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71 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.01.17)”
On Fournier, and Rose.
We already know what Rose and Fournier can do.
In the limited minutes we saw Rose play, the lack of production was mostly noise and rust from injuries. He can still play 10-15 effective minutes when he’s back in the flow.
In the minutes we saw Fournier play, he was scoring less as a starter because we had Brunson, Randle, and RJ ahead of him as scoring options. So of course he was going to do less. He can still play the same.
We are not talking about starting. We know the defensive limitations Fournier and minutes limitations of Rose. That’s why they are key players. We are talking about adding a desperately needed scorer to the bench unit for 10-15 minutes until we get one via trade, draft, free agency etc..
Forget the 2022/23 boxscore metrics. They are garbage as an indication of what they can do if playing regularly in a role off the bench. Both can still play as well as they did last year.
What happened to the Suns? Three games under 500. Lost by 30 to the Grizz. I guess they need Jae back.
I guess Paul and Booker were out. Still, disaster of a season so far.
Just to clarify, I’m not talking about a 11-12 man rotation. I’m talking about adding 1 of them to the bench unit. As it is now, Deuce is barely playing. So it’s more like a 8 1/2 man rotation.
“So it’s more like a 8 1/2 man rotation.”
Yes, Thibs is losing games for us. If a game goes into OT, it’s all over because our guys will just be too tired to finish.
So DRose is still good and can give us 10/15 minutes like in 2020-21 but Thibs, a coach that loves and trusts him, decides to start giving him DNP-CDs and hurt the Knicks chances of winning games? I don’t think i believe in this.
It’s even worse, Owen, they were 16-7 on Dec 4, and since then they went 5-17 (.227) !? 😮
It’s not that simple, Early Bird. They traded the #13 pick in a stacked draft to create the $8MM in cap space for the gamble.
Rose is completely cooked, done, kaput. Fournier could give the 2nd unit offense and that should be tried.
I can’t help but notice the ven diagram of people complaining about the lack of production from our bench and the people who constantly defend Leon Rose’s penchant for incinerating draft picks & cap space is pretty much two circles on top of each other.
Still looking an awful lot like purgatory. There’s a bit of a Invisible Harding effect and a bit of a Moneyball effect that’s distorting the view for some, but yeah — pretty much still textbook purgatory.
“It’s not that simple, Early Bird. They traded the #13 pick in a stacked draft to create the $8MM in cap space for the gamble.”
Wasn’t Team “Pessimism” solemnly assured that it was a “weak draft,” though?
As to Hartenstein’s “High BPM,” I mean, yeah — usual suspects. TS% illusion, low usage, deployment, small sample size. How many times does this need to happen before it hits home?
Stefan Bondy
@SBondyNYDN
Scottie Barnes said he had a mismatch against RJ Barrett:
“I felt like with me being taller, with my size, I was going to be able to get a good look around the rim every single time.”
No lies detected.
We are undersized at 2 positions and Grimes is not big either. It was obvious Barnes could get a good shot almost any time he wanted. He could back RJ down and shoot over him.
We need a taller longer starting two way SF (ahem). Then we can either put RJ on the bench or slide him into Grime’s spot depending on who develops into the better two way player over time.
What was that “You is not him” clip about with Barnes and Grimes.
Barnes does make people look small. He is long as hell.
What made Hart’s BPM, TS%, etc. somewhat intriguing is he actually wasn’t “low-usage” at all. He scored about 17 PTS/36 with 5 AST/36 with the Clippers. He didn’t DeAndre Jordan his way to nice looking numbers.
We could theoretically very much use a guy who can score 17 PTS/36 with sky-high efficiency and make plays for others off the bench. We just…don’t seem to have that guy, for whatever reason.
>So DRose is still good and can give us 10/15 minutes like in 2020-21 but Thibs, a coach that loves and trusts him, decides to start giving him DNP-CDs and hurt the Knicks chances of winning games? I don’t think i believe in this.<
These lineup questions can't be analyzed without looking at all the combinations.
