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[news.google.com] — Thursday, February 9, 2023 4:47:00 AM
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Skyhawks Sweep Knicks at Home OurSports Central
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 11:23:02 PM
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[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 10:13:00 PM
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[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 10:08:42 PM
BREAKING: New York Knicks Make A Trade With Portland Trail Blazers Sports Illustrated
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 10:04:00 PM
Knicks: Josh Hart traded to New York as Blazers rebuild begins ClutchPoints
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 9:16:50 PM
Jerry Ferrara on the Knicks, Raheem Mostert Talks Angry Runs, and How the Giants Close the Gap With Julian Lo? The Ringer
[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 8:00:00 PM
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[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 3:34:00 PM
Tom Thibodeau bullish on Knicks roster as trade deadline looms: ‘Just noise’ New York Post
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[news.google.com] — Wednesday, February 8, 2023 12:26:00 PM
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New York Notes: Thomas, Claxton, Dinwiddie, Knicks, Reddish hoopsrumors.com
150 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.02.09)”
On the night I decide to finally catch up on some sleep…
I probably wouldn’t have traded for Hart. I don’t like trading first-round picks and ending the transaction without raising your ceiling. He’s also a UFA we almost definitely could’ve had for the full MLE, so this is all about this year. Don’t like that either.
Having said that, he’s a fun, weird player I have a feeling I will enjoy watching a lot. He’s like mirror image RJ Barrett–a stud when it comes to all of the little things with a knack for finding ways to make his teams better.
If RJ doesn’t get it together soon he might be watching a lot more crunch time minutes from the bench.
Yeah, what the team should do is sit one of its best — if not its best — crunch time players in crunch time, and play instead a guy shooting under 30% on open threes.
Repost on new thread:
I am still digesting the trade. One tidbit I learned is that part of Portland’s motivation for trading Hart probably is that they didn’t think they could pay him and keep him for next year because of tax considerations. They need to pay Jeremiah Grant also and are too close to the tax line. A few months ago at least they were thinking he would deserve a raise from his current salary too, making things worse for them. See
Going by salary expectations as a judge of quality it seems we traded three players for one significantly better player. That is kind of what you want to do when making trades. It’s just is it worth a first round pick? I guess time will tell. We will get a chance to see what Josh Hart can do and this may change our minds about losing the pick.
Wow, the Suns just pushed ALL THE CHIPS on the table for Durant, 4 unprotected firsts plus Bridges and Johnson (and Crowder I guess). This deadline has been massively entertaining.
As with so many Leon Rose transactions, mixed reactions. In no particular order:
1. Hart will help the team this year. Hell, if Thibs were to somehow replace all of RJ’s minutes with Josh Hart minutes (or most of them to Hart and some to Quickley and Grimes), we might get substantially better.
2. Between the Villanova connection, the CAA connection, and Thibs’ publicly-professed love for him, I imagine Hart be opting in and/or signing an extension. There are many faults to having an ex-agent in charge, but in this case, Leon surely had to know Hart’s intentions before making the trade. So it’s not a pure rental. If that’s true, then a lottery-protected first for a good role player who you’ll have under control for multiple years is not an exorbitant price. (Cam is just a sunk cost; I don’t factor him into the price at all.) Factoring in the 2028 pick swap, the Celtics gave up more for Derrick White than the Knicks did for Hart.
3. That being said, Hart is another floor raiser rather than ceiling raiser. A team like Boston was in a much better position to do the White deal because they already had their superstar and star sidekick in place. We’ve got a couple of very good sidekicks, but no one near Tatum’s level. Boston can win a title with Derrick White on its current roster. We can’t do that with Josh Hart added to our current roster. So should we be making such a trade?
4. Now that being said, Hart now makes things possible this summer. It sure makes it easier to trade RJ — if you believe that other front offices still value RJ — or to trade some of our other surplus wing depth as part of a star package. Hart himself could be part of such package, with or without an extension: Fred Katz has written a lot about how unusually Hart’s contract is structured, and how he would thus give the team a ton of trade options in the offseason.
5. The whole “The Knicks aren’t going to roster multiple rookies next season” thing is so frustrating. I’d rather take multiple swings in the draft and just send anyone out of the rotation to Westchester, rather than wasting so many roster spots on vets who aren’t going to play. Having a Svi or an Archie on the end of the bench is fine, probably even useful for practice purposes, but we’ve seen this year what a false illusion our depth really is.
So, yeah. I would say the real tell on this is what Leon does next, but you could say the same about almost everything this mystery man has done in the job. It’s a whole lot of kicking the can, even though I look forward to watching Hart rip down rebounds in traffic, and getting to the rack on the other end.
I wonder if the Knicks FO even looked at his shot chart and percentages. It reads almost as if he’s scared to shoot or has the yips.
Has there been a shot chart even remotely like that for a guy from ages 24-27 in the modern association era?
It’s been suggested several places that Hart would not be available for the MLE this offseason. He’s currently making more than it and is expected to opt out for an even bigger deal.
Presumably the Knicks will re-sign him longterm. They would not have been able to do that without this trade.
Still not sure where the minutes come from…. maybe he gets Obi’s minutes as a small ball 4 & also Deuce’s minutes? 8-man rotation?
He’s at least a better backup 4 option if Randle or Obi get hurt
I agree with you 100%, ess-dog. I’m really enjoying this team and I’m likely going to be glad we got Josh Hart (although those numbers E dropped are concerning).
But we have now traded our own first round pick in three consecutive years to attain this modest level. That’s the fucked up part. Teams who do that are usually contenders.
It’s kinda like being homeless, winning the lottery, and using $10 million to buy a modest 3 bedroom home that was on the market for $700k. I like living here, but come on.
On this subject, from Zach Harper (The Athletic):
“His 3-point shooting has been dicey since his rookie campaign, and he’s only hitting 30.4 percent from there this season. But Hart has a high basketball IQ, as we often see in his shot selection. As his outside shooting has suffered, he’s dropped his 3-point volume and increased his attempts inside of 10 feet. It’s why his field-goal percentage is still over 50 percent on the season, as he’s made almost 60 percent of his 2-point shots.”
