p%.

So Obi’s guy probably snuck into the paint to help on drives relatively often.

The other factor is RJ taking a lot of rim attempts and being pretty terrible at them, which I assume tanks our rim fg% that he cites.

“Indeed it is. Concur.”

Funny how the poster who recently took offense at being called a troll (by numerous posters, not just me) is so quick to applaud a fellow troll for characterizing one of KB’s most respected posters on the board as a member of Team Troll.

Pretty much says it all.

Of course, on second thought we can disregard anything Partnow has to say because he called Quentin Grimes an “immensely valuable supporting player.” Guess he’s part of the out-of-touch Knickerblogger hive mind.

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/appeal-to-authority-fallacy/

The appeal to authority fallacy is the logical fallacy of saying a claim is true simply because an authority figure made it.

Oh, well then — I better change my current opinion of Quentin Grimes … Seth Partnow thinks something different!!

The other factor is RJ taking a lot of rim attempts and being pretty terrible at them, which I assume tanks our rim fg% that he cites.

RJ is not terrible at the rim… in fact he probably brings our %s up…. i don’t have the ranking off hand since i don’t have bref premium anymore or theathletic but we do rank pretty well in floater %s and depending on where you draw the line on whether it’s 3 or 4 feet that could be putting in noise on the rim numbers that partnow is seeing….

fine with keeping him, fine with trading him and promoting iHart to starter.

I’m concerned that we’ll have trouble keeping iHart passed next season. His Early Bird Rights don’t give us a ton of leeway to re-sign him if he proves a capable starter. So we’re potentially left without any good centers at a time when we have few ways to add talented players.

Mitch pretty much won the 1st round single-handed.

That partnow discussion was interesting but I thought it was ludicrous to say our shit doesn’t work in the playoffs given that we haven’t spent enough time there. Like if the Celtics went out in the 2nd round each of the last 4 years maybe you can find something there, but idk about this swuad

“For a variety of reasons, Mitch and Grimes and Josh Hart have become sacred cows around here”

I get what you’re saying but extreme and unwarranted criticism brings out defensiveness. No one is calling those guys all-stars or untouchable. Just valuable pieces that should command a commensurate price or are best kept. I guess you could argue that these three guys are most valued by Team Pure Moneyball, which is a very solid management team to be on. Like E, I prefer a more nuanced approach that considers what opposing coaches can do to counteract the Moneyball approach deep into the playoffs. The top coaches like Spo are going to figure out how to neutralize those cheat codes, and other teams with Thibs-level coaches will simply out-talent these guys. None of them should be considered cornerstones of a championship team. However, they CAN be key components if on the right team with the right coach, so it’s kind of silly to just conclude that they should be dumped just because of their perceived limitations.

E do you want me to dig up all your comments leaning on Seth’s tier rankings last summer to explain why the Knicks weren’t going to be any good this year?

If Seth Partnow said our shit doesn’t work in the playoffs … well, guess who’s been saying that pretty much all along?

But we didn’t hear that part about ol’ Seth Partnow, did we? We heard what Seth Partnow said about Quentin Grimes … so why didn’t we also hear about what he said about what shit works in the playoffs?

Go figure.

So as with all other people and observers, some of what they say, you agree with and some of what they say, you do not agree with.

E do you want me to dig up all your comments leaning on Seth’s tier rankings last summer to explain why the Knicks weren’t going to be any good this year?

Dude, you can do whatever the fuck you want. Seems a bit obsessive and a waste of time from where I sit, but you do you.

RJ is not terrible at the rim… in fact he probably brings our %s up….

Yeah, he’s not as bad as I remembered.

I thought NBA.com defined at the rim as within 5ft (BK-Ref goes to 3ft) but I can’t find those stats anywhere anymore.

The top coaches like Spo are going to figure out how to neutralize those cheat codes,

This was also predicted in advance by some of us, me amongst them. That and your next sentence is why they need to move on from Thibs. When we predicted this in advance, we got the usual “troll,” “pessimist,” “hater,” “wanna bet??,” and all the rest.

With that out of the way, Robinson is a mezzanine aisle, Moneyball player through and through. Josh Hart kind of is, though not entirely.

Quentin Grimes is not. For all that he is and isn’t, he is usable theoretically in a normalized, modern offense.

Lol e mad.

It’s funny how Z-Man essentially agrees with every substantive point I’ve made about the team in three years but just doesn’t want to admit it because when it’s time to criticize, I get a bit more spicy about it.

In fairness, I probably wouldn’t either if I was in his internet shoes.

Internet gonna internet.

Partnow was less-than-dazzled by Playoff RJ, which unfortunately feels right. He was vastly better than in the regular season, and a playable starter, but much of the “Star J Barrett” online contingent believes this is absolute proof that he’s finally lived up to his pedigree, should be an untouchable core piece, etc. I still remain skeptical.

No need to carry on with it. It spoke for itself.

*proceeds to fire off six furious posts*

RJ played very well in the playoffs.

He’s not an untouchable piece, by any stretch.

Oh goody, it’s that part of the day where literally every other post is from E.

You do you, E. I’ll go do something else.

E it’s usually not what you say, it’s that you say it over and over.

The idea that the Knicks’ offense might slow down in the playoffs wasn’t controversial at all. It wasn’t a remotely novel point, basically everyone agreed it was a strong possibility.

The novel point E did make was that the Knicks “don’t project to win a playoff series this year or, barring an unlikely and unforeseen event, don’t project to do so next year.”

People contested that one for sure, and it turned out to be wrong largely due to the defensive work Josh Hart and Quentin Grimes did on Donovan Mitchell.

The lack of spacing created by a non shooting center isn’t “something that didn’t work once in a particular playoff series.” It’s been plaguing NBA playoff teams since SSOL.

The three most common solutions:

1. The troublesome center spends all summer in the gym learning how to shoot.

This is by far the most attractive option, and frankly my patience is wearing a bit thin here. Anyone can get better at shooting with practice. Mitch has clearly not practiced.

2. The team develops a death lineup that they save for the playoffs.

You get the most out of Mitch for 82 games, but come the playoffs he gets the Andrew Bogut treatment. I like this option very much, too. I think Randle at the 5 is a boon-in-waiting. And it makes the most of Josh Hart’s elite rebounding ability. But we lack the stretch 4 to make this a reality.

3. The team moves on from their lane-clogging center because they know that ultimately there’s only so far you can go playing one.

It’s the last resort, but in the absence of 1 or 2, it needs to be considered.

It’s been a while since I’ve thought about it, but I’m inclined to go out on a limb and say that Isiah was a better POBO in New York than Phil was. Unlike Isiah, Phil was dealing under a CBA that didn’t allow crippling mistakes, yet he still managed to do the worst he could do. Isiah at least had a) a tangible plan, and b) his boss’s trust. Phil just had a triangle and a few rings.

The novel point E did make was that the Knicks “don’t project to win a playoff series this year or, barring an unlikely and unforeseen event, don’t project to do so next year.”

And they didn’t. Cleveland was favored to win in the first round. (And for the SRS fanatics, had a much better SRS.) We’ll see about next year.

People contested that one for sure, and it turned out to be wrong largely due to the defensive work Josh Hart and Quentin Grimes did on Donovan Mitchell.

Yes, the “defensive work done by Quentin Grimes” … who didn’t play in two of the five games and barely played in a third.

The team gave up fewer points to Cleveland in the games he didn’t play.

When we’re crediting a dude for his defense in games in which he didn’t even play, we’ve pretty much hit peak absurdity. But I’m sure you boys will carry on.

So Steve Mills is to blame for the mistakes Phil Jackson made but Scott Perry can’t blame Steve Mills for his mistakes

okay 🙂

or that Creed and Nickelback were on par with the Beatles and Stones.

no one ever sez they were as good as those pillars of music – however – they do have some pretty damn catchy tunes…kinda like Hootie and the Blowfish…shit – i’m a big pop music fan, 90% of it is dopey…

two finalists were Eyes Wide Shut and There Will Be Blood

There Will Be Blood is one of the best, going out of it’s way to make you feel uncomfortable, movies ever…capitalism versus “faith”…both at extreme levels of fanaticism…

The fact that we couldn’t get Hart for the Washington pick says a lot about its perceived value, too

Well… at the time of the trade the Blazers didn’t have their own pick this year, so in order for them to gain trade flexibility this year they needed to trade for a current pick, not a future one. (It wasn’t until a month later when they fell out of the playoff picture that the calculus changed for them, as they retained their own protected pick). So I’m not sure that there’s much indication of the perceived value of the WAS pick to be gleaned from the Hart trade.

no one ever sez they were as good as those pillars of music – however – they do have some pretty damn catchy tunes

I like that Creed tune “Can I take you higher” or whatever it’s called. So shoot me.