He wanted to upgrade the defense and shorten the rotation. He took Fournier, Rose, and Cam out of the lineup and added in Grimes (who was initially hurt and getting the starting spot eventually anyway), and took a look at Deuce.
Well, now we've gotten a good look at the new 2nd unit and we can see Deuce, Hart, and Obi do not bring enough shot creation to the table even with Quick and one of either RJ or Brunson playing extra minutes with the bench. I think the slow reduction in Deuce's minutes means Thibs understands the bench unit is flawed.
The question is what is the correct adjustment.
There isn't a lack of scoring power or depth on the bench. All of Rose, Fournier, and Cam can score if you given them the ball and all are good enough for a second unit.
I think Thibs knows Rose is fragile and would rather save him for later in the season and the playoffs. But there aren't many great choices. He either has to run Brunson/RJ ragged playing too many bench minutes, use Rose instead of Deuce and sacrifice a little defense, add back Fournier and make it 10 men, or we have to make a move at the trade deadline.
“Barnes does make people look small. He is long as hell.”
He’s also mediocre as hell
(And his taunting of the crowd after making 2 FT’s was also kind of idiotic considering it just tied the game with 12 seconds left and the Knicks would have the final possession)
“Barnes does make people look small. He is long as hell.”
“He’s also mediocre as hell”
I agree. But that’s the point.
He scored 26 points with a TS% of 59.9% last night. Even with the extra OT minutes, he still scored more and was more efficient than usual, but it wasn’t just random noise because some extra shots went in. You could see we had no one that could stop him. He was too big and strong.
Yeah, Barnes has seemed to be a mixed bag when I have watched him. He is strange. Sometimes I have watched him and thought that he looks like a slightly upgraded version of vaunted super athletic combo forwards that busted, like a Rondae Hollis Jefferson or Stanley Johnson. Other times, I get a totally different vibe and kind of feel like he looks like the second coming of Scottie Pippen, not in his skill or style of play necessarily but just in his build and movement.
Seems like a good piece to me but not sure where the ceiling is. He definitely makes RJ and Grimes look small. No doubt about that.
Here is one way to streghthen the starting line up and fix the bench.
Package ~4 of our weak 1st round picks, Cam and Rose’s expiring for Mr. All-NBA Defensive 3&D proven winner named Mikal Bridges and move RJ to the bench with IQ, Hart, Obi and Fournier. Talent wise this will be the best bench in the league over the next two seasons. Having two snipers on on each side of the floor and two lock down defenders will improve the starting unit net rating, as well.
Make them an offer they can not refuse & without this years’ deep playoff run revenue, – they may even welcome shedding salary and starting a semi rebuild.
It makes sense that Bridges would become available and that the Suns would be interested in a bag of picks for him.
Our surplus picks don’t move the needle in a trade for a player of D Mitchell’s caliber, but they’re a good bounty for someone like Bridges or Anunoby.
Obi, the Dallas pick (no longer looking spicy), the Washington pick, and the Bucks pick is a package I can live with giving up for an elite supporting player.
The Knicks are somehow 27th in the league in offensive eFG%, and 5th in offensive rating. That seems almost impossible, yet here we are.
Their approach to offense looks pretty ugly at times, but it works: they don’t get a lot of easy looks, because they lack elite shot creation and they’re not a great passing team, but they do manage to get SOME sort of shot up most of the time, and then they’re very good at rebounding their many misses.
It ain’t pretty, but it’s working.
I mean, Mikal Bridges would be a good get but I also think we shouldn’t make any big trades like that this season.
I believe Rose is fully cooked. If he had anything left in the tank, there is no way Thibs wouldn’t use him.
I don’t know. I’m a Thibs guy for sure but the slowly lessening the minutes for the bench is getting ridiculous. I know they aren’t giving us much but this whole season turned around when we started playing McBride instead of Rose and the bench was giving us a bit more when they had more minutes.