When Leon took over the Knicks, his most valuable asset – by a mile – was the team’s own first round picks. Let’s look at what he got for them:
2020 (8th): a backup stretch 4 who doesn’t stretch anything
2021 (19th): ashes
2022(11th): sacrificed to get out of a 1 year, $9 million commitment to Kemba Walker that he was an idiot for offering
2023 (???): a “free look” at a guy he could have just signed in 3 months
This is indefensible (even though I know someone is going to defend it anyway).
It won’t happen, but Obi + Quick + a first for Mikal sorta makes sense for both teams.
His usage has fallen from 18.6 last year (25 in his 13 games with Portland) to a below-worm-burner 12.7 this year. He takes fewer than 6 two-pointers per 36 minutes. He’s become an old basketball man at 27.
He basically peaked 2-3 years ago. A decent argument could be made that *that* player was worth a mid-round 1. But he’s not that player anymore, or even close. He reads like a guy falling off a cliff who’s smart enough to have grabbed the life preservers.
For now at least.
I feel reasonably confident that Hart’s drop in USG% has something to do with playing in a starting lineup with 4 players whose total usage is already over 100%.
I don’t know about that E. To quote the Athletic:
“Hart started at small forward the entire season and was one of their best defenders, fiercest competitors and best rebounders. Last month, coach Chauncey Billups called him “our heart and soul.””
I don’t do “heart and soul” coachspeak.
This Hart trade likely means Deuce is moving back to the 3rd PG. But I would suggest Thibs goes back to a 10 man rotation because I am really intrigued by the defense and rebounding of Hart/Quickley/Deuce on that 2nd unit. But moving Deuce to a fringe rotation player makes more basketball sense considering Quickley should have more on ball minutes and Hart can play the 2 & the 3. Also..I wonder why we didn’t use Jeffries’ deal instead of Arcidianaco’s. We are way more likely to need Arci than we will need Jeffries. In any case, the Knicks don’t NEED to make any other moves this season, but it would be nice to find a home for Rose and maybe Hartenstein. I purposely didn’t include Fournier because it’s nice to have his shooting in our back pocket since Svi has been moved. Also- with Hart in tow, I’d be ok with moving RJ for a bigger wing. It would sting to trade RJ so soon, but I would learn to live with it. I still have high hopes for RJ
His shooting from 10 feet out has fallen off a cliff in the last three years. It *has* gotten marginally better inside 10 feet, but now he’s coming to a team with the most clogged offensive lane in the league that already has three high-usage slashers.
So we’ll see. He’s not worth a 1 under any kind of serious analysis.
DaQuan Jeffries’s salary doesn’t count for matching purposes because he’s on a 2-way, so including him probably wouldn’t achieve what the teams wanted to achieve
Oh shit, you’re right, I forget they have Crowder, too! So yeah, they have a lot of excess players that other teams will very much want. Harris, though, is probably untradeable at this point. The dude looks like he is running in molasses out there. Probably better to see if he can rebound next season when he’ll also be an expiring contract.
Ahh..ok. Thanks EB..I thought that might be the case but I wasn’t sure
Getting JHart means we finally go after the right ones.
An RJ deal on the deadline would partly justify his last comical game and it’d be great if we can get someone steadier back but keeping him won’t kill us also…
I mean we’ve drafted half our rotation in the last few years. It’s sort of bizzare how we don’t seem to value picks when we’ve been pretty good at using them. Obi was obviously a mistake but even he is a useful enough player.
I know the odds of drafting a guy better than Josh Hart with like the 19th pick aren’t that good, but I love picks.
Yeah, no problem. Happy to save others from needing to dig through the labyrinth called the CBA!
Daquan may get called up. We have open roster spots now and he’s doing really well in G-league
Who can we get for RJ, Obi, DRose and Fournier?
I imagine if they don’t make a trade that they’ll be plumbing the buyout market.
I honestly love the move.
Josh Hart is awesome. I care not about the usage. If Josh Hart were our starting SF instead of RJ Barrett, we’d have like 6 more wins. Given Brunson and Randle are definitely the usage guys, we need players who can do everything else. Defend, rebound, cut to the basket, etc.
We’re honestly creating the perfect team to take in a superstar in a big swing.
My dream is that the Clippers flame out in the 1st round and we go get Paul George – who is a bit older than I would like, but would fit so perfectly on this team.
Some combo of Brunson, Grimes, Hart, PG, Randle, Mitch, Quickley… that is amazing.
Regarding the draft picks — we still may end up with 2 first round picks this year — Wizards have been perky lately, and we of course still have the Dallas pick… for now.
Re: Hart usage%
You’re right about the lineups and usage correlations.
I’ll spare you the numbers 😉
I agree Hart is a floor raiser but I would argue that our floor still needs to be raised. With the Nets probably going to fall down in the standings, raising our floor a bit and ensuring we get a top 6 spot in the playoff seems wise.
I’m hearing a lot of “I like Hart and I think he’s a good player but I don’t think he moves the needle much” arguments.
But we’ve literally lost a dozen games this season because of one or two points, a missed free throw, letting a team back in the game in the last few minutes, etc. So maybe raising the floor a bit can help us out a lot?
I don’t know. The price for superstars seems really high right now and I appreciate Leon in the meantime slowly turning us into the 2004 Pistons.
As others have pointed out, he now gives us options when it comes to RJ or trading other players for a star.
I get the frustration over picks. But we still have possibly 2 in this draft, right?
This is very true, but I don’t know how much will he play with the Southpaw Cloggers…
We have one of the best offenses in the NBA this year. Our relative problem is mediocre defense, and Hart should help with that as we’ve been bad at keeping teams off the offensive glass.
“I appreciate Leon in the meantime slowly turning us into the 2004 Pistons.”
Two free ones are allowed. The Knickerblogger spirit and all. But I’m afraid that the third time will convert “Team Optimism” to “Team Talk Radio.”
I’m ok with the trade since you would hope Hart brings up his shooting to his career numbers post All star break.
