[theathletic.com] — Tuesday, October 4, 2022 5:15:27 AM
Isaiah Hartenstein’s education is complete, and now he gets to show Knicks his talents The Athletic
[www.sportskeeda.com] — Tuesday, October 4, 2022 1:00:05 AM
“Like one, I hated Reggie Miller because I was a Knick fan” – Al Harrington recalls and commends Reggie Miller’s work ethic, claims he could still tell his routine Sportskeeda
[clutchpoints.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 9:47:56 PM
‘I killed that ego’: Derrick Rose on mindset ahead of 14th season ClutchPoints
[www.si.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 8:10:16 PM
Knicks Postseason Hero Hubert Davis Named Grand Marshal of NASCAR Playoff Race Sports Illustrated
[www.nydailynews.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 5:34:44 PM
Knicks’ point guard Derrick Rose eager for full healthy NBA season New York Daily News
[www.cbssports.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 5:07:04 PM
Knicks’ DaQuan Jeffries: Out Tuesday CBS Sports
[dailyknicks.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 5:00:00 PM
Tyler Herro’s extension makes RJ Barrett’s Knicks contract look that much better Daily Knicks
[nbaanalysis.net] — Monday, October 3, 2022 4:52:16 PM
NBA Rumors: This Knicks-Wizards Trade Features Derrick Rose NBA Analysis Network
[empiresportsmedia.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 3:50:02 PM
Quentin Grimes out in Knicks preseason opener vs Pistons Empire Sports Media
[www.detroitnews.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 3:34:21 PM
Pistons to utilize ‘practice’ approach for preseason opener against Knicks Detroit News
[www.wzzm13.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 3:33:00 PM
Locked on Pistons: Mailbag: Who is going to start for Detroit Pistons opening preseason game against New York Knicks? WZZM13.com
[nbaanalysis.net] — Monday, October 3, 2022 1:35:21 PM
NBA Rumors: This Knicks-Spurs Trade Is For Immanuel Quickley NBA Analysis Network
[www.cbssports.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 11:02:52 AM
New York Knicks 2022-23 NBA preview: Can RJ Barrett become an All-Star? Is Jalen Brunson worth the money? CBS SportsESPN Analyst Bullish on Knicks, Hints at 45 Wins Sports Illustrated3 things to pay attention to during Knicks 2022-23 preseason Daily Knicks2022-23 New York Knicks preseason roster, schedule, key questions, how to watch, more AMNYKnicks now built to increase pace with new personnel, better conditioning New York Post View Full Coverage on Google News
[www.si.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 9:15:16 AM
Knicks Injury Could Grant Cam Reddish Instant Opportunity Sports IllustratedKnicks’ Cam Reddish gets opportunity to impress after Quentin Grimes injury New York Post Knicks Notes: Reddish, Toppin, Barrett, SG, Barrett hoopsrumors.comKnicks’ Cam Reddish denies trade request rumor: It’s not fair Empire Sports MediaKnicks Coach Gushes Over Fourth-Year Wing Heavy.comView Full Coverage on Google News
[www.insider.com] — Monday, October 3, 2022 7:46:59 AM
Jeremy Lin talks about Linsanity and his NBA falling-out Insider
88 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2022.10.04)”
Be happy people, at last… it’s game day! 🙂
Katz’s piece on Hartenstein linked at the top of the page is really good.
Glad we’ll finally have some basketball to talk about, even if it’s not quite real basketball just yet.
This twitter thread is hilarious. Why do we believe the offseason crap season after season? 😛
Personally I don’t think there is anything wrong with criticizing the FO for choosing to trade picks on draft night rather than making them.
I just don’t see the necessity to amplify the criticism by mischaracterizing the return received for the traded picks, or inflating the probability that the picks would result in an impact player, including by cherrypicking those players after the fact.
It’s also frustrating when those who don’t find these mischaracterizations and the inflammatory language used to make them humorous are characterized as shills for the FO, even when they say time and time again that they didn’t like not making the picks.
There’s really only one poster who actively defends the FO in making these moves on their face. While his defense, imho, does not make a case for validating the moves, it does make a case that the preponderance of the draft-day moves are not nearly as negatively consequential as portrayed by the most ardent detractors. That’s just my opinion. I disagree with him overall, but give his posts a fair reading and agree with some of the logic he uses.
Overall, my opinion is that this FO seems to take one step back for every two or three it takes forward. They are definitely making progress. We have a roster with only two rotation players over the age of 30 and 3 of its top 13 players with more than 4 years in the league. We have all of our own picks and some likely to convey middling firsts from other teams. I never liked the initial commitment to the hybrid method, and several decisions made in its execution since. But it hasn’t been even two years since the first roster move was made by this FO, and yes, I do see realistic possibilities for further significant improvement.
October 4, 2022 at 08:05
This twitter thread is hilarious. Why do we believe the offseason crap season after season? 😛
Right now I would bet that we will still be a bottom 5 team in pace. If so, I hope that interviewers like Katz will refer back to these pronouncements as the season goes forward. I don’t remember many questions specifically about the team’s slow pace during last year’s post-game conferences with Thibs.
#33 picks to determine no one was worth drafting. And then in 2021, it took him 19 picks. But in 2022, it only took 11#
Said it last year and everyone thought i was joking…well this year it’s finally official.
