Knicks Morning News (2018.09.06)

  • [NYDN] Legacy admissions and basic fairness: The wrong way to boost students’ college admissions chances
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 2:00:00 AM)

    This time of year, college students throughout the country set foot on campus and begin a journey toward a higher degree, a career and economic opportunity.

    However, a sad reality in college admissions remains: If your parent or parents went to a prestigious university, your chances of attending…

  • [NYDN] Charter a new course: Bail on bad city ballot items
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    When Mayor de Blasio set up a Charter Revision Commission in April to amend the city’s governing document, he did it to counter a dueling commission being set up by the City Council, as well as to improve the electoral process and enhance voter participation.

    Tuesday night, the de Blasio panel…

  • [NYDN] Myanmar’s crimes upon crimes
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    Journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo sought only to reveal to the world horrors endured by Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslim minority, who’ve been driven to exile in Bangladesh by the hundreds of thousands, if they weren’t first massacred in what a United Nations investigation last month declared genocide…

  • [NYDN] ‘Intimidating’ NYPD detective on mayor’s detail wasn’t discriminated against because he’s Russian: city
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    An NYPD detective on the mayor’s security detail who said he was deemed “too intimidating” because of his Russian heritage was merely complaining about “petty slights and trivial inconveniences,” the city argues in new papers seeking to dismiss his case.

    Det. Alex Pelepelin sued the city in May,…

  • [NYDN] Upheaval continues in mayor’s security detail; second-in-command transferred out
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    A lieutenant in the mayor’s security detail accused of drunkenly shoving a sergeant at Gracie Mansion has been transferred, the Daily News has learned.

    Lt. Karl Pfeffer was comfortably ensconced as the executive officer of the high-profile Executive Protection Unit until last week when the Daily…

  • [NYDN] Black NYPD detective on Mayor de Blasio’s security detail files $10 million discrimination suit
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    A black detective on Mayor de Blasio’s security detail says he was given demeaning duties like standing guard outside of Gracie Mansion for 17 hours in freezing weather while his white counterparts received more desirable assignments and promotions.

    Det. Erin Fitchett’s lawsuit, which will be filed…

  • [NYDN] EXCLUSIVE: Teachout rejects Wall Street donations, but accepts money from financial sector individuals
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    ALBANY – State Attorney General wannabe Zephyr Teachout has touted that she does not take corporate contributions — but that has not stopped her from taking money from individuals in the financial sector.

    In fact, $174,210, or more than 11.5%, of the money she raised for her attorney general run…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on horse carriages, Nike and farebeaters
    (Thursday, September 06, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Keep the horses and jobs trotting

    Chattahoochee Hills, Ga.: Every business owner in New York City, regardless of how they personally feel about horses, should be vehemently protesting the de Blasio administration’s blatant end run around the failed legislation to ban the horse carriage industry.

  • [NYDN] Feds: Immigrant shot, injured after throwing rocks at Border Patrol agents
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 11:30:00 PM)

    DEL RIO, Texas — Authorities say a Border Patrol agent has shot and injured a Honduran man who allegedly threw rocks at agents as they tried to arrest him after he had illegally entered the U.S.

    Federal prosecutors said Wednesday that Leivin Pineda is in federal custody after being treated at a…

  • [NYDN] Sicko who left child sex cartoons at library sentenced to 10 years in prison
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 11:15:00 PM)

    KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A Kansas City man who left child sex cartoons on a public library’s printer has been sentenced to 10 years and one month in prison.

    Federal prosecutors say 63-year-old David Buie was sentenced Tuesday for possessing obscene images of the sexual abuse of children. After serving…

  • [NYDN] School plans to fire teacher who was allegedly drunk, passed out in classroom
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 10:55:00 PM)

    FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — A Broward County, Fla., teacher faces firing after school district officials say they caught him at work drunk and passed out.

    Administrators at Everglades High in Miramar say a faculty member alerted them on Jan. 29 that math teacher Curtis Wiles, 40, appeared to be under…

  • [NYDN] 14-year-old charged for shooting teen near Denver school
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 10:35:00 PM)

    DENVER — Prosecutors say they have charged a 14-year-old boy in a shooting that critically injured another teenage boy outside of a Denver middle school.