I assume they know he will re-sign cause of the numerous connections so hopefully that isnt an issue.
Random cents thrown on the floor
The new trend for me in the nba is the Young 2way player who can shoot 3s.
Taking flyers on Kemba, Fournier and Reddish was “fun” but dated and doomed from the start cause of those players’ denial/knowledge to play D
The Reason we have one of the most competitive and exciting NBA Regular Seasons is the 3 & D evolution imo.
JHart seems fine!
If we sign Hart for more than the MLE, we’re dumb.
If we want to sign Hart for more than the MLE, we easily could have pulled of a sign and trade with Portland this summer.
There is no 4-D chess here. It is as bad as it looks.
We traded a mid-first to get 26 extra games from a mediocre player we could have just signed in three months. We got 5 cents for a dollar.
I like how in the span of like two months it’s gone from “The Knicks are on fire because of the new defensive spirit and ability of defensive genius Thibs’s new 9-man rotation you can’t play for Thibs if you can’t play defense!!!!” to “Yeah, they gave up another 1 for a plugger, but don’t worry, he’ll give a much-needed shore up to the defense.”
Yeah good point E. People on here have been saying for months the Knicks are on fire because of the new defensive spirit while you were the only one brave enough to correctly point out the team was mired in mediocrity forever because the vegas o/u was sub .500.
“This is very true, but I don’t know how much will he play with the Southpaw Cloggers…”
That’s good, because if he does he makes their life even tougher … and would make things like the ATL shade defense that turned Thibs and Randle into puddles of goo in the playoffs even easier. If he’s on with the first unit in the playoffs, the other team isn’t even going to guard him. Most likely, he isn’t really even guarded by the Kings on lazy January Wednesdays.
Portland would not have done a S&T this offseason because of the tax implications. The tax is the only reason Hart is available at all.
If they were willing to go into the tax, they certainly wouldn’t be downgrading to Evan Fournier.
I’m just conveying information provided elsewhere, specifically that Hart seems likely to get more than the MLE (take it up with Bobby Marks) and that we don’t have the ability to pay over the MLE for a FA.
But I’m afraid that the third time will convert “Team Optimism” to “Team Talk Radio.”
God you are insufferable sometimes.
I think that “the right to pay Josh Hart more per year than the $11.3 million MLE” doesn’t seem like a super highly coveted right.
Well what else were we going to do with that pick Brian? Draft a guy??
I’m not sure your logic is sound, EB. Particularly the “only reason he’s available” bit. Anything is available when you offer 10 times what it’s worth.
I don’t condone the move. I’m just explaining that we probably couldn’t have done it this summer.
Yes, totally agreed.
We traded three players that never see the court for a guy who was a starter all season for Portland that Portland couldn’t afford to pay next year for tax reasons. It cost a pick to do that. You can’t assume we could have just waited and signed him in the off season. Portland would probably have traded him to some one else. I don’t know if it was worth the pick, but single first round picks don’t get you much these days, so maybe it was. We almost certainly got better for the rest of this season. I’m going to look on the bright side and hope the team is more fun to watch because of this trade.
EXACTLY. The fetishization of picks is weird. We still have plenty of them LOL.
Like we probably got better because of this. Isn’t that the goal? To get better? Did we make a move that made us better but prevents us from never getting better beyond that? Absolutely not.
E, can you please not hijack this thread with an over reaction to a marginal move that makes the team better in the short. Please let the rest of us enjoy the push to the 5-6 seed this season. We all know that this team isn’t a contender and the move we made won’t get them there. But this is damn good, gritty team that is likable and has more upside. Funny how the weak link is your pet RJ. If he were an above average starter at 22 in year 4 we would have real cause for optimism.
When it was just the three players and, like, the Washington pick, I’d agree, it was a, “Eh, whatever” trade, totally fair enough, but when it became their own first, ooph. Perhaps there’s a next step that will make this make more sense. Here’s to hoping!
The price was high no doubt. But it was not $.05 on the $1.
The “empty arena Super Julius” and the “stuck to mediocrity’s purgatory” have fallen like sand castles…
The Josh Hart overpay?
Com on dudes…
Good is Good
From what I’ve heard, Hart was only available because Portland was worried about needing to pay Grant and Hart. Reports say they prefer to pay Grant and so Portland wanted to move Hart now rather than lose him for nothing this offseason.
I have no idea what his market was outside of this trade.
I don’t like this trade unless we’re freeing up playing time for him or acquiring a 3rd star in the near future.
Okay, with Durant missing the All-Star Game and now probably Jaylen Brown missing the All-Star Game, as well, does that mean Brunson might make it?
I think Leon is realizing—too late, as always—that highly protected first rounders don’t count for much in trading for a star, so instead he’s rolling a few of these up into role players. That said, I don’t think giving up a first here is actively harmful or bad—we still have a number of draft picks this year and in the future something of a roster crunch if we don’t move any more of the vets, and I can only imagine we’ll have more picks if/when Obi or RJ get traded (I do support using our draft picks, for the record). Not sure Hart for a first is itself EV+, though. Hard to say. Another marginal Leon move in the scheme of things—when will this guy do something eye-opening?!
I listened to the Marks’ logic you’re basing this all on and I think he needs to get some sleep. He’s basing everything around the idea that there’s going to be a hot market for Josh Hart that will reach something like 5 years $100MM. I find that…. wrong.
If we define contention down to “winning two playoff series,” what’s the ETA? (*)
Would that ETA be closer or further away if the Knicks missed the playoffs this year and kept their 1?
Instead of all the “hijack” and “pessimism” yadda yadda stuff, let’s put some meat on the bones here. Skip the “it makes the team better today” stuff and get to the real point.
(*) Or, the TNFH challenge can finally be met and it can be even one playoff series — although that’s not really close to contention. When’s it going to happen?
I like the trade. Hart is good. Sending out one pick in a draft we are still likely to have two around the same place is fine. We couldn’t have signed him in the off season, and now he’s an asset – a very tradable asset that addresses not only our needs but the needs of a lot of teams. As well, having him makes it easier to trade MORE tradable assets like Grimes (who I don’t want to trade, but it’s clear we are positioning ourselves for the final big piece and he would almost certainly be going out in that deal).