Leon paid homage to the greatest Knicks ever by retiring their draft-jersey numbers…
Let’s have a Great Preseason Boys!
We definitely need it!
Kevin Pelton & Zach Lowe are both over on the Knicks according to his latest podcast. They didn’t say if they were doing it to spite E or not
Nate Duncan and his partner are both also in favor of the over for Knicks wins.
38.5 is the over/under? That does seem pretty achievable.
Any word on Jean Montero buyout? Would love to see him play even 5 min.
Can’t wait for the Trevor Keels to “show up in the best shape of his life.” He’s gonna dominate tonight!!!*
*He will not
This might be the most confident I’ve ever been in taking the Knicks over. The lack of a viable long-term plan for the team shouldn’t impact the upcoming season. Factors like depth, coaching, and organization are much more likely determinants of how we’ll perform, and we stack up very well in those regards compared to the other middle-of-the-pack teams.
Everything about this team is high floor, low ceiling. It’s designed to tread water effectively until something wonderful but unlikely happens. While I don’t agree with the strategy, I applaud the execution. 38.5 seems well below our high floor. I would have set the over/under at 41.5.
Citing examples of good players taken after draft picks we traded away because we did not think there were good players available is not “cherry picking.” It is direct evidence that the front office miscalculated.
It’s blatantly obvious that Bones Hyland among many others on the second year of a rookie scale deal would be more valuable to us than the incinerated pick would be, and more valuable to us than Cam Reddish on an expiring deal actually is.
There’s no two ways about it, that necessarily means the calculation the front office made was wrong.
To call this hindsight is silly—the draft does not involve picking names out of a hat. It is literally the job of an NBA front office to have foresight when it comes to prospects.
That’s a fair assessment. Not all steps forward are equal, though. One step on the correct path is worth more than three steps on the road that leads to nowhere. The evidence indicates we’re most likely on the latter.
The case for optimism, IMO, is not that Leon’s course is correct. It’s that he’ll change course before it’s too late. All he’s done so far is miss golden opportunities. He has not, like past administrations, fully committed to a terrible strategy that will take years of misery to unwind.
I am going to bet $50 on the Knicks + 295 to go over 43.5, thus dooming the Knicks to win 43 games. I’m taking one for the team
My take on this team is that we will have a worse starting lineup and a better bench than most non-lottery teams. By Thanksgiving weekend we will be 20 games in. Early on we will have a 7-games in 12 days stretch where we play @MIL, @CLE, ATL, @PHI, BOS, @MIN, @BKN. It is very possible that we will be 3-8 after that stretch, and if so, the grumblings will start. If we start 8-12, I’d say that the under is in play, especially if a key player gets injured. OTOH, if we emerge close to .500 the over looks very good.
I hate to say it, but so much will depend on Julius Randle. For better or worse, he’s the one player that I think hitting the over depends upon most. If he continues his poor play, or if is out for an extended period due to injury, I just can’t see this particular team getting to 39 wins. Every other player has a reasonable replacement just by shuffling minutes.
If that comes across as a lack of confidence in Obi, it isn’t necessarily intentional. I suppose you can squint and see an Obi-Cam-Hunt PF rotation holding the fort, but I’m just not seeing it. And I don’t think Thibs will go away from Julius unless he becomes a complete disaster and the crowd mercilessly boos him every night at MSG.
Man, Amen Thompson looks ridiculously good. This coming draft really will be a great one.
On one hand, it’s a relief we kept all our 2023 picks. But on the other, it’s too bad we won’t have a high enough pick to get a top-5 guy (although you never know with this team).
While not defending the FO, I always thought the trading current draft picks for future draft picks strategy was purely a play to stockpile to trade for a star. And while I mostly agreed with the arguments “you traded x pick and got back x minus pick” and “you traded x pick and look who you could have drafted” I was waiting to see what those stockpiled picks would get us.
Failing to land Mitchell with our stockpiled picks (I was not a big fan of the trade anyway but that is besides the point) when that seemed to be the plan is where my criticism of the FO lies. They had a plan, to keep it on track they sacrificed some value, and then did not execute.
Anyone else finds the videos on B-Ref.com totally annoying? If we are there going through 6 or 7 pages to check players/teams, the same video starts on every page (until we have the time to go and stop it)… oof!
If you assign only a 10% chance of a player being viable in the next 10 picks, there’s still a 65% chance that one of those players will be viable.
If you look at the next 15 picks at a 10% evaluation, it’s 80%.
It depends on what you think the likelihood of each player being a hit is, but the existence of one player you didn’t believe in playing well is pretty high.
Maybe 10% is high enough to wager on at that point, but people routinely underestimate how likely it is for low % individual choices to end up being good over a longer stretch.
This is the problem with hindsight bias, unless you can pick out that player ahead of time, there’s a good chance some player is going to outperform expectations by a wide margin.
It’s not just that they failed to get Mitchell, BernieEarnie, it’s that their “stockpile” was largely unwanted. We didn’t even come close to what Cleveland gave up in the end. This is, ironically, why I am optimistic: the Mitchell negotiations revealed his strategy to be a profound failure in a way that I can’t imagine escaped him. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as an inexperienced GM that he’ll learn.
Trying to think of something to get excited about for this preseason game since we’ve seen basically the entire roster play NBA basketball before.
idk if Randle plays like complete shit maybe we’ll just start Obi, who is likely a better player this year anyhow.
the gambling stuff is so confusing…so what does + 295 odds on a $50 bet equate to if the knicks hit 44 wins?
