(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 8:11:35 PM)
While top prospect Ja Morant remains the favorite to be selected No. 2 overall by theÂ Grizzlies (link), he’s apparently taking no chances, as Jordan Schultz of ESPNÂ reports that the 19-year-old Murray State product will meet with the Knicks in New York CityÂ tomorrow. Morant, who recently underwent a preventative surgical procedure on his right knee, also […]
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 10:22:00 PM)
The Knicks have a pre-draft meeting scheduled with Murray State’s Ja Morant, SNY sources confirm.
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 8:30:31 PM)
Celtics star Kyrie Irving can be a free agent after the season, and the idea that he could team up with fellow free agent Kevin Durant on the Knicks this summer has picked up steam since the Kristaps Porzingis trade cleared two max slots for New York. Here are the latest rumors…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 6:04:27 PM)
The trade winds have officially come in, as Anthony Davis news swirled around on Wednesday afternoon. Here’s what we know so far:
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 3:58:24 PM)
Knicks free agent target Kevin Durant suffered an Achilles injury during Game 5 of the NBA Finals, casting a shadow over his future. Here’s the latest…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 4:02:00 PM)
Pelicans star Anthony Davis has requested a trade, informing the team he has no interest in re-signing. With news of Davis wanting out came reports that the Knicks have strong interest in trading for him. Here are the latest rumors…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 4:45:06 PM)
After Kevin Durant announced Wednesday afternoon that he ruptured his Achilles, the teams interested in Durant are probably asking themselves a question: Do we still pursue him in free agency?
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 9:46:29 AM)
Warriors star Kevin Durant can be a free agent after the season, and the idea that he could join the Knicks this summer took a hit when he suffered an Achilles injury in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Here’s the latest…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 7:26:12 PM)
The emerging narrative Kevin Durant had his ruptured right Achilles tendon repaired by a New York surgeon in spite of the Warriors’ medical staff is bogus, according to one local doctor who watched the tragic injury unfold from afar. “I knew he was coming [to New York],” said New Jersey foot and ankle orthopedic surgeon…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 12:22:44 PM)
OAKLAND, Calif. — The NBA’s worst fears have been confirmed. Kevin Durant, who left in the second quarter of the Warriors’ Game 5 win in Toronto on Monday, indeed ruptured his Achilles tendon. The Warriors star underwent surgery Wednesday in New York, he revealed on Instagram, providing more clarity for his impending free agency. Durant…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 10:10:01 AM)
Kyrie Irving will officially become a free agent. As many expected, the Celtics point guard will not opt in to his $21.3 million deal for next season, becoming eligible to sign a new contract with Boston or elsewhere, according to The Athletic. Irving will hit the open market as one of the top available free…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 7:47:39 AM)
Anthony Davis’ agent is giving the Knicks a chance — but they may want to hurry up. The Celtics and Lakers are both engaged in trade talks with the Pelicans for Davis, ESPN reported Wednesday. Hours earlier, his agent was quoted in a Sports Illustrated story saying the Knicks would be nearly as attractive a…
(Wednesday, June 12, 2019 6:49:31 AM)
OAKLAND, Calif. — A lot has changed on the Kevin Durant free-agency landscape, but the Knicks’ interest in signing him has not, according to people familiar with the club’s plans. The Knicks still have two max salary slots and they still intend to explore making Durant part of the franchise, whether he is able to…
182 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2019.06.13)”
According to Stein the Lakes are offering Ingram, Ball and the No. 4, and the Pelicans insist on adding Kuzma. The Knicks cannot beat this without overpaying, and according to the report they’re not jumping to do so.
Interesting. Although I’ll believe it when I see it, since we know Dolan needs a star and AD would perfect for the job. I can already see the “21st Century Ewing” campaign.
I don’t think Ingram, Ball and no. 4 are enough to pry Davis away unless everyone is suddenly lowballing New Orleans. If the Lakers are forced to add Kuzma to the offer they’ll have a roster of James, Davis, free agent X, Hart, Moritz Wagner, Isaac Bonga, and then? I can easily see them faltering again.
I also think that offer completely removes us from the AD chase, which is not a bad thing at all.
The only star trade the Knicks should be contemplating is Beal for draft picks, Knox, Frank, Dotson and DSJ.
Re: AD trade – I don’t think we have the assets to beat a Lakers offer. If the Celtics get him, I for sure wouldn’t want to trade for him, because he might then just come in FA for nothing but $.
Re: KD – You basically cannot win an NBA title without a generational talent on your team. Getting a generational talent on your team without having to give up tangible assets (players/picks) is something that is hard to pass up. Now of course cap space is a tangible asset too, but when you have lots of players on rookie contracts and lots of draft picks coming up, that issue is mitigated to some extent.
Another consideration is how much the cap is expected to jump in the next few years. Cap is $109MM in 2019-20 and $116MM projected in 2020-2021. Conservatively/wildly guessing that the cap will be $119MM in 2021-22 and $122MM in 2022-23, even a max contract value of $44MM in 2022-23 (the last year of a 4 year 10+ player max deal) is still “only” 36% of the cap.
I’m not saying it’s a low risk move, but signing Durant even missing 2019-20 seems like it could be a high reward / medium risk move.
Having all the 1st rounders really changes the calculus. If Durant is not himself, then you can just build slowly around him with your picks. If Durant IS himself post-surgery, then those draft picks can be moved for win-now players around him.
The best scenario at this point would be for KD to miss the entire season rehabbing, team sucks again but we some development from the young kids, rent excess cap space for picks, we get another high pick in a much better draft, still have cap space in 2020-21 summer to sign help, and then Durant comes back as some semblance of himself with veteran help signed with 2020 cap space and young kids that are more developed AND we still have all the draft picks.
If by “draft picks” you mean the protected Dallas one and a second rounder, maybe.
How does Beal move the needle unless he is a 2nd or third option on offense? As it stands he would be #1. If he came with an uninjured Durant already signed I can see it, but that ship has sailed.
Why would we want to trade for Beal? So we can try to win 30 games next year?
I don’t think this is true, but even if it is true, Frank needs confidence in his offensive game, not just more skill. Making successive shots like he said he did should help his confidence.
On the subject of it being true, you need to make 55% of your threes to make 5 in a row once in twenty times. That’s not a great percentage for practice threes (which usually have a much higher percentage than in game threes) But it is not bad either.
Beal is 26 years old and the Knicks may not have to mortgage their future to obtain him. Why wouldn’t the Knicks pursue him, especially if our free agent options for 2019 and 2020 are suddenly not so hot?
I guess the treadmill of mediocrity is the reason. That said, the new lottery makes it so that even finishing with the 8th record might not be that bad, given that finishing dead last guarantees you just the 5th pick.
I wouldn’t be opposed to getting Beal, but not for more than a conditional first rounder (and young, mostly useless salary filler).
I follow almost everything Knicks on Twitter and it’s funny how different the conversation is over there than here. Twitter is ablaze with the news that Kyrie switched his agent to Roc-A-Nation yesterday and that this must mean he is going to the Nets. Possibly KD too since his business partner was formerly (still is?) there.
I hate to say it, but I don’t totally dismiss the logic.
Ah, I mean, whatever. I can see the logic in choosing the Nets. I also think if you’re choosing the Nets over the Knicks you don’t really understand the concept of “legacy”.
There are certain untangible things that contribute to the magnitude of what kind of footprint you leave in the NBA. Unless you’re in the LeBron/MJ/Curry/Bird/Magic stratosphere, where you play also defines the type of legacy you’ll carry around.
It sounds (and it is) corny, but winning a ring for the Knicks is something entirely different from winning a ring for the Nets. There are no decades of squandered noblesse to put a basketball balm upon. There is no historically cynical fanbase thirsty as hell for the promised land. Hell, there’s no MSG. So yeah, while choosing the Nets over the Knicks kind of makes sense from a here and now basketball point of view, if you care about your legacy there are only three places in the whole league where to play: the Lakers, the Celtics and the Knicks.
According to Woj in the article above, Durant really doesn’t want to opt in and is open to less than max deals to get the security of extra years. Hmmmm. Sounds to me like we still might sign him and then brag about getting a Melo sized discount (just shy of max).
This is why I wouldn’t be shocked if AD gets traded to LA and is available via free agency next summer. They’re a mess. I’m surprised he wants to tie his wagon to late-career LeBron and a dysfunctional organization.
I think this applies more to the average Knicks fan than folks here, but I still thought it was worth sharing (from @NOTSportsCenter):
That would be awesome
I take about as much joy in being right about Frank as I would about being right about insisting I had a heart attack when all of the doctors told me it was indigestion. We’ve all said our share of dumb things and died on some pretty dopey hills. Except Jowles, of course. The only saving grace is that it shut Ntilakilla up for the most part. No one was more wrong than him.
I would respectfully take issue with JK’s assertion: “I didn’t think there was enough to go on eye test-wise to call Ntilikina a likely bust.” which implies that my objection to drafting Frank and gloomy predictions were based on the eye test. There was zero statistical evidence from his time in France to suggest that he would ever be a PG (my main gripe) or anything but a 3-and-D role player. There were scouting reports that laid out all of his technical flaws (only goes east and west, no explosion or elite athleticism, limited ball-handling skills, questionable finishing, inconsistent shooting, zero shot creation abilities. There was literally nothing to hang your hat on other than U18 performance and wingspan. My point was less that he was a sure bust and more that he was a terrible pick at #8 in that draft.
I still believe he has some tools and a good work ethic and might turn out to be a NBA rotation player, but he clearly has a long way to go.
I remember when Beal was considered overrated trash in the stats community. lol
Obviously, the most important aspect of trading for Beal would be the price.
This forum treats our young players (other than Robinson) like they are trash when one of them might be better than Beal in 5 years. I’d way rather move those Dallas picks than a lot of young players.
The reason to make the trade is that he’s a good player. Even if you tank, you are eventually going to get better. Point being, do you want to accelerate it a little and get a mid 20s player who is just starting to peak or do you want to draft higher next year and hope you are lucky enough to draft another player that’s as good as Beal in 5-6 years? A bird in the hand.
After cooling out a little, I’m still strongly against signing Durant.
The window was going to be short no matter what, but now it’s probably going to be shorter and of a lower quality. I’d way rather rent out the space for more picks that we could eventually use in a trade for a star, sign young players that can be part of the future or that can eventually be used to trade for a star, or roll it over.
