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95 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.04.19)”
We knew it wouldn’t be easy…
Before the game this was some kind of “scheduled loss”, but the way it unraveled was a bit disappointing.
This time we weren’t able to take the punches and react, instead we stayed down and raised the white flag at halftime, very unusual.
There are a lot of thing to be worried about, starting with our coaching staff’s maligned inability to try different things when the “cozy” ones don’t work, but I want to be positive: before the games we would have been happy to go home 1-1, now we’re going home 1-1 and I will put my worries aside for the next post game (if needed).
We have a couple of days to rest, the MSG crowd will be a factor, and next game starts 0-0*.
Thoughts:
JB.
He took too many “isolation threes” in the first half (1-7) and I’m old school, I’d rather have my PG set the teammates up at the start of games and then take care of the scoring.
Maybe yesterday everybody’s shot would be off, but we’ll never know, because some of them didn’t have a chance to go into a rhythm (Grimes and IQ 0-2 combined in the 1st half, JB, Randle and Barrett 11-31).
Randle.
15-40 combined. Shades of the Atlanta’s series. You have to know when it’s time to stop headbutting the walls and try something different. He didn’t.
Silver lining: I’m expecting a roaring Game 3 after Allen’s murder try**.
Barrett.
6-25 combined. If you need someone to take some offensive burden on JB and Randle bad nights don’t count on him. He’s playing too much and now we’re under the playoffs spotlight, the mainstream media are noticing his “play”…
Grimes.
Remember the infamous 1-shot game vs the Wolves? After that he started shooting and creating more and the results were good. Now he’s reverted back to the shy guy who’s afraid to shoot and defers to the big boys. 6 sheepish shots in 2 games (49 minutes) won’t cut it.
Robinson.
His offensive paucity is remarkable. In two games he missed 3 easy bank shots under the rim (two of them didn’t touch the rim) and in Year-5 I’m starting to think that he’ll never get better.
Quickley.
We can hope his drunken/drugged state is over after a game and a half. He put some balls in the baskets in garbage time, maybe it’s enough to wake him up…
Hart.
Clearly hobbled, a shadow of the hero of Game-1. He did play the entire 2nd quarter (34-17 CLE) and his statline for it is: 1 Dreb 1 TO, 1Foul. He shouldn’t have played at all.
Hartenstein.
Fantastic in Game-1, unable to avoid the shipwreck in Game-2.
Toppin.
Far from the worst on the floor, another decent offensive game but 0 (zero) boards in 15 minutes won’t play against Allen and Mobley.
McBride.
Garland killed us, are we really sure he wasn’t worth a longest try?
Thibs.
We didn’t see our usual identity in this game. He was totally unable to find something to stem the tide. Now he has two days to find something new, because the feeling is that the Cavs have found ways to stop our offense.
* I vividly remember the “Memorial Day Massacre”, also known as “The Scott Wedman Game” (Game-1 of the 1985 Finals, Boston 148 Lakers 114) and how that series ended.
** It was completely unnecessary. They were up by 23 with 2 minutes to go, the game is over, the angle on the play was bad and he was late. You don’t try to block that shot unless you want to send a message. I hope it was received in the right way.
for a game with a fairly low bar, that was impressively painful. there’s a measure of how hopeless a game is, wire to wire, that uses the distribution of estimated win probability for the losing team throughout the game. last night we were a 3.0. that was literally tied for our lowest all season (as the losing team) with the loss to the nets back on November 9th. it’s just been incredibly rare for us to be a wire to wire loser like that, so it sucks to do it in a playoff game. especially because it wasn’t really about getting spanked by the luck fairy. literally every player had a rough game. well, sorry. not you deuce.
We took a beating, yeah, but “no one thought the series would end in 4” like Randle said afterwards. It’s just one game, and unless it gets into our players heads, we can be happy we win one in Cleveland. Now the next game is very important, if we win, we’ll be on top again and having a chance to go 3-1 in the 2nd home game. That will mess with the Cavs’ players heads, i’m sure. So let’s win the next one and keep grinding. I still think this goes to game 7.
Oof.
We punched 1st, and they came back with a bat. I hate that we lost, but I still feel good about this series. Even though we got smacked around, this series makes my inner 90’s Knicks fan happy. It’s a true slugfest. The Knicks natural physicality vs the Cavs forced physicality. And that forced physicality will make them go over the top, as it did on that Jarrett Allen flagrant. Even though I spent the entire 1st half screaming “TOO MUCH ONE ON ONE! MOVE THE FUCKIN BALL!”, I gotta give respect to the Cavs’ defense. They really brought it last night, and we couldn’t muster enough to punch back. I was really impressed.
I thought the refs called a few ticky-tack fouls on Mitch and Hartenstein early and that helped the Cavs ALOT. That and Garland reintroducing himself. Sheesh! That kid killed us. The only thing I’m mad about is we let the game get out of hand early and never recovered. Friday will be different Quickley has to be more aggressive, and Thibs has gotta scheme some shots for Grimes. If we don’t take both games at home, I will be disappointed- but I don’t expect it to be easy.
