[NYDN] Knicks waste Hardaway’s 37, blow huge lead in loss to Wizards (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 4:54:10 PM)
It was the Knicks’ biggest blown lead since 1991-92, when teams started tracking the stat.
[NYDN] Knicks guard Ron Baker turns focus toward rehabbing shoulder (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 3:20:39 PM)
With his season now over prematurely, Knicks guard Ron Baker is turning his focus to his pending recovery and a healthy return this summer.
[NYDN] Kristaps Porzingis shares Instagram message after surgery (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 9:43:32 AM)
A day after undergoing surgery to repair his torn left ACL, Kristaps Porzingis offered an encouraging message for fans in an Instagram post.
[NYDN] Amar’e Stoudemire joining BIG3 league as Tri-State team captain (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 7:20:19 AM)
Amar’e Stoudemire will be playing another season.
[SNY Knicks] Knicks blow 27-point lead in eighth straight loss, 118-113, to Wizards (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 10:35:16 PM)
Bradley Beal scored 36 points, and the Washington Wizards overcame a 27-point deficit to beat the slumping New York Knicks 118-113 on Wednesday night.
[SNY Knicks] Ron Baker already looking forward to next season (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 8:40:00 PM)
Speaking publicly for the first time since undergoing season-ending surgery on his right shoulder last week, Knicks PG Ron Baker is vowing to come back next season stronger than ever.
[SNY Knicks] Tonight’s game: Knicks vs Wizards, 7:30 p.m. (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 6:00:00 PM)
The New York Knicks, whose offense stalled even before the season-ending injury to Kristaps Porzingis, host the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night with their season in a tailspin.
[SNY Knicks] Kristaps Porzingis believes he’ll be back stronger (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 2:55:22 PM)
Porzingis, who had ACL surgery on Tuesday, is expected to be out at least 10 months.
[SNY Knicks] Mudiay set to make MSG debut before All-Star break (Wednesday, February 14, 2018 10:51:18 AM)
Knicks fans may not have something to cheer about before the All-Star break, especially after losing seven straight games. But, if there is anything to cheer about, it would be welcoming the newest Knick to his first game at the Garden.
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 11:52:17 PM)
It was the Knicks’ biggest blown lead since 1991-92, when they started tracking that stat. This season, they’ve blown leads of 23, 22 and 21 points.
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 7:51:00 PM)
Ron Baker is wearing a cumbersome sling covering his right arm after having surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder and torn labrum. Baker said “pain-wise I’m great,” but he’s having trouble sleeping.
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 7:48:39 PM)
Kristaps Porzingis posted a picture of himself on Twitter and Instagram Wednesday on his way home from the Hospital for Special Surgery, and wrote that he believes he will return a better player.
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 10:32:03 AM)
Former Knicks and Suns player Amar’e Stoudemire has decided to join the Big3 League.
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 11:43:05 PM)
On a recent off-day, the Knicks’ Tim Hardaway Jr., fighting a shooting slump that could have been deemed worthy of funded research by the Center for Disease Control, met with coach Jeff Hornacek and his staff to try to find a cure. When you have shot 24-of-93 (25.8 percent) overall and a dreadful 5-of-44 on…
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 10:36:03 PM)
Karen Johnston looked sheepishly at her watch. “I thought it was a great idea,” she said. “It seemed like a great idea, you know?” Johnston sipped at a margarita and picked at a basket of chips, sitting at a streetside booth inside Lucy’s, a cantina just across the street from Madison Square Garden a few…
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 9:53:27 PM)
The losses keep mounting. And so do the double-doubles for Enes Kanter. The Knicks center finished with 24 points and 14 rebounds Wednesday night — his 28th double-double on the season and ninth in a row. Kanter’s reaction? Big whoop. The Knicks keep losing. When the Knicks blew a 27-point lead in a 118-113 loss…
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 5:10:01 PM)
A train wreck for seven games, Tim Hardaway Jr. scored a torrid 32 points in the first half Wednesday and the Knicks built a 27-point lead. Then the Knicks threw the feel-good night into the sewer. They entered the All-Star break a rotting corpse, extending their losing streak to eight after one of their most…
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 10:55:11 AM)
Kristaps Porzingis left the Hospital of Special Surgery on Wednesday and sent out a note of inspiration on social media. “First of all I want to thank you for all the love and support,” he wrote. “Im attacking my rehab right away. I truly believe that with consistent hard work, patience and positive attitude I’ll…
(Wednesday, February 14, 2018 8:28:12 AM)
If this is déjà vu for point guard Trey Burke, this time he’s not going to let it get him down. Thursday’s deadline trade for Emmanuel Mudiay has so far made Burke an afterthought just one month after joining the Knicks for an audition. That continued Wednesday night as Burke did not play in the…
122 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.02.15)”
“Hornacek reiterated that Ntilikina, Mudiay & Burke will play more after the All-Star Break. On Ntilikina playing 11 min tonight, Hornacek said he liked what Jarrett Jack was doing w/the starters & said Ntilikina isn’t used to defending an SG coming off screens like Jodie Meeks.”
Not sure why we had to wait until the All-Star Break but hopefully he’s true to his word.
Not sure why we have not canned Hornacek yet
Phew! Every game is important at this stage. There’s no margin of error for us here.
I think there’s an excellent chance we could overtake Chicago.
> They play Memphis twice, Brooklyn 3 times, Orlando, Atlanta, Mavs, Knicks
> We play Orlando twice, Charlotte twice, Kings, Mavs, Bulls
We’re our own worst enemy because I doubt the Three Stooges (Mills, Perry, Hornacek) wanna tank. Perry is all about winning culture and keeping the stench out blah blah blah. I have a smidgeon of hope that Mills could force the issue but then I’m not sure he wants a higher pick at the expense of a terrible W-L record in his first year as PBO.
Look at how Hawks do it courtesy of Tommy Beer:
Out for Hawks at DET: Schröder (back), Ilyasova (shoulder), Bazemore (rest)
It would be nice if something like this hit the wire when we play our tanking competitors:
Out for Knicks at ORL: Hardaway (leg), Lee (rest), Walking Bucket (brain)
If Courtney Lee has got the brains I think he does, he should lead a contingent of vets into Perry’s office and tell him in so many words it’s OK to tank. Remember it wasn’t until that happened that Phil shifted gears into tank mode? That would mean limiting the minutes of Lee/KOQ/Hardaway and being generous to Mudiay/Lance/Jack. The Spurs tanked hard when The Admiral suffered an injury and ended up selecting Duncan. The rest is history. NYK: KP goes down, the Knicks play to win, the rest is mystery.
BTW Look at the last table on this BREf page which shows results of simulations of lottery. It looks like there’s a huge difference between 8th and 9th seed but it doesn’t seem right to me.
This is why the only real way to tank is if the coach feels 100% secure or if the FO basically takes it out of the coach’s hands by literally trading away good players.
Hornacek (justifiably) feels like he’s coaching for his job. In his mind I’m sure that means that he needs to win games, but I would argue that he has to show his developmental chops. If I was in the front office, I’d be far more interested in seeing whether he can somehow get Mudiay to make more shots than turnovers and to improve Frank’s offensive game.
meanwhile, the idea that Frank isn’t playing because he’s not used to chasing guys like Meeks around screens feels kinda ridiculous to me. Frank is one of the most agile guys on the team defensively, and if I remember correctly grades out very highly by Synergy on pretty much all play types.
What’s going on with the team now feels a lot like what happened in Phoenix — when things are going well, Hornacek is fine, but when the team hits adversity, he has no idea how to right the ship. He probably is best off as a lead assistant as opposed to the head coach.
Huge loss last night by the way. I’m encouraged/discouraged, whatever the right feeling is.
@1
Not sure which article the quote from Hornacek is from. I had the post-game on this morning and heard it too, except there was more to it than “Ntilikina isn’t used to defending an SG coming off screens like Jodie Meeks”. He continued with something to the effect that “so we put the vets in who were used to that.” He did go on to say something about “we do want to have him on the ball as well” (I took it to mean playing the point, but I’m not so sure in retrospect).
He is either a loyal soldier to a stupid regime or stupid. The one good thing Frank does is deal with screens. Even if not are they so hard up to win that they will throw development to the side. I am fairly certain that there is no substitute for live action. certainly on the Knicks what skilled screen setters will he be going up against in practice to learn.
The second point is that it would seem that after around half a season they have given up on him at the point. Say what you will, but it speaks volumes for their aptitude and commitment to player development. My take is they are just throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks. That’s what is so disspiriting.
Well, he’s scared about Ntilikina defending Jodie freaking Meeks, and yet puts out a lineup with Jack, Hardaway, Lance, Beasley and Kanter for most of the 4th, literally all of then either terrible defenders or maybe sorta active with their arms.
Tanking won’t happen until management forces the issue on Hornacek. If the two main stooges tell him to tank he’ll accept simply because he would do it to keep his job. But I’m pretty sure the mood right now is “we just need one win to break this streak and we’ll be fine!!!”
If you’re the head coach, you’re supposed to talk with the FO on regular basis. Setting the plan going forward is the minimum someone would expect in a meeting with the bosses.
It’s either the FO didn’t buy the tank or worse, there is no communication between then.
I mean, the whole thing is totally idiotic if mills and perry haven’t told Hornacek that he’ll be evaluated solely on the progress shown over the next 20 games by our young guys, they are idiots. If he has been told that, and he’s running out that lineup, he’s both an idiot and insubordinate. Maybe he’s coaching for his next role, I dunno. But with 20 games left and 8 games out of the playoffs, playing expiring vets with no long term future with the team is a dereliction off duty.
I can only hope the fault is with Hornacek not the FO, as he is at least removable…
+1. Burke is by far our best 1 guard at this time so we should limit his minutes. I think he could be a nice rotation piece but he should get plenty of burn next season. Dotson should take minutes from Lee and Hardaway NOT Lance. Kornet should take some of KOQ’s minutes. Hicks and some G leaguer call up should take Walking Bucket’s minutes. Optimal tanking/youth allocation?
1: Mudiay (35+), Frank (8) Burke (5)
2: Lee (15) Dotson (18) Frank (15)
3: Hardaway (20) Lance (20) Dotson (8)
4: Bucket (15) Lance (15) Hicks/G League (18)
5: Kanter (25) KOQ (10) Kornet (13)
Being worried that Trey Burke might actually be too good, and that the strong play of Trey Burke might actually hurt the long-term success of your team is just about the Knicksiest thing ever.
Any combination of Jack/Mudiay/Burke with Kanter at C is a recipe for success. They are so bad at defending the P&R that every team in the league has a chance to overcome a 20 point lead against us.
When I talked about not being this much upset going 12-12 playing a youngish rotation, the keyword was this.
I obviously hope for a super tank. But I definitively gave up hopes on Hornacek last night because he simultaneously:
– Tried to win a useless game
– Did not play Frank enough in a good game for him
– Went with Jack at the 1 and Lance at the 3 to win the friggin game (keeping Beas and Kanter in)
It’s the trifecta of stupidity! I mean, if you really want to win the game (and you shouldn’t) how can you think Lance gives you an edge? And how do you think the youngsters will react to you when you’re giving plenty of burn to the awful Mudiay but not to Frank, Dotson, and the dear departed Willy? Horny is hurting the team.
I want to take back everything negative I ever said about Porzingis on the boards and related to his shot selection. I haven’t changed my view on those things, but watching this team without him makes me think he should get at least a few votes for defensive player of the year. His impact on defense as a rim protector and help defender must be gigantic. It’s not like we had a great defense with him, but without him it’s comically bad. If he ever gets strong enough to man the C position effectively, straightens out his shot selection and becomes an efficient scorer on top it, he’s going to be crazy good even if he’s only getting 7-8 rebounds per game. We’ll figure out a way to get those missing rebounds.
Yes I still think that a Frank-KP (with a good rebounding wing) defense will be a thing of beauty.
KP is borderline terrible at closing on three point shooters, but it’s not only his fault.
Last night’s game thread was wildly entertaining. “Get Mudiay the ball” when we were up 20+ had me laughing this morning.
Seriously, though, we need to rest Hardaway in April. I know it looks bleak now because we’ve lost 8 straight and have barely moved up the lottery ladder, but I’m optimistic. I think we’re the worst team in the league, and we can do this. I honestly think we let the 18 win teams catch up to us.
We need to want to, though. The all star break is a good time to rejigger the rotations. Hornacek should either be fired or given better instructions.
@13 +1 A lot of people underrate the impact both him Frank have at such a young age.
He has issues defending the quicker PFs so he gives them a little more space and tries to use length when they shoot, but it’s probably partly because leaving Kanter alone in the middle is like playing 4 against 5.
@18
Exactly
I think that catching Orlando in the lottery chase is not far-fetched. They’ve beaten some good teams lately and we play them twice. Chicago is in play as well, they have 3 games vs. Brooklyn and one against us, and are only 1 loss ahead of us. The Nets have no reason to lose, so they may go on a silly run, although their schedule looks tough. The Kings and Griz have lots of games left, and the Kings are 4-6 in their last 10.
If Hornacek plays his cards right, I think we have a legit shot at finishing 8th and a realistic shot at the 7 spot. Nine is still most likely, and 10-11 are in play if he f’s up.
Whatever impact Frank has had has been more than mitigated by his fouling and horrific offense. Remains to be see whether that changes.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I feel like the winless February I predicted is looking solid. Really need to come out of the break with a hangover at Orlando. Then there’s a critical road trip where we could really go winless if set our minds to it. Throw in the home game against Toronto and I we could really stretch this streak to 16 before the big Frank v Dennis tank commander showdown at the Garden. And if the teams below us average 3 wins out of 10, we’ll be very close to the bottom.
@ Orlando
Boston
Golden State
@ LA
@ Sacaramento
@ Portland
@Milwaukee
Toronto
Dallas
Also… if we lose 15 in a row, there’s a strong chance Hornacek will be fired. And you know what that means?
RAMBIS TIME!!!!!!
Guys we have the greatest tank driver of ALL TIME sitting right next to Hornacek. You gotta believe!
Yeah. The direction the Knicks have taken, selecting defense first guys and hoping they can figure out the offense, is something I am definitely behind. And both KP and Frank have elite defensive qualities.
Why Frank couldn’t play last night is a mystery to me but thank god, because he always seems to be pretty helpful, shitty box scores notwithstanding. Although -8 last night.
Great loss last night, really pulled it out of the fire. I know rooting for losses isn’t as exciting as it has been in years past but at least we probably don’t have the kind of tragic disappointments we have had in years past in store either.
I know this is a controversial take, but Hornacek did the right thing last night. There was no combination of players that could have won the game because they’re either atrocious defensively or atrocious offensively. I’m starting to see things from Scott Perry’s perspective about how intentionally losing is a hard thing to get out of your building. Guys probably won’t get after it as hard in practice when they’ve been losing every game for the entire month. Having to answer to the New York media after losing night after night and then be assaulted by lolKnicks twitter probably sucks, too. From a tanking perspective, it’s dumb to try to win games at all costs. Everybody in that locker room is probably craving a win, and the way the Knicks look I’d be surprised if we get more than 4 of those the rest of the way. Most of the damage, if not all of it, was done in Fall when we were winning with Enes Kanter and Courtney Lee pulverizing teams with their crazy efficiency and with KP looking like a top 10 player. To try to get a home win against a playoff team when two of your key guys (Kanter and TH2) are playing well is probably a morale boost. “Coach believes in us even though KP is down.” Who knows how the players think? As much as the game is about numbers, these are also real people. Playing the younger guys would have been waving the white flag in the name of development, and that might get a guy or two to undermine you in practice or not listen in timeouts.
I’m just sayin. Roll Tank.
I don’t think we can catch Phoenix, Sacto, and Brooklyn. Those teams are just awful. Orlando is pretty bad too, but the Mavs and Hawks have strong moments. I think we’re actually worse than those teams. Memphis has some good, young guys, too, and Chicago has good moments, for sure.
I think that 4 or 5 is the highest we could possibly rise, but those early-season wins have really hurt us. It’s good to have goals, though! Let’s go for it, guys.
Brooklyn has a good stretch in them. I’m very optimistic they’ll pass us.
But what Hornacek did last night is the exact opposite of building trust and a winning culture. He just went to the awful vets and kept the useful guys (vets too, see: Lee, Courtney) on the bench. He’s out of his damn mind.
another guy to keep an eye on is shamorie ponds… for whatever reason he doesn’t have a first rd grade…. and would be an absolute steal in the 2nd rd…. he is the second best pg in the draft by a country mile…. and from brooklyn no less…
I don’t think we can get past the #7 spot b/c in order to catch anyone they would have to beat the other tanking teams, e.g. if Chi-Bkn split their three games, that hurts our chances to catch either of them, we need one of them to sweep, or the team that wins 2 to go on a run by beating other tanking teams. But I’d be cool with the 7 spot, way better than what we most feared when we were over .500, the dreaded 14 spot. 9-10 are not great, but some good choices will be in play at those spots.
I like what I’ve seen of Tadas Sedekerskis as a 2nd round pick – great passing sf, good size, seems to get down the court well. Anyone have any intel on him?
BKN should have RHJ/Levert back and ORL should have Vuc/Gordon after the all star break.
I think we’ll drop to 7th and I’m happy with that.
In other news, AD scored 42 points on 18 shots and 11 free throws. Not since Garnett has talent been wasted like this.
@26 – trying to win at all costs also has repurcussions…. it cost us wily…. keeping the older vets around and still losing also wears on players…. there has to be some growth… if the team is going backwards then that is the worst thing to morale that there is…. and without talent growth coming from the young guys then you’ll get stagnation and everyone will be complaining…..
there’s more than one way to build a winning culture…. but first and foremost you need talent…. the way this front office and the coaching staff is behaving is they are overweighting intangibles in favor of production…. all those intangibles matter once you’ve already built a foundation of core players… what leadership effect does lance thomas have when he’s the least impactful guy on the roster?
You mean the Willy that is sitting the bench for Charlotte, just like the did here?
He couldve been our bench big next year without having to spend money on koq or beas…
Don’t take Willy’s sitting on the bench at in Charlotte as evidence of anything. Clifford is notoriously vet-biased and has terrible rotations because of it
Or maybe he just sucks…
Spurs are gonna sign Willy the second he hits FA.
The Knicks and the Hornets are two paragons of organizational competence, so we should definitely accept all decisions they make uncritically.
I have no special insights into evaluating coaches, but I’m going to throw something out there.
Exploiting and defending certain matchups is part of the strategy of coaching, but I think Hornacek may be overthinking or putting too much weight on things like that. In almost all his post game comments he explains his lineup decisions in terms of the matchup or something else along the same line. Maybe sometimes you just have to put your 5 best players on the court knowing the other team will have the advantage in some areas and you will have the advantage in others. If one guy is getting targeted regularly, (like Kanter), then maybe that guy isn’t a starter.
Whatever, that doesn’t mean that Willy doesn’t suck…
No reason to fire Hornacek. Pays to have a shitty coach that’s easy to fire when the right time comes along. Why hire a new coach now that might actually try (and be capable of) squeezing some wins out of this team. Let Horny twist in the wind for now.
Well, in this case, if they fired Horny, the ultimate tank commander, Rambis, would take over. The guy who was all, “Porzingis shouldn’t be shooting so many threes” two years ago. So I wouldn’t be too worried about them changing their ways under him. However, since I want them to tank next year, as well, and Rambis is far more annoying as a coach than Hornacek, I guess I’d just as soon keep Horny.
Would you guys trade down if Bamba is there at 7? Assume the top guys are off the board at the time.
Not really a fan of his game as he seems pretty slowish on defense. We could still get Wendell/Mikal a few spots lower and maybe trade one of the vets on draft day.
I don’t think Bamba is enough of a favorite that a team that could just take Carter would be willing to give up anything of note for Bamba.
I don’t understand why people are so down on Mo Bamba whose ceiling is Rudy Gobert with a post game and 3 point jumper. The kid has like a 9 foot wingspan or something like that. Don’t expect the Knicks to pass on Harlem’s Mo Bamba.
I’m hoping a dumb team(besides us) gets enamored with his wingspan enough to want a trade up.
Is unintentional losing hard to get out of the building? Because we’ve done a ton of that over the last two decades.
I like Bamba just fine, but I don’t think he’s all that more exciting that Carter, who you can get a pick or two later. But yes, Bamba will likely be taken within the top 7 by whoever has a pick there.
But it really, really isn’t. Just get enough talented players and you will stop losing. The Sixers got enough talented players this season that they’re no longer losing. Same with Minnesota – they had twelve losing seasons in a row. They collected young assets and voila (the Timberwolves and the Celtics are good examples, also, of how collecting young assets doesn’t mean that you have to even play all of those young assets. It means that you have more assets for trades for available star players, as well).
I mean isn’t that what you’d want the coach of a tanking team to do?
At least after the Knicks game I got to watch coach Boy Wonder and his super team get handily beaten by the Clippers. GS/Blazers was fun too, although the Dubs are pretty obviously mailing games in at this point.
For next season, I guess I’d rather take David Blatt as coaching the Knicks than Hornacek. I think it is time we get a coach with a proven record of success and I’m not sure who else would fit the bill.
The Clips might be an interesting trade down partner — they’ll probably have 2 picks between 12-16ish if we don’t like whoever is available at 7 or 8.
While I think that there’s a notable drop off from the top 5-6, I think there’s also a notable drop-off from Carter/Bridges to the guys past, say, #11, so I’d just as soon see the Knicks hold on to their pick, even if they’re stuck at #9.
Huh, I forgot about the fact that Sexton has now cracked the Top 10 on most lists, so I guess #12 would still have one of the Bridges or Kevin Knox available then. So I guess in that case, sure, I take it back. I would trade the #9 pick for the #12 and #14 picks.
@53 The Knicks get talented players all the time and struggle to develop them. I think we have the most All-Rookie 1st teamers since the turn of the decade, so it’s not as simple as get talented players. Organizations like Boston, Houston, Golden State, Toronto, San Antonio, Washington, Miami, Denver, Portland, Milwaukee, and to a lesser extent Miami got guys in their building and developed their talent. These are teams that didn’t win a draft lottery but ended up taking their talent and making it work. Minnesota drafted Towns but he’s a generational talent. They could not develop Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, or Dunn so they ended up paying market value for a team that’s 4th best in the West and about to be over the luxury tax when Karl Towns is making $30M+ a season. That’s how they got the stench of losing out of their building. Philly is the most radical approach ever and while they look good every single one of their top franchise cornerstones has injury concerns. Would I take Philly’s approach over ours? All day every day, but it still remains to be seen if what they did was worth it in the long run.
For every Philly and pre-Harden trade OKC, there’s a Sacramento, a Charlotte, a New Orleans, a Phoenix, an Orlando, and a New York (EDIT: I mention New York not because we’re similar in strategy, but because we’re bad at developing talent). History has shown that tanking is a hard thing to get out of because the best guys don’t lose much. They develop talent and put that talent in the best position to succeed. Roll Tank, though. We need to land Michael Porter Jr and RJ Barrett in the next two drafts.
Carter could be moving up boards, and if we’re stuck at 9, we could be picking between the two Bridges. That wouldn’t be terrible, but neither is projected to be an impact player like the top 6 are. If we’re at 8, I might have to take Bamba, if he’s there, over both Bridges. And I like both Bridges a lot.
Btw, if you want Hornacek fired we all know that job is going to Mark Jackson and not the hottest assistant coach out there. Be careful what you wish for.
maybe when we hire Marc Jackson as coach, he can teach all our guards the teardrop, then all of our problems will be solved.
I think team development is a process.
Most players have to experience important games, a playoff race, get actual playoff experience, and maybe even need to go deep against a tough rival before they are mentally tough enough to handle the pressures of the main event and finally break through.
The T-Wolves didn’t start winning until they traded away a bunch of their young players and added veterans with playoff experience. The fact that they were better players was obviously critical, but they were better partly due to their greater experience. Now they will get experience for Towns and Wiggins. Towns and Wiggins will benefit from that experience and get better.
Some of Danny Ainge’s younger players already had some experience winning and getting into the playoffs when he robbed the Nets. Then he added Horford and eventually Irving and Hayward which accelerates it because they are better and more experienced. That will help the younger players get even better.
It’s a kind of positive/negative feedback loop. The more success you have, the more it helps your mental and physical development. The more seasoned and developed you are the more success you will have.
We are at the stage where we can’t even get that positive feedback loop going.
Yeah if you draft Bamba/Carter at 9, and Miles Bridges is available at 12, do you make that trade? Maybe you end up with M. Bridges and Shai Alexander or Robert Williams? I don’t know… I still don’t make the trade.
If we could get like Mikal and Robert Williams then I would be tempted to do a trade down.
Ha! I hope you’re actually talking about Marc Jackson that guy who was in the running for ROY at age 26 in 2001 and not Mark Jackson.
Bamba has similar issues as jackson…. he’s a disaster with the ball in his hands… only he’s not a good shooter… he’s also almost a year older than jackson …. the thing in his favor is that he’s better in the paint but there’s less hope that he develops his shot… and right now it doesn’t look good….
can he be like a tyson chandler? maybe…. but bigs who grab boards.. blocks shots… but poor ball skills… and no outside shot… are a dime a dozen in this league…. his problem is that he thinks he’s more than that which is going to devalue him….
Of those teams, Washington and San Antonio literally did win the lottery with John Wall and Tim Duncan. The Heat started everything by drafting Dwyane Wade with a top five pick. Golden State drafted Curry and Thompson with lottery picks. DeRozan was a lottery pick and Lowry was acquired with a lottery pick. The Greek Freak was a lottery pick. Denver and Portland, I have no idea what they’re even doing with those other teams. How in the world are you pooh-poohing Minnesota being the #4 team in the West while pointing out Denver and Portland as a good example of team-building?
Losing in the short term to win in the long term has been the #1 most common way of rebuilding teams throughout the history of the NBA since the real draft began (before, the good teams could acquire dudes through territorial rights, which was such horseshit).
Houston, though, yes, they’re clearly their own deal. Morey’s amazing. So sure, if the Knicks could replicate Darryl Morey, that’d be swell.
They couldn’t develop LaVine and Dunn and instead traded them for Jimmy Butler! Because young assets will still get you star players, like how Al Jefferson and a pick got the Celtics Kevin Garnett.
Things might fall apart for them, but I think it’s already achieved what it set out to do. They’ve got two young stars. If they fuck it up past that, I don’t think that’s a knock on the process that got them there.
I don’t see it. We have seen that some teams have done poorly, but more teams have done better out of it and often, the teams that have done the worst have been the ones who deviated from their strategy like morons (like the Knicks always, like the Magic trading Oladipo for Serge Ibaka, like Phoenix trading the Lakers first rounder for Brandon Knight or signing Tyson Chandler to a huge contract, etc.)
I think it depends on who’s there at #9.
Tim Duncan has since retired, though. Nobody on the current San Antonio team was a lotto pick except for LMA who they signed in free agency. The Spurs, who are an outlier and poor example honestly, develop their players from all over the draft. I see what you’re saying with Washington, though. I completely forgot John Wall went 1st overall in 2010. I’m not really focusing on losing short term to build a long term winner, though. I agree that losing is a part of rebuilding, and signing veterans to undermind that rebuild is foolish.
My point is that intentionally losing with guys who you plan to have around mid to long term may hurt their development. As many success stories that came from a rebuild are as many failures that are there, and I find that’s an infrastructure and culture issue. You need the right coaches, right executives, the right training staff, and the right doctors. Take for example the Mudiay trade where Scott Perry keeps himself in communication with Frank Ntilikina about why that trade happened. That’s a culture thing; don’t let your 19 year old rookie lose confidence in himself by letting him think the organization is giving up on him. Next thing you know that young kid isn’t practicing as hard, he’s moping, and you’re trading him to Charlotte for 2020 and 2021 2nd round picks.
I guess I just distinguish between being genuinely bad but trying to win and intentionally losing by not playing to your strengths. I think the first is healthy and the second is foolish and starts you down a bas cycle.
@69
Brian said everything.
The time to focus on development is once you have assets and young talent or an established star. The Knicks have neither, just a couple of mediocre assets and some still unproven young talent.
It is my firm belief that everybody in the NBA except for Lance Thomas is talented. How organizations acquire, develop, and utilize that talent is all up to them. So far, I’m a believer in Scott Perry. I’m not sure we have the right guys around to develop players, but I think we have the right idea. Try to win with what you have, value youth and draft picks, use the G League, and sign vets for cheap. Perry is aiming for 2020 as he should. When KP is on his 2nd contract we need to be winning. So we’ll suck this year for Michael Porter Jr, and we’ll suck next year for RJ Barrett. Hopefully one or two Mudiay, Burke, and Ntilikina develop into useful guards and TH2 doesn’t April Shower on our parade.
@ 73 – its refreshing to read this take. I’ve been very pleased with this season so far. Obviously the KP injury SUCKS big time. And ironically its a good thing for Perry bc now he can punt this season and next, but I truly believe he was looking long term anyways.
People on this site really focus so much on any little negative thing or mistake when basically we all were worried before training camp that we’d have to sit through another season of Melo chucking the ball. We turned Melo into a high second round pick, Mudiay and Kanter. That ain’t bad! People want assets and young players that can potentially be here long term and develop and his first trade out of the gate got that for us and he turned some of that trade into another promising young player (and please do not read me his stats. He’s 21 and didn’t play in college).
Here is what we have going forward that we can potentially build long term around: KP, Frank, 2018 1st round pick, 2018 Chicago 2nd round pick, Mudiay, Burke, Hardaway, Dotson, Ron, Kanter, 2019 1st round pick, 2020 1st round pick, other second round picks.
Then we have KQ who I think we could reasonably resign to a similar deal for the next 4 years and keep him here as our primary back up big. We’ll have cap space open up from Lee, Lance and Noah in the next two years. We might even get back an asset for Lee.
There’s still muck clearing that has to be done from the phil era but phil didn’t trade picks and now perry can actually use that to build a winner. It ain’t gonna happen right away. But I like what I see.
TEAM OPTIMIST FOREVER!
Since most great players are drafted high in the lottery & most great teams have one or more great players they drafted does that mean you should tank for a better draft pick?
It’s not that easy.
The important question to ask is how many teams have purposely gotten worse to improve their draft position, DID GET the better draft position they were hoping to get out of the lottery, managed to draft the best available player that year at that spot, and then did it enough times to build a champion?
Not many.
Most that have tried didn’t win the lottery, didn’t select the best available player despite the better pick or had a very spotty draft record over time. The results were that they didn’t dig themselves out of the hole for a very long time.
The successful teams have been well managed teams that happened to be bad temporarily due to prior poor management or injuries, won the lottery despite having fewer lottery balls than other teams, or lucked into the best player somewhere else in the lottery. Then they intelligently added free agents, better players via trade, and continued using other draft picks to build a champion based on their good fortune.
Golden State lucked into Curry 1 slot ahead of the Knicks (oh the pain of it). They were not tanking prior to that. They were just bad because they were mismanaged. They got better management. Then they picked up other key players later in the draft (even the 2nd round), via free agency, trade, and ultimately landed Durant in free agency. Curry was not a tank or even top 5 pick.
The Rockets made all value oriented decisions in and out of the draft.
Ainge broke up his team, but didn’t build via draft. He used well timed trades to accumulate assets, used free agency to bring in more developed stars, and started cashing in some of the draft chips to get better players. His best players are Kyrie, Hayward, and Horford (none drafted).
Tanking seems obvious, but the results are not.
Boston absolutely tanked in 2013. Ainge is just a better GM than most, so he was able to turnaround his team quicker. But his intent was for the 2013-14 Celtics to lose as many games as possible.
The Warriors also did one of the most obvious tank jobs in the history of the NBA to get the pick that became Harrison Barnes (who was #4 in the team in minutes per game during the regular season and the playoffs when they won their title in 2015).
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, would never have had Lebron return to them had they not tanked after he left (which allowed them to trade for the pick that got them Kyrie and also draft Tristan Thompson with the #4 pick).
Making your team lose in the short term to win in the long term has been the strategy of pretty much every NBA team in the history of the current draft system. Things just got more aggressive when they started weighting the top of the draft heavier, that’s all. But this is the same basic strategy that nearly every good team has ever used. The Pre-Jordan Bulls, the Pre-Sampson Rockets, the Pre-Bird Celtics, the Pre-Magic Lakers, the Pre-Willis Knicks, the Pre-Durant Thunder, the Pre-Isiah Pistons.
The thing about tanking is that it can’t really be a strategy that your HC or your players or even really the GM is complicit in. The only thing you can and should do is not sign vet FA’s. So, starting after KP was drafted we should have only filled out our roster with un-drafted FA’s.
The minute the season starts, as a fan, you have to expect your team to try like hell to win every game, even when you know it may hurt you on draft night. It’s hard to imagine a braintrust of a team scheming to lose games. Even Bret Brown in the hey day of 6er disfunction wasn’t doing that. He just had a d-league roster
You can’t, at this point, expect Hornacek to not play Hardaway. That he should have never been signed, at this point is clear, but now that he’s here, he’s going to play and may win us some games.
So, though we suck, and it makes my stomach hurt, we weren’t built to tank. We’re just barely in the top two thirds of the league. We’re going to eventually win enough games to ensure it. Sorry.
Of course coaches are part of tanking. Coaches find ways to sit their veteran players this time of year all the time. Except never on the Knicks. Because the Knicks are about a winning culture (while always losing).
Players, though, yes, players are never going to tank. That’s definitely true. The players are always going to try to win. Which is why some coaches have done extreme things to make sure their team loses (like the infamous Mark Madsen game).
Ainge was smart enough to break up his team when he knew Pierce and Garnett were shot but he could still get assets for them, but his 3 best players are Horford, Kyrie, and Hayward. NONE were the result of that draft or any other draft. They were the result of smart FA additions and intelligent value oriented asset accumulation of the type I have been advocating also (win the deal).
Barnes was a highly overrated player that wasn’t even a critical part of their championship run. In fact, I think he shouldered a lot of the blame for the year they lost to the Cavs.
The Cavs did not tank. They sucked after Lebron left, were mismanaged, made some bad picks, and got luckily got Kyrie when then attracted James back IF if could get Love too.
There is a huge difference between saying “the season is over, lets give the young players some development run and we’ll get a better pick anyway” and saying “let’s clean house so we suck and get a better pick”. The first is sensible. The second digs you into a hole that you won’t escape for many many years assuming you are smart.
Kyrie was acquired directly from the decision to tank, since the only reason the Cavs agreed to trade him to Boston was because of the Nets pick, which they got from tanking. Ainge was smart enough to actually get picks for his vet players and then tank unlike the Knicks, who instead decided to extend their aging star and trade Tyson Chandler for Jose Calderon.
Of the Celtics’ current top seven in minutes per game on their way to a .678 winning percentage, Horford is the only person who was not a direct result of their decision to tank (and even there, signing a big free agent after you’ve already become a good team due to your tank isn’t really a knock on the tank – same with Hayward – now, had they signed Horford when they sucked and that worked out, okay, that would be anti-tank argument. It wasn’t, so it isn’t).
What Ainge was really good at was being willing to take picks and players in exchange for facilitating other players’ deals when the Celtics weren’t good. It’s how they got Cleveland’s first rounder just for facilitating another trade and they used that pick to get Isaiah Thomas. It was how they got Detroit’s first rounder (that became Tony Allen) just for facilitating the Rasheed Wallace trade (then they flipped the guys they took in that trade to the Lakers that offseason to help the Lakers clear cap space and got the pick that became Rajon Rondo!). That was the sort of thing the Knicks should have been doing with their cap room for years instead of wasting it on signing Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams. It’s what Ainge, Morey and Hinkie have always been good at doing.
They were absolutely trying to lose the season after Lebron left (including trading Mo Williams for the pick that got them Kyrie). After that, then yes, they just got lucky with their picks, but the Kyrie/Tristan draft was absolutely a result of them trying to be as bad as possible. And Lebron likely doesn’t return to Cleveland if they don’t have Kyrie.
Do you realize that if this “winning culture” was a thing the 2012-13 should have given way to a half-decade of good Knicks basketball?
Let’s face it, all of our problems start and end with Dolan ineptitude.
It’s sort of like how Melo used to get credit for always making the playoffs…until he stopped making the playoffs. Or how KG didn’t know how to win for years until he was on a really good Celtics team. It’s like the baseball saying, “Momentum is only as good as your pitcher the next day.”
Brian,
There is a difference between being bad and tanking.
I am not and have never been opposed to winning deals like Ainge even if you get a little worse in the short term. But you have to WIN THE DEAL. You can’t get worse just to get a better pick.
Ainge WAS NOT trying to get worse to get a better pick and build via the draft. He was trying to win deals that would make his team better over the long haul. He was willing to accept being worse in the short term to win the deal as I would. But he gladly would have accepted a deal to make himself better immediately if he could find one. That’s why he signed Horford even though the team was nowhere near ready and he was older. Then he signed Thomas on a great deal to get better. He ultimately used him as part of the deal to get Kyrie. He is not now and never was tanking to get a better pick or build via draft. He was winning deals that in the Nets case was a robbery of picks.
The Cavs did not purposely tank at all. They were a mismanaged basket case of a team that was so inept James left. Then they sucked.
Their main starters the final year were James, Parker, Hickson, Mo Williams, the shell of Shaq, and Jamison. (how great was James at that point lmao)
Parker, Hickson, Jamison, and Williams were back and they also got back Varejao. That wasn’t a tank. James left and they sucked.
They got Kyrie out of their misfortune, but that is the kind of accidental luck I’ve been referring to. There are great players in almost every draft. Someone that sucks is going to get them. But they didn’t tank. They were mismanaged and then were the lucky ones that accidentally got the best player. Someone always does. The fact that they took Bennett and Wiggins after that tells you their resurgence was more about getting lucky than any special insight or attempt to tank.
Once melo gets to play with a PG who can penetrate, you’ll see him put up at least a .600 TS%. Dude shoots 42%!! on spot up 3’s.
What makes me laugh is listening to the idiots, rapscallions and scoundrels who think Chris Paul will move the needle for the Rockets.
Making your team worse in the short term to be better in the long term is tanking. If you don’t believe that is tanking, then fine, we’ll come up with another term for it. In either event, the Knicks haven’t done “Smart Basketball Strategy That You Don’t Want to Call Tanking.” Ainge did. He dealt his best players for draft picks and tried to lose as many games as possible the following season. If he was about winning, he would not have traded his best remaining player during that season. He traded him for the same reason. To get worse while getting draft picks to get better later. He was so good at doing these deals that they got better really quick. Note, however, that he expressly did not touch a single draft pick from the Nets deal or sign a major free agent until they were already a good team. Because Ainge isn’t a moron (on that point, “That’s why he signed Horford even though the team was nowhere near ready and he was older”? Come on. They were coming off of a 48-win season with a very young team. They were “nowhere near ready”? That’s not even remotely true).
As for the Cavs, they did “Smart Basketball Strategy That You Don’t Want to Call Tanking” in the first year after Lebron left. After that, yes, they did the same dumb stuff that the Knicks and other teams did and just got lucky. That first year, though, they totally did “Smart Basketball Strategy That You Don’t Want to Call Tanking.”
I’ll bite on this discussion for the 1846th time, strato:
What difference does it make then if a team intentionally loses games or if it is just unintentionally terrible?
Let’s say the Cavs post Lebron really didn’t tank at all. Do you think there’s any benefit from trying to win (and end up winning less than 20 games) instead of just saying screw it, let’s play young guys and not reinforce the team so we end up not winning 20?
Nobody is arguing that a front office should come to the players and say “hey boys now it’s the time to miss shots intentionally! Miss as many as you can!”.
If LeBron had left the year Towns or Simmons was the consensus 1st overall pick instead of Bennett or Wiggins, would you still think the same?
I just don’t get this poison thing that tanking is supposed to do to a team. So nobody outside of Philadelphia ever tanked? Every team that sucks this year pretty much outside the Bulls and maybe the Hawks (who you could argue just suck and had not many chances to make their team better by a number of reasons) reinforced their teams with veterans and tried to win. Is Sacramento going to be in a better position than the Bulls because they tried to win with veterans then sucked anyway?
continued…
The point I am making is that in the draft there will be one or more great players in many years. Someone that was terrible will typically get them and turn around. That doesn’t make the correct strategy to suck.
You cannot exclude all the teams that were terrible that also got high draft picks but selected players that weren’t great or even good. Those teams often get buried in years and years of mediocrity chasing great players in the draft but never wining the lottery, never selecting the best player, and going years and years without escaping.
Trying to get lucky in the draft is not a strategy (and to a large extent getting a good result in the lottery and being lucky enough to select the right player is luck).
The only way you can change it from luck to a smart strategy is to do it in such high volume (like the 76ers) you slowly get a high enough probability of being lucky on your side you have a high expectation of it it working. But like I’ said the other day, even the people that were part of the 76ers at the time are suggesting no one do that again because of the downsides.
The difference is if you are trying to unload players that could add wins now without winning the deal long term, you are digging yourself into a worse hole.
The difference is that if early in the season you play all the kids, the veterans and players that earned the minutes based on merit will get pissed off, their agents will get pissed off, the players that are in contract years will get pissed off, their agents will get pissed off, all hell will break loose in the locker room, Isola will be the only happy guy in NY, and your organization becomes a very unattractive destination in trades and for FAs in the future.
You have to be patient. If a deal is made to move a vet, you have to win it. You have to wait until later in the season to start giving minutes to young players that don’t deserve them on merit because once the season is more or less over the vets will settle into accepting 20 or so games of lower playing time.
I think the question more is “will playing our established veterans lose us more games than playing our rookies?” And the answer is a toss up imo. Isn’t a Kanter/Beas/Thomas/THJ/Jack lineup as much “tanking” as anything?
While true, the issue is that Hornacek clearly believes otherwise (that his vets help the team win more). That was the galling thing about last night. He clearly saw a possible win over a good team and decided to ride his starters.
“Winning the deal long term” is just getting rid of the player when you’re getting rid of veterans who shouldn’t be on the roster to begin with. Now, if that means taking worse players signed to similar contracts, of course you don’t do it. But if it means taking “only” second rounders if that’s all the market will bear, then you still win just by getting them off of your team.
I don’t really disagree with this, which is why the real problem was going into the season with the veterans period. Courtney Lee should have been traded as soon as possible. Kyle O’Quinn should have been traded as soon as possible. Tim Hardaway Jr. should not been signed. Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack should not been handed starting jobs. The rest would have sorted itself out.
And speaking of free agent destinations, no one was ever as dysfunctional as the shitty Clippers and their racist owner…then they drafted Blake Griffin and suddenly people wanted to play (and coach) there.
Our organisation is already as unattractive as possible to free agents! How does Courtney Lee being angry about his playing time going to change anything?
I don’t see anyone saying the Sixers are today a worst destination for any player than the Knicks, and they have intentionally tanked for half a decade.
Do you think an agent will tell his player to not go to the Knicks because we’ve tanked in one season, or because Joakim Noah or Courtney Lee was angry he didn’t play as much as he wanted?
I’m sorry, I think you’re extremely naive in terms of what attracts players to go to a place or another. Players want two things: money and wins.
If you have talent on your roster and the cap space, players will want to join. Nobody wants to come to the Knicks because the team sucks and has no talent. Obviously after that, between the talentless teams, they’ll choose the less terrible situation in terms of ownership and front office.
I just don’t see how a talentless team with a terrible owner ever acquires talent without the draft.
And Lance. AND LANCE
Here’s the subtle difference.
It’s smart when you win the deal.
It’s not smart when the ultimate goal is just a better draft pick.
The list of teams that became great by winning deals that made them a little worse in the short term to accumulate players and assets that would make them better in the long term is large.
The list of teams that became great by purposely getting worse to get a better draft pick is littered with the corpses of a large number of teams that didn’t get a good a good result in the lottery or selected the wrong player in the draft.
Getting worse is not the key component to success or the goal of great managers.
It’s winning the deal.
Getting a little worse in the short term to be a lot better in the long term is an undesirable but acceptable condition of winning the deal.
Here we talk about the goal as, “We have to tank to get a better pick”.
No!
We have to get better long term by winning deals and if that means being worse in the short term that’s acceptable. But if we can win a deal and get better now and long term, go for it!
Giving up KOQ and Lee for a 2nd round pick is losing the deal.
You have to be more patient than that. The added value of a few more ping pong balls and the HOPE you select the better player with a slightly better pick IF you are lucky in the lottery is lower than the value you are giving up. You only toss players away for less than they worth when you are certain you will never get a return on them or if it creates space that enables an even better deal (something like that). We still have plenty of time to try to get more than a 2nd rounder out of Lee and we could possibly re-sign KOQ to another bargain contract which would be smarter than taking a 2nd rounder.
How in the world is his value going to go up? No one would trade a first rounder for him when he was 31. No one would trade a first rounder for him when he was 32. So why in the world would they possibly want to trade a first rounder for him when he’s 33 (and actually making more money per year, meaning you’d have to match more salary to get the deal done). Seriously, how does that make any sense to you?
O’Quinn, that one’s more debatable. It all comes down to the contract he’s willing to sign. I don’t think he’s taking MLE to stay and anything beyond that is too much, but sure, I will concede that that could at least theoretically occur. I’d probably still just take the second rounder and move on, but that’s definitely more of a debate. Not Lee. They’re not going to get more out of Lee later on.
KOQ at the MLE is a useful backup for anyone. Lee at 1.5 times of the Lou Williams contract is a disaster (even though I like the guy).
I’m very confused about your point, Strat. “Winning the deal” is what you’re getting at, but winning a deal is very different depending on the context. One could argue that the Cavs won their deal giving up a first round pick and getting certain veterans, while that would be disastrous for us.
Same for losing for a better pick. If the choice is (a) keeping Kyle O’Quinn and Lee, or (b) losing them, losing more games, and getting a better draft pick, one would argue that having kept KOQ and Lee gave us no real value for the future, and probably cost us a better draft pick. Opportunity cost is a thing.
To consider: The Spurs getting Tim Duncan, and the Warriors taking Curry a pick ahead of us, Kawhi was picked 2 ahead of us, and Towns picked #1.
An expiring KOQ for a 2nd rounder would have been winning the deal. A second rounder for Mudiay is losing the deal (unless Mudiay leads the tank to new lows).
I’m not sure what Lee’s value is. No one told me what the best offer was or what the Knicks were asking for him. It’s certainly not a 1st rounder in this market. However, it could be two good 2nd rounders. It could be a 2nd rounder, an expiring contract, and a flier on a young player that has disappointed so far (like a Mudiay). As an expiring deal, he might be worth more. The teams out there looking might vary later depending on injuries and needs.
I am just sure the incremental value of playing Dotson to lose a few more games, to get a few extra ping pong balls, to hope that translates into a better pick, to then hope we are lucky enough to actually select the better player with that slightly higher pick, is being overvalued.
Don’t get me wrong. I’ll take it. But I’m not panicking into bad trades for it. That value is tiny.
I think there is enough evidence to show there is multiple ways you can tank. The problem is sticking to a clear vision from the get go. If the coaches, players and FO have playoff goals at the start of the year, it puts you behind the 8 ball on the tanking teams. Commit early to it, and have patience.
My guess is that Mills is the problem with tanking. He’s the one that signed THJ to the big deal this offseason, instead of trying to rent the cap space to a team trying to unload an undesirable contract (with the Knicks getting a young player or pick). I’d call that “winning the deal.” Or, just sit on the cap space and try to do something like that at the trade deadline.
He didn’t sign THJ to tank. I’d bet that he very much wants the Knicks to win more games than they did last year under Jackson, and that might be creating pressure for Hornacek to win a few more games.
Random stat of the day: the Rockets are 28-1 when Harden Paul and Capela play.
Can we do a favor and stop mentioning Philly when it comes to teams to model. What they did was unrepeatable.
First – No team is going to repeat the Kings mistake, the whole league has taken notice after that trade and the Nets one. So trading for a bunch of extra unprotected picks is nearly impossible at this stage.
Second – Philly never gets Simmons if Embiid’s surgery had gone well. Embiid is too good and had he played in 2015 Philly would have won way too many games to get the #1 pick, and also would have been too good to get Fultz this year as well.
That was the Knicks problem coming into this year. KP was too good for us to tank. Once you draft your star you have maybe one more shot at a high draft pick before your star elevates you out of the top 5-6 picks in the draft. Generally, once teams hit on their pick they are trying to win by season 3 or 4. We are in season 3 and before KP’s injury we had no shot at a top 10 pick and honestly, I had no issue with us trying to win.
Now though, with KP hurt, we need to refocus and shoot for the bottom as much as possible. I’m glad we didn’t give O’Quinn away for nothing because I can see a scenario where he stays but I would have tried really hard to move Lee and Thomas even for just cap space. I would have also moved Beasley and JAck for a second, if possible. At this point, I think waiving Jack and Beasley, shutting down THJ to recover from injuries and limiting Lee and Kanter is the right move.
All this “winning the deal” talk seems to be really ignoring the concept of “win curve.”
Scenario A: Lee and O’Quinn play out the remainder of their contracts and you get nothing for them except their production in meaningless seasons in which you are tanking
Scenario B: You trade Lee and O’Quinn for some small long-term asset that might not be worth as much as Lee and O’Quinn themselves
Which scenario makes more sense? It seems to me like Strat is saying Scenario A is more desirable, because at least you didn’t “lose” a trade, and that does not make sense to me. Am I getting this wrong? Isn’t it better to get something rather than nothing?
Depends how much weight you give intangible things like “veteran locker room presence” etc., which I imagine adds value to scenario A. It’s been debated a fair bit whether this is an actual thing, but potentially could be factored in.
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-college-hoops-corruption-case-poised-take-hall-fame-coaches-top-programs-lottery-picks-224417174.html
I don’t know the severity of what is actually happening here, but if everybody is about to go down for circumventing the rules, maybe the rules were stupid in the first place?
I’m not sure just getting whatever you can for your assets is the one true path. I’ve watched Mets fans howl at Sandy Alderson to get something, anything, for vets in lost seasons and except for last year, he hasn’t done that. Obviously it’s a different game but I think some of the strong returns he’s gotten in trades have come from other teams knowing before negotiations began what kind of negotiator he is.
I think people are confusing the fact that different teams begin rebuilds at different points and get lucky to different degrees, causing the actual details of the process of going from bad to competitive to be different. The question is “is there a guiding philosophy that binds most teams that go from crappy to good?” and I think there are some simple principles:
1) When you’re bad, don’t acquire veteran players unless you’re bribed to do so.
2) Don’t retain veteran players with trade value even if you’re disappointed by the current market.
3) Don’t use more than a handful of roster spots on veteran players and make sure they are at a point in their careers where you can expect them to be totally cool with playing more of a mentor role and possibly losing minutes to worse players who are younger.
Does anyone find these controversial?
If not, the product of following these principles for the Knicks would result in probably about 20 wins this season. They would be “tanking” but that’s a product of the fact that they, as usual, clung to their mediocrity in teh Melo era, and so weren’t able to get real value when they took that core apart. Smarter teams usually don’t end up in a situation like the one the Knicks are in.
#107
I wish the FBI had been working on stoppimg school shootings instead of doing the NCAA’s dirty work.
College basketball is fun but incredibly inequitable and unfair and in the case of the NCAA bureaucracy just stupid. I always mention Taylor Branch’s The Shame of College Sports at times like this, still essential reading and still the best piece of sports journalism I have ever read. Changed how I think about things.
I hope they burn the NCAA down but seems like this won’t be the time.
Solid proposal, but the only thing I would say about point 2 is this is largely dependent on the veteran. If they produce well, but don’t necessarily tip you over the edge in the W column and are not a detrimental presence, then I think you are better served holding until a good deal comes along. Ultimately though, you would be adhering to point 1 of your proposal and thus wouldn’t need to worry much about 2.
we’re now up to 418 minutes of Kanter playing without KP and we give up an amazing 1.23 PPP allowing a TS of .613.
Jokic just had a triple double in 15 minutes. Fastest in NBA history.
@103
I’m starting to really believe these Rockets are good enough to take down Golden State. They’re incredibly deep and there’s just no way to properly guard Paul + Harden + Capela.
I saw a stat today that Harden and Paul combine for 14.8 ISO possesions per game and score 1.24 ppp on those. How can anyone stop that when they have baby Tyson Chandler rolling to the rim and Ariza + Anderson shooting 39% from 3 open in the perimeter? Unless they have injury issues or go incredibly cold shooting for 4 games, I think they can do it.
Should be two great conference finals: Houston v GSW and Raptors v Cavs. Raptors-Cavs might be like Pistons vs prime Kobe/Shaq. Does Toronto have enough offense in 4th quarter to topple Bron?
Would NO consider trading the Brow this summer when his trade value would be at its highest? If Raptors lose, Ibaka plus a bunch of their young players might be there. If Cavs lose, would Brow for Nance/Nets pick/Osman/Hood be enough for NO to pull the trigger and enough to keep Bron in Cleveland? And then there’s Boston as a possible destination.
Davis is probably at least a top 8 player in the league right now, I can’t see him being traded unless he demands it. He’s still not even 25.
When you have this sort of talent locked until the end of 2020 you just can’t trade it, I dont care what’s the return, it would be franchise suicide. The sad thing is that they really fucked up every possible avenue to build around him, and the Cousins injury even took away the best possible one (utilize the fact that Cousins is widely overrated around the league to trade him for better fitting pieces).
New Orleans just put themselves in an impossible situation to solve, with a player you will never be able to get even near equal value for in a trade and no way to properly build around him. They pretty much need a miracle to happen.
The Lakers could give New Orleans most of their young players and some picks for Davis and then add Lebron and maybe Paul George in free agency. You get some halfway decent guards and that would be a pretty good team.
Strat, sometimes it seems like you’re being willfully obtuse. Players depreciate in value as they age for incredibly obvious reasons (they get worse). Sitting around and waiting for the perfect deal with good deals on the table (i.e. a second rounder and expirings/shorter contracts for Lee) is a great way to wind up with an older player sucking up your cap space and minutes right up until the day their contract is up.
What if the front office had taken this absurd approach with Melo? Who says we’ll ever get an opportunity to trade Lee again? What fucking purpose does Courtney Lee serve on this team? No one is giving us a first rounder for him–that’s the cost for Blake Griffin and Larry Nance. We’d be incredibly lucky to get a mediocre 32 year old owed $25m for the next two years off our books.
We saw this trade deadline what 1st round picks got you, and Courtney Lee would be terrible value for a 1st round pick. 2017 will probably be the last year we’ve seen 1st round picks traded for semi-useful vets. Part of being a good GM is exploiting market inefficiencies. Getting a 2nd 1st round pick off a playoff team used to be a market inefficiency, but that is no longer the case. Teams are relying on cost controlled assets like 1st round picks because the free agent market this summer is going to be really stingy. Teams aren’t trying to pay the 8 figure AAVs right now. We could have gotten a 1st round pick for Courtney Lee last year, but 2018 is a new time.
I’d argue the biggest market inefficiency in today’s game is collegiate upperclassmen. Guys like Kyle Kuzma and Donovan Mitchell got overlooked because they weren’t hyped as freshmen. I’m looking at Chandler Hutchinson, Jevon Carter, and Allonzo Trier this year as guys who can come in and play really well. Jock Landale probably has the highest PAWS40 in the class and then there are some other guys who could have a shot in the NBA. I hope the Knicks use whatever resources we have in the second round to draft an NCAA senior.
We also can’t really ignore the fact that in Lee’s specific case, the guy had played for 6 franchises in 8 seasons, so before Phil Jackson came along nobody was willing to commit to him long term anyway, so why would any franchise be jumping at the opportunity now that he’s 32 and obviously overpaid?
Nothing against the guy, but every franchise he’s been a part of had no issues shipping him in the first 3 or 4 teamer available to them.
Lee is a fine player but signing him for more than 2 years was always stupid
Heck, even at 2 years, what was the best case scenario? Probably the same offers they got this year, which weren’t much. He just never made sense here. And I agree that he’s a fine player. I like Courtney Lee as a player a lot. Always have. But his signing was always a mistake.