(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 2:46:39 PM)
Courtney Lee will be getting more playing time, but not at the NBA level, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post. The Knicks are sending Lee, who has missed most of the season with a neck injury, to their G League affiliate in Westchester so he can rack up minutes in tomorrow night’s […]
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 2:46:39 PM)
Courtney Lee will be getting more playing time, but not at the NBA level, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post. The Knicks are sending Lee, who has missed most of the season with a neck injury, to their G League affiliate in Westchester so he can rack up minutes in tomorrow night’s […]
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 2:10:00 PM)
LeBron James was always looking for a reason to play in New York.
James Dolan never gave him one.
Given the events of the last decade or so, that would be a reasonable interpretation of James’ latest tease to Knicks fans. Although at this point it’s much more of a gut-punch.
Following his final…
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 12:35:00 PM)
The conversion of Allonzo Trier’s contract will be delayed as the Knicks guard will miss at least the next three games with a hamstring strain.
Trier is currently on a two-way NBA and G-League deal, but is fast approaching the limit of 45 days with the NBA team before that contract needs to be…
[NYTimes] Stephen Curry Doubts Moon Landings. NASA Offers to Show Him the Rocks. (Tuesday, December 11, 2018 12:36:04 PM)
The space agency invited the Golden State star to visit the Johnson Space Center, “perhaps the next time the Warriors are in town to play the Rockets.”
(Wednesday, December 12, 2018 1:48:11 AM)
With LeBron James MSG comments causing a stir, Knicks head coach David Fizdale is hoping to use The Garden’s aura to lure free agents of the future.
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 11:18:19 AM)
LeBron James is just teasing Knicks fans now.
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 2:55:32 PM)
The emergence of undrafted Knicks rookie Allonzo Trier hit a speed bump this week when he strained his left hamstring.
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 6:19:25 PM)
CLEVELAND — If David Fizdale is doing push-ups on the Garden sidelines during a game, you’ll know rookie shotblocking center Mitchell Robinson has improved his defensive posture. Fizdale has a fun bet going with Robinson, the Knicks’ second-round project who has been plagued by foul trouble. Robinson’s problems, according to the coaching staff, stem from…
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 5:18:14 PM)
CLEVELAND — His three-game penance is over, and Frank Ntilikina said his mind is now “free’’ after he looked like a young Tony Parker on Sunday at the Garden — on French Heritage Night. Indeed, Ntilikina looked like a superstar in the second half of the Knicks’ 119-107 loss to the Hornets, scoring all of…
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 11:34:18 AM)
CLEVELAND — As LeBron James reaffirmed Monday night at Staples Center, Madison Square Garden has always held a special grip on his heart. Not the Knicks, mind you, but the arena on 33rd Street, sandwiched between 7th and 8th avenues. In a conversation with Dwyane Wade after they played against each other for the final…
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 6:49:01 AM)
If you are a New York sports obsessive, there’s a good chance you may have missed this scene late Monday night because you were doing as your fellow obsessives were doing: wearing out Twitter every 15 or 20 seconds, refreshing, refreshing, refreshing, as the first frenzy of activity at baseball’s winter meetings began to churn….
(Tuesday, December 11, 2018 6:17:31 AM)
Courtney Lee is headed to the minors. The 33-year-old shooting guard, who returned three games ago from a mysterious, season-long neck injury, has been assigned to the G League’s Westchester Knicks to play against the Lakeland Magic on Wednesday so he can get big minutes. Lee admitted over the weekend he’s in preseason form, and…
70 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.12.12)”
Hey, the Knicks play again today! Hoping for another classic tank game like the last one, where Frank and Knox and Mitch play well but we lose easily.
Courtney Lee 1/9 from three in the G-League. Maybe he should stay there a couple more games.
I would have no problem keeping Burke as our future backup PG (we’ll need one and have to pay whoever it is anyway), but given management and coach seem to like Mudiay better (and he is taller and younger), perhaps we should be thinking about trading Burke or using him as a sweetener in a Lee trade. That also gets Frank back into the lineup at PG more.