Atlantic has a pay wall on that iHart article above. Can someone with access post it?
“There’s no two ways about it, that necessarily means the calculation the front office made was wrong.”
No more wrong than the other FOs were in passing over Hyland for the many players who haven’t panned out as well as him thus far. And as I’ve said many times, the Knicks passed over him 3 times, meaning that they just weren’t going to pick him, period, probably for the same reasons that nearly every other team didn’t pick him (including teams that could have easily traded for the pick that he was taken with.) I don’t really take it too much to heart when our FO is no more dumb than most smart FOs in terms of who they value in the draft. This is not nearly as egregious as picking Obi over Hali in my book. It’s a blip.
In any case, what I mean by cherrypicking is that you can’t just pick a player to substitute in to the #19 slot. I’ve said often that if the Knicks had just picked McBride at #19 and Grimes at #21, the criticism would have been much more muted. IIRC, both of those guys were on your draft board as first rounders, maybe not before Hyland but certainly not grotesque reaches. That was the chalk thing to do, and they outperformed that outcome. So we’re essentially criticizing them for things we wouldn’t have criticized them for had they been less creative. Even so, they passed on Hyland 3 times, so they would never have drafted him over all the other players available.
PS if the Knicks drafted Hyland, who would he have replaced in Thibs’ rotation? I agree that he’s a much better prospect than Cam Reddish (and yes, I separate the use of the CHA pick from the draft night trade, they are not one continuous transaction) but let’s not put him in the all-star game just yet. And I’m sure you don’t think that it would have prevented the Fournier signing. Would he have made the Brunson signing unnecessary? Not if you think that IQ is a better player than Hyland already, as I do and I’m sure Thibs would. This is all conjecture of course, but interesting to think about in a what-if sense.
For a deep dive into Bones and his defensive issues, here’s a great Forbes article:
This doesn’t sound like a Thibs kind of player:
“the disparity between offense, where the Nuggets were a plus-2.4 with Bones on the court, and defense, where their opponents were a plus-3.9. More simply put, although the difference was rather small, for the season as a whole when Hyland was on the court, Denver’s offense was good but their opponents’ offense was better.”
The author goes on to say that Hyland’s splits were better in the second half of the season, but issues still remained. Lots of film clip-based analysis.
“I just don’t see the necessity to amplify the criticism by mischaracterizing the return received for the traded picks, or inflating the probability that the picks would result in an impact player, including by cherrypicking those players after the fact.”
We all know why this happens because it happens to everyone unless you consciously fight it.
Once people have a vested interest in one model they think is correct, it’s close to impossible to let go of it even if solid counter points are presented, the data suggests it’s a close call, or God forbid you are wrong.
Most people here want a total crash and burn rebuild via draft. They want to get rid of anyone that is old enough to have a problem with 5:00 shadow. 🙂
Anything that conflicts with that desired model is automatically perceived as bad. Since we aren’t going that route we have to get rid of management and the 2 time (should be 3) coach of the year.
The reality is that a lot of these decisions are very close calls as to the value and correct strategy and most of the time the determining factor in the result was more a matter of luck than being right or wrong. Non gamblers have a tougher time with this concept. For the serious gambler, it’s in your DNA.
Just a wondering, how many people here would trade either IQ or Grimes straight up for Bones Hyland? I’m a no on both (although if Grimes keeps getting hurt that could change…)
I know that the debate is really Hyland vs. Reddish but that is obviously a no-brainer.
That last post was excellent. Everything is easy in the rear view mirror. I might have even had a winning day at Santa Anita on Saturday if I knew what I know now. 🙂 Instead I should be fired and Kenny Atkinson should be running my bets.
With Grimes out, Cam should have an easy path to preseason minutes as the backup 3. Will Thibs play him? And will he prove worth any of the fuss? Stay tuned!
“Once people have a vested interest in one model they think is correct, it’s close to impossible to let go of it even if solid counter points are presented, the data suggests it’s a close call, or God forbid you are wrong.
People here want a total crash and burn rebuild . They want to get rid of anyone that is old enough to have a problem with 5:00 shadow.”
While there’s some truth to this, I think it’s more accurate to say that even by the standards of the hybrid approach, there are some who feel that the FO has made some very bad decisions that set even that process back.
For example, there is the issue of trading out of the picks in general, vs. the issue of not getting commensurate return in those trades. There is the issue on marginal wins on the backs of mercs, vs. the issue of the mercs and contracts themselves.
“Trying to think of something to get excited about for this preseason game since we’ve seen basically the entire roster play NBA basketball before.”
D-mar, this team has more interesting questions than any team I can remember. Just a few:
Is Randle broken or fixed?
Was the last week of Obi last year a mirage?
Is IQ breaking out?
Is iHart a poor man’s Jokic?
Has RJ actually learned to pass out of triple teams?
How will Brunson impact the others?
Is Rose back and still able?
Will Mitch shoot a three-pointer at some stage?
Is Cam an actual NBA basketball professional?
And of course, does Miles McBride really deserve my unquestioned love?
EB and strat, my standard is: in a particular situation, what are the odds that the player you select could be traded for a draft pick at that position in the next couple of years? (and a good scouting team is analagous to having card-counting abilities at a blackjack table.)