And by all means….play Fournier! We need his scoring! There is no way giving him 10 minutes to bolster the bench and hit some threes would hurt our defense that much. If he can knock down a few threes and allow our bench players to play more minutes collectively, that will more than offset whatever we lose on defense playing him. Even if McBride can’t score, if Founier can pick up the slack a bit, then McBride can play a few more minutes. This means more rest for BRunson. Same with Obi. Or try Fournier and Sims with no Obi for a game and see if the results are better. Isntead he’s just tightening the minutes on the bench players more and more. We’re effectively a 6 man rotation right now. That is not sustainable.
Fournier is a good vet and a good soldier. There doesn’t appear to be an imminent trade involving him where we’re keeping him on wraps so he doesn’t get hurt.
I get not playing Rose. I get not playing Cam. I do not get not giving Evan 10 minutes a game off the bench.
Suns are 3-13 when Booker sits, 18-11 when he’s active.
50-win pace with, 15-win pace without.
Exactly. We lead the league in ORB and 2nd Chance PPG.
Book adds 35 wins by himself !? 😮
Everybody knows i’m not a Fournier fan, but i agree that he should play. He’s not good as a starter, but if he embraces the role he probably can be a very good backup.
Seems that way 🙂
Never been a Booker stan but they do miss him a lot it appears.
Well, when you’ve got $61M of your payroll in street clothes, and replacing a top-15 all-timer and a current All-NBA wing with Duane Washington, Jr., Ish Wainwright and post-ACL-tear Dario Saric, you can’t expect much.
(Oh, and since they jettisoned Crowder, he hasn’t played a minute.)
Barnes was pretty quiet after RJ blew by then dunked all over him to tie the game.
Twitter very anxious to see the 2 minute report
Barnes was pretty quiet after RJ blew by then dunked all over him to tie the game.
Facts! – Barnes fouled him too. That should have been a historic game winning play.
Less excited about Fournier as part of the bench mob, only because his defense is just so very atrocious. Although by the eye test it looks like he’s trying harder these days (I loved him clawing away at Giannis, the French poodle pawing at the bull mastiff). But it would really have to be situational, where we could hide him on someone fairly pointless. Otherwise keep him in his chair and frighten Deuce into shooting more with some idle (or otherwise) threat. I’d rather Miles was 0-5 per game than 0-1. At least then we’d have real data. This Frank impersonation is just irritating.
Katz with another KB narrative in The Athletic, on playing six guys.
On the minutes per argument we’ve been having, he has this: “Since Dec. 21, Randle and Brunson are first and third in the NBA, respectively, in minutes per game.”
Lots of other interesting thoughts, although no strong statements. The usual trade speculation, no recommendations.
Like I said last night, it’s hard to gauge where we truly are relative to the rest of the league when a significant portion of our success has stemmed from using a trick that’s available to everyone but used by very few because the drawbacks are well known.
Stating where Randle and Barrett rank in YTD minutes played isn’t an effective response because we’re only talking about the last 6 weeks.
Still complaining that our GM doesn’t have a time machine?
The Kemba Walker trade happened before the Noel/Burks trade. Again, needed a time machine to know not to clear $13M for Brunson.
Here’s a fun factoid from Hollinger related to chip or nothing:
“Here’s the thing, though: Historically, the No. 3 seed has been the great dividing line between contender legitimacy and also-ran status. There’s a 97 percent chance the eventual champion will be a top-three seed and a 3 percent chance it will be somebody else. Only one team seeded lower than third has won the championship since 1980 (the 1995 Houston Rockets). If you extend that history back to “ever,” you can get to two teams in 76 years.”
Makes me ponder three things: 1) maybe ‘championship or death’ isn’t such a great philosophy; 2) wondering if this alters anyone’s opinion as to when to push all your chips in; and 3) maybe it’s not a bad thing to just enjoy competent play…
Also, 4) apparently purgatory is very much bigger than previously thought.