You’re on your own with Nickelback, though, Geo.

Lol

I am crediting Quentin Grimes with the empirical fact that he was our 2nd most used defender on Donovan Mitchell in the first round, with Josh Hart being (by far) 1st. Guess I’m getting out over my skiis again, by acknowledging this fact.

I know we lost in 5 in the first round exactly as you predicted, but I still think it’s fine to credit Quentin Grimes with being our 2nd most used defender on Donovan Mitchell.

That’s an excellent point, Donnie Walsh. I had not considered that, and it does indeed make my assertion incorrect.

If you want to credit a guy for the impact of his defense in a five game series in which he literally didn’t play two games and barely played a third .. .well, much like National Socialism, at least that’s an ethos.

The Knicks outplayed my series prediction, to be sure. Good on them; I sure enjoyed it.

The best way to counter “Moneyball” in the playoffs is to have superstars that can carry a team once the rotations shrink down to 7-8 players, with the starting 5 often playing 40 minutes. All of this other talk about which role player is better than the other role player is kind of a circle jerk to be honest.

The teams in the Finals have Jokic (13 BPM) and Butler (8.7 BPM) as anchors. Take one of those dudes and plop them onto the Knicks and we’re probably in the Finals too, even with Quentin Grimes or RJ Barrett or Mitch Robinson or whoever playing alongside them.

The Knicks’ role players are good enough. If you want to win a chip though, you need more than role players, you need some tentpole franchise players. The last ten championship teams have had one of Steph, Giannis, LeBron, or Kawhi playing for them and you’ll probably be able to add Jokic to that list soon.

I just really can’t get into the Quentin Grimes or Mitch arguments, because they’re irrelevant. We’re not going to win a title with Brunson and Randle as the centerpiece players, which is fine. We can still be good. And we could still acquire a superstar. It just seems like pointless sniping to have endless debates about whether the low-usage role players on the team are good enough or not. Next level up requires having a superstar. Failing that, we’re probably fairly close to our ceiling with this core group. Which… I mean, it’s not a terrible ceiling. I’ve just spent 20 years watching annoyingly bad players win 36 games every year. This is better. Maybe it could be more.

Creed is basically just Hootie And The Blowfish with a distortion pedal

“It’s funny how Z-Man essentially agrees with every substantive point I’ve made about the team in three years but just doesn’t want to admit it because when it’s time to criticize, I get a bit more spicy about it.”

Nah, it just shows that I’m objective and open-minded, and will consider and weigh opinions no matter how I feel personally about a given poster based on his/her/their posting persona.

And “essentially agrees with every substantive point” you’ve made is misleading, as it ignores the mountains of non-substantive points you have made over that same time period. And that’s not even addressing your tendency to bombastically regurgitate the same five or six talking points with nauseating predictability.

That you and Hubert just accused TNFH of “defecting to Team Troll” and called it “a very unfortunate development for this blog” defines you better than I ever could.

But as you just said to purported Team Troll defectee DRed, you do you!

Wonder if there’s a contrarian on heaterblogger boasting that he was right all along because they’re not favored to win the finals

and religion – hands down the best rock jesus music ever…

i don’t know the story – but, yeah, whoever did those lyrics got some preachin’ done to em…

hootie and the blowfish were more – nothing…kind of a day in the life stuff…

i have no idea what any of the nikelback songs are really about…i think they’re mostly just strings of random words put together…

What JK47 said, 100%.

Again, acting like Grimes, Hart, or Mitch are any kind of issue just seems ridiculous to me. They could absolutely be role players on a championship team and blaming them for losing to a Miami team which went on to beat the consensus title favorite, it just seems a bit myopic.

I’m seeing Grimes with a 92.2 DRTG in his series against Cleveland, which was 3rd best on the Knicks behind IQ & Deuce.

He had a 107.7 DRTG against Miami, which was best among players actually in the rotation.

Is that all him? Probably not, but the defense was very good when he was on the floor.

RJ played very well in the playoffs.

RJ had some very good games in the playoffs, but overall his numbers aren’t anything special.

I’d be curious to see his splits with the starters vs the reserves. He really struggled playing with the reserves because he can’t generate his own offense, and the 2 unit was terrible all series.

JK you’re certainly right about the tentpole superstars.

And our role players are definitely good.

But it really seems like some natural selection has taken place over the last decade with regard to role players: you need to be able to shoot, drive, and play D. If not, your last stop is the 2nd round.

When I look at our role players, I see two guys who can slot into any contender: IQ and Grimes.

When I look at Mitch, Hart, and RJ, I have a hard time seeing them playing crunch time minutes on a true contender. Four-on-five basketball is just a nonstarter when you get to a certain level.

denver at minus 9 tonight sounds about right…

as much as i’d be happy seeing the nuggets win – more than anything just want to see competitive games…

a nine point spread does not scream a competitive contest…

Again, acting like Grimes, Hart, or Mitch are any kind of issue just seems ridiculous to me. They could absolutely be role players on a championship team and blaming them for losing to a Miami team which went on to beat the consensus title favorite, it just seems a bit myopic.

i think the point is… and this is my point.. maybe E and others have another point.. is that they’re not consequential… and yet we discuss them like they are….

role players are sideshows…. the guys doing the heaviest lifting are your most important players…. and that’s generally the guys taking the most shots….. grimes is fine… but you could literally have gotten reggie bullock to do the same thing… if bullock is too expensive you go get jae crowder…. hart is in a similar area… it’s not hard to score 7 or 8 points when called upon….

and this is the crux of not trading 1st rd picks for these kinds of guys.. these guys are freely available…. and it might seem like pretty good value in isolation.. but those picks are your only opportunity to significantly move up the win curve and guys like hart and grimes and to an extent IQ .. aren’t really gonna do that….

and i still don’t know what moneyball means for basketball.. but i’m not sure if i even want to…

i think the point is… and this is my point.. maybe E and others have another point.. is that they’re not consequential… and yet we discuss them like they are….

That’s exactly my point and I too concur with JK’s note on it.

Creed is basically just Hootie And The Blowfish with a distortion pedal

Boss MT-2

Wonder if there’s a contrarian on heaterblogger boasting that he was right all along because they’re not favored to win the finals

Oh you know there are a handful of delusional Heat fans (if they even have any real fans) who put big money on the preseason title odds (on not more than a hope and a prayer) and are now pivoting their blue-checkmark Twitter bio to selling post-crypto scams to unscrupulous college males

i think looking at players as “parts” to be placed/replaced within a roster discounts the whole chemistry thing…

i still remember that vid of jalen finding out his good friend josh hart was joining the team…

also – before anyone else joins the roster – i’m asking jalen brunson if that’s what and who he wants…and thibs too of course…

Players like Grimes aren’t consequential until you see what the offense looks like when the Heat play zone and don’t cover any of your wings at the 3pt line.

There’s other 3&D players, but there aren’t enough for every playoff team to field one. If you can get one or two they make a big difference, which is why they’re so covered.

Grimes shot pretty terribly in the playoffs and made some dumb turnovers, but the Heat still kept a man on him the whole time, which opened up the offense.

I think that saying guys like Grimes, Hart, and Mitch are freely available is incorrect. They are not replacement players. Mitch is an excellent defender who holds the NBA record for fg% in a season. He is historically good at low usage scoring. After his arrival, Hart put up one of the best stretches of play by a Knick in 20 years. Grimes literally took the hardest defensive matchups in the NBA this year and posted a 60% ts% to boot.

None of these guys are waiver wire pickups.

We need to upgrade on RJ and Randle. Those are our easiest upgrades. RJ isn’t efficient and doesn’t defend. Randle doesn’t defend. If we had a true elite star in one of those space our team would be pretty interesting.

I’d say the same about the Celtics. I don’t think it’s on Time Lord or Horford or Brogdon that they lost the series.

Mitch was like our 3rd most important player this year. He’s not a role player, he is a guy who doesn’t score much. If you can move Mitch in like a package for Luka of course you do it, but a lot of you still don’t understand that he’s a very valuable player despite his significant flaws.

Mitch is an excellent defender who holds the NBA record for fg% in a season

He also led the league in ORB% this year

None of these guys are waiver wire pickups.

you can get a very credible replacement for both grimes and hart without giving up a first rd pick…. the heat basically did just that and went all the way to the finals….

i don’t think mitch is in that realm although what he does isn’t rare…. and maybe what he does should cost you a first…. but for the most part… finding a guy who shoots 3s and plays defense is not some super scarce thing in the nba anymore…. literally every playoff team has multiples of these guys….