Much like Julius intimated after the game, I can’t wait til Friday
I’m going to hold off even thinking this series has a “theme” until they play at least one game in MSG. The “pre-theme,” such as it was, changed from Game 1 to Game 2, and it can change back in Game 3.
That said, there are some familiar storm clouds on the horizon that have to dissipate and I’m not entirely sure simply playing at home will do it — though I hope they will.(*)
1. The Knicks and their coaching staff didn’t adjust to what happened in Game 1. The Cavaliers and their coaching staff did. We’ve seen this movie way too many times. The Knicks’ top-heavy, iso-heavy offense is very easy to defend when you have time and incentive to prepare for it. I’m not sure how that changes, but I’m not coaching the team and the coaches are paid to change it, or at least to adapt it.
2. Julius Randle has 41 points on 40 field goal attempts and is shooting 37.5% from the field. Whatever the reasons for it, assuming there are any other than “the other team tries, too,” he needs to do way better.
3. The Knicks simply do not have (or, fingers crossed, have not yet displayed) anything close to enough pop at the 2/3 position. Tom Thibodeau’s hand-selected starting two guard has made one basket in 49 minutes and that basket was an uncalled, unintended banked-in 3. Josh Hart had a pretty good Game 1; last night he was a minus-29 in 27 minutes, which seems impossible, and shot the ball three times. RJ Barrett has been putrid. Immanuel Quickley has somehow managed to be even more putrid. This is simply nowhere near the kind of production you need from your wings. Again, there’s still time, but there are also storm clouds.
(*) They didn’t when the ATL series returned back to MSG for Game 5.
Everybody gets Fs, except for Deuce who in one brilliant defensive defensive possession shutdown Darius Garland. He played no other possessions.
(1) WTF Quickley?
(2) RJ, he is who we thought he was
(3) Grimes needs to play when we’re down 20. Give him the ball every play.
(4) Time to open up the offense & also use Deuce
The Knicks and their coaching staff didnât adjust to what happened in Game 1. The Cavaliers and their coaching staff did. Weâve seen this movie way too many times.
When you lose a game at home that you were favoured to win, you make adjustments. When you win a game on the road that you were favoured to lose…not so much.
Didn’t think this level of precision was necessary, but OK — the Knicks didn’t adjust to the Cavs’ adjustments, either in anticipation or in-game.(*)
Kind of “to-MAY-toe, to-MAH-toe” from my vantage point, but others may differ.
(*) The other teams and coaching staffs aren’t going to just stay stagnant in the playoffs and not make adjustments to what you’re doing. This seems axiomatic.
The Cavs threw 2 players at Brunson every time he crossed mid court. Itâs up to Thibs to figure that out, we didnât get one open look off of those situations.
Obviously not fun and there are definite themes emerging that need to get nipped in the bud or we’re in real trouble.
But I’m gonna throw some swifty optimism in this thread early.
It was one horrific quarter. One where it felt like we got called for a lot of fouls while Cleveland mauled our players. That one quarter did us in. And we were really only down by like 8 or 10 with a few minutes left when it got out of hand.
Yes, their defensive intensity went up several notches and we weren’t prepared for it. It also felt like when we tried to match it in the second quarter, we got called for fouls. And a good chunk of our turnovers were due to a lack of focus. Probably from the lack of calls, the other team gettting every call and the increased defensive pressure.
The big thing Thibs needs to adjust is figuring out how to counter the Cavs full court pressure and double teaming Brunson so high up the court. We actually got some fast break points on that a few times when he got through the full court pressure. But the ball movement was abysmal.
And we gotta get IQ and Grimes involved and RJ needs to play less minutes, shoot way less shots and focus just on defense, rebounding and playmaking.
And yeah, I said don’t play Hart if he’s hurt or play him less. Honestly, this was my fear. I think Deuce should be given a shot. He’s been in the rotation for most of the season. He started hitting 3 pointers and scoring in the second half of the season and he’s a top level defender we can throw at either of their guards. Especially if Hart is still not 100 percent, give Deuce a chance here. Give him some minutes, slide Grimes over to the 3 and reduce RJ’s minutes.
