Knicks Morning News (2019.04.24)

The Clippers beating the Warriors would make it even more likely that KD leaves, but could also increase the odds he goes to the Clippers. So… go, Dubs?

FWIW, to all the KD is falling off crowd, Durant has been the only consistently excellent scorer for the Warriors. I think he took the regular season off. Not the case for Draymond and Klay.

Maybe if Durant says I am 100% not coming to NY, the Knicks can take Gallo into their space for a 1st round pick and open the door for the Clippers. He’ll be on a 1 year deal next year. I’m sure he’d be fine with coming back to NY. He’s popular here and it would add a good veteran player to at least move the team forward from its 17 win abyss. Then we’d have the space back the following year, an extra pick, and Gallo might be willing to come back cheaply the following year just to settle down in NY and eat right in Little Italy. Of course, the Nets could offer the Clippers and Durant that deal also and I don’t think Gallo would mind Brooklyn. 🙂

I want Durant no questions asked. If we don’t jump on players willing to come to NY when they’re FA were just hoping that someone wants to come later.

We have 3 years before Mitch signs a big contract. After that we start worrying about capping out without enough talent. Grab the talent when you can.

Mitchell Robinson only missed 16 games this year?

IMO, Mitchell Robinson is a terrific player that has a chance to become a two way superstar, but if your only weapons on offense are the lob dunk and offensive rebound put back, very good teams will limit you and reduce you to more of a role playing rebounder and defender. That still makes you very very valuable to any team, but you are not a high level two way player that a team can build around and count on to score on high volume every night. It’s the latter category that’s harder to get.

If we whiff on KD and Kyrie (one without the other is pretty pointless barring some other major moves) the correct path forward is pretty easy to chart. Pretty much do the exact same thing we did last offseason; don’t add marginal wins without sweetener and stack the roster with as many intriguing young players as possible.

Here’s the flip side.

The only reason the Knicks might not get a superstar this year is because they suck and have no veterans that would immediately be ready to compete in the playoffs at a high level with guys like Durant. The same would probably be true the following year and maybe even the year after that until the young players start breaking out and other players want to join them.

The only reason a 2nd tier team like the Brooklyn Nets is even in the conversation for a star free agent is because they put together a team that’s a mix of young players with upside and battle hardened veterans that now have playoff experience together. So you could easily imagine adding a star, continuing their process, and the team being a serious contender the following year after next.

You can go either way. Both have advantages and disadvantages depending on your time horizon, city, and position.

KD sure didn’t look to be in decline phase last night, ehhhh….and Mr. Kyrie has been pretty spectacular , too!

As to the previous thread statement about GSW being the best “team” of all time, I think the Bulls would have something to say about that. I’d pay real money to watch Pippen chase Durant all over the floor and Rodman/Grant play Draymond Green. It would also be humorous to watch GS try to defend MJ without hand checking…..

The only reason the Knicks might not get a superstar this year is because they suck and have no veterans that would immediately be ready to compete in the playoffs at a high level with guys like Durant. The same would probably be true the following year and maybe even the year after that until the young players start breaking out and other players want to join them.

Sure, it could take 2-3 seasons of making high picks and getting assets with cap space before we’re an appealing free agency destination without even taking into account our location. I fail to see any problem with that whatsoever. I’ve waited quite literally my entire life for the Knicks to put together a legitimate contender with the quasi-exception of 2012-2013. What the hell is three more seasons if I see a smart process taking place? Trying to rush said process has lead us to being arguably the single worst team of the past 20 years. Could trying to build the correct way for once really be any worse?

I still don’t understand why a 31 year old Durant would want to come to a 17 win team.

Consider the vantage point from which you are analyzing his motives.

You’re looking at it through a prism of your own bias based on what players from the last decade of free agent movement have done. They’ve all made moves to get rings.

Durant has rings and it hasn’t made him happy. What makes you think he should be driven by the desire to add more rings? He can come here, break scoring records, win individual awards, be worshipped if he gets his team into the conference finals. And he can do all that in the same city where his VC firm is headquartered, enabling him to spend more of his time on another part of his life that he loves.