Mitch & Hart are definitely liabilities due to their lack of shooting, but I think the answer is to surround them with more shooting rather than replace them with a shooter who is a worse player overall.

And I do think the shooting issue was exacerbated by Grimes being injured. The starting lineup works better with Grimes’s shooting and defense while Hart is viable on the 2nd unit because they get out and run more, so they don’t have to deal with a packed paint in the halfcourt.

Grimes shot pretty terribly in the playoffs and made some dumb turnovers, but the Heat still kept a man on him the whole time, which opened up the offense.

the knicks had an ortg of 108.1 against the heat… exactly what part of the offense ‘opened up’?

“I’d say the same about the Celtics. I don’t think it’s on Time Lord or Horford or Brogdon that they lost the series.”

…no more than it’s on Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson that the Heat won the series.

Boss MT-2

Ha!

I had a much cherished Boss HM-2 as a teenager that I lost somewhere over the years. I recently bought a vintage one for like a hundred bucks. That shit slaps, I used it yesterday.

My favorite new guitar toy though is my Centavo pedal, it’s the Warm Audio clone of the infamous Klon Centaur pedal, which goes for an absurd $5000 these days. I use the Centavo both in front of my amp (1964 Princeton with tuxedo face) and also my Kemper, it’s a great clean boost and I can see why people really love the Centaur. It’s like pumping Botox into your guitar tone. In a good way.

Creed, like all other terrible bands from their generation, uses Dual Rectifiers. If you really want that early 00’s Korn kind of sound, that’s what you gotta do.

I think that saying guys like Grimes, Hart, and Mitch are freely available is incorrect.

Is anyone saying that? I confess I am skipping over lots of posts these days.

Grimes is a guy I love. The other day Noble showed a comp of him and Caleb Martin and I can definitely see Q becoming that kind of guy.

Hart & Mitch… I think both of them are quite good… I just think a lot of good players have been phased out of the game in the deep end of the pool. Mitch is definitely one of them. And Miami Series Hart, i.e. the one who didn’t have to be guarded bc even his teammates knew he wasn’t going to shoot, is unfortunately another one, too.

I agree with the larger point that whether this iteration of the Knicks gives us a parade won’t hinge on the play of e.g. Quentin Grimes.

I disagree with the idea that seems to be floating around holding that all “role players” are basically interchangeable. I mean, it basically killed the Cavs that they simply could not find a 5th player to put in their lineup. They would’ve killed for Quentin Grimes. Hell, they probably would’ve been happy to accept a lightly used Evan Fournier.

The range of “role players” is broad enough that it makes sense to trade assets that have a very low probability of blossoming into higher level players for good role players. Plenty of contenders have done this. You just can’t pay a price that materially damages your ability to acquire the higher level guys, if you still need them.

The Hart trade balanced all of these considerations well. The pick we traded is highly unlikely to blossom into anything other than a role player, and giving it up barely budged our ability to make an all-in trade for a higher level player.

The widespread consensus among pundits is we’re in a very good position to make such a trade if and when the opportunity presents itself, and lest I get accused of appealing to authority I’ve outlined potential packages here a bunch of times. We’re not going to miss out on a trade opportunity because of a lack of pick quantity. Just not going to happen.

All this “the role players don’t matter” stuff flies in the face of all the time we spent killing Mike Woodson for eschewing spacing because the East was big.

Remember how much better every single Knick got when Melo was a 4 and Chris Copeland played the 5? This isn’t groundbreaking.

Step 1: Replace nonshooters with shooters
Step 2: profit

@geo:

Possibly my favorite post of yours. Evah.

“i think looking at players as “parts” to be placed/replaced within a roster discounts the whole chemistry thing…
i still remember that vid of jalen finding out his good friend josh hart was joining the team…
also – before anyone else joins the roster – i’m asking jalen brunson if that’s what and who he wants…and thibs too of course…”

Agree x 1000

the problem with hanging your hat on role players… is that it’s a crapshoot how they perform in the playoffs… that’s why they are role players…. they have microscopic usage and they rely heavily on 3s which are inherently volatile…

sometimes you get a couple months that hart gives you… sometimes that happens in the playoffs like with the heat… sometimes you get a week and isaac okoro and your band of misfits can’t hit anything….

these are not binary things… role players are not perpetually great… the perception is that they are great depending on how long the playoff runs are but those are mostly determined by how good your stars are…. this heat run notwithstanding….

every playoff team have different variations on grimes and hart.. the nuggets got bruce brown for next to nothing…. austin reaves was undrafted… rui hachimura got picked up for a 6 pack of beer…

first rd picks are next to your only opportunity to get top level talent… and yes it’s hard to land it with any one pick.. but you keep incinerating and punting and trading those picks for guys like quentin grimes and josh hart and you miss out on the dudes that will actually make a difference… like tyrese haliburton and jalen williams….

before it was just late firsts that we’re excusing… now we don’t even need lottery picks! this is insanity!

our problem is not who our 5th or 6th guys are… our problem is 2 out of our first 3 guys…. and maybe if it was just one of those opportunities that were sacrificied it’s not a big deal.. but it’s been a lot more of those and we’ve already paid a heavy price….

In games Grimes started against the Heat, he had a 114.4 ORTG. So yeah, that seems meaningfully better than 108.1.

He may only take 6 shots a game, or whatever the number is, but teams guard him closely at the 3pt line for the other 80-90 possessions he’s on the floor. If you field a player who can’t shoot, then there’s an extra guy standing in the paint stopping your stars from getting shots at the rim.

I really don’t know how this is controversial.

I dunno, I just still think it’s kind of … strange … that of Mitch, Grimes, J-Hart, and RJ, the one of the four that’s seemingly a JAG amongst a big KB faction is RJ.

That’s probably been the proverbial bug up my ass about all this the entire time. It does not compute.

The disconnect is this. An inefficient usage generator can be affirmatively bad — but only because he’s inherently good enough to get off enough shots to be bad.(*) Some people/observers will then take the next step and get wildly off course by interpreting that inefficiency as literally, essentially bad. But that’s off because those guys, because they can usage generate, the rarest of skills, are extremely close to “very or even extremely good” — and they’re way closer to very or even extremely good than the Quentin Grimes and the Josh Harts of the world. Those guys are at most “niche good.” And then when the faction yearns and beats the drum for the “niche good” guy to replace the “bad in a good way” guy, the plot is completely lost.

It’s kind of like thinking the opposite of love is hate, when the opposite of love is really indifference.

(*) Cruel to be kind?

In games Grimes started against the Heat, he had a 114.4 ORTG. So yeah, that seems meaningfully better than 108.1.

you mean the games where he scored 8 points in 48 minutes and 3 pts in 32 minutes? are we back to the frank ntilikina days where grimes magically made players like jalen brunson better through the sheer power of standing in the corner and led him to score 41 and 38 pts respectively?

and what about standing in the corner makes quentin grimes particularly better at it than someone else?

again.. this is like the frank ntilkina arguments… if you can bring up a specific example… i would love to see it… but that seems too ‘take my word for it it happened’ to my liking….

Taking shots and missing never really impressed me all that much. This harks back to the old Melo argument that ruru and others used to make.

In retrospect, Melo’s decent efficiency on high usage WAS sonewhat valuable, but here’s the thing about Melo-esque players: they don’t really win anything. If you have one, he’s usually making a max contract and taking most of the shots. You’re still going to get beat by the team that has LeBron or Jokic or Steph, players who are high volume, high efficiency.

Grimes is a guy I love. The other day Noble showed a comp of him and Caleb Martin and I can definitely see Q becoming that kind of guy.

Was this the post to which you were referring? Just checking to see whether a) you are lying about skipping over my posts or b) you actually think TNFH and I are mind-melded…

RJ is a really bad defender. Anyone who has watched him knows that and his stocks number is an excellent indication of how little athleticism he brings to the table. He was good in the playoffs on offense but he has four regular seasons where has been pretty dreadful. He’s going to get paid a fair amount of money to be a negative BPM player.

I don’t really know why he wouldn’t be the guy to focus on upgrading.

And again, I agree with JK. Unless RJ turns into a 65% ts% guy or learns how to play defense, he is never going to be worth what we are paying him.

I dunno, I just still think it’s kind of … strange … that of Mitch, Grimes, J-Hart, and RJ, the one of the four that’s seemingly a JAG amongst a big KB faction is RJ.

This is such an easy nut to crack that it’s hard for me to believe you’re genuinely confused.

We used by far the best asset we’ve had in ages in acquire RJ (the #3 overall pick), he makes by far the most money out of this group, he takes by far the most shots out of this group, and through four seasons he’s been easily the least productive out of this group.