Interesting graphic https://twitter.com/LevAkabas/status/1648681176096292865?t=-GqnTnIxmt3yUTg_uVx4nQ&s=09
it’s a continuation of the themes from game 1… our offense has not been good… we only won because we were pretty good defensively AND the cavs were pretty terrible on the other end missing a lot of easy shots…
we’re good at making difficult shots and we’ve been making them all year… but they haven’t been quite this difficult quite so often…. Mobley has definitely been bothering Randle… even when he’s hot for that first quarter in game 1 … shooting over those long arms of Mobley is not something he’s used to seeing…. and Brunson is taking a lot more no pass possessions than usual… i’m less worried about Brunson.. and i think we should take the Doncic/last year’s playoff Brunson offense and basically just run it entirely through him and make everyone else catch and shoot… but the fact that no one else can find any offense in the half court is probably not going to be solved this series….
the other side of the ball is probably where we need to outperform… and we did in game 1…. but Garland waking up is not a good development and there’s also no easy answers there…. i was pretty happy about Bickerstaff going to the Osman on Brunson thing again esp since he wasn’t doing what he was being brought in to do which was hit 3s… but sad that he kind of figured that out eventually… hiding Brunson on Levert is much less doable out of the Osman/Okoro/Levert trio…
much like the atlanta series… there’s really not much you can do here… we could go 5-out to try it out.. but we never did that in the regular season so it’s kind of stupid to be experimenting in the playoffs…. you’re going to see for better or worse.. everything that we’ve seen in the regular season… and hopefully that’s good enough.. we’ll just have to see….
“thereâs really not much you can do here”
But we could give Deuce more minutes. He has the potential to disrupt Garland or Mitchell. You’re probably right that the way we win this is with defense and rebounding/hustle. So why not give more minutes to a guy who plays defense (and also potentially can sink an open 3…potentially lol). Especially if Hart is hobbled a bit.
i dont think Deuce is the answer…. in a game where offense is so hard to find you can’t really play someone who’s not dependable or else Randle and Brunson are going to have a much tougher time playing 4v5…. and we scored 90 pts as is… playing Deuce is a desperation move and we haven’t actually been all that bad on defense to be doing that….
but this is supposedly Quickley’s wheelhouse tho isn’t it? he’s supposed to be our best perimeter defender… we’ve cited all these defensive metrics throughout the year that he locks all these guys up… so this should be his opportunity to show it… i’ve always been dubious about that but if it’s true then he’s gotta be matched up against Garland a lot more than he has….
we were the 3rd ranked offense and we’re playing like the worst.. that’s the problem…. but that problem is not easy to fix since the guy’s who have been carrying our offense hasn’t played like they’re used to… that could change once we’re at home…
you dont’ have to respond to every loss or any adjustment through drastic measures…. it’s a series… and tactical solutions can sometimes happen if you have a coach creative enough.. but most of the time you’re just relying on your players playing better…
so yea the answer here is that we gotta play better…. the series is tied so the sky isn’t falling… it actually just begun….
This feels like a 7-game series to me. I am expecting a split of these next two games. The teams seem close enough that they should adjust/re-adjust between games, and the level of desperation that the Cavs played with last night doesn’t seem sustainable game over game. They knew that if they lost that game, the series was probably over, and they played like it. We played like a team that had already accomplished its mission. That’s why I’m worried that the Knicks won’t feel the level of desperation the Cavs played with until game 4.
“The Cavs threw 2 players at Brunson every time he crossed mid court. Itâs up to Thibs to figure that out, we didnât get one open look off of those situations.”
This felt like the main problem that Thibs didn’t solve. It completely disrupted our offense and led to poor shots/hasty turnovers. We saw it now and again during the regular season, so it should come as no big surprise. Not sure the solution but thank goodness I’m not paid to solve it.
On the other hand, not giving Deuce minutes when we’re clearly falling apart due to two short guards dominating the court is borderline criminal.
z-man…that is what i am thinking here…game 2 at home …back against the wall…series over if you go down 0-2…and quite frankly, their starting 5 is as good or better than ours…they should win….the way we lost is not becoming but it has happened to others much better than us and it counts just the same as a 1 pointer….let’s see what happens on Friday….we are not a dominant home team and they were pretty good on the road…so I see another split as well..
One thing that really impressed me was the way Donovan Mitchell deferred to his teammates and took a back seat. On the other hand, Brunson did the opposite, he tried to do too much.
As much as Garland killed us, it was really Caris LeVert who made the most difference, and Spida’s deference was a big part of that. Kudos to him.
but this is supposedly Quickleyâs wheelhouse tho isnât it?
Yeah, IQ needs to wake the F up QUICKLEY or we’re going to lose this series. He’s our 3rd/4th best player and plays such a huge role for us and he’s done NOTHING so far.
You are probably right about Deuce. If IQ can do what he’s supposed to do, he shouldn’t be needed.
Another thing is that the Cavs benched Okoro and went with essentially a 7-man rotation, with 5 guys playing more than 35 minutes each and LeVert playing a game-high 40. That’s a game 7 mindset right there. Not sure if that will work to win 2 games in a Friday night-Sunday matinee scenario. And if the Knicks can win game 3 with the Cavs playing those kinds of minutes, our depth might be a deciding factor in game 4.
Playing Hartenstein more might be an adjustment. You can give him the ball out of the double and better things will happen than when you give Mitch the ball at the top of the key.