I’m with Frank – good trade, good positioning for the final move that makes us a genuine contender. What would this team be with PG13 instead of RJ, for instance? Wish he were younger, but that’s exactly the player we need to raise us to contention.
To answer your question, E, I think this team as is can win a first round match up. Maybe a second, depending on the team.
I have no further comment on the matter of Josh Hart.
I am completely fascinated by what is going to happen in Brooklyn. Are they going to stand pat or will they spin the wheel.
The “we could have just signed him in the off season” argument is bad. The Knicks are trying to get better THIS season. They now see a road to winning a playoff series. That’s… good! The only argument that holds water against the deal is there were reasonable odds that the Knicks could have (I) drafted a franchise altering player with their pick because that’s their real need, or (II) used that pick as part of a deal to get said franchise altering player. On II one would have to think that pick will not be the hold up in such a deal.
Not “can” — are they going to?
“Team Pessimism” speaks clearly and the archives make them accountable for their statements and they’re outnumbered. Let’s hear the same from the other “side.”
When are the Knicks winning a playoff series? When are they winning two?
I don’t know what Hart’s value is around the league so I’m trusting Marks who I’m assuming has a better idea.
If Marks is wrong then yes it’s an even dumber.
I’m just passing along info.
How many times can we have this conversation? We weren’t tanking this year. It is what it is. We’re pretty good in a way that doesn’t feel flukey for the first time in like 20 years. idk what else to tell you.
I’d say (and maybe these new betting apps already have odds for it) that the chances of the Knicks winning a playoff round this season have to be around 25%-35%?
Other matters of interest- It’s going to be interesting to see how Booker and KD combine. Only so many shots to go around.
OK, so they’re throwing away ones and cap space left and right to build a team that has a 35% chance of winning a playoff series this spring.
That’s some impressive 4-D chess.
So if a team with JB and JR playing at their best levels and at their peak ages has a mere 35% chance to win one playoff series, where are the reinforcements coming from to make the massive jump to a team that projects to win *two* playoff series in one spring/summer?
I’ll root very hard for the Knicks come playoff time, I always do, but in the doldrum dog days of the association schedule, there’s really very little to apologize for in focusing on the bigger picture.
“How many times can we have this conversation?
Answer: as many times as E can frantically post in every five-minute increment. I’m going back to skipping his posts when I see his name in the thread. Again.
The West playoffs is setting itself up for some serious shoot outs. Memphis is the only likely contender with a good defense at this point.
Why has Jalen Brunson reached peak level? He’s 25 and plays the position with the longest development timeline?
The Knicks could theoretically trade RJ, IQ, Grimes, Toppin and several unprotected 1sts and pick swaps for years to come for a star player. That’s the plan. Everyone knows it. Will it happen? Don’t know.
I think Toronto probably still trades Trent, by the way. I wonder where he’ll go.
I appreciate that you’re a Manichean simpleton, but we live in a multi-dimensional quantum universe, not binary code (unless we’re just part of a simulation)
i wouldn’t really look into shot charts for any sign of decline but the decline in usage is not so great….
hart’s a glue guy who takes what are good shots for him and contributes elsewhere on the floor…. but this whole history of him being a good glue guy has only existed since…. last year… before that he’s been a negative bpm player based on his very low usage…
his usage should increase a tad but when you’re this consistently low usage… it’s not really because of any coaching decisions…. he’s a limited but heady player who knows what a good shot is but has always lacked the acceleration and the lift to generate more paint opportunities beyond the mid transition baskets… closeout attacks and cuts to the basket…. his high 2pt% is a residual of restricting himself to these attempts and the more you see him dribble it will be apparent why that’s the case….
he does a lot of other things well so he should be a slight plus but if his 3pt shooting just even slightly gets worse…. and with a low ft% that’s certainly very possible given he’s never been great… then he will be a net negative….
Nothing as boringly predictable at KB as watching the same silly heads explode over a minor trade deadline transaction involving a shitty pick for a good player.
Kind of fascinating that Toronto traded for Poeltl. Not sure if that means they’re not going to move OG
The tenor and subject matter of the conversation around here would change dramatically if Leon Rose stopped trading away first round picks for Tom Thibodeau’s hustlebunny pluggers.
But instead — oops, he did it again!
Again, a healthy Portland team’s starters are 4 guys with a total usage over 100%… plus Hart.
This isn’t hyperbole. Grant/Simons/Nurkic/Lillard have a total combined 103.1% usage.
Hart is getting squeezed out by his high usage teammates.
And how enthralling it is to listen to the same drone who clamored endlessly for including the same cherished pick we just traded (*) to unload our best player and only all-star in a salary dump.
(* at the very least….this one is lottery-protected and highly likely to convey in the 18-22 range)
Drone on, troll!
Hart is turning 28 before the end of the season and there’s some worrying trends in his numbers. Doesn’t have a game I’d bet on aging all that well either because of the lack of shooting. His next contract looks like a potential landmine to be, I’d tread very carefully there.
It went unnoticed, but upthread E called RJ Barrett “one of [the Knicks’} best — if not its best — crunch time players in crunch time.”
If any members of the New York Bar Association’s Committee on Character and Fitness are reading this thread, I assure you my fellow attorney is merely trolling. Please do not revoke his license to practice law on the grounds of diminished capacity.
if Leon Rose stopped trading away first round picks for Tom Thibodeau’s hustlebunny pluggers.
This is literally the first time he’s done that. Unless you count Jalen Brunson as one of Thibs hustlebunny pluggers?
Was Cam a hustlebunny plugger? D Rose we got for second round picks. So I literally don’t know what the fuck you are talking about.
Yes, going 0 for 12 for 3 and a half quarters but then banking in a 3 pointer in the 4th makes you CLUTCH!
Don’ you know? The 22nd pick has a 5 percent chance of turning into a playe as good as Hart five years from now!
Clyde said the same thing about RJ in crunch time just last game, for obvious reasons, so I’ll just assume people were watching with the sound turned down.
