Knicks Morning News (2017.12.10)

Ay-yep.

I didn’t watch the game because it was a sure W in my mind. So will someone please tell me how in the fawk did we lose last night? I read the box score and it doesn’t tell the whole story. I saw that KP missed a ton of shots, Ntilikina had a good game as did Kris Dunn(a player that I badly wanted the Knicks to trade for last season), and Mirotic killed us off the bench. Did the squad just overlook the Bulls or something? Or is this awful play on the road an official “thing” for the team?

I’m starting to trust Perry more and more.

1. Despite conventional wisdom, the draft math is pretty clear. A few extra ping pong balls don’t matter much once you are outside the top 5 picks or so. We are 25 games into this season and still don’t know whether Frank was a better or worse pick than several players selected before and after him. We may not know for a few years. A lot of it is player development and luck. The “no brain” picks are at the very top. We aren’t going to be in that range.

2. Part of player development is playing meaningful games under fire. That goes double for getting playoff experience under high pressure where the games are called differently, defenses are more physical, there are constant adjustments, and young players’ nerves are firing on all cylinders. Giannis Antetokounmpo got something out of his playoff experience last year and is mentally tougher and smarter this year for it. That’s a process also. The same will be true for KP, Frank, Dotson, Willy, and each our other young players once we get to their level and are battling in meaningful games.

3. A lot of top free agents and players looking to be traded won’t even give us an interview because we are seen as a dysfunctional losing organization. Players want to win. That’s why teams like the Spurs always draw good players on good deals. If the Knicks want to be part of those conversations they have to be seen as an up and coming well managed team.

4. There will be a time to tank games if the wheels start coming off as the schedule gets tougher, but we are nowhere near that. And as far as I know, there are no offers on the table for any of our players where the deal would make sense for us. There’s loads of interest, but teams are hoping we are still foolish enough to give good players away. No deal should be made unless we win it. We need to be patient if we want to get a good return.

I’m starting to think KP doesn’t have a very high basketball IQ. I’ll grant him a little slack because he’s trying to learn how to be the #1 option, but his shot selection would be dreadful if he was a rookie. As a 3rd year player it’s inexcusable. What makes matter worse is that he’s weak rebounder and playmaker. That means all his value comes from his scoring ability and defense. He has to more than make up for his weaknesses with much better than average play at his strengths. If he’s going to be a high usage average efficiency scorer taking 4-5 bad shots a night, he’s not a very good player, let alone a star. We go as he goes. When he’s scoring efficiently he brings enough to the table for us to win games. When he’s not, we are bad. It was that way last year and it’s that way again now. Someone has to explain to him the difference between a good shot and bad one because he’s literally clueless.

Here’s my take on roster moves…
1st, I’ll start with the elephant in the room wearing a 13 jersey. I wish he could be granted a medical retirement, but he appears healthy. So, why not play him with the 2nd unit with the hopes that a contending team comes knocking for his services? We have 4 centers who can play. It’s not gonna hurt to move KOQ as much as it will hurt to keep him if the goal is more ping pong balls. I think Kanter has proven enough as a Knick thus far to stay.

Courtney Lee’s value is never gonna be higher than it is now. I’m kinda torn on trading him now. He and Lance are great options as vets with defensive mentalities and great work ethic for the youngins to learn from. Plus Lee is playing well. The problem with Lee is his presence hurts our size on the wings. If we make the playoffs, that is gonna be a problem as there are plenty wing combos that are bigger than the combo of THJ and Lee. Running them out there with a weak rebounding KP is fine now. But as the games get tighter and more important, KP is gonna need to rebound better or we will need more size on the wings to have a shot at rebounding better as a team.

Now is the time to contemplate starting Ntilikina. He doesn’t have to get 30-plus minutes right now, but he is the future so Hornacek should see what he has as a table setter. He’s playing well enough to give me faith that he’ll grow in that role, and he’s probably our best PG even though he’s 19. Batum is back with Charlotte, and Philly is tough, so it makes our road to the playoffs harder and less likely.

Missed the game last night, thank heavens! Nice to see Frank’s line not being dreadful for a change. KP on the other hand… and what’s up with Kanter? Is he hurt?

A few weeks ago when we were like 9-6, I posted that we would be under .500 before long. Since then, we’ve won a couple of games I thought we would lose and lost a couple I thought we would win. But we are right on track to be where most of us thought we would be before the season started…a low-30’s win team and a mid-to bottom of the lottery pick. We had a nice run early but now teams have scouting reports on KP, etc. and guys are getting banged up. Clearly we are very fragile…any missing starter severely hampers any chance of winning. It’s going to take a lot longer to get to 20 wins than it did to 10.