You’re making an argument that he has the highest ceiling, and maybe you’re right, but to be credited with a high ceiling you typically have to, you know, hit the ceiling.

Until he does that he’s Just a Guy that takes a lot of shots and doesn’t make many of them, and there’s no evidence of some kind of phenomenon wherein his misses are actually beneficial: our offense was actually a bit better with him off the court this year, just as it was last year, and there’s no amount of lineup parsing you can do to argue this was a function of him being a starter. Believe me, I’ve tried.

Apropos of nothing, I went to the French Open on Sunday, which was awesome, though very hot and somewhat crowded.

It’s unbelievable they don’t use Hawkeye there. Hilarious in fact.

Also, I can’t believe the fact that there is a Miss Jowles on the scene went completely uncommented on. I need details!!! Congrats!

The thing that keeps getting lost in describing IQ and Grimes as “interchangeable role players” is that they are 23 years old!!!

Gabe Vincent will be 27 in two weeks. Max Strus is already 27. Caleb Martin will be 28 in 3 months. Duncan Robinson is already 28. Two of them weren’t even in the NBA yet when they were IQ and Grimes’ age. None of them played a consequential minute before age 25 (Mitch’s and iHart’s both just turned 25.

There are not a lot of 22-23yo role players as good and with as much potential as IQ and Grimes. And that’s where the real disconnect lies. E, for example, thinks that RJ has loads of time to develop at age 22 but has slammed a hard ceiling on Grimes because of some stupid idea about how “inefficient shot creation” ability separates the two. Others also think that both IQ and Grimes are approaching their respective ceilings because what they aren’t particularly good at yet is too hard to learn and therefore they are already who they will always be.

With Hart, he is certainly closer to being a finished product, but he is already one of the best rebounding guards of the past 20 years and is an excellent finisher and decision-maker in transition. He is a mediocre 3-pt shooter but doesn’t chuck, has a propensity to make big shots, rebounds his and other people’s misses at a high rate, and can put the clamps on guys like Spida. He’s not the Caleb Martin we’ve seen in these playoffs, but neither is Caleb Martin!

If you believe Xs and Os matter, then you understand the value of shooters.

It’s not about Grimes standing in the corner, it’s about the Heat defender also standing in the corner and not standing in the paint or doubling way off him.

We saw this play out in a lot of series this post-season. Roleplayers who can’t shoot get mothballed in the playoffs because it hurts the offense.

We saw this with Okoro in the first round, we saw the Heat comfortably run a zone and double off of RJ & Hart, Jared Vanderbilt saw his minutes drop every round despite being a very good defender.

I’m not gonna get too far into a Grimes debate again, but playing shooters against a zone isn’t an out there take.

I had a much cherished Boss HM-2 as a teenager that I lost somewhere over the years. I recently bought a vintage one for like a hundred bucks. That shit slaps, I used it yesterday.

I still use my Blues Driver, albeit the Keeley-modded one. I use it as a solo boost pedal these days.

My favorite new guitar toy though is my Centavo pedal, it’s the Warm Audio clone of the infamous Klon Centaur pedal, which goes for an absurd $5000 these days. I use the Centavo both in front of my amp (1964 Princeton with tuxedo face) and also my Kemper, it’s a great clean boost and I can see why people really love the Centaur. It’s like pumping Botox into your guitar tone. In a good way.

So I’m fronting a casual 80s/90s indie cover band here in town — think Replacements, Smiths, Guided by Voices, some powerpop/post-punk thrown in there like The Only Ones and The Nerves — and I just added a RYRA Klone to the mix. My setup is one of the following — Eastman SB59/v (Bare Knuckle humbucks), Eastman SB55dc/v (Wolfetone P90 Meaner) or my Eastman SB55/v (Lollar P90) — through a biamped AC15 (Alnico Blue) and Friedman Dirty Shirley 22w with a pair of Alnico Cream (Fane A60 and the authentic Celestion in a pair). Then I blast those amps with a Walrus Emissary or Klone, with a Blues Driver for solos and my Fairfield Meet Maude for a slight doubling delay effect when I want to sound like Bob Stinson on Little Mascara.

Am I the world’s best lead guitarist? No. But my tone is second to fuckin’ none.

Creed, like all other terrible bands from their generation, uses Dual Rectifiers. If you really want that early 00’s Korn kind of sound, that’s what you gotta do.

God, the fucking JCM900 and Dual Rectifiers of the era are responsible for so much of my tinnitus. The clean tones from those Dual Rects give me night terrors.

EB, watch me play mad libs with your logic:

In games Josh Hart played against the Heat, he had a 99 ORTG. So yeah, that seems meaningfully worse than 108.1.

He may only take 6 shots a game, or whatever the number is, but teams do not guard him closely at the 3pt line for the other 80-90 possessions he’s on the floor. If you field a player who can’t shoot, then there’s an extra guy standing in the paint stopping your stars from getting shots at the rim.

I really don’t know how this is controversial.

Also, I have a longtime bandmate who is the KING of buying great shit, selling for pennies, and then watching the price go through the fucking roof.

Bought a Klon for about $350 back in 2008, sold it on a whim for $300, now has to watch the prices go through the roof on Reverb. He also bought an Eastman SB59/v (goldburst, just like mine) for $1400, sold it for like $1100 because he’s an idiot… now they go for about $2300 new, and are still worth every penny of that.

You gotta get out and play some Eastmans. Really amazing shit for the price. I put my Les Paul up against anything Gibson makes in the Standard series. Feels like a custom shop guitar.

Josh Hart was pretty good against Miami. He was awful in 2 games but I don’t know why that shows he’s useless in the playoffs but the good games he had are irrelevant

Btw EB had to cherry pick Grimes’ three best games to get that ORtg.

Unfortunately Quentin’s bad games count, too, and his ORtg in the Miami series was 91.

At least you didn’t just make it up this time.

Also, I can’t believe the fact that there is a Miss Jowles on the scene went completely uncommented on. I need details!!! Congrats!

She done been on the scene, just also done been a complicated situation. Just graduated summa from law school (I told her if she decides to get a PhD next I am fucking DONE), studying for the bar while I play Daddy for a couple months. There are worse ways to come out of a divorce than a gorgeous blonde professional woman ten years your younger who thinks (likely due to some kind of undiagnosed brain tumor, etc.) that you are the most handsome man to ever have walked the earth. I’m playing this hand, please and thank you.

Jowles, does she want unsolicited bar studying tips from your internet friend “thenoblefacehumper?”

RJ Barrett was one of the big reasons we advanced and one of the big reasons we were even in the Heat series… certainly more than Grimes and Hart…

having that happen over a full season is a different question…. but Grimes or Hart pulling an RJ and doing what he did with 25+ usg in the playoffs is what separates guys like him vs guys Grimes and Hart… that’s why RJ gets the money because high usage and anything close to an acceptable efficiency is really rare…. and you’re forced to gamble on these guys becoming more efficient that’s how rare it is…

that’s why guys like poole… herro… and simons all got the same money RJ got… and that’s why grimes and hart will not…. and if appeals to authority are moving you… there’s no bigger appeal to authority than the market….

because they can usage generate, the rarest of skills, are extremely close to “very or even extremely good” — and they’re way closer to very or even extremely good than the Quentin Grimes and the Josh Harts of the world.

Usage has its value—especially if we want to run an offense with Grimes and Mitch—but RJ isn’t particularly close to being “very or extremely good”. He’s so inefficient that he’s not particularly close to being mediocre.

Kelly Oubre had a similar usage and efficiency as RJ, and I wouldn’t be particularly thrilled with the prospect of signing Oubre this offseason, even to the MLE.

Jordan Clarkson had a .558 TS% on a higher usage than RJ this year. Jordan Clarkson isn’t bad on offense, but he’s nowhere near a star.

Yes, high-usage scorers are the most valuable and rarest commodity, but there’s a reason why there’s so few of them—becoming an efficient, high usage scorer is very difficult.

So yes, RJ is closer to it than Grimes or Hart but that’s still not particularly close. I’m closer to the top of Mt. Everest than you (I’m in Colorado, so I’m guessing this is true) but I’m still nowhere near the summit.

And there’s no skill for RJ to fall back on if he can’t become an efficient scorer. It’s high-efficiency scorer or bust.

I liked RJs improvement inside the arc this year, but he also took major steps back in his 3pt shooting and defense.

We have seen the rump. We understand.

I am confused about the Daddy bit, are you the Aaron Eckhart in Erin Brockovich here helping out with her kid?

I don’t think it’s controversial that a high-volume, high-efficiency offensive player is more valuable than the guy who stands in the corner and shoots 3’s. The platonic ideal of RJ Barrett is a guy we could all get behind.

The problem is, the actual RJ Barrett needs to come very close to his 100 percentile outcome to be that kind of difference maker we’re talking about. Right now he looks an awful lot like off-brand Andrew Wiggins.

Like to reinforce was JK was saying it wr had Luka out there instead of Randle or RJ are we losing games because Mitch doesn’t shoot much or because our 7th man sometimes is too reluctant to shoot 3s?

I’m with you, JK. Taking lots of shots and missing them is, well, bad. I don’t think that’s closer to being superduper than taking a few shots and making them. Yeah, the first guy just has to start making his shots. As likely as the second guy getting more plays called for him (at least under Thibs…).

This doesn’t even touch on the lack of lateral movement, ball watching, and turnstile D. Which are also, um, bad.

RJ Barrett isn’t a JAG. He downright sucks.

Maybe he’ll become superduper. But it’s not on my radar at the moment.

Edit: Holy cow a lot of posts went up between JK’s first comment about this and this one. Now I’ll have to go back and read them all…

Josh Hart was pretty good against Miami.

Which one of these stats is pretty good?

.477 TS%
.238 3P%
.538 FT%

99 ORtg
6.1 Game Score

The dude was unplayable, and it was pretty obvious.

It’s not about Grimes standing in the corner, it’s about the Heat defender also standing in the corner and not standing in the paint or doubling way off him.

and so what makes Grimes standing in the corner better than someone else? this is just like the frank ntilikina arguments…. that he has some mystical energy that provides ‘spacing’ and teh magical ability to give other players all the buckets without even touching the ball….

yes spacing is good…. but spacing is not some lone power that Grimes has and no one else…

here look at this play… where Obi has this power that Grimes has too!

When hart went 14-10-9 in game 2 was that unplayable? Or 15-12-2 in game 3?

Btw EB had to cherry pick Grimes’ three best games to get that ORtg.

Unfortunately Quentin’s bad games count, too, and his ORtg in the Miami series was 91.

We were specifically talking about the offense opening up when Grimes got inserted into the starting unit. There aren’t any other games to put in the sample.

In games Josh Hart played against the Heat, he had a 99 ORTG. So yeah, that seems meaningfully worse than 108.1.

He may only take 6 shots a game, or whatever the number is, but teams do not guard him closely at the 3pt line for the other 80-90 possessions he’s on the floor. If you field a player who can’t shoot, then there’s an extra guy standing in the paint stopping your stars from getting shots at the rim.

I really don’t know how this is controversial.

I don’t disagree with any of this. Hart has a major flaw in his inability to shoot.

It’s entirely possible that his lack of shooting will prove to be too great a negative and the 1st round pick unwarranted. I was initially down on the trade, partially for this reason.

However, he’s a good wing defender, an excellent rebounder, and a solid passer who can handle the ball. These are also valuable skills.

He also replaced Deuce in the rotation who I think is a better defender, but not particularly versatile on that end while being a massive offensive liability.

At least you didn’t just make it up this time.

I have no idea why you feel it’s necessary to keep accusing me of making stuff up. It’s uncalled for.

and so what makes Grimes standing in the corner better than someone else? this is just like the frank ntilikina arguments…. that he has some mystical energy that provides ‘spacing’ and teh magical ability to give other players all the buckets without even touching the ball….

yes spacing is good…. but spacing is not some lone power that Grimes has and no one else…

here look at this play… where Obi has this power that Grimes has too

I’m not getting into this again. If that’s your take, then that’s your take

RJ Barrett was 6-24 from 3 against the cavaliers. I’m sorry, that’s absolutely unplayable. he killed our spacing. I hope we benched him against Miami

Drawing strong conclusions from thin samples is a big part of what we do around here.

I don’t think that’s closer to being superduper than taking a few shots and making them.

It’s way closer.

I don’t think we’re ever going to solve this (non)-riddle and so it will have to remain in that … cough … purgatorial state indefinitely.

(But it is worth pointing out that the guys that can’t generate offense wind up, definitionally, sloughing off offensive responsibility to their teammates but suffer no penalty in the metrics. Josh Hart, penultimate possession Game 6 — perfect example.)

I don’t think it’s controversial that a high-volume, high-efficiency offensive player is more valuable than the guy who stands in the corner and shoots 3’s. The platonic ideal of RJ Barrett is a guy we could all get behind.

Ah, but it is controversial ….

Of course, as you say, it shouldn’t be. In order to be a high-volume, high-efficiency player you first have to be, again definitionally, a high-volume player. It’s literally a prerequisite.

Seems simple, right? Apparently isn’t.

We used by far the best asset we’ve had in ages in acquire RJ (the #3 overall pick), he makes by far the most money out of this group, he takes by far the most shots out of this group, and through four seasons he’s been easily the least productive out of this group.

All that is literally irrelevant to anything I’ve talked about. Draft position???? Salary???????????

I am confused about the Daddy bit, are you the Aaron Eckhart in Erin Brockovich here helping out with her kid?

Means that during the next eight weeks, she is living on the Jowles, Inc. corporate account as she prepares for the Bar.

Jowles, does she want unsolicited bar studying tips from your internet friend “thenoblefacehumper?”

Sure! Like you, she is on the far-right side of the bell curve with regard to verbal acuity — she’s not concerned about failing, so long as she completes the prep course she paid for.

She’s signed up for unlimited pilates for the next two months so she doesn’t go insane. Plus I keep a pretty outrageous store of coffee, tea and matcha here. Big Portland vibes.

We’d all love RJ to become what, like Devin Booker or something, right? Well, RJ is miles behind where Booker was at the same point in his career.

They both came in the league at the same time, and both played heavy minutes in their first four seasons. By the time Booker’s fourth season was in the books, he had two positive BPM seasons and two seasons of TS+ over 100. RJ has never sniffed a positive BPM season, and is coming off a putrid -3.1 season. His TS+ for the season was an oof-worthy 91.

So… I mean, he’s really, really far behind where Devin Booker was, to the point where you have to kind of admit that the Devin Booker ceiling does not look real likely for him.

RJ was compared here to Kelly Oubre, and that’s kind of an unfair comparison… to Oubre. Oubre had similar usage to RJ at age 22 but was actually more efficient, had a higher BPM and higher TS+, and Oubre is still searching for his first positive BPM season.

Why do we think RJ is likely to make such a leap? It looks like a real longshot to me. He looks a LOT more like Oubre than Booker.

The dude was unplayable, and it was pretty obvious.

Playing Hart and Grimes that much cost them the series. Never should have gotten to that point.

Interesting that Isiah Hartenstein took 7 field goal attempts in 121 minutes-essentially killing the Knicks season-and just skates by with no criticism from the hip Knickerblogger posters because he’s their special floor spacing big binky.

A lot of guys could be high volume if given the chance though. Look at someone like Mikal bridges for example. Great 3 and D player but most thought he was just that. Then he goes to Brooklyn and isn’t playing with CP3 and Booker his usage shot jo and he was still very efficient and people realize he could possibly be an all star caliber player.

Compare this to RJ whose efficiency should have improved with the addition of brunson but it didn’t.

I have hope for RJ still. But high usage doesn’t mean much to me. I think alot of guys if they were drafted third and had the green light to shoot could be “high usage.”

Playing Hart and Grimes that much cost them the series. Never should have gotten to that point.

I think this would carry more weight if we didn’t lose to a team playing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus 30min a night.

We’d all love RJ to become what, like Devin Booker or something, right? Well, RJ is miles behind where Booker was at the same point in his career.

i dont think anybody expected anyhthing like booker since the beginning of his third year… the range of possible outcomes narrowed and we’re looking at something like an andrew wiggins…

and this current iteration of andrew wiggins is not bad.. he was golden state’s second most important player in their last run run.. and no he’s no star… and he’s more of a super role player but what he provides is something not many do… and it’s so valuable that it CAN lead to championships.. at least more infinitely more often than guys like otto porter provide…

and we see this ALL the time…. look what jamal murray and khris middleton do… just having usage at mediocre efficiency a lot of times come HUGE in playoff runs because you get the right matchup or they hit their 90% outcome for a month or offense starts becoming tremendously hard to generate.. then you have that third star you’re trying to trade for……

RJ Barrett outperformed Jaylen Brown this playoffs…. that’s how good he was… that’s probably not going to keep occurring but just having that as a possibility has value.. and if Randle shows up or any number of things that the Heat benefited from happen… we’re in the ECF because of him and Brunson… and yes that has way more value than guys that you can basically sign off the street..