Willy is a good rebounder and scorer around the basket who has been working on his shooting range. He’s a good player. But the profile for an NBA center now is a guy that can protect the paint and also defend on the perimeter if there are switches or the other team has a stretch C. Guys like Willy (and Kanter) are out of favor because they don’t provide one critical skill (paint protection) and get targeted by opposing offenses because of other defensive liabilities. I still think it was a bad idea to get rid of him. They could have found the minutes to keep him or they should have traded O’Quinn given they foolishly let him walk for nothing anyway.
He has the best contract in the G-League.
It all depends on what they plan to do this offseason. Since they seem intent on getting a max guy, how can they possibly keep Mudiay? So if they have to renounce Mudiay, Burke becomes a very important keeper as one of the few guys that they can bring back next year even after signing a max guy.
@5
It does get complicated.
On my personal odds line, I don’t think Durant, Irving, or Leonard is going to come to NY. We are too far away from being a legit contender unless we could somehow bring in another quality player or KP looks like a monster when he comes back. Guys like that might be willing to blow one developmental year, but it’s asking a lot to blow more than that.
My fear is that they do something MEGA-DUMB with the cap space if Plan A fails.
I’d rather use some of the cap space to keep our role players (who could always be traded later if they are on good deals) and try to push some of it forward to the following year than give someone like Kemba the max.
Considering our cap space, I was checking out this list:
Anyone know if Harris can defend? He and Dinwiddie are my picks, assuming we can’t get Leonard or Durant.
I don’t really see a need for Burke on this team at all, as much as I like his story. He’s definitely not a starting PG, so he is most likely a spark plug type of guy off the bench. I’m assuming they are going to keep Trier next year, who basically fits that same description but has the distinction of being younger, bigger, and a more efficient scorer than Burke, if somewhat even more ball-hoggy.
Mudiay, as much as I appreciate his “resurgence” from being one of the 5 worst players in the league to an average/below-average guard, is obviously not going to be on the team next year unless he either somehow shows he is worthy of his $12MM cap hold (very very very unlikely) or is willing to come back on what is basically a minimum or part-of-room exception/ BAE type deal.
The other issue is whether we need another PG at all. Frank presumably will still be on the team, and if we sign Durant would be a pretty good fit – ie. needs to be able to defend and theoretically shoot, while acting as a secondary ball-handler. Neither Burke nor Mudiay would fit as well with Durant as Frank or even Trier who would be great off the ball as a shooter. We could also draft a guy like Barrett who really is a primary ball handler, or even Ja Morant who would need the ball in his hands.
If they get Durant, then yes, that’s fair, but if they get, say, Kemba instead, then Burke would be of more use.
I agree with all this. But given the position Phil put us in, I think Willy was a good B move at a time when we were unable to benefit from it because so many F moves were on the books. Those 4 years where we have him for $6mm are 4 noncompetitive years. So they traded one good B move for the opportunity to make two good B moves when all the mistakes were gone.
Isn’t that kinda smart?
It is literally valuing two birds in the bush more than the bird in the hand. But it was a bird in the hand when your hand was tied behind your back.
I know the argument is we traded him when his value was lowest but our return suggests that we overcame that. Two good seconds in an environment where no one trades firsts isn’t selling for ten cents on the dollar even if we did bury him on the bench.
You keep Burke because he’s a decent backup PG and there is an arbitrage opportunity with him. He’s worth more than $2.3mm and you can re-sign him this summer for more than that while he only counts $2.3mm against the cap.
Mudiay doesn’t offer any such opportunity and is probably not even a good backup PG.
Burke is a Nate Robinson type of player. Bursts of good scoring here and there, no real steady production. Totally useless long-term.
This tanking thing is annoying me. It used to be that prep to pros were more or less sure things, with notable exceptions, of course. Now, almost every first round pick is basically that, with 30 games of “minor league” action. So, you drafting has gotten a lot more hit or miss. How do you evaluate those kids? You are not paying them value money and they’re due a huge extension when they’re the still equivalent of a triple A prospect. Beyond Zion how do we know anyone is worth it? Meanwhile, you’re ditching an entire season for this type of lottery ticket.
