(Monday, April 22, 2019 5:05:11 PM)
The expectations could not be higher for the Knicks as they enter free agency this summer, having bottomed out during the 2018-19 season. But what if things don’t work out as hoped?
(Monday, April 22, 2019 11:26:52 AM)
Warriors star Kevin Durant can be a free agent after the season, and the idea that he could team up with fellow free agent Kyrie Irving on the Knicks this summer has picked up steam since the Kristaps Porzingis trade cleared two max slots for New York. Here are the latest rumors…
(Tuesday, April 23, 2019 12:37:35 AM)
Tsai, a part owner of the team, posted support for General Manager Sean Marks, who was suspended a game without pay and fined $25,000 for entering the referees’ locker room after Saturday’s loss.
(Monday, April 22, 2019 10:21:07 PM)
The league recently unveiled a new logo and color scheme, and made clear that they reflected heightened ambitions. But growth in its TV audience has so far has been modest.
(Monday, April 22, 2019 3:54:20 PM)
Eager to atone for last season’s playoff failure, Portland has come together and found its rhythm and taken a 3-1 lead against Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City.
258 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2019.04.23)”
Please ban Ntilakilla for repeatedly posting inflammatory comments and generally being a troll.
Virtually every kid with exceptional talent is going to come out after 1 year. The problem is that when kids are 18, figuring out what they are going to be at 25 is a lot tougher than when they have 4 years of college, you have a much larger sample of stats, and they are closer to their physical maturity.
That’s why draft position has less value now than it used to have. That’s why teams like the Nets, Spurs, Clippers, and other smart organizations still have a good chance to accumulate promising talent lower in the lottery or even later all while also adding to their team with smart trades and FA signings.
Smart teams can get good a lot faster (or stay good without an all out tank). They don’t have to bottom out and stay in the lottery year after year hoping “this” is the year the ping pong balls cooperate and they make the right guess when it’s their turn to select. They don’t have to do that year after year until they finally accumulate the talent they need and then wait for them to actually get good. The latter will work too. It just takes forever. The former won’t if you have pinhead management, but neither will anything else.
I don’t agree. If we had a blog where everyone agreed, it would be boring. I don’t agree with Ntilakilla on a lot of stuff, but unless he is being personally insulting, I am ok with his comments. Other people voice support for Sanders, who I don’t like, should we ban them too?
It’s not that I want a lot of politics on this blog, but when Knicks news is slow, other topics tend to pop up. If politics is here occasionally and opinions differ, that is OK with me. It’s better than a site where people just preach to the choir.
I would prefer a “soft” no politics rule for multiple reasons.
1. We should attempt to keep our discussions about basketball and the Knicks as friendly as possible. Politics gets more personal and tends to bring out negative emotions. It’s not healthy for any of us, it’s a distraction from what we are here for, and it carries over into basketball.
2. Given that I’m a 60 year old libertarian and this board is dominated by younger liberals, I’m inevitably going to read things I disagree with strongly and feel tempted to respond. I don’t even want the temptation. At various times in my life I’ve been both liberal and conservative. I’ve been arguing these things for decades and became what I am because of life experiences – some of which taught me I was wrong when I was younger. If I live another 20 years I’ll probably learn more and change again. I just don’t want to argue about it or be forced to read about it. Decades of doing that is just too much.
We are all good people with different life experiences, priorities, and ideas about how to fix things.
Let’s stay friendly.
From previous thread (my comment is “awaiting moderation” for some reason) I think the account of the Luke Walton incident is obviously disturbing but it describes events that would be very difficult to prove unless there are text messages or the like somewhere.
I also disagree, Early Bird. The ban hammer should be reserved for greater offenses than having an annoying opinion.
And don’t forget, when he started politicizing this blog a few months ago, I spoke up immediately and y’all shot me down because at that particular time you agreed with what he was saying. You can’t support someone’s right to talk politics when you agree with him, and then try to ban him when you don’t.
I love the non basketball topics. Esp. given that 90% of the posts is Knicks and bball related.
Also, Ntilakilla isn’t a troll so much as he’s that kid from college who comes home for Thanksgiving break and annoys everyone at the table because he just learned about the prison industrial complex. You can’t stand him when he’s on his soap box, but he’s still part of the family.
It’s going to be a long summer. Off topic stuff is fine. We don’t want the board to get as boring as GOT do we? But yeah, it’s rare that a political digression ends well. Possible but rare.
I welcome all jabs at GOT’s sharp decline in writing quality
Yeah, 100%. They are hacking it up. That was some soap opera level stuff. Not terrible but could be so much more….
To state the obvious, if I was a conservative, I wouldn’t be posting my political opinions on a site presumably inhabited by many people in NYC or w/ NYC roots unless I was looking for disagreement.
The same way I wouldn’t start pushing my own opinions about AOC onto fans of the Crimson Tide.
Ugh, it’s terrible. And every character suddenly became stupid once Benioff and Weiss didn’t have the books to follow. It’s the Game of Dumb Ideas now.
Part of me hopes that George RR Martin is mad at these guys for lapping him and is feeding them bad ideas to make them look stupid, and when he writes the last chapter none of that stuff will be in it.
EDIT: Having said all that, the next episode will probably be epic.
It’s annoying because it has become something personal between a couple of posters and a discussion that literally moves nowhere very fast.
I’m all up for politics talk, but whenever this specific discussion starts I simply move past all the posts without reading them because I already know what they are, and they frankly don’t interest me.
I’m against bans unless the person is being very disrespectful or offensive, which I don’t think it’s the case. If we didn’t ban Ruruland at the time for being a broken record and being annoying as hell, there’s no reason to ban him.
It’s going to be a long offseason with nothing to talk about related to the Knicks for a long while, anyway.
It’s better than yesterday’s musical circle-jerk that had me gagging.
Ntilakilla is fine, honestly I should refrain from snarking back at him when he posts something annoying but his basketball takes are solid, he’s a Mets fan and in real life he’s probably a decent dude. I can’t help myself sometimes, so my bad if I’m making the situation worse.
Now Henry George, there’s a real asshole.
I think the problem is that the politics and intrigue stuff in GoT was the interesting one, but magic was always a conventional story. In the first seasons they had a nice mixture of both, but now they can’t. Magic is the one driving the story, and if they open new intrigue plots, they would not be able to close them. So you just got the magic stuff, which is going to be epic and have incredible visual effects, but is not going to be that interesting.
However, I still hope they surprise me.
Stopped watching GoT after a few episodes of season 2 due to personal issues with the actual production lol. Shit almost ruined my life! I take delicious pleasure in the show’s drop off, especially when I get forced to watch certain milestone episodes only to see how bad it’s fallen off. QQ: better final season? GoT or Lost?
Re: politics, it’s whatever. I’m politically homeless. What I am realizing now is that the sooner I dead political conversations at family events, the better I’m off. Has anyone changed their political mind through civil discourse?
I kinda love Henry George. Every time he posts is like when they would cut from the Muppets to Statler and Waldorf in the balcony.
wtf…are you on drugs, or, off your medicine?
I know I’ve been kicking in here for a couple of years, but, I still have trouble remembering who’s who sometimes…
c’mon man, tell us a your sad story…
I hate the post-books GoT as well, but there are a couple of factors outside of Benioff and Weiss’s control. For one, the political gamesmanship of mute night king are not going to be as interesting as the conventional westerosi stuff from the earlier seasons. Secondly, Dany has never been a particularly compelling character. Most importantly, Kit Harrington, Emilia Clarke, and whoever plays Bran are the worst actors in the cast (though i’m kind of loving Bran’s weirdo weirwood-paste-tripping affect this year)
If we don’t have enough to talk about when it comes to the Knicks, let me remind everyone that the Kentucky Derby is just a few weeks away and it looks like a wide open race. 🙂
i used to worry that grrm would kick off before finishing the books…now, I’m not so sure I’ll even be around by the time a dream of spring finally comes out…
my expectation for the series changed dramatically once they ran out of source material…this season it’s simply a game of guessing who’ll be left at the end of episode 6….
KBPR, would you mind giving us a bit more color on your backstory with the production? The list of Knickerbloggeristas with more interesting lives than me just seems to keep growing
The episode “The Door” is one of the best moments in TV history, and almost everything else in the last two seasons has been tripe. The zombie island dragon ex machina thing was so bad I turned to my wife and asked her if we could just cancel HBO.
It’s not super interesting but my ex-girlfriend (now wife) worked as a VFX producer on GoT. They were such a demanding client, and VFX is an industry very easily taken advantage of, that she was working 20+ hours a day, 7 days a week. So yeah, the season 2 premiere i attended was not worth the devastation to our relationship, even though I’m pretty sure Amanda Peat (wife of GoT’s co-creator) was trying to eye fuck me.
Not in favor of banning Ntilikilla at all, but yeah that shit is annoying and I say that as someone who agrees with him on most things. Just stop, dude. It’s not like you’re the only person here who follows politics closely and enjoys talking about them. Everyone else has more or less figured out the appropriate times and places. There’s not even a good utilitarian argument–you could convince every single poster here to be a full on Sanders activist and it wouldn’t budge any state’s primary/caucus or the GE so much as .001%.
I think your thinking on this issue has been heavily influenced by the picks the Knicks have made in the past few years. It was difficult to tell what kind of players Ntilikina and Knox would be because they weren’t good at much of anything prior to coming to the NBA. It’s wasn’t all that difficult to tell what kind of players Luka/Trae/JJJ/Ayton/Simmons/KAT would be, because they mostly tore up their pre-NBA competition.
To be sure, there is still plenty of projection/speculation required no matter where you’re drafting. You can limit a lot of uncertainty by actually committing to a rebuild instead of signing Courtney Lee and Tim Hardaway Jr. and picking 9th all the time, though.
Fair points, glidepath. My issue has more to do with how stupid all the characters have become. I think even Ned Stark would have spoken up about that plan to go north of the wall to bring back a wight to show Cersei.
That and how everyone got shielded with so much plot armor that all the stakes went away.
I’m not influenced by our own selections beyond knowing it gets harder once you get past the occasional sure fire pick like Zion.
I’m just aware that even when you can identify a sure fire pick (and it’s often a lot easier after the fact), you are probably only going to get 1 shot at a player like that. You are going to have to win the lottery in that specific year. Otherwise, whoever you do draft in the top 5 and whatever you do add the following year will tend to slowly move you up the ranks (and down the lottery scale).
The only way around that is to have injuries to your recent draft picks and/or to avoid adding any other good young players so you stay at the bottom for longer. One of those is not something to root for and the other doesn’t make much sense.
I’m not arguing it won’t work. It definitely works. I’m arguing it may not be the best way because it takes too long. Other teams are turning it around quickly with a combination of drafts picks, trades, free agent signings, renting out cap space etc… But obviously, you have to have competent people at the helm.
oh my god, that happens all the time to me (not with amanda specifically, I’m not really sure who she is)…I mean like just in general…
it’s really challenging at times being such a compelling object of lust for others…
they may clumsily try to keep their eyes private, but, i know, i just know – they’re watching me…
Warning, GoT spoiler alert:
GoT jumped the shark for me when Jon Snow was killed. Yeah, I heard about what happened after that from my wife, but that didn’t lure me back. Apparently the show is more popular than ever, despite the fact that many critics apparently feel that the show has become extremely contrived. I’m rooting for Ned Stark to return Obi Wan Kenobi style in the final episode to help save the day! 🙂
We recently reupped for HBO so that she can watch the final season and I can watch the Deadwood movie.
my money is on that horn of joramun playing a big part still in WoW…
the dragon cold-fire was pretty cool though, I’m seriously hoping grrm ain’t taking many tips, regarding plot, from the show…
I do love the whole bran daytripping all over the place (and time)…bran the everybody…
has anyone read that damphair preview pov featuring euron…one of my favorite sneak peak chapters from winds of winter…
considering the direction GoT went with the euron character, I’m guessing that cool ass armor he wears ain’t making an appearance anytime soon…
for me, the dorne and euron adaptations were probably some of the most painful moments the show has had…
Doesnt that happen in the books too?
I’m still very into GOT because I think there’s enough good actors in the show to make it worth watching still, but the storyline unfortunately inevitably forced a focus on the absolute worst ones, while going away from fantastic characters and actors like Cersei for example. At least Jaime arrived in Winterfell to save us a bit from the absolute garbage that is watching Kit Harrington and Emilia Clarke interact for 10 minutes, which made the second episode a lot more watchable.
Ntilikilla’s divergences are fine. That kind of stuff is easily recognizable and skippable if you are sick of it and it’s not offensive or disrespectful (or at least not outside the established formal and informal boundaries we all mostly abide by). This is a public forum mostly made up of intelligent folks and it stays on topic most of the time. The occasional veering off into important issues, culture, and personal stories is more welcome than not.
Early Bird has been beating this drum for awhile now. First off, posting things you disagree with is not the same as posting inflammatory content, please stop acting like Ntilikilla is way beyond the pale. Second, they aren’t a troll. They’re not looking for fights, they’re not trying to piss people off just for shits and giggles. They’ve just got a leaky filter when it comes to things they care about. I mean, I’ve read all the books and am sick to hell of the TV show and really wish it would just go away because I know GRRM doesn’t have any pages and is never going to finish because he’s backed himself into an impossible corner but do I complain about GOT getting splattered all over my Knicks blog? I do not.
Very well said
Would you settle for him returning Zombie style in the 4th to last episode and ruining the day? If so, you may want to tune in next week!
Because, you know, if you’re fighting an enemy whose power is raising the dead, “the crypts are the safest place.”
High Maintenance is an amazing show.
Seems like you’re way overvaluing the impact a single rookie can have on a team’s win total. Outside of extremely rare cases (I’m talking Tim Duncan/Shaq/Luka level rare), the situation you describe doesn’t necessarily have to come to pass. The Suns got the #1 overall pick, drafted a productive player in Ayton, and won 2 fewer games than the previous year. The Knicks got a rookie stud in Mitch, and had the worst record in the league. OKC drafted three dudes who went on to win MVPs consecutively.
Between rookie adjustment periods, shedding marginal wins (this is the big one), and tanking shenanigans there’s a lot that mitigates this issue.
Of course there’s always the possibility you draft a player so good he stops your tanking cycle on his own, which, great! That’s the goal! Once you’ve drafted players like that it makes sense to start thinking about how you can add wins. Until you have at least two players of that caliber though, any wins you add will likely be marginal.
It ends on a cliffhanger and George doesn’t have either the inclination or the ability to finish what he started
The kids are four years younger in the books which gets both squicky and inconvenient. There are some other timing issues
Cut myself off. …timing issues plot wise with some things inconveniently coming to a head while others are ramping up. Also I think he’s gotten bored with it.
The true beauty of the GOT books was that you got to peek into a fantasy world. The only constant was the world. No individual person, no kingdom, no story arch was above annihilation. Every fight scene, every battle, every political conversation, it all held tension because anybody could go at any second. The second the show started to care about it’s cast, poof, the show was done.
things a nercomancer might say:
“Walk like you have life in you”.
“Omg it’s not gonna kill you….for long…”
“I built my career from the ground up!”
“throw me a freakin’ bone here.”
“Hear the one about the leper that was no good at playing poker? – He kept throwing his hands in.”
“Die on your own time.”
“Mess with a lich die like a bitch.”
“The bodies keep piling up and my work is never done.”
“What’s the difference between a Necromancer and a Necrophilliac? – One raises the dead, another is raised by the dead.”
“People are dying to work for me.”
“Say, you didn’t happen to hide all the women and children in the crypt, did you?”
I agree. I hope for surprises too, in the last seven or eight episodes they have to reunite the characters and close off plot lines and this constrains the writers. They can’t introduce much new stuff. But perhaps they could have done better anyway. I haven’t seen the episode from this Sunday, but the first one threw in a bunch of Dragon flying and CGI for not much plot purpose. I suspect we will have more of that.
I digress back to hoops: So who are the Knicks taking at #5 after the inevitable fall?
Hunter looked better than Culver in the final few games that I saw, but small sample size. That might be too high for Clarke. None of the other prospects seem very exciting, but I could be wrong.
Portland’s guards are shredding OKC. It’s been fun to watch Lillard and McCollum. Surprisingly Kanter seems to be fitting in and adding positive contributions. Looking forward to Rockets v Trail Blazers .
FWIW I agree with the “don’t ban Ntilakilla” crowd. Differing views should be allowed unless the personal insults get out of hand ( which does seem to happen from time to time here anyway)
For those of you looking for a different fantasy book series that is also uncompleted and this also going into tv and (film) production I strongly recommend the Kingkiller Chronicles by Patrick Rothfuss. The first book is called The Name of the Wind. It’s not grimdark and it skews a little YA and gets a little purple in moments, but overall is absolutely fantastic. Better writing than almost any fantasy series and has a wonderful emphasis on music, which is what attracted Lin Manuel Miranda to it as a producer for the adaptations. Best thing done in the genre since GOT.
And for something completely different if I am posting book recommendations for no reason, The Bernie Gunther Novels by the recently and sadly departed Philip Kerr are a fantastic guilty pleasure summer read….
I’m making my way for the second time through the sopranos with my gf (her first time through) and we just got to season 6B when Thrones started up. Needless to say the decline in the dialogue quality of Thrones becomes all the more apparent when it’s juxtaposed side by side with Tony Soprano.
That said I think they can still salvage the show. Last season was awful, but they have to hit some generic fantasy beats in the leadup to the ending of it all, and I’m sure it’s not particularly easy to write compelling television when there are so many genre strictures on how fantasy climaxes work. There are a couple possible endings that could make the groaners worth the price of admission though. We’ll see if B&W have the stones to actually follow through on the show’s themes, I guess. I’m not optimistic, but at this point we’ve got four more episodes to find out.
Strongly agree, although I don’t think it’s fair to put that entirely on the show when I think it’s the basically the same issue that effectively ensnared GRRM and ensured the books are unlikely to ever be completed. He spun his wheels through two largely ineffective books and then basically quit writing because he couldn’t figure out how to move Dany from one side of the world to the other which is approximately the least interesting question in the entire hyper detailed world he built. Talk about caring too much for your characters.
edit: +1 for Kingkiller Chronicles although you’d think we’d all have learned our lessons by now about unfinished series.
and, then came a feast for crows…i know there was some editorial challenges with a feast for crows and a dance with dragons, but, the way they structured those two books was highly disappointing…
initially when i read through those two books i was mostly just skimming through for plot points though, i didn’t really slow enough to enjoy them as much as i should have…i enjoyed both a great deal more when i listened to them on audio books…
if you were going to read any of the preview chapters i’d highly recommend this one…absolutely beautifully named: the forsaken
if, you’re a fan of some of the extraordinary weapons and armor detailed in the books…it’s pretty cool stuff…
Tormund is a great example of this. Should have died when he was under the water up north or on the wall. But they wanted to keep him around for the jokes, which aren’t even that funny.
Nothing is certain. It just takes a lot of luck and a very long time to get the 2-3 stars you need out of the draft and then start building around them. It works. I just see no point in excluding free agency and trading as a way of getting one or putting yourself in a position to get one right from the start.
The Nets have mostly done smart things in terms of using their cap space and finding good value in the draft, but they also have guys like DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, and Joe Harris (all veterans) making major contributions that put the team on the map for star free agents. If they were insisting that everyone be under 25 they wouldn’t be in the playoffs now and they definitely wouldn’t be in the game for major free agents. In their case, they didn’t really have much of a choice because they were barren of picks (like the Knicks were for a couple of years recently). But if they did have all their picks I’m pretty sure they still would have used every option available to get better and put themselves in a position to try to trade for, draft, or attract stars. The team would just look different and be better.
I can’t get past two things (but I’m still watching of course):
1) the blatant appeal to fan service and the absurd dumbing down of everything made GoT such a cool show in the first 4 seasons and
2) nowadays big shows cast their leads so wrong (Harington and Clarke here, Ricky Whittle on the terrible blunder that is American Gods’ second season). It’s like there’s Steve Mills drafting their main actors.
8×02 was still a good episode. There were a few scenes worth the ticket (Ser Davos and the scarred child moved me a bit).
Can we all just tell Strat he’s right so he stops making the same argument every single day for years on end?
I may check it out since we’re subbing again.
I haven’t read the GoT books, so cannot compare/contrast. I was fine with Ned being offed in the first season, okay (though frustrated a bit) with his eldest son’s demise (forgive me for forgetting character names), but after the death of the guy who fought for Tyrion, and then Jon Snow, I was done. I agree the show focused a bit too much on all the negative characters.
Still, I’ll probably watch the last 2 or so to see who all dies. I’d imagine very few will survive and they’ll try to make the final survivor a surprise. Ned Stark!?
this is sort of interesting: https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/253482/Suns-Could-Have-Interest-In-Trading-Up-For-Ja-Morant-If-They-Fall-Out-Of-Top-2
Basically the Suns love Morant and would trade up for him.
If the Knicks get #2 and the Suns get something below #2, that would be a nice way to get an extra lottery pick next year in a much stronger draft – basically redoing the Atlanta/Dallas trade.
(that is if we don’t love Morant also).
I like Morant but if we’re going to sign Kyrie AND we have a bunch PG-types on the roster already, it seems a good use of resources to trade Morant and get two lottery picks in return.
Casting young people is like drafting out of HS or after a year of college-sometimes you get Sophie Turner, sometimes you get whoever the kid who plays Bran is. (I also think the directors have no idea what to do with Bran so maybe it’s not all his fault)
If we’re 5th I don’t know-it doesn’t seem like there’s any consensus as to who is going after Zion. Seems pretty likely that Morant is going to be gone by then, but after that I don’t know. I expect Clarke would be there and if nothing else a Clarke/Mitchell front court would be fun to watch on defense. With our point guards and our coaching staff I’m not sure that would work on offense.
The wait for this isn’t so bad. The books are more of a journey than a destination kind of thing. It doesn’t feel as incomplete, if that makes sense.
One of the great things about the books was that Martin would make you hate somebody like Jamie, then spend the next book making him human, then flip back to his enemies and make you question the original ‘heroes’. His skill at characterization really is amazing, and he used it to great effect to be a real bastard to the readers.
Maybe if there’s someone they really like at three? Morant appears to be the obvious second BPA and it gets pretty slim from there. Do they have their second round pick? I might do a pick swap for a future first and their second this year.
He spun his wheels through two largely ineffective books and then basically quit writing because he couldn’t figure out how to move Dany from one side of the world to the other which is approximately the least interesting question in the entire hyper detailed world he built.
This is the bane of modern fiction. In telling almost any long-form story, there’s going to be a lot of what I call “dumb monkey plotting.” You have to move your character/characters from Point A to Point B both emotionally and physically and there’s no hip, clever, edgy, or sexy way of doing it. You just have to trudge through and do it because it’s the steps you take along the journey, even the boring ones, that lend power to the ending.
So much writing today, especially in movies, is from people who only want/know how to write the “good bits,” which is why so many films lose steam so badly in the back half.
You might be ascribing to the writers that which properly lies with the producers.
this was robb stark (the young wolf, and, king of the north)…i liked his character a lot also…what was really cool in the books (which they accentuated greatly) was the impact/influence of those 6 direwolves that were discovered in the early moments of the book/show…
it seems each child may have had the ability to bond (they called it warging) with their wolf, and, actually see and act through animals…some demonstrated the ability more so than others…
one of the things which made robb so successful in battle was his ability to use his wolf, grey wind, to both fight and scout…
at this point in the show there are only two wolves left (jon’s ghost, and arya’s nymeria)…in the books bran and rickon still have their wolves though…
Who kills Cersei?
maggy the frog laid it all out for cersei when she was still young:
Cersei asks if she’ll marry the prince to whom she was promised. “You’ll never wed the prince,” Maggy says. “You’ll wed the king.”
Will she be queen? “Oh, yes,” Maggy says. “You’ll be queen, for a time. Then comes another, younger, more beautiful, to cast you down and take all you hold dear.”
Will she and the king have children? “No, the king will have 16 children, and you will have three,” Maggy says. “Gold will be their crowns and gold their shrouds.”
“And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.” Valonqar means “little brother” in High Valyrian.
i’m pretty sure cersei was the first of the twins born…
my money is on jaime…
Yeah, but there are many theories about who the little brother is. Maggie didn’t say your little brother.
The Hound is a little brother. I could see him teaming up with Arya to get the last name off her list, and that’s how we end up with the much anticipated Cleganebowl.
There’s also the idea that the valonqar isn’t gender specific, opening up the door for Arya. Or Arya wearing the mask of Jamie. Many possibilities.
The one thing I really like that they did this year was set up the prospect of Bronn v Jamie, something that was foreshadowed when they sparred back in king’s landing. That’s the old school GRRM shit that we haven’t got much of since they passed the books.
While I agree with you I do think there’s something to be said for how much harder this gets with the entire internet looking over your shoulder and ascribing significance and meaning to absolutely everything. Apparently at some point GRRM was planning for there to be a jump forward of a few years after book 3, which makes some sense given how young a lot of the main players are at that point, and how much Dany’s story in particular proved tricky to immediately untangle. It also would have let him go back to gradually revealing secrets/hidden truths of the recent past as he did so effectively in the first few books. Apparently the reasons he didn’t end up doing it was that he was worried people would feel unsatisfied with him just dropping events at that point – things like the Dornish reactions to Oberyn’s death, which sounds insane (it’s maybe, I don’t know, the 1000th most important plot point in the story and there really isn’t a single other Dornish character than even hardcore fans care about), but I’m sure there really is a section of online/con fandom who would have been outraged about the “plotholes” created.
very good hubert 🙂
that thought about the crypt stuff was excellent…
this conversation is absolutely meant for some fine wine and good food…
I appreciate the defense.
I think this is exactly why dialogue shouldn’t be stifled here. Diversity of opinion is a good thing.
And now that the Knicks basketball season is over and we’re waiting for FA and the draft.
LOL. Funny analogy!
And, in my defense, they never come from me. I am usually the one insulted not the one insulting others.
I have heard that theory about the crypt. It does get a lot of attention in the last episode so maybe there is something to it but I kind of doubt it. The last redoubt is a fairly standard feature going back to Helm’s Deep for fantasy fiction. I also think if the Night King could resurrect anyone who ever died he’d probably have exercised that option.
Someone send a smoke signal when y’all are done predicting the plot of the next episode. I’m trying to go into this as dumb as I can be.
Off topic, but is anybody else enjoying the Lakers becoming the new Knicks? Magic Johnson’s resignation (after doing a terrible job in the first place), the Luke Walton allegations, LeBron’s missing the playoffs for the first time since he was a rookie, Kobe Bryant’s looming presence, and the idea that they’re going to lure free agents because they’re the Lakers and they have a 35 year old LeBron James? The only thing they’re missing is a franchise crippling trade for Bradley Beal and a max contract for Kemba Walker.
It wasn’t me who initially brought up Bernie Sanders. The discussion veered that way because my support for his campaign always animates critiques of my positions here when I raise an opinion on controversial topics like mass extinction, something which isn’t a political opinion but a proven scientific fact according to geologists, biologists and climatologists.
I don’t want to belabor the post anymore than I have since I was expecting to move onto a new day full of topics. I know that seems contradictory after two posts of responses, but if I don’t defend my position, who will?
But, as for me, I am done discussing the issue if you all are because I want to jump in on the GOT talk.
When it comes to GOT predictions i have a track record worse than the Knocks FO.
I’m always down for someone else’s franchise cratering (minus the walton allegation)…it’s entertaining…
what you know about asoif raz…
People were talking about their small children and you started talking about mass extinction. That’s kind of rude to be honest. I’m guessing you’re probably fairly young, that is a rather immature thing to do. I take the topic as seriously as you do but there’s a time and place, and that wasn’t it.
To weigh in on the day’s events, I vote to ban Ntilakilla. He makes his comments in bad faith. They don’t follow any existing thread. Complete non-sequiturs designed to get a rise out of people. He is not offering an interesting analysis rooted in experience or analytics.
If he did it during the summer doldrums, then maybe ok. But he distracts from actual basketball conversation.
I’ve come to the conclusion Benioff and Weiss are overrated hacks. They were very effective adapting the story to a cable series format but are basically useless without George R.R. Martin’s writing to work off now that the show has surpassed the books. It might be that there is some grand plan they haven’t revealed but the problem seems to be tying up all of the loose ends in a satisfactory way that does justice to the many different character arcs and subplots driving the Song of Ice and Fire story. I don’t doubt that there is some major payoff that they are working towards, but the problem is that the show runners are sacrificing the character driven story telling which made the series so compelling at the beginning in favor of plot driven story telling which needs to move characters to certain situations in order to rush the narrative from point A to point Z. Perfect example can be seen in how both Littlefinger, Tyrion Lannister, and Varys — three of the cleverest and most compellingly cynical characters in all of television — were made into sentimental fools for sake of rushing the show along at the point in their character arcs which surpassed the third SOAIF book storyline.
Why does GOT have to wrap up at all? Isn’t the show much more interesting as a critique for why some geopolitical regions are entrenched in warfare for decades/centuries?
You dropped into the world at a random point in time, and so you leave it at a random point in time.
i like that…it’s actually a pretty fair assessment of life itself…
by any chance – anyone reading Fire and Blood?
i’m still on the jaehaerys the conciliator section…last interesting thing i had read was about jaehaerys’ niece (princess aerea) taking off with balerion…and, then coming back – kah-razee stuff…
I just love that this fucker has now read the Mueller Report and still peddles bullshit about it
My issue with GoT’s writing is not even how uninteresting some of the major characters are, because that’s almost bound to happen in such a huge and diverse world, the characters that actually move the story forward tend to be the blandest / most stereotypical ones.
My issue is that they seem to be writing the dialogues backwards, and that’s just terrible writing. Every single Daenerys dialogue, specially the ones with Sansa being the most egregious ones, are written with the punch lines / smart quips as the main focus, and then the rest of the dialogue and scene are merely a lead up to the tense moment. The same happens in a lot of Jon’s dialogue and to a lesser extent with Tyrion and even Cersei too, the difference is that Peter Dinklage and Lena Headey are good enough actors that their overall performance trumps the bad dialogue decisions.
It annoys me to death simply because it was never like this in the first 4 or 5 seasons, when the dialogue was sharp without having to resort to this endless game of a character trying to one up the other with “memorable” lines.
The magic fantasy mumbo jumbo was expected and somewhat necessary to the progress of the show in my opinion, after spending 5 great seasons with everything ahead of the curtain and the huge magical shit as the threat looming over, they have to also develop and show us what’s behind. That I can understand, but I really don’t need Daenerys being smug in 10 straight dialogues with every single person, specially since Clarke clearly can’t handle the character, and the character is boring and uninteresting in the first place.
It’s a shame because we should be inspired by Daenerys, but she just ends up being a stupid entitled young girl who can’t relate with anyone and fails at every opportunity trying to look badass.
I think this is basically the reason why so many people (myself included) are still fans of the books and would continue to recommend them even having accepted several years ago now that they are unlikely to ever be completed. What’s effective about them isn’t that reliant on the main plot ever being completed.
And I think you can make a very compelling argument that the show would have been more effective had Benioff and Weiss, at the point when they passed the books, simply kept the show going on the trajectory it was on until whatever point they didn’t feel like making it anymore. Instead they tried to bring it towards GRRM’s predetermined “endgame” within a relatively small number of episodes, and like the books got stuck with an overly high ratio of “things that need to happen” to “reasonable amount of space in which for those things to happen”.
I enjoyed this piece which relates to this discussion.
I thought this was the point. The whole premise behind the books is as a FU to traditional epic fantasy tropes (knights who say ‘fuck’). Daenerys is the magic animal princess a la Pern and similar and is meant to fail at both dragons and at ruling. It’s why so much of her story has a strong deux ex machina feel – randomly acquiring the unsullied and the mercenary captain – because that’s a central part of that trope, shit just falls out of the sky into the lap of the magic animal princess.
i know roy dotrice isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but, if you need to spend some time travelling or on a treadmill or outside walking – i would highly recommend investing time in to the song of ice and fire audio books…
the hbo show reveals about 30% of the story…grrm created an amazingly rich world…
The question of parental challenges was raised and I brought up the issue of mass extinction and climate change. Here’s my issue. By extension of your logic, I could say you must be old for not thinking one is very relevant to the other. Would that be fair to you or would it just be a way of patronizingly dismissing your perspective? I think you know the answer.
Also, since I was just accused by someone of making bad faith arguments without “metrics” or “experience” to back them up, let me note that, according to the most recent research, future life expectancy is expected to be negatively impacted by man-made climate change. I don’t see how parents aren’t chilled by the prospect that their children could live shorter lives than they do as they age. As for experience, BTW. I have family in PR, a state which is being devastated by intensified tropical storms rising Atlantic Ocean temperatures wrought, raising their children in that environment. And I worried about it all through Hurricane Maria.
I get that you, as someone in a position of privilege, want to bracket the issue from every discussion here. Others can’t. And I refuse to remit from mentioning it when the subject of parenting comes up because it makes privileged people like you uncomfortable about the world we live in. The alternative perspective needs to be heard, if no other reason that people like you do bracket it from yours lives by putting up walls between yourselves and the rest of the world. If am a bad faith troll who should be banned for genuinely feeling this way, then so be it. But I will speak my piece rather than be cowed into silence.
Well, not everybody is blessed with A+ social skills I guess.
Also LOL at the idea that playing in a mid-tier indie rock band affords you to living in a “position of privilege.” Yeah, I’m sitting here typing this on a diamond-encrusted cell phone in the opulent mansion I bought myself with my Haunted Graffiti money.
Yes, and to me this is related to the characterization problem in GOT since the show moved on beyond the third book. Characters who were once very interesting in how they navigated this medieval fantasy world are now going through the motions with a lot of manufactured drama and quips in place of actual conflict that moves the story forward. It seems like a lot of bad fan fiction to have X character chat with character Y. But, in fairness, this isn’t only a show problem. George is also showing a problem connecting the many dangling threads he created together since the 3rd book as well.
I am convinced the Maesters know something about the Targaryean lineage and secretly poisoned the dragons into extinction on Westeros. If you’ve read the World of Ice and Fire books you probably know about the theories concerning the Empire of the Dawn. The connection is very real. I always had a feeling that Oldtown, where the Citadel is situated, is connected to whatever ancient race created the black oily stone you see there and in other places like the Seastone Chair and Asshai. I’ve always felt the Maesters are working for the Deep Ones, who seem to be mortal enemies of R’hlor.
call me crazy, but, i think he’s writing both winds of winter and a dream of spring together…i know they won’t be published together, but, i think he’s “finishing” the whole story at once…
to date there’s been 11 chapters/100 pages or so of pre-release work from winds of winter (most i believe if not all i believe are chapters held out from the two previous books)…a dance with dragons was 1,000 pages long…
so, basically, he started with 10% of winds of winter already completed, and, who knows how many other completed chapters he already had…
Let’s face it, dude. You’re living a better life than most based on some of the things I’ve read you write beforehand. Not because of your job, but because you live a life where you don’t have to think about if your loved ones won’t be able to survive the latest shitty hurricane season around this coming autumn if they don’t have a place to go. And a lot of people in the world are dealing with this stuff, including the migrants in the latest caravan from Central America making their way up to the U.S. who had to leave their farms because of increasing drought around the Northern Triangle. It was their plight that especially animated my thinking when Hubert brought up parenting in today’s world, and I can only imagine what they are dealing with.
Anyways, I don’t begrudge your privilege of being able to think the two aren’t interrelated. I just want to be able to express my POV about things without having to be depicted as a troll because it makes people like you feel uncomfortable. That’s unfair and shows a complete misunderstanding of where I am coming from. We just disagree about a few things and are coming from things in different perspectives.
My mom, dad, brother, two nieces and nephew all live in Fort Lauderdale and they’re at risk every hurricane season. So, I dunno, fuck off maybe? Can it with the virtue signaling already, I am embarrassed for you.
You mean well but you’re really not as smart as you think you are.
look at you with the goodies raz 🙂
i have the world of ice & fire book, but, mainly just skimmed through it to try to read all the parts grrm had written himself (like the dance of the dragons stuff)…i need to do a little digging on the empire of the dawn stuff…gracias senor…
It’s not the same thing, JK47. Florida is actually where most Puerto Ricans are migrating to in order to avoid what that Maria and a piss poor federal emergency response did and is still doing to their island. The fact you think experiencing a hurricane in one remotely compares to the other only confirms my suspicion about your privilege to be honest.
But I propose we both stop now because you’re getting offended and I don’t want to turn it into a personal pissing match here when the point is supposed to be about respecting each other’s differences. All I am saying here is to consider where I am coming from when I make these uncomfortable points you don’t like. So, when you dismissively say things like Bernie supporters are worse than Trump supporters after the Christchurch shooting when I posted about the Mueller Report or that I must be “immature” for raising a point climate in a conversation about parenting children today, it’s offensive to me because it shows a complete lack of touch with concerns that people like me have to the point that I am baffled for having to defend myself from accusations of trolling for saying these things.
I’ll happily stop and honestly I’m just ignoring you from now on because you are extremely tedious.
I find Ntilakilla typically grating but I will say as someone right around the age where most of my friends/peers are starting to have kids, climate change is always the very first thing that gets brought up in our discussions. My wife and I are considering taking the plunge and it’s certainly the very heart of our greatest fears and concerns. Interjecting it into what’s otherwise a lighthearted discussion isn’t exactly tactful but this is an internet messageboard – tactful conversation isn’t exactly one of the hallmarks and as it’s clearly a related and important issue it seems reasonable to raise to me.
Dude, give it very, very thorough reading. All of the clues and foreshadowing for the future two books are really fleshed out in the mythology, geography and history covered there. Look, I can go in real detail about the masterpiece I think George is writing BUT I am afraid that we’ll get into some very spoilery details here that will piss even more people off and I am already disliked here enough. LOL.
Needless to say, George is going to go crazy in the last two books beyond what the show seems willing to do. Think what a pulp fiction baby born of H.P. Lovecraft, Robert E. Howard, Robert A. Heinlein, J.R.R. Tolkien, Robert Jordan and the Ragnarok epic would look like and you’ll have an idea what the finished product will resemble. I really so can’t wait for George to finish this fucking thing, but I also recognize you can’t rush genius. No one will care if the books take forever to finish so long as they are well-finished. All I can say is that there are still some major surprises in store for the readers.
Fair enough. Though I think disengagement is the worst thing you can do with someone you disagree with.
To clarify, I have no issue with discussing politics. However, Ntilakilla does not discuss politics, he makes pithy comments like Bernie is a genius, everyone else is a confederacy of dunces.
On the other hand, when Ruru was annoying he was talking about the Knicks.
Ntila is like the grade school kid who starts trouble, gets yelled at, then looks to make trouble again once the teacher looks away again. Statements like the one above and the global warming statement are clearly trolling for a response. Once he catches someone, he starts making innocent posts until the discussion dies down. After, he goes straight back to typing crap.
Yes, isolate and cherrypick one snark comment on a message board full of snarkier comments as indicative of one person’s entire posting history. That’s a real good faith representation and not bad faith strawmanning at all. According to this logic, I can isolate and cherrypick your multiple comments calling for my outright banning from here and say ” EarlyBird does not discuss politics, he makes accusatorys comments like Ban Ntilakilla.” See how unfair that is?
I’ve made my point. I’ll drop it.
i don’t know raz…i think you kind of just like fucking with folks, just poking on them for a reaction – and, it’s that reaction which you seek more than anything…personally i don’t get it – but, i understand it’s a thing for some…i don’t really think you’re looking for an honest debate…you seem to like to win and be right…hard to get in to an honest debate with a competitive individual – especially when they are already convinced they’re right…
i don’t really think any of us are just one thing though…
i missed out on some of the more antagonistic folks from a few years ago (did get to catch some of project knicks final act, that dude had zero polish though = low rent/project troll)…
i never really could understand why reub enjoyed fucking with people so much…i thought he was an interesting and okay person – i liked hearing about the cruise ship shit…but, for some reason he had a strong desire to stay in conflict with others…i don’t really know why some people pursue those type of interactions, or, what the real “payoff” is…
just different strokes i guess…i hope you’re able to hang around for a while raz…
On another subject (and changing the subject is definitely allowed on this site) has anyone been watching Jeopardy? This champion is surreal, he destroys everyone in his path and literally knows everything about everything. He just broke the $1 million mark with his 14th straight win, tonight he won $115K which is enormous by Jeopardy standards.
I honestly don’t know if he will ever lose unless he just gets bored.
This would be the point in thanksgiving where I roll my eyes and sneak out to the back to get high with uncle geo.
I think this is true. It is hard to debate with people are more concerned with being right. But I think that can be said about a lot of people here, not just me. I personally, know its a trap I fall into. But I also think I am intellectually honest to be open to other viewpoints. It’s the other people who want to ban me that don’t. I will leave it there.
i appreciate your response raz…personally i just think you have a lot of insight and knowledge to offer…there’s a lot of folks dropping by, other than the folks whom regularly kick in…i just don’t think you really need to poke so hard in order to get some type of feedback…your thoughts, words, beliefs, values should be able to stand on their own, and you should have confidence in that…
i get the whole debate thing, and, how that’s important for a lot of folks here to exercise their mind and spirit…and, to a certain extent – we’re all using one another for something…i just don’t know how honest it is if you use others to get some kind of bump that comes along with riling folks up, simply for the sake of – getting a bump from riling folks up…
it’s just not a very challenging thing to do…it’s pretty easy actually…
i don’t know, i guess it’s kind of like going over to someone’s house (in this case mike and brian’s pad :), and, fucking with their friends…eventually they’ll just get sick of that shit…
I just have a weakness, which is that I have a hard time letting dumb shit go unchallenged. I realize that’s boring for everybody else, so I’m gonna turn over a new leaf here.
Good luck! You’re gonna need it. Better men than us have succumbed to the siren call of Someone Being Wrong On The Internet™.
Jeopardy dude’s strategy is so simple and good. Execution (i.e. answering the questions correctly) is critically important, but the game has a very simple exploitation strategy and he’s hailed as a genius for employing it. He obviously is a very smart person, who should probably run the Knicks, but it’s not that complicated to try to grab an early cushion through selecting high-value tiles and then let the whole game hinge on the ability to turn DDs into insurmountable leads (or the opponents’ inability to do the same, as their available betting would consequently be lower). DDs are overpowered as hell.
His attitude about selective aggression has some crossover to NBA roster building.
i don’t know jk – there are a bunch of new yorkers (and those sympathetic to our plight) here…i don’t think it’ll ever be all hugs and kisses…nor should it probably…i know i wouldn’t want that…
it’s just this stuff is like shooting fish in a barrel for some folks…
heck, i like “discussing” things in a very loud voice at times 🙂
Jeopardy guy also seems to know that, if you’re confident in yourself, it’s better to click right away and then figure out the answer. His opponents take that extra split second to see if they know the answer before clicking.
Amazing that the Nets are losing by 27 despite having a guy as tough as Jared Dudley
I’m a Jeopardy fan. Every night before I go to bed I read through a couple of Jeopardy games on J-Archive, trying to hone my skills. A few years ago I took the online test and passed, and went and did the audition. I sucked at the audition. I sucked at the written test and most surprisingly to me, I froze up when they did the interview part. I thought I would ace that part. I did pretty good with the buzzer though. I have good reflexes. I took the online test again a few weeks ago and did not do well, so it’s back to the drawing board.
I probably got lucky the one time I was able to pass the online test, I just had a good hot streak that day. I would probably be cannon fodder if I ever made it on the show, but I’m still gonna try. Although now it seems like there’s not much of a point racing against Secretariat.
One of the really important keys to Jeopardy is fast reading comprehension, you have to be able to quickly suss out what exactly the “answer” is telling you. You have to speak Jeopardy language. There’s a certain syntax to the questions and many of them practically give you the “question” with clues embedded in the “answer.”
You guys think Masai Ujiri will entertain the idea of trading Pascal Siakim for Anthony Davis this summer? We know the Lakers have no shot at a deal and keeping AD from Boston not only robs them of a chance to improve, but it makes Kyrie’s departure more likely AND makes it harder for Kawhi Leonard to leave.
Like Durant, I don’t think Leonard is deciding on strictly which team is the best team, quality-wise. So I don’t know that Davis would even change Kawhi’s mind on leaving. Even without Kawhi, the Raptors are a pretty good team. Depending on how they spend their money, they could still be interesting (not title contenders, but interesting).
Damian Lillard is absolutely roasting the Thunder and the rest of his team is giving him nothing on either side of the ball.
Yeah, I don’t think they’ll mess too much with the parts around Leonard, at this point all they can do is hope they go far and he somehow decides to stay.
It was a little poetic to see the Sixers dispatch the Nets so easily today, on the back of the two stars they got as a reward from killing the beautiful traditional rules of roster construction, but I guess Philly fans won’t care too much. It’s going to be two killer series on the east, probably the two best we’ve seen in a very long while.
@116 I think it would be pretty tough to walk away from teaming up with Anthony Davis and Masai Ujiri in an NBA where the Warriors will likely lose Kevin Durant. I wonder if NOLA would even value Siakim over Tatum.
I just need the Celtics to lose. That’s what I most need at this point.
Bucks in 7 for me. Brad Stevens and Mike Budenholzer are on the same tier of coaching to me, but Giannis is definitively the best player in the series. Kyrie will steal an early game but in the end Giannis and the Bucks will be too much for Boston’s young and overrated wings to stop.
I think the Bucks win in 6, the Celtics will have a couple of good games behind Kyrie, but the Bucks are just better.
Damian Lillard is my favorite player to watch this playoffs, damn, this is a performance for the ages.
Bucks in 5 over Boston.
Raptors in 7 over Philly
Bucks in 6 over Raptors
It’s kind of hilarious how confident Kanter looked out there while he was sucking.
What a ridiculous game-winning shot. Like, seriously RIDICULOUS.
I seriously think he was thinking, “A three would give me 50. I’m shooting the three no matter what. Might as well try it from 37 feet for the win.”
Lillard became a legend in a great playoff duel .
LOL Westbrook is now going to have to shake off the onus of playoff underachievement…again.
How THE HELL does he even TAKE that shot, let alone make it to win a series!!!!!!!!
That was absolutely beautiful, my goodness. What a beast of a player, what a game. Legendary.
They can’t blame Melo this year. It’s really unbelievable that Lillard is as good as he is and is so unheralded in comparison to every other star point guard in the NBA.
I feel bad for the reporter who’s going to have to interview Westbrook after this game.
Paul George, 14-20 from the field.
Jerami Grant, 7-8 from the field.
Steven Adams, 5-8 from the field.
Terrance Ferguson, 1-1 from the field.
Russell Westbrook, 11-31 from the field.
They lost by 3 points.
Really, this was a total carry job, until McCollum kinda woke up in the 4th it was literally him alone carrying the team. Ends with 50 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals with 10 3 pointers, 33 total shots. I’m still in shock at the sheer confidence level in taking that shot.
Westbrook is going to have to take the brunt of the blame here. George played like garbage in a couple of games, but he has the injury and had good games like tonight. Westbrook’s terrible shooting is simply getting to a point where his overall fantastic production is not really compensating for it anymore. He either changes his game or he’ll be in a lot more first round exits until he retires.
KD was smart to exit that ship.
Westbrook is 30 and is the prototypical player that doesn’t age well. Those age 31-34 contract years at $38M, $41M, $43M and $46M don’t look so hot right now. He has like a 4/170 deal remaining.
I would really be looking to trade him to some dumb team that is thirsty for a “star.” Let’s hope that dumb team is not us.
Westbrook’s inability to shoot? He was out there bricking lay ups and letting his match up score 50 points in a win-or-go-home situation for the team he is leading. It’s more than just Westbrook’s jumper that hurts the team. Westbrook is officially in decline phase.
The mere fact that he took 30+ shots on a night where George and Grant seemingly couldn’t miss is the worst part. He’s just wired this way, and at this point in his career he’s not changing. I expected the Thunder to lose but I didn’t expect it to be this bad, and it’s only going to get worse as he continues to decline physically and the team continues to be capped out and paying the tax.
Kinda like the close out game last year where he took 43 shots lol
KD knew, what PG knows now. What will/can he do?
And Lillards J is a thing of beauty.
Wow, so Kanter played through a separated shoulder? Dude is tough.
Wow, Bob, Wow.
Owen, was that a Twin Peaks reference?
Bucks in 5
just heard paul george call that a bad shot…in the year 2019, that no longer appears to be true…
how long before the half court shot is just – whatever…
Bucks are going to beat the piss out of the Celtics. I’d be surprised to see it go 6.
Paul George just got bounced in the first round in 5 by a bad shot, I guess. Maybe he should have taken more bad shots, himself.
Lillard actually shoots a pretty good percentage on those crazy 30+ feet shots, to the point where it’s actually a strategy. He’s made 39% of his shots between 30-40 feet, 20-51 this season. So yeah, PG is just wrong again.
i think it’s a hard question. if you look more closely none of those lillard shots from 30-40 feet this year were even 35 feet plus. in fact his average attempt in those 30-40 feet shots was around 31 feet. i think this is actually the first shot lillard has ever hit between 35-40 feet in his career. so not only is sample size from 30-40 a question, the marginal cost of distance within that range is, too.
what’s more the game was tied. so even a 39pct three doesn’t get the full benefit of the normal 1.5x multiple, since if it’s at the buzzer it has the same value as a two or a free throw. admittedly if some time is left that changes, but even then the value is less than the normal 1.5x multiple. i tend to agree that is was a bad shot. awesomely bad, of course.
To me part of what was so crazy about the shot was that despite it being insanely deep PG actually got off a pretty darn good contest because Lillard had run the clock down so far that it was became obvious he didn’t have time to drive (PG took a step forward maybe a second before the attempt). Usually one of the benefits of the crazy deep shots is that they’re very lightly contested because defenders aren’t regularly getting up that high. For example the crazy long one Lillard hit to start the series there was only a token contest. But PG was up on him last night and he had to step back and fade slightly just to get it off. I don’t know what percentage Lillard shoots on that specific look obviously but I think it was a pretty darn hard shot. Had he missed it I think there would definitely have been questions about taking such a passive approach there – but winners write the history. It’s a shot I’ll remember for a long time.
Who was/is more overrated? Westbrook or Melo?
Melo. Westbrook was nasty during his MVP season. He shot .501 TS% this year and .554 during his peak.
In 2016-17, Westbrook was slightly better than league average TS% (just between #15 MIN and #16 BRK). In 2018-19, he would have ranked well below the worst-shooting team in the league, our beloved Knicks, at .529.
Every time Westbrook shot the ball, he had less of a chance of turning it into points than the Knicks team did. If he had shot around .550, it would have improved the Thunder’s MOV by about 2 points per game, improving the Thunder from #9 to #4 in MOV.
He does a lot of stuff well, but shooting ain’t one of them.
It was. Killer shot.
I know they are per game stats and not advanced stats, but averaging a triple-double while leading the league in scoring still means you’re better than ‘Melo.
I don’t understand how Bob was created by the atomic bomb testing.
Yeah, Westbrook was an actual superstar at some point, but he forgot how to shoot free throws and went from a slightly below average 3 pointer to a terrible percentage. But he is showing a Melo side to him in the sense that he just won’t adapt, while getting angry at anyone for even suggesting he might not be helping his team.
The thing about Lillard’s shot is also how yes, even though he can hit the shot it’s a lower percentage than other plays, but he also took it cleanly. My guess is that after playing 45 minutes he wasn’t feeling confident in beating George off the dribble to create a good look, so he just took the most open shot he possibly could take, the deep 3. He might shoot a better percentage on a mid ranger on average for example, but he would certainly get well guarded and even doubled while making the move.
It may not be possible to win a championship with Westbrook on your team. He’s as dumb as a pile of rocks. I don’t care how much athletic ability you’ve been blessed with and how many triple doubles you pile up. He can’t shoot and he never could. He’s not as bad as Simmons, but Simmons plays within his skillset. So he adds a lot of value through the things he does so well. Westbrook often takes more shots than anyone on the team. Even when he scores a lot it’s often still at an average or below average efficiency. It’s like watching Melo on cocaine. For all he adds with play making and rebounding (even though some of that is just role), he throws away almost as much with his shot selection.
Great ending to that Portland OKC game, back and forth the whole 2nd half. Lillard’s winning shot was straight ridiculous. I’m really enjoying watching the Blazers, count me in on the bandwagon for these playoffs
Westbrook is so out of control for long stretches and makes the stupidest play when it counts most. Besides that he’s incredibly talented and puts up big numbers.
It bears repeating: out of Durant, Harden and Russ, OKC ended up with Russ. He’s clearly the bronze medalist in that competition. Crazy when you think about it.
Now back to our regularly scheduled GoT, fantasy novel, and cool indie band thread….
I think Bucks take it in six – there’s no way Boy Wonder coaches them out of this one.
Also, to circle back to ASOIAF/GOT, do any of you subscribe to the Eldritch Apocalypse theory for TWOW? The Aeron POV chapter seemed to confirm that a lot of it has a good chance of actually happening. It’s definitely one of the more well-thought out theories for whats going to happen if Martin can actually finish the series.
Also, 100% agreed that the show’s writing has gone down the crapper. I’ve been rewatching the series and it’s almost painful to compare seasons 1-4 to the soap opera dreck that started with the Dorne arc. We’ve had some good moments (like the Sept of Baelor, Hardhome and the loot train battle), but the show has gotten way lazier with the logistics/intrigue side of things. I’m also kind of tired of every battle being decided by a random deus ex machina army doing its best Rohan impression instead of competent planning and execution.
Anyone else think Danaerys is going full Mad Queen this season? It kind of seems inevitable that Sansa and her will butt heads over the North’s independence and he’ll have to pick a side.
I’d be more afraid to have children because they might become Knicks fans and read this thread than I would because I was afraid of climate change. 🙂
I don’t mean to dismiss or trivialize the disruptions that could occur if the climate keeps warming, but at 60 years of age I’m on my 3rd or 4th thing that was supposed to kill me and destroy all of humanity if we didn’t do something fast. So forgive me if I believe we should be investing in clean energy but climate change wouldn’t stop me from having children.
If you want to be worried about something, worry that the world can’t sustain its current debt load without printing trillions of dollars annually and setting interest rates below the free market rate – all while having 100s of trillions of dollars of promises on the books from politicians and governments that can’t do basic math and that made promises to future generations that cannot and will not be kept – all to get themselves elected by pinheads that think that laws of economics have been repealed.
That’s something to worry about.
That’s very real, there are no solutions, and it means there is likely to be period where our economic futures could be a lot worse than we expect.
Really good read on the lets not procreate cause the world is dying thing.
ExxonMobil doesn’t care whether you have another kid. The actual “best thing you can do” for the planet is anything that will reduce the political power of the fossil fuel industry, while “the worst thing you can do” is try to convince people otherwise. As Bill McKibben told me in an interview last year, “the most important lifestyle change you can make is to become a climate change activist.” This could include direct action to stop pipelines, organizing people to advocate for renewable energy, working for the election of more pro-Green New Deal politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, joining a socialist organization, or doing everything you can to get reactionaries like Donald Trump out of office.
SO speaking of HBO and the NBA, apparently HBO ordered a pilot of a SCRIPTED TV series about the 80’s Showtime Lakers from Adam McKay (The Big Short and also Will Ferrell’s writing partner).
I don’t envision it being very good but I hope I’m wrong.
Strat chiming in with his reliably terrible take.
You can set your watch to it.
Climate scientists: liars or incompetent hacks? Which is it, Strat?
Are they a bunch of hippie commies who just want to trample all over your rights or are they folks who mean well but just stink at science? Got to be one or the other, no?
The unleashing of the most powerful killing device in the history of man ushered in a new era of fear and paranoia, symbolized by Bob, the shadowy lumberjacks, etc.
I think the whole thing is a representation of the Cold War fears that Lynch grew up with in the 1950’s.
Everyone else’s mileage may vary, of course. 🙂 BTW, that’s my favorite individual episode of any TV show, ever.
Climate change denial and national debt fear mongering all in one relatively short post! The True Shitty Take Percentage (TST%) is through the roof.
I am sure the blindfolded man falling off 100 story building thinks the breeze is wonderful right before he hits splat against the ground too.
Agreed. I fully developed Stendhal’s Syndrome watching it.
I think they decided to make Cersei the Mad Queen on the show for better or worse. I think Daeny’s own interests are with Jon and that there probably won’t be much of King’s Landing left anyways if/when the fighting’s done.
Another good example for how George’s meticulous command of military history and strategy you saw in Blackwater Bay elevated the show and how Benioff and Weiss are truly clueless about all of that.
Yes, yes, and yes. The Foresaken chapter basically went a good deal of Lovecraft on us, tying a lot of what’s being foreshadowed in the WOIAF book with the plot in the SOIAF books. To me, the biggest failures in the show can be tied into Benioff and Weiss’ decision to diminish Euron’s role in their narrative. You can see that when George reset the story in Feast for Crows that he was introducing Euron to develop him into a major deity-level “fuck with the natural order of things” type player. The most interesting aspect is how it expands a lot of what’s been happening to an otherworldly level beyond mere politicking. New Gods are being made from the ashes a primordial clash that is Ragnorok in epic scale.
reference dame’s last shot…some of these players now are breaking the flipping game…like wilt did back in his day…
the step back, and recently added harden step to the side, from behind the arc moves are insane…it sure looked like a bad shot a second before he hoisted it up there…
someone mentioned the continued collapse of the lakers, the more i think about them bringing in james, while still have a roster full of players on their first contract – it seems crazier and crazier…
it’s not so much they didn’t have more shooters to surround him with – they had the entirely wrong type of players (career timeline wise)…they had a bunch of starters and key contributors still on their first contract…
the lakers should really trade all but one of their key young guys (kuzma, hart, ball, ingram) in order to get some more playoff ready guys…and, bite the bullet (contract wise) on a kemba, harris, middleton, butler type player…
It’s weird how somebody is all Mr. Empirical Data and has made these complicated horse racing algorithms and secret on/off NBA numbers and has figured out all three ways in which you can acquire a player yet has such disdain for actual scientists who do peer-reviewed work. It’s almost as if there’s confirmation bias at play here, and that this person simply can’t reconcile the reality of climate change with the tenets of his musty Ayn Randian belief system. Almost.
Imagine if Melo had a team with Harden, KD, Ibaka in his prime. Melo is stubborn but Westbrook is just stupid. His numbers mean nothing because he gives sooo much up with his horrible defense and AWFUL decision making. Hes a PG for gods sake. We saw Melo have good years when he had a good floor general. He could have fit into a championship team in his prime. Westbrook i dont think ever could have because can not be controlled.
Anyone remember this?
Great breakdown, thanks. So BOB (which is BOMB missing an M) wasn’t really an actual entity but a type of “zeitgeist” created by the Nuclear Age? Bob is just a symbolic manifestation of all that Cold War fear and hostility which poisoned the people at Twin Peaks? So Lynch basically came up with the idea for American Gods before Neil Geiman by working off the concept that human beings fetishize ideas so large and omnipresent these ideas assume an independent reality unto themselves that influence human events. So, for example, in American Gods there are different deities who representing the modern era like mass media (Media), globalization (Mr. World), and digital technology (Technical Boy) who have a sentience of their own. BOB is the Twin Peaks “Atom Bomb” version of that concept, I guess? But if this was so, then how was it possible to kill BOB? Surely he was a type of entity larger than any mortal thing, no?
Are you still trying to litigate Melo’s career? Seriously?
“Melo could have been a part of a championship team but Westbrook could not have” is a rather unfortunate take
I realize some of you have comprehension issues when it becomes to basketball, but apparently it extends to other areas.
1. I did not deny climate change or that it’s man made. I just said it would’t stop me from having children. There’s a massive difference between those two.
In my short lifetime I was supposed to get nuked to death, starve to death, freeze to death in a new ice age, get wiped out by superbugs, and now the warming climate is going to get me. All those things were and continue to be undeniable risks. But my conclusion is that human beings tend to over blow low probability risks because of the catastrophic potential.
There are always risks. If you want to have children please do it!!!!
PS: An asteroid is coming
2. Unfortunately for me, unlike the pinheads that occupy our governments, central banks, and left wing economics departments, God blessed me with an ability to do arithmetic and observe the fate of countries that think making promises that can’t be kept and printing money work indefinitely. The math behind debt and making promises you can’t keep is a certainty. All the solutions are bad. And unlike asteroids, they happen soon enough to matter to you and your children.
What a day at KB, we have climate change talk, including some kind of soft denial but not really denial that I don’t care enough to read and Melo apologism… I think I’ll start writing about Tyson Chandler and gravity effects so we have the full course meal.
Can we go back to Musicblogger?
I’ll make it quick.
I believe the earth is warming and it’s man made, but I think the implications, though potentially disruptive, are likely to be way less severe than the worst case scenarios people are throwing around. So it wouldn’t stop me from having children. I’m know I’m a caveman. lol
Based on the very large sample size of the 60 years of his own life.
I’m sure he has some super secret metric of his own that proves climate change is as overrated as building through the draft.
Plus, why be on the safe side? Go with your gut. Nuclear weapons haven’t killed us, so climate change is nothing to worry about. That makes all sorts of addled brain sense.
Strat, there’s no point trying to clarify what you said. They can’t read what you write. They see different words than the ones that you posted. It’s not your fault, it’s a product of a binary mindset in which any person who doesn’t input a 0 must be inputting a 1, even when you quite clearly input a 3.
Also, don’t expect anyone to respect your individual life experience. They only want to demand you respect theirs.
Climate change is real and fueled by humans. Unfortunately, it’s probably too late to do much about it in the next half century or so.
It’s sort of like accepting that smoking is harmful after 40 years of a 3-pack Chesterfield non-filtered habit. Even worse, because the main fossil fuel consumers are not necessarily the most adversely affected, or are so rooted in the here and now that they couldn’t care less about the future.
We should definitely modify consumption habits, as individuals and as a community, but we should also have no illusions that we are going to save ourselves from the worst effects. As to what those worst effects will be, hard to say because technology will probably mitigate some of the more dramatic stuff, e.g. building seawalls, better tropical storm and drought management, genetic modification of crops, etc. But no matter what we do in the next 10-20 years, the ice caps are fucked.
Ultimately, the solution to this problem (and many others) is cheap, non-polluting, renewable energy. We need to make fossil fuels totally obsolete. It would probably take something like cold fusion to make a dent. The other thing that would help is to modify our diets so that animal-based farming is curtailed.
It takes a truly BIG BRAIN to follow the logic behind “some people said I should be worried about a small percent chance of X occurring, and X never occurred, therefore I will disregard a completely different set of people saying I should be worried about the extremely high percent chance of Y occurring”. The logic is so bright it’s blinding my brain.
I’m backing Strat on this one…not because I agree with him, but because his words are getting twisted.
reference climate change, and, the fate of humanity…faulty god (evolution) type engineering has caused us all to enjoy fucking waaaay too much…that, coupled with a ginormous coconut for figuring out how to stay alive has us heading towards an inevitable soylent green conclusion…
we’re on our way, just enjoy the trip as much as possible…there is absolutely nothing YOU and your slightly evolved monkey brain can do about it…no reason to fret…
This is an objectively terrible argument, and I’ll tell you why: there is pretty significant consensus among climate scientists that we’re at HIGH risk, not LOW risk. Whatever, Strat’s gut knows better than those guys with the peer-reviewed studies doe.
@157 … howdy mike…
just read through poor quentyn’s apocalypse theory…initially i was like – that is some crazy shit that would never happen…then i remembered this is a fantasy series were talking about…
still, it’s hard for me to imagine an individual like grrrm who fixates on describing in excruciating detail sigils, banners, and the food being eaten throwing in some really weird apocalyptic shit like that…
then again, my first time through – i didn’t even notice it was jaqen h’ghar as pate the pig boy…r’hllor only knows what them candles are gonna be used for…i simply thought of them as some sort of magical transport system…who knows though…
Having defended you, though, Strat, I have to ask after reading this:
I think you might be conflating your personal experiences with some movies you watched! Either that or I missed the existential superbug threat in American history class.
Climate scientists are correct to the extent that their current knowledge to build models is accurate. (mostly correct)
Politicians, activists, & journalists are using fear mongering as a political tool to implement policy.
Let me give you one example from real life. Take the time to read it.
Ajit Jain runs the insurance operations for Berkshire Hathaway. He specializes in writing insurance for super catastrophes like hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods etc.. around the world. To do that well, he is constantly collecting data on weather related catastrophes so he can set prices for insurance based on the risks, costs, and actual results on the entire planet. He’s probably the single most brilliant insurance mind on planet earth. I am not exaggerating. He’s a super genius.
At last report, he was still writing tons of insurance covering those disasters & suggesting that nothing in the data indicated that storms were getting more frequent or more severe than what he’s seen in the past. (he did say “at least yet”). In fact, before our recent string of bad luck he made a fortune because we had a decade long period where storms were LESS frequent and LESS severe than the historical record suggested.
Yet as soon as we had a couple of severe storms all hell broke loose in the media and no one mentioned the rest of the story. The idea was to whip up fear.
I don’t have the data or expertise, but I’ll take the word of the insurance guy that’s betting and making billions of dollars annually over politicians and journalists. When he says it’s time to worry, it actually is time to worry.
lol That superbug is more recent. And to be honest, it’s the one that scares me the most because of global travel.
I appreciate that, but that’s pretty much always the case.
It’s like of like a few people sit around reading what I say looking for ways to twist or spin what I say into something they can disagree with and then other people read those comment and assume they reflect what I actually said instead of reading what I did say or asking me what I actually meant if it was not clear.
Gah, I try so hard to stay out of this stuff, but since I do play a bit in this arena, I have to point out the sheer absurdity of Z’s post:
Unfortunately, it’s probably too late to do much about it in the next half century or so.
…but we should also have no illusions that we are going to save ourselves from the worst effects.
Can you grasp the concept that if we don’t do something about it in the next half century, the ‘worst effects’ will be enormously worse?
I suspect you might possibly have meant to say that ‘it’s too late to entirely reverse climate change in the next half century,’ and that ‘we are not going to save ourselves from significant negative effects.’ I suspect that because it is the only possible way I can rewrite your garble into something that makes any sense. But what was written was, in fact, garble, and not that.
I read your post like “ok that’s the plot of Arachnaphobia, that’s the Day After Tomorrow, there’s Armageddon…”
I’m surprised you didn’t allude to the alien invasion that almost ended humanity on the 4th of July 🙂
Exactly this. Strat was fine when he said that he’d still have kids despite the threat of catastrophic climate change. But then he said, “Nah, all of this shit is way overblown” as the basis for the “have kids” argument. That’s nonsense.
What fucking nihilistic bullshit. How the fuck a person can make this kind of straw-man with a straight face is fucking beyond me. But this kind of self-victimization is the hallmark of a Hobby Lobby conservative in 2019. “Help, help! I’m being repressed!” No, asshole — you’re just confusing gut-level opinions with empirical argument.
This could have been taken word-for-word from the Oregon City Followers of Christ couple that let their baby die in a prayer circle because they refused to let society demand that they provide medical care to their ailing newborn.
“Don’t let them disrespect your beliefs, you two! Christ can heal your baby — I’ve got the life experience to prove it!”
tl;dr Feelings aren’t fucking facts, GTFOH
Load of crap. The scientists themselves have issued dire warnings, including the recent one by the UN International Panel on Climate Change. This has nothing to do with politicians, activists or journalists. There is widespread support for the IPCC in the scientific community. You can say that the IPCC are activists themselves, but that would be bullshit. They’re scientists. They’re calling the data as they see it. They have been criticized as being TOO conservative in their estimates.
It’s lame AF to say that it’s “politicians, activists and journalists” are using “fear mongering.” It’s the scientists themselves. And I’m going to weigh their opinion more heavily than yours, thanks.
I was going to say almost verbatim what JK47 just said. The average scientist has been far, far more “alarmist” than the average politician when it comes to the effects of climate change.
But hey, as long as some insurance salesman Strat likes says we’re fine…
Zippy, sort of, but it’s actually more about the probability that serious measures that actually might make a difference having any chance of getting institutionalized so that a difference is actually made in our lifetime. It’s not “should we” as much as “will we” that I’m trying to get at.
The two worst greenhouse gas emitting nations are USA and China. USA just elected about as radical of a climate change denying asshole as you could possibly find under a rock as its president. China doesn’t care all that much. Then there’s the problems of rain forest depletion deforestation and ocean pollution and overgrazing and crop management that all contribute to global warming. Electric cars are only starting to catch on and it will be at least another 20 years before it has even a negligible effect on new co2 emissions.
We actually COULD do something about climate change and at least mitigate some of the worst effects, but it’s a lot easier to just do the shrug emoticon and hope for the best. The superbugs never got us, so everything should be chill I guess.
Wow, talk about straw manning. Who is this person you’re calling an asshole? Hopefully not me. For one thing, that’s the kind of boundary crossing that we’re all in agreement should be avoided at all times here.
For another, I’m not a conservative. I’m a registered Democrat who has voted Clinton, Obama, Obama, Kerry, Nader (sorry about that one, I didn’t know), and Clinton since I could vote. It’s like I said above: some people are so slavishly binary that if someone doesn’t say 0, they automatically assume they said 1. Not everyone is that simple. Just bc you don’t agree with me doesn’t mean I’m a conservative.
And finally, there was no straw man in my argument. In this specific conversation, no one is taking the time to consider how strat’s personal experiences that we can’t possibly know (like growing up in the age of nuclear threat) impact his belief that one should go ahead and have children even in the face of danger. That kind of willful ignorance would be derided if applied to someone else.
I don’t think you are thinking about risk properly.
There is a risk of something occurring and there are the risks if it does occur. They are 2 separate things.
Lets say the risk of global warming continuing for a couple of decades is between 95%-100%.
The risk of the worst case scenario is much lower than 95%-100%.
There is a whole range of possible outcomes that are dependent on how accurate our models are at predicting the rate of change and the implications, what we do about, when we do it, what we learn along the way that can stall or reverse it, how other factors that influence weather impact things, our ability to adapt, migrate and change, etc.. It goes on and on.
You don’t go from global warming to “world wide disaster don’t have children” in one step.
And by the way, “the climate is changing but it won’t be nearly as bad as the libruhls say” is simply the evolved form of good old fashioned climate change denial now that literally denying the underlying fact is untenable. If anything, it’s even less intellectually honest than its predecessor.
So yeah, no one was misconstruing anything Strat said. He’s made his views extremely clear, as usual.
I just figured out the meaning of Knickerblogger.
We watch the Knicks as a comedy because it’s fun to point out all their ridiculous moves.
And so we argue with Strat, Reub, Ntilakilla for all the same reasons. You know they are throwing out crap. It’s inevitable. So it’s fun to find the crap and point at it.
Also, Strat dismissing “politicians and media” for some “bias”, but then he is all on board with some random insurance guy. Like, do you have any idea how he is compensated? Like, does he care about being right ten years from now, or is he good with short term bets that pay off. You have no idea. He just fits your narrative.
Ok, I see you’ve edited your comment.
So, to be clear, you inserted a hobby lobby conservative who is not present in this conversation so you could call him an asshole.
You did this in the same paragraph in which you accused me of using a straw man argument.
I know you hate taking an L, but come on, man. That’s worse than Russell Westbrook shooting the thunder out the game last night.
Sorry, but the UNIPCC is not going to cut it with me, but I do agree on the consensus.
Again, there is a difference between something occurring and assuming the worst case scenario. They are separate risks. Scientists (bless their hearts) have an obligation to tell us the facts and warn us about risks, but they aren’t going to sit around explaining long tail risk and standard deviations to the public to get us to change policy. They are going to say “global warning = very bad” and hope all the dummies get so scared they are willing to invest in clean energy because it’s the right thing to do.
There it is, everybody! The grand, unifying statement that ties a little bow on the whole thread:
“Don’t listen to those alarmist scientists, they’re not giving you the real facts.”
The insurance dude says it’s chill. Superbugs. This is maybe the Strat-est thing that ever Stratted.
B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O, B-I-N-G-O, and, strat and raz were their names…
seriously, the both of you should have your own talk shows – you’re audience numbers would be through the roof…
you both have mastered the art of: all eyes on me…well done gentlemen…you guys win the internet today, and, just about every other day you kick in 🙂
He has no opinion on global warming that I am aware of. He’s basically just a data and stats guy that would be right at home on this board if he was a Knicks fan. He has no vested interest other than setting the right price so he makes money for the company and for himself as a shareholder. You can know what he thinks based on how much insurance he’s willing to write and at what price. If he sees a change in the data, he will change the price and write less insurance.
Scientists: biased observers who just want you to invest in clean energy
Fossil fuel industry: telling you the truth
well now it’s getting a bit harder to defend you strat
And again, you’re willfully misinterpreting what he said.
Stratomatic was fine until he clarified his argument from “I would have kids despite the threat of climate change [for reasons derived from my personal experiences]” to “I would have kids despite the threat of climate change because it’s not all that bad because the guy from Berkshire Hathaway said so [for reasons derived from my personal experiences].” And that’s exactly what he said.
You guys are so ridiculous it’s hard to imagine why I waste my time with this nonsense.
There is a difference between giving us facts, which they do, and explaining long tail risks and probabilities to a public that will not understand it. Maybe I haven’t been aggressive enough looking for it, but I haven’t seen any report in the media that gives probabilities on the many possible outcomes ranging from mildly disruptive all the way to catastrophic.
That data may exist, but it’s not part of the public discourse influencing policy.
People (the general public) only understand “global warming = catastrophe”. That’s why we have very smart people here afraid to have children.
Not too many people anywhere understand the difference between the risk of something happening and the totally different risks associate with it happening. It’s conceptually difficult.
Oh, so no interest that could affect judgment or impartiality. Guess I’m wrong!
WRONG!! WRONG!! WRONG!!
2. I said there is a difference between the risk of something occurring (the probability of global warming is extremely high) and the risk of the worst case scenarios occurring (which is dependent on a whole host of things we cannot predict because it involves our own future actions and things we don’t fully understand). So don’t be afraid to have children because of the worst case scenarios. That’s WAY LESS CERTAIN.
2. I said the media fear mongers. Then I pointed out the real world insurance data on storms and their severity because it’s different than the narrative we get from the media every time there’s a bad storm. That’s say nothing about global warming. It says don’t form your opinion based on what you read in the media. They are full of shit. Form your opinion based on actual data. That view is consistent with my long term experience with other doom and gloom scenarios. The media seems to love doom and gloom and so do some people.
“Maybe I haven’t been aggressive enough looking for it”
You think? Just maybe? Cuz it’s really easy to find.
“but I haven’t seen any report in the media that gives probabilities ”
Unless, of course, you’re looking for the media to publish stories with high-level probability statistics leavened throughout. If you aggressively looked at the media, you might come to realize that’s not really a big part of what the media does. And maybe, I don’t know, you could read the source reports from those self-same scientists who you accuse of failure for not getting their statistical models accurately and fully described by the press.