    Denver District Attorney Beth McCann’s office says the boy was formally charged Tuesday with criminal attempt to commit murder in the first degree,…

  • [NYDN] Freight train severs elderly woman’s foot after she wanders disoriented into Brooklyn tunnel
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 10:30:00 PM)

    A freight train severed an elderly woman’s foot after she wandered into a tunnel in the Brooklyn Army Terminal Wednesday night, police said.

    The woman, 80, who suffers from an early stage of dementia, became disoriented and entered a tunnel at 2nd Ave. and 66th St. at about 9:30 p.m., an NYPD spokesman…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Well, it’s clear Luis Severino and Gary Sanchez shouldn’t start a potential wild card game against A’s following awful loss
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 10:30:00 PM)

    OAKLAND — I guess we know who should not be starting a potential American League wild card game against the A’s, or maybe we found out who should not be catching it.

    Yankees ace Luis Severino, who has struggled in the second half of the season, was chased early Wednesday night — with a lot of help…

  • [NYDN] Novak Djokovic outlasts John Millman in miserable US Open heat that caused bizarre break
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 9:45:00 PM)

    Succeeding where his longtime rival Roger Federer had failed, Novak Djokovic slayed giant-killer John Millman, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, in a U.S. Open quarterfinal match amid humid conditions Wednesday night.

    “I was struggling, he was struggling, we were changing a lot of shirts and we were just trying to…

  • [NYDN] David Wright set to take another step in Mets rehab
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 9:25:00 PM)

    For once, a meaningful Mets game in September at Citi Field.

    David Wright’s next step in rehab from multiple back, neck and shoulder surgeries will include a workout Friday and a simulation game at Citi Field on Saturday, manager Mickey Callaway told reporters after the Mets 7-3 win over the Dodgers.

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — September 6, 2018
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for September 6, 2018

    Practicality reigns supreme now that cerebral Mercury buzzes in analytical Virgo, forming a Grand Earth Trine with ingenious Uranus and karmic Saturn. The stabilizing influence of this configuration is exact tomorrow morning, but it…

  • [NYDN] Tip leads cops to parolee accused of slashing Brooklyn hospital worker’s face
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 8:50:00 PM)

    A parolee with a history of robbery and assault randomly sliced open a Brooklyn hospital technician’s face as she left work last month, cops said Wednesday.

    Police arrested Kurt Murray, 25, on Wednesday, accusing him of slashing Brookdale University Hospital worker Marie Anite Jean Pierre as she…

  • [NYDN] Madison Keys leans on experience to advance to US Open semifinal
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 8:00:00 PM)

    After her first major final in 2017 when she won only three games, Madison Keys is showing at this year’s U.S. Open that experience is her best teacher.

    “I’ve had some big moments before and was probably putting too much pressure on myself, so I’m just learning from those experiences, having a…

  • [NYDN] Zack Wheeler stellar again as Mets take down Dodgers
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 7:50:00 PM)

    LOS ANGELES — Despite a chest contusion that necessitated a postgame X-ray and CT scan, New York Mets starter Zack Wheeler was not about to call it a day after a 91-mph comebacker hit him square in the midsection.

    Wheeler gave up a two-run home run to Max Muncy three pitches after he was hit by…

  • [NYDN] Manhattan gallery owner Mary Boone must pay IRS $3M after pleading guilty to filing false tax returns
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 7:40:00 PM)

    A prominent Manhattan gallery owner who was sued by Alec Baldwin in 2016 pleaded guilty Wednesday to lying on her federal tax returns.

    Mary Boone falsely claimed about $1.6 million in personal expenses — including the $800,000 she spent to remodel her Manhattan apartment — as business expenses…

  • [NYDN] Ackert: Sure, getting Didi Gregorius and Aaron Judge back in lineup soon is pivotal. But they need to produce, too
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 7:25:00 PM)

    OAKLAND — Didi Gregorius was on the field early Wednesday afternoon, moving smoothly, taking ground balls.

    The shortstop may be back for Friday’s series opener in Seattle, as Yankee manager Aaron Boone had indicated.