The draft is an opportunity but not a bank account…
Herzagomez was a 2nd round pick. Getting 2 second round picks for one second round picks is a good trade. Considering we’ve found Mitch, Dotson and yes, Willy…in the second round…I would say we could easily look back on the Willy trade in a few years and be glad we traded him. Again, Mitch is all ready a massive improvement over Willy as far as the back up big department. He’s younger, more athletic, way better on defense and has a much higher ceiling.
If Willy stayed we would either have not picked Robinson or we would have picked him and Willy would still be behind him and Kanter (and Vonleh for that matter) in the rotation.
I see Burke as a good backup but non-essential. My preference would be to use him as a sweetener to move Lee because I don’t think anyone is going to want Mudiay in some kind of deal like that.
I thought the Mudiay deal was nuts when it happened even though he was still young enough to get better. He has improved, but I still don’t see the end game here unless he improves a lot more.
Burke makes more sense from a cap perspective, but I’ve really grown to dislike his game this year. Every now and then, he goes off on a team like the Celtics, but the rest of the time it’s just a lot of overdribbling and low-percentage shooting without getting his teammates involved. As others have said, Trier may already be a better version of that type of instant-offense player.
Also, per Iseman:
Which means it’s going to happen soon, even if it’s not tonight. What happens with Hezonja after that will be interesting. He’s played awfully, but from a political standpoint in terms of dealing with agents, making the team an enticing spot for future free agents, etc., it’s a bad look for the team to essentially banish him a third of the way into a season where he signed in hopes of resurrecting his career. It’s the kind of thing that shouldn’t matter at all in a pure meritocarcy, but winds up mattering the way the team/league actually works. So we may not be done with him yet.
The timeline based argument is the best one in favor of the trade, but I still think it’s pretty weak.
For better or worse (likely worse) the front office seems dead set on trying to compete next season. Willy at $1.5M would definitely help with that.
After 2020 he’s an RFA with with a tiny cap hold, and I don’t see any reason to believe he would get some ridiculous offer sheet (and even if he did, we’ll probably be so far over the cap by that point that it won’t matter). Again there does appear to be a market inefficiency for players like him.
The reason our timetable isn’t good for free agents is because we don’t have many productive, young players like Willy Hernangomez.
@13
I’ve been arguing for over a year that the draft is more of a “lottery ticket” than it used to be and picks are being overvalued. Even if you are lucky enough to draft an 18-19 year old that does show some promise (though not necessarily even a good value on his rookie deal) you may have to extend him for way more money than he’s worth to keep him on the assumption he’ll eventually improve enough to be worth it.
I see the lure of hitting a grand slam in the draft. It can be franchise altering. But there are a lot more ways to strike out now with the kids being so young and unproductive when they come out.
If Burke can be the one thing that lets you get rid of Lee, then yes, move him. I don’t think he’s that much honey, though.
Hmm, tough to argue with this. I guess I’ve changed my mind. I wonder if Denver could get two second round picks for Jokic. Probably not, since he was just one second round pick.
Robinson was a 2nd round pick and Trier was undrafted.
Would you trade either of them for two 2nd rounders now just because of where we got them?
Granted, we have drafted really well in the second round. Maybe a 2nd round pick is worth more to us than the average team. But it’s hard to tell how much of that was good fortune and how much was luck. Finding someone like Willy, Robinson, or Trier (who was undrafted) in the 2nd round is not so easy. It may be tougher without guys like Clarence Gaines on the payroll patrolling the globe.
@14
+1. Easily one of the best moves of Perry era.
Do find it puzzling that the draft seems to be more of a crap shoot despite all the advances in stats. Empirically, the value of second round picks has to have risen in recent years.
He has the best contract in the G-League.
This made me laugh. Here’s the where-are-they-now of every one of Phil’s free signings:
1. Courtney Lee – recently led the Westchester Knicks to a valiant defeat (contract not yet complete)
2. Carmelo Anthony – out of the NBA (contract not yet complete)
3. Robin Lopez – glued to the bench for maybe the worst team in the league, current WS48 negative (contract not yet complete)
4. Arron Afflalo – out of the NBA (contract complete)
5. Derrick Williams – out of the NBA (contract complete)
6. Lance Thomas – most under-dressed assistance coach in the NBA (contract not yet complete)
7. Brandon Jennings – out of the NBA, but good at twitter (contract complete)
8. Joakim Noah – starring in an indie revenge porn film based in Memphis (contract not yet complete)
9. Jason Smith – recent career change to human tax deduction (contract complete)
10. Mindaugas Kuzminskas – unresolved anger at having his job made redundant by a less productive Kiva robot “Hezonja” has led to him traveling with two therapy animals (contract complete)
that’s all folks
Yes, because every second round pick is equally valuable!