YMMV
Fournier is shooting 31% from 3 and 42% from 2. It’s not just his defense.
Re #1: I can’t think of a single poster, even E, who espouses a championship or death mindset. And that goes back the entire decade plus that I’ve been here. Not one single guy.
As for #s 2 & 3, I think everyone is enjoying this team. The reason you don’t push all your chips in for competent play is because you should be able to clear that low bar without doing so.
It’s like saying “pizza is good, so why not pay $10,000 for a slice?”
I don’t really know what championship or death means.
I certainly have favored making building a championship contender our only priority. By tanking when appropriate. By developing young players. By accumulating assets. By not extending RJ Barrett.
Given how bad we were, it was an obvious strategy.
But I don’t think anyone other than E wants to tear down the current team and reverse course completely, if that is what championship or bust means.
weird but the l2m report is just a cherubic sketch of scott foster playing a harp
“Championship or bust” is a fraud.
They aren’t a contender now. They don’t project to win a playoff series this year or, barring an unlikely and unforeseen event, don’t project to do so next year.
TNFH has said this a million times so I’ll make it a million and one. Tell me when they’re going to win a playoff series. A single, solitary playoff series.
In terms of a teardown, I’d more likely try normalizing things first. No more “we HAVE to guard the paint,” no more building a not-ready-for-prime-time offense by grabbing offensive rebounds nobody else cares about, no more playing guys huge minutes, no more clogged lane. Try that, see where things are, then we can reconsider.
The “let’s just squeeze out an illusory playoff appearance through Thibs’s tweaking” thing has really run its course. That observation’s a far cry from “championship or bust.”
NBA to their refs:
https://media.tenor.com/CnJwaDeVfZsAAAAd/i-have-never-done-anything-wrong-ever-in-my-life.gif
I think there’s a pretty decent chance (~40%) we win a playoff series if we’re up against the bucks or sixers, which requires us getting any of the 4, 5, or 6 seeds. Eminently doable imo.
We have a top 5 offense and top 10 defense in the league. Can’t imagine why Thibs wants his players doing those things.
Funny that folks took exception to my tongue-in-cheek comment rather than addressing Hollinger’s utterly depressing point related to who’s really a ‘contender.’ Sorry y’all got your dander up.
And yeah, Hubie, we’re in total agreement on the pushing in the chips thing. Which is why I’m fine with standing pat at the trade deadline, given that all the options bandied about are either switching a flawed player for another player with different flaws or trading picks for flawed players who will take time from our current flawed players (or never see the floor if Thibs is Thibs).
I’m not entirely sure I agree with Unbearable’s point if we stay right where we are across the board. But if our big two continue to (over)perform, our good players (Mitch, Grimes) continue their good play, AND if some of our underperformers start to show up (Obi writ large, Deuce’s shot, Good Barrett makes an extended appearance), that would be a team that could rattle some cages.
Isn’t Hollinger’s point kind of self-evident? Or at least “unsurprising”?
It’s very hard to build a contender in the NBA. The Knicks have not built one. Maybe that’s seen as some kind of massive criticism of them on KB or something — it kinda seems to be — but it’s simple reality.
They aren’t a bad team, certainly, and they clearly have some good players. That’s still a *long* way from contention. Purgatorial teams have good players — that’s why they’re in purgatory rather than the bottom of the league.
But there’s not enough potential for internal growth to reach contender status. Randle and Brunson are in their primes and aren’t contender 1s anyway; Barrett, Quickley, Grimes, just not enough there (*); no real hope outside pure luck for getting a #1 star in the draft because their good players will always make them too good to get a blue-chip draft pick.
So not really a contender, no projectable path to get there through current roster/assets/philosophy. That’s textbook purgatory.
“Contender,” “purgatory,” etc. These are descriptive terms, not terms of advocacy.
(*) Still small hope for an RJ breakout, but there’s no way it can be counted on for planning, prediction purposes.