A lot of guys could be high volume if given the chance though.

it’s really not a lot…. there’s kawhi… there’s mikal bridges… there’s giannis… middleton… and maybe a handful more…. if you have more examples where you’re ‘a lot of guys’ is coming from… then please elaborate…

it’s not non-existent but it’s not the common path to stardom which has been a blindspot on this board worshipping the likes of channing frye and fields… low usage generally.. like 80-90% of the time …. stays low usage..

If a likely comp for RJ Barrett is Andrew Wiggins, that is some extremely Just A Guy territory.

Drawing strong conclusions from thin samples is a big part of what we do around here.

The only conclusion I drew was that he wasn’t “pretty good in the miami series.”

If LRed can’t cop to that one – with those stats – he’s hopeless.

Part of Wiggins value during that run was his defense. RJ doesn’t look capable of playing that level of defense right now.

His 2pt improvement is the most valuable takeaway from this year, and I think that bodes well for the future. But his defense & 3pt shooting are pretty big concerns for me right now.

i mean that’s semantics… yea there’s nothing special about andrew wiggins .. he’s just a guy… but he’s waaaaaay more of a guy than quentin grimes or josh hart….

you can pick those guys off the street… that’s exactly what miami did…. denver plucked brown off the scrap heap… but even getting a guy like andrew wiggins doesn’t come cheap…

when people were talking about the cleveland series… wasn’t everyone putting RJ’s performance as one of the 1 or 3 key factors? was anyone thinking what would happen if quentin grimes or josh hart turned into the second best player in the series?

NO because that’s RIDICULOUS…. i mean everyone is literally thinking this but they can’t say the words because of all the decades of KB propaganda on high efficiency…. guys it’s been settled… but not how you think it has… and it’s about time we all collectively got to 2023 thinking of basketball….

usage is king….

The efficiency craze is and was ridiculous. The long-established market for basketball skills has long understood this.

I’d be happy to bet anyone that Grimes will be a far more productive player than RJ in 3 years. He can actually shoot, and has elite athleticism. He is capable of more usage, as he showed in several games this year. Just because he doesn’t shoot as much as RJ doesn’t mean he shouldn’t. In his second year he is a net plus player who has added to his game. Based on his history, I expect him to continue to add to it and adapt to what is needed – he has done that every year since getting his comeuppance in college.

Against his peers he has been excellent. He dominated the rookie/soph games. Anyone who can’t see he is likely to be better than RJ over the next decade is a victim of the endowment effect. They believe RJ can be great because…he creates shots? At terrible efficiency? With lots of TOs? And weak defense? Ok. Pretty sure Grimes could be just as shitty if he wanted.

The high efficiency low usage craze might be over, but guys who can’t throw the ball into the basket very often are still not valuable players.

RJ is on a Kelly Oubre arc, with an Andrew Wiggins ceiling, and this is the guy who we’re supposed to be fawning over? I’ve neglected to mention that he doesn’t really even play defense as well as either of those guys.

Just a guy.

Don’t overdo it, JK, you’re on a nice run — no one is “fawning” over RJ Barrett.

Pretty sure Grimes could be just as shitty if he wanted.

Those of us who watched the playoff games need no reassurance that Quentin Grimes does in fact have the capability to be shitty.

denver plucked brown off the scrap heap…

Brown had a worse regular season than Grimes and has had a better postseason than RJ by BPM & RAPTOR.

you can pick those guys off the street… that’s exactly what miami did….

Caleb Martin is the 2nd or 3rd best player on the Heat this postseason. Hes another low usage guy contributing more than RJ did.

but even getting a guy like andrew wiggins doesn’t come cheap…

Oubre and Clarkson are potentially both FAs with higher usage than Wiggins & RJ. I doubt Oubre fetches much. Clarkson probably gets a decent salary, but nothing crazy. RJ should improve passed Oubre easily, but high-usage is only so valuable with low efficiency.

because of all the decades of KB propaganda on high efficiency…. guys it’s been settled… but not how you think it has… and it’s about time we all collectively got to 2023 thinking of basketball….

Usage is viewed as a lot more valuable today than it was in the Melo era, but players still need to score somewhat efficiently.

For those of you still enraptured by your guy and biased against other guys and who might be wondering, here’s a news report of what actually happened this postseason:

RJ Barrett played pretty well, above expectations.

Josh Hart played pretty well against Cleveland, but not very well against Miami.

Quentin Grimes played poorly.

Even in our fast-moving communications era, it seems that news might be traveling slowly.

This seems… bad:

@espn_macmahon
Adam Silver on Ja Morant: “We’ve uncovered a fair amount of additional information. We probably could have brought it to a head now, but we’ve made the decision that it would be unfair to these players and these teams to announce that decision in the middle of this series.”

Usage is viewed as a lot more valuable today than it was in the Melo era,

Yeah, but see the problem is that the concept isn’t a matter of perception or popular opinion — as actually played, usage has always been valuable. Which means we had a bunch of people insistent on something silly. Which means we have to stay on the lookout for that kind of thing today, because many of them are still around.

no one’s asking you to fawn over him… i’m not… there’s no reason to go to the other extreme when this whole discussion started about grimes relative value… RJ only got mentioned in relation to that…. and yea he was more valuable in our playoff run than grimes was and that’s not some total aberration..

that’s literally it…. people have this habit of reading more into things because it’s adjacent to an argument that probably offends them…. these are the words i’m saying… nothing more … nothing less…

I’m not “fawning” over him, either. He did in fact play a zillion times better in the playoffs than Grimes did. So much better that it’s weird to even talk about them in the same breath. RJ was pretty damn good on high-ish usage; Grimes was lame on low usage. End of story.

Brown had a worse regular season than Grimes and has had a better postseason than RJ by BPM & RAPTOR.

you’re arguing a point that no one made… again… even if you think brown is worse.. that’s still 90% of Grimes value for peanuts….

Caleb Martin is the 2nd or 3rd best player on the Heat this postseason. Hes another low usage guy contributing more than RJ did.

you’re arguing a different question… but RJ’s still more valuable this postseason than Grimes right? the point is that miami got all these guys that approximate Grimes’ value or are flat out better… and were most definitely better than him in the playoffs….

I doubt Oubre fetches much. Clarkson probably gets a decent salary, but nothing crazy.

so icymi.. and you did.. they play bench minutes….

Usage is viewed as a lot more valuable today than it was in the Melo era, but players still need to score somewhat efficiently.

YES THEY DO… again.. no one is saying otherwise… but time and again the better bet is that high usage guys find some acceptable level of efficiency come playoff time.. whether offenses or so bad that they’re level of efficiency is good… or that they find their offense at the right time… it happens to guys as good as bibby or jamal murray… or even as bad as guys as literally JORDAN CLARKSON…

that’s a MUCH better bet than expecting guys like quentin grimes to all of a sudden increase their usage like trying to run a pick and roll and starting challenging jarret allen at the rim… like RJ might have only a 10% chance of playing like a third banana.. but grimes has literally a ZERO percent chance of that happening….

Ok maybe don’t focus on the “fawning” word, let’s not lose the focus here.

If RJ can play the way he did in the playoffs, that’s a whole other story. I’d like to believe RJ can do that. The other many thousands of minutes he has played while showing glacial to nonexistent growth don’t inspire lots of confidence, but hey, that would really be swell. It would change the entire conversation.

I don’t really know why we’re comparing a high usage scoring oriented player to low usage defensive oriented player and pretending that’s an apples to apples comparison. Grimes tops out at role player and is probably never getting a contract like the one RJ has. It’s kind of like comparing a slugging first baseman who strikes out a lot to a good defensive shortstop who doesn’t hit much. They’re really not similar players.

It really doesn’t matter to me which player is more useful than the other one. The more salient question is, can RJ improve enough to justify the big contract he has already received? That’s not looking like a great bet right now, unless Playoff RJ is here to stay.

I don’t personally see Grimes as ever being a plus starter in the NBA, he’s a rotation player who won’t kill you if you have to start him for a while. But Grimes doesn’t look too different to me talent-wise than some of the guys the Heat have been running out there.

I don’t really know why we’re comparing a high usage scoring oriented player to low usage defensive oriented player and pretending that’s an apples to apples comparison. Grimes tops out at role player and is probably never getting a contract like the one RJ has. It’s kind of like comparing a slugging first baseman who strikes out a lot to a good defensive shortstop who doesn’t hit much. They’re really not similar players.

“We’re” not comparing them; “they” are and it’s because some people got it in their heads during the regular season that Grimes was better than RJ because he had some kind of “hidden toolbox” just waiting to get out and once that toolbox got out, there would be some big huge leap forward and he would replace RJ and make the team way better …. and, against all odds and evidence, they haven’t been able to quit that idea.