Maybe he’ll get traded today and I’ll be at the dentist in the last hour of the trade deadline (assuming it ends at 3 EST), so I’ll say it in advance.
I do not care if RJ Barrett gets traded. He’s not remotely untouchable. If the trade otherwise stands up in basketball terms, I’ll applaud it. If it *really* stands up, I’ll applaud it loudly. In fact, if they can do a trade of RJ Barrett that’s truly worthy of loud applause, I hope they do it!!
But I’ll analyze it based on the actual RJ Barrett, not the caricature RJ Barrett we read about ad nauseum pretty much daily on Knickerblogger.
I forgot that one of Es bits this season was pretending Cam was better than fake hustlebunny Quentin Grimes because Cam is tall and jumps good. Tough being the only cold eyed realist on this board of crazed optimists.
I’m surprised that no one seems to have brought up the fact that Dolan just fired a shot across the bow of this management team, saying that he expected the team to make the playoffs this year.
Not that that has any bearing on the merits of the deal, just that it underscores that the FO was never going to tank or build through exercising all of its own draft picks. If one is evaluating this trade through any lens other than that, one is willfully ignoring that Leon’s first transaction was to hire Tom Thibodeau, the most ping pong ball-averse coach in the association.
I hope that Leon’s not done. Hart seems destined for the 2nd team. The Knicks still need a good SF. Ideally it’s a 3-and-D. He looks like a really good role player but unless we sign him to an extension, we might as well have just cut Cam straight out.
Everyone knows about Dolan’s playoff mandate, Z. It’s always been there and it’s obviously a factor in the approach. We’ll never really know the “platonic Leon Rose’s” philosophy — although as you say, we do know Tom Thibodeau’s.
I don’t think he’d fire Rose even if they miss the playoffs — which I don’t expect them to do. I do think Thibs is out if they miss them.
This is a big part of what we do here: make things up that aren’t true, and then rely on the myth we created to justify something that was very stupid.
“We couldn’t have signed him in the offseason.”
“There was no one good enough to draft at that position.”
“We wouldn’t have been able to sign Brunson if we didn’t use a lottery pick to dump Kemba.”
“If we drafted Tyrese Halliburton we wouldn’t have been able to take Immanuel Quickley.”
“Leon’s passing on this draft because he knows 2023 is going to be the double draft.”
Each one’s been proven wrong but they keep coming.
I’m sorry if I believed Bobby Marks.
Next time I’ll call all 30 NBA front offices and ask them what they’d pay for Josh Hart in the offseason.
What is your deal with this?
Anyway, a great man from Westchester once said: “I have no further comment on the matter of Josh Hart”, and I will follow his lead.
Maybe I’m just getting positively polarized by E but upon further reflection I might wind up on the pro-trade side.
I mean, we’re pot committed on a strategy of trying to entice a star to want to come here via trade. I don’t like the strategy, blah blah blah. But this should make us better without really impairing our ability to pull it off.
We rank 25th in eFG% and Hart is in the 68th percentile for wings there and that’s with his 3PT shot totally collapsing. We’ll see if he can come around a bit on the latter front, but regardless his hyper-efficiency at the rim should help us offensively. If his shot revives a bit we may have successfully bought low.
I won’t pretend I’ve scouted Hart extensively enough to have a strong opinion of my own regarding his defense, but the reputation and some numbers are there. The bar is “RJ Barrett” so at a minimum we almost definitely got better on that end too.
This is one of those trades I wouldn’t have made because I wouldn’t be pursuing the larger strategy, but within the framework of the larger strategy it’s probably a good trade.
I can buy that his market this offseason would be above the MLE so this isn’t the worst way to get some value out of Reddish’s salary slot. No need to talk about the series of transactions that led here, if anything it’s a good sign the front office finally just admitted that was all a big clusterfuck. Portland probably wasn’t doing a sign-and-trade, they don’t want to pay the luxury tax for this middling, atrophying team.
The numbers don’t really support the idea that one of these guys is worth 3 firsts, and the other is worth a single protected first that can’t be higher than 15: https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1=anunoog01&player_id2=hartjo01
The other thing that this trade did was cover up the FO’s embarrassment at not being able to unload Cam Reddish for even a top-55 protected second rounder.
“I’m just conveying information provided elsewhere, specifically that Hart seems likely to get more than the MLE (take it up with Bobby Marks) and that we don’t have the ability to pay over the MLE for a FA.”
You are correct.
The Knicks had 6 legit starter level players (the 5 starters and IQ) and now they have 7. Definitely Armageddon level disaster.
EB, you were very clear that you’re just passing along Marks’ opinion. But it’s become a game of telephone since then. I don’t put that on you at all, and my apologies if it came across as if I were.
I’m still not sure what’s going on with the Raptors and OAG, but they are going to make a run down the stretch with the addition of Jakob Poeltl. Don’t look back, because they are coming. I already thought they were better than their record, now they certainly are.
this whole there’s no way we could’ve signed hart is hogwash whether it came from bobby marks or jesus…. whatever impossibility you think exists… dumping fournier who is now a pure expiring contract would cost WAY less than a current year first rd’er…. and you might actually only need to dump obi/ihart if hart ‘only’ got inflation adjusted version of his contract….
they gave up a first because they’re going for something this season…. i’m sorry… but that is fucking stupid anyway you slice it….
Clyde was probably referring to the handful of notable big shots RJ has hit in his career, but he also recently caused a bit of a stir by calling RJ Barrett the single worse defender on the team. So deference to Clyde on the RJ Barrett front doesn’t help you much.
Anyway, with 5 or fewer minutes left and a scoring margin within 5, RJ Barrett is shooting 36.7%. Jalen Brunson is shooting 48.8% and is literally 2nd among all NBA players in total points scored.
I am sure upon reading this information E will say something to the tune of “I didn’t know that before I called RJ Barrett one of the best crunch time players. I still have a higher opinion of RJ Barrett than most here, but I was wrong on that specific front.”
No chance he hand waves all this away and talks about tiers or something.
The post-2018 aggregate numbers miss Hart’s peak and cliff-dive.