    Shortly after that, Aaron Judge walked out from the outfield batting cages where…

  • [NYDN] Yankees Clint Frazier unlikely to return this season; MLB celebrates Roberto Clemente day
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 7:00:00 PM)

    OAKLAND — Clint Frazier is heading back to Tampa, still trying to get past the post-concussion syndrome symptoms that have plagued him all season.

    The Yankees’ top outfield prospect had been progressing through his most recent rehab stint, but once he was nearing a return to minor league games,…

  • [NYDN] Le’Veon Bell’s Steelers teammates aren’t happy
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 6:45:00 PM)

    PITTSBURGH — Le’Veon Bell’s teammates spent the offseason and all of training camp brushing off his absence, confident in their belief that the Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro running back would eventually let the business side of things play out, sign his franchise tender and be at work when things…

  • [NYDN] Boston cop’s son sentenced to 20 years as committed ISIS soldier
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 6:45:00 PM)

    The 26-year-old son of a veteran police officer — who oversaw the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing investigation — will spend the next 20 years behind bars for his involvement as a “committed soldier” for ISIS after his dad tipped off authorities.

    Alexander Ciccolo, also known as Ali Al Amriki, copped…

  • [NYPost] Enes Kanter begins Kevin Durant’s Knicks recruitment
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 11:04:16 AM)

    When Warriors superstar Kevin Durant played Oklahoma City for the first time early in the 2016-17 season, then-Thunder center Enes Kanter was the only former teammate to give Durant beef — trash-talking him from the bench. Now Kanter hopes Durant, a free agent in 2019, will forget the incident. The Knicks center will do everything…

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks’ Enes Kanter says he will ‘try to recruit’ Kevin Durant
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 9:46:46 PM)

    Knicks C Enes Kanter has trash-talked Kevin Durant, but he also has been his teammate — and now he hopes they can team up again in New York next year.

  • [SNY Knicks] Kevin Knox knows to how many wins Knicks need to make playoffs
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 12:50:21 PM)

    Knicks rookie Kevin Knox mentioned earlier this offseason that he believes his new team has the potential to make the playoffs this year. And that mindset hasn’t wavered.

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks’ Enes Kanter says he will ‘try to recruit’ Kevin Durant
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 9:46:46 PM)

    Knicks C Enes Kanter has trash-talked Kevin Durant, but he also has been his teammate — and now he hopes they can team up again in New York next year.

  • [NY Newsday] Kevin Knox knows to how many wins Knicks need to make playoffs
    (Wednesday, September 05, 2018 12:50:21 PM)

    Knicks rookie Kevin Knox mentioned earlier this offseason that he believes his new team has the potential to make the playoffs this year. And that mindset hasn’t wavered.

  • 29 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.09.06)”

    Actually, it’s like watching someone produce a specific way for three months and thinking that it’s reasonable to be cautiously optimistic that he might be able to reach the height he already reached for another three months.

    Oh, like Porzingis?

    I’m surely cautiously optimistic about Burke, for me he should start and play a lot of minutes without a doubt. It’s just quite a big jump from that to “he’ll be worth a 1st round pick from a playoff contender by the trade deadline”. Isaiah Thomas was playing probably better than what Burke showed for like 4 years and he got traded for nothing to the Suns, then finally traded for a super low first to the Celtics. Teams seem to be VERY conscious of their assets lately in the NBA.

    As Bruno said, it’s one thing to be optimistic. It’s another thing to think that another 3 months of above-average play is going to net a 1st rounder when the guy is in a contract year with no indication of what his market value will actually be.

    The evidence that NOP trades away all of their picks is encouraging, but it’s still all fantasy. Sweet, sweet fantasy, baby — when I close my eyes, Dolan comes back to save me. Oh ooh whoaaaa ohhhhh.

    the odds of us getting a 1 for burke are about the same as Kanter successfully recruiting Kevin Durant (does he realize if Durant is here, he won’t be)?

    I wonder if, when the Warriors dominance will eventually be over, franchises are gonna be a little less conscious. I mean, right now pretty much every franchise realizes that they have no shot at winning a title, so the only ones who still swing for the fences are the one with generational talents and small markets (NOP, maybe MIN?) and the one who have awful and/or lame duck GMs (last year DET, who knows about PHX). I think that when this Warriors core is broken by free agency or pure old age there will be a much different market.