I admit that he has to be convinced that we won’t be a disaster like the Lakers are. That’s why I think Brooklyn remains a dark horse in the race. He can get all of the above and not have the risk involved with the Knicks.

If we whiff on KD and Kyrie (one without the other is pretty pointless barring some other major moves)

As someone who spends way too much time playing with spreadsheets and roster combos, I assure KD without Kyrie is not pointless. You could get 2-3 good vets for the price of one Kyrie. But I already attempted to make this an NFL thread for a day, so I won’t try to make it another NBA 2k19 thread, too.

Kevin Durant is having an incredible performance in this series, and I think at the back of his mind he wants a new team where he is the unquestioned superstar so he can do it every night. He has a .706 ts% as of now on 32% usage, which is about as insane as it sounds.

I think he’ll leave the Warriors, and considering he himself has said his priority is money, New York and Los Angeles should be the best options in the sense of branding opportunities and everything else. It’s clear to me that he thinks he’s the best player alive and he himself is enough to make any team contend, whether that’s a fact or not, so I don’t think he would worry too much about going to a bad team. If his decision is based in anyway on a real chance of contending every year, then the discussions are kinda pointless because he’s just staying with the Warriors.

Just that I think just tanking alone isn’t the way to go.

The thing about tanking is that if you’re able to do it four years in a row, the players you picked in years 1 and 2 likely haven’t grown into the franchise players you’d hope to get with a high pick. You could call it the Cavs Paradox — they should have become the best team in the league when they got 3 #1 overalls in four years, but it turned out that they just had no idea what good basketball players looked like, hence why they were “able” to “tank” during those years.

As you mentioned, the Sixers were smart because they hoarded picks and exploited injury fears to “delay” a competitive team until it was time to put the pedal to the metal. So it wasn’t that they drafted guys who couldn’t contribute when they were on the floor — they got the benefits of being bad without their cornerstones underperforming. (They just didn’t perform at all, for a time.)

If you’re failing to identify good players, it doesn’t matter whether you pick #1 or #30. If you can identify good players, having a top-5 pick in 3 consecutive seasons should be the easiest path to a long-term, three-superstar basketball roster. But of course, those teams tend to be the ones the worst at knowing what a good player looks like.

If you’re failing to identify good players, it doesn’t matter whether you pick #1 or #30. If you can identify good players, having a top-5 pick in 3 consecutive seasons should be the easiest path to a long-term, three-superstar basketball roster. But of course, those teams tend to be the ones the worst at knowing what a good player looks like.

This is all true, and it’s also important to note that even smart teams can find themselves with high-lottery duds for unpredictable reasons. The key in this scenario is to be able to identify these guys as sunk costs. If they have some trade value (e.g. Porzingis), great, trade them for whatever you can get. If not, you gotta have the stones to let them walk if that’s what it comes to.

As long as you don’t overpay your lottery disappointments, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll wind up with a good team eventually.

This is all true, and it’s also important to note that even smart teams can find themselves with high-lottery duds for unpredictable reasons. The key in this scenario is to be able to identify these guys as sunk costs. If they have some trade value (e.g. Porzingis), great, trade them for whatever you can get. If not, you gotta have the stones to let them walk if that’s what it comes to.

As long as you don’t overpay your lottery disappointments, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll wind up with a good team eventually.

The key thing for tear down rebuilds, I think, is just eliminating marginal wins from veterans making a lot of money. When you start rebuilding around Kevin Durant, you really need to trade Ray Allen, ya know?

Durant is done in Golden State, and with him goes their championship window. It’s become abundantly clear that he is the reason they’re still in the hunt. I suspect they’re going to get their asses paddled by the Bucks if they can get by Houston.

Kyrie’s max AAV starts at $32.4M. Here is the list of upcoming free agents. To which 2-3 players do you think it would be reasonable and realistic to divide that sum? I’m open to having my mind changed but as of now I just don’t see anything but clear max/near-max candidates and guys not worth it at all.

Two veterans I like a lot *if* we’re in win-now mode with Kevin Durant are Danny Green and Paul Millsap. I find it incredibly difficult to project what over 30 veterans can expect to get in this current environment, but I think it’s quite reasonable to assume we can get the two of them for under a combined AAV of $32mm. (Sometimes I think we can get both of them and Jordan for that much money, but that’s when I’m being wildly optimistic.)