You don’t necessarily want a huge departure from what got you here, but the Knicks personnel are capable of throwing a lot of different offensive looks out there and they need that. It’s just like throwing a change up once in awhile to keep them off balance.
Sidenote:
The Cavs should really look into trading for Burks this offseason. Maybe he’s too close to falling off a cliff but he’d be a great fit for what they need now.
I agree with DJphan, itâs our offense that was the problem. We were on a pace to score in the low eighties for the game until we had a a spurt at the end of the game when it was basically garbage time. Maybe Thibs should consider starting Quickley instead of Grimes or at least giving him a lot of minutes along side Brunson. Defense should be ok because both Quickley and Grimes can defend, but now if they double team Brunson, Quickley will be freer to go to work offensively.
I think a lot of IQs defensive value comes from rotational help more than staying in front of his man. He often knows where the ball is going ahead of time and you see him challenging in the paint vertically much more than any non-big on the Knicks.
He’s usually very good at navigating screens when he does play POA.
His best stretch might’ve come when he played next to Deuce, which let IQ roam a bit more because Deuce just shuts down so many PGs. As good as Hart is on defense, he’s not Deuce against small guards.
I like the idea of staring IQ and playing Hartenstein more. Hartenstein can hit a jumper…even a 3 sometimes. Mitch can’t really do anything on offense but dunks and lobs. Hartenstein also has the better passing.
I don’t know if I would start IQ in game 3. We should not be in panic mode. But giving IQ and Hart more minutes and cutting back in RJ’s minutes seems a natural adjustment to start. But, of course, a lot of this depends on IQ actually playing up to his potential because so far he’s been worse than RJ.
The one thing the Cav’s cannot change is their lack of depth. If we can exploit that by defensive physicality, get IQ to actually contribute on both sides of the ball, and somehow (and I don’t know how…this is where Thibs has got to come thru) not lose the mental battle where we lose focus and lose our team-first fight, I think we will win the round. But I think all 3 have to happen, and most certainly the 3rd.
A couple of things about the first two games. Neither Randle nor Mitch look quite right. Randle carried us in the 1st Q of Game 1 but has gone 9/32 since and that includes going 2/2 in garbage time last night. Mitch was great in game 1 but he missed a dunk and missed an easy layup last night while only grabbing 1 Oreb. I don’t know if Randle is still feeling the effects of the late season injury or if Mitch is banged up like usual but they need to get right.
RJ has been terrible and in a just world would have been benched already. He’s 4/21, outside of garbage time last night, including 1/8 from 3, grabbed 7 total rebounds in 2 games, and has played atrocious defense. I don’t know why RJ is Thib’s guy but he needs to get over it.
Quick looks shellshocked and I have no idea what’s going on with him.
Most of us said it yesterday before the game that Hart should sit and get healthy for game 3. He’s our best 3 point shooter, one of the only guys on the team who can run a fast break, and far and away our best wing defender. Instead, he played 26 ineffectual minutes. Hopefully, there’s enough of a break before game 3 for him to get healthy.
If this goes south, then Thibs falls into Buck Showalter territory as someone who initiates a disciplined and winning environment, but is not the right leader to manage playoff performance.
Jazzfunk, yes and no. We’re underdogs in this series, which means we’re not supposed to win it. So if we do, that could be a sign that Thibs IS in fact the right leader to manage playoff performance.
If we don’t, that’s harder to parse. Most of us are under the impression that in-game shifts are not one of Thibs’ strong suits. So it’ll boil down to whether he can do game-to-game changes and responses that deal with the things the Cavs are throwing at them while unlocking some of our more troubled players on offense.
They still might not work, just because the Cavs are pretty good. But I’m going to want to see the body of work through the series, and whether there’s any imaginative game planning or if it’s just ‘try harder’ before I judge Thibs.
The teams that win in the playoffs are almost always the teams that have the best players. No need to over-think it. Brunson hit a lot of hard shots in game one, he missed them in game two. The Cavs missed a bunch of easy shots in game one. None of this has anything to do with the coaches.
I thought defensively we were fine. Cavs scored a bunch of our turnovers (unsual for us), they shot the three way better than their average and Knicks still only gave up 107 points.
That 34 point 2nd quarter hurt like it did because offensively we coudn’t get a shot off. Cavs defense is legit they took every player off their game last night.
Offensively, Thibs is limited with respect to playoff chess adjustments and this was clearly on display last night.
Additionally, we have a few dumbos that have a high propencity to make dumbo plays with the ball in their hands. Add playoff intensity combined with facing the best defensive team in the league and it blows up very quickly like it did in that 2nd quarter.
The problem with the game was not that we lost. Had we lost a tight game, we’d be coming out of Cleveland reasonably happy with the split. It’s that we were thoroughly trashed and could not compete in a game with the Cavs going all out. That’s confidence sapping.
The flip side is the typical nonsensical variance that comes with shooting a lot of 3s. They made more of theirs than we would expect on average and we made less that we would expect on average. That wasn’t all defense. Some of it is reversible.