Betting on a recovery is a wing and a prayer. Not worthy of speculation at the cost of a 1.
Can I get a definitive answer here on whether or not this statement is true:
“We could have just signed Hart in the offseason.”
If that is true, then this trade sucks, because that means we just spent a first round pick to acquire 26 games of Josh Hart.
If Hart leaves and all we get are these 26 games, then this trade of course sucks the proverbial penises of elephants.
Specifically, EB, we have the report that Portland doesn’t want to sign Hart to a multiyear contract that will be guaranteed to put them well over the luxury tax for each year of the contract he signs (likely 4 seasons).
And we’re taking that to mean Portland would accept losing Hart for nothing in free agency — at a time when Lillard has them by the balls and would be furious if they did that — just to avoid being slightly over the luxury tax for one season if they took back Evan Fournier.
That’s a large leap in logic, is what I’m trying to say. Does that make sense?
Excellent post, TNFH. Couldn’t have written it better myself!
“The numbers don’t really support the idea that one of these guys is worth 3 firsts, and the other is worth a single protected first that can’t be higher than 15:”
I think some people would argue that a healthy OAG is an all defensive team candidate that can guard more positions effectively than Hart and is also a more consistent 3 point shooter.
I think Hart is fine if we play him off the bench to add some energy, rebounding, and scoring etc.. I’d love it if he takes away some of RJ’s minutes and closes games over RJ too. But imo OAG is the much better player.
I’m not smart enough to know how to exactly value that in terms of picks, but I think Hart is worth the pick we gave up and OGA is clearly worth more.
Personally, I’d like to have BOTH!
“Betting on a recovery is a wing and a prayer. Not worthy of speculation at the cost of a 1.”
…sez the guy who wanted to use a #1 pick to unload another washed-up player because betting on a recovery is a wing and a prayer.
Even if we dumped Fournier with no money coming back, waived Rose, and didn’t get the Wizards’ pick we’d still only have $7M or so in space assuming our pick and the Mavs’ pick were 19 and 20.
To get in the range of Hart’s salary we would’ve had to dump some more salary, and at that point you’re probably looking at trading at least close to a lottery protected first’s worth of value.
Of course, if you think he could be had for the MLE this is all irrelevant. The smoke about him opting out is so strong I’m inclined to think his agent has scoured the market and secured something more.
We might never know, but there’s enough uncertainty that IF you value Hart enough it’s not insane to think it was worth a lottery-protected first to get him in the building before the offseason.
I’m fascinated to see where his minutes come from. I mean, if we literally took them all from RJ Barrett we might be *substantially* better. That’s not going to happen, but it’ll be interesting to see where we land on the scale between all the minutes coming from RJ and none of them coming from RJ.
The other thing about Hart — again going back to Fred Katz, cap nerd — is that his deal for next year is something of a mutual option, where he has a player option, and if he declines that, the Knicks can treat it as a non-guaranteed deal, and that they have the ability to move around the date of when it would have to be guaranteed. Basically gives them the ability to either manipulate the cap or use him as non-guaranteed salary filler if we’re trading with a team trying to duck the luxury tax.
Again, this isn’t a trade that can be entirely judged in a vacuum. For now, I look forward to seeing Hart play, even as I don’t feel great at all about giving up the pick for him.
“…sez the guy who wanted to use a #1 pick to unload another washed-up player because betting on a recovery is a wing and a prayer.”
Looks like Z-Man has another fake obsession to keep himself entertained.
But it’s a kinda weird “gotcha” when the person “gotchad” has already said he hasn’t changed his mind.
But I guess I’ll say it again:
I WOULD HAVE DUMPED JULIUS RANDLE LAST SUMMER AT THE BEST PRICE I COULD GET!!!! IF I HAD DONE THAT AND HE PLAYED LIKE THIS FOR HIS NEW TEAM, I WOULDN’T LOOK BACK!!!
“We could have just signed Hart in the offseason.”
“If that is true, then this trade sucks, because that means we just spent a first round pick to acquire 26 games of Josh Hart.”
It’s NOT true.
He’s going to cost more than the MLE and we wouldn’t have the cap space to sign him.
This is not complicated.
1. He’s a Leon Rose connected guy.
2. He’s a Jalen Brunson connected guy.
3. He’s the prototypical Thibs kind of guy (he wanted to draft him originally).
4. We need bench depth and we added that using non rotation players.
5. IMO, a protected 1st round pick is approximately the correct value
6. Instead of drafting someone that might turn out to be as good as Hart and waiting 3-4 years for him to get there, we have him now at his peak.
7. We still have the Dallas pick and if the Wizards ever get healthy, we may still have 2 1st round picks this year.
I am from Westchester?
The battle for Wenbanyama is about to get extremely hot.
Also, I do agree with this from TNFH. The logic of it applies to basically everything that has happened over the last two years and everything that is likely to happen the next two years.
“This is one of those trades I wouldn’t have made because I wouldn’t be pursuing the larger strategy, but within the framework of the larger strategy it’s probably a good trade.”
No one should weigh in too strongly on the “we could’ve signed him” or “we couldn’t have signed him” side.
We have no god damn clue, he could’ve had multiple suitors willing to give him $15M+ AAV or his market could’ve collapsed.
We thought it was worth a rather heavily protected first to cut through all of that and get him in the building. How you feel about that should come down to how important you think it was to get Josh Hart, about which I think there’s a lot of room for reasonable disagreement. He’s a good but very weird player, which gives both sides very strong points.
I think we made the team better, sent a subtle sign to RJ Barrett that we’ve gained an alternative option in the event he continues to suck, and didn’t materially alter our ability to land a needle-mover.
I think it’s a B/B+, but I reserve the right to move that around until Josh Hart’s first game as a Knick.
Hart is CAA. There is something like a 0% chance we don’t know what he wants and are prepared to sign him to some sort of extension/new deal.
We’re never going to know, because they’re going to sign him for more than the MLE and then the shills and propagandists are going to say they had to because some other team would have.