Come on.
In the history of the 2 round draft, the best second rounder the Knicks have drafted before this year is Landry Fields. I’m not joking. Now because they found Mitchell Robinson in the draft on a freak occasion (because he was only a 2nd rounder in the first place because of the bizarre college situation), getting 2 middling 2nds is better than an actual productive young player!
Look, I try to respect your optimism swift and your neverending support for whoever is the current buffoon on the front office, but it gets hard sometimes.
It doesn’t even matter what the return was; the Knicks actively lowered the value of an asset by burying him on the bench based on the wishes of a coach who was about to be fired anyway, then traded him at his lowest possible value. That is stupidity. There was literally zero reason to trade him at that time other than pleasing the damn coach they would fire 5 months later.
@23
Good Lord, that’s all true. Paints a bit of a picture.
@17
Well said.
Once a guy is drafted they’re no longer a pick. If we traded the pick that we used to draft Willy for two 2nd round picks that would be a good trade (let’s assume they were likely to be about the equal pick). But the point of having picks is to hopefully get a good player. Odds are you’re not getting a good player with a second round pick, so if you do get one that player is more valuable than a pick or two.
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/251895/Pelicans-Pistons-Kings-Identified-As-Active-Buyers-On-Trade-Market
How ’bout THJ and Courtney for Shump and Z-Bo?!
Knicks could shed contracts; enhance the tank; give THJ’s shots to the youngsters; while giving Sacramento the kind of trade they cannot seem to help making.
Plus getting Shump and Z-Bo back could tickle our b****s a little for the rest of this season.
Re: Burke I think we’re sadly finding out what kind of player he is when he doesn’t shoot like DeAndre Jordan at the rim and Dirk Nowitzki from midrange. I’d still be interested in negotiating with him as a free agent just because he’s very cheap and not useless, but he’s expendable and I’d trade him for any asset in a second.
@24
Look at the second chart. Salary obligation is stepwise decline to zero in the second round, while value decline is asymptotic. So if you believe in this chart, you do have to believe that 31st pick is more valuable than the 30th. From there, use logic.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-is-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery-really-worth/
@23 How could you leave out Mr. “Total Shots=Total Points”, Derrick Rose?
I think, given Fields’ rapid decline, that Dotson is better than him. Not by much, but better overall. If we were talking about rookie year Fields, he’s still the best.
It wasn’t a free agent signing.
Well, technically Robin Lopez wasn’t either
Second rounders have grown in value because that’s where the more experienced basketball players are. The first round is basically a high school draft. Better minds than I could possibly assess, is the second half of the lottery outperforming the first half? Is the second half of the first round doing the same? G-League players are often battle tested and ready as well. The Knicks lucked into KP and would have taken Russel or Okafor had they been there. Seems like the better players are actually the better players and often not the ones who could be better later. NYK needs to make smart decisions. I’m frightened of getting the 1st pick given our FO. Kwame Brown come on down…
Uh?
That’s not true.
Word at the time was that Phil was always (because of Gaines) looking at KP. He made a series of really dumb moves (see ptmilo’s FA signing list, above), but generally he drafted well. There is absolutely no evidence to the contrary re: the KP pick. Not to mention, I don’t think we’re even aware of Willy if KP weren’t heavily scouted at the same time.
@36
What I love on that link: “Notable free agents: A. Bargnani, A. Schved.”
I did like Schved….a fun and not totally useless player for the minimum.
Shump and ZBo would be hilariously weird. Instead of having some veterans for guidance for the young players, they would be cautionary tales for the young Knicks of what not to be.
I can see it now. Fiz is showing game tape from 2014 and 2007, pointing out egregious mistakes that ZBo and Shump made and saying “see? You don’t want to do this.” Anytime one of the youngsters complain about Fiz, ZBo could remind him gently “yeah but I was here when Isiah was a coach. You don’t even know how fucked up it was here then.”
