[NYTimes] The N.B.A. Dunk Contest Has the History. The 3-Point Contest Has the Stars. (Friday, February 16, 2018 11:12:49 PM)
The 3-point shot has increasingly become the signature play of the N.B.A. So why shouldn’t it resonate at the league’s All-Star weekend?
[NYTimes] Don Carter, 84, Who Brought the N.B.A. to Dallas, Is Dead (Friday, February 16, 2018 8:57:23 PM)
Mr. Carter and a partner founded the Mavericks in 1980 and built the team into a model franchise that quickly became a contender.
[NYTimes] Laura Ingraham’s Comments on LeBron James Draw Criticism From Dwyane Wade (Saturday, February 17, 2018 4:33:49 AM)
The N.B.A. star was reacting to the Fox News host’s mocking comments toward his former teammate, LeBron James.
[NYDN] Donovan Mitchell has changed his game since AAU days in NYC (Friday, February 16, 2018 8:50:57 PM)
The point guard legends of NYC – the Stephon Marbury’s and the Kenny Anderson’s – were all better than Donovan Mitchell in high school.
[NYDN] Smith Jr.: Knicks were in ‘funky’ situation ahead of draft (Friday, February 16, 2018 6:21:18 PM)
Smith Jr. claimed the Knicks reneged on an agreement during their predraft meeting and that’s why he declined to work out for Jackson.
[SNY Knicks] Frank Ntilikina helps Team World win NBA Rising Stars Challenge (Friday, February 16, 2018 10:50:59 PM)
Knicks rookie PG Frank Ntilikina showcased his skills for Team World during the NBA Rising Stars Challenge at All-Star weekend on Friday.
[SNY Knicks] Charles Barkley tells Knicks fans to be more patient in rebuild (Friday, February 16, 2018 9:40:55 PM)
Hall of Famer and current TNT analyst Charles Barkley told New York not to give up on the Knicks just yet.
[SNY Knicks] Five reasons to keep watching the Knicks this season (Friday, February 16, 2018 3:25:23 PM)
Why should we even be watching the Knicks the rest of the season?
(Saturday, February 17, 2018 1:32:20 AM)
Knicks rookie point guard Frank Ntilikina grew up in France, after his mother and two brothers had escaped the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.
(Friday, February 16, 2018 10:30:38 PM)
LOS ANGELES — This is going to be hard for some Knicks fans to hear.
(Friday, February 16, 2018 7:17:05 PM)
LOS ANGELES — There’s a possibility rookie point guard Frank Ntilikina will go from the no-defense Rising Stars game Friday at Staples Center straight into the Knicks’ starting lineup. The 19-year-old Frenchman, who hasn’t yet made a start, is hopeful. After the Knicks blew a 27-point lead to the Wizards on Wednesday, coach Jeff Hornacek…
(Friday, February 16, 2018 7:25:25 AM)
LOS ANGELES — Charles Barkley won’t kick the Knicks when they’re down. The legendary TNT mouthpiece believes “you people in New York’’ need more patience with Kristaps Porzingis as well as with the club’s future, saying the franchise is building something sturdy. Barkley even thinks Porzingis’ catastrophic ACL tear that jeopardizes next season, too, could…
(Friday, February 16, 2018 6:58:57 AM)
The Warriors and Rockets look poised to stage an epic battle for the best record in the NBA. It looks like six teams in the Western Conference will battle for the final four playoff spots. But let’s be honest, the best race in the NBA to watch as the regular season finishes up is the…
43 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.02.17)”
My point about Frank’s scoring in the Rising Stars game from the last thread wasn’t that this particular stat line is important. Obviously. The point was that even in a game where no defense was played and pretty much every other (very young) player scored easily, Frank still failed to cash in. It’s indicative of the fact that he lacks the basic offensive moves (dribble drives, pull up jumpers, etc) to attack even an apathetic defense.