I’m not going to get on either Hornacek or Perry/Mills too much right now. Hornacek is still in a fragile position and a prolonged losing streak at this point in the season would not bode well for him, especially given Perry’s comments. The only way that this team will go into full tank mode right is if KP gets hurt. Aside from that, I don’t see Jack being benched or Lee/O’Quinn getting traded until the deadline approaches.

KP’s regression is definitely the most disturbing aspect of our current poor play. I’m starting to worry about some kind of congenital stamina issue.

You need stars to win championships. This is how the last 10 champions got their stars.

Warriors: Durant (free agent) , Steph (draft), Dray (draft), Klay (draft)
Cavs: LeBron (technically a FA, but he only went there because it was his original franchise), Kyrie (draft)
Warriors: Steph, Dray, Klay (all drafted)
Spurs: Kawhi (draft), Duncan (draft), Parker (draft)
Heat: LeBron (FA), Wade (draft), Bosh (FA)
Heat: same as above
Mavs: Dirk (draft)
Lakers: Kobe (draft), Pau (trade)
Lakers: see above
Celtics: KG (trade), Pierce (draft), Allen (trade)

That’s 16 draft picks, 6 free agents (including LeBron on the Cavs), and 4 trade acquisitions. Of the free agents, Durant joined a team that was already the best in the league, LeBron and Bosh went to Miami to enjoy the beach and form a superteam, and LeBron went to Cleveland to go back home. No free agents joined a mediocre club because of its “winning culture” and elevated it to a championship.

It’s pretty clear that the formula for winning titles is to draft stars and then get lucky, either by making a lopsided trade (with your existing draft assets), or by having LeBron join your team.

Looking at the standings, I don’t think it’s too unlikely that our win totals wind up in the mid-high 20’s. I don’t see many sure wins for us out there, especially after getting beat by the Bulls, Pacers, Magic and Hawks. The Bulls only have 5 wins so I doubt we’ll ever be passed by them, and if we win today, the Hawks are probably out of reach. But the Heat, Nets, Magic and Hornets (who seem better on paper but have a 1-10 road record?!) can all be better than us, and so can all the bottom feeders in the West. Finishing 5th or 6th is possible, and as high as 3rd is not out of the question, even via the stealth tank. It’s clear that the bottom feeders are starting to see us as a very beatable team.

@16

I agree completely. We’re 4 games ahead of the top 5 in the lottery with a strength of schedule around the middle of the table (that I don’t think accounts for the Knicks abysmal road / home splits).
Trading Lee and O’Quinn and giving more minutes to Ntilikina, Hernangomez, Dotson and McDermott should make the team a bit worse right now also.

I’m honestly full on about tanking again.

@17

I don’t think he’s saying necessarily that tanking will instantly create a good team, just that the best way to find stars is still the draft, so why not focus on the draft?

No very good team has become good only through the draft, however, there’s got to be a base to build upon and that much more often than not comes from finding a star on the draft. Like I said, if Porzingis was to be that star it’s fine, we have the base already. I’m not confident he is.

But the record shows that recent championship teams were mainly built on players outside the top few picks. We will get a top-15 pick at the worst and likely a #5-10 pick. Then the lottery becomes less tank-friendly. Would we be in that different of a position if we drafted Turner or Jokic? Are we worse off now that we drafted Frank over Josh Jackson or Fox? Look at Milwaukee, their stud is a low ddraft pick, and the guy they picked #2 is largely irrelevant thus far. Philly has gems in Embiid and Simmons, but also struck out on Okafor, Carter-Williams and Noel, and now maybe Fultz.

It’s drafting smart that matters, not tanking.

Drafting high and drafting smart are not mutually exclusive. You can do both.

If you were a brilliant drafter and knew that LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Melo were all future stars, would you rather pick #5 or #6? Because all of them were gone by #6, so no matter how smart you are you couldn’t have gotten one. It is ALWAYS better to pick higher and have more choices than pick lower and have fewer choices.

Tanking is not the goal in itself. It’s a means to an end. It gives you more choices in the draft.

If we could play all our best guys and still draft #1, then by all means, do that. That’s unfortunately not how basketball works.

There should be a human stipulation in the lottery affecting ping pong balls based on factors outside of just one season. For example, a teams consecutive playoff drought and championship appearances should factor in when determine overall Ping pong balls.

Jordan Hill/Steph Curry anyone?

Once you know you’re not a contender and don’t have the roster to he one, you have to act accordingly right away. This whole wait til February and then trade Lee thing is asinine.

@14 good job debunking this kultur nonsense.