It’s an emotionless transaction without a rooting interest.
If storms get worse he’ll raise his prices to compensate for the greater risk or refuse to write those lines of business anymore because they will be unprofitable. The fact that he’s not doing that means he knows he can write it at current prices and still make money.
Flipping a coin is 50%.
Give me 6/5 I’m in.
Give me 4/5 I’m out.
Give me 6/5 on heads and 4/5 on tails I’ll take heads.
Give me 6/5 on tails and 4/5 on heads I’ll take tails.
Ok.i see about 100 posta since Iadt checked. I’m assuming it’s more climate talk. I have Ariel Pink on spotify and feel guilty in a way that JK doesn’t make a dime off this mooching.
I acknowledged that those numbers probably exist. I just don’t know many people that sit around reading peer reviewed scientific reports other than other scientists. I’m sure I wouldn’t understand most of them. What I do know is that people think the media gives them an accurate and balanced layman’s version. On that count the media fails. They make it abundantly clear every time there’s a severe storm.
Strat, reading your last few comments has been more disheartening than anything else. Why? Because it’s extremely clear that you haven’t taken a single second to actually learn about the most recent IPCC report, which is part of a larger pattern of you never wanting to challenge a single one of your pre-conceived notions, which is part of a larger pattern of people mostly in your generation having the same characteristic, which is what leads to things like the election of Donald Trump.
You might be wondering how I knew you haven’t looked at so much as a summary of the report. Well…
GAHHHHH. The IPCC reports have done this exact thing that you’re saying, with confidence, that they do not do. They assign specific confidence intervals to various degrees of warming (1.5 degrees celsius, 2, and so on) and say what the impacts would be at each level. The reason JK47 mentioned that some people view their most recent projections as too conservative is because most of the reporting has focused only the levels of warming to which high confidence was assigned.
If you’re interested in learning more about the subject, I highly recommend the book I’m currently working through called The Uninhabitable Earth by Da-hahahahahaha who am I kidding?
Well now. That got a little crazy.
I have probably the darkest take on global warmin here. A family friend is a leading climate scientist, presidential science council (Obama) type. He says we are completely fooked. The carbon dioxide up in the air will be with us for 900 years and the level of investment necessary to address the situation is on the order of fighting WW2 for 100 years.
Not that uplifting. Those with the best intentions are engaging in a monumental act of self deception. Those without them are idiots. The rest of us should move to Canada.
The publishing on that stuff is hilarious, it ends up coming out to like $.000001 per 80 billion streams
Let me sum it up my opinion as clearly as possible in one post because I’m too busy to deal with the misunderstandings of what I am saying.
1. Global warming is real.
2. My experience in life is that the media overstates the risks of these doom and gloom scenarios actually occurring.
3. Related to #2. There is a huge difference between the probability that the earth will continue warming (high) and the probability that the worst case scenarios will occur (lower).
4. As evidence of media spin, the reporting on storms has not been accurate based on insurance data from the best super cat insurance underwriter on earth (you know the data and stats we all supposedly love).
5. Don’t let global warming stop you from having children.
6. Debt, money printing, and making long term promises you cannot and will not keep is a very bad way to run a government and world.
“The rest of us should move to Canada.”
Average temperatures in Canada have already increased by 1.7 degrees Celsius since 1948. Continued amplification of warming at high latitudes is projected under all scenarios of future climate change. Along with higher temperatures and increased rainfall, we will see rising sea levels. Warmer waters and ocean acidification are expected to become increasingly evident over the next century.
The nation has experienced a higher rate of warming than most other regions of the world, particularly in its far-north and west. This warming has been most pronounced in the winter and springtime, and it’s leading to a number of major impacts across the country. These include permafrost and ice melt in the Arctic, sea-level rise, and more frequent and severe extreme weather, such as once-uncommon heat extremes and major changes in precipitation.
Your friend sounds smart and all but has he ever sold insurance? You have to look at that.
At the time I wasn’t. He has subsequently said additional things that, as Z-Man pointed out, make it harder for him to defend.
When he was only talking about having kids in the light of potential extinction, I thought it was right to be more mindful of his experience growing up in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis (not to mention the superbug plague that we’re all too young to remember).
As he’s continued to speak, he’s adding things that I can’t ignore and won’t defend. But those things came after my post. I know you tend to read this things from the bottom up, so I can see where you might be coming from.
@217, that’s kind of what I’m saying. As a global community, and even as a local community, we simply don’t have the will to commit to any solutions that will make even a negligible impact, much less a meaningful one.
I’m open to learning more about what difference actually can be made by a more modest goal, e.g. reduce all carbon emissions from passenger vehicles by 90% by the year 2030. Between emissions from trucks, planes, cow farts, ships, conventional power production, etc., and continuing deforestation in various ecosystems, it doesn’t seem like anything short of catastrophe will make the global powers take much notice.
If you want apocalyptical reporting, just load the front page of The Weather Channel on any given day.
It’s not that I’m not interested. I trust independent scientists, but I do not trust the IPCC reports or anything else related to the UN. The UN is a political body. It’s an institution I hold in disdain for other reasons.
Again, please don’t say I said things I didn’t say. That’s why I am forced to waste precious time here or feel compelled to leave. I know that scientists have the those models and SAID SO. I simply added that the public does not understand long tail and other kinds of risks. So all that’s getting communicated to the public is doom and gloom because that’s what the media does.
Then I retract any barbs directed at you in full, as I agree with your middle paragraph.
The long story/novella “Story of Your Life” by Ted Chiang, which was adapted into the excellent but less-emotionally-potent Arrival, is one of the better narratives I’ve read of the emotional burden of parenthood in an uncertain world. Highly recommended.
lmao we are so fucked 🙁
Honestly, I don’t think there’s much that can be done about global warming without causing a global depression.
I’m not understating the risks in the global economy right now. We are in uncharted territory when it comes to debt relative to global GDP, negative real and nominal interest rates, and quantitative easing. There’s no precedent for what central bankers are doing to prop up the global economy in recorded history. They are flying blind doing things that a few decades ago any responsible economist on earth would have totally freaked out about. Most smart investors are freaking out.
The only thing that can probably be done is to incentivize the development of clean energy technology so it makes economic sense for private individuals and corporations to put up the money. You can’t just cut off what’s being done now to quickly without bringing down the whole system. Unfortunately, it’s going to be a very slow process.
This is literally the only Internet forum where I converse. I feel like some of you are other ones. I find that other forums – like Twitter, facebook, whatever the fuck Reddit is (it sounds horrible) – tend to be incredibly binary.
It seems to me that there is a natural inclination for people involved in many forums to ascribe the arguments of someone who aggravated them in forum A to a post in Forum B that slightly sounds like something they heard in forum A, but isn’t really the same thing.
That’s the best theory I can come up with as to why there tend to be reading comprehension issues with people who I know don’t struggle with reading comprehension. There’s just too many damn conversations in some of our minds and the shit overflows. And to be clear, I’m not referring to anyone specifically. Just to the abundance of instances where someone feels like their comments are misread.
This is a test of awaiting confirmation.
it’s not that hard to figure out really, for the most part – we’re all just waiting for it to be our turn to talk…i only really read the first few words of each of your paragraphs, and, i was ready to type 🙂
The UN was probably a good idea in theory, but the execution has been terrible to put it mildly. The auto censor won’t let me post what I really think. lol Let’s just say, not for me.
If you are going to challenge my willingness to look at information that conflicts with my preconceived views you should at least contemplate the possibility that Ajit Jain knows more about storms than whatever it is you like to read. He’s betting billions on it.
I think arguing over the UN is a bridge too far. Or should I put up a thread so we can argue the merits of the Large Hadron Collider and decry the corruption of Big Physics?
Mitch, if you are reading this, we will shortly return to talking about how awesome you are.
I like to read the work of the people who study storms
Btw, Kanter thanked the Knicks for waiving him in the post game press conference.
On behalf of all of us I would like to say you’re welcome Enes.
“The journalists are fearmongering”
Well, actually the scientists say—
“The scientists are fearmongering”
Okay dude. Even the people who were defending you have stepped off.
I still would like to know more about this superbug apocalypse.
strat, ajit almost exclusively writes one-year contracts. his premium rates aren’t good evidence of his views on the serious risks of anthropogenic climate change over much longer time frames.
Not sure about the superbug, but I remember the Y2k scare. Not much of a scare, really, more of a joke.
So far all the predictions of how much the climate will warm have been too conservative. That is, each year the actual carbon dioxide increase and the actual warming were higher than predicted.
Scientific predictions of climate change aren’t long tail risks at all. They are average or median predictions
Let’s hope the second round is better. Will put up a new thread if the Morning News doesn’t boot.
What ptmilo said. If you’re conflating rates set for short term actuarial tables and long term projections for a planet that has no human scale expiration date you aren’t just making an error of scale, you’re making an egregious category error.
Boomers refusing to mildly inconvenience themselves because they’ll be dead before climate change gets too bad is going to fuck the whole world.
Just hopping in to say that I’ve talked to climate scientists online and in-person and they all say it’s worse than the public thinks. Their public facing estimates are for various reasons more conservative than what they think is most likely. They’re pretty depressed!
The Clippers are playing incredible basketball and I bet they lose by like 15
Up ten going into the fourth, they probably lose by 15. Shame. Extra game of rest would be nice for the Rockets. I really want a Harden v Giannis final. The leagues two unstoppable players, with radically different games.
Lou Williams does not want to go home.
He’s gonna give Ballmer a coronary.
wow, incredible answer by the clips/lou…i thought they were about to lose by 10…
Hot fucking damn.
What an amazing win by the Clippers. The Warriors played a good game, too, and the Clippers still won! Wow!
NBA Twitter came haaaaaaaaaaaaaard for Donovan Mitchell after his poor game tonight.
“Donovan Mitchell just Isaiah Canaan wit a curl sponge”
“Donovan Mitchell is just Kelly Oubre with terminal diabetes”
“I almost called Donovan Mitchell Tyreke Evans with a green light but then I remembered Tyreke has a rookie of the year trophy”
I can’t believe the Clippers managed to hang on, Lou was gigantic down the stretch. Harrell, Gallo and Beverley all had huge games, Beverley somehow got 14 rebounds. I can say I have truly changed my mind about Rivers as a coach, the work he has done with this weird mix of talented and flawed players is super impressive.
How the fuck do you fire Igor Kokoskov? That’s some dysfunctional shit right there.
It’s absolutely wild the best team of all time has no answers for Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. How many teams have won two games in Oakland in the last 5 years in the playoffs? The Cavs?
It’s interesting that Doc Rivers’ nickname for Gallinari is “Gal.” Like Mitch, he must not have been reading Knickerblogger!
Boy, Doc Rivers is such a great coach.
Yep, just the Cavs in 2016 (winning Games 5 and 7).