EDIT: the Nuggets have a team option on Millsap but I think they’ll conclude there are better ways to spend $30mm

Two veterans I like a lot *if* we’re in win-now mode with Kevin Durant are Danny Green and Paul Millsap. I find it incredibly difficult to project what over 30 veterans can expect to get in this current environment, but I think it’s quite reasonable to assume we can get the two of them for under a combined AAV of $32mm. (Sometimes I think we can get both of them and Jordan for that much money, but that’s when I’m being wildly optimistic.)

Millsap ain’t hitting the market. He has a team option, and while his AAV is high as hell, it’s just one year and he’s a key cog for a contender that can’t really open up any additional flexibility by letting him go. They’re picking it up.

Green is a UFA, but Toronto will have his Bird Rights and will presumably want to keep him for all the same reasons Denver will want to keep Millsap. Even if Kawhi leaves, they still stand to be pretty competitive. I suppose it’s possible they let him walk under those circumstances, but that’s a whole lot of assumptions.

Overall, if legitimate contention is what we seek the clear best option is to sign two worthy max players and fill out the rest of the roster as best we can.

Not sure it says anything about the odds of him staying with the Warriors.

On its own, I agree. But in the context of a lot of circumstantial evidence this is just the latest indication that KD is on his way out there. There’s just too much smoke around that situation for me to believe he’s selling main property in the area before the offseason begins with the intention of stating a Warrior.

Again, I think no matter how you go about building a team you need to buy free agents at some point. There are several factors that go into getting top free agents, but most important are (1) cap space and (2) they want to come.

We currently have (1) and allegedly have (2). Sure we can wait, but there’s no guarantee (1) and (2) coincide in the future. In that case we’ve spent more time, but get no closer to winning.

For those that want to wait, why do you think FA will come in the future? The track record of players coming to NY has not been great despite all the claims of NY as an ideal destination.

On the other hand, we’ve never had a player at KD’s level before. All the other rushing to win was with bad players. The problem isn’t the strategy, it’s the implementation.

Malibu isn’t exactly close to Oakland. I don’t think it means much. Plus, he already made $1.5 mill off it. Likely a financial decision.

Not sure it means anything. Maybe he wants to buy a bigger house in Brentwood….

For those that want to wait, why do you think FA will come in the future? The track record of players coming to NY has not been great despite all the claims of NY as an ideal destination.

On the other hand, we’ve never had a player at KD’s level before. All the other rushing to win was with bad players. The problem isn’t the strategy, it’s the implementation.

I don’t think he’s coming here. If he wants to you have to sign him, because it’s a big opportunity. But we don’t have nearly the necessary supporting cast in place yet so we’d need to start handing out picks and good young players to acquire them. And then year one we miss the playoffs or get swept in the first round due to a lack of synergy/cohesion/supporting players/injuries/ect, all the shit that happens the first year to teams built like this. Year two we burn more picks and youth for vets and do better, year three Durant leaves to go elsewhere and the Knicks are once more back at the bottom with absolutely nothing to show for it other than a second round playoff appearance. I consider this the most likely scenario in the unlikely situation that Durant, who hates the media more than any other player, actually wants to sign here, home of the NBA’s most antagonistic media.

If the Nuggets decline Millsap’s option and renounce all of their free agents…they’re still about $30M over the cap. That’s why they’re picking it up–spending $30M on an overpaid but productive player like Millsap is better than spending it on no one.

1. According to Spotrac, they’d have over $20mm in cap space if they decline his option.

2. Here’s where we actually take Dolan for granted: most team owners are cheap and don’t want to pay $30mm for a player who might be worth half that. The Kroenke family owns the Nuggest and they are notorious cheapskates (ask any Arsenal supporter how many times they’ve done something that made terrible sense from a competitive standpoint but netted them extra money).