That is worrisome. I’m not saying he’ll suck, so don’t freak out if you’re Team Frank. I’m just saying he’s got a long long way to go on offense. He’s lacking skills that 90% of the league has. That’s troubling.
I don’t know, I came away from that game with a warm fuzziness in me heart seeing Frank playing unselfish basketball and doing effort things even in that contest. He’ll never be a star, but the kid really knows how basketball should be played. Blame it on my euro bias, but I’m happy with him.
I gotta agree with Oakman. There’s a lot to love about Frank, but is lack of aggressiveness on the offensive end shows that he is not comfortable with attacking.
He’s talking about going to France in the summer to work on his game, I hope the Knicks send over a team of development coaches to teach him how to score. He doesn’t have to be a 20 pts a night guy, he just needs to be able to take what the defense gives him and attack enough to collapse defenses.
The 1100 minutes Frank has played this season is more than the prior 3 years combined. Think about that. Then there’s the extra practice and travel stress as well.
Basically, the kid has effectively doubled his training volume, year-to-year, over the past 3 seasons. That’s an insane increase in training volume for a 19 year-old. Inspite of that, that he even can make positive plays at this point, that he even has had a positive +/-, speaks volumes of what he’s capable of.
Assuming he finishes the year without a major injury (fingers crossed) and gets time to rest and recover, based on overloading-recovery training principles, he’s going to come back physically stronger. Then you’ll see a much better and more confident player.
The biggest improvements in his game will come this offseason when, in addition to getting stronger, he’ll work on his handle, shooting, and go-to moves. I’m just hoping that, in his rush to improve, that he permits himself the opportunity to recover too.
I’m curious to see how this will turn out in October.
List of 15-5-5 players this season and I’m not even considering TS% or defense:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_minute&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts_per_mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=15&c2stat=ast_per_mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=5&c3stat=trb_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=5&order_by=ws
Give Frank all the time he need, but let’s lower our expectations a little bit.
I’m on the record as anti-drafting Frank! I didn’t call anyone stupid, but I still think it’s incredibly stupid to try to come to any serious conclusion about him after 1100 teenage minutes. Most teenagers in the NBA are really bad, and repeatedly making the point that Frank is no exception isn’t interesting nor does it prove anyone right or wrong.
BTW, 10 out the 12 on that list are 27-33 years old.
I didn’t see the game, but from the stats and reviews, Fox, Dunn and Smith performed similarly well to Ntilikina and Mitchell performed only slightly better. I don’t see this performance as something to worry about.
See http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22470082/grading-rising-stars-challenge-rosters
Frank was Frank.
4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 6 points in 18 minutes. He’s a triple double threat per 36 minutes on his best nights. He’s done that a couple of times in real games. He’ll probably get a real one next year.
For now he has to improve his shot and finishing ability so he scores efficiently on low volume. If he can fill up the stat sheet elsewhere and defend well, he’ll be a plus player quickly. You don’t have to be a superstar scorer to be a critical part of a great team. If he can add 1-2 things each off season and at least inch forward on others in 4-5 years we’ll have a dynamite player. There’s no reason to be down on him. He already does some things well. It’s on him to come back with a better shot and finishing ability next year so he’s not a liability of offense because of his low volume inefficient scoring.
He’s a triple double threat per 36 minutes on his best nights. He’s done that a couple of times in real games. He’ll probably get a real one next year.
actually he has never done this. in fact he’s only had one game when he was at 10+ reb/36. the closest he came was against the Nets when he went 12.4/8.7/12.4 per 36.
I mean, there’s valid reason to be concerned for Frank’s offensive capabilities but his points in this game is not one of them. Smith Jr scored 7 points, Mitchell scored 7, Fox scored 4.
He still contributed and looked like he belongs, so it’s fine for me. He’ll need time and there’s reason to believe he’s a very hard worker. Let’s freak out next year if he still can’t dribble (if he’s still on the Knicks)
It’s remarkable that our young prospects are plagued by the same irrational impatience that’s normally reserved for teams who expect to win championships.