So go home, heal up more (Randle and Hart), make some adjustments and hold down home court in game 3. That will change all the momentum back.
“Additionally, we have a few dumbos that have a high propencity to make dumbo plays with the ball in their hands. Add playoff intensity combined with facing the best defensive team in the league and it blows up very quickly like it did in that 2nd quarter.”
100% agree on all points.
I said at the outset that IQ would be the key. He’s been terrible. I think we actually stole game 1 b/c the Cavs were coming back, and we (luckily) made three heady plays at the end (that we don’t usually make). Kudos to us. Bottom line: We split. That’s great. But everyone on the team is waiting for IQ’s fifteen points and for the second unit to get out and run a bit with Obi. There was a short period of that in game 1, but last night — zip. We need those easy points and to push the pace.
Also, I disagree that the coach has nothing to do here. It’s not just the better players who win IMO. Part of coaching is getting the guys to forget mistakes and focus on what got us here. I didn’t get the impression in G2 that IQ had forgotten about his mess in G1. Now it’s doubly important for Thibs to get him right.
Likewise, Thibs must manage the bodies to avoid injuries. Obviously, (again) he was horrible with that, and we almost lost Randle. In fact, Randle had hurt his elbow earlier as well. Julius prolly won’t talk about it, but I suspect he’s banged up more than we want. All that could have been avoided if Thibs had (prudently) thrown in the towel.
JHart is the same thing. Why is he playing down 26 late in the fourth. Same with Brunson who was beaten down multiple times. Breen mentioned they needed/wanted conditioning, but that’s a crock. Our guys just want to “be brave” and stupidly so. It’s up to the coach to be the parent. If the Cavs starters want to bruise until the last second (dirty or no), then let Deuce and Sims smack them back a bit. And, more importantly, let IQ and Grimes shoot every time down the court to find some range. I mean WTF, Thibs.
This — “The problem with the game was not that we lost. Had we lost a tight game, weâd be coming out of Cleveland reasonably happy with the split. Itâs that we were thoroughly trashed and could not compete in a game with the Cavs going all out. Thatâs confidence sapping.”
“If this goes south, then Thibs falls into Buck Showalter territory as someone who initiates a disciplined and winning environment, but is not the right leader to manage playoff performance.”
It means what we all already knew to begin with.
At a minimum this teams needs to replace RJ in the starting lineup with a solid two way player – preferably a two way all star caliber player. You can’t have that big a negative in your starting lineup and expect to compete with the best teams in the NBA during the playoffs where weaknesses are targeted and magnified. You especially can’t have that on a team without one of the super elite players. It’s this simple. He’s a bad basketball player, is making very little progress, and his mere presence on the court makes it tougher for the other guys. He’s this year’s Elfrid Payton. Replace him with a Brunson equivalent or better and you get a huge jump.
I see the pros and cons of laying blame at Thibsâs feet, especially considering some of the talent he has to manage and Hartâs injury. It could be that, for one game, the players themselves lost their edge. Our limited playoff history with Thibs as head coach has not been great. The team looked unsettled last night, quitting on several defensive possessions. I hope we bounce back in game 3, but the Knicks depth should be a strength to leverage not a burden to carry. Thibs always seems to be fighting his impulse to play his pre-selected guys in the face of in-game realities.
This — “the Knicks depth should be a strength to leverage not a burden to carry.”
Exactly, Thibs always makes it seem like it’s a problem. Use the bench in spots. I loved seeing him put Deuce on Garland to close that one time, but why not do it again and get Garland thinking a bit. I agree also with an earlier poster who said Mitch looks a bit off. If that’s true, get Sims in there just for a sequence or two to bang bodies on purpose, *especially* if the Cavs are playing 90s ball. Of course, neither Deuce nor Sims can score, but no one else was scoring anyway.
Plus, as someone posted last night, Randle, Brunson, jHart aren’t improving “conditioning” by failing to stop the Cavs for minutes at a time. Rather preserve their bodies and get them pissed off while watching the drubbing.
Our offense & defense were a problem last night. Cavs put up a 117.9 ORtg (BK-Ref), that’s slightly better than the Knicks season average. In other words, not good.
The reason they scored 107pts is the pace is 5 possessions slower than the slower team in the regular seasonâthe Cavs. Knicks were 25th in pace.
Our ORtg is more concerning, a feeble 99.2, but it’s not like our defense was stopping them either.
Interesting Katz piece again. Basically the Cav’s (#1) D totally flummoxed the Knicks. One take-away:
“Cleveland scored 27 points off turnovers just in the first half. For perspective, the Knicks allowed that many points off turnovers throughout an entire game only once all regular season, and it was during an early-November loss when the Boston Celtics made 27 3-pointers against them.”