His numbers are extremely worrisome, but I’m going to wait and see with my own eyes on the court. But as it stands strictly by the numbers, he’s a guy that you don’t even have to guard come playoff time.
In terms of the negotiation and price, if it’s true they wanted to dump him because of the luxury tax that means its essentially a fire sale and you should use your increased leverage to underpay, not overpay, in that context. Negotiations 101.
The problem with assuming that one could just sign Josh Hart in July is that Portland could have traded him to another team, and that team would have his bird rights. So, though Portland was going to lose him for nothing, the Knicks waiting for that to happen depended on 28 other teams also waiting for that to happen.
I have no idea what the market for Hart is. I have no idea what Portland’s tolerance for the tax is.
I have no way of finding out what these are.
So if Bobby Marks, who presumably has info I don’t have, says the market for Josh Hart is above the MLE and Portland is trading him now because they don’t want to pay the tax, then I take his word for it.
I assume Hart was going to be moved by the deadline regardless.
Hart’s current contract is worth a little more than the mle so in cap inflation adjusted terms and where his age is it’s a no brainer to opt out… dumping fournier and any one of toppin/ ihart would not have cost a current year first…. alec burks and noel were dumped for nothing near that…..
of course you then get into the folly of paying a bench player starter level money and you’re drawing closer to rolling over the fournier mistake…
Would be curious to know what the prevailing range of opinions at Knickerblogger are as to this team’s ceiling if you replaced RJ with Mikal Bridges. In other words would it be worth giving up assets that would be required in the pursuit of an all star?
but who’s going to trade anything for him if he’s not signing with them? if he wants to sign here and the knicks want to sign him…. i mean how many times has this happened in free agency? this is not some insurmountable hill to climb….
Personally, I think we should be targeting Robin Lopez for a return to NYC: https://twitter.com/rolopez42/status/1623588927863939073
My big takeaway from the Hart trade is that those of us who were calling the heavily protected future firsts mostly worthless were just proven correct since we had to trade our own first instead.
I would love to trade RJ for Mikal Bridges.
And yeah, Robin is hilarious
Djphan, if we’re salary dumping Fournier AND Obi or Hart in this scenario, are we really not approaching lottery protected first value, considering we’d almost definitely have to add some seconds to do it?
Donnie’s point also needs to be considered, it’s quite possible we don’t even get the opportunity to do that.
We basically ensured we would have the ability to sign Josh Hart this offseason if we want to, which was possible but far from a sure thing if we didn’t make the trade. The cost of that was a lottery protected first, so the argument should boil down to whether you think Josh Hart is worth that to us.
I lean yes with all the usual caveats about the larger strategy, but understand the other side.
If you go under the cap you also lose the MLE and no longer have deals to use as trade filler.
Fournier is valuable to keep on the books for potential star trades.
Ok thanks for those answers, hive mind. If it turns out that Hart is part of our rotation for the next 2-3 years or whatever, then okay fine. Reasonable enough trade.
JK, as for could we have hired him in the off season, I don’t think a definitive answer exists because to be definitive you have to know how much he will cost. But I think it’s clear it would be difficult even if theoretically possible. The Knicks are well over the cap and only $7M under the tax. So he would have to fit into the non taxpayer mid level exception or we would have to move salary which would undoubtedly cost something to do. Assume we will not pay to move salary. We’d have to get him for the mid level exception or less and we would be competing with other teams. So if we assume he could be got for less than the mid level exception, then yes we could have signed him. If not, then no we couldn’t have. Is he worth more than the MLE? Bobby Marks seems to think so and he is a starting wing who can score and defend, so it’s very possible. Also, teams often pay more for free agents than seems reasonable because they don’t have to give up anything for them. On balance, it’s not likely we would have signed him as a free agent.
“I think some people would argue that a healthy OAG is an all defensive team candidate that can guard more positions effectively than Hart and is also a more consistent 3 point shooter.”
They’d be right, I was making a point about the differential in trade value.
I’ll be honest. I just don’t want Deuce to go back to the bench.
I also don’t want Grimes or IQ to lose minutes.
Otherwise Hart is great. But please God, have him take some of RJ’s minutes…
I feel like fans being all excited about how many future draft picks their basketball team has is equivalent to bragging about having a top farm system in baseball.
Thats great and it could paint a bright future but sometimes it seems like fans prefer being able to brag about a hypothetical bright future instead of enjoying a pretty good current team. The Knicks have a legitimate chance to finish 5th in a pretty stacked East, try to enjoy what should be a fun, suspenseful final 26 games of the regular season plus hopefully a dramatic 1st rd playoff series. Knicks fans of all people shouldn’t take these opportunities for granted.
“But I guess I’ll say it again:
I WOULD HAVE DUMPED JULIUS RANDLE LAST SUMMER AT THE BEST PRICE I COULD GET!!!! IF I HAD DONE THAT AND HE PLAYED LIKE THIS FOR HIS NEW TEAM, I WOULDN’T LOOK BACK!!!”
Which continues to be one of the dumbest takes ever shared on this board, and is one of the many reasons why I find your bluster so incredibly tedious and vapid. Troll on, though!
I can understand E’s outrage over the trade. A tripple whammy—Cam gone, potential reduction in RJ role, and a FO show of faith in Thibs.
Those are 3 reasons I like the trade. But overall a preference for keeping the pick so on balance a bit disappointing.
#I WOULD HAVE DUMPED JULIUS RANDLE LAST SUMMER AT THE BEST PRICE I COULD GET!!!! IF I HAD DONE THAT AND HE PLAYED LIKE THIS FOR HIS NEW TEAM, I WOULDN’T LOOK BACK!!!”#
Well… hitting a nun with your car while chasing Batman and not looking back doesn’t make it better…
Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel was about 19mm in salary and they were dumped to detroit for a couple of seconds …. Fournier this offseason is basically that…. you add on obi or ihart in a dump and i don’t think that elevates things to a first rd’er…. you could very easily send them out in separate deals that would look a lot like the hachimura dump….
and this is all assuming that Hart is worth more than the MLE… which i mean for a 5th-8th man type that’s a very questionable thing to be asking in itself let alone giving up picks for the privilege to be doing that….