I can understand why, for example, Yankees fans may be extra demanding on Gleyber Torres next year. What exactly are *we* in a rush for?
Frank may not fully develop until he’s 25 years old. And that’s totally fine. We’ve got a long time until our championship window opens. I hope the front office isn’t stupid about this.
Frank may not fully develop until he’s 25 years old. And that’s totally fine. We’ve got a long time until our championship window opens. I hope the front office isn’t stupid about this.
it’s fine for him but the nba has an economic reality. a good 25 year old player drafted at 19 is often only highly valuable if he is so good that he’s worth more than the 25% max level post rookie-deal (and actually 19 is so young that by 25 the second deal is almost up and the bar is even higher). otherwise a significant percentage of the time he is getting paid at or above his value by then and either only modestly valuable or not valuable. let’s take a guy like beal. he’s taken a leap after four mediocre years on his rookie deal. now he’s a really good player. for argument’s sake let’s say VORP approximates his actual value. That means he’ll produce around 7.5 – 8 wins last year and this year, which is worth around $22-$24 million. he makes around that much and his salary will rise faster than the value of a win over the next two years, so unless he improves he’ll fall a bit short.
sure, it’s a lot better to be the wizards than, say, the knicks. but…the Wiz are only a top 1/3 ish type team with zero shot at true contention and very low cap flexibility to improve. more important, they needed two other guys who maybe rate better than beal (well, not Wall so far this year) just to get stuck at pretty good. there just isn’t much value these days in drafting guys that aren’t good for 4 years unless they peak at awesome as opposed to merely very good. obviously sometimes you will re-sign a guy to an affordable non-max second deal and they will exceed it, but at least as often you will pay them like wiggins and they will hurt you even more.
the sensible draft strategy is unfortunately no longer to go for the highest expected career value. it’s to favor upside or near term impact.
We’ll have a better picture of who Frank Ntilikina is by the end of the season. He’s due for an uptick in minutes and that should give us a better idea of who he is. All the definitiveness is sorta pointless here.
I do think he’ll eventually become the Draymond Green of off-guards. He’ll do everything well without high usage scoring and his scoring efficiency won’t be the best. That’s what I see from him. 11, 7, and 7 per 36 with 2 steals and a bunch of lockdown defense.
I honestly think you need to wait until he’s had an off season to recover, reflect, and improve. In my book, it’ll be next training camp where he needs to look more comfortable and polished
He had a couple of games where at halftime or further in he was on a triple double per 36 pace or close but didn’t finish it out as well. I was hoping he’d get there because people wouldn’t notice his production on more limited minutes. That’s why I briefly changed my name to “Stratomatic says Frank is going to be a triple double threat someday” for a few weeks. It was apparent that with 36 minutes and a little development he’s going to get them every once in awhile.
I would so much rather have a kid who plays D and struggles on O than the other way around. It’s not so much the scoring that worries me, it’s the turnovers. I really think he’s going to be OK.
@17
Totally agree. The guy is already a good defender, and could be truly great when he fills out and matures a bit more. It is nice to see how much (to a fault) he tries to run the offense and get everyone involved. I hope the “sloppy” turnovers are more of a lack of confidence/rigidly sticking with the play issue rather than a BBIQ one.
If there’s one area I’m eager to see immediate improvement on, it would be the turnovers and to see him start hitting more of this shots. I’m not worried at all about the lack of aggressiveness. That’s for next year or the year after. I think it is possible that he’s fatigued at this point and may be the rest of the year.
However, see if he can get his shooting % up a bit. In particular, if he could get his threes to 35% before the end of the year, that would be very encouraging. That’s why I’m fine with him playing a bunch with Mudiay or Burke. Let him be the two and get a bunch of spot up shots. From here out out, let him play the point about 1/3 of the time and the two 2/3 of the time.
@13
This is partly why I’ve been saying people are overrating ping pong balls and tanking.
1. More ping pong balls doesn’t necessarily mean you will get the higher pick.
2. Getting the higher pick doesn’t necessarily get you the better player (and it’s less likely now when they are drafting 19 years instead of 22 year olds like they used to)
3. Even if you are lucky enough to get the higher pick and pick the right players most of the time (which you won’t be), because you are drafting a series of 19 years olds, it could be 10 years before you fully turn it around. The draft picks taken 3-4 years into the process may take another 5-6 years to reach their peak.
4. Even among draft picks, you are paying more for the higher ones. So if you do draft a few busts or semi-busts, you will be overpaying players on your roster for a number of years.
5. And all the while the good ones will be coming up for extensions at higher salaries.
An alternative is to draft players that are 21-22. That way you’ve had more time to evaluate them, they are more ready, and they may fall down the list. But most of the time if a player doesn’t come out at 19 now it’s because he’s deemed to have less upside or hasn’t shown enough. So sure, if you draft a guy like Kuzma and get lucky, for awhile he’s going to look like a ROY candidate. But let’s see where all these rookies are 3-4 years from now and who has made the most progress. I’m betting it’s not Kuzma. I just don’t know who it will be and neither does anyone else.
IMO the correct way to manage a team is approximately the same way a good value investor in the stock market manages a portfolio.
A good value investor is constantly reviewing his portfolio, looking at changing fundamentals, adjusting his valuations, looking at the price of his stocks vs. their estimated value, and trying to prune the bad values, add to the best values, get rid of the mistakes, and keep going.
The one MAJOR difference is basketball players are not businesses. They are human beings.
So as part of the process, you have to treat people (players, agents, and families) with the respect they’ve earned as players through their hard work and dedication, as human beings, and as employees trying to maximize their earnings for themselves and their families. There’s no one path there. You go where the value is.
I only trust the Knicks to draft well at this point. I want the highest lottery odds and the highest pick possible so we can take advantage of that.
List of players with 11, 7, 7 and 2 steals:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_minute&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=mp_per_g_req&c1stat=pts_per_mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=11&c2stat=ast_per_mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=7&c3stat=trb_per_mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=7&c4stat=stl_per_mp&c4comp=gt&c4val=2&order_by=ws
Come on guys! You are expecting HOF stats for Frank.
Very interesting.
I think Frank will come right by being a defensive terror who generates some offense through turnovers and then sprinkles some 3s around the edges. His upside is capped unless he can figure out how to be more dynamic with the ball but he should have a reasonably high floor.
What I find strange about the NBA is the way everything seems to default to paying rhe Max. No one ever gets 60% or 70% of the Mac. I understand the whole system is structured that way, and also that a bunch of guys are worth way more than their max, but I still think NBA salaries should be more granular.
What I find strange about the NBA is the way everything seems to default to paying rhe Max. No one ever gets 60% or 70% of the Mac. I understand the whole system is structured that way, and also that a bunch of guys are worth way more than their max, but I still think NBA salaries should be more granular.
yeah, i think you basically have a combination of two factors here. one that you mentioned is of course that the max was so far below the value of superstars that you have a natural clustering at that level, whereas the granularity should have been between the CBA max and lebronville in an uncapped market. the second is a winner’s curse thing in a particularly inefficient/limited market where only one dumb owner/gm can set the marginal price for a free agent, pushing up auction values.
but it’s starting to look like a combination of the new CBA and maybe a temporary reduction in the marginal stupidity at the bottom might start to change this. and maybe you see more of that granularity you expected. for a while anyway. the stupidity reduction is probably just most of the dumb teams max’ing themselves out during the cap spike and taking themselves temporarily out of the bidding. there are definitely guys who would have been in the conversation for truly horrific max deals in some prior summers who have no shot today, guys like KCP or Nurkic.