Ultimately we need to shoot better. For how amazing the Cavs played, they only scored 107 points. We need to shoot and MAKE threes. The Cavs made 2x the number of threes we did (14 vs 7) , even though we shot roughly the same # of threes. In the 2 games the Cavs have beaten us in this season, they have destroyed us in terms of relative number of threes made. If we want to win, we need to keep that even. That means our guards defending the three point line better .. and it means our shooters actually making shots. For all of Julius’ faults, he was actually 3 of 7 from three, and the only Knick in the last two games, that’s made more than 1 three in a game. No Knick, not named Randle, has made more than 1 three in each of the last 2 games, that needs to change or we’re not winning.
“For how amazing the Cavs played, they only scored 107 points.” As noted earlier, that was due to pace, not performance. The Cavs destroyed the Knicks on offense. It is hard to have a better game on offense in the playoffs than the Cavs did in Game 2.
Someone on Twitter pointed out the defense probably looks much better if it weren’t for the TO/fastbreaks. So I retract my earlier assetion, the defense is kinda also an offensive issue
When a team wins game 1 on the road it usually loses game 2, and more often than not still wins the series. True or false?
The Twitter link I posted above has a cool graphic on underdog wins in game 1, maps out how the whole series plays out. The team that loses their 1st home game is now 12-1 in game 2 after last night.
I can’t remember the exact numbers, but Breen noted a couple times in Game 1 that the Cavs had scored an inordinately small number of points off the Knick turnovers that they caused.
That obviously changed last night.
It’s not that we lost, it’s how we lost. The terrible second quarter was one thing but completely giving up in the second half was another. We had our heads down absolutely defeated for most of the second half. We never even made a run. We just hung our heads and took it. Cleveland didn’t even have to play hard in the second half. We just rolled over.
That was a nauseating game. The team had no fight. We knew Cleveland would come out swinging but I did not expect us to pack it in the second they landed a punch.
It was a terrible loss, but even though the Knicks are doomed, I really don’t think a 1-1 series means anything, even with a terrible Game 2. Now, if they get their ass kicked in Game 3, I’ll change that stance. But 1-1 is 1-1, no matter the score of Game 2. How it was won is basically meaningless until it isn’t, ya know? If there’s carryover, then it isn’t meaningless. If there isn’t, then it was meaningless. So we won’t know anything until Game 3.
Yeah I’ve seen 7 game series where each team blows out the other team at least once. I can’t remember which finals it was but a few years back there was one (maybe Boston Lakers the second time?) where almost every game was a 15 point or more win for one of the teams until game 7.
It was really just one HORRIBLE quarter. And I maintain the officials certainly helped The Cavs a little bit in that quarter.
Ben R, I disagree. They tried to fight back in the second half. I know they never really went on a run or whatever, but they were trying to cut the lead and scoring better. It’s just every time they did, Cleveland had an answer to keep the lead in that 20 point range.
When a team wins game 1 on the road it usually loses game 2, and more often than not still wins the series. True or false?
very, very false
(this shouldn’t be unexpected. the home team here is the favorite and still has home court advantage. that’s exactly how it’s gone when a series is tied 1-1. i don’t know the number offhand based on the order of road team wins, but i know enough to say it has not favored the road team for certain).
okay i ran the numbers. since 1984 there have been 87 seven game playoff series in the 2-2-1-1-1 format where the visiting team specifically won game 1 and lost game 2. the visiting team is 33-54 in those series (if they won game 2 instead of game 1 they are 25-49).
Unless they were totally off, Wally and Alan were saying the team that wins game one goes on to win the series ~ 70% of the time. If they(we) lose game 2, it seems like the number would take a hit but not as bad as those 7 games stats above, no?
Unless they were totally off, Wally and Alan were saying the team that wins game one goes on to win the series ~ 70% of the time. If they(we) lose game 2, it seems like the number would take a hit but not as bad as those 7 games stats above, no?
sure, the team that wins game 1 in fact has won 75% of 7 game series since 1984. but think about it. that’s sullied by the many huge 1-8 and 2-7 home favorites that win most games. in fact, home teams have won 86% of series after winning game 1, while road teams have only won 48% (you can get slightly over 50% if you change the time period used, but not higher).
This math you speak of, it makes me sad.
I’m good with the 48% chances. And now let’s win game 3 to improve our chances. đ
How come the home team still has home court advantage if there’s 3 games to play at MSG and only 2 in Cleveland?
because they actually don’t. no refunds tho.
What are the %s for the 4 v 5 seed series, though. Those matchups are, theoretically, evenly matched. Does winning game 1 on the road tend to have a significant impact for the 5 seed?
So they did suspend Draymond? I thought people were all freaking out over them not suspending him.
Re-posting myself from the last thread đ
“With an unusually very late decision (20 minutes before midnight ET) the League suspended Green for 1 game, citing âan history of unsportsmanlike actsâ as a motivation and barely anticipating the Kingsâ announcement that Sabonis is questionable for Game 3 (it would have been embarrassing to have the âperpetratorâ play and the âvictimâ sidelined).