Raven, I think Hollinger’s point about contenders is important, but it is based on defining “contention” as winning the chip. I love the Knicks and my wife and I would watch every game-even if they weren’t going to make the playoffs, let alone win the chip. From a subjective pov, my goal is to watch competitive basketball played the right way (which of course means the way I think it should be played). In that regard, sometimes the Knicks are fun to watch and other times excruciating, notwithstanding the decent record. I simply hope they continue drafting good players, developing them, perhaps signing a proper free agent, making strides on the fundamentals, thus limiting the excruciating. That may result in purgatory to some, but it would meet my needs and expectations as a rather old fanboy. Is this too much to ask?
Offensive rebounds no one else cares about? Lol, that’s a new one to me.
But when you say that do you mean the other team doesn’t care that we get offensive rebounds? Cause I’m pretty sure that’s no the case.
I bet if you ask any coach who coaches a poor offensive rebounding team they would say they wished their team got more offensive rebounds. I mean what team wouldn’t want to extend their offensive possession?
Some teams might not prioritize getting offensive rebounds so they can get back on defense. Thibs himself did this in Boston to get success.
But our team is doing just fine on defense.
Thibs is just playing to his team’s strengths, which is what he should do. Mitch is a monster rebounder on offense and so is Randle. Why would thibs tell them to not go for them when he knows they have a good chance of getting them?
But sure, no one else cares about them. I’m sure no team in the playoffs wants to grab offensive rebounds.
(1) Nobody thinks we’re a title contender today. Nobody is upset that you say that.
(2) We do have an avenue to contention, either trading 8 1sts for a star or two OR using thise picks to find good players.
(3) If we do nothing but keep our current 9 man rotation, we have 3-5 year window to find a 3rd star.
Thibs has been the coach for three seasons and they only made the playoffs once with this season not even over. So it’s really stupid to say “wake me up when they win a playoff series.” They’re 0 for one. It’s not like this team has gone out I. The first round four or five years in a row.
“But when you say that do you mean the other team doesn’t care that we get offensive rebounds? Cause I’m pretty sure that’s no the case.”
/touches finger to nose vigorously.
The other teams don’t care about Thibs picking up the dimes and nickels they leave behind, no. They care about winning in the playoffs, not whether the Knicks happen to slap a random L on them on a random Wednesday night in January through an outlier style.
Compare and contrast, for example, the Hawks preparation for NYK in the empty building regular season with their preparation for the playoff games. Night and day, right?
When teams play the Knicks with something on the line they will negate all these fluky things — and likely more.
The real issue we have going forward—emphasis on forward—will be what to do with RJ & Grimes if neither of them figure out how to defend the lengthy SFs we’ve struggled with so far.
Ideally one of them figures that out, but if we’re thinking longterm championship then that’s the biggest roster weakness (outside Randle being a coin flip every year).
Yeah I love the idea that we have no way to get a star or another guy that is on the level of Randle and Brunson. We totally have ways to do that. Not every GM is Danny Ainge. Ainge had the perfect situation bc he already got so much for Gobert he could either trade Mitchell and really do a full year down or he could keep Mitchell, be a playoff team and build around him bc he got so many picks for gobert. Not every GM trading a star will have that much leverage.
EB, they don’t need a “third star,” they need a lead star who can anchor a championship contender.
“Yeah I love the idea that we have no way to get a star or another guy that is on the level of Randle and Brunson.”
Randle/Brunson/Clone of Randle wouldn’t be a contender.
What do people suppose the team that gets the 1 pick next summer would say if the Knicks called them and said, “We’ll give you Randle and Brunson for the 1”?
They’d laugh, right? Well, that there is the problem.
If we trade 8 1sts and all our swaps, then we can get a tier A1+++ star. Does that phrasing make it clearer?
I call bullshit that getting another player of Brunson and Randle’s caliber wouldn’t make us contenders. We’re three games out of third place in the east right now. Brunson and Randle are both playing like top 25 players this season. Brunson’s ball management in late game situations has helped us out immensely. Another dude of their caliber at the 3 (assuming this player moved RJ to the bench and we didn’t give up IQ to get them) would give us maybe the best top 7 in the league.
We’d be in the mid aughts Pistons mold. That type of team may not have a superstar but they can absolutely win a championship.
I mean are Tatum and Brown legit superstars like say peak Lebron or Jokic/Giannis/Doncic are?
Brunson had already come up with big shots in close games to win it for us. He’s missed from free throws too but gonna let you in on a little secret. Lebron missed free throws in close games that cost his team too.
The Katz article is great and touches on basically everything discussed today. The bottom line is it’s rank unsustainable to have what basically amounts to a six man rotation. Something’s gotta give.
That could be a trade, the re-emergence of Obi and/or Hart, the un-icing of Rose and/or Fournier, or some combination of all of that. There are tradeoffs in every approach and we’ll have to find the ones we’re most comfortable with.
My preference is to try to set Obi and Hart up for more success. Look, I’m admittedly not the best with the Xs and Os, but these guys were both moderate-usage, high-efficiency players less than a year ago. The exact type of players we now desperately need to make our bench units a least passable offensively.
I don’t think their respective abilities to play well on offense disappeared this past summer. Spam pick-and-rolls with Obi, get Hart working in the post, whatever it might be. We’ve got proof of concept of these guys as scorers, albeit limited ones. We should be trying harder to unlock the talent already on the toster.
Not a foul eh
https://twitter.com/nba_newyork/status/1615480156679962630?s=46&t=RWuRxLlpc4wNVuALcbF0og
If that’s the justification of the no call on RJ, then LeBron James should never get an and 1 call.
It’s strange. Seems that a foul depends on the body composition of the foulee to a much greater degree than I realized.
The no call on Barrett is what Randle is always arguing about- guys hit him all the time but he just powers through so refs deem it incidental contact.
Offseason drills for RJ & Randle should just be selling contact
To win a chip you need one of the best 5 or 6 players in the game. And to get one of those you either have to get extraordinarily lucky or just be the Lakers.
I don’t fault the Knicks for not getting lucky. I fault them for all the times they forfeited the chance to get lucky and were not properly compensated for it.
And they always do it for the same reason: to get to the middle.
The best things you can say about Rose vis-a-vis his predecessors are:
1) when he gives up a chance to get lucky, at least it’s the 19th pick instead of the second.
2) he was actually able to get to the middle.
But far from “championship or bust,” our philosophy is just “please don’t be stupid” and “play your cards well.”
I think the other solution to the 2nd unit offensive woes is to unleash Grimes & Quickley.
Let them go out there and chuck like they’re Steph & Klay. I’ll take the high variance even if it’s still inefficient. Can’t be worse than what they’re throwing up now.
The refs saved RJ from having to miss a game-winning free throw. We should all just thank them and move on.
It’s kind of amazing how many problems a guy like Anunoby would solve.
Lol donnie wins again
You say stupid. I say innovative use of assets that other GMs lack the balls to make because there’s a high chance they’ll be gone before a future pick pays off.
Meanwhile, the Raptors lost to the Giannis-less and Middleton-less Bucks. Some fun facts:
-on the second game of a B2B after a grueling overtime game vs. the Knicks, they played essentially a 7-man rotation (Juancho played 8 minutes.) Boucher played 14 minutes so it might as well have been a 6-man rotation. Sound familiar?
-FVV went off for 39 points
-Barnes had 11 points on 14 shots and was 1-3 from the line
-OG was 2-12 and was 0-4 from 3
-The Raps outrebounded the Bucks 47-40, including 20 offensive rebounds!
-No one on the Bucks played more than 33 minutes (Jrue).
Jokic had 36 points on 14 shots. That is nuts. And a triple double of course. Just insane. Only ten fts.