TIL being agnostic = being a coward
I hate to use this idea because it’s so cliche, but it really is a prisoner’s dilemma right now. If you’re a team with a guy like Paul George or John Wall coming up for an extension, the sensible thing would obviously be to offer him a 70% or 80% of the max contract, accounting for the fact that he is not a transcendental superstar and you would be paying Lebron money to a guy who’s worth a bit less, but they simply can’t afford to do it.
The fact thay every team can hold 2-3 max contracts on their payroll makes it so that there’ll always be a team available to offer George or Wall the max in this scenario, and the fact that they are regarded as stars means that his agent and them would be angry and offended by the less than max offer and would be gone.
There’s nothing front offices can do, for this guys who are fringe superstars and may end up being worth the max if everything goes well. Where the system is broken is on the next tier of guys, the Kemba Walker / Andrew Wiggins / Joel Embiid sort of player, where his reputation is valued at more than his production or there are questions about durability. This is where a smart front office has the choice of letting the guy walk instead of giving him a max and letting someone else do it.
The Knicks are in a tough spot right now because we still don’t really know if Porzingis is more George / Wall or Walker / Wiggins, but he’s probably getting the money regardless.
@19, how did you get the russians to pay you troll probability theory. here is how your list reads to me.
1. taking the medicine does not guarantee you will get better
2. getting better does not mean you will be happy. you could get better and feel just as shitty (and btw your point here about age holds little water; the average and median age of a top ten pick has been ~between 19-20 for twenty years now).
3. even if you get better and feel better, you might still not feel as good as you’d like to.
4. there is a co-pay
5. once you get better and feel better you’ll have to buy exercise equipment which is $$$.
these are all relevant (and obvious) points. almost everyone knows them. as a result, it’s not adding to the argument whether you should trade courtney lee or KOQ for some medicine even when charlie sheen thinks you are not winning the deal. medicine may be uncertain and costly, but so is your homeopathic alternative to let assets deplete and hope to shadow box your way into a magical winning culture. pointing out the known imperfections of one alternative is only half an analysis.
@27
Agreed with this analogy. It is especially appropriate b/c I believe that Strato has used the word “panacea” on more than one occasion in continuing to argue against “tanking.”
Problem is, I cannot recall anyone on this board ever arguing that tanking is a 100% cure all for a bad team. If I’m wrong, then I’ve missed something. Rather, I and others here believe that it is simply the best chance for the Knicks to build a good team.
Off topic, thanks to ClashFan and Bruno for recommending Deadwood. My girlfriend and I just finished watching the 3rd season. A brilliant series, one of the best ever.
@29
Awesome! Ironically, I watched a few “best of” Youtube video highlights from Deadwood last night! My favorite all-time series.
BTW, it is terrific that your girlfriend got through all 3 seasons with you. My wife never has…I think she hates Swearengen too much…
🙂
Trae young can’t shoot anymore and is pretty immature, but even at his lowest he’s a fantastic playmaker and passer. As bad as he shot today, his team still could have won if he had teammates who could make all of the open shots he created for them.
What’s sad is that as a fan of the kid, for his sake I hope he goes to a functional team with things like “leadership”, “mentoring” and “player development” systems in place.
The knicks will probably be better off with a ready made player like mikal bridges than an uber talented, yet flawed very young man.
Even that’s way too impatient. The kid needs three years minimum.
And there’s nothing wrong with that.
I made this point when Porzingis went down. The assumption is he will automatically get a max. I think it was Brian Cronin who said something along the lines of “he’s definitely getting a max, that’s just the way.”
It makes no sense. Nowadays you get a max second deal just for not being a bust. It needs to change. Especially for Porzingis, who is just nowhere near a max player
@29
Glad you loved it too! ClashFan spreading the word and getting more followers to his Deadwood cause!
I still think The Wire is overall a more complete show, obviously a little unfair to compare them as Deadwood was never given a proper ending, but it’s absolutely one of the best shows I’ve seen.