Iâm more and more convinced that the NBA is using Shams, Woj and a few others as âbarometerâ.
They supply them some unofficial âbreaking newsâ about their decisions, then watch the media, teams and fans reaction and later take the official decision, sometimes backtracking (as in this instance) if the public outcry is loud.”
I think your theory seems spot on, Max!
LOL! đ
Today they announce COTY winner (Thibs didn’t get as much love as two years ago),
tomorrow will be 6MOTY, with IQ as the favourite (votes were submitted before the playoffs, so his latest eggs can’t scare voters away).
I can’t find the date for MIP, where JB is one of the three candidates.
I don’t put a whole lot of stock into game 1 wins specifically when it comes to determining the outcome of a series. To me, the beauty of a 7-game series between NBA teams is that it favors the better team, whether they have home court advantage or not. The team that wins game 1 in a reasonably competitive matchup is not necessarily the better team, especially if that team is the lower seed.
A fair criticism of a Thibs team is that they somewhat overachieve during the regular season but don’t have another level to go to in the playoffs. The Cavs are probably a bit better than their record and we are probably worse than ours. Things are close enough for this to be a competitive series, an I think there’s a good cance it wlll go 7, but they had the edge coming in and now still have the edge, regardless of home court.
We definitely have a theoretical depth advantage, but that might not play out if the Cavs shorten their rotation like they did last night and the mandatory rest day between games allows them to do so. I think we can all agree that LeVert is a better player right now than RJ. If you think of him as a nominal starter, then for 36 minutes the Cavs have 5 better “starters minutes” players than we do, possibly to a man, but certainly as a unit. And that’s true no matter what we do with the rotation. It’s tough to make up for that in 12 minutes, especially when our bench is not playing all that well either.
But hey, that sort of should be the case. And in fact, all four teams above us in the standings are “all-in” teams. The Cavs shot their wad on Spida, so they theoretically aren’t even competing with us, and it they are, that suggests that this season was a disaster for them.
I won’t go as far as to say that we’re playing with house money…anything less than a 6-game loss would be very dissatisfying but still not a referendum on the future. The idea for me was to be at least *competitive* with the all-in teams BEFORE going all-in. Beating any of the top-4, all of whom have at least one max player and some with two or three, is a lot to ask given that we still have way more unspent capital than they do.
They did suspend him. I see my comment crossed Maxâs. And Max, I too think your theory is spot on. I suspect they didnât want to suspend Green because Golden State is such a media draw, but the concluded they had to.
I also am glad that we seem to be in better shape than the Heat, Hawks, Bulls, Raptors, and Wizards, all of whom have one or two max players and a less impressive stash of future picks than we do.
The Wizards just “released” their GM.
Ja is out tonight for Game 2 against the Lakers.
The Detroit pick and the Washington pick are fugazi.
We have zero picks in the upcoming draft.
We made zero picks in the last draft.
We donât have a stash of draft picks, let alone an impressive one.
@Z-Man
I agree with your take, we can’t forget we’re the underdog in this series (ehi, we didn’t do the survey this year! đ ) and we exceeded preseason’s expectations with our record.
There are small flaws, average flaws and RJ Barrett to overcome but for the first time in a long time we can really be a trade away from contention if the league keeps this kind of parity (my kingdom for a SF!).
I’m curious what Washington does. If they flip to tanking, that pick is likely gone. But maybe the new GM won’t suck and can actually get them to the playoffs.
The Detroit pick is highly likely to convey.
Every rotation player, plus the next guys up, are all returning next year. We don’t need a draft pick. It’d be helpful in a number of ways, but it’s not the end of the world.
“We donât have a stash of draft picks, let alone an impressive one.”
Which team ahead of us in the EC standings has a better pick stash? Which EC play-in teams have a better pick stash than us?
Your takes on the DET and WAS picks are biased, no use even debating them. We also have MIL 2025 top-5 protected and the DAL pick top-10 protected for the next 2 years. We have all of our own firsts from this point forward.
Of the teams with the top 15 records, where would that draft pick cache rank?
Itâs actually bc we got crushed and the Cavs did not seem to be going all out that is confidence sapping.
Donavon Mitchell straight up coasted.
“Iâm curious what Washington does. If they flip to tanking, that pick is likely gone. ”
It’s protected top 12 in 2024, top 10 in 2025, top-8 in 2026. Sure, they might decide to tank for 3 years straight and get worse every year, but would you bet on the pick not conveying?
Giannis is out for tonight’s game.
Why limit it to the top 15 teams?
“Itâs actually bc we got crushed and the Cavs did not seem to be going all out that is confidence sapping.
Donavon Mitchell straight up coasted.”
I can’t agree with that. IMO they were playing at about as intense a level as is humanly possible in the first half when they blew us out.