    The sample size for Burke’s improved production is not just what we saw in the NBA last year. He got called up to the NBA because he was tearing up the G League by shooting way better than he had ever shot early in his NBA career. Of course I’m one of the people that argues that “who and how you are defended” has an impact on your stats. So all else being equal, shooting stats from the G League will not translate perfectly at the NBA level. But the point remains that there was already a reason to strongly suspect that he had a made a leap in his game before he was even called up. The fact that he maintained better play in the NBA added weight to what fans already suspected.

    Does that mean it’s 100% he will continue to play at that level or better?

    Of course not.

    But the chances are darn good that he’s a better player now than he was in prior NBA years. That would translate into a terrific backup PG even if his shooting slips a little. I have no idea why anyone would want to trade a solid young backup PG if we can get him back at a fair price. We are going to need one eventually.

    I have no idea why anyone would want to trade a solid young backup PG if we can get him back at a fair price.

    What’s a fair price? And is it smart to sign guys to long-term deals when the core of the team produces, at best, 25 wins?

    @5

    I’m pretty sure it makes a big difference, yes. The only teams making moves are the ones who are desperate for any reason, either terrible front office situations with GMs trying to save their own skins or teams about to lose their most talented players if they don’t improve.

    Even New Orleans had a pretty mild offseason, they signed Payton and Randle to pretty tame contracts and didn’t go crazy once Boogie left. Detroit is also done fucking around now that SVG finally got canned.

    The time to build assets and try to get something for them has come and gone and the Knicks did not take advantage of it. Valuable starters, which is what I think Burke’s ideal scenario is, don’t move the needle against the Warriors, Rockets and whatever team LeBron assembles next year.

    I just don’t want this team to make any moves outside of dumping Courtney Lee and testing the waters on moving THJ. I feel like I’ve said this a million times but this is the one season where there’s a clear, obvious plan to follow that should be really easy to execute. Play young dudes, lose games because they’re young, see what they are, get Porzingis back and see how he plays, end the year with a good pick and then decide what to do with Porzingis. They have to actually try to fuck this up.

    What’s a fair price? And is it smart to sign guys to long-term deals when the core of the team produces, at best, 25 wins?

    1. We’ll know what the fair price is at the end of the season.

    2. First, you have to get past the idea that the Knicks are gong to tank for the next 8 years trying to duplicate the 76er strategy. That’s never going to happen again. The Knicks are building a team of young players that’s going compete this year and try to improve every year after this.

    Our core team is KP, Knox, Frank, Robinson, Hardaway, the 2019 draft pick, a max player in free agency next year, and from among the rest of the young players, whoever demonstrates the kind of improvement that justifies keeping them as long as they fill a need and the price is fair.

    That means players like Mudiay, Burke, Kanter, Vonleh, Hezonja, Dotson, Trier, and Kornet are all young enough to part of the team long term. They are all fighting for a spot.

    Assuming Frank wins the starting PG slot (and plays off the ball in some lineups), we are going to need a back PG. Mudiay and Burke are competing for that spot (Frank too if he disappoints). If any of them looks like a solid backup PG long term, you sign him as long as the deal is fair. If he’s too good/expensive to keep as the backup but not the starter you really want long term, then you try to trade him. When the time comes to make decision on Burke, it should be based on how he plays this year and the price and not on the fact that we are still years away from the goal.

    As long as contracts are fair, we can always reshuffle the deck or roll up in the future. But this team is trying to get better.

    When the time comes to make decision on Burke, it should be based on how he plays this year and the price and not on the fact that we are still years away from the goal.

    Then we agree on the “fact” that the team is years away from contending and shouldn’t push any chips in on veterans who will take up significant cap space to lead the team to 35 wins.

    Also, it will never cease to amaze me that Detroit paid Boban $21M to play a total of 464 minutes in their uniform, despite no major injuries. I know the Van Gundys are reputed as basketball savants, but you’ve got to be a fucking moron to “steal” him from a non-conference opponent just to sit him on the bench despite being the most productive per-minute scorer in the shot clock era.

    Maybe he’s “unplayable” against small-ball lineups but he’s also unguardable by small-ball lineups. Free Boban.