@33

That Giannis driving lefty dunk at the end was ridiculous. Gobert was technically in position to attempt a block and realized he had no chance.

I understand your concerns stratomatic but what’s the point of giving guys playoff experience when they just aren’t talented enough to contend?

I never played basketball competitively, but I played other sports and games where experience and nerves were a factor. When you are inexperienced under pressure, you often have a really tough time thinking clearly and executing at your usual level. Professional basketball players are no different, especially young ones. The more times you go through those pressure situations, the tougher you get mentally and the more you learn to play through the nerves. So you want that experience as quickly and as often as possible. It’s a part of your development and part of learning to win.

Every year KP, Frank, Willy etc… are not in the playoffs is another year they are losing in aspects of their development that they will have to make up for later. Even if they are better players 2-3 years from now, they won’t be ready for playoff pressure until later if they don’t start getting experience soon.

Unless there’s something significant to be gained by tanking or we are already out of the chase, IMO, the value of getting seasoning is greater than the value of a few extra ping pong balls that “might” give us a chance to take a “guess” on a draft pick 1 or 2 slots earlier. So I am against tanking until we are out of it.

I still don’t see a rebuttal to @17. Not a single team in @14 strategized losing games in the first half of the season (in the manner being advocated here) at any time for the purposes of increasing draft odds. Not one

the answer is in the vast unseen distribution and the mundane trade off between small probability improvements and modest marginal utility gains. Whenever you have a complex problem like building a winning team and a tiny sample like recent nba history, the sample is going to starve you of real information. what we know with reasonable confidence is that your odds of drafting a star decrease as your pick worsens, but that the distribution will be volatile and the pick by pick gradient is often rather small. This limits the value of sacrificing something to get a higher pick. on the other hand it doesn’t eliminate the value, since on average history is clear that higher picks improve your chances of star catching.

so what are you sacrificing. You are sacrificing the fun of wins today. though many think a marginal win has little value if it means the difference between 25 and 35 wins. maybe you are sacrificing “culture.” this either has value bc it allegedly improves your chance of winning future games or improves your chance of attracting players in free agency. People disagree on whether this value exists, or if so is more than trivial.

So you have small, lumpy leaps in the probability of a large reward against gains that are either quite low reward or very uncertain to exist. this is a difficult problem, like asking whether you should pay another penny to find out 18 incorrect lottery numbers. The answer isn’t going to be available in what the last 10 lottery winners chose to do. it is a hard problem.

@39 I’m convinced that if we had moved up one spot and drafted Curry, we would have absolutely traded him when his ankle issues flared up.

That would have been way more painful than drafting Jordan Hill.

Ptmilo put it best. Every single piece of data we have demonstrates an almost perfectly linear relationship between draft pick and expected production. If I recall correctly there’s some random stuff here and there (3 being better than 2, etc.), but generally speaking there’s no disputing this.

So you have to weigh that against whatever benefits you think exist from winning games in a clear non-contending year. The higher draft pick has empirical evidence to support it, the winning meaningless games, to my knowledge, does not, though I would be interested to see if there is any information about this. You can probably tell which side I lean towards in this debate.

If we trade Lee and KOQ, I don’t have much of an issue with letting the dominoes fall where they may after that (unless we do something truly bizarre like play Noah and Lance Thomas a ton). There’s no logical reason to not seek to move those guys though.

@43
All single examples are pretty poor, but that one involves the Knicks, and I did not say that GSW outtanked the Knicks (straw man?), simply that they had the earlier pick. Is that in dispute?

And, if you’re team stinks, nothing wrong with “tanking” by playing young guys and dealing off the vets. The record will take care of itself.

Clash, you cited the example. My guess was that you were trying to make a point about the hypothetical importance of 1 draft slot, but you can’t really do that without considering the dynamics of that specific draft. Your point was inserted into an argument about tanking to get a higher draft slot, when neither the Knicks nor GSW did so that year and the teams that did never won a championship. If your point wasn’t to say that the GSW was smarter than us, what exactly was your point?

@46
Z-man, it is right there, dead center in my original post. No great master’s thesis, just that draft position is a good thing. There are several currents in today’s thread, and I was not trying to address all of them.

Btw, my example is not about the “hypothetical importance of 1 draft slot.” It actually happened; nothing hypothetical there. The Knicks missed out on Stephen Curry by one spot. Further, it is about the team most of us here root for, the Knicks, a team that hasn’t had a lot of first round picks in recent years, so I think that one example has some relevance.

FWIW, someone else, I think maybe 2for18, brought up that draft earlier today.

do we know for a fact that kp has peripheral vision