Knicks Morning News (2023.02.22)

“…but he gets hurt a lot and he’s got a longer, more expensive contract.”

Towns doesn’t really get hurt a lot. He had a serious calf injury this year and major health and family health issues related to the pandemic, but he’s been pretty healthy beyond that.

I don’t want him on anything close to a max contract under any circumstances, but not because of injury concerns.

One thing I feel fairly confident in is that our FO (i.e. Aller) has a pretty good handle on the cap and roster situation. So as far as tinkering with the 14th roster spot, whatever.

“A good win total would be 44.”

As a betting line or as a take on the season?

If you were to think back to preseason odds, I would agree. However, at 33-27 with winning 5 of our last 6 w/o Mitch heading into the break, going 11-11 in our last 22 would be disappointing regardless of the SOS. Most pundits are calling us a top-10-12ish team, so at a minimum I think 12-10 is a fair expectation, i.e. 45 wins.

I am certainly willing to listen to arguments that LaVine isn’t as detrimental of a player as he currently is in my mind, but let’s remember that he is locked in for around double of what Jalen Brunson makes for the next 4 years. There are very few players I would feel comfortable having on our cap sheet for a guaranteed $49M in 2026-27, and Zach LaVine is far from being one of them. I mean, he’s never had a season significantly better than Randle or Brunson are having this year, and I wouldn’t want either of them at anything close to that number…and they don’t have arthritic knees.

As to Jaylen Brown, it would be literally insane to consider LaVine over him at similar money. In my opinion, Brown is very underrated by advanced stats, primarily because of his shot creation and defensive effectiveness. He is an exceptional 2-way wing, and is a truly dominant player as big 2. He’s a huge reason for the playoff success that the Celtics have had since he’s been there. Doesn’t mean I’d pay Jokic money for him, but would way rather overpay for him than Zach LaVine.

I’m mainly out on LaVine due to concerns about his knee, and secondly about a bad match with our current roster and coach where defense is physically demanding and load management is eschewed. I have great confidence in Grimes being the more effective overall starting 2 at a much lower cost.

I am also not sold on LaVine as one of the best scorers in the NBA. He’s a career 38% 3-pt shooter, lower if you discount the notorious empty arenas year. His 0.9 BPM continues the declining trend from his empty arena season. And he’s never had a positive DBPM. Combing him, Brunson and Randle under Thibs is asking for trouble.

I don’t see how anyone wouldn’t be terrified by the thought of owing him a third of our cap space in 2026-27.

“I mean, RJ’s contract seems at least as likely to age poorly as LaVine’s. LaVine has at least answered the “is he good” question.”

That’s where we part ways in terms of this discussion. While RJ is a sunk cost at this point, 1) he is still only 22…younger than some players are when they are drafted…and has shown extended periods, i.e. 20+ games of very good to excellent play; 2) he is bigger, stronger and more versatile on the defensive end…I’m going to trust Thibs on this one; 3) he is making a fraction of what LaVine is making; 4) he has no long-term injury concerns…in fact, he’s been incredibly durable for a guy who plays as many minutes as he has since he was 19, and 5) you have to factor in the cost of the assets it would take to get LaVine…one of them being Grimes, who might turn out to be a better (albeit lower usage) player on both ends than LaVine at a much lower cost.

A one-way offensive player on a near max contract with a gimpy knee whose explosive athleticism is a critical part of what makes him good on a team that already has two high-usage relatively efficient shot creators with defensive concerns is a terrible use of resources, especially if it comes at the cost of two young players and two unprotected picks (good luck trying to get him for less than that.)

I’d much rather bet on RJ and take the L on his 4 year/$108M deal being dumpable in two years than risk everything on LaVine. While I respect the logic of thinking otherwise, I wholeheartedly feel confident that I am right on this one.

Bruno, I don’t think you need to have an answer to the question “if not him, then who?” to not trade for “him”, especially at the point where we are right now.

Unlike some here (one person in particular), I don’t see us as being in abject purgatory. We actually have a very rootable young team exactly as we are! No gimmicks, no sacrificing all of our assets for a Carmelo-level player, just a nice, organically-acquired, cap-friendly collection of talent with a very competitive 9-man rotation with some playable situational players.

To me, the question is: if not now, then when? And the answer is: when the right opportunity presents itself, which will be within the next months or at most a couple of years. We have just seen a shitload of transactions go down in the past 8 months since draft day 2022, including some involving superstar-level players. If you go back a year, a significant proportion of those deals were not predicted or even predictable. Because of that, I’m not feeling any anxiety for our FO to make a star-level deal before some kind of window on those opportunities closes. We are actually kind of in an excellent position to be picky.

Maybe I’m higher on IQ and Grimes than you and some others here, but my optimism is bcked up by several “scholarly” articles about how they are better than many think and actually elite by some important measures. IQ is 23! Grimes is 22! They can still get a lot better!

As to RJ, he is also 22 years old. He has had enough stretches of strong play, including a 2-month stretch this year, where I can talk myself into being patient with him because I know that 22 year olds are still kids. He’s not holding the team back right now unless one really thinks our record would be significantly better if he played less or not at all, and I for one am not buying that. I’m fine with continuing to run him out there, but with a somewhat shorter leash, and let’s see what another offseason of work post-Brunson/JHart can do for him. If we have to cut bait two years from now, I doubt it will cost that much and at least we will know for sure where his ceiling is. At this time, imagining scenarios to move him for a very flawed max player is too rich for my blood.

As I’ve said previously, there will be a lot of disappointment around the league after this postseason when multiple teams either don’t make the playoffs or unexpectedly lose earlier than anticipated. At this point last year, the Jazz were riding the wave. A few weeks ago the Nets were on a winning streak and looking like a legit title contender. I can think of a whole bunch reasons to keep our powder dry.