    Then we agree on the “fact” that the team is years away from contending and shouldn’t push any chips in on veterans who will take up significant cap space to lead the team to 35 wins.

    It depends on the definition of veteran. But other than that, we are not tanking.

    I think every contract that is attractive is an asset no matter how old the guy is. If other teams want my player at “x” price for “y” years, I’m happy to have him at that price too. I can always trade him later for a better fit. Generally though, since we are young and years away, we should only be trying to sign players long term when they are young enough to be highly productive for the duration of their contract.

    Trey Burke is only 25 years old. I don’t care if we are going to win 10 or 55 games next year. If Trey Burke proves to be a highly productive player this year and we can get him on a good deal given the role he’s going to have long term, we should sign him. He figures to be productive for the duration of any long term contract and would generally be expected to continue being an excellent backup by the time we are peaking too. If we can do better later, we can trade him later.

    “2. First, you have to get past the idea that the Knicks are gong to tank for the next 8 years trying to duplicate the 76er strategy. That’s never going to happen again. The Knicks are building a team of young players that’s going compete this year and try to improve every year after this”

    You keep saying this in the same condescending way and I still don’t understand why. People wanting the team to tank does not mean anyone expects them to tank. We even talked about accidentanking because it’s the only damn way this team is tanking at all. Nobody needs to “get past this”, we all understand what’s happening, some people are just unhappy that the team has never managed to get top tier young talent from the draft because of meaningless wins. At least the Knicks tanked by accident once in the last 20 years, while your strategy of building slowly by gathering good players and winning trades has happened exactly zero times so far.

    I’m just excited for once that there are actual young players on the team and they might bring us a very high lottery pick just by playing games and developing. I have two fears, one is that the young players might actually suck, and the other is that the Knicks will do what the Knicks always does, which is screw up a situation once more with bad moves.

    Nobody is calling for a Hinkie solution for this team, everyone agrees that letting the young players play this season and seeing what happens is he way to go. I would just rather we come out of this year with a top prospect like Williamson and Barrett than with another 9th pick that we have to talk ourselves into for months.

    You keep saying this in the same condescending way and I still don’t understand why. People wanting the team to tank does not mean anyone expects them to tank.

    I don’t mean for it to come out as condescending, but I don’t see the point of having endless conversations on a strategy that has already been rejected by current management.

    We are trying to get better both short and long term by stockpiling young players, trying to develop some young players that have disappointed other teams relative to expectations, making draft picks, and remaining flexible with our cap space.

    Given that fact, what can we do to improve now that also makes sense long term?

    But the Hinkie / Ainge gameplans just don’t exist anymore. It’s nearly impossible to stockpile picks with teams now valuing them.

    a strategy that has already been rejected by current management

    If that’s the case, the franchise is going to continue the trend of mid-lottery picks on a hamster wheel of mediocrity. Winning trades means relying on the stupidity of other FOs to make bad decisions. Signing players for below-market value means assuming that other FOs are too dumb to see value and have the requisite space to sign valuable players. Having a top-3 pick practically ensures that you’ll have access to the best ball handler, wing or big in that draft. Having the #1 overall pick means that you make your own destiny.

    I don’t want to bank on the prospect that other teams will fail to spot Burke’s talent, should he have a solid year. That would be like me hanging a piece in a chess game to make an aggressive attack, praying that my opponent doesn’t spot it. It’s better to not rely on others’ errors.

    trying to develop some young players that have disappointed other teams relative to expectations

    This is the part of your strategy that I disagree with the most. Anthony Bennett, for example, wasn’t just a bad #1 overall pick — he was a bad basketball player, period. Expectations have nothing to do with his actual value on the floor once you uncouple his name from his draft position. And yes, there was a significant opportunity cost to picking him at #1, especially with guys like Giannis, Porter, Gobert, Adams and Oladipo behind him, but that’s not why Cleveland got rid of him. They got rid of him because he was terrible, just like Mudiay, Wroten, Derrick Rose, Beasley, Bargnani, and now Hezonja.

    Kenyon Martin is a great example of a guy who did not live up to #1 overall pick expectations, but was solid enough to be a starter for a couple of Finals teams and then some good Nuggets teams. His draft position stopped mattering once he stepped onto the court.