If they made that trade, I would hope they would just cut Shump. ZBo could stick around for the rest of the season though. He could probably teach Robinson a thing or two about rebounding and some post moves and he also can provide a lot of insight into what road not to travel down as a young player.
I don’t think the Kings would make that trade because at least as of now, Shumpert would be the best player in the deal. It only took him 8 years to turn into the guy we were all hoping he’d be! I doubt it’ll last but I’m happy for the guy.
Better minds than I could possibly assess, is the second half of the lottery outperforming the first half?
@37
I’ll explain the difference in the Knicks success rate between drafting and free agency.
1. When you draft, you get to evaluate a dozen players in your pick range and can use your basketball acumen to find the ones that are better than their draft position and that fit into your vision of the future for the team. In other words, if you have a good basketball mind and can evaluate talent well, theoretically you should find some bargains in the draft.
2. When it comes to free agency, it doesn’t matter how you rank all the available players or how they fit in, you can only pick from among the players that are willing to play for your dumpster fire of a team. They also have agents with spreadsheets of stats and salaries for comparable players. So it’s tough to get a bargain.
When your team is a shit show (like the Knicks) and you have a lot of cap space, the smartest thing you can probably do is sign short contracts with the mediocre players willing to play for you. The idea being you should try improve the team with the draft picks and any trades or free agency signings that happen to work out OK. Then when your short free agency contracts are up quickly (and those players leave the league or end up on someone else’s bench), you can test the free agency waters again in the next couple of years with a less shitty team and see if anyone good will play for you next time.
IMHO, the better test of basketball acumen is located in the draft and to a lesser extent trades, but it’s hard to tell where your own management fits in because sample sizes are small and the players are so young it has become more difficult to evaluate them well.
All that said, I’d rather have Clarence Gains and Phil evaluating the talent than Mills and Perry, but Phil made a bad situation worse on the free agency side by alienating players around the league and overpaying a few of them to come to our dumpster fire of a team.
This is…not the smartest thing you can do.
“the best second rounder the Knicks have drafted before this year is Landry Fields”
I don’t know how old are you guys, but Gerald Wilkins and Trevor Ariza were 2nd rounders.
I’m still awaiting an answer to the question: What do you think Willy’s trade value is right now and why do no teams seem to be pursuing him? One would think that since Orlando is not playing him and has no plans to move either Frank K or Vucevic, they’d be happy to move him. Are even the smart GMs like Morey (desperate for bench scoring right now) and Buford asleep at the switch?
Hard to argue with the fact that Orlando has given him zero minutes this season. QED
If you are going to argue that you can rent your cap space for draft picks, keep in mind that that’s also a negotiated and relatively efficient market. Most deals are fair. There are also sensible deals and foolish ones.
That means you may get a draft pick out of it (which is good), but the value of that draft pick will depend on how shitty the contract is that you are taking on and how long it’s going to be tying up cap space that you might otherwise be able to use effectively but can’t.
So for example, if the Knicks are likely to be good enough in 2019 to attract top players in free agency, it might not make much sense to rent cap space for 3 years to get a 1st rounder in 2020. That kid will be 19 years old in 2020 and peak in around 2026. I’d rather hand out a 1 year contract to a slug this year that will probably be out of the league the following year and take another shot at free agency in 2019. If we are 3-5 years away from being a FA destination, then renting cap space for picks might make a lot more sense depending on the terms.
Yeah, for Orlando his trade value is certainly negative!
Since he’s not playing for the Hornets it’s obvious he doesn’t have trade value. I don’t get why that matters so much for you. Trade value has never been completely about productivity, but mostly about reputation. The Knicks traded Melo for something positive when he was probably the worst player in the entire league relative to his contract.
Like I said, I have no idea why a specific front office is doing what they’re doing, I don’t have a crystal ball. All I can evaluate is a players production and go from there. The Rockets have Nene and barely play Centers anyway, the Spurs have a glut of big men with Poeltl needing minutes, so those two are pretty easy to understand.