They haven’t been able to quit it even after RJ played very well in the playoffs on high usage, and Grimes played terrible in the playoffs on low usage.

Credit to them, though; it’s almost Keyser Sose-ish that they’ve been able to convert this much bandwidth to this silly apples-to-oranges “debate.”

“RJ was pretty damn good on high-ish usage”

Uh, no. He shot 25% from three against the Cavs, and his overall FG% went DOWN to .427 against Miami even though he shot much better from three in that series. That’s below his season’s average, and I think everyone on this site agrees that RJ played like hot garbage during the regular season.

Throwing balls at the basket that don’t go in is a terrible waste of possessions. Although I guess one could argue that if RJ is on your team, Mitch might be the most valuable player because Oreb.

And comparing him to Grimes when Grimes was hurt is super. I mean sure, I give you RJ was better; but that’s like saying a ’74 Pinto is better than an MGB GT up on blocks.

Nuggets in 5

I think everyone on this site agrees that RJ played like hot garbage during the regular season.

They don’t agree with that, no. You’ve misread KB opinion.

I give you RJ was better

I’m not really sure that’s the kind of thing that needs to be bestowed, or to be subject to some formal investiture ceremony, given how blatantly obvious it is. RJ was a zillion times better. It was not close.

lol E is the KB opinion whisperer he can’t figure out what his own are until he determines that

If LRed can’t cop to that one – with those stats – he’s hopeless.

How is a guy unplayable if he scored 14 points, pulled down 10 rebound and had 9 assists? To me that’s a nice game. I would play a guy who could do that.

If you’re going to respond bloo bloo bloo his TS was x . . .it’s a fucking 6 game sample. He shot poorly from 3 point land, like RJ did the series before.

the RJ future bit is a different discussion.. and yea it’s bleak… we’ve had to aim lower and lower basically every year he’s failed to hit certain benchmarks….

but the playoffs was a sneak peek into what he’s capable of.. that just has to happen over an entire season…. and that’s a huge question mark… but if it does happen that’s actually more than what wiggins is…

but where this whole discussion originated is what people think Grimes’ impact is… and it’s really not that high…. and what he does is not all that rare…. it literally was reggie bullock’s contribution and we never talked about him ever this much….

this is frank ntilikina redux…

E on RJ sounds eerily like Strat on Phil…

Repeat the same fallacy over and over and over again until it becomes true somehow…

Miami and their demon magic hanging around so far in game one

Uh, no.

RJ had a 1.3 bpm on 25% usage… that was second on the team.. what more do you want?

TNFH gave the game away when he started talking about RJ’s draft position and salary — utter irrelevancies.

They simply don’t like Barrett come what may, and so Grimes is the indispensable “not RJ” — a composite, really. And since he’s a composite and not a real person, they attribute to and project upon him all manner of skills and traits he doesn’t possess.

And since they hate RJ, they always have to talk about Grimes.

The fact that he wears 6 and RJ wears 9 now seems almost cosmically perfect.

so icymi.. and you did.. they play bench minutes….

Clarkson started all his games. Oubre started nearly all his games.

but time and again the better bet is that high usage guys find some acceptable level of efficiency come playoff time.. whether offenses or so bad that they’re level of efficiency is good… or that they find their offense at the right time…

Caleb Martin and Bruce Brown are low usage guys who have made massive contributions. I don’t have any data on whether that’s more or less likely than high-usage guys, so I’m agnostic on the question. But I’m not convinced RJ is a guy to do that for a prolonged period. And Jamal Murray is not a reasonable comp for RJ.

RJ is a below average player by any metric—sometimes well below average—he’s easily replaceable until he shows more.

Finally some good news we can all be happy about…

Brad Stevens keeping Joe Mazzulla, calls Jaylen Brown ‘big part’ of Celtics

This is the Grimes debate, all year long:

E, all merc’d outsays:
December 29, 2022 at 12:06
a “Tier 5” (and for the record I loathe that term)

************************

Why do you loathe it so much? It’s from an outside writer of some renown and the premises and analyses he uses are very solid.

Reese Bobby, but only a little bitsays:
June 1, 2023 at 13:23
Oh, well then — I better change my current opinion of Quentin Grimes … Seth Partnow thinks something different!!

If Partnow thinks Grimes is an “indispensable supporting player” he’s full of shit. Grimes is eminently dispensable. They played three playoff games without him and didn’t miss an iota of a beat.

I still like his tiering system and the underlying definitions of the tiers, and it’s a good objective source for here. I certainly don’t agree with his placement of every player in it.

So basically like I said — like most observers he’ll say some stuff I’ll agree with and some stuff I don’t. Citing him to someone who watches virtually every game and watches every playoff possession like a hawk is kind of silly, as is citing him on a blog where a lot of us do the same.

RJ had a 1.3 bpm on 25% usage… that was second on the team.. what more do you want?

Miami left him wide open all series. He made them pay for it a lot, but shooting 40% on practice 3s doesn’t sell me on RJ having a great playoffs. If Miami bothers keeping a defender anywhere near RJ then his numbers that series look a lot worse.

Toppin and Hartenstein both had much higher playoff BPMs than RJ. So RJ was 4th with Mitch only 0.1 behind.

Playoff RAPTOR has RJ as the 2nd worst rotation player after Randle.

TNFH gave the game away when he started talking about RJ’s draft position and salary — utter irrelevancies.

The NBA has a salary cap and teams are only allocated one first round pick per year

Clarkson started all his games. Oubre started nearly all his games.

this year… they’ve been mostly bench players for the majority of their careers…

Caleb Martin and Bruce Brown are low usage guys who have made massive contributions.

Caleb Martin still has a usg of 16…. bruce brown is like the 5th best player on the team and also with a microscopic usg…

And Jamal Murray is not a reasonable comp for RJ.

what about.. jordan clarkson? check his playoff numbers….

This debate is kind of funny. I am on this site everyday and I do not think anyone has ever been half as excited about Grimes as E has been to tear him down the last six weeks. No one has ever expressed anything like an opinion that grimes is a star or a game changer or whatever. He’s great value on a rookie deal, has a nice looking stroke, and plays good defense. That’s been it all season.

Hart played out of his mind after he arrived. Literally the best run of basketball by any Knick in my adult life. No one thinks that is the real Josh Hart. We are happy it happened though because it was fucking fun.

The Playoff RJ narrative is funny. He still didn’t play much defense. And his numbers were better than his typical dreck but not remotely star quality. Again, as everyone has noted, he needs to massively improve. He needs to improve on what he did in the playoffs by a lot to be worth his contract.

I am going to meditate on all this though while watching Cody Zeller try to guard Joker. Maybe I am missing something.

Playoff RAPTOR has RJ as the 2nd worst rotation player after Randle.

so are you making the argument that RJ was the second worst rotation player then?

tell us where would you rank RJ in terms of importance…. and where would you put Grimes…. since i get accused of overselling everyone’s Grimes takes….

Miami needs to figure out some things on defense

The Legion Of Scrubs (Martin, Vincent, and Strus) were 3-18 in that half

The Legion Of Scrubs (Martin, Vincent, and Strus) were 3-18 in that half

unplayable

Really great half from Bam after a pretty disappointing series from him against Boston. If he can light up Jokic on offense Miami will be okay overall because they’ll start making some 3s at some point.

Spo might not be able to pull any more rabbits out of the ol’hat in this series…

Bam has really showed me things this playoff run. He’s been impressive. But the Doughboy is the best offensive player of the last 20 years.

Also, everyone should hire Boban’s agent and acting coach.

My point is only that RJ didn’t have the overwhelmingly good playoffs that some people think he did.

100% EB

The Martin Magic seems to be fading

The Murray Magic does not

Jokic has 5 FGA and the Nuggets are still winning easily

It’s only game 1 but the question comes to mind –

Wtf are the Miami Heat doing in the NBA Finals?

My takeaways from the Knicks playoff run have little to do with RJ or Grimes:

(1) Randle may be a massive playoff liability

(2) IQ disappeared in a concerning way

(3) Our defense can be stellar

(4) We could probably use more shooters

Denver up over 20 without Jokic even bothering to shoot might be a bad omen for Miami

My point is only that RJ didn’t have the overwhelmingly good playoffs that some people think he did.

again… who is saying that he had ‘overwhelmingly’ good playoffs? do you care to misquote that so we can all see how much i’m overrating rj? do you care to answer the other question? was RJ the 2nd or 3rd most valuable to our whole playoff run?

yes? ok i agree! is he some superstar now? who the fuck said that?

is he more valuable than grimes this playoffs? hell yes! is that illustrative of his value as a player? yes!

Heat alive?