I don’t want two years of a diminished Durant only to watch him flame out as he moves into his mid 30s. I’d rather add assets and quality to what we are already doing and build long term. We lost a couple of years when KP jumped ship. Let’s just right the ship and move forward long term instead of trading it in for a 2 year quick fix.
A fair recitation of the facts. A very long way, too… but as Yogi once said “It ain’t over til it’s over!”
Have we reached consensus that Kyrie will be a Net…? curious how far i’ve fallen behind the times…
Yeah, a while back that became the chatter. He has always seemed like a guy who sort of wanted his own team, which was why the rumors that he was going to pair with Durant seemed a bit surprising. Here, he gets to join a decent team and become the face of the franchise for a New York team. I think it’s a mistake on his part, but then again, I thought he was foolish for leaving Cleveland so early, as well. He’s an odd duck. He definitely wants to be “the man” and that is what he will be in Brooklyn.
I’m not impressed by that LA offer. I think I might actually prefer Knox to Ingram. Ball doesn’t want to go to NO and he’s been fairly bad, and the #4 isn’t Ja or RJ, so it’s not a great piece (our Mavs pic in a stronger draft might actually be more valuable.)
I’m not saying we should necessarily compete, but I’d definitely want at least Kuzma and maybe more.
I think I’d rather have Tatum/Williams and more picks tbh.
I thought this way too (“how amazing would it be on the Knicks team that returns to glory?”) But if Kyrie and KD do end up with the Nets, I think the decision will have been about having more power within the franchise. A franchise player who comes to the Nets can bring in his own personnel, shun the establishment, etc. The fact that the Knicks have deeper roots mean that you’ll never be more than a player on a roster.
@16 – That’s really funny.
The Lakers are going to mortgage their future for a one-year, 48-win, lose-in-six-in-the-WCSF juggernaut. I cannot fucking wait!
LeBron’s Rich Paul-enabled hubris wastes the end of his storied career! Davis guts his new team Melo-style and is just as pissed off by mediocrity as he was in New Orleans, just before getting injured for the entire playoffs! Lonzo Ball throwing lobs to Zion in a literal swampland that smells like stale piss, all day everyday!
I sure as hell don’t want him, but he’s a solid player who soaks up a ton of usage on big, big minutes. There are worse complementary stars out there, but he’d need to be on a real contender like GSW or HOU to be worth that kind of money.
They ARE trash. “Will they be trash?” is a completely different question.
Adding Beal to a 17-win core is not “accelerating it a little bit.” The Knicks have had, in consecutive seasons, perhaps the worst rookie in the entire class. There is nothing but optimism that suggests the Knicks are in a position to lock in a young core and start adding players who carry them into the first round of the playoffs. They have one exceptional asset in Robinson and the rest are the worst kind of question marks. The Knicks basically have the mid-lottery version of the Lakers’ young core: all sorts of upside, not much to show for it yet. LeBron bet big on those young players and it got him his first early vacation since 2003.
I don’t think it’s a hot take to look at this roster and demand another year or two of turning picks into more picks and hoping that you hit on 33% of them. This is why some of us advocate trading the #3 for some combination of the #8, #10, #17 and #35.
Bradley Beal was always destined to be a Knick. Nothing we do can change it.
I think the problem is this…..it’s not horrible that he made 5 in a row in practice. it’s horrible that he bragged about it. I once hit 10 in a row from the college free line, but you guys dont’ see me tweeting about it. I know he’s working on improving…..but if he’s not already over 50% in practice; that’s a problem
I agree we can do better than ingram, ball and the 4. robinson, knox and the 3 is better than that. so are adding those Dallas picks. I just don’t want to do it.
The only way the Knicks get this right is if they make a mistake. I was sad when we didn’t get Jahlil Okafor but that’s about the only good thing that’s happened in the last few years. We screwed up our tank that year (mistake) and got stuck with KP (better…sorta)
I’m looking forward to some type of scenario like that. The Knicks need to be forced into the right decision.
Kyrie and Tobias Harris on a max will surely turn NY into a Nets town.
I really don’t get why people want to build the Atlantic division version of the Washington Wizards.
If it was Beal plus healthy Durant or Kawhi id be up for it, but getting just Beal? He put up the best numbers in his career this year with a better supporting cast than he would have with us, and they won 32 games. But I forgot some of you really have this never ending love story with 32 win seasons and want to go back to that as soon as possible.
Yeah, I’m a big Bradley Beal fan. But I want him to be the East Coast version of Klay Thompson, i.e. the 3rd guy behind two studs. Not one of the top 2 guys.
We should just refer to this as “Woodsoning”.
Harris has been connected to the Nets for a while now. If he leaves, that trade looks pretty suspect for Philly, as Shamet is a decent player.
Harris and to a lesser extent Beal are exactly the type of players we need to stay the fuck away from. They’re not bad, but they’re also not considerably above average either. Harris especially is just a guy. He’s a great piece on a loaded team like Philly but he would be completely useless for the Knicks. Replacing Knox’s minutes with Harris would make us significantly better, sure, but that’s only because Knox was arguably the worst player in the NBA last year. You could make the Knicks significantly better next year by signing some vet minimum guy to take those minutes.
