Knicks Morning News (2023.03.05)

“Big game tonight! This is one of the 3 games on the schedule against a team with a better record. (Sacramento and Cleveland are the other two). It’s an away game. If the Knicks lose it was “expected” and should mean nothing.
Why does it feel like tonight matters?”

I was at the first Celtics game at MSG back on Nov 5 when they went 27-51 and remember thinking “Man they are just SOOOOO much better than us. My friend and I left thinking “Well at least we kept it competitive for most of the game.”

The vibe now is totally different. We are at the point where we shouldn’t concede a loss to anyone, anywhere. Specifically, in that game, Mitch was out, Reddish and Fournier were still in the rotation, and we didn’t have JHart. This is simply not the same team.

Obviously if you had to predict losses after the all-star break, this game would be at the very top of the list. They are still formidable, but I’m not expecting shit. Not any more.

“I don’t think teams will continue to underestimate and be surprised by the Knicks, so it’s going to get tougher.”

There may still be some of that, but I think that time of being underestimated passed already. Everyone saw how we overachieved going into the all-star break without our starting C.

Miami really wanted that game last night. You could tell in the postgame that they were devastated by the loss. They came out last night and demolished the Hawks, who definitely wanted THAT game.

What I’m saying is that none of the wins in this streak are because our opponents have been underestimating us. However, there might be some adjustments coming because a) lots of teams haven’t played us when we both teams are at full strength with a set rotation, and b) Hart is a significant addition that might not have been fully game-planned for.

While I feel our offense is formidable and sustainable, it is hard for me to imagine that when all teams are at full strength and in playoff mode that we have a top-4 offense in the NBA. Top-10 for sure, but top 4??Something about it just doesn’t pass the smell test. Does anyone really believe that come playoff time our offense will be better than the Bucks? The Suns? The Mavs? The Warriors? The Sixers?

“It’s amazing how well-rounded he’s been compared to his reputation in college, which was that of a microwave shooter and little else.”

While this is generally true, various scouting reports touted aspects of his defense, rebounding, and playmaking. The most glaring concerns were with his size/strength compared to NBA 2-guards and his inability to get to the rim.

Here’s some selected edits from Draft Exress:

“Shows smooth athleticism, with long-striding speed and good body control … Possesses the length and quickness to be able to defend both guard spots and often showed he could be effective pressuring the ball in college … Has a good amount of big-game experience having played nearly 2 full seasons for a big-time program like Kentucky … Adequate rebounder for a guard …His 1-year improvement as an off-ball player speaks to his work ethic and buy-in… needs to add weight and strength, as he will struggle with the physical rigors of the NBA until he does”

From Kevin O’Connor:
“Undersized, but has a 6-foot-10 wingspan that made him into an elite defender in college; in the NBA, he projects as a plus defender, at minimum.”

I remember posting a synergy-based analysis touting his defense and aspects of his offense that turned out to be balls-on accurate in retrospect. Small samples can still tell you a lot if you view them with appropriate caution.

Drafting Quickley was a bet on improvement in other areas to be sure….I doubt that the Knicks draft analysis team overlooked these hidden gifts when evaluating him and saw him as just a microwave scorer with a bit of playmaking. Same with Grimes. There was evidence that they outwork their peers in trying to unlock their upside.

And that seems to be a somewhat of a common thread in what the Knicks look for….guys that made massive improvement from freshman to their draft year…or even from being drafted late to where they are now (see: Brunson, Hart, iHart.) Doesn’t make them savants or anything, and mistakes have been made for sure (see: RJ extension) but they do seem to be pretty good at recognizing the value pocket of players who are more likely to reach their upside than not and can be had on the relative cheap.

BTW this is not to pat the FO on the back too hard. The correct pick at #25 in that draft was clearly Desmond Bane, and I (and many others) said it on draft night. Quickley had turned out to be a great pick, but he’s not Desmond Bane…not yet, anyway. But the gap has narrowed significantly for sure.

If Brunson doesn’t play, my money is on IQ to play big minutes and Deuce to fill the slack. I’d love to see Fournier too but it just doesn’t seem to be in the cards unless one of RJ, Grimes or Hart is out.

Anyway, I think Brunson will play. In some ways, I’d be more worried if he doesn’t play…as it might indicate that the injury is more serious.

JV is good but give me JHart and I’m more than good!

Fred Katz
@FredKatz
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6m
Jalen Brunson is out tonight, Knicks say. Sore left foot

Mikal is 9-9 so far…wtf?