Haha, none of my “conclusions” are all that serious, you need to lighten up. As to whether what I have to say on this matter is interesting or not, when I find something or someone uninteresing, I just tune it/him/her out. I enjoy discussing Frank’s prospects, especially as game evidence mounts (and 1100 minutes is not a tiny sample.) And it seems like lots of posts followed my comments. But feel free to ignore my posts if they bore you.
And should we limit discussion to things that are objectively provable? That would eliminate about 90% of the posting traffic here.
Didn’t know Kanter’s little bro plays for Xavier. Heard he can’t rebound or score but plays ferocious defense (-:
@34
My plans for eventual world conquest proceed accordingly, albeit slowly…
🙂
@ptmilo 27
I made a rather simple point and laid out why.
1st round picks and trying to build through the draft are currently overvalued.
In the following post I explained my preferred diversified approach. To which I often add, basketball players, agents, and their families are not a line on a spreadsheet. Any strategy that tries to optimize based on numbers only will fail in the real world because it will engender backlash. That’s significant when it comes to how and when to tank.
I have long been willing to move both KOQ and Lee, but KOQ is not a depreciating asset and we will have other opportunities to move Lee. IMO, the risk of delay with Lee is very small.
What’s the risk we won’t be able get the same offer draft night or before the season that we got at the trade deadline?
I think insignificant. I mean what’s the most we are going to lose? A deal management didn’t want?
I weigh that against the possibility of using his salary as part of a value creating deal later, using his expiring contract in a value creating deal later, or simply getting the same or a slightly better offer later. At this stage, I think the better move is to wait than throw him away.
The way more significant risk is that our management may think Kanter is a good player and pay him a lot of money because he gets offensive rebounds and scores efficiently around the paint.
They might miss the fact that he’s one of the worst P&R defenders in the NBA, that players that score off offensive rebounds tend to get overvalued by some metrics, that hanging around the rim looking for orebs tends to create spacing issues for other players, that he has stat stuffing tendencies on the defensive boards, and that my views on him have been verified by multiple on/off models with multiple teams, over multiple years, and with many lineups.
People that think Kanter is good and want to pay him. That’s a team building risk. Waiting a few months to trade Lee, not so much.
Yes, them possibly falling in love with Kanter and extending him for big time would be worse than keeping Lee, but keeping Lee in the hopes that you will somehow get something better for him in the future while he Lee blocks younger players, helps the Knicks win too much and gets older is also bad.
Not being as bad as extending Kanter isn’t saying much.
I think veterans like Lee and Jack have value over and above their basketball contribution. They have value as teachers on and off the court (though it’s not something you want to pay a lot for). Blocking the development of young players is an offsetting problem.
I think benching guys that deserve the minutes opens the door to locker room issues. I don’t think dumping them is a good idea either.
I think we more or less played this hand correctly even though we may not have maximized the development of Frank and Dotson.
We played players based on merit until we were eliminated, got some educational benefit, didn’t dump players or treat them poorly (other than maybe Noah), and now we are moving on to full player development. If Hornacek is still playing Lee/Jack big minutes after the all-star break I’d be surprised and think it was mistake.
For fucks sake Lee has negative value to us. Wtf is with ur infatuation with him strat.
Anybody with a clue would have dumped Lee and O’quinn months ago. This is so frustrating
I fully understand the downsides of keeping him.
I’ll try to put it in terms more in line with the thinking.
I don’t think he has negative value on the market.
Let’s say he’s worth $1 and keeping him longer will cost us 10 cents. That sucks. We can save those 10 cents by dumping him now, but if we dump him for 70 cents we will lose 20 cents by doing the transaction. I’d rather wait until the draft or summer and hope to get 90 cents or more than take 70 cents now.
Of course we don’t know what they were offered. It’s quite possible they were offered $1 and were stupid enough to not take it.