The reason we’re in this asset poor situation is because we made “win now” moves when the team was shitty. That’s how you end up with Kevin Knox instead of Luka Doncic and Frank Ntilikina instead of De’Aaron Fox, and why we had to find out creative ways to dump Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah and blah blah blah.
Go back ten years and it’s the same thing, just with a different cast of mediocre veterans. Go back 15 years, same thing.
Let’s try it again though! Beal and Harris it is! Should work out splendid.
I, for one, am very torn. What happened to everyone agreeing that signing Durant and tanking another year plus using the remaining cap space for asset acquisition and rolling the dice that he is 80% of the player we are used to then seeing what else the market offers in 20-21?
In the analogy of Beal being our Klay does that work with Durant (after a year of R&R!!!), Robinson (the Draymond Green level player), RJ and what we can do with the remaining cap space and picks? With Kawhi leaving Toronto, the Celtics breaking up that means you are competing with the Bucks and Sixers (who knows where Butler and Tobias end up??) in the EC for the foreseeable future? Yuck.
I’m not a huge fan of Beal or 32 win seasons but people have got to stop comparing proposed moves to some Platonic ideal of what the Knicks, or any team, could look like. Sometimes you can do everything right and it doesn’t matter.
Look at Ainge in Boston. He had one of the best offseasons in league history when he brought in KG and Ray Allen, then followed that up with one of the best trades in league history, then followed THAT up by turning Isaiah Thomas and filler into Kyrie. With all that, he only managed one title, one other trip to the Finals, and could start next season with no Kyrie, no AD, no Horford, no Marcus Morris, and having to wait another year before Hayward’s contract becomes tradable.
You should avoid dumb moves, like gutting your roster for Melo and then giving him ALL the money and a no trade clause for the privilege of watching him decline. That’s not the same as not trading for or signing good and gettable players because you don’t think they fit some hypothetical championship path where 1,000 things will all have to go right in order to come true.
Please no Beal. He strikes me as a #3 guy on a good team. The Knicks lack Batman and Robin.
So, is the latest KD to Knicks thing that he’ll sign a relatively cheap one year deal with a handshake that next year he gets his max? I dunno about that unless Kawhi, for some insane reason, signs here. Kyrie to Nets? YES!
KP turned out to be a mirage, but that mirage should whet our appetite to get our own young star. How? Picks, lots of picks! More lottery tickets.
I will say this until my fingers fall off: in a league with total parity, each franchise would win one title every 30 years.
It is a damn feat to win just one. It is another feat to field a highly competitive team for years on end, especially with complete roster overhauls. Ainge has done both.
The statistics basically say Frank has to be over 50% in practice or he wouldn’t have made the five in a row. If he’s boasting about it, then he thinks he’s improved his shot, which would be great. I hope he keeps doing so. Maybe he shouldn’t have bragged about it, but he’s basically still a kid, so I’ll give him a pass on that.
evaluating a player based on an Instagram workout video is a big part of what we do here
There was a stretch 21 years ago where I went 6/10 from three over the course of four games.
It’s a damn shame there was no IG at the time or that would have been some crazy Dawkins-type highlight reel to put in a story
Yep. It says something that’s it’s barely notable when people say we need to do the same thing again and we’ll get different results. The marginal wins strategy can’t fail, it can only be failed. Sigh.
The latest news about Kemba Walker is pretty meaningless. He says he’d resign with Charlotte even if they didn’t offer him the megamax. They’re obviously not going to offer him the megamax, as they’re not quite that stupid. It really is more like, “You better offer me essentially the mega-max with a Melo-like discount or else I’m leaving.” He goes on to say that if it doesn’t work out, he is fine with leaving, so it’s so weird how the headlines are all about how Kemba is being so loyal to the Hornets. I think his comments were more like a shot across the bow than anything else.
i think i may have gotten a bit of dust in my eye reading this – god bless the new york knickerbockers and our immutable “legacy”…
we truly are the chosen ones…
“evaluating a player based on an Instagram workout video is a big part of what we do here”
…..and three on three workouts
I have a friend who was an end of the bench PG for Texas who led the NCAA in 3 point shooting for like a month by going 2/2
Beal makes sense only if we get Durant (or, somehow, Kawhi or AD) and preferably only after another year of tanking to nab more young players. If we’re just getting him to get him and vault us to 32 win hell, I’m out.
Something called The Score is reporting Durant will miss the entire season.
Unless Kawhi wants to come here for some inexplicable reason, I’d still be into signing KD as long as it’s got *some* discount. Maybe give him a declining contract that starts with the max? I don’t know what the maximum year-to-year drop is, but if went like:
Year 1: $38mm
Year 2: $34mm
Year 3: $32mm
Year 4: $29mm
The reason I’d be willing to take the considerable risk is bc I don’t see any other potential max players being into joining this situation, so the reward is likely higher than any other way we can spent that money. I’d rather be terrible with a Durant lotto ticket than without one. And I’d rather have a Durant lottery ticket than the likes Bradley Beal and Tobias Harris.
It may blow up in our face, but I think we’d have more possibilities in 2020 than we’ve ever had since Ewing was drafted.
I still don’t get why Boston is going so hard after AD. They probably have to give up at least Tatum, and maybe Tatum and Brown, and even if Kyrie stays, that team is still not the favorite to win the Eastern Conference. Then AD leaves after a 1 year rental and what are they left with?