This isn’t like Golden State and Klay Thompson. $30 million is too much money for Paul Millsap. I think he’ll hit the market.

grew up close by patchogue/sayville – i miss the water sooooo much…

My man from the south shore! I was a Seaford kid. First job was working at Jones Beach in 1993. I got fired for letting all my friends sneak into a Spin Doctors concert. I was genuinely surprised when they fired me, too, because all the older kids talked about doing it so much as I was growing up that I thought it was perk of the job. “I gotta plead ignorance on this one. If anyone had told me this sort of thing was frowned upon here…”

It turned out well, though. My next job was a stock clerk at the local Waldbaum’s, where I developed a system of switching Budweiser cans into cases of Pepsi that had special markers on them so my friends knew which ones to buy. Thus I became the main alcohol supplier of south shore long island high school parties from 1994-95.

Also, the article just says KD is listing his Malibu home. He may just be testing the waters for a sale. He’s not actually sold it.

oh heck yeah hubert – massapequa…my grandmom lived out in oceanside (a few of blocks from the nathans there)…

I got to hang out a few times at some of the bars over on jones beach as i got older (smith point was our local beach growing up)…i’ll never forget i was 18 and hanging out at this one bar with my cousin (he was in his late 20’s), we were standing on a pier blazing and out of no where he told me: “don’t have kids – they’re really expensive”…

i don’t know, he didn’t have any until his late 30’s, but, at the time – it seemed to make a lot of sense…man, even god kids are expensive…

i was in the sachem school district…even though massapequa was in nassau county, pretty sure we played sports with them…

wow, there was a waldbaums over there by nathans…it’s been years since i thought about that…lived with my grandparents for a while when i was a kid…i love google street view, brings back memories…

i’ve told people before that long island was a really beautiful place to grow up (especially if you were on the north or south shores)…a lot of people though just think of the city or upstate when they think of new york…

oh yeah, you’re such a corrupting influence – i knew there was a reason i liked you 🙂

1. According to Spotrac, they’d have over $20mm in cap space if they decline his option.

2. Here’s where we actually take Dolan for granted: most team owners are cheap and don’t want to pay $30mm for a player who might be worth half that. The Kroenke family owns the Nuggest and they are notorious cheapskates (ask any Arsenal supporter how many times they’ve done something that made terrible sense from a competitive standpoint but netted them extra money).

The initial figure I cited was wrong because I forgot they have a bunch of trade exceptions they’ll renounce, but it’s not $20M. If they renounce all of their free agents and TPEs, they can get to $14.5M. There’s just no chance they let Millsap walk to open up that amount, because they’d run into the exact same problem we’re having! Who exactly is worth right around that amount, and that’s also better than Millsap?

As has been touched on here before, Sportrac is extremely unreliable. Remember Emmanuel Mudiay cap hold trutherism? That was because of them.

There really aren’t many (any?) good options to give a Courtney Lee-esque deal. It’s a dying type of contract that only makes sense if you’ve somehow secured a legitimate max player at below their max (think Curry, and then Iguodala).

WTF are the Giants doing? Haskins is going to be a gunslinger. Lock was also there.

Amazing coincidence, I think my band opened for them. We opened for Blues Traveler and the Spin Doctors a lot in those days. I loved listening to Popper, and those dudes were really nice; we usually hung out with the bassist and driver before shows and played pool and such.

My first big touring gig was with Pete Yorn, I played in his band for many years in the 00’s. We did a month opening for Blues Traveler and they were great to us, just class acts all the way around. The best thing about that tour was that they brought their own chef on the road with them, which is rare for a band of that size. They had stoves and and pots and pans in road cases, and every day it was this incredible homecooked food, it was mostly soul food kind of stuff. That’s still the only time I’ve ever played at Red Rocks, opening for them.

Josh Allen fell into their laps and they blew it.

That QB 1) sucks, and 2) would have been there at 17. Hell he might have been there in the 2nd round.

Raiders didn’t have a Plan C when Williams and Bosa were taken off the board. I dunno if trading down was an option for them but Ferrell was a major reach. I guess they thought a SAM like Allen wasn’t valuable enough of a position pick at #4.

Redskins just made a terrific pick and the Giants are going to regret it. Haskins will spend his career making them pay for passing up on him.

Giants are a fucking disaster. I swear to god Gettleman is the NFL version of Phil Jackson.

Someone explain the apoplexy caused by this draft pick. I don’t follow the NFL but I love hot takes and drama.