I think where I would agree with TNFH et. al. is that in that particular draft, the odds were very favorable that the player picked would retain or exceed that level of value, much higher than 10%.
I don’t think that was the case in the 2022 draft, especially at #11, and getting 3 protected picks in return was excellent value. Some of that value was squandered in the subsequent salary dump, but all in all it seemed like more or less a wash. Was there a more optimal way to dump salary to acquire Hart, Brunson, etc.? Probably. Not a big deal for me, though. Opinions vary.
One is “we like player A more than player B.” Those mistakes have to be accepted in something as speculative as the NBA draft.
The other is “there is no player worth speculating on.” That’s a very different kind of wrong. It’s very rare kind of wrong, too, and it’s a lot harder to accept.
Raven, that’s a great list! I might add: is “playing faster” just a bullshit platitude or will they actually try it?
Raven, I wasn’t implying that there aren’t a ton of questions surrounding this team, just that a preseason game won’t tell us much about any of those guys you listed.
How long before the Knicks have to confess that Grimes’ sore foot is a stress fracture a la Hardaway and he will be out for 3 months?
Director NYC, it was a very nice puff piece suggesting that iHart is, indeed, a poor man’s Jokic (and that he’s been modeling his game after Jokic and Draymond…!). The two most interesting paragraphs, in my opinion:
Hartenstein assisted on 19 percent of his teammates’ buckets while he was on the floor last season, fifth among NBA centers. Jokic, of course, was first. He creates efficient offense, too. He’ll go into quick dribble-handoffs or fling to a spot-up shooter; 46 percent of his assists were for 3-pointers.
Opponents made only 47.5 percent of layups and dunks when he was the closest defender last season, second best in the NBA, according to data-tracking site Second Spectrum. The advanced rim-protection metrics had “a lot” to do with the Knicks’ interest in him, says Thibodeau.
I’d trade Grimes for Bones without thinking twice. Bones can drive usage, Grimes can’t. Driving usage is a far rarer skill than whatever it is that Grimes does.
Bones has way more upside and the Knicks should have drafted him.
The thing to watch for tonight is the offensive philosophy.
“For example, there is the issue of trading out of the picks in general, vs. the issue of not getting commensurate return in those trades. There is the issue on marginal wins on the backs of mercs, vs. the issue of the mercs and contracts themselves.”
I understand both those points, but I’ve tried to explain the logic of trading out of a pick without necessarily making a judgment on the details of what we did because I have no special insights into the draft other than the data on average
When you make a 1st round pick, you are committing to a player at a set rate for multiple years. If in your best judgement you don’t think there is someone available in your slot worthy of that contract, why would you make the pick?
I wouldn’t. I’d try to trade out.
If you need an all star and in your best judgement there are no prospects available in your slot, you can make the pick anyway or push the pick out into the future to be used as an asset in a trade later, to make a pick later, or maybe to combine with other picks to move up. There is value in flexibility also. It’s kind of like being an investor holding cash. There are always better opportunities in the market than cash, but sometimes you want dry powder available for a truly spectacular opportunity in the future even if you don’t know what it might be yet.
The marginal wins are tougher to defend, but you have to put something in cap space if you can’t land a star or younger prospect like Brunson or Hart. The idea would be to try to put attractive contracts in that space so they can be moved in a trade. I think the 1st year they did fine, but they found themselves in a tough spot last year when the struck out in free agency and decided to bring back the same team. They clearly made some mistakes even if I can understand the predicament.
No other teams trade out of first round picks in order to retain picks to “trade for a star.” It just isn’t done.(*)
Even really good teams exercise their first round pick, even when it’s in the late 20s. Teams don’t say “oh, we have no room for a role player.” (**) In fact, most of them say, “We think we can get a guy who will be better than a role player.”
So people are asking us to sign on to something no other front office does — for obvious reasons — and we’re therefore supposed to conclude somehow that a former agent, in conjunction with James Dolan, has somehow reinvented association front office best practices.
Sorry, no sale. I mean, honestly, how could anyone possibly believe such a thing?
(*) Since this is a “never” type statement that is virtually always not 100% accurate, I will stipulate that there are probably some very rare outliers there where a team didn’t want to pay the luxury tax or something and so sold the 27th pick or somesuch. (I seem to remember Sarver doing it in his cheaper days.) But that’s an entirely different thing — (a) those picks were way lower; and (b) they weren’t traded to hoard them for the future.
(**) The 37-win mercentiled Knicks thinking they have “no room” for a guy picked 13th or 19th or even 32nd is the stuff of pathos. Red noses, big oversized clownshoes, and joy buzzers all around.
The Knicks didn’t literally trade the pick for nothing, despite some contention otherwise. That’s the only time that calculation would be warranted.
The calculation is whether any of the players remaining in this draft have a higher speculative value than players in future drafts based on likely finishes of the team you’re trading with.
In other words, it still comes down to player evaluation. They were horribly wrong about Cam’s value, but that would still fit into the player evaluation mistake you think is okay.
There’s a 2nd value calculation, because draft picks have two different values, player value and trade value.
The trade value of a player you draft is affected by playing time. A draft pick is not. So on a crowded roster, a pick has higher trade value than a player. Of course, protections, the picks original team’s talent level, and the market affect the trade value also. Rose perhaps overestimated the trade value of protected picks (maybe some non-Ainge GM will think differently, maybe Ainge would’ve valued actual players even lower).