LA makes a lot more sense with LeBron possibly entering his decline phase and management desperate for a 2nd star
Man there is no way we get a discount to get Durant, the nets will offer the max and so will GS… Hell even the lakers/clippers might too….
I’m looking at online poll that asks “which Lakers trade asset is the most valuable?”
And it’s essentially a four-way tie between Lonzo, the #4 pick, Ingram, and Kuzma. Which means that there’s no consensus but also, I think, that these are some pretty equally underwhelming trade chips.
I think Ainge’s reasoning is that if Leonard leaves Toronto, and then either Harris or Butler leaves Philly, there’s a good chance the east is considerably weaker next season. The Bucks have every role player outside of Giannis and Bledsoe to re-sign yet, so there’s also a chance they’ll be weaker. He might be seeing a window for getting AD, which then could entice Kyrie to stay and they would have a pretty good shot at reaching the finals against a west that should also be a weird conference if Durant is out for the year and Leonard goes to the Clippers for example. I think it’s incredibly risky but I don’t hate the reasoning, it’s just that a ton of moving pieces have to fall in the right places for it to work.
Yeah, sign me up for a GM who can get us one championship, two finals appearances and multiple ECF in the course of a decade without any real painful rebuilding years of being bottom dwellers.
Thing is, if KG doesn’t get hurt the year after they won a championship, they probably repeat and they were one minute away from winning the second time they made the finals.
The statistics basically say Frank has to be over 50% in practice or he wouldn’t have made the five in a row.
not true. they said he was taking 1000 threes a day.
I think it was Chris Brickley who said you’ll shoot roughly half the 3pt percentage in games as you do in practice. So a legit 40% 3 point shooter will hit 80 out of 100 3’s shooting by himself in a gym.
Not sure if he has data on that but I believe it. One of my buddies in college ended up playing pro in Taiwan of all places — not good enough to sniff Europe or even China. But i rebounded for him one afternoon some years ago and it seemed he didn’t miss for 5-10 minutes at a time, shooting both lefty and righty from (college) 3 point range.
If I shot 1000 3s I’d hit five in a raw too, even though I’d have to jump and use a throwing motion to get to the rim at around the 50th shot onwards.
Instead of giving away actual assets for Bradley Beal we can just offer Malcolm Brogdon a 4 year deal worth like $20M per year and get a better player. I know Brogdon is restricted, but attempting to sign Brogdon away from Milwaukee (who has a ton of tough decisions to make and just drafted his replacement last year in DiVencenzo) is better than having to overpay Washington for its only asset.
Bol Bol’s workout tape from yesterday really reminds me of KP’s in 2015.
The statistics I did was to calculate the chance of hitting five in a row for different intrinsic true make probabilities. If the the true make probability is 50% then you will only hit five in a row 3% of the time. So you have to be trying to hit the same shot and to be shooting repetitive shots something like one hundred times. It’s true he said he’s trying about a thousand threes a day, but I doubt they are the same type of three. I have no idea what sort of three pointer he was trying (just standing still, off the dribble, catch and shoot or whatever), so it’s hard to do exact statistics and probably not worth doing so. But he’s a twenty year old who seems to be working hard and thinks he’s getting better. I’m ok with that and suspect he is getting better.
you miss a 100% of the shots you don’t take
okay then, so if frank shoots a scorching 50% from 3, with his otherworldly (2) 3pt fga per game, frank will be pouring in an amazing 3 points from behind the arc per game instead of the sub 1 point he’s currently averaging…
holy shit, it’s been a while since i looked at frank’s stats…he’s averaging a little less than six points and a little more than 2 rebounds a game…not a bad 3 assists per game, until you remember he’s supposed to be a point guard…sadly, his “advanced” stats look even worse…
i still like him a lot better than mud though…i’m honestly not sure what to make of DSJ…
Once Wall went down Beal was really good- 27pts, 6 assists, 5 boards (.588 TS%, 26.7 assist %, 29.7 usage, 11.00 turnover%. That’s basically Lillard’s numbers. If you think those #’s are sustainable he’s more than a third wheel- probably worth the third pick plus whatever flotsam is needed to make the salaries match. Like most, I still wouldn’t pull the trigger unless you know there’s a second max guy who’ll be the Batman to his Robin coming.
It’s true he said he’s trying about a thousand threes a day, but I doubt they are the same type of three
even if so, there is no law of instagram that bars you from showing 5 in a row from a different spot or combining two spots. when someone is self selecting their data it makes a lot of sense to use the the total sample. actually this is pretty friendly because he was not obligated to post a streak from any particular day so the sample population could have been much higher.
The statistics I did was to calculate the chance of hitting five in a row for different intrinsic true make probabilities. If the the true make probability is 50% then you will only hit five in a row 3% of the time.
not to get absurdly technical but since i seem to remember you know the math this is a discrete markov chain problem but by now is embedded in all kinds of software bc it’s so useful for gamblers. if you take 1000 threes with only a 35% chance of making there’s about a 96% chance you hit 5 straight at some point. even it’s only 300 attempts you still have about a 64% chance of hitting at least five straight.