    This is the part of your strategy that I disagree with the most. Anthony Bennett, for example, wasn’t just a bad #1 overall pick — he was a bad basketball player, period.

    1. You want to build long term primarily via draft and to tank to get better picks. I have no argument with that preference. I simply think it’s also possible to get to the promised land with a combination of trades, free agents, and draft picks.

    2. I didn’t say I thought this was a particularly good strategy. I was simply stating what I think this management team is doing.

    I have absolutely no data on this strategy. Intuitively, I think if you make a checklist of skills and natural talents and focus on players whose shortcomings are the kinds of things that historically can be improved upon and taught, you might be able to find some gems.

    I think Perry has been trying to find players that have some combination of athleticism, length, handle, and ability to create their own shot. He’s looking for physical talents. If the weakness is shooting, defense, or decision making, he’s taking a chance that those things can be taught or improved upon with hard work. If you are not athletic, long, quick, etc… he can’t make you a great athlete or longer. So he’s not interested.

    We’ll see if the seeds grow into flowers or weeds.

    Bruno, yes teams are very conscious of assets now, but I think that means late first round picks are overvalued in trades. The example of Demps was cited as a negative example, but he actually has developed a team that is probably regularly in the Western Conference playoffs. That’s not a horrible result, and many GMs would take that if they could get it.

    I mean, the Pelicans also have a perennial MVP candidate who has been twice to the playoffs in six years, all of them with Demps at the helm.

    I don’t disagree he made some good deals here and there, I like Mirotic and Randle in particular, but the Cousins deal was a blunder (they gave up Hield, who I like quite a bit and the 10th pick that eventually became Zach Collins, still on the fence), his free agent signings were pretty terrible (Solomon Hill, Etwaun Moore, Asik, Ajinca) and I would say they became a good team more or less despite Demps instead of because of him.

    Would they be a better team now if they kept all of their picks, meaning they would have Hield, Collins, Chandler Hutchison and no Mirotic? I would probably say it’s a wash, they would be younger and more flexible but Mirotic’s production would be missed.

    So even with not good returns yet from a 6th, 10th and 22nd pick, they probably amount to about as much skill as what he eventually got for trading those picks for Cousins and Mirotic, and now Mirotic is expiring and will need to get paid to be kept, while all the others would be under contract for years still.

    I don’t know if picks are being overvalued, but the fact that they bring a player that’s guaranteed for 4 years on a very good contract cannot be ignored. Maybe you’re right, as the marginal value of the low first rounders is probably low, but I would still rather keep the picks unless they bring a very good estabilished player on a good contract.

    The example of Demps was cited as a negative example, but he actually has developed a team that is probably regularly in the Western Conference playoffs. That’s not a horrible result, and many GMs would take that if they could get it.

    Nah, I gotta break this one down.

    1) Despite the half-assed tank in 2011-12, the Hornets managed to jump 3 slots, winning the draft lottery with a 13.7% chance to do so. They took Anthony Davis, who had the following accolades:

    NCAA Champion
    All-Tournament Team
    Tourney MOP
    All-Region
    Consensus All-American
    Wooden Award
    Rupp Trophy
    SEC POY
    Naismith Award
    #1 in NCAA in Win Shares
    #1 in BPM
    #1 in WS40
    #1 in ORtg

    He was the easiest #1 overall pick since LeBron. Hands down. There is no draft big board that had him falling past #1. If Demps doesn’t make this pick, there’s a good chance that he’s fired on the spot and submitted for a CAT scan for brain tumors or other neurological irregularities.

    2) In the years since Davis was drafted, the Pelicans have never had an SRS above 1.48, despite having a player who has made 3 All-NBA teams, 3 All-Defensive teams, and has landed on the top-10 list for WS/BPM/VORP multiple times. And I should remind you that he began his career as a 19 year old. He just turned 25, so it’s very possible that the next two years are his best yet. Despite having a burgeoning MVP candidate, the Pels have made the playoffs just twice, with one playoff series win.

    3) Demps inherited Chris Paul, whom he traded for Aminu, Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman. Read that one again, because it’s true.

    4) It gets worse from there: Demps was the engineer behind the nixed Chris Paul LAL trade, which would have sent Pau Gasol, still a very good player, to HOU, while taking back Goran Dragic (good but not great), Luis Scola (lol), Kevin Martin (incredibly never a Knick) and Lamar Odom, best known as a living, breathing Kardashian accessory.

    Well, you did expand a lot on the fact that Anthony Davis’ existence is the sole reason for Demps still having his job, so that was nice.

    I don’t fault Demps so much on the CP3 trade as we’ll probably never know how much the league forced the situation, but just the fact that the Clippers probably got a better haul for him 6 years later (and him being 6 years older) tells us everything we need to know on the case to evaluate the trade for the Pelicans.

    Specially on a small market that gets no chance at free agency, just whiffing on picks and trading them away is so bad. Since 2012, the Davis draft, the Pelicans have drafted exactly one starting caliber player (Buddy Hield), including trading Noel for Holiday just to overpay the hell out of him later.

    Basketball is not mysterious. Either you can play or you can’t. Burke can ball with the best of them. He always could but lacked focus in Utah and played behind Wall in Washington. In ~ 30 games, you couldn’t find any glaring holes offensively in his game. He didn’t turn it over; Assisted at a high clip by penetrating and getting to the paint at will; got to foul line; set the offense by getting a bunch of hockey assist too; shot it well constitently at the rim, elbow, long twos, threes, off dribble going left, right & step back; got out on the break and threw alley ups; mentally strong when Kemba went at him; All these skills are developed via a lifetime of work & cannot just show up for 30 games and go way. It’s common sense.

    Jowles,, you argued against points I didn’t make. You talked a lot about how the Pelicans had a number 4 pick and jumped to number 1 because of the lottery. But I agree, the top first round picks very valuable. I specifically said late first round picks were overvalued (i.e. non lottery picks) because I agree a top pick is very valuable. You didn’t comment on that point at all.

    I don’t agree that because the Pelicans have Anthony Davis but didn’t make the playoffs every year, the GM necessarily did a bad job. Most teams with one superstar only and blah stuff around him have trouble making the playoffs, so the fact that Demps didn’t always make the playoffs is not proof he’s a horrible GM. I actually don’t think he’s a great GM at all. Clearly, the CP3 trade wasn’t a shining moment of his. But his trading of late first round picks is getting him reasonable value because such picks are overvalued in the market today. That’s the point I was making.

    Bruno, you commented that the Cousins deal was a blunder, but part of that is hindsight because he had a severe injury and they let him go. If you trade for a good player and then he gets injured like that of course you can say the trade was a mistake, but that’s not really a fair grade for the trade. Anyone can get injured.

    But his trading of late first round picks is getting him reasonable value because such picks are overvalued in the market today.

    I think there’s a recency bias going on, owing to their thorough dismantling of the Blazers just a few months ago. The Holiday trade was awful and only now he’s finally improving, to the tune of $28M a year through his early thirties. The Asik trade was awful. The Cousins trade wasn’t even good, and now he’s gone, and for essentially 2 1st round picks. The Paul trade was awful (2x 2nd rounders and scrubs/injured players). Mirotic is only under contract for another year, and despite his good play, who knows what that pick will end up being.

    I just don’t see anything except signing below-average players to play around Anthony Davis, and giving up cheap young players for veterans making $10M+.

    Well, I agree it looks worse now that Cousins is gone, but for all the reports we’ve had the Pelicans were interested in re-signing him and Stein reported they even offered him a 2 year 40 million deal. Cousins didn’t stay not so much because of the injury, but because he wanted to go to a better situation, and he took at least a 15 million paycut to do so.

    I guess things could have been different if he was healthy and got a max offer from New Orleans, but then they would be paying almost two maxes to Cousins + Holiday, which… yikes.

    Cousins not wanting to re-sign was a risk that was involved on the trade when it was made, and it’s New Orleans we’re talking about, they just don’t sign stars. I’m not willing to cut Demps some slack because at the moment of the trade people were already doubting Boogie would eventually re-sign there.

    I just disagree with you that teams with superstars the caliber of Davis struggle often to put teams around them. We’re talking about a legitimate mega star, a top 5 talent, an unstoppable two way player who might end his career with multiple MVPs and was crazy good from his 2nd year on. Even Dallas, where Dirk was the solo superstar for such a long time, made the playoffs every year of his prime on very, very rough western conferences. I would agree with you if they missed the playoffs like twice when Davis had some injuries, but there’s no excuse for missing it so many times. Hell, even New Orleans themselves only missed the playoffs once in 4 seasons with Chris Paul once he made the leap, and that was when he played only 45 games.

    It’s a reasonable argument that Davis might be able to carry a team by himself. LeBron clearly can. Melo clearly couldn’t and can’t. He is somewhere in between. So it’s a question of our individual assessments of Davis.

    I remember the Cousins situation differently. New Orleans did offer him an extension, but he wanted to test the market, so he didn’t take it. Then, when the market was dry, New Orleans no longer had the offer on the table, so he had to take the Warriors offer. So New Orleans could have kept him if they wanted to.

    But anyway, that it kind of irrelevant to the core of my argument. New Orleans traded Hield, who was a recent first round pick, a first round pick and Evans and Galloway, neither of which were of much use to the Kings. Compare that to Mozgov, where two first round picks got a somewhat serviceable center. Here, two first round picks, one of whom was definitely not a star (Hield) got the Pelicans Cousins. There is no comparison in the value received for two picks between the two trades. So I say, first round picks are over valued now.

    Part of the reason for the overvaluing of first rounders was the old CBA. In it, the cap went up something like 40% while the salaries for first round picks didn’t change at all. So they became incredibly cheap relative to their potential. Teams figured this out and kept their picks at almost all costs. But the new CBA fixes that. What is more, players are being drafted younger and the maximum length of the first contract is shorter than it used to be. So now you can draft a guy and sign him to a follow on contract and still not know how good he will be. The Knicks are sort in that position with Porzingis. He’s still young and it’s hard to say if he will keep improving, even without the injury. So if one can get some players that are still developing using late first round picks or get stars like Cousins, you could get very good value for your first round

    So I say, first round picks are over valued now.

    I agree with this assessment.

    The way I value them may not be very precise, but I look at the pick number and try to gauge what kind of player you typically get in that range “on average”.

    Previously one could argue that getting a similar quality player on a rookie deal was a much better value. That’s probably not true anymore. Now, teams are drafting teenagers. You may have that kid on the cheap for a few years, but by the time he actually reaches the productivity level you are projecting, you have to pay him. You may even have to pay him before you know. So I don’t see those rookie deals as such big bargains anymore.

    On the flip side, we all know there’s more volatility in making draft picks. You could get a great player at #9 and you could get a bust at #1. So if you are desperate team trying to hit a home run because no stars will come to your city, you are probably better off swinging for the fences in the draft hoping for luck.

    Previously one could argue that getting a similar quality player on a rookie deal was a much better value. That’s probably not true anymore. Now, teams are drafting teenagers.

    There is no rule in place that says teams must draft teenagers, or draft “raw athletes,” or draft “projects.” There’s a lot of data to suggest that teams are selecting younger players more often, but that’s a systemic failure, not a value problem in the draft slots themselves. It stems from the “common sense” idea that you can mold a younger player as you wish, which, given the failure rate of draft picks in the NBA, seems patently untrue and therefore a tenuous long-term strategy.

    If anything, late-round picks would become more valuable in the hands of someone who’s drafting for current production out of a 22-year-old instead of a 19-year-old’s future upside. If I can bank on 80% of teams selecting young “upside” players instead of NBA-ready older players, give me the #20-30 pick so I can snatch up the upperclassmen who will show me who they are by the time I’m ready to open the checkbook.

    That said, I think the early 2nd-round picks are the most valuable because they provide greater flexibility for team options in years 3 and 4, in addition to an often lower starting salary. The risk there is that the team will go cheap with a 2-year deal, accidentally find a star (like Whiteside before he decided to stop trying) and have to pay him $25M a year when they could have had him for $1.5M AAV over four.

    I suspect that Brandon Ingram is going to make $200M+ in his career, and he may never be better than sophomore-year Giannis. If that’s the case, we’re not going to sit here decrying the value of the #2 pick. We’re going to impugn the development and asset strategies they used to justify their decisions.

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