Whether or not the trade value of the protected picks is greater than the value of a benched player is perhaps a better question. Although, admittedly Rose was in fact wrong about not having playing time opening up (or maybe not because Thibs might’ve played Burks anyway… but that’s a whole other discussion).
Other teams not doing something is poor justification. There’s plenty of other reasons other teams won’t do something. There’s a reason we don’t accept the “NBA teams are perfectly or even close to perfectly efficient” hypothesis. I’m not sure why we’d do so now.
Maybe it turns out to be a really dumb strategy. Or maybe they’ve discovered a market inefficiency based on more accurate future draft pick valuations that other teams will copy.
Good or bad, what I like about this office is precisely that they’re willing to do something different. If you do the same things other teams do, you get the same results as other teams. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
And I’m not betting on Dolan, or even really Rose, I’m betting on Brock Aller & Walt Perrin.
I really like a lot of things about this team. I think we have good youth and I really like the Brunson and Hart signings. I am ready to let go of the terrible decisions to trade out of last year’s draft and trade our best pick in the one before but I am worried about future drafts. The 2021 draft was an incredibly deep draft and we couldn’t find anyone to draft at 19, last year we had a #11 and were interested in no one.
What makes people think next year or the year after will be any different?
If I could count on us running this team like a normal franchise and actually using our picks moving forward I could probably get behind Rose and company. I like this offseason, and I like every player they have drafted so far, but drafting good players only matters if you actually use your draft picks.
It is true that Aller and Perrin are very highly regarded. The question is whether they are being “influenced” by less highly regarded folks like Thibs and Wes. For example, it was Wes that kept calling for drafting IQ…possibly overruling Perrin. It was Thibs who likely convinced Leon to “run it back” with the mercs, who referred to Aller as Hinkie, who sabotaged Kemba, who kept rolling with Julius at Obi’s expense, etc..
It’s quite possible that Aller and Perrin had a major hand in the 2022 draft night moves, with the directive to find a way to create cap space without any dead cap, which I’m sure Aller hates. My guess is that Perrin weighed in and said there is no one outside of these guys who seems worth the flexibility cost of dead cap space to draft.
We can second-guess this to death, but it seems like a B+ to B- set of decisions to me. I really liked some guys in that range and would like to have picked someone there. But I like the picks we picked up as well, I like that Burks, Kemba, and Noel are gone, and I like that we have Brunson and Hart with no dead cap via a Kemba waive and stretch.
Love you, EB!
I’m looking forward to seeing Hartenstein play (nickname ideas?) tonight. In fact, I’m more interested in the 2nd unit in general. They seem… dare I say… better? (than the first unit minus Brunson).
One idea I would like to push back against.
We didn’t get Donovan therefore our draft picks are worthless.
This just isn’t true.
Danny Ainge is notorious for extracting as much as possible in trades. Good for him. He got what he wanted. But just because Ainge is an ahole who held out beyond ridiculousness for Donovan doesn’t mean the next GM we deal with will do the same.
Any big time player we get in a trade is going to cost us. But just because Ainge wanted 20 first round picks or whatever doesn’t mean our first round picks are worthless. IT just means Ainge is a dick. And he was able to do that because Mitchell was under team control for a long time and is still very young. But a slightly older all star player who is closer to expiring may not cost as much and that GM might be totally cool with four or five first round picks as payment.
My prediction for this season. 48 wins. We’re going to be much improved and we’re going to make the playoffs. People will be happy. Knickerblogger will return to more peaceful times.
Ugh! Whyyyyyy is this dreary day moving so slow? Why is it not game time yet?
I bet if this was an off day for me, it would have been game time 5 hours ago! Ain’t that some sheeeeit??! LOL
In all seriousness- I’m kinda sad we won’t get to see Grimes tonight because he’s gonna have to take the starting SG job from Fournier- best fit be damned. Fournier is so much more than a Duncan Robinson. Meaning you can’t turn him into strictly a spot up shooter. He’s been lead dog on a team too much for that. His best spot is playing the wing with the 2nd unit where you can afford to put the ball in his hands a little more. A 2nd unit of Rose/Quickley/Fournier/Obi/Hartenstein can stay on the floor for long stretches when needed and keep us in the game or give us a huge offensive spark when the starters are slowing down during a game. That’s just the better option. Sucks for Cam- but unless we move D Rose- Cam might never play other than garbage time, and at that point we will undoubtedly have wasted the pick in the trade for him. And I don’t think the team should look to trade Fournier unless it’s matching salary in a big trade. Question is, what hurts worse? Wasting the Cam trade or moving Rose to a contender? Sucks that we can’t keep both guys. But if I was forced to make a decision, I’d painfully trade Rose. He is this team’s Sprewell in terms of impact and favor from fans.
Dammit man! I hate this lol
Geo, use this odds calculator and you’ll get the answers you need. 😉
This is amazing. I was fearing that Hart’s defense would be way worse than Mitch’s, but looks like that won’t be the case.
“And as I’ve said many times, the Knicks passed over him 3 times, meaning that they just weren’t going to pick him, period”
Yes, it is quite possible the Knicks would’ve done something stupid if they kept the pick, too. It continues to befuddle me as to how this excuses the fact that they did something clearly stupid by trading it (a characterization of the transaction I think you’ve finally come around on, since you correctly characterized the Charlotte pick as having mediocre value recently).