Sign KD for every penny you can give him. (Try not to give him a no trade clause, aw, why’m I even saying that?) Stash him on the injured list. Draft RJ. Preserve cap space unless it’s like Brogdon as mentioned at #60. Give some kids on the team a chance to be part of the future. Next summer Anthony Davis.
i go a weird one for ya danvt…
from time to time we have these slightly divergent discussions (some of my favorite 🙂 concerning music, and, we’re lucky enough to have a bunch of regular posters who themselves are musicians/artists…
i seem to remember you mentioning that you participated in making music – i was just curious if there was a particular genre or instrument which you enjoyed most…
there’s really no point to a 2+1 or 3+1 for Durant unless one is assuming the +1 is for the team? I guess you could give him a player option for a lower amount say $15M-$20M so that way if he is a complete mess he can opt in and make a good last pay check and the Knicks get some $ savings on the cap hit.
Have we discussed this yet? Congrats to latke for daring to dream pessimistically!
Copied this post to Lady Jowles and she said it gave her stress flashbacks (I’m guessing to the stochastic processes class she took in undergrad)
Depending on how you look at that, I’m either 1st or 2nd on that list. That’s an accomplishment as far as I’m concerned.
I don’t see it. You have to have a very specific set of circumstances to be willing to use a max slot on a guy who won’t play for an entire season. Like, for one thing you have to be so shit that it helps you if he doesn’t play a year. For another, you have to have no other realistic option. The Nets, Clippers, Lakers would definitely not do it bc they want to win next year and will have decent alternative ways to spend their money.
The warriors might, but if I had to guess they’ll make a nice offer to avoid the PR hit and be glad we beat it and sign him.
Whoa, I was looking at BBRef and saw that the Lakers played Scott Machado this season.
He’s an old KB UFA favorite. Where’s Nick Fazekas going to play 16 minutes next year?
Signing KD plus one superstar (Kawhi, Kyrie,) or (Cousins plus one) without trading any picks could be the pipedream. Playoffs without durant is good. no playoffs without durant means we have a pick plus durant for 2020 wc is a good start for the decade.
He gets paid the max for his rehab season and for his first season back, and if he looks great he can opt out and get a longer term deal.
But sure, it makes more sense for him to get the 4 or 5 years now.
We will not be hurt if we dont trade picks and young assets. just maximize our money for free agency. Trading assets to use our money seems bad for me.
I’m sorta warming up a bit to the idea of signing KD now and letting him rehab the entire year. Yes, it’s still incredibly risky and if it backfires, the result is absolutely terrible, but the 2020 draft looks pretty good and if the Celtics trade for Davis, there’s a really big chance he’s a free agent next season. That scenario is potentially the one where we end up in the best position, with a healthy KD plus AD plus Barrett or whoever else and next years hopefully top 5 pick, while Mitch is still under a very cheap contract.
I still think way too many things have to fall into place perfectly for it to work out (Durant recovering well, Davis getting traded to a rental team and then leaving, a good pick next season, but it is enticing.
@78 if we don’t give up any assets the AD availability issue is not existential. There will be other options to use that money. You are not mortgaging the future at all. You bank on KD being a really really good player. Even if he isn’t top 5 or 10 he really helps the young guys grow and we have the ability to acquire more. So the arc is use KD to get “good”. Somewhere between 45-50 wins. If no other current star joins you figure 30%-40% of your young assets really improve into plus players. E.g. Mitch and RJ/Knox/Trier/2020 pick. Then transition off KD as his contract ages and you have a more mature, better team and understand how to build around it. Who to pay or not pay etc.
The day after that list was posted, I wrote this:
Not latke-esque, but still…
Oh, and I was obviously wrong as hell about Atlanta!
How will we be feeling a week from today?
Hard pass on Beal thanks. It has Amare 2.0 written all over it (and I loved STAT back when he was playing like an MVP).
I am starting to warm to the idea of signing KD and doing a stealth tank while he takes a year to recover. I doubt he takes a discount, but knowing you have KD locked up when you could also be adding a lottery pick the season he is due to make his comeback isn’t a terrible scenario in my mind. Whichever path we take, as long as we avoid signing/trading for faux max guys (Harris, Beal, Russell et al) I think there can still be a lot of positive directions the FO can take despite missing on Zion and KD getting hurt.
The draft will feel like dancing with your sister. Yeah RJ is nice, but he’s not Zion.
Atlanta was a black box, though. There was no way to know that Young, Spellman and Huerter would be adequate NBA players this soon. If they develop as expected, and the FO continues to make smart value moves, they are going to be a force by 2022. If they land Clarke, they have an offense that could have 3 guys with 100+ dunks next year, many coming from the franchise PG with the dirt ‘stache.
The only crow that needs eatin’ is when someone makes this kind of prognostication with a team full of veterans, e.g. the people who thought that the Lakers were a 55-win team are the ones with a mouthful of bird.
If Kyrie Irving decides he wants the Nets and not the Knicks, he will be the most hated basketball player in New York City. That’s a terrible idea for a guy who wants to live in New York, and signing with the Nets is a bad idea because Brooklyn natives don’t even come to the games. I’m from Brooklyn and I struggle to find reasons to actually watch their games.