@44
If you read the entire post I specifically mentioned “since the 2 rounds draft format”. Gerald Wilkins was drafted in 85 when the draft had 7 rounds.
I didn’t mention Ariza either because he played what, 1 and a half season with the Knicks and he wasn’t even good at the time. Fields rookie year was certainly better than Ariza’s rookie year for the Knicks.
My bad, I forgot we sent them Lopez as part of the Rose deal, but originally acquired him as a FA.
I always said, if I had to fuck a guy… I mean had to, if my life depended on it… I’d fuck Willy
I mentioned it last thread but I’ll say it again: there have always been some players that, for whatever reason, coaches simply do not like. KOQ was one of those guys and Willy seems to be another. No idea why, but if FOs can’t get coaches to play them it’s not entirely clear to me that they are all that valuable to have. A Willy that sits the bench under Fizdale doesn’t seem a hell of a lot different to me than a Willy that sits the bench under James Borrego. He’s not a useful player either way. I do wish I knew what he was doing to be permanently in the doghouse though. I’d tell him to stop.
@51
That’s honestly a more valid reason than “he can’t play defense”. Like I said multiple times, we all can only guess why he doesn’t play and it’s very likely we’ll never know the reason anyway. Maybe he’s a pain in the ass in practice, maybe he’s just too hot and coaches get jealous, who knows.
I’d rather comment on his production, which is tangible and measurable.
Prolly this. They’re scared of getting reverse Fishered.
literally the same team plays Tony Parker
Just noticed Mitch’s box +/- is better than Durant’s. Why would we sign Durant for a megamax when we get the same per minute production from a guy who’s contract is negligible? Am I right?
I guess he’s kinda cute but he’s not really my type.
But it matters tremendously in determining whether the Knicks made a bad decision in trading him for 2 second rounders when they did. The point is that business trades should be evaluated solely in terms of value coming back vs. value sent out, not on some romantic interpretation of what could have been or may be someday. There is no getting around the reality that we got back exactly what Willy was worth then, and probably more that he is worth right now on the open market. It’s one thing to say that Willy would be great if only given a chance, and another to say we made a bad trade because he’s a cost controlled asset. We got 2 cost-controlled assets in return for him (I mean, what’s more freakin’ cost controlled than a second-round pick?!) and each of those assets might actually be worth more than Willy in the current market (i.e. might bring back more in a trade.)
We can legitimately debate whether Willy is a good or a bad player, but there is absolutely no debate about whether or not we should have traded Willy or not based on either what we got back for him or what he’s worth right now. If anything, we won that trade. It’s simply ridiculous to say otherwise.
I know it’s not your thing to respond to specific examples of things that have actually occurred, but in the exact same offseason Phil Jackson spent our cap space on Arron Afflao and Derrick Williams, Sam Hinkie took on the contracts of Carl Landry and Jason Thompson for an unprotected first round pick and two pick swaps. Landry and Thompson were actually a smaller financial commitment than the ones Phil made due to Afflao and Williams’ hilariously moronic player options.
More generally, it’s still very dumb to light your cap space on fire in the event that you can’t find a good asset dump.
First of all, no notable free agents are going to be fooled by your team if the Arron Afflalos of the world get you 3o wins instead of 23. To the extent that free agents care about situation as opposed to who offers the most money (so basically only consensus max players), they’re looking for teams that have demonstrated sustainable success. The Phil Jackson idea that you can sign a bunch of bad players, win 41 games, and then have all the elite free agents begging to sign with you (this was the exact plan he outlined to Peter Vecsey) has no historical precedent and makes no sense logically.
Second of all, you can often find asset dumps during the season. You won’t be able to capitalize on them if you blew your money on Derrick Williams.
Lastly, roster spots are a valuable resource that you can use to get extended looks at second rounders, UDFAs, G League standouts, etc. You gain nothing by giving them to guys who you know from the outset have no future with your team.
@58
1. There are bargain trades, drafts, and FA signings done in the NBA every year. Just because you can find an example of one of a certain type that was a steal, that does not mean the same deal was available to another team or that they happen all the time. Usually, it’s not very clear until after the fact.
2. You are NOT setting cap space on fire if you give out a short term contract to some mediocre player. You are preserving it so you can use it when you think it will have greater value.