An important caveat to my slightly pro-trade take: we damn well better either keep Hart on a reasonable deal or make a good trade with him this offseason. If we made this deal without such assurances, that would be moronic.
Anyone following the Suns? Wondering if they’re also going apeshit over the loss of those picks…
Wonder if CP3 will average 20 assists per game the rest of the way…
I think Hart is definitely worth more than MLE money in an open market. He defends, rebounds, passes, and scores on low volume but with good efficiency. That skillset pretty much nets you the MLE by default. And teams would be willing to pay for the upside of him shooting league average from 3. Of course there’s downside risk, but that’s the name of the game for 95% of NBA contracts that aren’t rookie-scale. If he shoots league average from 3–obviously not a foregone conclusion that he does, but not out of the realm of possibility–then you have a really valuable player on your hands. On the merits he’d be starting over RJ day 1.
It’s still wild to me that Bridges was drafted by the Sixers
And the Suns now have three of the best mid-range shooters in all of basketball.
I don’t even know what that means, really, but it’s kind of amazing.
“I feel like fans being all excited about how many future draft picks their basketball team has is equivalent to bragging about having a top farm system in baseball.”
I don’t mean this as a criticism because plenty of smart people agree with the consensus here and many other fans, but this forum is dominated by people that think tanking is the best way to rebuild. So almost anything involving giving up picks is frowned upon unless it’s an outright robbery (which rarely occurs).
IMO, picks are just another asset just like cap space, a fair/attractive contract etc.. that have intrinsic value.
***but who’s going to trade anything for him if he’s not signing with them?***
Because the team that trades for him doesn’t have to depend on the MLE. Teams have an advantage when it comes to signing their own players.
“but this forum is dominated by people that think tanking (for the Knicks, in certain contexts in franchise history) is the best way to rebuild.”
For the record, I am in lockstep with TNFH’s assessment of the trade, which is approval in the context of the FO’s chosen and unalterable but questionable “hybrid” strategy for building a contender.
Hart is definitely my kind of Knick…a smart, hard-nosed, team-oriented badass. I’m not all that worried about the “floor” of this trade, which is that we lose him for nothing this offseason and don’t get to draft a second player in the first round or have that pick for a draft-day deal. This FO is simply not going to make more than one first round pick in any given year, and we still have the DAL pick which is likely to convey in the same range as the pick we just traded. So it becomes a question of what that asset was worth in the deadline trade market in terms of improving the team right now, and possibly going forward. Through that lens, I don’t think you are getting a better player than Josh Hart for a pick that is certain to convey as #16-24 pick, most likely in the #18-22 range. As TNFH demonstrated, you are getting 90% of OG for 20% of the cost, unless you (foolishly, see: Julius Randle) believe that he is over the hill at age 27.
Look, full stop: if we end up getting 26 games of Josh Hart for a first round pick, that is a bad trade. That is an exorbitant price for a rental of Josh Hart in a year where the team has a 0% chance to win a chip. That’s like paying $1500 for Sammy Hagar tickets level exorbitant.
I hope he ends up staying here for longer than the 26 games so we don’t have to have this argument.
538 gives us a .6% chance of winning the finals. What more do you want?
According to Robert Randolph the Knicks are still pursuing OAG and Mikal Bridges and RJ is included in some scenarios. They also want Seth Curry. Nets don’t want to trade with the Knicks. I’m not sure if he’s a 100% or 50% troll, but it’s fun hoping he’s right that we are at least pursuing playing that make sense.
Trade deadline thread!
You can only believe what Robert Randolph says on Friday nights
My first reaction to the Hart trade was similar to that of the Mets trade for Darin Ruff last summer, as in, “Wow, that’s an overpay” for a useful but not needle-moving player.
Now, the Ruff trade ended up worse as he promptly sucked the rest of the season, as Hart almost certainly will not. I think the effort on D, rebounding and such should translate to the Knicks. Maybe he’ll regain his 3 point stroke.
If he does walk in the offseason, then, yeah, this trade gets much worse. Couldn’t a couple of 2nd rounders have gotten this done?
“but this forum is dominated by people that think tanking (for the Knicks, in certain contexts in franchise history) is the best way to rebuild.”
Context always matters.
I think Knicks fans of a certain age became permanently emotionally damaged by the Isiah Thomas era (plus or minus a little) when we were giving away picks like Halloween candy getting much the worst of it on every deal.
The thing I find interesting is that drafting Frank, Knox, and Obi with good lottery picks did not cure it or at least bring it back to the middle.
“An important caveat to my slightly pro-trade take: we damn well better either keep Hart on a reasonable deal or make a good trade with him this offseason. If we made this deal without such assurances, that would be moronic.”
Nah, it would just be risky. In the previous thread, this FO was repeatedly characterized as “risk-averse” or “conservative.”
But that’s not really true. First, the “hybrid” strategy is fraught with risk by definition. Second, doing things like 1) waiting to extend Mitch even though he might leave for nothing, 2) betting on Julius recovering from a down year rather than, as you put it, selling before his contract became even more of an albatross, 3) signing RJ to an extension on blind faith, 4) not pulling the trigger on an all-in trade for Spida….these kinds of things involve a lot of risk…just with a different downside.
As to this trade, it is indeed a risk, with both upside and downside. If I’m judging it right now, I’m not factoring in assurances that are impossible to discern. I have to ask “is it a risk worth taking?” just as I would ask when drafting a project with a high ceiling but a low floor vs. a sure thing with a limited ceiling.
For now, I’m far more concerned with how much he helps the team this year than worried about what will happen in the offseason with regard to this particular trade. Let’s hope he plays like someone we actually WANT to be on the team beyond this year. Then I’ll worry about whether we can extend him or lose him.
If we ended up trading three of our own first round picks for:
1. 600 minutes of Cam Reddish
2. The cap space necessary to sign Isaiah Hartenstein
3. 26 games of Josh Hart
That would be pretty embarrassing.
I don’t know why I thought you did live in westchester, Owen. You seem like such a Pleasantville guy.