I think the Heat have proved you can’t count them out pretty much ever. Been remarkably resilient.

is he more valuable than grimes this playoffs? hell yes! is that illustrative of his value as a player? yes!

I’m fine with the first assertion, but want to note the sizable difference in their defense.

I don’t understand how you’re coming to the second conclusion, nor do I understand the relevance to evaluating RJ.

Heat alive?

Their end of game comebacks are scary. I think Denver can hold them off, but I’ve said that about the Heat opponent every single round.

‘Denver up over 20 without Jokic even bothering to shoot might be a bad omen for Miami’

And yet he scored 27. He’s so much fun to watch.

Heat wound up outshooting Denver from 3 somehow and still lost, idk how to feel about this game if I’m a Miami fan. Bam took 25 shots and didn’t get a single FT? JImmy was a total no-show and they really didn’t lose by much.

The one lesson you’d think Thibs would learn from Miami is that he needs to have more guys ready to play. Miami pulls these Heywood Highsmith characters out of nowhere

It took me a while to get through this thread. A lot of it is about Grimes and the negative argument seems to be that he’s just a guy and you can get players like him easily. The Heat and Reggie Bullock are cited as evidence of getting guys easily. I have two comments. One, the Heat are clearly an anomaly in how they built their team. I’m sure if others could do what they did with undrafted players they would. Usually undrafted players don’t work out like they just did for the Heat. Two, Bullock was actually drafted around where Grimes was. But he was nowhere near as good in his first few seasons. Look at his second (23 year old) season compared to Grimes second (22 year old) season. There is no comparison. Grimes is much, much better.

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=bullore01&p1yrfrom=2015&p1yrto=2015&player_id2=grimequ01&p2yrfrom=2023&p2yrto=2023

I don’t understand how you’re coming to the second conclusion, nor do I understand the relevance to evaluating RJ.

there’s probably 10,000 words on it in this thread alone… but in case it’s not apparent.. usage is valuable! yes… MORE valuable than space and defense… or 3 and D … 3 and D has been a way to make your role players valuable… before they were shooting midrange shots… now they’re hitting 3s…

high efficiency is a RESULT of that…. they dont’ MAKE anything happen… the people who make things happen ARE VALUABLE…. to the point where you gamble on guys like RJ even tho they are nominally terrible because they don’t use their usage that well..

because they are capable of putting together 11 games like they have and be your second most valuable player some percentage of the time… guys like grimes… likely won’t ever ever ever be that….. but at the very least… he has absolutely done NONE of that so far… and if you dont’ believe me then do you think he’s going to do ANYTHING off the dribble and create offense anywhere near what RJ was doing?

that’s an emphatic no… and so tell me …. before everyone keeps saying that nobody thinks Grimes is more than what he really is despite everyone telling me differently….

what do you think Grimes is? where is he in the pecking order? how much usage should he have?

Look at his second (23 year old) season compared to Grimes second (22 year old) season. There is no comparison. Grimes is much, much better.

grimes is absolutely not much much better… there’s no way… i posted the numbers from Bullock’s time here and Grimes current numbers.. they are identifical….

you might think grimes WILL be better… that’s a different question and frankly the evidence for that is quite slim if we’re looking at essentially 3pt specialists being anything more than that…

but that is conjecture and speculation and maaybe you might end up right.. but that’s not the question….

bullock and grimes during their knicks tenure… are essentially the same player… producing the exact same thing under the same coach with largely the same lineup… that’s unequivocally unarguably true….

grimes is absolutely not much much better… there’s no way… i posted the numbers from Bullock’s time here and Grimes current numbers.. they are identifical….

I am comparing their second years (Bullock was not playing for us then), not their Knick performance. You can look at the link. And yes, my point is Grimes will get better and might end up very good. Of course there are no guarantees.

Grimes put up a -0.1 obpm to Bullock’s -0.9, that’s not a giant difference but it’s definitely a difference. Grimes got to the rim more and finished better. And he certainly flashed more playmaking ability than Bullock ever showed. He needs to really improve his handle if he ever wants to take advantage of it but his ceiling is certainly higher than Reggie Bullock 2.0. You know who else had almost identical numbers to Grimes? Mikal Bridges at age 23. Does Grimes end up closer to Bullock than Bridges? Probably but I think writing Grimes off as doomed to waiver-wire caliber play is short-sighted.

but want to note the sizable difference in their defense.

There is no “sizable difference” in their defense. Grimes missed three games in the Cavs series and the defense didn’t miss a beat.

This is another mainly psychological thing — Grimes has to be a plus defender to make even a modicum of sense — and so he is.(*)

I want to be clear, though — Grimes is a pretty good on the ball defender. But he’s being theorized and projected on that side of the ball, too. The team can play perfectly fine defense without him, and did in the biggest games of the year.

(*) And of course on the flip side, there’s a massive psychological need for RJ to suck on defense, given the a priori hatred — and so he does.

“There is no “sizable difference” in their defense. Grimes missed three games in the Cavs series and the defense didn’t miss a beat.

This is another mainly psychological thing — Grimes has to be a plus defender to make even a modicum of sense — and so he is.(*)

I want to be clear, though — Grimes is a pretty good on the ball defender. But he’s being theorized and projected on that side of the ball, too. The team can play perfectly fine defense without him, and did in the biggest games of the year.

(*) And of course on the flip side, there’s a massive psychological need for RJ to suck on defense, given the a priori hatred — and so he does.”

This is made-up horseshit.

The “Reggie Bullock Objection” remains strong and pure, it seems.

Which remains bizarre; Bullock and Grimes are basically clones of each other. And of course — and this is the most important point of all — their common ancestor is the coach, who simply cannot and will not function without major, significant roles for his safe, comforting, low-ceiling hustlebunnies.

All of which was first-guessed at the trade deadline and then later, and then reached its predictable nadir in the whiffing away of the winnable Heat series.

(djphan is hitting this issue out of the stadium by the way.)

Comparing RJ to Grimes directly is silly. They are different players with different roles. RJ’s role is somewhat more important than Grimes’ and he is paid accordingly. However, a) RJ has consistently sucked badly in his role for 4 straight years…every advanced metric confirms that; b) Grimes has been pretty good in his role…every advanced metric also confirms that.

RJ is getting paid a lot of money to suck in his role. Hopefully he will be less sucky going forward…he played pretty well in the playoffs so there’s hope. But overall he’s been replacement-level bad and his playoff numbers are those of a replacement-level player on a hot streak, not a budding star. See: Cam Reddish’s playoff numbers.

There is also really no comparision between RJ and Wiggins. Wiggins came into the league as an elite above-the-rim athlete, while RJ seems totally devoid of fast-twitch muscle. After one very nice (but still offensively mediocre) playoff run, Wiggins returned to his shitty offensive self, putting up the same shitty offensive numbers he always has. But at least he has the athleticism to play excellent defense, especially against elite wings. RJ simply does not. And here’s the kicker: RJ is getting paid more than Wiggins!! And Wiggins isn’t even worth what HE is getting paid!!

With Grimes, you don’t really have to hope nearly as much. He’s a fine young 3-and-D starting 2 as is, and he is only 23, works hard, and has the attacking closeouts gift that Katz talked about. I don’t really get why E felt compelled to make up a bunch of bullshit about how he is unlikely to add to his game, maybe he has a personal grudge against him or something. It’s pretty telling that when his idol Seth Parnow contradicts him, all of a sudden, E throws Parnow under the bus…that’s like Trump-level shit right there…he’s smart when he agrees with me but dumb when he doesn’t. Please.

Comparing RJ to Grimes directly is silly. They are different players with different roles. RJ’s role is somewhat more important than Grimes’ and he is paid accordingly.

Yes, everyone in the know gets this by now. Distribute the memo KB-wide and we’re probably done with this topic.

it’s almost Keyser Sose-ish

Hey, don’t misspell his name or he’ll hunt you down, and all your family and friends too. Are we friends? 😀 It’s Soze with a Z, and that’s where i get my name from, Cyber… Soze! 😉 😛

I think the Heat have proved you can’t count them out pretty much ever. Been remarkably resilient.

Indeed, but i hoped it was another resilient team to reach the finals… 🙁

Bullock never hit the 500 minute mark in a season until he was 26 years old, his fifth year in the league. It’s a weak comparison, except to those whose irrational preconceived notions it serves.

And here’s the kicker: RJ is getting paid more than Wiggins!! And Wiggins isn’t even worth what HE is getting paid!!

Wasn’t aware of Wiggins new contract, it seems reasonable for what he means to the Warriors. RJ will probably get a little less than Wiggins because he’ll have to be All-NBA, All-Star or All-Defense to receive the incentives.

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