Giants GM passed up a fan favorite for someone no one ever heard of at their premium draft spot. And the really crazy thing is that they could’ve this guy later in the first round with their 17th pick. And then they go pick a glorified NT with that 17th pick in a league where teams are passing more and more pass rushing quickness is being prized at the interior defensive line.

Wow yeah, I’m not a big nfl guy, but Gettleman might be the worst gm I’ve seen in any sport since… idk… I think Phil was better tbh.

@64

The Giants basically just drafted the NFL version of Cam Reddish. He’s got bad numbers for a college QB: 59% completion, 8200 yards, 6.4 yards/attempt, 52 TDs, and 29 picks over three years with virtually no improvement over that time and in a college division that isn’t exactly full of football powerhouses.

His tape is also bad. I tend to think that arm strength is generally overrated but he can’t throw deep at all. He plays almost exclusively out of the RPO and locks on to his 1st read. This is also a guy who no one was talking about during the NCAA season but climbed draft boards after the season was over which is also a major red flag.

Jesus, GMs are all about the defensive front 7 in this draft. No WRs or RBs picked yet.

@72

I feel bad for Giants fans right now. I thought Haskins was a no brainer for the Giants if he was there. I could’ve even seen them passing Haskins up at #6, taking someone freakish like Oliver there and then reaching for Lock at at #17. That would’ve made sense. Oliver/Lock >>>>> Jones/Lawrence. I just dunno what the thought process there is.

At least Gettelman will be fired. If we’re lucky, it will happen in time for someone else to make our picks tomorrow.

Other silver lining:

We’re almost guaranteed to be the favorite for the #1 pick next year, so Jones is just holding the seat warm for Tui

@75

Honestly, I didn’t like Haskins either but he was certainly a better prospect than Daniel Jones. Considering who was available, the obvious pick there should have been Josh Allen. What’s even more frustrating is that we just drafted Dexter Lawrence, a 2-down run stopping DT at 17. Of course, this is after we traded the best run-stopping DT in the NFL this past season for a 5th round pick partially so that our other two DTs could play their natural position. This is rank fucking incompetence.

yeah, not such a great night for the g-men…fuck, we may have been better off with coughlin and reese…

@79

Yeah, its pretty bad. If Gettleman wasn’t enamored with Haskins I don’t see why he wouldn’t just pick DE from a deep draft in the position at #6 and roll the dice with whoever’s left at QB there at #17. They went through all of that trouble to trade OBJ for that 17th pick and ended up with a NT in his stead.

I’ve never seen someone who is so obviously too soft for the NFL.

This is why uninformed fans are morons. This guy is such a pussy he played 20 DAYS AFTER HAVING A PLATE INSERTED TO A BROKEN CLAVICLE!!! It is really hard to play football with a broken clavicle that needed surgery. Gutless bastard……

WTF man…. do a little research before spouting opinions like the 9 yr old who cried when the Knick drafted KP.

The Spurs are looking to take this series to 7 when they have no business beating the Nuggets with the roster they’re starting. Greg Popovich is such a great basketball coach. I think he’s certainly in the top 3 all time, arguably in the top 2 depending upon how you feel about Phil’s legacy of frontrunning from one star-laiden franchise to the next.

This is why uninformed fans are morons. This guy is such a pussy he played 20 DAYS AFTER HAVING A PLATE INSERTED TO A BROKEN CLAVICLE!!! It is really hard to play football with a broken clavicle that needed surgery. Gutless bastard……

WTF man…. do a little research before spouting opinions like the 9 yr old who cried when the Knick drafted KP

I do appreciate the brilliant analogy to the crying Knicks fan, and the kid may be tougher than he looks. But you seem to ascribing to toughness credit that belongs to a medical staff. He didn’t play through pain, they figured a way to protect him from pain and further injury:

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article219304195.html

Bob, there’s no defending this pick. Absolutely none. If you liked the kid so much, trade down. The kid didn’t have a first round grade. If we didn’t take him at 6, he’d still be on the board this morning like Drew Lock is and we’d be able to take him tonight.

And please don’t get me started on using the 17th pick on a two-down NT.