Also, if Durant comes without Kyrie Irving, I think our best bet would be to try to assemble something similar to what Utah has with the idea that KD + Robinson/Barrett/tough defensive minded role players could get you over the hump in the Eastern Conference. It’s hard to see something like:
PG: Smith Jr, Kadeem Allen
SG: Brogdon, Trier
SF: Barrett, Ntilikina, (Durant)
PF: Knox, Vonleh
C: Robinson, Kornet
Actually being a mid 40s win team with upside, but that’s essentially what you’re hoping to add Durant to if you’re going to sign him for his age 32-34 seasons. You would need massive improvements from Smith Jr and Knox, RJ Barrett would have to be productive enough to emulate Donovan Mitchell (who is overrated but still), and Mitchell Robinson would have to have the fouling under control by then. I guess it’s possible, but it’s very hard to go from 17 wins to 44 wins when you’re dedicating $38M to a guy who can’t play.
The real question is, if we sign Durant by himself, do we have the ability to turn our resources (player development and roughly $32M in cap space) into 25 extra wins on the season? I’m leaning towards no, but if Durant is for sure still coming then we better have a great plan.
This is a solid takedown of Mark Jackson but I could do much better.
I liked Trae Young, but it was 100% unexpected how productive he was as a rookie on a weak team. I figured as most rookie guards he would take at least 2 to 3 years to start showing some real production, and it only took him about half a season to improve a lot. We all focused a lot on whether he would be able to score, but didn’t give him enough credit for his exquisite passing and court vision.
So it looks like this board has come to terms with the Ks taking R.J. at #3 as the best (or is it most likely?) option. Part of me still favors trading down, but only for three picks, not two. But maybe that’s pointless in a supposedly shallow draft?
Lets draft RJ. Dont trade him.
June 21, 2018 at 8:17 pm
I think Atlanta is dumb for not taking Donic, but Trae Young is super skilled. At least they didn’t trade him for Bagley
How much would it cost Dolan to make you GM, DRed?
Not much at all.
I think the basis for being skeptical of Young was valid. He just turned out to be more of an outlier than we anticipated. Probably says more about the “art” of drafting than anyone’s basketball analysis skills. I still take Donic over him, but the gap probably isn’t as dramatic as initially thought when the trade was made.
Bol Bol’s first 9 games this season were pristine on the statline. He easily could have been the #2 pick in this year’s draft without injury.
If Young had not been traded for Doncic people would have been a lot more optimistic with him. It was more the fallout of a decision where one guy seemed like a sure NBA star and the other was just a potential guy, and then for a while in the start of the season Doncic was impressing everyone while Trae struggled. I would also still take Doncic, but I agree the gap is far smaller than I expected it to be.
The thing about Trae Young is he’s already a good shooter and passer, and he just has to continue on his current trajectory in order to be an All Star in the NBA. Luka Doncic is really more hype than substance at this point, and I’m surprised I’m the only person around here who has mentioned it. He had a Porzingian .101 WS/48 this season, but BPM and VORP are more generous to him. Doncic wasn’t a great shooter in Europe and he still isn’t a great shooter. The future is bright for Doncic, but his draft class has a shot to be historically great. I know for sure I’d rather have Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, John Collins, and 3 top 20 picks in this draft than have Doncic, Porzingis, and no 1st round picks in 3 of the next 5 drafts.
That’s really good. There have been 13 rookies 19 or younger since 1979 to have a WS/48 above .100. They didn’t all turn out to be great, but it’s definitely a good start for Luka.
I think Game 6 Klay has turned up today.
What if I told you #2 overall pick Marvin Bagley had a .110 WS/48 and he was born two weeks after Luka Doncic?
Warriors had 6 TOs and the Raptors drained 7 out of 14 threes in that first quarter.
Golden State is only down by 1 point.
I’d say this is a very positive start for the Warriors all things considered.
I’d definitely be open to Beal as a knick but he is a number 2 guy but he is better all around 2 guard than McCollum, Middleton, and possibly Klay
this is a classic Game 6 so far
Yeah. I’m on board with taking RJ. I’m not on board about paying for Durant. Those that are advocating that This article from the Big Lead is my big concern. I keep hearing about Dominque Wilkins recovery but the statistics just say that it’s like going all-in looking to draw an inside straight. It’s a dumb bet. Our dream of Zion-Durant-Kyrie has become a nightmare. Good thing we have experience dealing emotionally with that kind of outcome… and the 2018/19 season isn’t even over yet!
I’m also not on the “trade everyone for AD” bandwagon either. I think he’s really good but not good enough to trade away the farm for. And when did that tactic ever get us a championship?
What team can we possibly put together to compete with the Celtics, Raptors, Nets and Sixers next year with the free agents that are out there? I haven’t heard too many good ideas except the ones where we target a couple of really good FA with a nice upside and who can provide veteran leadership.
That being said, this is an awesome game we’re watching.
i wouldn’t mind seeing one more game in this finals…this is really good stuff…
It’s like watching a war
Very good game. Go Raps!
Are you not entertained? This is NBA action at its finest.
Game 6 Klay is alive
That’s a major knee injury. Fuck.
Edit: What the FUCK is going on right now? How the fuck is he walking!?
that is crazy…
was not expecting to see him back at the line…
Leonard game reminds me of an upgraded Paul Pierce.
That sucks. Klay willing himself back. Wow
Klays on some Willis Reed shit
This game has it all
Also Klays ridiculously durable that landing would’ve snapped a lot of player’s acls like a twig
If Klay doesn’t come back and the Raptors win, I’m sorry, there’s a gigantic fucking asterisk next to that championship
I think that TSN just showed a close-up of a player on the Dubs’ bench who’s been verified to not be able to stick that landing
this is fucking insanity
what a game…you know, if you only really tune in when mike is talking, it’s a good broadcast…
I hope Klay is smoking that healing shit in the back right now.
Iggy might be the most underrated player in history.
Or vape it, or whatever the kids do these days. I don’t think anyone actually smokes pot anymore.
What a fucking battle.
I’m a homemade tincture guy, including tonight
He really makes shit happen. Plays so hard and smart. If there’s anyone whose impact is hard to measure on that team, it’s him.
WOW, what a defensive play by Draymond at the rim
For a great passer, Draymond makes some really stupid passes
Klay not coming back tonite. Presents like a sprained MCL to me.
Wow, the Dubs are letting it ALL hang out!
Iggy is very Pippenesque. Probably not quite as good as Scottie, but very close. He’s a terrific player who didn’t find his Jordan until too late in his career for casual fans to realize how good he was.
What a game. Holy crap. Fred Van Vleet is balling too.
I love knowing that Shaun Livingston’s career almost ended in a moment and he is, 12 years later, flushing breakaway dunks in one of the best Finals games in memory
My respect for Golden State is shooting thru the roof. Even if they lose this game, they are playing with serious fortitude. Reminds me of Troy Aikman in the ’94 playoffs. The Cowboys were so stacked I never gave Aikman proper credit, but when he lost to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game I gained respect for him. I was amazed at how he continued to throw lasers even though his face was pounded into the ground over and over that game. GS may lose today, but they are seriously battling.
We got vintage 76ers Iggy tonight
Awesome game. Just great. Epic.
What a slugfest…
Some terrible calls. Very on brand for the nba
OMG turnover. Seriously?
HAHAHAHAHA A TURNOVER!?!?!?!
This Raptor team can choke with the best of them
Danny green WHAT
A shitty, stupid ending to a fantastic game. 100% NBA.
Omfg this ending
How long can 0.0 seconds last?
Robot Kawhi says, hold off on the celebration for a minute, I need to make the free throw. The rules are the rules! BTW, please come to NY, we love technology
Really ref you couldn’t let that go?
The team that aquired Chris Webber on draft night calls a ghost timeout. Crazy
Talk about asterisks all you want, but I’m ecstatic that Kyle Lowry finally has a ring. He deserves it. Same with Marc and Serge.
What an anticlimax
and Jeremy Lin got a ring too!
Pretty fucked up way to beat the Warriors, but hey, they beat the Warriors
Congrats to the Raptors!
I think GS got a taste of Boogie Cousins Karma. 🙂
When your team has never won a chip before, you take one however you can. Heck I wouldn’t be complaining if the Knicks were in the Raptors situation. Either way, congratulations. Credit to the Warriors though. Showed a hell of a lot of toughness.
And Melo doesn’t have one. More karma!
Great game up until the last, very long second. Congrats to the Raptors.
ayo, where’s Uncle Dennis at
I guess it’s all downhill from here for Nick Nurse.
I suppose you give Kawhi the MVP, but Lowry had a monster series.
I’d be pretty shocked if Kawhi leaves Toronto now. Or, maybe not. Like someone mentioned, he can now leave like Lebron left Cleveland the second time.
Nick Nurse’s twin brother Drew Carey is very happy for him.
Kawhi had the more consistent series. Can’t deny Lowryhad some monster games though. Glad he gets the ring.
I hope the Adam Silver biopic happens soon so Tony Hale can play him
Maybe they should give the MVP to Masai…
Is it normal for the losing teams crowd to boo the championship team I can’t seem to recall.
Doris asking some odd questions
Wizards apparently willing to throw $10 million per year at Masai. Could spend your cash on worse things.
Wizards would probably pay him $10 million if all he did was get them out of Walls contract.
If the Wizards land Masai Ujiri for $10M after we paid Phil Jackson $12M I will scream.
We should offer him $15M and trade both of Dallas’ picks to Toronto for him.
I predicted Raptors in 5 but I still feel good about being the only America to pick Toronto to win
Great season of commentary, ladies and gents. Let the games begin!
I had too many scotch offerings tonight so I didn’t see the game. But, it seems like Toronto did what they needed to do. I’m just glad nobody got robbed.
Looks like the offer also includes ownership equity, so it potentially works out to be a bit more than what we paid Phil.
Only 5 Raptors made a field goal tonight. I wonder if that’s a low for a winner
Damn Klay tore his ACL.
The Knicks can make the all time “on the come” parley and sign both KD and Klay to maxes and then give the two Dallas #1’s to whatever team drafts Bol Bol in the draft and take Barrett at 3 with the perfect tank squad for next year!!!
Suddenly the West is reeeeally wide open for next year. Unbelievable tough luck for the Warriors.
Yikes, to think that he was running and jumping on it…
I wonder what Darryl Morey is going to do this off season now that the Warriors are down 2 of their best four players.
Is it time to sell off Curry and Green for a gaggle of high picks and re-build after this travesty or be mediocre next season and pay a boatload of tax hoping two seriously injured players return form a year and a half older???