“I’ve said often that if the Knicks had just picked McBride at #19 and Grimes at #21, the criticism would have been much more muted.”
Unless Miles McBride’s NBA trajectory changes fairly quickly, this would’ve been a mediocre-to-bad draft performance if it occurred.
“PS if the Knicks drafted Hyland, who would he have replaced in Thibs’ rotation?”
Maybe no one! But I don’t think “even if the Knicks’ front office drafted a good player, which they probably wouldn’t have, would the coach the Knicks’ front office hired have ever played him? Checkmate.” is as exculpatory of the front office.
Bones played rotation minutes for a 48 win team. If our coach couldn’t have found minutes for him on our 37 win team, that’s on our coach, and by extension our front office.
“Most people here want a total crash and burn rebuild via draft. They want to get rid of anyone that is old enough to have a problem with 5:00 shadow.”
Z-Man and I have our disagreements, but I’ve always felt like he reads what I have to say and thoughtfully tries to respond.
You don’t. You just mischaracterize what other people say while repeating highly dubious logic in some cases and outright falsehoods in others. I can only assume it’s because you don’t have any half-decent responses to the arguments people actually make.
“I understand both those points, but I’ve tried to explain the logic of trading out of a pick without necessarily making a judgment on the details of what we did because I have no special insights into the draft other than the data on average
When you make a 1st round pick, you are committing to a player at a set rate for multiple years. If in your best judgement you don’t think there is someone available in your slot worthy of that contract, why would you make the pick?”
Everyone understands the “logic.” It doesn’t take any special level of knowledge. The problem is the logic was stupid at the time, and looks even stupider in hindsight.
What you don’t seem to understand is that we can easily evaluate the judgment employed in the whole “in their best judgment, there was no one worth the 4/$11M deal the 19th overall pick gets” thing.
If it turns out there was such a player available, or worse yet multiple players available, obviously worth such a contract, then they were badly wrong about this.
Many laymen thought the trade was bizarre, because just with the rudimentary prospect-evaluation tools available to us it seemed blatantly obvious there indeed such players available.
Whaddya know? There were a plethora of players available that would be valuable to us on the rookie-scale deal for the 19th overall pick.
We all understand the shitty, now literally falsified logic they used to arrive at the conclusion that wouldn’t be the case. We’re just saying it was shitty, now literally falsified logic.
I don’t like Leon Rose’s approach to the draft, and I’m not impressed with the paper clip trades. He has made some decent individual picks, but leveraging the draft and squeezing value out of it is not his strong suit by a long shot.
I’d say the same about his roster construction. The pieces we have are decent, but don’t complement each other all that well, so the starting lineup doesn’t really have enough spacing or defense, and probably isn’t going to be great on either side of the ball.
The team has good depth though, and the bench will probably rack up some good numbers, much like last season. Because of their depth the Knicks should be able to deal with injuries relatively well. There are some decent players on the team who will probably have trouble finding minutes, and there are few truly bad players in the team’s top 12.
I see a narrow bandwith of possibilities to this team: they won’t likely win fewer games than last year, but they’re not going to be a top 5 team in the East either. I’ll go with 42-40.
been thinking about your nerd proclivities poindexter and love for some classic super immersible fantasy/sci-fi stories/worlds…
any book series/stories that are more recently done that you’ve been able to dive in to?
a couple of years ago, finally read through The Hunger Games and absolutely loved it…
“a characterization of the transaction I think you’ve finally come around on, since you correctly characterized the Charlotte pick as having mediocre value recently”
Not really, my position has always been that the actual 19th pick we traded had somewhat mediocre value, and that the CHA protected pick had somewhat (but not much) less value. I think an unmade pick retains more value than a made pick who doesn’t pan out as hoped (e.g. a future top-10-protected that is likely to convey (like our DET or Wash picks) is worth more than Cam Reddish. However, if the pick does pan out, it is worth more in a trade (I think that’s true for all of IQ, Grimes, or aBones.) Since the out-of-the-blue Miles Bridges situation, that pick probably lost value compared to what it had when we traded it for Cam. But at the time of the Cam trade, it was probably worth about the same as the guys picked between 19 and 24 in that draft, maybe a “second rounder” less.
“Unless Miles McBride’s NBA trajectory changes fairly quickly, this would’ve been a mediocre-to-bad draft performance if it occurred.”
In hindsight perhaps, but not according to many draft boards at the time, including yours.
“Maybe no one! But I don’t think “even if the Knicks’ front office drafted a good player, which they probably wouldn’t have, would the coach the Knicks’ front office hired have ever played him? Checkmate.” is as exculpatory of the front office.
Bones played rotation minutes for a 48 win team. If our coach couldn’t have found minutes for him on our 37 win team, that’s on our coach, and by extension our front office.”
This is a stretch. It is certainly arguable that a) IQ is the better player than Hyland, and even on DEN would have competed for that same rotation spot and b) Hyland only got the opportunity he did because of the injuries to Murray and MPJ. Credit him for making the most of it, but let’s not assume that it would have been available either here or there under different circumstances, especially given his obvious deficiencies on D.
“Z-Man and I have our disagreements, but I’ve always felt like he reads what I have to say and thoughtfully tries to respond.”
Thanks, the feeling is very mutual. I think we have both flirted with the line sometimes but more due to sheer volume and semantic inefficiency than willful disrespect.
At the end of the day, we are both frustrated diehards who desperately want a return to at least the ’90s level of success, although I at least got to fully savor the greatest era in Knicks history and maybe am somewhat less aggrieved than younger fans.
Derrick Rose got injured. Tom Thibodeau played Alec Burks at point guard. The season before he played Elfrid Payton.
As TNFH noted, if someone like Bones Hyland wouldn’t get minutes on last year’s Knicks because of the peculiarities of the coach the FO hired and therefore the FO decided to incinerate the pick rather than draft Bones Hyland, that’s on the FO.
I do indeed fear that the Knicks FO hired a coach that flat out prefers players like Alec Burks and Elfrid Payton to young players like Bones Hyland. He’s rather play a 30 year old merc out of position, and a 26 year old stiff than incur the “risk” of playing a 21 year old rookie.
There’s ample evidence of that and there’s really very little evidence to the contrary.
How could they possibly have calculated the speculative value of players in a future draft in an undetermined year to make that comp? It’s impossible. Ptmilo can’t even do that.
All evidence points to the fact that this was a bet on future value that they lost horribly when subsequent trade negotiations exposed the real value of those picks. Our only hope is that Leon learned from those negotiations.
Most gambling odds are based on betting $100 or winning $100. +295 means that if you bet $100 you will $295; -295 would mean you need to bet $295 to win $100. So DRed’s betting $50 to win $197.50.
Bones is a baller. He’d be one of our best young players.
As a rookie combo guard, he was in the 59th percentile for points per shot attempt among combo guards and in the 80th percentile for usage.
He was in the 56th percentile for FG% at the rim (the primary reason I’d take him over IQ without much difficulty, sadly) and in the 53rd percentile for 3PT%.
He averaged 19/5/5 per 36 minutes. Again, this was all as a rookie combo guard. Those guys tend to have rough learning curves.
Having either a shitty Charlotte pick or Cam Reddish in his stead, depending on how you choose to view the series of transactions, is a major loss.
The front office has egg all over its face for that one. No two ways about it.
That’s not exactly the idea, Swifty.
The idea is that the picks are worth considerably less than Leon expected. We gave up 2 in the hand for one in the bush. The counterargument seems to be “well we knew the two in the hand weren’t good,” but I don’t find it very persuasive.
I appreciate the compliments Strat & ess-dog!!
I will say as caveats to my own post:
(1) the pick valuation could be wrong
(2) the player evaluation could be wrong
(3) given that it’s the Knicks, the process could actually be much dumber than that
But if I were to reverse engineer a strategy that makes sense, that’s what I’d come up with.
I still think the 19th pick is questionable. It was a strong draft, the upside wuth CHA’s pick wasn’t very up. Maybe the trade value was worth it because Bones would be expected to ride the pine? Idk, doesn’t matter, Cam Reddish is garbage.
If I recall correctly, our now absentee draft expert, DjPhan, had Josh Christopher ranked in his top-10 or something that year. He was available at 19 and showed a lot of promise last year. That kind of valuation would make the risk on him worth taking over whatever future value 19 might have.
I feel this way about, say, a restaurant. I don’t think we had to reinvent the wheel here, though. Some tried and true methods would be nice.
You fool! Had you bet on them to go to the Finals, we could have watched them to to the Conference Finals.
Just curious – what gambling sites do folks prefer? I’m only aware of the method taught to me by my grandfather – the guy sitting in the side table by the seedy bar with a notepad.
Each time you make a pick in the NBA it is like a small lottery ticket. Some have good odds, and some have long odds, but you never know until you make the pick.
Our team is built from late picks that have “made it” in some way or another. Many of our players are late 1st or 2nd rounders. Grimes and IQ are late 1sts, and Brunson, Mitch, and Hart are all 2nd round picks.
I do not understand why we wouldn’t want to roll the dice and make more picks so we can get more players just like them.
We do not need to draft the next Giannis or Leonard to have our pick be successful. Simply having the chance to get good young players on cost-controlled contracts is worth it most of the time. Especially for a developing team like ours.
“Bones is a baller. He’d be one of our best young players.
As a rookie combo guard, he was in the 59th percentile for points per shot attempt among combo guards and in the 80th percentile for usage.
He was in the 56th percentile for FG% at the rim (the primary reason I’d take him over IQ without much difficulty, sadly) and in the 53rd percentile for 3PT%.
He averaged 19/5/5 per 36 minutes. Again, this was all as a rookie combo guard. Those guys tend to have rough learning curves.”
Hyland played 1300 minutes as a rookie. He had a TS% of .558, a 3pt% of .366, a 2pt% of .465 and is a terrible defender.
Here’s a comparison of Bones and IQ’s rookie years:
They played almost the same amount of minutes in the same role, and IQ outperformed Bones in every advanced metric in B-R, including both OBPM and DBPM.
I’d pump the breaks a bit on Hyland before concluding he’s a better player than IQ. Just the defense alone is a dealbreaker. Hyland is legitimately bad (did you read the Forbes piece) while IQ is actually pretty good.