IMO Mitchell wasn’t coasting. He was taking the shots we gave him and the rest of the time he was feeding other players that were hitting shots from everywhere. He had 13 assists. Had they been bricking, he may have gotten more aggressive, but there was no need to try to create something if they were scoring.
I tend to compare apples to apples.
Those 7 game series numbers don’t surprise me. Right now, we have home court advantage, if we can finish them off in 6. You won’t find very many road game 7 wins.
WAS tanks the first 2 years and is probably still bad in year 3. Plus we end up in another Dallas situation if they’re close that year.
With the heavy load of minutes the Cavs starters are having to play the longer this series goes the advantage goes to the Knicks.
While I hope the Knicks sweep this weekend and will be pissed if they don’t the series being tied at 2-2 will probably still favor the Knicks.
Thanks pt and EB. I thought the numbers were more in our favor. 52% to win game 3 (EBâs linked infographic) isnât all that impressive.
Everything I have read or heard about Washington indicates that their plan is to keep Beal, who has a no trade clause, and resign Kuzma and KP. It is very unlikely the pick does not convey if those three are healthy in any given year.
Our pick stash certainly doesnât measure up to the pick stash of some teams, for example OKC. But itâs still pretty good for being fifth in the East. Picks can be used to trade for players or to draft players. We got Hart by trading a pick, and we got a worthwhile player for where our pick was. And the Hart trade didnât hamper our ability to trade for a star because such a trade would be after the season, when the picks from 2024 on would be more relevant. We have enough picks to make team changing trades, which is very nice. Going forward, of course protections might not pan out, but thatâs true for lots of traded picks and it doesnât stop them from being trade assets. And even though the Dallas pick didnât pan out this year, itâs possibly more valuable now than when we traded for it. A year ago, possible trade partners eying that pick might have expected it to be in twenties because Dallas was perceived as a good team. Now thereâs a significant chance itâs a pick in the teens.
As bad as the Knicks offense was last night its still better than the Yankees offense.
âall four teams above us in the standings are âall-inâ teams. The Cavs shot their wad on Spida, so they theoretically arenât even competing with us, and if they are, that suggests that this season was a disaster for them.â
Exactly this is why Iâm thrilled even if we lose this series. BUT I want us to lose heartbreakers not blowouts. My thing is always to maximize data points on our young guys and give them chances to prove they belong. IQ, Grimes, Obi, even Mitch to a certain extent all have perfect opportunities to make their cases here. My god, RJ? Same thing. Rise up, guys, or go home.
âWith the heavy load of minutes the Cavs starters are having to play the longer this series goes the advantage goes to the Knicks.â
Totally agree with this, which is why Thibs needs to find rotations that keep our guys fresh and use situational matchups to punish their guys. As Brian says, we played like snails in game two. We should be running whenever possible.
Looks like the Heat are going to be a similar playoff position to us; being blown out today after taking game one on the road.
But thatâs not what youâre doing. Youâre creating an intentionally biased sample that creates a meaningless result.
We might have more picks than Milwaukee or Denver. But thatâs bc they used their picks to get good already.
The key is we donât have enough picks to overcome the teams ahead of us.
“But thatâs not what youâre doing. Youâre creating an intentionally biased sample that creates a meaningless result.
We might have more picks than Milwaukee or Denver. But thatâs bc they used their picks to get good already.
The key is we donât have enough picks to overcome the teams ahead of us.”
Nah, you’re just trolling. But I’ll defer to Brian Windhorst. Why don’t you go troll him?
BTW if you set the bar at overcoming all the teams ahead of us, why don’t you cherrypick a team to root for, since this one will likely not reach your expectations either for result or process for the forseeable future, except by what you would probably dumb luck if it did happen?
My guess is because you actually like being a troll.
You’re not making any sense maybe try again tomorrow.
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As the gekko said after telling the couple that his tiny recliner on display at his yard sale was definitely not for sale and then getting the response “If it’s in the yard, then it’s…….for sale”………
“Here we go.”
The Bucks/Heat look like what the series would look like once the Bucks could actually game plan for not having Giannis.
Lopez looks like he’s playing against middle schoolers out there. He can score in the paint as often as you can get him the ball there. Feels like a long time ago when he used to dominate teams in the paint
Lakers lost against a Xavier Tillman’s team? đ
Yeah, I’m not quite sure what to do with that Lakers-Grizz series. On the one hand (Ja’s?), I think a lot of people wrote the Grizz off too quickly (hard not to type “quickley” now) once Ja went down. They may have forgotten that whole time last season when Ja was out for a while and they went on a tear without him. (I think they did OK when Ja was out this season, too, but maybe in a less pronounced way.) Point being that they know how to win without Ja.
That said, I think the absence of Steven Adams (and to a lesser degree, Brandon Clarke) really makes them a lesser team, and I think the Lakers pull it out in the end. (Insert regular disclaimer here about LeBron’s and AD’s health.)