3. No one is trying to fool free agents by signing short term deals to win 30 games. The goal is to build the team via draft, trade, free agency etc.. until you get to the point that are you are good enough to attract free agents. As part of that process, there will be times you have cap space that you can’t use effectively at that time. When that happens, one option is to give out short term contracts.
4. No one is arguing that you should never rent out cap space for draft picks. I am arguing that that market is fairly efficient in general. It’s not like great deals are always available. Some of those deals turn out terribly even though the team got a pick out of it because they have cap space tied up at the exact point they could have signed a very good player in free agency instead. No one notices that.
These market are relatively efficient. There is no one sure fire way or right choice except being open to everything.
Ian Begley
ESPN Staff Writer
David Fizdale tells reporters in Cleveland that he is considering a lineup change. Kevin Knox is mentioned as a potential replacement for starting forward Mario Hezonja.
If Willy was given 36 minutes a night, he may or may not continue to put up the same boxscore stats per 36, but I would bet anyone 10k at even money that if we could measure it PROPERLY, his contribution to team wins would be less than the boxscore models indicate (at least at this stage in his development).
Boxscore data is fine in general, but the models are woefully bad with some combinations of skills (or lack thereof). I’d be the last guy to argue that coaches are always right in their minutes allocations. I’ve been calling Fizdale a pinhead lately. But when a lot of coaches are not playing someone that appears to be very productive based on boxscore stats, it’s usually not the coaches that are wrong. They are seeing negative things that are not being picked up in the boxscore.
I like Willy and wish he was still on the team. But he’s nowhere near as valuable as the boxscore says. Some of the things he does not do well are very valuable at his position.
In concept, I agree with you. In practice, Phil was open to dumb things.
For the record, I am in full agreement that Willy never should have been permabenched by Hornacek. It was one of many stupid moves that Hornacek made as coach of a rebuilding team.
Theory and reality often collide. He knew he was coaching for his job. So there were limits on how much developmental time he was going to give to Willy when Kanter and O’Quinn were still better.
Phil did a lot of dumb things, but he’s already forgotten more about basketball than the current management team will ever know. Despite his mistakes, he put the team in a good position going forward with KP, Dotson, Frank, and cap space (and Hernangomez) all without a couple of picks – which they immediately screwed up by putting Baker and Hardaway into his space and setting the rebuild back.
As far as I am concerned, all the evidence indicates these guys overvalue scoring, undervalue defense, overvalue individual shot creation and athleticism, and pretty much have no idea what they are doing EXCEPT drafting fairly well this year. And I’m not entirely sure who is responsible for Trier, Robinson, and Knox. I strongly suspect it was Gaines that was responsible for the first two and Fizdale for Knox.
@60 – I dig it. I know Knox is not popular on this board but I say give the kid the opportunity to develop.
While it is very true that great deals are in fairly short supply, the market for NBA players is in no way efficient. A small market with extremely limited supply of talent coupled with ‘purchasers’ frequently using wildly inaccurate performance data (eye test) in a space where salaries are tightly restricted and failing doesn’t mean your business fails? Not remotely close to efficient and unlikely to ever be so.
Which isn’t to say that it should be opened up more or anything, just that it in no way resembles a free market and the analogy itself is not all that useful beyond the occasional ‘NBA FOs are undervaluing whatever so maybe someone can take advantage.’
Strato = Reub?
All the Hezonja super fans here are going to be PISSED
Strat it’s just hard to have this debate when you continue to speak in such generalities that the strategies of Danny Ainge and Phil Jackson sound similar.
Enlighten me as to how mediocre ass free agents assist you in this grand “build the team via draft, trade, free agency etc.. until you get to the point that are you are good enough to attract free agents” strategy. What purpose do they serve? How do they help set a direction for the team?
If your goal is to preserve cap space, there’s an incredibly easy way to do that. Don’t spend it! Fill out your roster with young guys who have a puncher’s chance of helping you in the long-term and be done with it. You’ll either distribute the difference between your payroll and the salary floor evenly between everyone on your roster (Hinkie built up legitimate goodwill this way) or you’ll find a deal that makes sense for you in-season. There is no half-decent reason to light it on fire with Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams.