Knicks Morning News (2019.05.12)

The Lakers approach to selecting a coach is so weird. By insisting on a relatively short contract and insisting on certain assistant coaches, they have already undermined Vogel’s authority. He might do well, but he might also end up in turmoil too.

The Lakers approach to selecting a coach is so weird. By insisting on a relatively short contract and insisting on certain assistant coaches, they have already undermined Vogel’s authority. He might do well, but he might also end up in turmoil too.

Someone noted that Larry Bird once said that he thinks all NBA coaches only have a three-yea period of effectiveness. That seems dumb to me, but perhaps the dumb Lakers are following that plan?

But yes, the whole thing seems like such a terrible idea and I’m actively a fan of Frank Vogel’s coaching. “Here ya go! You won’t be in control of the team because Lebron is always in charge. You only have a three-year contract and you have to have a top assistant coach who was a head coach his whole coaching career and will almost certainly try to undermine you and steal your job from you. Oh, and since you and the assistant coach are both defense-first coaches, you will have to hire a second top assistant coach to do the offense. Good luck!”

It’s also weird that the Laker’s think that Lue, who was a point guard, needed a special assistant coach to coach their point guard. What’s Kidd going to do, teach the proper technique for diving into the stands and spilling beer on the ref when his team needs a break?

That sounds right. the Lakers need a better decision making set up.

Of course this is terrible for Vogel. The Lakers have been exposed as a Mickey Mouse operation and it will take serious restructuring to undo the hubris that’s led them to this point, not to mention the fact that they’ve committed to a late-career Bron who seems to still be under the impression, however founded in history, that he’s a superstar that can carry any team to a deep playoff run. False.

But let’s not forget: they gave Luke Walton 5 years and $25M and now owe him about $10M (give or take due to the pending Kings deal). If I’m Vogel, I’m taking that guaranteed money and running for the hills. Reputation or not, there are only 30 of these jobs and the dropoff in pay to assistant coach is enormous. (And there are far more assistant jobs out there. I bet at least half the teams in the league would hire Vogel in some kind of development role if he wanted it.) From what I can find, the highest paid coaches were Mike Malone at $750k in 2012, Lawrence Frank at $1M from 2013-2019 and then Ty Lue around $1.6M in 2014. Even if it’s up to $2M now, for me? Personally? Like, just my opinion and stuff? I’d take the $5M+ to fail than take $2M elsewhere.

Vogel’s reputation is on the line, but what does he have to lose except for a bad job? If things go well, you’ll be celebrated (unless LeBron pulls a Blatt). If things go poorly, you get fired, blame it on organization mismanagement — the Lakers’ reputation has not been lower than it is now — and go collect a paycheck elsewhere in a better situation.

I know these guys are competitive, but money talks, too.

Yeah, I don’t think it’s a bad deal for Vogel at all, and I’d take it in a heartbeat too. There’s always the off chance that the Lakers luck out into a super team as they’ve done many times in history, and if they don’t, well it’s LeCoach’s fault and you’re going to be collecting checks for 3 years. Even Ty Lue’s reputation has been redeemed in some ways, for all the public ridicule he had to endure.

here’s my draft probability analysis from a lunatic Knick fan’s perspective:
-After the top 2 picks, there is not a single player that projects as a sure-fire star. Barrett, Clarke, Culver, Garland, Bol, Little, etc. all have high floors and low ceilings. Even Reddish is a consistent jumper away from being a very good rotation player or better. So at the end of the day,
We can pretty much eliminate any substantive difference between having the 3,4, or 5 (and probably 6-11) picks, other that the strategic advantage given by a) the strength of a given team’s scouting capability and b) the strategic advantage if a team below you wants to trade up like DAL (smartly) did for Doncic or PHI (stupidly) did for Fultz.

-we can pretty much eliminate Charlotte, Miami or Sacramento (or at #2, Boston) from the conversation…we can, right? Right?

-the Lakers are very unlikely to jump up and very, very unlikely to land the #1 or 2 picks. Slightly less unlikely are the T-wolves. That would be fucked up if they move up, but at least they’re in the West.

-the teams with low-ish odds that I fear will leapfrog us come from the MEM-NO-DAL group. Between them, they have an 18% chance of #1, a 37% chance of getting a top-2 pick and a 57% chance of a top 3 pick. Seems likely that one of them will move up, the question is, how far? Obviously, DAL lucking out is the most drink-till-u-puke-inducing outcome. Fuck Dolan’s Razor!

-I don’t think a #1 or especially the #2 pick changes the Wizard’s fortunes all that much, they are fucked unless they dump Wall’s contract.

-Atlanta getting the #1 would make them a playoff team immediately. If they land #2, do they trade down again? Maybe with the Knicks? Maybe the ping-pong ball gods will favor the team that was expected to tank but didn’t…

-the obviously tanking teams, CHI, PHX, CLE and NYK are all pretty much in the same boat. It is nearly a certainty that one of them will be picking in the top 2, and somewhere between 25-30% that two of these teams pick in the top-2. I don’t think any of them trade down from Zion; Morant is another story.

So essentially, the Knicks paths forward are:
-Land the #1 or #2 pick (25%)
-Land the #3-5 pick and trade up for Morant using either DAL’s or our own #1 picks
-Take a risk on whoever we pick at #3-5
-(stupidly) make a blockbuster trade for AD involving anyone but Zion (so long, Mitch)

I can see Atlanta taking Barrett at #2 but they could just as well trade down for another wing and pick up even more draft assets in the process. If there’s a bidding war for Mapleine Jordan v2 or the useless-to-them Morant, I would sure as hell consider the offers.

The future picks are either rebuilding tools (assuming Young, Huerter and Collins stall out) or they’re trade assets to get a superstar before they have to start doling out maxes to their lottery picks.

So essentially, the Knicks paths forward are:
-Land the #1 or #2 pick (25%)
-Land the #3-5 pick and trade up for Morant using either DAL’s or our own #1 picks
-Take a risk on whoever we pick at #3-5
-(stupidly) make a blockbuster trade for AD involving anyone but Zion (so long, Mitch)

The Knicks have a lot of paths forward in FA and the draft.

Clarke and Garland are good prospects in my book. You don’t need to trade them for Morant. Trading for AD isn’t terrible either depending on who you can fit in free agency.

Then of course free agency has lots of options. Signing Durant or Kawhi is a huge leap forward. Pairing one of those guys with Kemba or Kyrie is borderline championship competitor.

The Knicks are in a good place. The draft has good players. They might blow it all, but that can happen to any team at any point. Basically, they have plenty of options.

Even picking 5th has the bonus of letting us keep Trier while maxing KD and Kyrie, in fact picking 5th and holding may be preferable to picking 3 or 4 for that reason.

Trier is a very interesting piece. He has the chance to become a pretty special offensive player, a Lou Williams type, i.e. perennial sixth man of the year candidate. Shot 39% from 3 (after shooting well from 3 in college) and had an excellent FTr of .431. I think he could help a good team right now, which is why I’d be inclined to keep him.

@19

The ftr is really what makes him stand out for me. aggressive guards who get to the line a lot and can shoot 3s are a valuable piece for good teams, he could end up being a guy like Eric Gordon too, where you can confidently rely on him to carry the offense for some stretches of the game. I just want to see him shoot 3s more often because he’s good at it, but that can come with time.

As pointed out earlier, there are rumors some teams don’t consider Zion the best pick in the draft. If such a team got the number one pick, I’m sure they would want to trade it.

I think I’d be open to trading down with anything besides the #1 pick. Here’s an extremely detailed breakdown of Morant’s game. The reviewer is not nearly as high on him as some of you.

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/08/ja-morant-scouting-report/

Tl;dr is Morant’s defense is atrocious as he gives very little effort. He also has questions about his shot and a very skinny frame. From the article:

Medium / Realistic Outcome: (Ball dominant) starting PG, with below average defense. I’m personally not a fan of his form and don’t think he will ever be able to pull up quickly off the bounce, which severely limits his effectiveness. I am also not a believer in his long term C&S ability unless he really hones in on his form. Defensively, even if he is good on ball despite his size, his size limits the defensive potential of the team due to lack of defensive versatility.

High End: Playmaking starting point guard with C&S ability, with average defense. In this role, he’s shooting less (which I think benefits his game and his team’s offensive potential). He’d be creating more and would theoretically have the ability to C&S. Defense gets a bump here if his lower USG/scoring ends up improving his effort off ball and he continues his playmaking with steals.

Low End: Below average starter (or change of pace bench PG) with poor defense. If the shot does not improve, if his awareness does not improve, and if his shot stays the same, the only way he succeeds is as a change of pace guard. He has too much athleticism and passing ability to just be out of the league.

I don’t trust The Stepien as a draft resource. It’s mostly eye-test divination, and not really very stats oriented. Morant’s “bad” individual defense is partly due to his near top-10 usage percentage in the NCAA (33.3%)–a number that will surely go down in the NBA. And, it’s actually really hard to be an atrocious defender when you average 6 rebounds per 40 from the PG position and 2 steals (see Jokic, Nikola). He may need work on that end but the positive DBPM and solid steals/DRB numbers speak for themselves and put a floor on how bad he can be on defense.

He averaged 34% from 3 on 4 attempts per 40 during his time at Murray State (and he’s a young sophomore), which doesn’t really indicate one way or the other whether he’ll have shooting issues at the next level. The numbers from distance are solidly average. If you look at only his sophomore year, he shot 36.3% on 5.2 attempts per game, which is pretty solid volume. It’s an open-question and not at all clear one way or the other.

Also, I agree wholeheartedly with JK47–defense from the PG position is not very important in today’s game, where everyone but Patrick Beverly can’t weave through multiple screens while chasing around Steph Curry. Ja Morant’s possibly poor defense is not an issue if he’s averaging near a triple double from the PG position, which looks like a real possibility.

He’s the clear #2 guy and I wouldn’t trade down unless the package was very good.

Are there any names attached to the “Zion is not #1” rumors? I want to know so I can tell you where there will be a GM vacancy come April.

I’d be fine getting Morant. This team with a real PG will be watchable for the first time in years. I have a hard time seeing him flail like some of the latest busts have. Might be a bad defender, but I really don’t care. Mitch will be our Gobert, covering for perimeter mistakes and rotation lapses. We desperately want to see motion. Not going to happen until we divest from the Mudiay/Ntilikina train. DSJ is a career sixth man and Trier’s ceiling is Oladipo, not a PG by any means.

I’m not so sure I agree that defense doesn’t matter as much from the PG position. I think it’s hard to find someone with such a diverse set of talents as ball handling, play making, basketball IQ, efficient shot creation AND defense. So teams sacrifice defense to get the more essential elements of the position. However, it’s kind of like in baseball. There are certain positions is baseball where being a power hitter is not expected or required. However, if you are a great player at that position and also come with power, you are adding tremendous value. If you can get a great playmaking and scoring PG that’s also an elite defender causing havoc every night for the other teams’s PG, you are in a heavenly position.

As pointed out earlier, there are rumors some teams don’t consider Zion the best pick in the draft. If such a team got the number one pick, I’m sure they would want to trade it.

I don’t think so. With all the over the top hype, you’ll get crucified if you trade the #1 pick unless Anthony Davis or someone like that comes back.

Even if you honestly believe that Morant or Barrett is more likely to ultimately become the better pro, I don’t think you can either trade the pick or not pick Zion unless your position is so ridiculously secure and powerful within that organization that even if it turns out badly you’ll still have a job. There may be one or two guys like that in NBA.

When I was in my 20s and data processing was just starting to explode, I would often see technology that was clearly superior to IBM’s. Then when it came time to buy, the boss would always buy IBM anyway. The old saying was ” No one ever got fired for buying IBM”.

Yeah, having a Point Guard who’s a good defender is more of a luxury than a necessity, I would say, and there are different aspects to defense that are specially hard to quantify about PGs. Westbrook himself has been a part of really really good defensive teams and he’s a pretty good defender when he’s engaged, but it’s hard to be engaged getting screened all the time and having a 30% usage on offense. So much about guarding PGs on the other team is about team defense too, big men hedging on screens, defending the paint, good rotations etc. there’s just not much you can do alone when guarding guys like Harden, Curry, Lillard etc.

I’m fine with Morant not being a good defender if the rest of his game translates well to the league, and I think it will.

I’d watch this series go best of 13.

Also, the Nuggets can’t buy a bucket right now. This is insane. 4-17 in the final quarter of Game 7!?

This is crazy!

I’m not a big McCollum fan but this is a legendary performance

Absolutely classic semifinal series

Now time to watch Kanter try to defend GSW on starter’s minutes . That said, Dame sinking a game winning 3 in Oakland in Curry or KD’s face is the stuff basketball dreams are made of.

It’s easy to forget just how young Jokic and Murray are. Experience counts for something.

We generally don’t like Evan Turner here at KB but he’s a formidable player in the halfcourt (i.e. 4th quarter playoff basketball) and was a big factor in this win.

The Nuggets kinda sorta choked, but the Blazers kept themselves in all game long and deserved to win. It’s a shame they’ll get eviscerated by the Warriors, but I hope we see some Lillard or McCollum magic for one or two games at least. I expected Portland to be better than most people expected but I had the Nuggets winning this series, so I just hope it’s a decent WCF.

TMZ reported that the men who attacked Porzingis were upset that he left the New York Knicks, who traded him to the Mavericks on Jan. 31 due in part to the All-Star being disgruntled with the franchise.

Ha!

Either the Blazers or the Nuggets were probably getting done by the Warriors, but I had the Blazers as the more likely candidate to give them a handful. I think the win today is even more impressive with Dame putting in a stinker as well.

Is there something wrong with the game clock? I just turned it on and the Sixers appear to have scored 13 points in 12 minutes of game time. Are they playing octets instead of quarters?

Kawhi is eating Embiid alive on defense

I don’t see an issue on offense, but one or the other would have to assume either a shooting guard role or power forward role on defense. Maybe that might not work out. Food for thought though.

I think the question is (if we were in a position to land KD and Leonard) whether Fiz could make that work. Leonard is pretty versatile on D, just depends on whether Fiz can put together a scheme.

KP, the drama continues….that trade is looking better and better.

Finally the Knicks may be making the right moves instead of always making the wrong ones.

This Philly/Toronto game has been kind of nip and tuck in this 4th quarter.

I can’t believe we’re watching Tyrion try to execute Plan Talk Cersei Out Of It for the third time.

Weirdest buzzer beater of all time, but awesome nonetheless

fucking gravity

WOW

What a crazy enjoyable game. Feels bad for Philly as they had a really good shot to win it, but that was magical. The ball hit the rim 4 times!!!!

That was the craziest shot! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a shot bounce like that and go in.

I can’t believe we’re watching Tyrion try to execute Plan Talk Cersei Out Of It for the third time.

I can’t believe you were watching that either. I’m sorry for your loss.

Just got done watching GoT, how was the game?

Kawhi’s TS% for the playoffs is .678. Given the context it’s not as good as what 33 year old Lebron “I led the NBA in minutes played” James did while hauling that bum ass Cavs team to the finals last year but it’s still one of the best playoff performances I’ve ever seen.

watching the end of the philly/raptor game now…

still hoping for a bucks/blazers finals…giannis versus kawhi is going to be crazy…dame and cj versus the splash brothers should be epic – especially with teams playing physical defense and the starters playing almost 40 minutes a game…role players coming up big each game…

saw something cool today…me, ma and sis headed out to laguna beach to grab a bite…was at this nice restaurant overlooking the water…table next to us was this couple with a small child maybe a few months old…the baby was a real champ, and, ma was in love…guy at the table get’s up, come’s back in a few minutes, kneels next to me and pulls out the ring…it was some seriously perfect timing, ideal setting thing…wife to be was beaming, baby was still a champ…it was a small eating area, and, ma and sis are true new yorkers (kind of loud, and, in other folks’ business :), sister was nearly crying, the whole place was cheering after a minute…

dude crushed it…

Kawhi instead of KD? Or both?