If you want to cherrypick the second half of the year for Bones, you could do the same thing with the post all-star play of IQ, where he was an excellent 2-way player for 600+ minutes after taking a half a year to learn the PG position. in 6 April games he averaged 20-7-9 in 33.6 minutes.
some knick mentions in here, brunson…which teams improved, etc
I recommend using all the betting sites and using their signup bonuses (and other bonuses) as arbitrage opportunities. But only use 1 signup betting bonus at a time, hedge against books that are just playthrough amounts or deposits as signup bonuses. Read the fine print on every offer.
It’s free money.
If you have a higher risk tolerance then it’s a positive expected value to gamble. But you could potentially lose a significant chunk. It’s probably not worth it.
Darkhorse and oddsjam tell you the best returns for arbitraging promos and arbitrage w/o promos (but you need to be quick on pure ones because the lines will change fast). They both have free trials.
Also, I’ve heard the deals in NJ are better than NY. But you can play both.
Also, be aware of tax consequences which differ by state (assuming you choose to follow the law and report the gambling income)
The signup deals have deteriorated quite a bit. So no idea how much it’s worth.
For states newly legalizing gambling, the deals are usually better. I’ve had a friend pay for trips to a state through signup bonuses and still come out ahead (I think or at least heavily subsidized).
Also the books will eventually limit or ban you if you keep making money.
I made a couple grand when the signup bonuses were much higher in CO. Again no idea what they are now.
Draft Kings and FanDuel have the best deals consistently.
MGMs lines are screwy which made me good money.
NBA rules permit Immanuel Quickley and Bones Hyland to be on the court at the same time.
Not surprising, but now it’s official.
Reasons to watch tonight:
(1) Obi-iHart connection
(3) To marvel at how every Knick is in the best shape of their lives and how much faster the offense is
I’m seeing the Knicks as a 4 1/2 point favorite and -190 to win right now for tonight’s game. Maybe the Knicks are worth a bet just because Thibs will play the starters 40 minutes just to win. 🙂
I haven’t gotten into anything more recent. I’ve been meaning to take a look-see, but haven’t really been able to. Any suggestions?
What’s weird is- usually I can count on my 24 yr old to keep me in tune if I’m not paying attention, but even he has been missing stuff lol. Oddly enough- his inner blerd is probably stronger than mine. The kid has stumbled upon D&D over the past year
I’ll believe it when I see it.
“If I recall correctly, our now absentee draft expert, DjPhan, had Josh Christopher ranked in his top-10 or something that year.”
I’m also a big Christopher fan from that draft and honestly think he should be starting already.
One extra reason to watch tonight, beyond Knicks reasons, is that i’m curious to see Jaden Ivey in action. He was the player i wanted, so it’ll be good to check what he can do.
I could see fewer starters minutes, unlike last year most the starters know the system.
Although I’m also very skeptical, especially if Detroit is within 50 of us.
So wait one damn minute. Am I right that we’re playing a team that has Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Kevin Knox on the roster?
That’s messed up.
game thread…si or no?
oh my gosh, just realized how truly desperate those words read…
I believe Kemba Walker is still on the roster too. Have not seen an official buyout. He was still on the roster on September 7.
just so i never forget – i still remember raz calling out after halftime during some april game, when no one was here…he had posted like five times in a row or something…and finally posted out: where the fuck is everyone
or something to that effect…ha, that was funny…
well, if there is a new thread, i’m gonna repost this thing, cuz i’m curious to hear what you think poindexter…
i like that way of looking at it…i too try to stay in touch with the kids (20, 11, 8) media choices…what games they play, music, youtube stuff…
the oldest likes R&B soul, watched a bunch of king von vids the other day with the middle…the 8 year old though – he finds someone really off the wall kids shit off of youtube…
i’ll tell ya, if i had to choose a profession from the beginning and start over – youtube kids content…that would be some seriously fun shit right there…do it right, big bank…
it’s been some years now – but, the youngest has started to totally infect my brain at times with some different kids tunes: i’m going on a trip, in my favorite rocket ship
some of that stuff is so incredibly catchy…it just clings there in your mind, for years…
yeah, i don’t really have any new cool fantasy/sci-fi stories to recommend to read…
i think though i may try to make a deal with BC and al…
i’ll read through All Star Superman if al might try Kingdom Come (maybe has already) and if BC will check out Lex Luthor: Man of Steel…which considering it’s BC, i’ll assume he most likely already has…
more so than anything – the work published through the Elseworlds (DC comics) really opened my eyes to the breadth of some truly iconic characters…
i’ve only read a fraction of the Elseworlds titles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Elseworlds_publications
there’s legacy, canon, whatnot – and then there’s established figures dealt with in very new ways…
not sure if your son is gaming D&D or old school board game/dicing it…i’d be interested to know in 2022 what that choice might be…
i’ve been doing elder scrolls online since june 2015…i got 17 toons i keep in cyrodiil (open-world, non-timed pvp zone – 3 alliances, campaigns go for 30 days)…
man, used to go for about 30 to 40 hours a week, down now to about 10 or so…that’s a good thing i guess…i’m getting better sleep at least…
okay, final answer mister poindexter sir – my next “thing” will probably be Marvel’s Darth Vader comic (2015)…i’ve been checking them out on Ebay…i’ll just grab the run…like 25 issues total i think…
similar to a pair of rick & morty la melo pumas i want (i have no idea when i would ever get to wear them), just haven’t decided to grab them yet…
you know, i think i can sort of justify in my mind picking up the sneakers if i think of it as work “gear”…
yeah, that’s the ticket 🙂